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david axelrod is cnn's senior political commentator and host of the podcast " the axe files. " he was senior adviser to president barack obama and chief strategist for the 2008 and 2012 obama campaigns. the opinions expressed in this commentary are his. that's where the republican party finds itself today, both in its nominating battle and in its implacable "not even a hearing" stance on the supreme court nomination of judge merrick garland. privately, and to some degree publicly, republicans seem resigned to death in november by fire or by hanging. the prolonged nominating process is merely a means of determining the nature of the execution and limiting the risk to other candidates on the ballot. the normal pattern of gop nominating contests for the past two decades is that the party endures heated primary fights between populist, evangelical and center-right candidates, only to settle on the leading establishment choice. having stoked anti-obama fever in order to score midterm victories at the polls and then failed to deliver on pledges to derail major elements of the president's agenda, the party elite now finds itself overrun by a wave of outrage and discontent. that wave has carried donald trump to the brink of the nomination, a hostile takeover that so horrifies the republican establishment that many are now turning in desperation to a man they dislike almost as much as the prospect of trump as their standard-bearer. sen. ted cruz's entire tenure since his arrival in washington in 2013 has been dedicated to taunting a republican leadership he views as accommodationist. he called majority leader mitch mcconnell a "liar" on the floor of the senate. he led the party over the cliff of a government shutdown in a vain effort to derail obamacare. to this day, he casts his campaign as one to upend "the washington cartel" of insiders and lobbyists who he says have betrayed the gop and the country. now, that same "cartel" is slowly and grudgingly embracing cruz, who is currently running a distant second to trump, as their last, best hope to deprive the bilious billionaire of the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the nomination. sen. lindsey graham's painfully tepid "endorsement" of cruz last week, followed by mitt romney's announcement that he would stand up for the texas senator in tuesday's utah caucuses, reflected the dilemma in which the gop finds itself. in backing cruz, neither of these pillars of the republican establishment spent a whole lot of time extolling his virtues, focusing instead on the man they are desperate to stop. "today, there is a contest between trumpism and republicanism," romney said. "through the calculated statements of its leader, trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. i am repulsed by each and every one of these." so he's for the other guy. jeb bush followed in similarly measured fashion on wednesday. many are gravitating to cruz, arguing, as bush did, that his predictable views are more plausible in a republican nominee than the philosophically promiscuous, cult of personality spectacle that is trump. "i don't like cruz, but i can defend most of his positions with a straight face," one prominent republican leader told me. "i don't know how i go on tv and make an argument for trump." there is a potential bonus of a cruz nomination, this party leader explained. for the past several cycles, conservative activists have complained that by nominating relatively moderate candidates -- romney in '12 and sen. john mccain in '08 -- the party spurned its base and depressed republican turnout. "let's have cruz, and we will put that issue to rest," said this party leader, convinced that the texan's appeal, pitched to evangelicals and the right, is too narrow to command a general election. "if it's trump, there will be no resolution. each side will blame the other for the disaster." but all these efforts to stop trump may well be too late. even if they succeed in depriving him of the delegates he needs to clinch the nomination, his victory in arizona's winner-take-all primary meant trump probably will come close. that would leave the party establishment in the unhappy position of either embracing the front-runner or courting a rebellion among his supporters by dumping him. and while a few weeks ago, many still talked hopefully about swapping in a fresh and more appealing recruit -- say, house speaker paul ryan -- the somber realization is seeping in that it will be hard enough to topple trump, much less bypass cruz at the same time. though hillary clinton, the presumptive democratic nominee, would enter a general election campaign with historically high negatives, she is running well ahead of trump, whose unfavorable ratings eclipse even hers. cruz runs a tighter race in early polls. but as a factional candidate, his ability to grow is very much in question. only gov. john kasich is outrunning clinton in general election trial heats. but kasich has won just one of the first 37 nominating contests -- his own state of ohio -- and netted not one delegate in tuesday's races in arizona and utah. kasich's brand of compassionate conservatism might sell in a general, and he would be a comfortable choice for the party establishment. but he has struggled to find traction within a party riven by anger. the party leaders are prisoners of their base. base politics also has trapped the republican leadership when it comes to obama's nomination of merrick garland to the supreme court. while some opponents have portrayed garland as a threat to the second amendment, his record over 19 years on the federal bench makes it hard to paint the judge out of the mainstream. he is more liberal than republicans in the senate would prefer but as moderate a choice as they probably would get from any democratic president. a solid majority of americans feels that the senate should take up the garland nomination rather than allowing the seat, left vacant by the death in february of justice antonin scalia, to go unfilled for more than a year. but were garland seated to replace scalia, a conservative judicial icon, he would shift the balance of the court, giving it a majority of democratic appointees for the first time in decades. that's why mcconnell has ordained that the garland nomination will not get even a hearing, much less a vote. the right has threatened summary expulsion for any senate republican who breaks ranks with the majority leader over garland. erick erickson, an influential conservative commentator, threw down the gauntlet on my podcast, "the axe files." "if republicans cave, i mean, this would be more the end of the republican party than donald trump," he said. "because, i mean, going back to ronald reagan's election in 1980, the supreme court has been the issue of the republican party. it comes up in every campaign -- presidential campaign, it comes up in every congressional campaign, every even-numbered year. and if the republicans were then to say in this year -- after years of saying, 'the supreme court hangs in the balance; you must vote republican' -- 'hey, we're going to go through with this,' it would be game over." all this has put the six republican senators running for re-election in states that voted for obama in a terrible bind. swing voters in those states, already probably influenced by the presidential race, also would be among those favoring action on the garland nomination. that group includes judiciary committee chairman chuck grassley of iowa, who suddenly is facing a challenge from a former democratic lieutenant governor, the aptly named patty judge. playing base politics -- tolerating nativism, birtherism and promising obstruction at every turn -- could cost republicans the presidency and threaten control of the senate. and if the gop crashes and burns, it will probably get a more liberal court nominee than garland from the next president clinton. for seven years, the gop establishment knowingly and cynically rode the anti-obama tiger, feeding the beast with a steady diet of red meat. now, whatever happens at the cleveland convention, the party elite may wind up as dinner.

axelrod: the slow-motion implosion of the republican party

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responding to rising threats across europe, france on thursday sought to extend a sweeping state of emergency for three months, as belgium proposed tough new measures to detain and monitor suspects who support jihadist groups. the calls for a crackdown came as french prosecutors confirmed thursday that the accused ringleader of the nov.<u+00a0>13 terrorist attacks in paris was killed in a massive pre-dawn police raid wednesday. the death of abdelhamid abaaoud, a belgian militant of moroccan descent, did little to calm european unease about the specter of more attacks. in italy, officials said the fbi had warned of a specific threat in vatican city, rome and milan. in an ominous address <u+2014> echoing the debate in the u.s. congress after the sept.<u+00a0>11, 2001, attacks <u+2014> french prime minister manuel valls said authorities must imagine that the grimmest threats are possible. <u+201c>we know and bear in mind that there is also a risk of chemical or biological weapons,<u+201d> valls told parliament during debate on extending the country<u+2019>s state of emergency. the temporary measure was enacted immediately after the deadly multi-pronged attacks on paris that killed at least 129 people and wounded more than 350. french interior minister bernard cazeneuve warned that now <u+201c>it is necessary to move fast and hard.<u+201d> he said that <u+201c>all europe must work together to defeat terrorism<u+201d> and called for an emergency meeting of the continent<u+2019>s interior ministers friday. some european leaders seemed prepared to sweep aside cherished traditions that protect rights to privacy and civil liberties. in belgium, prime minister charles michel pressed parliament to pass tough measures to imprison citizens returning home from fighting in syria and to broaden law enforcement<u+2019>s ability to tap phones and detain suspects for three days without charges. he called for shutting down web sites that advocate for jihad, or islamic holy war. the moves came as fears ratcheted up across europe of more hidden terrorist cells preparing similar strikes. italian foreign minister paolo gentiloni said italian security forces were <u+201c>working to identify five people<u+201d> who may be planning attacks on st. peter<u+2019>s basilica in vatican city, milan<u+2019>s duomo or the la scala opera house. the u.s. state department issued a travel warning to american citizens visiting italy, calling those landmarks <u+201c>potential targets<u+201d> but also flagging possible threats to <u+201c>churches, synagogues, restaurants, theaters and hotels<u+201d> in rome and milan. gentiloni told the italian state television network rai that the fbi provided information about the five possible suspects. the three-month extension of emergency laws would grant the french government powers to conduct stops and searches, ban large gatherings in public places, and put suspected extremists under house arrest. the measure, approved in the national assembly on thursday, now goes to the french senate for expected final backing friday. in belgium, police searched at least eight homes in connection with bilal hadfi, 20, one of the suicide bombers in the paris attacks, and salah abdeslam, 26, a fugitive believed to have been involved in the attacks but who slipped away amid the chaos. nine people were arrested, including friends and family of hadfi, who blew himself up outside the stade de france north of paris during a soccer match between france and germany. he and six other assailants died in the series of attacks on multiple targets, which also included the bataclan concert hall and several restaurants and bars. [islamic state is losing ground. will that mean more attacks overseas?] michel, the belgian prime minister, asked parliament for new measures that would require immediate jailing for citizens returning from presumed militant activity in syria, where the islamic state has some of its main strongholds. under the request, those on terrorist watch lists <u+2014> about 800 residents in belgium currently <u+2014> would be forced to wear ankle bracelets to track their movements. further proposed measures called for the deployment of 300 troops and more leeway in conducting house raids. michel also called for stronger border controls <u+2014> an appeal that highlights wider debates across the european union on how to reconcile its policies of control-free travel with demands to combat the islamic state and other militant factions. some of the proposed rules, including mandatory registration of all passengers boarding high-speed trains and planes, would affect a significant portion of the population. in brussels, a top magistrate, karel van cauwenberge, said he was concerned that the new measures could be abused by law enforcement. <u+201c>i understand in the fight against terrorism, people want to go far, but we still have to be cautious,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>depriving people of their freedom for three days is extreme.<u+201d> the e.u. planned an extraordinary meeting friday to focus on how to stem the traffic in firearms, much of it coming from the formerly <u+00ad>conflict-ridden balkans, and on setting common standards for deactivating old guns. e.u. officials will also discuss ways to enable border police to check passports against a police database. another issue for the bloc is whether to allow security services to have access to passenger lists, as they do in the united states. [will isis losses mean more attacks overseas?] in germany, where the threat of a terrorist attack forced the cancellation of an international soccer match tuesday, politicians studied plans to deploy the army to aid the police and protect possible terrorist targets, including train stations and stadiums. the proposal was dividing the german government. the police raid wednesday north of paris was in part a response to what french officials thought was a plan to stage a follow-up terrorist attack in la defense, a financial district northwest of paris, two police officials and an investigator close to the probe said. the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief members of the media. president obama, during a <u+00ad>visit to the philippines, spoke by phone with french president fran<u+00e7>ois hollande, the white house said. the two leaders plan to meet next week in washington to review strategies against the islamic state. mekhennet reported from paris. annabell van den berghe in brussels, brian murphy in washington, david nakamura in manila, daniela deane in london, and anthony faiola, virgile demoustier, emily badger and karla adam in paris contributed to this report. the long war against islamist extremism has become more complicated than ever in a neighborhood under siege, <u+2018>it seemed like real war<u+2019> suspected architect of paris attacks is dead, according to two senior intelligence officials

france, belgium move to tighten security; fbi said to warn of threat in italy

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harold a. schaitberger, the president of the powerful international association of fire fighters, spoke friday morning with vice president joe biden, who strongly indicated in the phone conversation that he is planning to run for president, a source familiar with the discussion said. the iaff is one of the most influential labor groups in the u.s. biden is especially close to labor, which could be a key constituency for him if he seeks the white house. schaitberger declined to comment on the call, saying he does not discuss private conversations. but the source said biden talked about campaign strategy with schaitberger and indicated a final decision on whether he would run for president is imminent.

mulling 2016 run, biden speaks with top labor leader

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it<u+2019>s not that americans won<u+2019>t elect wealthy presidents, but political experts say a candidate needs to use empathetic language and offer policies that show relatability to voters. sen. marco rubio tried to do this monday. florida sen. marco rubio officially announced his intention to run for president of the united states at an event in miami's freedom tower monday evening. call him the un-mitt. in announcing his presidential candidacy on monday, sen. marco rubio (r) of florida highlighted his <u+201c>everyman<u+201d> credentials: the son of cuban immigrants <u+2013> his father was a bartender and his mother a maid <u+2013> who was able to achieve an american dream that he wants to make sure is operative for future generations. on monday, there were no mitt romney insensitivities about a wife<u+2019>s <u+201c>couple of cadillacs<u+201d> or about immigrants deporting themselves. as senator rubio commented after mr. romney<u+2019>s defeat in 2012, <u+201c>it<u+2019>s hard to make an economic argument to people who think you want to deport their grandmother.<u+201d> what rubio was getting at back then was the republican nominee<u+2019>s apparent lack of empathy for voters. pollsters measure that with questions such as: does the candidate <u+201c>understand<u+201d> or <u+201c>care about<u+201d> people like you? in 2012, romney failed the empathy test big time, losing the <u+201c>care about<u+201d> question 81 to 18 percent against president obama in national exit polling <u+2013> even though he led in every other category that voters said mattered most in making their decision (leadership, vision, and values). the empathy question is <u+201c>very, very important, and probably in the end is the ultimate criteria,<u+201d> says democratic pollster celinda lake. the question <u+201c>is particularly important right now because voters think politicians are out of touch with their lives. they think this economy is not working for average people,<u+201d> says ms. lake, known for the battleground poll she does with gop pollster ed goeas. it<u+2019>s not that americans won<u+2019>t elect wealthy presidents <u+2013> think fdr, jfk, and the bushes. <u+201c>one does not need to come from humble roots to be president,<u+201d> says margie omero, a democratic strategist with the bipartisan polling firm purple strategies. but, she says, a candidate needs to strike the right tone, use empathetic language, and offer policies that show relatability to voters. <u+201c>clearly one of marco rubio<u+2019>s strengths is his ability to put himself in the shoes of voters or at least use the language that<u+2019>s familiar to voters,<u+201d> ms. omero says. <u+201c>he has a skill at using that everyman, everyperson tone. ultimately, people want to see policies as well.<u+201d> on monday evening, rubio<u+00a0>poured on the empathy and optimism, even as he warned about a <u+201c>diminished<u+201d> america and endangered opportunity for all. he touched only briefly on policy points <u+2013> citing a need for tax and immigration reform, the repeal of the affordable care act, and a robust foreign policy that does not cave on iran or ignore human rights abuses in places like cuba. the youngest candidate to enter the race jabbed his older opponents, saying the country needs leadership that breaks free from ideas "stuck in the 20th century," an indirect dig at hillary rodham clinton and republican jeb bush. but rubio<u+2019>s main focus before supporters at miami<u+2019>s freedom tower, which is a former us point of entry for cuban refugees, was his family<u+2019>s story of opportunity in america, and its universal message. after telling of his dad<u+2019>s long nights behind a bar, and of his father<u+2019>s words to him <u+2013> quoted in spanish <u+2013> that the son could achieve all the things the parents never could, rubio went on to speak of the dreams of other americans <u+2013> of single moms, students, landscape workers, and, yes, bartenders. <u+201c>if their american dreams become impossible, we will have just become another country. but if they succeed, this 21st century will also be an american century,<u+201d> he said, describing that as the message of his campaign. democrats typically have an advantage on the empathy question, say strategists from both parties. but demographic changes in the electorate make it a necessity that republicans improve that performance. the gop white voter base is shrinking <u+2013> a point driven home during presidential election years, when more minorities come out to vote. romney won only 27 percent of the hispanic vote in 2012. the 2016 gop nominee will have to perform in the mid-40s with latinos, says gop pollster <u+2013> and rubio adviser <u+2013> whit ayres. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s important for [republicans] to do better on <u+2018>cares about people like me,<u+2019> because you<u+2019>re going to have an electorate that<u+2019>s going to be around 31 percent nonwhite,<u+201d> said mr. ayres at a monitor breakfast last month. of course, the electorate is big and diverse, and <u+201c>people like me<u+201d> can be, well, everyone: women, evangelicals, african-americans, young people, seniors, business owners, the middle class. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s certainly a lot to ask of any one candidate to be able to understand everybody,<u+201d> strategist omero says. <u+201c>people don<u+2019>t expect presidential candidates to agree with them on every single issue, but that that person has an open mind and that they love the voter <u+2013> they want to hear about the voter<u+2019>s problems.<u+201d> at this early stage in the campaign, candidates <u+2013> and those preparing to jump in <u+2013> have room to grow in their messaging and identification with voters, omero says, noting that none of the candidates are really popular right now. sen. ted cruz (r) of texas, in reaching out to conservative evangelicals, likes to share his faith and tell the story of how his boyhood family was preserved by his father<u+2019>s turning to jesus christ. his father <u+2013> who fled cuba when he was 18 years old <u+2013> eventually became a baptist preacher. sen. rand paul (r) of kentucky, who has a strong libertarian streak, is reaching out to millennials and minorities through casualness in his dress and manner, some unorthodox policy positions, and a message that bashes both democrats and republicans. wisconsin<u+2019>s republican gov. scott walker, who has not yet formally announced his candidacy, talks of his concerns as a parent and as someone who grew up in a <u+201c>kind of poor<u+201d> household, supported by his preacher father and a mother who was a part-time secretary. he flipped burgers to help pay for college <u+2013> which he never finished. <u+201c>they<u+2019>re positioning themselves against jeb bush,<u+201d> pollster lake says. meanwhile, mrs. clinton, too, needs to connect with voters in an empathetic way <u+2013> not so much on policy, but in her manner and personal story. her comment last year that she and bill were <u+201c>dead broke<u+201d> when they left the white house was a turnoff to many. in the video announcing her campaign sunday, she vowed to serve as a "champion" of "everyday americans." <u+201c>i think people feel that she is fighting for them <u+2013> that she has the policies in place and experience and dedication of service to fight for the middle class,<u+201d> says omero. <u+201c>but she, like the republican field, is going to need to continue to connect to individual voters.<u+201d>

marco rubio, announcing 2016 campaign, focuses on 'everyman' credentials (+video)

