).
We’ll start in Salt Lake where earlier this week Larry Krystkowiak said his team was gonna win this thing; a bold statement considering the Utes have won just twice outside the state of Utah this season. But as an optimist I’ll note that Nevada and Utah share a whole lot of border and osmosis could be in play here. I’m just putting it out there as an option. But if we’re stepping out of the realm of science and back into our three factors, in order for a team to have a shot to run the table, they’ll need some special characteristics (big wins, elite play, hot). First and foremost, the Utes have played just about everyone tight. No one utterly and soundly owns the series and they’ve had a fighter’s chance – if not a victory – against every team they’ve played. This suggests they’re both unlucky and talented. They’re a phenomenal home team and an evolving road team. And by ‘evolving’ I mean they have one win. Alas, Vegas is neither home nor road for anyone. If memory serves, the Utes traveled well a season ago, so maybe that will serve them well. But marching further down our list, the Utes can do something on an elite level. They score the ball at a highly effective rate. They do this by getting all of the buckets at the rim. I effused about it with regards to Delon Wright who simply makes the world better. Or at least shooting percentages. The Utes have the fourth-highest field goal percentage at the rim and the ninth-best two-point field goal percentage. Their eFG is 27th in the nation. Basically, the Utes are flirting with being a highly functioning offense with a highly capable defense. In both regards they’re close, but not quite there. Kinda like a road game.
Behind Emerging Superstar Delon Wright (55), Utah Could Make Big Noise In Vegas. (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)
My second dark horse candidate won last night and I first want to comment on that. I don’t care who UCLA ran out on to the court last night or how the game transpired. We are one day away from March, and if I’m not mistaken, I once heard something about surviving and advancing. Oregon won a critical game last night and they are who we think they are: an offensively capable, defensively inept cluster-mess of talent. Oh, to be green. If we examine this team through the lens of what it takes to be an un-favorite, they just beat UCLA, as noted (I told you I don’t care where JA and KA were), and they hung mighty close with Arizona. Their next best win (beyond UCLA) is over the aforementioned Utes. From the perspective of elite, the Ducks can score. They do it phenomenally well (11th-best offensive rating in the nation and second-best in conference) and they do it from distance. They take just the 248th highest percentage of shots from the rim while hitting threes at the 32nd best clip in America (38.9%). Shooting your way out of defense deficiencies and size problems may seem mid-major, but it’s what the Ducks are resigned to do. Between Joseph Young and Jason Calliste, Oregon has the former mid-major power and three-point shooting to assert themselves into Cinderella’s slipper.
But ultimately this is a tournament being held during a month we coin “madness.” Simply because I know Utah has Delon Wright and Jordan Loveridge and has looked good at times during the year doesn’t mean much. Conversely, just because we’ve seen Arizona dominate doesn’t mean they’re going to bulldoze through the MGM Grand. USC and WSU will not win. Vegas, we’ve spent the last 12 months marching here. Let’s enjoy it.