Amid record-setting numbers for daily coronavirus tests and deep concern from health experts, Premier Doug Ford for the first time acknowledged what has been warned about for weeks.
"Ontario is now in the second wave of COVID-19," Ford said at his daily press conference Monday, hours after the province revealed that a whopping 700 additional people tested positive for the coronavirus. That beats the daily record of 640 set on April 24, and is 209 more than the 491 who tested positive the day before.
The premier urged Ontarians to abide by public health recommendations, download the COVID-19 app, and to get their flu shot, laying out in stark terms that the severity of the second wave will be determined by the actions everyday citizens take.
"Will we face a wave or a tsunami?" he rhetorically asked, issuing a call to action to the province for residents to do their best. "This is extremely, extremely serious."
The premier also announced a push to hire 3,700 health care workers to respond to the second wave, allocating $52 million in funding to do so. About 2,000 of those workers will be personal support workers and there will be incentives to work in long-term care.
The big surge in cases coincided with over 41,000 tests being done, including addressing some of the testing backlog. Mondays tend to have higher levels of positive tests following lags over the weekend.
Despite these caveats, health experts were alarmed at the caseload and direction of the province.
Dr. Colin Furness, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, called the numbers "disappointing," although he wasn't surprised by them either. He added that the latest numbers reflect where we were at about seven to 10 days ago, and do not yet register the renewed sense of vigilance that has been emphasized recently by public health officials.
Despite the recent moves to shut down strip clubs, limit the serving time at bars to 11 p.m. and reduce the limits on social gatherings, Furness referred to the existing suite of measures as an "inadequate" policy response.
"We're behind the curve," he said of the current state of the pandemic. He urged the government not to lose more time before coming up with a more forceful response. "Losing a week or two can make the difference." Among the measures that Furness would like to see is a complete shutdown of indoor service at bars and restaurants. He characterized the most dangerous occupation in the province right now as bartenders and servers, as they consistently work with people who are not wearing masks.
Furness also expressed some doubt that Ontario is actually in a second wave, as the recent surge in cases does not seem tied to school reopening or colder weather, adding that this may be the tail end of the first wave and the coming months could be worse.
He also added that the recent surge in cases may have a silver lining, insofar as the bad numbers create political will. "One positive consequence is it will give the premier political cover to do more."
One group that would like to see a more forceful response is the Ontario Hospital Association. In a statement it sounded the alarm on provincial trends and urged the government to push the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa back into stage two, saying they are "gravely concerned" about the direction things are headed in. "Without public health measures in place to limit opportunities for disease transmission, Ontario will soon see higher numbers of hospitalization, admissions to intensive care units (ICUs) and more deaths," warned CEO Anthony Dale.
Ford acknowledged in his press conference that he spoke with Dale. Health Minister Christine Elliott added that the government does not want to return to a previous stage unless it absolutely has to, based on feedback from health experts who form its command table.
Despite the record numbers, dire warnings and sober assessments, the government also opened up one part of the economy Monday morning, as casinos were able to open their doors as of 10 a.m.
Suzanne Sicchia, a public health policy expert at the University of Toronto campus in Scarborough, cast a skeptical eye on the decision to open casinos given the latest developments. "We need to pick our priorities," she said. "Do we open casinos in the midst of a second wave?" she asked, suggesting doing so is a bad idea.
Instead, she urged the government to focus on strengthening the social safety net and making sure there are policies so that employees can stay home with paid sick days when they need to.
Furness was more open to casinos, but he highlighted one potential hazard, saying that it would be inappropriate to run the typical shuttle buses, which could be a vector for transmission.