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**want fox news first in your inbox every day? sign up here.** buzz cut: <u+2022> hillary<u+2019>s faberge egg candidacy <u+2022> o<u+2019>malley: <u+2018>contrasts will become apparent<u+2019> <u+2022> power play: border surge redux <u+2022> 2016 gop power index: christie tries to get a rally going <u+2022> the bull is back hillary<u+2019>s faberge egg candidacy new hampshire is a happy place for hillary clinton. it was there in 1992 that her husband saved his candidacy, with her help, from the sex scandal that was about to consume it. bill clinton<u+2019>s second-place finish was enough to keep his campaign on track. sixteen years later, a tearful plea to new hampshire voters helped her win there and break the momentum of upstart barack obama, setting up an arduous six-month battle for the nomination. on this visit, clinton needs no comeback. there is no contest among democrats, so far. but there is danger. with independent and moderate voters likely to be drawn to the high-octane, wide-open gop nominating contest, the democratic primary electorate will likely be more liberal than it was in 2012. if clinton is going to be again denied the presidency, new hampshire would be a good place for the revolution to begin. but so far, democrats are falling in line. [clinton tours whitney brothers, inc., a family-owned small business, today in keene, new hampshire. she will participate in a roundtable discussion with employees and company leadership.] as clinton tries to have it both ways on issues like free trade, she is counting on democrats to indulge her. clinton<u+2019>s strategy appears to be based on an expectation that her party will continue to treat her candidacy as something rare, fragile and valuable <u+2013> the faberge egg candidate. but the handling keeps getting rougher. as the nyt reports today, a bombshell book is due out soon that makes the case that the clintons<u+2019> massive fortune was amassed in part with the help of overseas patrons, some very unsavory. <u+201c>the book, a copy of which was obtained by the new york times, asserts that foreign entities who made payments to the clinton foundation and to mr. clinton through high speaking fees received favors from mrs. clinton<u+2019>s state department in return.<u+201d> the scandals around clinton continue to remind democrats what they don<u+2019>t like about their presumptive nominee. [washex: <u+201c>democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton is drawing a populist bead on lavish wall street pay packages as she revs up her march to the 2016 democratic presidential nomination, but in some respects the fat-per-speech fee she can charge puts her far ahead of the top 10 highest-paid american ceos.<u+201d>] if at any time democrats start taking her challengers seriously, clinton could find herself in serious trouble. but that is a very big <u+201c>if.<u+201d> none so far look plausible, though former maryland gov. martin o<u+2019>malley is hovering closer to that space. even so, she remains a prohibitive favorite. the chances, though, of clinton having to defend her record and explain her ethical lapses in the context of a primary campaign seem to be growing steadily. can clinton, baggage-laden and with so many unanswered questions really avoid participating in debates? a candidate who still hasn<u+2019>t answered a single tough question or spoken to any reporter a full week after declaring would appear to be living in some denial. [watch fox: chief white house correspondent ed henry reports live from new hampshire.] o<u+2019>malley: <u+2018>contrasts will become apparent<u+2019> npr: <u+201c>martin o'malley, former governor of maryland, says he<u+2019>ll decide by late may if he<u+2019>s running for president. <u+2026> o<u+2019>malley is positioning himself to clinton<u+2019>s left, and even president obama's left. he<u+2019>s for a much higher minimum wage, and against a major trade deal - the trans-pacific partnership. in an interview with npr's steve inskeep, o<u+2019>malley also said he wants to increase social security benefits, even though some people would pay more taxes. <u+2026> last month, he addressed a crowd in iowa while standing on a chair. last week, he gave a speech at harvard. and this week, he<u+2019>s in the early primary state of south carolina. <u+2018>i<u+2019>ve been an executive and a progressive executive with a record of accomplishments,<u+2019> the former baltimore mayor said of the difference between him and clinton. <u+2018>i think contrasts will become apparent.<u+2019><u+201d> [cbs: <u+201c><u+2018>i believe that if you have the executive experience, the ideas that can serve our nation well, and the ability to govern, you should offer your candidacy and then let the people decide. if we do that, then we can be the party that leads our country into the future,<u+2019> o'malley said in an interview with cbs<u+2019> <u+2018>face the nation<u+2019> sunday. <u+2018>but we won<u+2019>t do it unless we offer ideas for the future and break with things like bad trade deals, the systematic deregulation of wall street that many democrats were complicit in and helped get us into this mess.<u+2019><u+201d>] webb bashes iran deal - washex: <u+201c>former sen. jim webb, d-va., on sunday criticized the white house<u+2019>s proposed nuclear deal with iran, saying that the administration<u+2019>s negotiators had given away too much and that would create further problems in the middle east. <u+2018>we don't want to be sending signals into this region that we are acquiescing to the situation where iran might become more dominant,<u+2019> webb, a potential 2016 democratic presidential candidate and former secretary of the u.s. navy, said in an appearance on the cnn program <u+2018>state of the union.<u+2019><u+201d> chaffee stays on hillary<u+2019>s iraq war support - the hill: <u+201c>[former rhode island gov. lincoln chafee<u+2019>s] way of making a name for himself against his newly adopted party<u+2019>s frontrunner is to hit the former secretary of state particularly hard on the issue that was a liability in her failed 2008 run. <u+2018>she needs to be asked hard questions about her iraq war vote and her tenure as secretary of state and where she wants to take this country,<u+2019> he told the hill in an interview. <u+2018>i think she<u+2019>s tone deaf on some of these issues.<u+2019> clinton and chafee both served in the senate during the run-up to the war, but while clinton ultimately cast her vote in favor of authorizing troops, chafee voted no.<u+201d> 2016 democratic power index -<u+00a0>1)<u+00a0>hillary clinton; 2)<u+00a0>martin o<u+2019>malley;<u+00a0>3)<u+00a0>jim webb [+1]; 4)<u+00a0>joe biden<u+00a0>[-1] 5) lincoln chaffee 6)<u+00a0>elizabeth<u+00a0>warren [-1] [watch fox: chris stirewalt joins<u+00a0>gretchen carlson<u+00a0>on <u+201c>the real story<u+201d> in the 2 p.m. et hour with the latest on who<u+2019>s up and who<u+2019>s down in the 2016 power index.] power play: border surge redux the administration says the numbers are down, but with a surge expected soon, rep. henry cuellar, d-texas, tells chris stirewalt that much like last summer, thousands of minors are pouring across the u.s.-mexico border and that the system is becoming overwhelmed. watch here. with your second cup of coffee<u+2026> what would a painting of ludwig van beethoven<u+2019>s fourth piano concerto look like? dusty rose colors yielding to wild, intense slashes of crimson, one would think. how about the talking heads<u+2019> <u+201c>na<u+00ef>ve melody<u+201d>? surly that would be deep blues with warm flashes of orange. right? even for those not celebrating 4/20, visualizing beloved music is commonplace, but very personal and highly subjective. cool hunting brings us the story of artist tim bavington, who is exploring the connection between music and color in a studio on the edge of the desert in las vegas. bavington developed a color wheel that allows him to translate each note in a piece of sheet music to a line of color on a canvass. the results are arresting and will make you say <u+201c>yes!<u+201d> when you see some of your favorite songs turned into art. got a tip from the right or left? email [email protected] poll check real clear politics averages obama job approval: approve <u+2013><u+00a0>44.7 percent//disapprove <u+2013> 50.3 percent direction of country: right direction <u+2013> 29.6 percent//wrong track <u+2013> 60.5 percent 2016 gop power index: christie tries to get a rally going after a weekend of intense campaigning in new hampshire by every viable republican candidate, no big upsets in your gop power index, but a couple of things are coming into focus: first, the two tiers in the top 10 are becoming clearer. as each day goes by, it will be harder to break out of the bottom five and into the top. the other big development from the weekend is that chris christie<u+2019>s long and large investment in new hampshire is going to yield something for the new jerseyan. christie is counting on new hampshire to keep him in the game long enough to make it to the debate state. given the number of independents and even moderate democrats likely to flock to the gop<u+2019>s open primary, christie may get his moment. 1)<u+00a0>jeb bush; 2)<u+00a0>scott walker; 3)<u+00a0>marco rubio;<u+00a0>4)<u+00a0>ted cruz; 5)<u+00a0>rand paul; 6)<u+00a0>mike huckabee; 7)<u+00a0>carly fiorina; 8)<u+00a0>chris christie [+2]; 9)<u+00a0>john kasich; 10) rick perry [-2] on the radar<u+00a0>-<u+00a0>ben carson,<u+00a0>rick santorum,<u+00a0>bobby jindal, lindsey graham what would you say?<u+00a0>- give us your take on the gop field and we will share the best and brightest with the whole class. send your thoughts to [email protected] humble, pie - politico: <u+201c>[f]ormer florida governor [jeb bush] worked hard on this foray to exude humility. he distanced himself from his brother and father, insisting that he is his <u+2018>own man<u+2019> who will roll out his own ideas. he declined to critique george w. bush<u+2019>s foreign policy during one of his press gaggles on the grounds that it would require him to look backward when he was focused on the future. he also repeatedly invoked the birth this week of his fourth grandson.<u+201d> [bush heads to washington state today for a roundtable and reception for his super pac <u+2018>right to rise.<u+2019> the roundtable prices start at $12,500 per couple.] walker keeps it real - wapo: <u+201c>calling voters <u+2018>folks<u+2019> and boasting about his cut-rate suits from jos. a. bank, wisconsin gov. scott walker campaigned vigorously in new hampshire<u+2026>walker<u+2019>s brash, populist pitch was a direct shot at his better-heeled gop rivals and the likely democratic nominee, hillary rodham clinton, whom he dismissed as out of touch as well as beatable<u+2026>walker presented himself as a natural fit.<u+201d> rubio makes iran a centerpiece of campaign - wash times: <u+201c>the florida republican said the best way to thwart iran is to leave unilateral and international sanctions in place. <u+2018>you combine that with a very clear demarcation to the iranian regime. and that is this. if you cross this threshold, you will face military action on the part of the united states,<u+2019> he told cbs<u+2019>s <u+2018>face the nation<u+2019> program. <u+2018>we don<u+2019>t want that to happen. but the risk of a nuclear iran is so great that that option must be on the table.<u+2019> the senate foreign relations committee cleared a calibrated approach to the ongoing negotiations last week, with republicans and democrats unanimously approving a bill that would force any iran nuclear deal to be submitted to congress.<u+201d> [rubio got his groove on to his favorite tunes. or so tmz made it seem. the entertainment site snagged a quick interview with rubio at washington, d.c.<u+2019>s reagan national airport. the florida senator said that he was a fan of david guetta and swedish house mafia. as he walked away tmz added a little music and slow motion to his strut.] cruz<u+2019>s pitch: victory, not compromise - bloomberg: <u+201c>in litchfield [n.h.], [sen. ted cruz] promised conservatives that they could win without <u+2018>making the party bigger.<u+2019> just as [sen. rand paul] had, he embraced the trappings of the setting; his wife, heidi, even doffed an <u+2018>armed and fabulous<u+2019> baseball cap, provided by one of the gun groups. a man wearing a shirt with the legend <u+2018>molon labe<u+2019> (greek for <u+2018>come and take it<u+2019>) stood feet away from a man plastered in dragon tattoos<u+2026>.<u+00a0> they were interested in libertarian principles, and cruz was offering<u+2014>unlike paul<u+2014>liberty without compromise. <u+2018>if you compare 2004, the last race republicans won, to 2008 and 2012, by far the biggest difference is the millions of conservatives who showed up in 2004, who stayed home in 2008, and stayed home in even bigger numbers,<u+2019> said cruz. <u+2018>so how do you win? i think the key question is, you figure out how to bring back those millions of voters.<u+2019><u+201d> [in a national review op-ed, ted cruz took on nyt<u+2019>s friday editorial that called the texas senator<u+2019>s support of the second amendment <u+201c>strange<u+201d> and <u+201c>silly.<u+201d>] rand<u+2019>s brother: he<u+2019>s just like dad - buzzfeed: <u+201c>rand paul<u+2019>s brother [ronnie paul] says that when it comes to ideology, there<u+2019>s <u+2018>no difference<u+2019> between his brother, the kentucky senator and republican presidential candidate, and his father, the former congressman and three-time presidential candidate<u+2026>.<u+2018>the difference is purely in implementation,<u+2019> paul<u+2019>s eldest son said.<u+201d> [ny daily news: <u+201c>kentucky sen. rand paul got the<u+00a0>clinton-bashing ball<u+00a0>rolling early saturday at the first in the nation republican leadership summit, snarking that when the former secretary of state travels, <u+201c>there<u+2019>s going to need to be two planes <u+2014> one for her and her entourage, and one for her baggage. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m concerned that the plane with the baggage is really getting heavy and teetering.<u+201d>] don<u+2019>t underestimate huckabee - nyt: <u+201c>it is easy to overlook the significance of evangelicals in the republican party. it may even seem that their influence is waning as the country rapidly becomes more liberal on cultural issues, and as some republican candidates adopt more moderate stances on same-sex marriage. but the religious right remains the single largest voting bloc in the republican party, and that role has not diminished at all over the last decade. evangelical christians make up 49 percent of republicans and republican-leaners, according to a pew research polarization data set from 2014 consisting of 10,000 interviews. white evangelicals represent 40 percent of republican leaners. they represent as much as 80 percent of the primary vote in the deep south and, more significantly, around 60 percent of iowa caucus-goers.<u+201d> bank shot: carly jabs bubba on <u+2018>hormones<u+2019> - daily mail: <u+201c>soon-to-be republican presidential candidate carly fiorina put a cork in the bubbling debate, started this week by a female ceo, about whether a woman president could control her hormones. 'not that we haven<u+2019>t seen a man<u+2019>s judgment clouded by hormones in the oval office,' fiorina told a crowd of new hampshire republicans this morning - a clear dig at former president bill clinton. clinton, whose wife hillary is now a democratic presidential candidate, faced impeachment during his second term in office over his affair with former white house intern monica lewinsky.<u+201d> [fiorina hits indianapolis today as the keynote speaker for the 25th annual lugar series luncheon.] christie connects - nj.com: <u+201c>gov. chris christie sent a strong signal this past week he's working a different strategy for a likely 2016 presidential bid<u+2026>.[he] appears more interested in letting people ask him questions than simply giving speeches. <u+00a0>[at the n.h. gop summit] christie introduced himself briefly on friday and then jumped right into questions<u+2026>the new hampshire version of the christie town hall was toned down, felt less orchestrated and gave more of an opportunity for the voters who play an important role in deciding the nation's next president to ask what was on their minds.<u+201d> [national review examines the odds against christie as a comeback kid.] kasich <u+2018>more serious<u+2019> on 2016 presidential bid -<u+00a0> the hill: <u+201c>ohio gov. john kasich is becoming increasingly interested in joining a crowded republican presidential field in 2016, he said sunday, although all options remain on the table. <u+2018>i<u+2019>m more and more serious or i wouldn<u+2019>t be doing these things,<u+2019> kasich said sunday on nbc<u+2019>s <u+2018>meet the press,<u+2019> referring to his recent travel to early voting states, including stops in south carolina and new hampshire this weekend.<u+201d> perry builds brain trust - bloomberg: <u+201c>rick perry is beefing up his policy shop. <u+2026> that effort now includes the hiring of the widely respected avik roy, a former health care adviser to mitt romney and a senior fellow at the manhattan institute, who will become rickpac's senior adviser, the person said. also coming on board: abby mccloskey, whose conservative credentials include work as an economic policy program director for american enterprise institute, will head perry<u+2019>s national policy team. brett fetterly, a graduate student at john hopkins university who studied under former u.s. ambassador eric edelman, will coordinate perry<u+2019>s foreign policy shop.<u+201d> empowered by midterm flip, manchin will stay in senate roll call: <u+201c>sen. joe manchin iii will not be taking any country roads home to west virginia any time soon. the democratic senator announced sunday he<u+2019>s decided against seeking a return to the mountaineer state<u+2019>s governor<u+2019>s mansion in 2016. that<u+2019>s good news for manchin<u+2019>s fellow democrats as an open senate seat could prove difficult to hold in a special election. his term is not up until the 2018 cycle.<u+201d> [the dean of west virginia political journalism, hoppy kercheval, has the lay of the land in the state post-manchin announcement.] dana<u+2019>s guide for patriotic parents dana perino describes her experience visiting washington as a child and how that inspired her to pursue a career in politics. in her new book <u+201c>and the good news is<u+2026>,<u+201d> perino recommends that parents take their children to washington, d.c. twice <u+2013> once when they are between the ages of 7-10 for the wonder of it all, and then again between ages 15-17 after they<u+2019>ve learned more about our system of government and have studied more american history.<u+201d> the bull is back a few weeks ago, we brought you the story of the giant, anatomically correct metal bull statue at a restaurant in utah getting turned into a steer. well, it<u+2019>s back. after owner stephen ward heard numerous complaints about the removal he decided to give the bull back his party-hat shaped extremity. ward said his decision had nothing to do with authorities or their desire to have it removed, but he does plan on suing the mayor for <u+2018>lying<u+2019> about him in an interview. the mayor said ward had a variance for his liquor license due to his proximity to a local school. ward denies this claim, and said he has the city <u+201c>by the...<u+201d> well, you can guess what he said. chris stirewalt<u+00a0>is digital politics editor for fox news.<u+00a0> want fox news first in your inbox every day? sign up here. chris stirewalt joined fox news channel (fnc) in july of 2010 and serves as digital politics editor based in washington, d.c. <u+00a0>additionally, he authors the daily "fox news first" political news note and hosts "power play," a feature video series, on foxnews.com. stirewalt makes frequent appearances on the network, including "the kelly file," "special report with bret baier," and "fox news sunday with chris wallace." <u+00a0>he also provides expert political analysis for fox news coverage of state, congressional and presidential elections.

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faced with a growing uproar over the united nations<u+2019> handling of allegations of child sexual abuse by non-u.n. peacekeepers in the central african republic, u.n. secretary general ban ki-moon has suddenly scrambled to announce an <u+201c>external, independent review<u+201d> panel to examine that issue, along with <u+201c>a broad range of systemic issues related to how the u.n. responds to serious information of this kind.<u+201d> ban, who declared himself <u+201c>deeply disturbed<u+201d> by the situation, said on wednesday his intent was <u+201c>to ensure that the united nations does not fail the victims of sexual abuse, especially when committed by those who are meant to protect them.<u+201d> in fact, fox news has learned, ban<u+2019>s action was also urged on him two days earlier by u.s. ambassador to the u.n. samantha power, as u.n. member states dickered in committee over a resolution that criticized ban for the <u+201c>perceived lack of timely information<u+201d> he had provided on the abuse issue and the <u+201c>lack of protection of whistleblower<u+201d> associated with the car incidents. at the time of ban<u+2019>s announcement, u.s. and european diplomats were still offering up alternative wordings in committee to temper the harsher language. ban<u+2019>s spokesman, stephane dujarric, told fox news that <u+201c>the need to set up such a review has been in discussion for a long time,<u+201d> but the specific terms of reference of the inquiry and its membership were not revealed in ban<u+2019>s announcement, though he did specify it would look into <u+201c>the treatment of the specific report of abuse in the central african republic.<u+201d> according to dujarric, both the terms of reference and the membership of the probe will be revealed <u+201c>as soon as possible<u+201d> <u+2013>a fairly clear indication that ban<u+2019>s sparse announcement was intended more as an initial fire-fighting gesture than a fully-planned response to the sex-abuse crisis. another way to look at it is that the u.n.<u+2019>s top bureaucrat was trying to keep the explosive sex abuse issue from spinning further out of control, amid a gout of document leaks, finger-pointing and u.n. investigations criticized as focused on hushing up leakers than on protecting additional young and starving children in the war-torn car from rape, sodomy and other predatory offenses. moreover, the car controversy is only the latest crest in a swelling critique of the u.n.<u+2019>s ability to protect the innocent from sex abuse where its blue-and-white flag is flying<u+2014>a critique that includes a long-suppressed report of u.n.-appointed experts who have decried a <u+201c>culture of impunity<u+201d> in u.n. peacekeeping missions when it comes to such crimes. the latest controversy has been further fueled by u.n. document leaks that raised the possibility of retaliatory collusion by the organization<u+2019>s independent ethics officer; the head of its main independent internal watchdog, the office of internal oversight services (oios); the u.n.<u+2019>s high commissioner for human rights; and ban<u+2019>s top deputy against anders kompass, a senior u.n. human rights official who first brought the central african republic scandal into the daylight. that interpretation was strenuously denied by one senior u.n. official, who requested anonymity, while for her part, the u.n. <u+00a0>ethics officer, joan dubinsky, declined comment saying <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t believe it is appropriate to comment on leaked documents.<u+201d> u.n. spokesman dujarric told fox news that an investigation of kompass by oios for <u+201c>possible staff misconduct,<u+201d> initiated in march, would nonetheless continue in parallel with the still-unformed inquiry panel. <u+201c>any relevant information of a broad systemic nature that will come out of that investigation will be considered by the review,<u+201d> he declared. kompass has already been asked to resign at the behest of the u.n.<u+2019>s high commissioner for human rights, zeid ra<u+2019>ad al hussein. he refused. kompass was then briefly suspended from his work<u+2014>until a u.n. tribunal reversed the action-- in conjunction with his investigation by oios for passing on transcripts by u.n.-collected testimony from children who described their sexual abuse and exploitation by french and african peacekeepers in the chaos-shattered car in 2013 and 2014. the children were aged from 9 to 13. the troops were from a multinational contingent that preceded the current u.n. peacekeeping mission in car<u+2014>the u.n. forces took over in september 2015-- but were operating with u.n. security council approval. kompass got the u.n. report on the childrens<u+2019> testimony on july 15, 2014. he told a french diplomat about it roughly a week later, and in a written declaration has said he told his immediate superior in the u.n.<u+2019>s office of the high commissioner for human rights (ohchr) about his disclosure <u+201c>shortly thereafter.<u+201d> kompass has subsequently made no secret of the fact that he passed on the raw testimony to french military authorities by the end of that month, bypassing his own superiors, who said they discovered the action when french investigators approached the u.n. <u+00a0>it was more than eight months later that he was asked to resign. in a wave of claims and counter-claims, u.n. and french officials have each blamed the other for delays in investigating the allegations, but while the u.n. has claimed that it has cooperated fully, its interviewers only answered written questions from the french military probers. the investigative waters were roiled even further with the publication of internal emails and documents that showed top u.n. officials, including ethics office head dubinsky, along with oios head carman lapointe, zaid, and ban<u+2019>s chef de cabinet, susana malcorra, grappling with how to cope with the kompass actions. the documents were published by a non-government organization named aids-free world, as part of a campaign called code blue. the campaign calls for an <u+201c>entirely independent, external commission of inquiry, with full access to the u.n. as well as subpoena power, to examine every facet of sexual exploitation and abuse in peacekeeping operations<u+201d> and an automatic end to diplomatic immunity for any u.n. official or peacekeeper accused of such abuse. among the documents were emails that summarized a meeting among the officials on the periphery of a march 19-20 ban ki-moon retreat in turin, italy, where they agreed to ask kompass to <u+201c>document the sequence of events that he believed supported<u+201d> a claim to whistleblower status<u+2014>a designation that ultimately is made by the ethics officer, independently of other u.n. branches. other emails document a dispute within oios over who would authorize kompass<u+2019> investigation<u+2014>a responsibility claimed by lapointe personally. the documents also underline a profound confusion among the officials about what they were even supposed to be discussing<u+2014>for much of the conversation at least some of them believed they were discussing malfeasance in mali. click here for the code blue documents. according to a senior u.n. official, the internal discussions about kompass and his case were no more than a routine sorting-out of the responsibilities involved in dealing with an employee who had already admitted his actions while simultaneously claiming protected whistleblower status for them. in the u.n.<u+2019>s case, establishing that status often involves notification of the established chain of command of perceived wrongdoing before going elsewhere with the information, which kompass did not do. at the same time, the official noted, oios<u+2019> investigations division is a <u+201c>mess<u+201d> that is rife with dissention and back-biting, which made its proper functioning nearly impossible. for critics, however, the same documentation is proof that the ostensible independence of oios and the u.n. ethics office in investigating wrong-doing and protecting whistle-blowers is only a sham. <u+201c>the code blue documents show that malcorra and others at the most senior levels of the un were entirely indifferent to the welfare of little boys as young as nine years old being subjected to the most egregious sexual abuse,<u+201d> <u+00a0><u+00a0>argues peter gallo, a former oios investigator who left the organization in march. <u+201c>the very essence of whistleblower protection is to protect staff members from retaliatory actions by management, but in the un, it is now clear that the ethics office and management are on the same side.<u+201d> <u+201c>there should be a solid wall between these people,<u+201d> paula donovan, co-founder of aids-free world, told fox news. <u+201c>the regulations are very clear. they are supposed to be impartial.<u+201d> and when they were joined by zaid<u+2014>kompass<u+2019> boss<u+2014>and his deputy <u+201c>that was completely against the rules.<u+201d> instead, she argued, the evidence points to the conclusion that they were <u+201c>investigating the best way<u+201d> to get rid of him. the propriety of the meetings and emails concerning kompass was also criticized by robert appleton, the former head of investigations for the u.n. <u+00a0>procurement task force, a special anti-corruption unit within oios that existed between 2006 and 2009. the communications are <u+201c>deeply troubling,<u+201d> appleton, a highly-regarded former u.s. prosecutor, told fox news. <u+00a0><u+201c>their priorities appear to be quite skewed.<u+201d> among other things, he said, during his tenure at oios, <u+201c>we did not coordinate with the ethics office - -other than to recommend that they pursue whistleblower retaliation claims.<u+201d> in addition, <u+201c>oios is independent for a reason,<u+201d> appleton asserted, <u+201c>in part so that the process not only is, but appears to be, fair, objective and free of bias and influence. <u+201c>investigations are conducted in confidence so as not to prejudice the process , prejudice the subject, or the outcome, and so as not to create a conflict with the administration that potentially needs to carry on with disciplinary processes following the investigation.<u+201d> the same questions of confidence are going to surround secretary-general ban<u+2019>s newly announced <u+201c>external independent review.<u+201d> a spokesman for the code blue campaigners, for example, <u+201c>welcomed<u+201d> the announcement and then added provisos, starting with <u+201c>no member of existing u.n. staff should be appointed to investigate nor to act as the investigators<u+2019> secretariat,<u+201d> and the notion that the broader the inquiry, the better. to be credible, the spokesman added, the inquiry should include an examination of <u+201c>top members of the secretary-general<u+2019>s own staff,<u+201d> singling out by title dubinsky, lapointe and malcorra. but there should also be plenty of other grist for the panelists<u+2019> work, including a report that oios itself has promised to make public by mid-june, entitled an <u+201c>evaluation of protection against sexual exploitation and abuse in peacekeeping operations.<u+201d> based on recent u.n. experience, the news it brings is unlikely to be good. george russell is editor-at-large of fox news and can be found on twitter: <u+00a0>@georgerussell or on facebook.com/george russell

exclusive: un sex abuse scandal: secretary general ban ki-moon announces new inquiry

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plattsburgh, new york (cnn) gene palmer, the second prison employee charged in connection with the escape of two convicted murderers in upstate new york, admitted he provided the fugitives with tools and other items that unintentionally "made their escape easier," according to a statement he gave the state police. palmer, a prison guard for more than 27 years, told investigators that within the last eight months he provided inmate david sweat with a pair of needle-nose pliers and a flat-head screwdriver, according to the court document. late last month, he said in the statement, he delivered a package said to contain a pound of frozen ground beef and two tubes of paint to the other inmate, richard matt palmer's court appearance thursday was adjourned because he is changing lawyers. attorney andrew brockway said he "simply doesn't have the resources" to defend palmer, who will appear in court on monday. joyce mitchell, another prison employee charged in connection with the escape, admitted to putting hacksaw blades and drill bits into the hunk of hamburger meat, according to clinton county district attorney andrew wylie. she has pleaded not guilty to charges of aiding the escapees. asked whether he assisted in the escape, palmer told investigators: "no. not intentionally." he continued, "matt provided me with elaborate paintings and information on the illegal acts that inmates were committing within the facility. in turn, i provided him with benefits such as paint, paintbrushes, movement of inmates, hamburger meat, altering of electrical boxes in the catwalk areas. "i did not realize at the time that the assistance provided to matt and sweat made their escape easier. the altering of the electrical boxes was to enhance their ability to cook in their cells." the screwdriver and needle-nose pliers weused to fix electrical breakers in the catwalk behind their cells. that area was part of the escape route, an official familiar with the investigation told cnn on wednesday. palmer's statement reveals the complicated relationship between inmates and employees at the prison. on another occasion, palmer said, he helped matt conceal "two-oil based tubes" of paint that he had purchased for the inmate in the catwalk. at the time, sweat was under investigation and palmer said he had matt take the tubes from his cell to the catwalk, where the paint was hidden atop an air vent, according to the court document. palmer said he met matt in 2009 and sweat about five years ago. he said he bought white zinc and white titanium paint and paintbrushes for matt on two occasions, according to the document. palmer also said he bought a large tube of acrylic paint for sweat about two years ago. he said he gave sweat the pliers and other tools on four occasions. the tools were found at palmer's home after police executed a search warrant, according to the official familiar with the investigation. palmer told investigators that as a "favor" he allowed sweat to "change the electrical wiring in the cell electrical boxes," the document said. he said he allowed sweat into the catwalk of the block where the prisoners were housed. brockway declined to comment on the specific charges wednesday. palmer posted bail of $25,000 and was released from jail early thursday. "mr. palmer has been completely cooperative with the investigation," brockway said. "he will continue to cooperate. he's a man of integrity who made some mistakes." according to the court document, after the convicts escaped, palmer tried to destroy evidence of the paintings the inmates had given him, burning some of them in a fire pit at his home and burying others in nearby woods. he faces three felony charges -- one count of promoting prison contraband, two counts of tampering with physical evidence -- and one misdemeanor charge of official misconduct. palmer's june 20 interview with the state police was videotaped, a source familiar with the investigation told cnn. access to the catwalk was not unusual for prisoners. the prison used inmates to do plumbing and electric work, sometimes allowing them to go in the catwalk area, a former maintenance supervisor said. the former supervisor, who worked at the prison for 35 years, said inmates filled those positions when the maintenance department was short staffed. correction officers were also understaffed at times, and inmates conducted repair work unsupervised. the ex-supervisor left the facility six years ago. the former supervisor said inmates worked unplugging toilets, changing lights, fixing leaks and repairing wiring. their work took them inside cells and to the catwalks behind the cell walls for major pipe repairs. inmates sometimes asked prison employees for favors, such as sending a letter or asking for a pack of cigarettes, the ex-supervisor said. inmates started with small favors and followed up with bigger requests, sometimes threatening to turn in the employee for delivering on the smaller offense. palmer said life as a prison guard was as miserable as those of the prisoners. "with the money that they pay you, you'll go bald, you'll have high blood pressure, you'll become an alcoholic, you'll divorce, and then you'll kill yourself," he said. mann described the jail scene all those years ago: "everywhere we go, prisoners are handling knives and power tools," he said in 2000. "even then, that detail kind of freaked me out," he said a week after the jail break. palmer's arrest came as more than a dozen investigators from the new york state inspector general's office arrived at the prison to investigate possible breaches of security protocols that allowed matt and sweat to escape, a state law enforcement official said. the two men have been on the lam since june 6. investigators are going through visitor logs and documents related to prisoner and employee movements at the jail, the official said. they are also looking into whether prison guards on the honor block would sleep during their evening shifts and if that allowed sweat and matt to remain virtually unsupervised as they worked to prepare their escape, a law enforcement official told cnn. as authorities try to figure out what went wrong at the prison, hundreds of law enforcement officers are still rummaging through dense woodland surrounding a hunting cabin the fugitives are believed to have burglarized. authorities said a number of items were recovered from the mountain view cabin, some 30 miles west of the jail, including a sock, according to wylie. while the district attorney wouldn't say if the sock's red markings were blood, he did tell cnn's anderson cooper, "i do know that a dna profile was from one of the socks." the 75-square-mile primary search area is roughly 20 miles west of the prison. state forest rangers describe the terrain as treacherous, not just for the escapees but also for police and other searchers. "the area is heavily forested. the undergrowth is thick," capt. john strife said. "the vegetation is a combination of trees, saplings and brush."

2nd new york prison worker charged in killers' escape

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the election in 232 photos, 43 numbers and 131 quotes, from the two candidates at the center of it all.

rnc scrambles to calm state gop officials

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in an attempt to give moderate republicans, who are disturbed by donald trump, an escape hatch,<u+00a0> hillary clinton has dubbed trump and his supporters the <u+2018>alt-right.<u+2019><u+00a0> in layman<u+2019>s terms, she means you are bigoted, racist, homophobic, xenophobic and a demagogue if you support trump. in doing so, she<u+2019>s defending the republican party of mitt romney who was also called elitist and racist in the last presidential election of 2012. many define the <u+201c>alt-right<u+201d> as opposing diversity and immigration, believing they are superior to all other humans. this is the clinton campaign<u+2019>s vain attempt to thwart trump<u+2019>s unprecedented outreach to minorities for the past two weeks (as no republican ever has). in reaction, clinton<u+2019>s vice-presidential running-mate sen. tim kaine compared trump and his supporters to slave owners.<u+00a0> kaine? this represents the alt-left. the alt-left is a group of people who have nothing to offer. they have no facts to support their opinion and their factual assessments are grossly out of context and disingenuous. this group will blame minority communities<u+2019> problems on the rest of the country. they will use shocking statistics pointing to the harsh realities these minorities face. but, when a candidate like trump begins to share those same numbers and offer different solutions, they attack what was previously their own language as racist and dark. clinton is the queen of the kingdom of alt-left. spanning four decades, a single year hasn<u+2019>t known the absence of a hillary clinton scandal. she wants us to forget that. <u+2018>alt-lefters<u+2019> have no common sense or business acumen so they cheat in order to make profit:<u+00a0> the clintons<u+2019> whitewater scandal.<u+00a0> one doesn<u+2019>t have to look further than to the video of hillary clinton laughing about helping a rape victim (who she knows was guilty) escape prosecution. when it comes to politics, which delivers a lot of personal-power, the corruption is even worse: private email servers exposing state secrets, the selling of access (for tens-of-millions of dollars) via donations to their so-called <u+2018>charity<u+2019> clinton foundation and an avalanche of lies covering up this illicit behavior. clinton is appealing to the moderate-republicans with her alt-right rhetoric. she knows they are scared. i call these <u+2018>moderates<u+2019> rabbits. they stand on the side of the road and nibble on the grass. at the first sight of traffic they run into the weeds and hide. they serve very little purpose and they reproduce rapidly. the alt-left (uh<u+2026>clinton) is the car. the moment she swerves in their direction, the moderate republican-rabbit runs. what is the alt-right? in my view, these are the people who fight back, run toward challenges, speak with candor and a refreshing air of the truth. occasionally, they make you cringe due to a heart of passion (not hate). these are the leaders and influencers who have the ability to cause change. on the alt-left, truth has no place in the journey for power and attention. for example, the democratic national committee email leak (from wikileaks) proves they will even cheat amongst their own ranks.<u+00a0> disgraced chairwoman debbie wasserman-schultz gave us a glimpse of their playbook: attack and destroy all political foes.<u+00a0> the call to action was to attack democrat presidential candidate bernie sanders regarding his faith and religion, essentially casting him as an atheist. the alt-left<u+2019>s only agenda is to disparage their opponent in order to cause fear and distract voters from assailant<u+2019>s own deviant behavior. their biggest weapon is to camouflage the vast array of differences amongst races, faith, gender and cultural backgrounds while projecting their own inherent racism, immorality, bigotry and elitism onto their opponent. the alt-left exhibits many of the traits of borderline personality disorder (bpd): fear of abandonment, up and down moods, unstable self-image, impulsive and risky behavior. these symptoms are the personification of people who consistently use projection. i<u+2019>m certainly not labeling anyone as bpd, but i am pointing out that the alt-left has some of the worst personality traits known to mankind. the <u+2018>alternative right<u+2019> is not inherently <u+2018>right<u+2019> or conservative at all. it<u+2019>s simply a group of people who have thrown political correctness aside and have decided to support a disruptor <u+2013><u+00a0> someone who can break up the political strongholds in washington and return it to the people. the alt-right movement is powered by truth and by pointing out the failures of our country<u+2019>s present leadership. it shares the reality of how grim this country<u+2019>s future appears without sweeping change to our political and cultural behavior. their truths are an absolute defense. it<u+2019>s not racist, bigoted or demagoguery. the only way to deal with the truth is to embrace it or attack its messenger. <u+201c>alt-right<u+201d> is the attack. bryan crabtree is the host of the bryan crabtree show, which can be heard on atlanta<u+2019>s biz 1190.

trump<u+2019>s alt-right. hillary<u+2019>s alt left.

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former president jimmy carter said recently that he provided maps of islamic state positions in syria to the russian embassy in washington, a move apparently at odds with the obama administration<u+2019>s official policy of not cooperating with russia in the syrian war. carter said on sunday in georgia that he knows russian president vladimir putin <u+201c>fairly well<u+201d> because they <u+201c>have a common interest in fly fishing.<u+201d> when he met with putin in april along with other global leaders to discuss the crises in syria and ukraine, the russian president gave him an email address so the two could discuss his <u+201c>fly fishing experiences, particularly in russia,<u+201d> carter said. the civil war in syria, where u.s. officials say russia has bombed rebels and cia-backed groups rather than the islamic state terrorist group, has also been a topic of conversation between the two. carter said he sent maps of the islamic state<u+2019>s locations in syria, produced by the carter center, to the russian embassy so moscow could improve the accuracy of its strikes. <u+201c>i sent [putin] a message thursday and asked him if he wanted a copy of our map so he could bomb accurately in syria, and then on friday, the russian embassy in atlanta<u+2014>i mean in washington, called down and told me they would like very much to have the map,<u+201d> carter said at his sunday school class in georgia, according to a video of his remarks first aired by nbc news. <u+201c>so in the future, if russia doesn<u+2019>t bomb the right places, you<u+2019>ll know it<u+2019>s not putin<u+2019>s fault but it<u+2019>s my fault,<u+201d> he added as the audience laughed. obama administration officials have publicly said the united states will not collaborate with russia as long as it targets u.s.-backed rebels in an effort to prop up syrian president bashar al-assad, a longtime ally of moscow. the administration has said assad must eventually step down as part of efforts to seek a political resolution to the syrian war. <u+201c>we are not prepared to cooperate on strategy which, as we explained, is flawed, tragically flawed, on the russians<u+2019> part,<u+201d> said ash carter, u.s. defense secretary, earlier this month. click for more from the washington free beacon.

jimmy carter offers help for russia<u+2019>s bombing campaign in syria

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the tagline for the 2016 gop race might as well be, "make america misogynist again." on wednesday night, donald trump and ted cruz got into a twitter spat. after a conservative anti-trump superpac ran a gross, slut-shaming ad which used a half-naked photograph of trump's wife melania, trump threatened to "spill the beans" on cruz's wife, heidi, presumably because he thought cruz was behind the ad. (the superpac is not affiliated with the cruz campaign, though it is backing cruz against trump.)<u+00a0> trump then retweeted the below image, which compares a model shot of melania with an unflattering photograph of heidi. "these images are worth a thousand words," reads the meme, implying that when it comes to the position of first lady, all that matters is a woman's hotness. to cruz's credit -- and i truly can't believe i'm giving a man who has compared abortion to slavery credit for anything<u+00a0>that has to do with women -- cruz didn't take trump's bait. instead he responded with this tweet: for trump, and the gop candidates writ large, the 2016 election has come down to a pathetic (and terrifying) rallying cry for traditional masculinity. there have been comments about hand size and comments about dick size and comments about marco rubio's "high-heeled booties." trump has indirectly called cruz a "pussy" and a "soft, weak little baby," and said that romney would have "dropped to his knees" for a 2012 endorsement. as the guardian's jessica valenti put it, trump and cruz have officially "gone full cavemen."<u+00a0>we are seeing the #masculinitysofragile hashtag play out in real time.<u+00a0> as women -- or any group of people who aren't straight, white men -- continue to demand their voices be heard, and that policy change accordingly, we will see a backlash from those traditional arbiters of power. the 2016 gop race has become their vicious last stand. editor<u+2019>s note:<u+00a0>donald trump regularly<u+00a0>incites political violence<u+00a0>and is a<u+00a0>serial liar,<u+00a0>rampant xenophobe,<u+00a0>racist,<u+00a0>misogynist<u+00a0> and<u+00a0>birther<u+00a0>who has repeatedly pledged to ban all muslims <u+2014> 1.6 billion members of an entire religion <u+2014> from entering the u.s.

in trump's world, women have always been objects

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the supreme court gutted a key portion of the law in 2013 and told congress to provide a fix. but only a handful of republicans support a house bill that would do so by specifying which states and localities with a history of minority voter suppression require extra scrutiny when changing their voting laws. in the senate, democrats still can't find a single gop co-sponsor for their forthcoming bill. "i think if someone is judged to have completed their debt to society, then that's certainly something that should be seriously considered," said sen. john mccain (r-ariz.). "i don't think someone -- if they paid their debt to society -- why they can't re-enter society." currently, the question of whether an ex-offender can vote in a state or federal election is largely determined by where the person lives. some states permanently revoke voting rights for people convicted of a felony. other states, like maine and vermont, never strip felons of their voting rights, even while they are in prison. most states do restore voting rights to ex-felons after they have served their full sentence, but the process for registering again to vote can be burdensome. myrna p<u+00e9>rez, deputy director of the democracy program at the brennan center, said that states are taking action on this front and the <u+201c>general trajectory is to ease restrictions.<u+201d> since 1997, brennan reports, at least 23 states have expanded voter eligibility or eased the process by which rights are restored. the issue is also forging unusual alliances on capitol hill. sen. rand paul (r-ky.), a potential 2016 presidential candidate, and senate minority leader harry reid (d-nev.) are co-sponsors of the civil rights voting restoration act of 2015, which would reinstate voting rights to nonviolent ex-offenders for federal elections, unless an individual is serving a sentence or a term of probation at the time of the election. "a criminal record is currently one of the biggest impediments to voting in federal elections," paul said in a statement. "the civil rights voting restoration act will reform existing federal law and give low-level ex-offenders another opportunity to vote. this is an issue that i feel strongly about, and i will continue to fight for the restoration of voting rights in the hopes of giving non-violent ex-offenders a second chance." their bill doesn't have any other co-sponsors. but given the sentiments of graham and mccain, for example, that may be more because it's not on people's radars right now. but that bill goes further than the paul-reid plan: it would restore voting rights for federal elections to anyone, including violent offenders, who is not incarcerated and serving a felony sentence at the time of the election. that appears to be a line republicans won't cross, given that none are signed onto that bill in either chamber. huffpost counted 10 senate republicans who are co-sponsors of at least one criminal justice reform bill, and reached out to all of them to see if they support restoring voting rights to ex-offenders. besides paul, graham and hatch, those senators include john cornyn (texas), mike lee (utah), ted cruz (texas), jeff flake (ariz.), johnny isakson (ga.), marco rubio (fla.) and david perdue (ga.). cardin did a little test recently to see what kind of support he'd get on a voting rights measure -- and he got decent results. during last week's senate budget debate, he offered an amendment to fund an initiative to notify inmates of their voting rights and produce a report on the effect of criminal disenfranchisement laws on minorities. the vote was purely symbolic, but four republicans supported it: paul, lisa murkowski (alaska), bob corker (tenn.) and lamar alexander (tenn.).

the surprising voting rights issue both democrats and republicans support

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the family of michael brown will file a civil lawsuit against the city of ferguson, missouri, and former ferguson police officer darren wilson, an attorney for the family announced thursday. the news comes just one day after the u.s. department of justice officially announced its decision not to file federal charges against wilson for fatally shooting brown last july. in a press conference, family attorney anthony gray expressed the family<u+2019>s disappointment in the justice department<u+2019>s decision and announced the next legal actions they plan to take. <u+201c>we are officially formulating a civil case that we anticipate will be filed very shortly on behalf of the family,<u+201d> gray said. <u+201c>we plan to demonstrate in a court of law that wilson<u+2019>s choice to use deadly force was unreasonable and unnecessary.<u+201d> brown's parents, lesley mcspadden and michael brown sr., attended the conference but did not make any comments. however, their frustration with the department's decision is widely shared by many local officials, residents and protesters -- some of whom took to the streets wednesday evening to demonstrate their outrage. the criticism was further fueled by a scathing report released by the justice department, also on wednesday. the report revealed that the city of ferguson had engaged in unconstitutional patrolling practices that routinely discriminated against african-americans. it also disclosed emails proving racial bias on behalf of ferguson police officials. "[it] really just confirms what many of us already knew and what has been experienced by many african-americans here in the st. louis region for quite some time," st. louis alderman antonio french told huffpost live on wednesday, referring to the report. "some of the specific details were shocking, [but] there's a culture that's been allowed to fester in ferguson and one that's really been experienced by african-americans for years and boiled over last year," french continued. attorneys for the brown family say they hope some level of accountability can be reached through the civil case. meanwhile, french has taken the lead in calling for the resignation of the chief of the ferguson police department. <u+201c>i think some of the specific details outlined in this department of justice report really make it impossible for him to stay there,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>when you have the culture that exists with these racist emails ... the stats alone suggest he needs to go."

michael brown's family to file wrongful death lawsuit

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"there are those who contend that it does not benefit african-americans to get them into the university of texas where they do not do well, as opposed to having them go to a less-advanced school, a slower-track school where they do well," scalia said wednesday during oral arguments in a case involving a race-conscious college admissions plan. the 79-year-old justice, speaking to a hushed courtroom, then referenced a friend-of-the-court brief filed in the case. "one of the briefs pointed out that most of the black scientists in this country don't come from schools like the university of texas," he said, "they come from lesser schools where they do not feel that they're being pushed ahead in classes that are too fast for them." scalia said he wasn't "impressed" that the university of texas may have fewer african americans. "maybe it ought to have fewer. and maybe some -- you know, when you take more, the number of blacks, really competent blacks admitted to lesser schools, turns out to be less." reid took to the senate floor thursday to condemn scalia's statements. lewis, a civil rights icon who marched in selma, released a statement saying he was "shocked and amazed" by scalia. "his suggestion that african americans would fare better at schools that are 'less advanced' or on a 'slow track' reminds me of the kind of prejudice that led to separate and unequal school systems<u+2014>a policy the supreme court declared unconstitutional decades ago," lewis said. the justices of the u.s. supreme court sit for their official photograph on october 8, 2010, at the supreme court. front row, from left: clarence thomas, antonin scalia, chief justice john g. roberts, anthony m. kennedy and ruth bader ginsburg. back row, from left: sonia sotomayor, stephen breyer, samuel alito jr. and elena kagan. scalia was found dead on february 13 at a texas ranch he was visiting. <u+2013> justice antonin scalia was appointed by president ronald reagan in 1986 to fill the seat vacated by justice william rehnquist when he was elevated to chief justice. a constitutional originalist -- and a colorful orator -- scalia was a member of the court's conservative wing. at the time of his death, scalia was the court's longest-serving justice. <u+2013> in 2005, chief justice john g. roberts was nominated by president george w. bush to succeed justice sandra day o'connor as an associate justice. after chief justice william rehnquist died, however, bush named roberts to the chief justice post. the court has moved to the right during his tenure, although roberts supplied the key vote to uphold president barack obama's affordable care act. <u+2013> justice anthony m. kennedy was appointed to the court by president ronald reagan in 1988. he is a conservative justice but has provided crucial swing votes in many cases and authored landmark opinions, most notably in obergefell v. hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. <u+2013> justice clarence thomas is the second african-american to serve on the court, succeeding justice thurgood marshall when he was appointed by president george h. w. bush in 1991. he is a conservative, a strict constructionist who supports states' rights. <u+2013> justice ruth bader ginsburg is the second woman to serve on the supreme court. appointed by president bill clinton in 1993, she is a strong voice in the court's liberal wing. <u+2013> justice stephen g. breyer was appointed to the court in 1994 by president bill clinton and is part of the court's liberal wing. <u+2013> justice samuel a. alito jr. was appointed by president george w. bush in 2006 and is known as one of the most conservative justices to serve on the court in modern times. <u+2013> justice sonia sotomayor is the court's first hispanic and third female justice. she was appointed by president barack obama in 2009 and is regarded as a resolutely liberal member of the court. <u+2013> justice elena kagan is the fourth female justice and is counted among the court's liberal wing. she was appointed in 2010, at the age of 50, by president barack obama and is the court's youngest member. on friday, house minority leader nancy pelosi said scalia should recuse himself from any case before the high court involving discrimination. "it's so disappointing to hear that statement coming from a justice of the supreme court," she told politico. "it clearly shows a bias." janai nelson, associate director-counsel of the naacp legal defense and educational fund, was sitting in court when scalia spoke. "my first reaction was disbelief and disappointment," nelson said. "in a case with this much significance, for a supreme court justice to make comments that amplify the myth of racial inferiority, is deeply disheartening." scalia's comments have also spawned a protest twitter hashtag, #staymadabby, where african-americans have posted pictures of themselves celebrating their college graduations. the court does not allow video into the room or any type of live broadcasts of oral arguments and only releases audio at the end of each argument week. lawmakers on capitol hill have pressured justices to permit live video, with no success. while scalia's words reverberated outside the legal world, they were familiar to some of those who have been following the legal challenge to affirmative action in higher education. one person who had no visible reaction to scalia was justice clarence thomas, who rarely speaks during oral arguments. while thomas and scalia don't agree on every case, they agree quite a bit. thomas, the only african american on the bench, has made clear that he thinks public universities should not take race into consideration. he dissented from a 2003 case that upheld the admissions program at the university of michigan law school. and as for the lawyer who scalia was addressing, gregory s. garre, he took the question in stride and was quick to respond forcefully. garre, the former solicitor general in the george w. bush administration, is defending the university of texas against a challenge from abigail fisher, a white woman from texas who is suing the university arguing she was denied admission based on her race. "frankly, i don't think the solution to the problems with student body diversity can be to set up a system in which not only are minorities going to separate schools, they're going to inferior schools," garre said in response to scalia. garre has defended the university before the court on two separate occasions. like others immersed in the affirmative action debate, he likely recognized that scalia was referring to the controversial "mismatch" theory popularized by ucla law professor richard sander and legal journalist stuart taylor jr. in their book, "mismatch: how affirmative action hurts students it's intended to help, and why universities won't admit it." they filed a brief in the case, as did gail heriot of the university of san diego school of law. "research indicates that students who attend schools where their entering academic credentials put them towards the bottom of the class are less likely to succeed then similarly-credentialed students attending schools where their academic credentials more closely 'match' the typical student's," heriot wrote. heriot was not in court to hear scalia, but she read a transcript of arguments and she defends scalia's comments. "he was trying to articulate the extensive literature that shows race-preferential admission policies end up hurting rather than helping their intended beneficiaries, especially in the area of science and engineering," she said afterwards. "we do ourselves a great disservice when we jump all over people for failing to phrase a question in the best possible way," heriot added. the first time the fisher case was heard by the court in 2012 the justices issued a very narrow opinion and sent the case back down to the lower court to take another look. in a concurring opinion, thomas echoed the mismatch theory. "the university admits minorities who otherwise would have attended less selective colleges where they would have been more evenly matched," thomas wrote. "but, as a result of the mismatching, many blacks and hispanics who likely would have excelled at less elite schools are placed in a position where underperformance is all but inevitable because they are less academically prepared than the white and asian students with whom they must compete" he said. read: supreme court declines to take up ban on assault weapons thomas, and his other eight colleagues all attended elite universities, a point not lost on nelson, who took scalia's comment to also be a dig at historically black colleges and universities. "in additon to denigrating an entire group of students, he also denigrated many of the institutions that have successfully served african americans when a majority of the institutions in this country would not," she said. sign up for cnn politics' nightcap newsletter, serving up today's best and tomorrow's essentials in politics.

audio: justice scalia on black students at top schools

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(cnn) the battle over same-sex marriage may have drawn to a dramatic close friday at the supreme court. but as several justices noted in forceful dissents, the war between religious and lgbt rights is far from over. in a landmark opinion, a divided supreme court ruled that states cannot ban same-sex marriage, establishing a new civil right and handing gay and lesbian advocates a long-sought victory. president barack obama, speaking after the highly anticipated ruling, urged those celebrating to keep in mind that many americans oppose same-sex marriage "based on sincere and deeply held beliefs." those beliefs, he suggested, should remain a protected part of the country's "deep commitment to religious freedom." still, fierce battles over religious and lgbt rights, like the one fought this spring in indiana, seem likely to intensify across the country after obergefell v. hodges. while polls show that a majority of religious americans now support same-sex marriage, many prominent groups -- such as the catholic church, the southern baptist convention and the church of jesus christ of latter-day saints -- do not. leaders from those groups pledged on friday to seek legal means to shield their beliefs from state interference. in his sweeping decision, justice anthony kennedy, who wrote for the majority, briefly mentioned faith groups' right to object to same-sex marriage. "the first amendment ensures that religions, those who adhere to religious doctrines and others have protection as they seek to teach the principles that are so fulfilling and so central to their lives and faiths," kennedy said. the point bears repeating, the justice said. "it must be emphasized that religions, and those who adhere to religious doctrines, may continue to advocate with utmost, sincere conviction that, by divine precepts, same-sex marriage should not be condoned." but more conservative justices and a number of religious groups chided kennedy for failing to mention the first amendment's "free exercise" clause. religious rights (and rites) aren't limited to preaching and teaching, they argued. they also entail individuals' and organizations' "free exercise" of faith, a wide swath of activities that run from sacred ceremonies to performing charitable works and running businesses according to religious principles. "religious liberty is about freedom of action in matters of religion generally," justice clarence thomas said in his dissent, "and the scope of that liberty is directly correlated to the civil restraints placed upon religious practice." he dismissed the majority's nod toward religious liberty as a "weak gesture," arguing that the ruling could have "ruinous consequences." "in our society, marriage is not simply a governmental institution; it is a religious institution as well," thomas said. "today's decision might change the former, but it cannot change the latter." friday's decision makes it "all but inevitable," the conservative justice said, that competing definitions of marriage will come into conflict. thomas suggested that pastors and churches will be confronted with demands to participate in and endorse same-sex marriages. there is historical precedent for such demands, thomas said, citing virginia laws that once imposed criminal penalties on pastors who presided over mixed-race marriages. chief justice john roberts said "hard questions" will arise when people of faith exercise their religious liberty in ways that conflict with the new right to same-sex marriage. what happens, the chief justice asked, when a religious college provides student housing only to heterosexual couples? or a faith-based adoption agency refuses to place children with same-sex spouses? would both lose their tax exemptions? "there is little doubt that these and similar questions will soon be before this court," roberts continued. "unfortunately, people of faith can take no comfort in the treatment they receive from the majority today." the conservative justice said that friday's ruling on same-sex marriage "is not of special importance to me." "it is of overwhelming importance, however, who it is that rules me," scalia said. "today's decree says that my ruler, and the ruler of 320 million americans coast-to-coast, is a majority of the nine lawyers on the supreme court." archbishop william lori of baltimore, the u.s. catholic bishops' point-man on religious rights, said friday's ruling will affect "thousands" of state and local statutes across the country. the archbishop said he could foresee "a lot of legal controversies in terms of the way we organize and run our ministries." most troubling for the catholic church, lori said in a conference call with the media, is that while ruling recognizes religious groups' right to free speech, it doesn't acknowledge "the right to follow our teachings when we are intersecting with the broader society." evangelicals, too, who make up about 25% of the country's population, pledged to fight the legal implications of friday's ruling. "we will not allow the government to coerce or infringe upon the rights of institutions to live by the sacred belief that only men and women can enter into marriage." one of the statement's signees, russell moore, president of the southern baptist convention's ethics & religious liberty commission, called "religious liberty" the "next front in the skirmish in american life." the skirmish will likely endure for years, moore said at a press conference on friday, with casualties on both sides. "one of the most tragic results we could possibly see is an unrelenting cultural war from progressives toward those who dissent because of deeply held religious convictions."

the next battle over same-sex marriage

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hillary clinton and bernie sanders split the votes in tuesday's primaries, with clinton barely pulling out a victory in kentucky, while sanders won a decisive victory in oregon. and the socialist senator from vermont again claimed he can beat presumptive republican nominee donald trump in the general election in november. "if the democratic party wants to be certain that donald trump is defeated <u+2013> and that we must do <u+2013> we together are the campaign to do that," sanders said. despite the split, clinton is virtually certain to be the democrat's nominee and polls are showing a very tight race between her and trump.

clinton, sanders split the votes in tuesday's primaries

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true believer? why donald trump is the choice of the religious right when donald trump stepped to the podium in a football stadium in mobile, alabama, filled with 30,000 people there to hear him spread the gospel of trump, he was overcome. "now i know how the great billy graham felt," trump said last month. trump and graham, the famed baptist revival preacher and counselor to presidents, are not exactly cut from the same cloth. and yet, trump is winning over christian conservatives in the current republican presidential primary. that's right <u+2014> the candidate currently leading among the most faith-filled voters is a twice-divorced casino mogul, who isn't an active member of any church, once supported abortion rights, has a history of crass language <u+2014> and who says he's never asked god's forgiveness for any of it. if that sounds like an onion story, it's not. his blunt talk against a broken political system in a country rank-and-file evangelicals believe is veering away from its traditional cultural roots is connecting. he pledges to "make america great again," a positive spin on the similar tea party refrain of "take our country back." that redeeming message <u+2014> and his tough talk on immigration, foreign policy and the republican establishment <u+2014> is quite literally trumping traditional evangelical concerns about a candidate's morality or religious beliefs. "i've come to see somebody that's not scared to say what he thinks, and he thinks like i think," gushed joe smart, a security guard who was at a trump event in greenville, s.c., last month. "he's religious, and from what i hear, he's going to change the white house back to christianity. i pray every night that our nation will come back to god." it's all left prominent evangelical leaders in disbelief. "trump has made his living as a casino mogul in an industry that preys on the poor and incentivizes immoral and often criminal behavior," said dr. russell moore, head of the influential southern baptist convention's ethics and religious liberty commission. moore offered a searingly blunt assessment of the current gop front-runner in an interview with npr. "he's someone who is an unrepentant serial adulterer who has abandoned two wives for other women," he added. "he's someone who has spoken in vulgar and harsh terms about women, as well as in ugly and hateful ways about immigrants and other minorities. i don't think this is someone who represents the values that evangelicals in this country aspire to." whether evangelical voters <u+2014> who have been so key to national republican presidential success <u+2014> will heed that message or stick with a candidate who seems so anathema to many of their core beliefs will be tested as the campaign wears on. finding trump appeal in the buckle of the bible belt in the heart of the bible belt at a greenville, s.c., convention center last month <u+2014> just down the road from the iconic evangelical school bob jones university <u+2014> the line was long to get in to hear trump's latest sermon against political demons. when pressed, many in the crowd in the key early primary state said they didn't know about some of trump's more controversial statements regarding his faith. on whether he'd ever asked for forgiveness from god for his sins, he told pollster frank luntz this in iowa in july: he went on to describe the sacrament of communion this way: audrey lindsey of spartanburg, s.c., said she hadn't heard those comments, but believed his later exhortations of his faith. "he says his favorite book is the bible," lindsey said, "and i believe that's what it's going to take <u+2014> good, honest christian people praying for this country." but trump, who says he ranks the bible just ahead of his own art of the deal, has been unable in this campaign to name his favorite bible verse or even testament. "well, i wouldn't want to get into it, because to me, that's very personal," trump told bloomberg. when pressed, he demurred, saying, "i don't want to get into specifics." he said the old and new testaments were "probably equal." so, is trump one of those "good, honest christian people"? "that's a question mark," lindsey said. "that's between him and god. i know people make mistakes, and you can change your life. i'm hoping through this situation that if he's not a christian, he'll come to know christ." larry linsin of seneca, s.c., is also willing to give trump the benefit of the doubt. "people do change, if it's an honest, legitimate turnaround," said linsin, who is also considering voting for texas sen. ted cruz, someone with long evangelical credentials. "none of us has a perfect past." 'i love them. they love me.' like with most things, trump is confident about his appeal to evangelical voters. "i love them. they love me," he said in a press conference following his greenville speech. "i am protestant <u+2014> i am presbyterian. i love the evangelicals. why do they love me? you'll have to ask them <u+2014> but they do." the polls so far bear that out. a national cnn poll out last week showed trump (32 percent) and retired neurosurgeon ben carson (28 percent) as the top choices among self-identified evangelicals. in south carolina, a state where nearly two-thirds of the gop electorate identifies as evangelical or born-again christians, trump led carson 33 to 13 percent, according to an august monmouth university poll. in iowa, monmouth had trump narrowly behind carson with religious voters. it's an astonishing development, particularly considering the rest of the republican presidential field. he leads a southern baptist minister in former arkansas gov. mike huckabee, two sons of preachers in cruz and wisconsin gov. scott walker, plus former pennsylvania sen. rick santorum, who won over iowa evangelicals four years ago to take the first presidential nominating contest. bob vander plaats, an influential evangelical leader in iowa and president of the family leader, said many religious voters see a kinship with trump in his targets. "it's not surprising is that the enemy of our enemy is our friend," vander plaats said. "that's the art of political warfare. he's calling out the establishment, the 'media elite,' and he's calling out a lot of people." james guth, a professor of political science at furman university in greenville who studies the intersection of religion and politics, said he, like many, have been "baffled" by the rise of trump. but he echoed vander plaats in noting that evangelicals like that he's attacking a common enemy <u+2014> the gop establishment. "he's quite clearly putting it to the republican party," guth said, "and a lot of evangelical christians feel like they've been neglected by the republican party." the christian broadcasting network's david brody explained it this way in july: robert jeffress, pastor of the megachurch first baptist dallas, wrote that evangelical voters aren't under any delusion that trump believes the same as them. instead, they're just glad he's closer to their beliefs than president obama: when the christian world magazine surveyed 94 top evangelical leaders in july about who they support for 2016, trump was near the bottom of the pack. florida sen. marco rubio was their choice. moore contends that polls showing trump ahead may be inaccurately identifying evangelicals and not differentiating among people who are committed, regular churchgoers. "there ought to be a criterion of character for candidates for public office," moore said. "someone who has a life and a tenor of life that is so obviously at odds with what evangelicals claim to be their values, ought to cause some alarm." trump's lack of support among leaders may be because they are skeptical that he's a true believer. in addition to his past support for abortion rights, his divorces and inability to identify bible verses, questions remain about his moral conviction on abortion and same-sex marriage. and there are holes in his story about something as basic as where he goes to church. trump recently agreed with an interviewer's suggestion that a good supreme court nominee would be his sister, maryanne trump barry, a judge on the third circuit court of appeals. but she supports abortion rights. many of trump's rivals and conservative groups, like concerned women for america, pounced. trump talks fondly of growing up going to sunday school at first presbyterian church in the jamaica section of queens, n.y. when asked by npr where he currently attends, he said he goes to marble collegiate church in manhattan. yet the church says he's not an active member. what's more, marble collegiate is part of the reformed church in america <u+2014> typically considered more of a mainline rather than evangelical denomination. the church is supportive of gay rights, according to its website. vander plaats <u+2014> who backed the iowa winners in both 2008 (huckabee) and 2012 (santorum) and will reveal his pick for president around thanksgiving this year <u+2014> said he thinks trump is "very genuine." he trusts that his conversion on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage is real. but vander plaats noted that trump's lack of support for kim davis, the rowan county, kentucky, clerk who was jailed for not issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples, could be a problem for him. huckabee and cruz, on the other hand, rallied to her side and stood with her as she was released from jail tuesday. "[voters] will hold his feet to the fire on a very real issue," vander plaats said, "and that's a danger issue for him." trump will hold a gathering of evangelical leaders at the end of the month. but it's led by paula white, a florida televangelist who preaches the "prosperity gospel" <u+2014> a belief that it's god's will to financially bless devout christians, something controversial in many evangelical circles. can the support of the rank-and-file last? throughout the summer, trump defied political gravity. after each gaffe that would have been fatal for a conventional candidate, trump has instead only soared. the large field of candidates is helping trump with evangelicals. there isn't one candidate the religious right has rallied around, so their support is split. guth, for one, is skeptical trump's appeal can last. "i think as time goes on, many people in the evangelical community will begin to have reservations," he predicted. "some of that fascination with trump will eventually wear off once they become more aware of his downside." it very well could be that as religious conservatives learn more about trump's positions or another candidate connects as the primaries get closer, their support fades. but moore conceded that evangelicals have not always supported the candidate who lines up exactly with what they believe. but even of those candidates, they were always men who espoused a legitimate moral turnaround. religious conservatives are credited with fueling george w. bush's 2000 election and 2004 re-election despite his past with drugs and alcohol. and one of their heroes is ronald reagan, who himself was divorced. bush, of course, is the quintessential redemption story. while he never expressed publicly that he was "born again," he did point to a 1985 conversation with the aforementioned billy graham. bush wrote in his 1999 autobiography, a charge to keep, that graham "planted a mustard seed in my soul, a seed that grew over the next year." trump has pointed to no such conversion. "as of right now, donald trump is the incarnation of a bumper sticker," moore said. "the support for donald trump is a way of sending message of anger with the status quo, and there are many people angered with the status quo. but i don't think that that necessarily translates into people wanting to hand the nuclear codes to that living bumper sticker."

true believer? why donald trump is the choice of the religious right

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the race for the democratic presidential nomination turned sharply wednesday into a battle for hispanic and african american voters, who are expected to play a decisive role in a long list of upcoming contests in southern and western states. although former secretary of state hillary clinton enjoys a dramatic advantage over sen. bernie sanders (vt.) among minorities, his resounding victory tuesday in the new hampshire primary gives him a shot of momentum that he hopes could turn that tide. making clear how crucial minority support will be, sanders<u+2019>s first stop after leaving new hampshire was in harlem, where he met wednesday morning with the rev. al sharpton and benjamin jealous, the former head of the naacp. <u+201c>if the elections were held today in both those states, we would lose,<u+201d> sanders said in an interview, referring to nevada and south carolina. <u+201c>but i think we have momentum, i think we have a shot to win, and if we don<u+2019>t win, we<u+2019>ll do a lot better than people think we will.<u+201d> swamped by a wave of populist support for sanders in new hampshire, clinton<u+2019>s campaign signaled wednesday that the spectacular loss will not throw her off a careful course set months ago that relies in part on strong support among minorities. with a blast of announcements about endorsements, travel plans and more, the clinton campaign sought to turn to subjects <u+2014> gun control, criminal justice, the water crisis in flint, mich. <u+2014> that speak to african american and blue-collar voters in the states that vote next. <u+201c>there is no change to our core argument, our plan, and you saw that in what we are saying as we look to the states that vote in march,<u+201d> clinton press secretary brian fallon said wednesday. the sanders campaign, meanwhile, predicted that once voters in the next round of nominating states tune in, his message of economic fairness will resonate regardless of race. sanders has argued that many of his initiatives <u+2014> including a higher minimum wage, paid family leave and free college tuition <u+2014> should be more appealing to african americans and latinos, given the greater share of economically struggling families in those communities. jeff weaver, sanders<u+2019>s campaign manager, said that internal polling is starting to show movement in sanders<u+2019>s direction among younger voters of all backgrounds in upcoming states. <u+201c>younger voters are clearly the strongest group for senator sanders, and this is sort of reminiscent of the obama campaign <u+2014> where younger voters were the president<u+2019>s strongest bloc as well <u+2014> across racial lines,<u+201d> weaver said. clinton had no public appearances wednesday. she and sanders meet for another democratic debate on thursday in milwaukee. clinton is expected to strike a more aspirational, optimistic tone that is a tacit acknowledgment that simply knocking down sanders<u+2019>s ideas as unrealistic was not enough. a chief complaint among clinton backers appalled by her 22-point loss tuesday in a state with long and fond ties to the clinton political franchise is that she isn<u+2019>t getting through to voters. exit polling and other data show that clinton did not connect in new hampshire <u+2014> not with men, not with women, not with the young and not with blue-collar voters. the next two democratic contests will come in nevada, where 30 percent of the democratic electorate in 2008 was black or hispanic, and in south carolina, where 55 percent of the 2008 democratic electorate was black. in march, another slew of southern states with large african american populations will vote. clinton has long been thought to have a southern <u+201c>firewall<u+201d> <u+2014> an insurmountable advantage with minority voters. sanders has never demonstrated an ability to attract minorities; his strong showing in iowa and his trouncing of clinton in new hampshire were in states, like his home state of vermont, where more than 90 percent of the population is white. an nbc news-wall street journal-marist poll taken in january in south carolina showed clinton with the support of 74<u+00a0>percent of black voters, compared with 17<u+00a0>percent for sanders. tad devine, a strategist for the sanders campaign, said that sanders need not win a majority of black voters in south carolina in order to put together a coalition with white voters to beat clinton. in south carolina, the sanders campaign is paying <u+201c>dozens<u+201d> of canvassers $15 an hour to go door to door, primarily in the black community, to pitch his candidacy, weaver said. cornel west, the noted black scholar who has fallen out of favor with many african americans because of his sharp criticism of president obama, also has campaigned extensively in south carolina for sanders. atlanta rapper killer mike, another obama critic, has helped spread sanders<u+2019>s message in appearances, online discussions and social-media posts. clinton has been quietly organizing in the state since april and has hosted 1,900 grass-roots events. during a recent weekend of campaigning, aides say the campaign contacted 100,000 voters through canvassing and phone banks. mothers who have lost children to gun violence, including some who were shot by police officers, are planning to campaign on her behalf in south carolina and other southern states, and celebrities will be enlisted to visit barbershops and beauty salons to talk up clinton<u+2019>s campaign. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re not fighting to win a certain percentage of the vote, we<u+2019>re fighting to earn the support of the community, we<u+2019>re fighting for every last vote,<u+201d> said marlon marshall, clinton<u+2019>s director of states and political engagement. <u+201c>she has a multi-decade history of fighting for the african american community. throughout this entire campaign we<u+2019>ve seen her go into these communities, have these conversations, talking about issues that matter to the african american community. she<u+2019>s not just now doing this, she<u+2019>s done this her whole life, and that<u+2019>s an important point to make.<u+201d> rep. james e. clyburn (d-s.c.) predicted that clinton<u+2019>s loss in new hampshire would not shake her support in his state. <u+201c>it won<u+2019>t matter a whole lot,<u+201d> he said even before the polls had closed in new hampshire on tuesday. he said there have been some signs of support for sanders on college campuses around the state. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s not been a big surge. the reliable primary voters that i know don<u+2019>t seem to have shifted at all.<u+201d> clinton<u+2019>s african american allies unleashed a wave of criticism against sanders on wednesday, strongly criticizing him for being <u+201c>absent<u+201d> on issues that matter to black voters <u+2014> but demonstrating an awareness that she may be vulnerable, in the wake of new hampshire, to an erosion of support. <u+201c>bernie sanders as mayor, as a member of the house, as a member of the united states senate, has been missing in action on issues that are important to the african americans,<u+201d> rep. hakeem jeffries (d-n.y.) said on a conference call with reporters. in addition to rolling out the support of african american celebrities such as angela bassett this week, clinton landed the endorsement of the south carolina house democratic leader, j. todd rutherford, who joined in the criticism of sanders. rutherford faulted sanders for voting in favor of a 1994 violent crime control and law enforcement act, which has been blamed for helping usher in an era of mass incarceration. bill clinton, who signed the bill into law as president, has expressed regret for the consequences of the legislation. jaime harrison, chairman of the south carolina democratic party, is remaining neutral because of his post. he pointed squarely to the reasons that african american and female support is crucial to a democratic victory in his state. in the most recent competitive democratic primary, in 2008, 61 percent of the electorate was female, and 55 percent was african american, harrison said. that combination means that the key voting bloc in south carolina are black women. <u+201c>if you want to know who is going to win, you need to talk to african american women,<u+201d> harrison said. for now, they are predisposed to support clinton. if sanders has any chance of making it close or of winning, harrison said, <u+201c>he has to cut into her support among african american women.<u+201d> hillary clinton<u+2019>s poor showing with young voters and with women of nearly every age in both iowa and new hampshire gives many of her allies shivers, and sanders<u+2019>s inroads among african americans have raised alarm. sanders has won the support of jealous, the former naacp head, and he met wednesday with him and sharpton, the civil rights leader. sharpton said he will wait until a scheduled meeting with clinton next week before issuing an endorsement. <u+201c>my generation was the first generation raised in the era of mass incarceration,<u+201d> jealous told reporters after the meeting. <u+201c>my children are now 3 and 10, and i do not intend for my children to be food for our prisons the way that my brothers and sisters have been. there is no candidate in this race who is fiercer in standing up for those who need allies in the struggle than bernie sanders.<u+201d> sanders also scored surprise support wednesday from influential african american writer ta-nehisi coates, who had earlier excoriated sanders for not supporting reparations for slavery. the congressional black caucus is moving quickly to defend clinton. the cbc<u+2019>s leaders said they will appear thursday morning at a club adjacent to the democratic national committee to endorse clinton for president, through the cbc pac, and then send many of their members to states, including south carolina, where black voters are crucial. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s one thing to endorse and do nothing. it<u+2019>s another thing to endorse and to go to work,<u+201d> said rep. gregory w. meeks (d-n.y.), chairman of the cbc pac. meeks said that 90 percent of the 20-member board of the political action committee voted to endorse clinton, none voted for sanders and a few, including clyburn, the no. 3 house democratic leader, abstained because they had not yet endorsed in the race. clyburn, in an interview with msnbc<u+2019>s <u+201c>andrea mitchell reports,<u+201d> reiterated earlier comments to the washington post that he is considering endorsing clinton after previously saying he would stay neutral until the primary vote in his state. sanders<u+2019>s rise, particularly among young voters, even young african american voters, has struck a nerve with veteran members of the caucus who think these voters are behaving naively. <u+201c>many of these are first-time voters, and senator sanders<u+2019>s message resonates with the younger generation because of the promises that he is making,<u+201d> said rep. g.k. butterfield (d-n.c.), chairman of the caucus. <u+201c>but mrs. clinton and others are going to challenge the message by suggesting that it is unrealistic to believe that we can accomplish all of the things that senator sanders proposes.<u+201d> scott clement, paul kane and vanessa williams contributed to this report.

democrats scramble for pivotal bloc in the next 2 contests: minority voters

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pope francis kicked off his second united states stop in new york city with a thursday evening prayer at st. patrick's cathedral, one of the nation's best-known churches. thousands of people lined up along fifth avenue to greet him with cheers as he made his way in his open-sided popemobile to the center of one of the nation's largest roman catholic archdioceses. the cathedral's bells pealed as francis waved to and blessed the crowd, even giving the occasional thumbs-up. new york gov. andrew cuomo , mayor bill de blasio, u.s. sen. charles schumer and other dignitaries greeted him on the cathedral steps. pope francis landed in new york city thursday afternoon to begin the next part of his visit to the u.s., which will take him from the united nations to a school in east harlem. during the evening prayer, francis thanked american nuns for their strength and courage in a deeply meaningful acknowledgement of their service following a years-long vatican crackdown. u.s. priests and sisters erupted in applause when francis told american nuns that he wanted to thank them for their strength, spirit and courage and to "tell you that i love you very much." it was the strongest expression yet of his gratitude for american nuns after the vatican under his predecessor ordered an overhaul of the largest umbrella group of u.s. sisters, accusing them of straying from church teaching. the nuns denied the charge and received an outpouring of support from american catholics, and the crackdown ended this year, two years early, with no major changes. francis also expressed his solidarity with muslims following the hajj stampede in saudi arabia, where more than 700 people were killed. francis said he wanted to offer a "sentiment of closeness in light of the tragedy" that the muslim people had suffered on thursday. he also raised the clergy sex-abuse crisis, by consoling clergy for the suffering the scandal had caused them. francis told members of religious orders and diocesan priests that he was aware they had "suffered greatly" by having to "bear the shame" of clergy who had molested children. he thanked them for their faithful service to the church in the face of the scandal. a group of 200 people welcomed francis as his chartered american airlines plane touched down at john f. kennedy international airport shortly after 5 p.m. thursday. brooklyn bishop nicholas dimarzio, five catholic schoolchildren and other guests gathered at the airport while snipers stood atop police vehicles while a high school band played a rendition of frank<u+00a0>sinatra's<u+00a0><u+201c>new york, new york.<u+201d> cardinal francis dolan of new york greeted francis with a hug and a kiss as he arrived onto the tarmac. francis then handed out mass cards and spoke with onlookers after catholic schoolchildren presenting him with a bouquet and collection of prayers written by students in the city's 86 catholic schools. after landing at the airport, francis traveled to manhattan by helicopter and hopped into a fiat hatchback, traveling in the same style as he did while in washington. over 40 hours in new york, francis will address world leaders at the united nations, participate in an interfaith service at the sept. 11 memorial and celebrate mass at madison square garden. he will visit a school in harlem and take drive through central park. it<u+2019>s the first papal trip to new york since pope benedict xvi visited in april 2008. the associated press contributed to this report.

pope francis arrives in new york city for second stop on us trip

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as accused boston marathon bomber dzhokhar tsarnaev goes on trial monday few doubt the outcome of the first phase of the two-phase trial. it's the second, the sentencing phase, including a possible death sentence, that has been the subject of behind the scenes discussions. federal prosecutors and defense attorneys for tsarnaev have held talks on a possible plea agreement but failed to reach one, u.s. officials familiar with the talks say. the discussions in recent months have centered on the possibility of tsarnaev pleading guilty and receiving a life sentence without parole, according to the officials. but the talks have reached an impasse because the justice department has resisted removing the death penalty as a possibility, these officials say. a spokeswoman for the u.s. attorney in boston declined to comment. attorney judy clarke, who represents tsarnaev, didn't respond to a request for comment. the outcome so far is unusual for clarke who helped negotiate plea deals that saved the lives of notorious criminals including 9/11 plotter zacarias moussaoui, unabomber ted kaczynski and jared loughner, who carried out the mass shooting that killed six and gravely injured former congresswoman gabrielle giffords. related: a tale of two tsarnaevs on eve of trial in boston marathon bombing jury selection is set to begin monday in the case, with tsarnaev facing 30 counts including detonating a weapon of mass destruction. three people died and 264 people were injured in the april 15 attacks. attorney general eric holder is a critic of the death penalty, but he authorized seeking capital punishment in this case saying tsarnaev acted in "an especially heinous, cruel and depraved manner." he also cited a seeming lack of remorse. tsnarnaev's brother tamerlan was killed in a confrontation with police during the manhunt that followed the bombing. among the evidence prosecutors are expected to use against him are statements claiming to be angry at u.s. wars that killed muslims in afghanistan and iraq. there are several reasons to pursue a plea deal, including to spare survivors and victim families from having to relive the trauma of the bombings, and to save financial costs in a case that has already cost millions of dollars. the case's toll on victim families has been at issue in the case. prosecutors tried to bar tsarnaev from being able to view autopsy photos of victims, claiming it would cause new suffering to their survivors. a judge rejected that request. boston us attorney carmen ortiz has overseen the plea discussions. any decision to remove the death penalty as a possibility would have approval from holder. the attorney general friday also authorized prosecutors to seek the death penalty against the man accused of shooting a tsa employee at los angeles airport in 2013.

boston bombing trial plea deal fails

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secretary of state john kerry said on sunday that he will go to capitol hill this week to brief congressional members about the obama administration<u+2019>s iran nuclear deal and urged opponents to <u+201c>hold their fire<u+201d> until they see a final deal later his year. the administration has since reaching the april 1 deal urged the senate not to vote on legislation that would require congressional approval to ease sanctions on iran, as tehran curtails its uranium-enrichment program. and president obama has vowed to veto such legislation, if passed. kerry said he would brief house members on monday and senators on tuesday. the senate foreign relations committee is set to take up the legislation on the same day. the administration should be free to negotiate without interference until the june 30 deadline for a final agreement, kerry said on cbs' "face the nation." "we've earned the right to be able to try and complete this without interference, and certainly without partisan politics," kerry said. the senate bill, by committee chairman sen. bob corker, r-tenn., and sen. bob menendez, d-n.j., would give congress a 60-day review and a say on any deal. under the bill as currently written, obama could unilaterally lift or ease any sanctions that were imposed on iran through presidential action. but congress could block the president from providing iran with any relief from congressional sanctions. senators on both sides of the issue have introduced more than 50 amendments to the legislation. opponents of the deal say they don<u+2019>t know the exact details because both sides are giving different interpretations. among their concerns are the guidelines for inspecting iran's nuclear sites and when the sanctions will be lifted. kerry told nbc<u+2019>s <u+201c>meet the press<u+201d> the united states won<u+2019>t sign a bad or ambiguous deal. <u+201c>if there<u+2019>s not an understanding, we won<u+2019>t sign it,<u+201d> he said. the associated press contributed to this report.

kerry tells capitol hill critics of iran nuclear deal to 'hold their fire' until final deal

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cruz, a conservative lawmaker from texas, won with 28 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for businessman trump in the republican contest. marco rubio, a u.s. senator from florida, came in third with 23 percent, easily making him the leader among establishment republican candidates. clinton, a former secretary of state, and sanders, a self-described democratic socialist u.s. senator from vermont, both came in at roughly 50 percent with 95 percent of the state's precincts reporting results. sanders declared the results a tie. former maryland governor martin o'malley, who had trouble gaining any traction in the democratic race, suspended his campaign. he took third place with less than one percent. cruz's win and rubio's strong showing could dent the momentum for trump, whose candidacy has alarmed the republican establishment and been marked by controversies such as his calls for a temporary ban on muslims entering the united states. "tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across iowa and all across this great nation," cruz, 45, said during a victory speech that lasted more than 30 minutes. buoyed by evangelical voters, cruz thanked god. he said the results showed that the nominee would not be chosen by the media, the washington establishment or lobbyists. trump, 69, congratulated cruz and said he still expected to win the republican nomination for the nov. 8 election. "i'm just honored, i'm really honored," trump told supporters. he said he looked forward to the next contest next week in new hampshire, where polls show him ahead. clinton, 68, said she was breathing a "big sigh of relief" after the results. she lost to then-senator barack obama in 2008. the former first lady congratulated sanders and did not declare victory in her remarks. "it is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas," she said. sanders, 74, said he and clinton were in a "virtual tie" and said he was overwhelmed. "nine months ago, we came to this beautiful state, we had no political organization, we had no money, we had no name recognition, and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the united states of america," he said. the results could shift momentum in both races. clinton hoped for a strong finish against sanders to vanquish his insurgent candidacy. sanders is leading in opinion polls in new hampshire. rubio's third-place finish established him as the republican mainstream alternative to trump and cruz. "i am grateful to you, iowa. you believed in me when others didn't think it was possible," rubio, 44, said. the results could have ramifications going forward. "there is now blood in the water for donald trump," said republican strategist ron bonjean. "ted cruz proved he could successfully beat back trump attacks because he had a great ground game and identified well with evangelical voters." former arkansas governor mike huckabee said he was suspending his campaign for the republican party nomination. huckabee won the iowa caucus in 2008. iowa has held the first nominating contests, called caucuses, since the early 1970s, giving it extra weight in the u.s. electoral process that can translate into momentum for winning candidates. the caucuses are voter gatherings that take place in 1,100 schools, churches and other public locations across the midwestern state. the 2016 election is shaping up to be the year of angry voters as disgruntled americans worry about issues such as immigration, terrorism, income inequality and healthcare, fueling the campaigns of trump, sanders and cruz. market reaction in asia to the results was muted, with u.s. stock futures down around half a percent. "financial markets might be more comfortable with hillary (clinton) than bernie (sanders)," said sean callow, a strategist at westpac bank in australia. "there would have to be at least some jitters over the guy who plans to break up the big banks. but it's probably too early to expect the u.s. presidential race to have an impact on the u.s. stock market."

ted cruz wins iowa caucus, clinton holds narrow lead over sanders

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a verdict in 2017 could have sweeping consequences for tech startups.

hillary's policies: where's the beef?

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many republicans claim that president obama is among the most polarizing presidents in modern history. if the results of a new gallup survey measuring his approval rating are any indication, they might be right. the president's overall approval rating for his just finished sixth year in office stood at 42.6 percent, according to gallup. that's well below bill clinton's or ronald reagan's sixth-year average (63.8 percent and 59.9 percent, respectively). even so, obama's average for the year is still ahead of richard nixon (25.4 percent), who was by this point in his presidency mired in watergate; george w. bush (37.3 percent); or harry s. truman (38.6 percent). but another measure that looks at how republicans and democrats view presidential performance shows that obama is on track to be the most polarizing president ever, nudging out his predecessor with an average 70-point gap between the political parties. "both bush and obama were elected with hopes of unifying the country. however, the opposite has happened, at least in the way americans view the job the president is doing, with presidential evaluations more divided along party lines than ever before, gallup notes. "these increasingly partisan views of presidents may have as much to do with the environment in which these presidents have governed as with their policies, given 24-hour news coverage of what they do and increasingly partisan news and opinion sources on television, in print and online," the polling organization says. in his sixth year in office, 79 percent of democrats approve of obama's performance, while just 9 percent of republicans do. george w. bush's numbers were exactly reversed in year six of his presidency (79 percent of republicans approval vs. 9 percent for democrats). obama and bush had their most polarized approval ratings in their fourth years in office, both with a 76 percentage point gap between republicans and democrats for the final year of their first term (although bush had slightly higher approval from both parties, the gap was still the same). as gallup points out, the fourth year is typically the most polarized in a president's due to it being an election year. according to gallup: "each of obama's six years in office rank among the 10 most polarized in the last 60 years, with george w. bush holding the other four spots. bush's most polarized years were his fourth through seventh years in office, after the rally in support for him following the 9/11 terror attacks had faded. clearly, political polarization has reached new heights in recent years, under a republican and a democratic president."

polarization vortex: obama, bush approval shows widest partisan gap

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sen. bernie sanders said sunday that he plans to meet tuesday night with hillary clinton about her agenda as the presumptive democratic presidential nominee and will make other decisions about the future of his campaign after that. <u+201c>i simply want to get a sense of what kind of platform she will be supporting, whether she will be vigorous in standing up for working families and the middle class, moving aggressively in climate change, health care for all, making public colleges and universities tuition-free,<u+201d> sanders (i-vt.) said during an appearance on nbc<u+2019>s <u+201c>meet the press.<u+201d> <u+201c>and after we have that kind of discussion, and after we can determine whether or not we are going to have a strong and progressive platform, i will be able to make other decisions.<u+201d> sanders told host chuck todd that he will have more than 1,900 delegates at the convention and that he needs to determine <u+201c>what kind of agenda there will be if secretary clinton gets elected, if she wins the election.<u+201d> during a separate tv appearance sunday, sanders said he thinks it is <u+201c>very unlikely<u+201d> that clinton would pick him as her running mate. asked about the prospect of sen. elizabeth warren (d-mass.) filling that slot, sanders said on abc<u+2019>s <u+201c>this week with george stephanopoulos<u+201d> that he is a <u+201c>great admirer<u+201d> of warren. when asked whether<u+00a0>clinton is capable of leading a <u+201c>political revolution<u+201d> <u+2014> a phrase that has motivated sanders<u+2019>s campaign <u+2014> sanders said she was not, but that she could implement some solid progressive policies. <u+201c>will she got as far as i would like her to go? no, she won<u+2019>t,<u+201d> sanders said. <u+201c>meet the press<u+201d> and <u+201c>this week<u+201d> were two of three<u+00a0>morning talk shows on which sanders appeared<u+00a0>sunday. he was also interviewed by cbs's "face the nation." [how bernie sanders<u+2019>s day in washington got eclipsed by democratic unity] the interviews are sanders<u+2019>s<u+00a0>first since he<u+00a0>met with president obama on thursday, the same day that obama, vice president biden and warren endorsed clinton. the senator from vermont said thursday that he plans to compete in the final democratic primary of the year, tuesday in the district, making good on his pledge to stay in the race until all voters have had a chance to weigh in on the nomination. sanders previously vowed to stay in the race until the democratic convention in philadelphia next month, in a last-ditch attempt to win the nomination by flipping the allegiances of hundreds of superdelegates who<u+2019>ve previously announced their support for clinton, the party<u+2019>s presumptive nominee. he made no mention of that strategy during his interviews on sunday morning. later sunday, sanders met at his home in burlington, vt., with a few dozen leading supporters. speaking to the press, he<u+00a0>did not say he was exiting the race, however. "are we going to take our campaign for transforming democratic party into the convention? absolutely," he told reporters. he also said he is "very good at arithmetic." as of sunday, clinton had accumulated 2,784 delegates, including superdelegates, exceeding<u+00a0>the amount needed to clinch the nomination by more than 400, according to the latest associated press tally, which put sanders<u+2019>s total at 1,877. to have a shot at wresting the nomination from clinton, sanders would need to flip the allegiances at least 400 of the 581 superdelegates who have announced their support for clinton <u+2014> about 70 percent of them.

sanders plans tuesday meeting with clinton to discuss agenda, calls vp slot <u+2018>very unlikely<u+2019>

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army pfc. bowe bergdahl was fed up. he was five weeks into a deployment in southeastern afghanistan and frustrated with his mission and his leaders. he and his fellow soldiers weren<u+2019>t going after the taliban as aggressively as he wanted, and his sense of disillusion added to the disgust for the army that he had begun developing while still in basic training. looking to make a stand, bergdahl hatched a plan: he would run away from his platoon<u+2019>s tiny outpost in paktika province late on june 29, 2009. he would stay away from the army a day, maybe two, and then reappear about 19 miles away at a larger installation and demand to air his grievances with a general. he knew that the region was crawling with insurgents, but he had <u+201c>outsize impressions of his own capabilities,<u+201d> according to an investigating officer, and was determined to create enough chaos to get the attention of senior commanders. those were among the details that emerged in a preliminary hearing here late last week. the soldier, carrying just a disguise, a knife and some provisions, was captured by insurgents by 10 a.m. the following morning, beginning four years and 11 months of captivity and torture by the haqqani network, a group affiliated with the taliban, according to maj. gen. kenneth dahl, the senior officer who carried out an investigation of bergdahl<u+2019>s actions and interviewed him at length. the case against bergdahl, who is charged with desertion and misbehaving before the enemy, is the most closely scrutinized desertion prosecution in the military in decades <u+2014> perhaps since that of pvt. eddie slovik, a soldier who became the only american executed for desertion since the civil war. the officer overseeing the bergdahl hearing, lt. col. mark a. visger, is expected to make a recommendation in the coming days to u.s. army forces command, at fort bragg, n.c., about whether bergdahl should be court-martialed. bergdahl, now 29 and a sergeant, was recovered in may 2014 in a controversial swap in which the white house approved the release of five taliban detainees from the military prison at guantanamo bay, cuba. they are now in qatar. emotional testimony has underscored the relentless brutality that bergdahl had to endure, as well as the chaos caused by his disappearance and the lingering resentment of some of his comrades. the case has also raised questions about the obama administration<u+2019>s handling of it, which included inviting bergdahl<u+2019>s parents to speak at the white house after the soldier was recovered, with national security adviser susan e. rice saying he served with <u+201c>honor and distinction.<u+201d> [bergdahl will require lifetime of care for injuries suffered in captivity] the white house has since concluded that it badly misplayed the optics of bergdahl<u+2019>s release, according to administration officials. bergdahl<u+2019>s parents were in washington the day he was recovered, and a quick decision was made to include them in a rose garden announcement, with little thought given to the ramifications of making bergdahl appear to be a hero, the officials said. bergdahl joined the army a few years after washing out of initial training for the coast guard. the washington post reported previously that it was for psychological reasons, but bergdahl<u+2019>s lawyer and dahl were more specific in the hearing: the future taliban captive was diagnosed with depression and sent home after he was found in distress in a coast guard barracks, sitting on a floor with blood in his hands, possibly from a bloody nose, dahl testified. <u+201c>he wasn<u+2019>t ready for it,<u+201d> dahl said of life in the coast guard. <u+201c>he was overwhelmed, found himself in the hospital and was released.<u+201d> bergdahl received a waiver to enlist in the army. he was physically fit and well regarded for his work ethic, but quickly became disenchanted with his fellow soldiers and the army<u+2019>s training program. among his gripes: he couldn<u+2019>t believe higher-ranking soldiers wanted him to lock his wall locker to prevent theft and saw pre-deployment training at the national training center at fort irwin, calif., as <u+201c>lame,<u+201d> dahl said. bergdahl was assigned to the 25th infantry division<u+2019>s 1st battalion, 501st infantry regiment, 4th brigade combat team, of fort richardson, alaska. there, he took offense to a motivational speech made by the senior enlisted soldier to the entire battalion. the command sergeant major said in jest that, like other soldiers, he liked to pillage and plunder, but bergdahl took it literally, dahl said. in afghanistan, there was another misunderstanding, dahl said. soldiers from bergdahl<u+2019>s unit weren<u+2019>t all wearing their whole uniforms one day, a violation that upset then-lt. col. clinton baker, bergdahl<u+2019>s battalion commander. baker launched into a tirade to get his point across, kicking rocks in the process. bergdahl was convinced that baker had disturbed an afghan grave, a suggestion that perplexed the others present, dahl said. the general found that bergdahl<u+2019>s childhood living at <u+201c>the edge of the grid<u+201d> in idaho in relative isolation hurt his ability to relate to other people. as a result, he was an extremely harsh judge of character and <u+201c>unrealistically idealistic,<u+201d> dahl said. <u+201c>i think he absolutely believed that the things he perceived were absolutely true,<u+201d> he added. bergdahl could have gone to a number of people in his chain of command with concerns about his platoon. but he thought that they were in the army for the money, or otherwise incapable of responding, dahl said. in some ways, the soldier did consider others before running away from observation post mest, dahl said. he told dahl that he picked the night he disappeared in part because he knew another platoon already would be on the way in the morning to relieve bergdahl<u+2019>s, thus providing additional manpower to deal with his vanishing. he didn<u+2019>t want to take his 5.56mm squad automatic machine gun with him alone outside the wire because he figured it would draw attention, but also decided against stealing a 9mm pistol because that would have gotten a fellow soldier in trouble, dahl said. bergdahl<u+2019>s disappearance was noticed around dawn, when he was due to take a guard shift. capt. john billings, his former platoon leader, testified that he was in shock that one of his men could have vanished, and initially thought his soldiers were pulling a joke on him. reality eventually set in, though, and he informed his company commander, then-capt. silvino silvino. <u+201c>i felt sick to my stomach,<u+201d> said silvino, now a major. <u+201c>i didn<u+2019>t know what was going to come after that. .<u+2009>.<u+2009>. i instructed him to go look high and low, and everywhere he could.<u+201d> coalition forces across eastern afghanistan altered their operations that summer looking for bergdahl, exposing soldiers to additional and dangerous missions. that remains a sensitive point, amid allegations from bergdahl<u+2019>s fellow soldiers that at least six u.s. troops died because of his actions. dahl said he examined a variety of evidence, and found nothing that connected the deaths directly to bergdahl. but the search-and-rescue operations undoubtedly altered security in the region, military officials said, and plunged the units involved into hastily planned missions. baker, the former battalion commander, recalled that one platoon conducted 37 consecutive days of operations <u+2014> long enough that new socks and t-shirts had to be delivered to the soldiers, since theirs were rotting on their bodies. bergdahl, meanwhile, was already in pakistan. he was relentlessly beaten in captivity with rubber hoses and copper cables. he repeatedly tried to escape, said terrence russell, an official with the pentagon<u+2019>s joint personnel recovery agency, who interviewed bergdahl after his return. bergdahl was moved to at least six different locations, including one referred to as a taliban prison. after escaping once for nearly nine days, bergdahl was put in a 7-foot cage, blindfolded and left there for most of his last 3<u+00bd> years in captivity, russell said. bergdahl has been accused often of cooperating with the insurgents or even seeking them out, but russell said there is no evidence to support those claims. the haqqani network forced him to make videos that were released online. russell grew visibly agitated while describing the conditions bergdahl faced, wiping tears away at one point. while the sergeant has been accused of many things, russell said, he was <u+201c>an organization of one,<u+201d> with no fellow prisoners who could keep his spirits up. <u+201c>he did the best job he could do,<u+201d> russell said, <u+201c>and i respect him for it.<u+201d> bergdahl<u+2019>s attorney, eugene fidell, argued during closing arguments at the preliminary hearing that his client should not be court-martialed for either of the charges he now faces. there is probable cause, fidell acknowledged, to charge him with a lesser offense, being absent without leave for one day, but the moment he was taken captive, fidell said, that designation should have ended. the maximum penalty for being awol for one day is 30 days of confinement. an army prosecutor, maj. margaret kurz, said that bergdahl<u+2019>s actions hurt the army, his fellow soldiers and the mission in afghanistan, and he must be punished. <u+201c>one does not just walk away into the afghan wilderness,<u+201d> she said, <u+201c>and then return as though nothing happened.<u+201d> bergdahl<u+2019>s former officer: <u+2018>absolute disbelief that i couldn<u+2019>t find one of my men.<u+2019> in sparse prose, bergdahl details his captivity for the first time

disillusioned and self-deluded, bowe bergdahl vanished into a brutal captivity

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the election in 232 photos, 43 numbers and 131 quotes, from the two candidates at the center of it all.

how bernie changed hillary

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donald trump publicly raised questions about hillary clinton<u+2019>s health for the first time since the former secretary of state was forced on sunday to leave a ceremony for the victims of 9/11. speaking in an air-conditioned minor league basketball arena in canton, ohio, trump made his most direct reference to clinton<u+2019>s recent diagnosis of pneumonia and her campaign saying she left the event in new york because she felt <u+201c>overheated<u+201d>. <u+201c>you think this is easy?<u+201d> trump asked. <u+201c>in this beautiful room that<u+2019>s 122 degrees. it is hot, and it is always hot when i perform because the crowds are so big. the rooms were not designed for this kind of crowd. i don<u+2019>t know, folks. you think hillary clinton would be able to stand up here and do this for an hour? i don<u+2019>t know.<u+201d> the republican nominee later went on to add of his democratic rival, <u+201c>now she<u+2019>s lying in bed, getting better and we want her better, we want her back on the trail, right?<u+201d> sounding like the classic unscripted trump, the republican presidential nominee often deviated from his teleprompters in a 40-minute speech that ranged from clinton<u+2019>s health to the water crisis in flint, michigan. the issue of candidate health and medical records has come to the forefront after the clinton campaign revealed on sunday <u+2013> eight hours after she abruptly left the ceremony at the national september 11 memorial <u+2013> that the former secretary of state had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. the democratic nominee had to be helped into a van while leaving. afterward, clinton cancelled all public events for three days. clinton has since released more detailed medical information from her doctor describing her as <u+201c>healthy and fit to serve as president<u+201d>. in contrast, trump has yet to share further medical information to the public besides a brief letter written in december that said he would be <u+201c>the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency<u+201d>. however, in an interview with controversial tv doctor dr oz, set to air on thursday, the 70-year-old trump reportedly said that he would like to lose 15 pounds, doesn<u+2019>t exercise and is fond of fast food. trump also addressed the water crisis in flint, a former car manufacturing hub that has seen tens of thousands of jobs disappear in recent decades. <u+201c>it used to be cars were made in flint and you couldn<u+2019>t drink the water in mexico,<u+201d> the republican nominee said. <u+201c>now the cars are made in mexico and you can<u+2019>t drink the water in flint.<u+201d> ford said on wednesday that it was moving all its small-car production to mexico. earlier in the day, trump had visited the city and ended up in a confrontation with a local pastor. trump was visiting a church that serves as a water distribution center for residents when he started critiquing clinton. the pastor, faith green timmons, interrupted and made clear: <u+201c>mr trump, i invited you here to thank us for what we<u+2019>ve done in flint, not give a political speech.<u+201d> later in ohio, trump, buoyed by recent polls that showed him taking the lead in that crucial swing state, was in high spirits in front of a cheering crowd. his supporters, many of them wearing trump-themed apparel, ate up applause lines such as when trump asked who would pay for his famous border wall. he received loud shouts in return of <u+201c>mexico<u+201d>. the crowd also booed and hissed when trump told them, <u+201c>president obama just announced a 30% increase to refugee admissions coming into this country.<u+201d> trump added after the loud chorus of boos subsided that <u+201c>that was hard to take<u+201d>. the republican nominee added of the proposal: <u+201c>it<u+2019>s bringing the total to 110,000 refugees in just a single year, and we have no idea where they come from, it<u+2019>s a great trojan horse.<u+201d> looking ahead to history<u+2019>s judgment, trump noted, <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t want be known in 200 years for having created a trojan horse by a different name.<u+201d> the uncharacteristic return to his unscripted rally style comes the day before the republican nominee is scheduled to make a major economic policy speech at the waldorf astoria in new york. there, the republican nominee will introduce a tax reform proposal. trump has previously introduced two other tax reform plans. first, in 2015, where he emphasized that half of americans in lieu of paying taxes would simply mail a card to the irs saying <u+201c>i win<u+201d>, and more recently in august where he proposed to reduce the number of tax brackets to three while drastically cutting rates. the speech on thursday is expected to be a more expansive elaboration of the august proposal. <u+2022> this article was amended on 19 september 2016 to clarify when hillary clinton was diagnosed with pneumonia.

donald trump questions clinton<u+2019>s health at rally in ohio: <u+2018>you think this is easy?<u+2019>

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washington (cnn) mitch mcconnell is the senate majority leader -- and he'd like to keep it that way. heading into the final year of his first session leading the chamber -- which begins monday when the senate returns from its winter recess -- the kentucky republican is developing a carefully tailored legislative agenda. it is designed to support his top priority, which is not losing power to democrats, who controlled the senate for most of the past decade and who are committed to reclaiming it in the november elections. to complicate his effort, the soft-spoken and methodical mcconnell must accomplish this against the backdrop of a wildly unpredictable 2016 gop presidential nominating campaign that has two anti-washington agitators -- businessman donald trump and sen. ted cruz of texas -- leading the pack. the controversial tone of their campaigns has mainstream republicans deeply concerned about the impact on down-ticket candidates -- such as moderate gop senators from purple states who must be re-elected if republicans are to hold the senate -- especially if trump or cruz win the republican nomination. republicans currently have a narrow 54-46 advantage and must defend 24 seats this fall, seven in swing states that voted for president barack obama. democrats need to protect just 10 seats, only one of which is considered competitive. a constant and challenging task in the months ahead for mcconnell will be to protect incumbent senators like kelly ayotte of new hampshire, mark kirk of illinois, pat toomey of pennsylvania, rob portman of ohio, and ron johnson of wisconsin from politically difficult votes on free trade, guns, abortion, and other sensitive social issues that could cause them trouble back home. mcconnell, who is firmly rooted in the establishment wing of the gop, spent his first year running the chamber with a strategic eye toward the 2016 senate elections. he believes he made an important down payment to voters by proving republicans can govern more effectively and successfully than democrats. "by any objective standard, i think the senate is clearly back to work," mcconnell said at a year-end news conference. he pushed through a number of major bills -- such as highway funding and education reform -- that were signed into law by obama and he diligently prevented any real threat of government shutdowns or other dramatic "fiscal cliffs" that have shaken voters' nerves in recent years. "i wanted to end those sort of rattling experiences that the american people don't like. it never produces a positive result anyway," mcconnell said. "i took those off the table the day after the election and we began to figure out how to get the senate working again." mcconnell is tight-lipped about exactly which bills he will put on the floor and when ahead of the november election. aides say many of those decisions need to be made after a joint house and senate republican retreat in baltimore later this week. but he's made clear that restoring a regular appropriations process -- where all 12 government spending bills will be debated and voted on separately -- is key. democrats fought that approach last year because republicans were demanding higher spending for defense needs than domestic programs, a standoff that led to a breakthrough budget deal that set top-line government spending figures for 2016 and 2017. because of that, democratic leaders believe mcconnell's ambition to take up all the spending bills may be doable. "that seems to be pretty fertile ground for bipartisan compromise," said sen. chuck schumer (d-new york). it may be ambitious to believe all these bills can actually pass the partisan congress, especially with a legislative calendar truncated by the political conventions and other campaign activities. but if the parties could agree on some individual spending bills it would lower the risk of major government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins october 1. that would be a relief to gop leaders and a sign to voters they kept their word to avoid calamity. while there is a laundry list of other bills the senate could take up this year -- including a massive international trade deal and sweeping criminal justice reform -- mcconnell might be reluctant to negotiate anything major with a lame duck democratic president and hold out to see if a republican can win back the white house. "i think no matter which party controls the white house, during a presidential year everything is overtaken by that election," said brian walsh, a former top official at the national republican senatorial committee, which works to elect gop senate candidates. "i think both parties are in a wait-and-see mode in terms of who is going to control the white house in the following year. i think it's only prudent to hold off on big issues like this and see where things are in 12 months." mcconnell's aim for a more modest legislative agenda differs dramatically with the priorities of the new house speaker paul ryan who has said he wants his chamber to be an "ideas factory." ryan also must placate a restive right flank that wants to push high-profile legislation that will draw sharp campaign year contrasts with obama and congressional democrats. some of those hot-button issues -- dealing with abortion, guns, climate change and more -- will be politically complicated for mcconnell if they are sent over from the house just as he is trying to protect swing state senators from tough votes. other issues will compete for mcconnell's attention. many republicans want to pass an authorization for the use of military force against isis, something that has regularly stalled in the past over policy differences. ryan has approved a fresh look at an aumf and if the house approves one if could put pressure on mcconnell to act. the house is also readying to act on new sanctions against north korea. on the domestic front, a battle is expected on a bill reauthorizing the federal aviation administration over a push by some republicans to privatize air traffic controllers. democrats will demand votes on their agenda too. helping puerto rico solve its debt crisis is a top priority for democrats as is passing more gun control laws. republicans leaders have signaled they are open to possible legislation for the troubled u.s. territory but are flatly opposed to any new gun law, despite obama's recent push on the issue. "we're going to do more on guns," said senate minority leader harry reid. "we're not going to be silent on that." 'do no harm' to gop senators? mcconnell has already signaled he doesn't want to take up the trans-pacific partnership measure <u+2014> a legacy item for obama <u+2014> until after the election. putting off votes on the controversial multi-nation free trade pact could benefit gop senators up for re-election in rust belt states like pat toomey of pennsylvania and rob portman of ohio where the loss of jobs to free trade deals is a sensitive subject. mcconnell also has said he doesn't intend to draft a major overhaul of the tax code this year, even though it's a top goal of ryan's. because government funding levels were set in last year's budget deal, mcconnell could skip doing a budget resolution this year, several congressional aides told cnn. dropping the time-consuming budget process could give gop senate candidates more time at home campaigning. it would also allow them to avoid the ritual "vote-a-rama" when senators can offer up an infinite number of amendments, many of which are aimed at putting political squeezes on those running for re-election. a spokesman for mcconnell denied that was true. "we're planning on a budget," don stewart said. walsh, who as an official at the nrsc helped republicans win back the senate two years ago after eight years of democratic majorities, said the key for mcconnell and his conference is "demonstrating that they are doing the business of the american people in terms of funding the government, passing bills on time. and that will benefit their candidates." "i think the big issue is do no harm," he said.

mitch mcconnell's mission to keep the gop majority

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another deadline has come and gone with no decision from vice president biden about his possible late-breaking entry into the presidential campaign. biden seems poised to continue his deliberations for several more weeks <u+2014> and possibly into early november <u+2014> leaving precious little time to launch a bid and get on the ballot in key early primary states. prominent donors are being courted, and senior strategists with ties to president obama<u+2019>s past campaigns are in conversation with biden<u+2019>s team. the continued indecision has made it all but certain that the vice president will not take part in the first democratic debate oct.<u+00a0>13 in las vegas, leaving the stage to the top two competitors, hillary rodham clinton and sen. bernie sanders (i-vt.), and several others. at times, biden sounds far from ready. but then there are moments like thursday night, when biden sprinkled his remarks to a manhattan crowd with comments that sounded like someone with a keen interest in running. he made a reference to the many miles he has traveled as vice president <u+2014> now clocking in at more than clinton did as secretary of state. he also drew an ideological contrast with sanders, who has generated enthusiasm on the left with his populist economic agenda. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not bernie sanders,<u+201d> biden said at the concordia summit. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s a great guy, he really is. but i<u+2019>m not a populist; i<u+2019>m a realist.<u+201d> when biden talks like that, it feeds speculation that he is getting ready to join the race, and there is plenty of activity around him to suggest that he is overseeing a campaign in the making. and yet, there is a parallel universe of greater significance, the single factor that no one can overcome, which is that biden<u+2019>s family is still grieving the loss of biden<u+2019>s son beau, who died of brain cancer four months ago at age 46. the vice president has repeatedly said that no decision about running for president can be made until his family is ready to commit, even if it means that the moment passes. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s just not quite there yet, and it might not get there in time to make it feasible to run and succeed because there are certain windows that will close. if that<u+2019>s it, that<u+2019>s it. it<u+2019>s not like i can rush it,<u+201d> biden said in an interview with america, a leading jesuit news site, just before pope francis arrived in washington last week. some biden loyalists have been counseling against the delayed approach because it could give clinton time to recover from self-inflicted wounds her campaign has suffered over the continued fallout of investigations into her use of a private e-mail server while serving as secretary of state. nine days after the debate, clinton is scheduled to appear before a house committee established to investigate what happened in benghazi, libya, in september 2012, when four americans were killed. democrats began to rally around clinton this week after remarks by house majority leader kevin mccarthy <u+00ad>(r-calif.) touted that the investigation had hurt her politically, prompting leading democrats to call the investigation a political exercise. even though he is not expected at the las vegas debate, biden will share a forum with clinton this weekend. he will deliver the keynote address saturday at the human rights campaign<u+2019>s annual dinner in washington. clinton will speak to the gay rights group earlier in the day. biden<u+2019>s decision-making process continues along two separate tracks, as it has over the past several months. the first is a methodical effort by a small team of advisers to survey the political landscape, and the second is biden<u+2019>s internal family deliberations. with every week that passes, biden and his political team believe they are more ready than ever to launch a campaign. but with every week that passes, biden is that much closer to the point of no return <u+2014> when it would be too late to mount a credible campaign. critical states such as new hampshire, texas and florida have filing deadlines that start in november and december, requiring campaign staff on the ground to assemble voter signatures. that sets up a particularly tense october. the vice president has already blown through previous decision-making timelines, beginning with the end-of-august or early-september dates that advisers suggested in the spring, before the public knew that beau biden<u+2019>s brain cancer had a recurrence. by late summer, biden<u+2019>s camp clarified that the end of summer <u+2014> officially sept.<u+00a0>23 <u+2014> was a more likely deadline, only to float oct. 1 in recent weeks because that would still allow him to be on stage at the oct. 13 debate. on thursday, officials at cnn, the host of the las vegas event, reported that biden is not expected to participate. those close to biden suggest the debate would be high-risk for him. despite his shoot-from-the-hip image, biden is meticulous with debate preparations. for his 2012 vice presidential debate against rep. paul ryan (r-wis.), biden logged 100 hours of preparation, including 60 hours that had been completed a full month before the encounter. instead of debate prep, biden has devoted recent weeks to his vice-presidential duties. last week, his schedule was consumed with the papal visit and the state visit by chinese president xi <u+00ad>jinping. earlier this week, he spent a day in new york in a round of meetings with foreign leaders attending the u.n. general assembly, and he returned there thursday for a pair of events devoted to diplomacy. next thursday, he will deliver remarks at the carnegie endowment for international peace on infrastructure funding to boost the economy, which some loyalists believe could be the hallmark of a campaign theme. the now-lengthy deliberation has given biden<u+2019>s advisers plenty of time to make a thorough assessment of the political landscape, identify available talent and scope out prospects for raising enough money. biden<u+2019>s team is confident that he could raise $30 million or so to get through the first round of primaries and caucuses. they have identified people willing to help staff a campaign, both those with past associations with biden and many who were involved in president obama<u+2019>s 2008 or 2012 campaigns. no firm offers have been made to prospective staffers, but biden loyalists have a good sense of who they would try to slot into the key jobs. and as one person with ties to the obama political network, though not in direct conversation with biden<u+2019>s team, put it: <u+201c>there<u+2019>s a lot of talent available.<u+2019> the associated press reported thursday that two obama campaign veterans <u+2014> paul tewes, who ran the successful iowa caucus campaign in 2008 that was a key to winning the nomination, a field expert, and marie harf, now the state department spokeswoman <u+2014> were in talks to work on the potential biden campaign. those close to biden make no bold predictions of victory in what would be a potentially fierce contest against clinton and sanders. nor are they making their calculations based on the belief that clinton has been so weakened during the first months of her candidacy that she would be easy to defeat. their calculations are based, instead, on the assumption that she would be a formidable opponent. as much as he says he is not ready to make the decision, biden has dangled hope to his supporters who view his son<u+2019>s loss as a rallying cry, frequently recalling his own father<u+2019>s admonition to <u+201c>just get up<u+201d> when life knocked him down. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s what beau wants us to do. that<u+2019>s what beau expects his father to do,<u+201d> biden told the jesuit news site. <u+201c>so we<u+2019>re just getting up and moving on.<u+201d>

as deadlines pass, biden remains opaque about a 2016 candidacy

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essentially everyone in washington is freaking out about the blizzard. but for several weeks now, many congressional republicans have privately freaked out about the prospects of donald trump or, to a lesser degree, sen. ted cruz, r-texas, emerging as the party<u+2019>s standard-bearer in the presidential sweepstakes. the theory is that both candidates are so polarizing that their electoral prospects will impale republican candidates down the ballot. let<u+2019>s start with the house. the gop currently holds a 246-188 edge over democrats. the current vacant seat belonged to former house speaker john boehner, r-ohio, and is expected to stay in republican hands. so for the sake of argument, let<u+2019>s say it<u+2019>s 247-188 in favor of the gop. democrats would have to flip a staggering net of 30 seats to reclaim control of the house. democrats would be rapturous at the prospects of rank-and-file republicans having to defund trump or cruz -- or run away from them. democrats could probably put a substantial dent in that 30-seat republican margin. but that<u+2019>s expected in a presidential election year. it<u+2019>s just a question of how many more seats a trump or cruz candidacy could turn to democratic control. but make no mistake: knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle are clear that it would be almost impossible for democrats to win back the house this cycle. that net gain of 30 seats is just too high a bar. the map favors republicans. there aren<u+2019>t a lot of <u+201c>swing<u+201d> districts in which democrats could steal a seat or two. nothing is ever out of the question. but the likelihood of democrats nabbing the house majority is low at this writing. the senate, however, is another story. republicans already faced an uphill climb to retain their majority this fall. the gop must defend 24 seats. only 10 democratic seats are up this cycle. plus, it<u+2019>s a presidential year. and, many of the republican seats on the ballot are in <u+201c>purple<u+201d> states or states that president obama won in 2008 and 2012. for the gop, sens. ron johnson, wis., mark kirk, ill., rob portman, ohio, kelly ayotte, n.h., pat toomey, pa., and richard burr, n.c., are running in competitive states. democrats would also like to win the seat now held by gop florida sen. marco rubio, who is running for president and not seeking re-election to the senate. democrats must also defend the seat of sen. michael bennet, colo., and the seat of retiring senate minority leader harry reid, nevada. colorado and nevada are potential gop pickups. republicans currently hold a 54-46 advantage over the democrats in the senate (two independent senators caucus with the democrats). so a net gain of five seats isn<u+2019>t out of the realm for democrats. many political theorists think those seats in swing states could all tilt to the democratic side if trump or cruz is the nominee. this pariah status for trump and cruz is rare. on thursday, a reporter asked sen. lindsey graham, r-s.c., whether he preferred cruz over trump. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s like being shot or poisoned. it doesn<u+2019>t really matter,<u+201d> replied graham. <u+201c>donald trump is the most-unprepared person i<u+2019>ve ever met to be commander-in-chief.<u+201d> last week, house and senate republicans huddled jointly in baltimore for their annual issues retreat. much of the conversation focused on an approach to fighting isis, terrorism and polling. trump and cruz weren<u+2019>t there. but their specter haunted the entire confab. as a result, republican leaders tried to present a positive image and sidestep internecine battles that loom inside the party. <u+201c>what happens above us on the presidential campaign is out of our control. so you try to control what you can control,<u+201d> said senate republican conference chairman john thune, s.d. when asked about the eventual nominee, thune left scribes with a less-than-confident answer that spoke deeply to republican divisions. <u+201c>hopefully we<u+2019>ll be able to sync up with their agenda,<u+201d> he said about the nominee. house majority whip steve scalise, r-la., sought to deflect inquiries about the gop chasms and pivoted to fissures among democrats. <u+201c>i think if you look at the fractures, there are more on the democratic side,<u+201d> proffered scalise. <u+201c>hillary clinton hasn<u+2019>t been able to close the deal yet. i think you are going to see a very united convention.<u+201d> the most-prominent issue next to trump and cruz is the unity of republicans heading into the convention. everyone seems to be talking about it -- except for house speaker paul ryan, r-wis. the speaker dismissed a reporter<u+2019>s inquiry who asked if he thought the gop would conduct a brokered convention. <u+201c>that's ridiculous,<u+201d> ryan protested. <u+201c>how do i know? i think that's ridiculous to talk about that.<u+201d> even though people are talking about it<u+2026>. and to hear ryan and scalise chatter, everyone will be in lockstep come convention time. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to support whoever our nominee is because that<u+2019>s the republican primary voter<u+2019>s decision,<u+201d> ryan said. that<u+2019>s where democrats think they have republicans in a fix if the gop nominates trump or cruz. reid said he<u+2019>d like to see the senate vote on some of trump<u+2019>s policies - specifically the plan to ban muslims from entering the u.s. this is why republicans fear trump -- and why democrats would love to put gopers on the spot and exploit the schism. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell retorted that <u+201c>what is good for the goose is good for the gander.<u+201d> the kentucky republican argued he might concoct votes on the policy positions of clinton or fellow democratic sen. bernie sanders, independent-vermont. adam jentleson, a top aide to reid, indicated to fox that democrats <u+201c>would accept the deal mcconnell proposed in a heartbeat -- votes on trump<u+2019>s policies in return for votes on clinton/sanders policies.<u+201d> in many respects, congressional republicans are trying to rise above the fray. <u+201c>we need to appear like the sane ones,<u+201d> said one senior house aide. that<u+2019>s why ryan<u+2019>s pushing a robust policy agenda and <u+201c>vision<u+201d> items this year. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s a lot of us who believe this is a make or break year. we are going to build an agenda that is agnostic to our nominee,<u+201d> said texas gop rep. bill flores, chairman the republican study committee, the largest bloc of conservatives in the house. the agenda <u+201c>is a key piece of infrastructure that any presidential nominee would need,<u+201d> he said. in short, house gopers are hoping to <u+201c>wag the dog<u+201d> a little. if say trump is the nominee and he propounds far-flung ideas, perhaps congressional republicans can temper that red meat with bona fide policies that represent core values of the party. but that doesn<u+2019>t stop everyone from freaking out on capitol hill. maybe trump and cruz already wagged the dog. and then those in congress are the ones who look like they<u+2019>re out of step with the nominee their party selects.

as washington publically frets over storm, gop worries about impact of trump, cruz on hill majority

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the 11 service members who were onboard a black hawk helicopter that crashed tuesday night on the florida panhandle coastline are presumed dead, a pentagon official said, but a search-and-rescue operation was still underway wednesday in a desperate search for survivors. seven marines and four soldiers were onboard a uh-60 helicopter as part of a training exercise when the chopper ran into heavy fog. human remains and helicopter parts were recovered earlier wednesday. "it's a tough day," maj. gen. glenn h. curtis, the adjutant general of the louisiana national guard, where the unit was based. "they're under my command. i take very seriously their safety and well-being, and that of their families." kim urr, 62, who works at the nearby navarre beach campground, said she heard a strange sound, followed by two explosions around 8:30 p.m. tuesday. "it sounded like something metal either being hit or falling over, that's what it sounded like. and there were two booms afterward, similar to what you hear with ordnance booms, but more muffled," urr said. president obama spoke with the military leaders involved and expressed his condolences to the families before saying he's confident of a detailed and thorough investigation, said his spokesman, josh earnest. "our thoughts and prayers are with them and their families as the search and rescue continues," defense secretary ash carter said on capitol hill. the black hawk crashed as marines and national guardsmen practiced "insertion and extraction missions," using small boats and helicopters to get troops into and out of a target site, said capt. barry morris, spokesman for the marine corps special operations command at camp lejeune. like the army's green berets and the navy's seals, these marines were highly skilled unconventional warriors, trained to endure grueling conditions and sensitive assignments on land and at sea, from seizing ships to special reconnaissance missions and direct action inside hostile territory. the helicopter was part of a nighttime training mission tuesday at eglin air force base in florida. there was dense fog in the area at the time of the crash but officials have not said what caused the helicopter to go down. fog had reduced visibility to less than two miles at the time, according to the national weather service. another helicopter participating in the exercise turned back because of the bad weather before the other black hawk crashed, authorities said. despite the human remains washing ashore, the military still called it a rescue mission wednesday, said sara vidoni, a spokeswoman for eglin air force base, outside pensacola. the fog remained so heavy wednesday that search boats just offshore could be heard but not seen, blasting horns as their crews peered into the choppy water. it finally began to lift in the afternoon, enabling a helicopter to slowly survey the water. about a dozen airmen wearing fatigues walked shoulder-to-shoulder down the beach, scanning the sand, while civilian rescue crews and searchers with dogs joined the effort. the coast guard said debris was first spotted about 1:30 a.m. wednesday, and that the search area expanded to a 17-mile stretch of the narrow sound separating santa rosa island from the florida panhandle mainland. the marines were part of a special operations group based in camp lejeune. they had arrived sunday for a week of training. none were immediately identified, so that families could be told first. the helicopter that crashed had joined the training from an airport in nearby destin. the site includes 20 miles of pristine beachfront under military control since before world war ii <u+2014> an ideal place for special operations units from across the military to practice, test range manager glenn barndollar told the ap last year. the associated press contributed to this report.

11 service members in black hawk crash presumed dead

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(cnn) tori sisson and shant<u+00e9> wolfe of tuskegee, alabama, camped outside the montgomery county courthouse overnight, hoping that when the sun rose monday, they'd be the first same-sex couple to be legally married in the county. they arrived at 2 p.m. sunday and set up their tent. expecting a crowd -- of mostly media and friends, or their "chosen family," as many of their kin don't approve of their relationship -- they awoke at 5 a.m. monday to get dressed "so that when we got out of the tent we'd look like a million bucks," sisson said. sisson, 24, and wolfe, 21, have known each other for seven years. they've been dating for two. last year, the pair got "spiritually married" in tuskegee, but it wasn't a state-recognized union -- where all the rights and benefits of matrimony are conferred on both partners. they previously considered going to a state that allowed same-sex marriage, but wolfe balked at the idea. "we work here and we pay taxes here, and we didn't feel it was right that we'd have to do that because nobody else does," she said. though there were some minor computer problems in issuing their license, their wish soon came true. with one of their godmothers performing the ceremony, they exchanged vows outside the courthouse and kissed as a phalanx of media cameras captured the moment. (one of those cameras belonged to the human rights campaign, a watchdog group involved in marriage equality advocacy; sisson works for the organization.) sisson wept, while wolfe did not. "one of us has to hold it together," wolfe quipped. sisson's tears weren't borne solely of the bliss that comes with being joined in union with your beloved. sure, those sentiments were there, sisson said, but she cried also because she had been thinking all night about the myriad couples who were denied the opportunity she and wolfe were able to seize monday. "we have the honor to be the first couple in montgomery county to do this. it's amazing," sisson said, explaining the "overwhelming and overflowing love i have for shant<u+00e9> but also for people and the hope i have in my heart that this really means progress here." how we got here though the u.s. supreme court and the u.s. district court for the southern district of alabama cleared the way for same-sex marriages to begin monday in alabama, the famously conservative chief justice of the state supreme court on sunday mounted a last-ditch effort to stop the weddings, instructing probate judges not to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. that didn't stop several couples from converging on county courthouses across the state. probate judge alan king in jefferson county, the state's most populous, said there appeared to be a larger-than-usual crowd outside the courthouse when he arrived at work monday. "effective immediately, no probate judge of the state of alabama nor any agent or employee of any alabama probate judge shall issue or recognize a marriage license that is inconsistent" with the state code or constitution, moore wrote in the order. the american civil liberties union called moore's order spurious and reminded alabama's probate judges they are sworn to uphold the u.s. constitution, which outweighs state law on this issue. "judge roy moore has no authority to trump a federal court's decision," said susan watson, executive director of the aclu of alabama. "by issuing his 'order,' he has done nothing but create confusion among the different probate offices across the state. whereas some counties are issuing licenses to same-sex couples, there are many who aren't. unfortunately, we have received a number of complaints to that effect." the human rights campaign has already denounced the order as a "clear violation of all codes of legal ethics," and several counties -- including jefferson, montgomery and madison -- have told cnn they intend to issue same-sex marriage licenses monday. but in tuscaloosa county, where five same-sex couple were awaiting licenses when the court opened monday, chief probate clerk lisa whitehead said the court would follow moore's guidance. "we will be issuing traditional marriage licenses," she told cnn. shelby, marshall and houston counties also are declining to issue the licenses, and in lee county, where two same-sex couples attempted to tie the knot monday, judge bill english said he, too, was "complying with an order from the chief justice late last night." other probate judges weren't sure moore had the law behind him. "i was shocked," king said of his reaction to moore's order. "i'm old enough to remember the george wallace stand in the schoolhouse door. i was a kid at the time." king was referencing the 1963 attempt by then-gov. wallace to stop the federally ordered desegregation of schools by blocking black students from entering the university of alabama's foster auditorium. contacted before his court opened for the day, king said he doesn't want to be on that side of history. after consulting with attorneys who helped him analyze moore's order, "i'm convinced it's my duty to follow the u.s. constitution and the federal court order. at 8 a.m., we will be issuing marriage licenses to all in jefferson county. ... i don't think (moore's order) is grounded in legal theory, just like gov. wallace in the 1960s was not grounded in law," he said. gov. robert bentley said he would not punish probate judges who issue the licenses. he added that he had "great respect" for the legal process and said, "we will follow the rule of law in alabama, and allow the issue of same sex marriage to be worked out through the proper legal channels." the federal court that struck down the ban permitted a stay until monday to allow probate courts to prepare. alabama attorney general luther strange asked the u.s. supreme court to block the marriages until the high court rules on a case on its docket that will decide the fate of same-sex marriages in four states. "in this case, the court refuses even to grant a temporary stay when it will resolve the issue at hand in several months," justice clarence thomas wrote in a dissent. "i would have shown the people of alabama the respect they deserve and preserved the status quo while the court resolves this important constitutional question." strange responded in a statement: "in the absence of a stay, there will likely be more confusion in the coming months leading up to the supreme court's anticipated ruling on the legality of same-sex marriage." strange further advised probate judges to consult with their attorneys "about how to respond to the ruling."

same-sex couples wed in alabama

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(cnn) in any normal presidential election, it would be hard to overshadow news that the fbi interviewed one of the candidates for three and a half hours about potential criminal behavior. but in 2016, donald trump seems to be able to seize any news cycle -- intentionally or otherwise. his saturday tweet of a graphic that included hillary clinton's face, a six-pointed star, a pile of cash and the words "most corrupt candidate ever" drew immediate backlash for evoking anti-semitic imagery. the image was posted 10 days earlier to an anti-semitic, white supremacist message board. the graphic @realdonaldtrump tweeted yesterday was first posted on an anti-semitic forum: https://t.co/nlsh0ocvdv pic.twitter.com/rfeb7bkgfm trump on monday morning initially addressed the controversy -- again on twitter -- by blaming the "dishonest media" for "trying their absolute best to depict a star in a tweet as the star of david rather than a sheriff's star, or plain star!" dishonest media is trying their absolute best to depict a star in a tweet as the star of david rather than a sheriff's star, or plain star! on monday afternoon, the trump campaign finally issued a statement on the matter -- one that amounted more to a response to the clinton campaign statement than an explanation of his tweet. trump rejected the clinton campaign's accusations that his tweet was anti-semitic by slamming "false attacks" and insisting the star represented a sheriff's badge. "these false attacks by hillary clinton trying to link the star of david with a basic star, often used by sheriffs who deal with criminals and criminal behavior, showing an inscription that says 'crooked hillary is the most corrupt candidate ever' with anti-semitism is ridiculous," trump said in a statement. trump's statement did not address the fact that the campaign tweeted an image that had previously been posted on an anti-semitic, white supremacist message board. his statement also didn't explain where the campaign obtained the image. on monday night the trump campaign's social media director, daniel scavino, filled in some details on what he said were the image's origins. "the social media graphic used this weekend was not created by the campaign nor was it sourced from an anti-semitic site," scavino said in a statement separate from trump's. "it was lifted from an anti-hillary twitter user where countless images appear." "the sheriff's badge -- which is available under microsoft's 'shapes' -- fit with the theme of corrupt hillary and that is why i selected it," scavino added. scavino also said that as the campaign's social media director, "i would never offend anyone and therefore chose to remove the image." trump's stumbles were suddenly back in the spotlight on a weekend that would have otherwise focused on clinton's vulnerabilities. trump's prolific twitter habit is once again forcing republicans to confront questions about the temperament of the man they will soon formally nominate as their presidential candidate and his apparent unwillingness to forcefully reject the support of those with racist or anti-semitic views. it also comes as trump tries to manage a more disciplined campaign, underscoring fears among some in the gop that the businessman is unable to avoid self-inflicted wounds. adding to the fire is the trump campaign's refusal to answer questions about the tweet, its origin or whether anyone would be held accountable. it simply deleted the tweet and replaced the six-pointed star with a circle. the clinton campaign blasted trump's tweet monday as part of a broader pattern. "donald trump's use of a blatantly anti-semitic image from racist websites to promote his campaign would be disturbing enough, but the fact that it's part of a pattern should give voters major cause for concern," sarah bard, hillary for america's director of jewish outreach, said in a statement. "now, not only won't he apologize for it, he's peddling lies and blaming others. trump should be condemning hate, not offering more campaign behavior and rhetoric that engages extremists." it's not the first time trump's own controversies have overshadowed clinton's as a result of the presumptive republican nominee's unforced errors. two days before trump created a weeks-long news cycle by accusing a judge of being biased because of his mexican heritage, clinton faced one of the most damaging news items of her candidacy when the state department's inspector general released a scathing assessment of clinton's private email use. but trump's tirade on the judge, his doubling down on those race-based accusations and the ensuing rift it provoked between trump and newly-supportive republican leaders eclipsed clinton's email woes. shielded by the holiday weekend, top republicans in the house and senate were quiet on trump's latest controversy. but the campaign's refusal to show any sense of accountability when it comes to the tweet may only add to the storm. the first prominent trump surrogate to address the controversy was not a campaign spokesperson or trump himself, but was instead trump's recently-ousted campaign manager corey lewandowski who blamed "political correctness run amok" for the outcry during a sunday interview on cnn's "state of the union." "there's no anti-semitism in mr. trump's body, not one ounce, not one cell," he told cnn's alisyn camerota, adding later, "not every six-sided star is a star of david." trump on sunday, meanwhile, refused to address the controversy over his tweet and sought to refocus scrutiny onto clinton. he slammed a "totally rigged" system that likely will not bring criminal charges against clinton and criticized former president bill clinton's private meeting with the u.s. attorney general loretta lynch just days earlier. he then tweeted condolences on the passing of holocaust survivor and nobel peace prize laureate elie wiesel. but still no word about his use of an image circulating in anti-semitic circles. trump's tweet monday addressing the graphic may only serve to further extend the controversy, drawing attention away from both clinton's email scandal and a news cycle this week that was expected to focus on trump's imminent decision to pick a running mate before the gop convention. trump's latest trouble is especially loaded because it's not the first instance of him tweeting or retweeting something linked to white supremacists. trump has previously retweeted neo-nazi accounts including one named "@whitegenocidetm." in november, he retweeted a graphic of false and racist crime statistics overstating the numbers of blacks killed by other blacks. and amid a groundswell of support from white supremacists, trump and his campaign have been slow and even loathe to reject the support of those individuals. when pressed by cnn's jake tapper earlier this year on the support of former ku klux klan leader david duke, who continues to peddle in anti-semitic conspiracy theories, trump initially said falsely he did not know of duke and would not disavow his support. he would later do so and blame a faulty earpiece. and when he was later confronted by cnn's wolf blitzer about anti-semitic death threats some of his supporters were directing at a jewish reporter who wrote a profile about trump's wife, the presumptive republican nominee refused to condemn those actions. "i don't have a message to the fans," trump said when pressed on the anti-semitic death threats in an interview with blitzer in may. "a woman wrote an article that's inaccurate." now, questions continue to swirl around how his campaign obtained and decided to tweet a graphic that had circulated on a message board filled with anti-semitic conspiracy theories and neo-nazi message boards -- and whether he will repudiate the support of individuals who prescribe to that ideology.

how trump overshadowed clinton's bad weekend

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americans trust hillary clinton to handle the threat of terrorism more than any of the leading republican candidates for president in the wake of the paris attacks, according to a new poll. the democratic front-runner leads most of the gop candidates by a wide margin, and tops gop front-runner donald trump by 8 points and second-place ben carson by 9 points. the closest gap is with former florida gov. jeb bush, who is within the margin of error of clinton, with clinton at 46% and bush at 43%. the washington post-abc news poll out monday asked americans if they would trust clinton or one of five republican candidates more. she led trump 50% to 42%, carson 49% to 40%, texas sen. ted cruz 47% to 40%, and florida sen. marco rubio 47% to 43%. the poll did not ask about clinton's democratic opponent, vermont sen. bernie sanders. the poll also found that americans strongly disapprove of how president barack obama is handling isis and the threat of terror broadly. americans disapprove of how obama is handling isis in iraq and syria, with 57% who disapprove and 35% who approve. fifty-four percent also disapprove of his handling of the threat of terrorism, compared with 40% who approve. questioners surveyed 1,004 american adults by telephone nov. 16 to nov. 19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. sign up for cnn politics' nightcap newsletter, serving up today's best and tomorrow's essentials in politics.

poll: hillary clinton tops donald trump, gop field on handling terror

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on friday afternoon, just a few short hours before the department homeland security was set to shut down, the republican leadership in the house of representatives scheduled a vote to grant dhs three more weeks of funding. the idea was to buy john boehner some time to do<u+2026> something. the legislative impasse that led us to the precipice of the shutdown was created by boehner, who passed a bill tying dhs appropriations to the rollback of president obama<u+2019>s immigration executive actions. he spent several weeks insisting that the house had <u+201c>done its job<u+201d> and would not pass any new legislation funding dhs. but senate republicans and democrats came together to pass a clean dhs funding bill, which forced boehner to once again act. rather than bow to political reality and take the only route available to him to actually fund the agency, boehner opted to prolong the agony and punt. and he couldn<u+2019>t even do that. the three-week continuing resolution failed when over 50 conservative republicans voted against it, rebuking boehner and the leadership and sending the entire process into utter chaos with less than half a day remaining until the shutdown. as has happened so many times over the last four years, the rest of the congressional leadership was impelled to overcome boehner<u+2019>s incompetence and cobble together a last-minute solution. mitch mcconnell and harry reid pushed a one-week cr through the senate late friday night, and nancy pelosi instructed house democrats to support its passage, with the promise from boehner that the house would pass a clean, long-term dhs funding bill this week. the one-week bill passed with the overwhelming support of democrats, and obama signed it. so, for all intents and purposes, the house minority leader was calling the shots last friday, determining which legislation would pass and mapping out future votes. boehner was along for the ride, keeping a low profile with the rest of the republican leadership while the democrats held press briefings sketching out the way forward. it<u+2019>d be embarrassing enough of this had never happened before, but it<u+2019>s getting difficult to keep track of how many times pelosi has had to bail out boehner. that it is still happening despite the fact that boehner is now sitting on one of the largest congressional majorities in decades is about as damning an indictment of his speakership as one could ask for. and that spells real trouble going forward. the story of the first two months of the all-republican congress has been complete dysfunction and the inability to perform the rudimentary tasks of government. the republicans are fighting amongst themselves and venting obvious frustration with boehner<u+2019>s shambolic approach to governing. on friday night, mcconnell passed the one-week cr and then immediately adjourned the senate for the weekend <u+2013> putting all the pressure to act on boehner and sending a clear message that he<u+2019>s done with this fight. earlier in the day, sen. mark kirk (r-il) pleaded with house republicans to stop the madness. <u+201c>hopefully we<u+2019>re gonna end the attaching of bullshit to essential items of the government,<u+201d> he said. but the dhs finding fight is just the first test of basic governance confronting the republican congress. sometime later this year the u.s. is going to bump up against the debt limit, and there<u+2019>s an excellent chance that the debt limit renewal will coincide with the next appropriations fight (the <u+201c>cromnibus,<u+201d> passed last december, only funded government operations through this september). the difficulty the republicans have had working in concert to fund a single department doesn<u+2019>t bode well for a combination debt limit/government funding showdown (with the attendant threats of default and shutdown). but before we even get to that point, there<u+2019>s a chance the republican congress will have to deal with the potentially catastrophic fallout from the king v. burwell decision. if the supreme court strikes down the affordable care act<u+2019>s subsidies in 37 states, republicans will be under intense pressure to do something to mitigate the damage. can anyone credibly argue that congress is up to the task when the speaker of the house has little to no control over one-fifth of his caucus? and, of course, the dhs funding fight still has to be resolved. congress bought themselves an extra week, and democrats agreed to the extension with the thinking that cold political logic and a sense of self-preservation will finally push boehner to give in and fund the agency without strings. but boehner<u+2019>s capacity for illogical and irrational behavior is why they<u+2019>re in this situation to begin with. boehner will eventually cave, but there<u+2019>s no guarantee when that will happen. and really this fight never should have happened in the first place. from the moment of its inception, the republican strategy was bound to fail. but the leaders in both houses of congress plowed ahead because they had no idea what else to do, and now they<u+2019>re being dragged along as the democrats push through last-minute legislative patches to keep the lights on at dhs. there are a lot of words to describe that process, but <u+201c>governance<u+201d> is not one of them.

boehner<u+2019>s worst failure yet: incompetence, near-shutdown & sorry state of gop <u+201c>governance<u+201d>

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dozens of terror suspects were arrested in belgium, france, and germany early friday, a day after belgian authorities said that they halted a plot to attack police officers by mere hours. eric van der sypt, a belgian federal magistrate, told a news conference friday in brussels that 13 people had been detained in belgium in connection with the plot, with another two arrested in neighboring france. he added that a dozen searches had led to the discovery of four military-style weapons including kalashnikov assault rifles. on thursday, belgian police had moved against a suspected terrorist hideout in the eastern town of verviers. in the ensuing firefight, two terror suspects were killed, while a third was wounded and arrested. at the time, officials said the militant group targeted in the raid included some who had returned from syria. authorities have previously said 300 belgian residents have gone to fight with extremist islamic formations in syria; it is unclear how many have returned. authorities in belgium signaled they were ready for more trouble by raising the national terror alert level from 2 to 3, the second-highest level. prime minister charles michel said the increase in the threat level was "a choice for prudence." "there is no concrete or specific knowledge of new elements of threat," he said. meanwhile, french police arrested at least 12 people in anti-terrorism raids in three towns around paris, the city prosecutor's office said early friday. the prosecutor's office said that the raids were targeting people with links to amedy coulibaly, the gunman who attacked a kosher supermarket jan. 9 and claimed ties to the islamic state terror group.<u+00a0>police officials earlier told the associated press that they were seeking up to eight to 10 potential accomplices coulibaly was one of three gunmen who carried out a series of terror attacks that resulted in the deaths of 17 people. authorities in france and several other countries are looking for possible accomplices. one suspect, coulibaly's common-law wife hayat boumeddiane, is believed to have fled to syria earlier this month. meanwhile, the associated press reported friday morning that the gare l'est train station in paris had been closed and evacuated due to a bomb threat. a police official, who was not authorized to be publicly named, told the ap that the station was closed "as a precaution," but would not give further details. the gare l'est is one of the major stations in paris, serving cities in eastern france and countries to the east. also friday, berlin police said that they had taken two men into custody on suspicion that they were recruiting fighters and procuring equipment and funding for the islamic state group, better known as isis, in syria. the two were picked up in a series of raids involving the search of 11 residences by 250 police officers. authorities said the raids were part of a months-long investigation into a small group of extremists based in berlin. however, they also said there was no evidence the group was planning attacks inside germany. the group's leader, identified only as 41-year-old ismet d. in accordance with privacy laws, is accused organizing the group of largely turkish and russian nationals to fight against "infidels" in syria. emin f., 43, is accused of being in charge of finances. those recruited include murat s., a 40-year-old turkish man who was arrested in september after returning from syria where had allegedly gone to fight. in an unrelated raid, german police arrested 26-year-old german-tunisian dual national into custody thursday on suspicion he had gone to fight with the terrorist group in syria. police made the arrest in wolfsburg, 120 miles outside berlin. earlier thursday, belgian authorities said they were looking into possible links between a man they arrested in the southern city of charleroi for illegal trade in weapons and coulibaly. the man arrested in belgium "claims that he wanted to buy a car from the wife of coulibaly," van der sypt said. "at this moment this is the only link between what happened in paris." van der sypt said that "of course, naturally" we are continuing the investigation. at first, the man came to police himself claiming there had been contact with coulibaly's common-law wife regarding the car, but he was arrested following a search of his premises when indications of illegal weapons trading were found. a belgian connection figured in a 2010 french criminal investigation into a foiled terrorist plot in which coulibaly was one of the convicted co-conspirators. the plotters included a brussels-area contact who was supposed to furnish both weapons and ammunition, according to french judicial documents obtained by the associated press. spain's national court said in a statement it was investigating what coulibaly did in the country's capital, madrid, with boumeddiene and a third person who wasn't identified but is suspected of helping boumeddiene get from turkey to syria. the associated press contributed to this report.

police in belgium, france, and germany make arrests in latest anti-terror raids

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washington (cnn) donald trump and ben carson now stand alone at the top of the republican field, as carly fiorina's brief foray into the top tier of candidates seeking the gop nomination for president appears to have ended, a new cnn/orc poll finds . fiorina has lost 11 points in the last month, declining from 15% support and second place to 4% and a tie for seventh place. at the same time, carson has gained eight points and joins trump as the only two candidates with support above 20%. as in early september before fiorina's spike in support, trump and carson are the first choice candidate of about half of the potential republican electorate. all told, nearly two-thirds of republican voters choose trump or carson as either their first or second choice for the nomination. hillary clinton launched her presidential bid on april 12 through a video message on social media. the former first lady, senator and secretary of state is considered the front-runner among possible democratic candidates."everyday americans need a champion, and i want to be that champion -- so you can do more than just get by -- you can get ahead. and stay ahead," she said in her announcement video. "because when families are strong, america is strong. so i'm hitting the road to earn your vote, because it's your time. and i hope you'll join me on this journey." ohio gov. john kasich joined the republican field july 21 as he formally announced his white house bid. "i am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support ... because i have decided to run for president of the united states," kasich told his kickoff rally at the ohio state university. ohio gov. john kasich joined the republican field july 21 as he formally announced his white house bid. "i am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support ... because i have decided to run for president of the united states," kasich told his kickoff rally at the ohio state university. sen. ted cruz of texas has made a name for himself in the senate, solidifying his brand as a conservative firebrand willing to take on the gop's establishment. he announced he was seeking the republican presidential nomination in a speech on march 23."these are all of our stories," cruz told the audience at liberty university in virginia. "these are who we are as americans. and yet for so many americans, the promise of america seems more and more distant." businessman donald trump announced june 16 at his trump tower in new york city that he is seeking the republican presidential nomination. this ends more than two decades of flirting with the idea of running for the white house."so, ladies and gentlemen, i am officially running for president of the united states, and we are going to make our country great again," trump told the crowd at his announcement. no other candidates made significant gains since the last cnn/orc poll conducted just after the republican debate hosted by cnn and the ronald reagan presidential library. the new poll comes amid a flurry of polling being released about a week before the gop candidates will again meet on the debate stage. the polling criteria set by the organizers of that debate, set to take place october 28, appear likely to result in 10 candidates taking the main stage. aside from wisconsin gov. scott walker, who ended his campaign shortly after last month's debate, it's likely to be a rematch of those who debated in simi valley. fiorina's decline comes across the demographic and political spectrum, with her support now topping out at 8% among those with college degrees. last month, she stood at 22% among the same group. fiorina has dropped 11 points among women and 12 points among men, fallen 18 points among independents, 17 points among those age 50 or older, and 15 points among conservatives. the poll finds republican voters increasingly satisfied with their field of choices, 32% say they are "very satisfied" with the group of candidates running for president, up from 23% in july. republicans also remain more enthusiastic about the presidential race than democratic voters. in the new poll, 68% of republican voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in next year's election, compared with 58% among democratic voters. those enthusiastic voters are even more strongly behind trump and carson than republican voters generally, while less enthusiastic republicans are more likely to say they back bush. trump's support among the enthusiastic voters is 30%, with carson at 25%, while bush's support dips to just 3%. among those who say they are "somewhat enthusiastic" or less, 22% back trump, 16% back carson and 15% back bush. there are some signs in the poll that carson's numbers get a boost if turnout in gop primaries and caucuses follows the same patterns it has in the past. carson runs about evenly with trump among the groups that make up the largest blocs of gop primary voters: conservatives, self-identified republicans and white evangelicals. carson also nearly matches trump's support among those voters with college degrees, with 24% backing trump, 23% backing carson and 13% backing rubio. a gender gap has reemerged in the data in the last month, with carson matching trump's support among women (23% back each) with bush behind at 9%, huckabee at 7% and fiorina and rubio each at 6% among gop women. trump has larger edges over carson among men (31% to 21%, with rubio at 10%) and independents who lean toward the republican party (32% trump to 19% carson). the cnn/orc poll was conducted by telephone october 14-17 among a random national sample of 1,028 adults. results among the 465 registered voters who say they are republicans or independents who lean toward the republican party have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

poll: donald trump, ben carson dominate gop field as fiorina falters

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corrections & clarifications: an earlier version of this story misstated the number of american pows who died in japanese<u+00a0>camps during world war ii. hiroshima, japan <u+2014><u+00a0>president obama made an emotional and historic visit to this<u+00a0>once-shattered city friday, embracing survivors of the aug. 6, 1945, atomic bomb blast and renewing calls for an end to nuclear weapons. he did not, however, apologize for the decision to drop the bomb. "we come to hiroshima to ponder the terrible forces unleashed in the not so distant past. we come to mourn the dead," obama said in a speech at hiroshima<u+2019>s peace memorial park. an estimated 140,000 people <u+2014><u+00a0>including a dozen captured american airmen and thousands of forced laborers from korea <u+2014><u+00a0>were killed in the world<u+2019>s first atomic bombing at hiroshima. another 70,000 people died in the atomic bombing of nagasaki three days later. friday<u+2019>s visit was the first by a sitting u.s. head of state and appeared carefully crafted to focus on reconciliation, rather than troubling questions of wartime blame or responsibility. atomic bomb survivor groups in the past have called for the united states to apologize for the hiroshima and nagasaki bombings, which they call inhumane. some american veterans and former prisoners of war have opposed an apology, arguing that the twin bombings saved lives by hastening the end of a long and cruel war. japan surrendered unconditionally on aug. 15, 1945, nine days after the hiroshima bombing. during the hour-long visit, obama and prime minister shinzo abe laid wreaths at a cenotaph dedicated to bombing victims, toured the peace park and an adjoining museum<u+00a0>and met privately with bomb survivors. the park is located near ground zero of the hiroshima bombing and features the iconic <u+201c>a-bomb dome<u+201d> <u+2013> a burned out commercial exhibition building that was one of the few structures near the epicenter that remained standing. the cenotaph includes the names of all victims of the hiroshima bombing,<u+00a0>including 12 american airman who were being held in the city at the time of the attack. in a poignant moment after his speech, obama shared an extended public embrace with 79-year-old shigeaki mori. the hiroshima bomb survivor spent more than 35 years tracking down relatives of the american airmen, whose fate had remained unknown for decades. in his speech, obama said mori <u+201c>sought out the families of americans who were killed here because he believed their loss was equal to his own.<u+201d> barry frechette, a filmmaker who produced a recent documentary on mori<u+2019>s decades-long quest, said mori and other survivors are not looking for an apology. <u+201c>the most important thing we can do is recognize what happened, and understand the horrible consequences of war,<u+201d> frechette said in an email interview from his home in the united states.<u+00a0> <u+201c>we heard from u.s. pow families about how terrible a sacrifice was paid in the loss of their loved ones. but we also heard what terrible consequences were paid on the japanese side, too, especially to civilians.<u+201d> obama and abe spoke before about 100 invited guests, including aging bomb victims and local high school students, and hundreds of japanese and foreign journalists. the peace park, one of the most popular visitor sites in japan, was closed to the public friday as a security precaution. but large and seemingly supportive crowds began gathering outside the grounds early in the day. matt steckling, 25, a chicago native who has lived in hiroshima for about a year and a half, was among people in the large crowd just prior to obama<u+2019>s arrival and said he was curious to witness the event. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to mean a lot for people here to see him come and lay flowers and pay his respects. no one expects him to apologize <u+2014><u+00a0>the gesture, the visit alone, is enough,<u+201d> steckling said. obama<u+2019>s visit followed a two-day summit with leaders of the group of seven industrialized democracies in ise-shima in central japan.<u+00a0> anticipation had been growing that obama would visit hiroshima after secretary of state john kerry become the highest-ranking cabinet member to visit the city last month. recent polls have shown that most japanese wanted obama to visit hiroshima, but no longer thought an apology was necessary. kinue tokudome, executive director of the u.s.-japan dialogue on pows, said she was disappointed that no american former prisoners of war were invited to attend the ceremony<u+00a0>but hoped obama<u+2019>s visit would have a positive influence. more than 10,000 americans died in japanese camps during world war ii, often under appalling conditions. a u.s. pow support group announced last week that the white house had invited a former pow to accompany obama during friday<u+2019>s visit. but the white house later said that no such invitation had been extended. "i believe president obama's visit to hiroshima is a good thing and hope that it will encourage us, japanese and americans, to have more open and honest dialogue on our shared history,<u+201d> she said. "our visit to hiroshima will honor all those who were lost in world war ii and reaffirm our shared vision of a world without nuclear weapons," obama said at a press conference this week. japan surrendered on aug. 15, 1945.<u+00a0>obama was awarded the 2009 nobel peace prize largely on his stated goal of controlling the spread of nuclear weapons.

sympathy for victims but no apology as obama makes historic hiroshima visit

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back when i was a pup of a reporter, a wise old editor at the new york times pulled me aside after i submitted a news story with too much attitude. his name was shelly binn, and i<u+2019>ll never forget the bright red line he drew for me. <u+201c>nobody expects you to be objective,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s impossible because we all have feelings and opinions. but you have to be fair to both sides, no matter how you feel.<u+201d> there it was, a golden rule of journalism: objectivity is a myth, fairness is a must. obviously, the cnbc debate moderators never got the lesson. the news business is in trouble and overt displays of media bias of the kind we witnessed wednesday are a big reason. technology and changing lifestyles have fractured markets and wrecked revenues, but self-inflicted wounds compound the damage. the moderators<u+2019> relentless badgering, arrogance and ignorance toward the gop candidates was so bad that their performance was universally panned, no small feat at a time when the media, like everything else, is polarized. the tenor provoked astonishment over the failure of network brass to recognize the black eye coming its way. to continue reading michael goodwin's column in the new york post, click here. michael goodwin is a fox news contributor and new york post columnist.

a golden rule for journalists: objectivity is a myth but fairness is a must

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the los angeles times editorial board's endorsement comes four days before california holds its crucial primary. it wrote that although "california's democratic primary owe a debt of gratitude to bernie sanders for a campaign that has emphasized issues that otherwise might have been ignored," the voters "should cast their votes for hillary clinton." the editorial board wrote that clinton "is not only more knowledgeable about domestic and international affairs than sanders, but also more likely to achieve objectives they have in common." the board also opined friday that clinton has a "steadiness, seriousness and a commanding grasp of issues about which the blowhard businessman is dangerously ignorant." the paper was not shy in noting clinton's liabilities, though, writing that the former first lady has a "penchant for secrecy and self-protection" as reflected in her exclusive use of a private email server while she served as secretary of state. the california primary is expected to put clinton well over the number of delegates she needs to clinch the democratic nomination. clinton nodded to as much during her swing through the state on friday. "if all things are expect to occur as i hope they will, by tuesday, i will have captured the democratic nomination for president," clinton said in westminster.

los angeles times backs clinton over sanders

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puerto rico<u+2019>s economic crisis meant jeffrey rondon, 25, struggled to find even part-time work, so he recently joined the growing exodus from his caribbean island to florida. now he holds a full-time restaurant job and something that could upend the 2016 presidential election <u+2014> the right to vote in florida, the biggest of all swing states. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s important to vote and be heard <u+2014> it<u+2019>s a privilege,<u+201d> said rondon, who is one of thousands of puerto ricans who have moved to florida in the past year. as u.s. citizens, puerto ricans are relatively easy to register to vote, and they are attracting unprecedented attention because they could change the political calculus in a state that president obama won by the thinnest of margins in 2012: 50<u+00a0>percent to 49.1<u+00a0>percent. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a potential game changer for the state,<u+201d> said mark hugo lopez, director of hispanic research at the pew research center. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s the biggest movement of people out of puerto rico since the great migration of the 1950s.<u+201d> [is it lights out for puerto rico?] puerto rican voters tend to lean democratic, but a great number of the newcomers do not identify with any party, making them appealing targets for politicians and recruiters on both sides. like those living in other u.s. territories, people in puerto rico cannot vote for president in the u.s. general election. former florida governor jeb bush, who is leading the large number of republican presidential candidates in florida polls, recently made a high-profile visit to puerto rico. on monday, he will address three separate gatherings in orlando, and among those with whom he is meeting are many puerto ricans and other hispanics. hillary rodham clinton, the leading democratic presidential candidate, has visited the island in the past and polled very well with puerto ricans when she ran for president in 2008. <u+201c>i think you are going to see a hyper-focus in florida, the likes of which we have never seen. i do think puerto ricans can change the political landscape,<u+201d> said crist<u+00f3>bal alex, president of the democratic-backed latino victory project. jennifer sevilla korn, who works on hispanic outreach as the republican national committee<u+2019>s deputy political director of strategic initiatives, said that the gop has been watching the shifting demographics of florida and that the puerto rican vote <u+201c>is definitely rising in importance.<u+201d> <u+201c>it<u+2019>s been growing for years,<u+201d> she said, adding that in 2016, <u+201c>you have to get a good portion of puerto rican votes to win florida.<u+201d> she said republicans are building community relationships, opening offices in heavily hispanic neighborhoods, going door to door and showing up at latino events of every size, <u+201c>from 30 to 30,000 people<u+201d> and setting up gop booths <u+201c>i see the vote as up for grabs,<u+201d> she said. [puerto rican debt crisis forces its way onto presidential political agenda] puerto rico, a u.s. commonwealth, has been struggling with $72<u+00a0>billion in debt and soaring unemployment. the pew research center calculates that the island<u+2019>s population dropped by 11,000 people a year in the 1990s, but between 2010 and 2013, the loss accelerated to 48,000 a year. this year, with economic problems growing, the number leaving for the mainland is even higher. florida <u+2014> particularly the area around orlando in central florida <u+2014> has become the hottest destination for puerto ricans. disney world and the many jobs associated with the tourist industry around it offer entry-level jobs. puerto rican professionals and entrepreneurs also are relocating to florida, which they see as a welcoming place where it is ever easier to find a shop with a puerto rican flag, food and music. in addition, a growing number of puerto ricans from new york, chicago and elsewhere on the mainland are moving to central florida, or, as many call it, <u+201c>little puerto rico.<u+201d> <u+201c>the weather is better here than new york!<u+201d> said larry rivera, the new york-born manager of kissimmee<u+2019>s melao bakery, which features puerto rican sweets and offerings such as mofongo, a fried plantain dish with garlic. rivera said everyone is talking about all the newcomers. he sees the influx in the lines of puerto ricans at melao that sometimes stretch out the door. <u+201c>i see all the new faces, and i see that when people are applying for jobs, their last address was the island,<u+201d> he said. rondon, who moved to florida in october to find work, was recently hired at melao. jobs were so hard to come by in bayamon, on the north side of the island, that rondon said he could earn only $150 a week with part-time work at home depot. so he, his brother and his mother relocated to florida, and he now works 40 hours a week or more and earns three times what he did. his dream, he said, is to own a home in florida, and he is excited about voting in the u.s. presidential election for the first time. he says he has a <u+201c>good feeling about hillary clinton,<u+201d> but the candidate he has heard the most about is donald trump, so, he says, <u+201c>i need to learn more.<u+201d> puerto rico<u+2019>s party system is different from the u.s. system. though there is no general-election presidential vote, there are republican and democratic presidential primaries on the island, and delegates are sent to the national conventions. some puerto ricans blame politicians for wrecking the island<u+2019>s economy and say they are in no hurry to have anything to do with politics. but big efforts are underway to engage the newcomers. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m telling them if you don<u+2019>t vote, you don<u+2019>t count <u+2014> it<u+2019>s like you don<u+2019>t exist,<u+201d> said jeamy ramirez, 37, who works for mi familia vota, a national nonprofit group that registers latinos. she said her group has signed up about 3,000 new voters in central florida since march, a great number of whom were puerto rican and did not register with either party. one of the newcomers ramirez registered is yarinneth castro, 26, who arrived two months ago. the college student, who hopes to be a court psychologist, said she will be listening for a candidate who addresses her two big issues: better health-care coverage and help for puerto rico. <u+201c>i am interested in the person, not the party,<u+201d> she said. in a state famous for razor-thin margins of electoral victory, the influx of thousands of people is mobilizing many activists. <u+201c>everyone remembers that george w. bush won florida by 537 votes in 2000. you are talking about 1,000 families coming here a month. it<u+2019>s stunning,<u+201d> said anthony suarez, president of the puerto rican bar association in florida. he has helped organize a bipartisan forum that he calls <u+201c>political salsa<u+201d> to engage newcomers on the issues. mark oxner, chairman of the osceola county republican party, said, <u+201c>we<u+2019>re telling them what the republican party stands for and that a lot of their values align with the republican party,<u+201d> especially on social issues such as opposition to abortion. he added, <u+201c>we need to reach out to the puerto rican base and tell them we believe in the same things.<u+201d> state sen. darren soto, a democrat, is running to be florida<u+2019>s first puerto rican in congress. he is seeking the 9th district seat vacated by alan grayson, a democrat who is running for the u.s. senate. many democrats hope that soto<u+2019>s candidacy in central florida will energize puerto rican turnout in the presidential year. the puerto rican vote <u+201c>helped barack obama win florida twice,<u+201d> soto said, and now, <u+201c>because of the higher influx, it will be a bigger factor.<u+201d> puerto rican elected officials from new york and chicago plan to come down early next year to hold political rallies. in 2014, caravans of cars where organized to get the vote out <u+2014> as many as 70 cars bearing puerto rican flags blaring through a neighborhood <u+2014> and there will be bigger efforts in 2016. soto said those coming from puerto rico can register to vote fairly easily <u+2014> they simply have to prove residency, as people do when they get a driver<u+2019>s license, by showing utility bills or rental leases. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s no different than a person moving here from new york,<u+201d> he said. soraya marquez, the state coordinator for mi familia vota, said her team goes to supermarkets, housing complexes and festivals <u+2014> anywhere people gather <u+2014> to ask people whether they want to register. after finding out whether a person is a u.s. citizens, they usually use a florida driver<u+2019>s license or identification card to get the person<u+2019>s details and help them sign up. the group hands the voter applications over to the state supervisor of elections. if that office approves the application, it mails the person a voting card, usually within two weeks. marquez said mi familia vota aims to register 10,000 people in central florida this year and 20,000 more next year. many other groups are helping people register, too. vivian rodriguez, chairman of the democratic hispanic caucus of florida, said registering to vote is key, but that<u+2019>s just the beginning. <u+201c>nobody anticipated this large migration, but it is changing politics,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a good opportunity for us. but we have a lot of work to do.<u+201d> scott clement in washington contributed to this report.

exodus from puerto rico could upend florida vote in 2016 presidential race

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miami - republican presidential candidate marco rubio dropped out of the race for president tuesday, ending his white house bid after a humbling loss in his home state to donald trump. "it is not god's plan that i be president in 2016 or maybe ever," the florida senator told a crowd of supporters in miami. while he didn't name trump, rubio warned against embracing his brand of divisive politics: "i ask the american people, do not give into the fear, do not give into the frustration," he said. rubio's decision was prompted by losses in all but three of the presidential nomination contests, but florida's winner-take-all primary proved the most devastating. only six years earlier, he was a tea party favorite who crushed the gop's "establishment" candidate to win a seat in the u.s. senate. but the political tables turned on him in the 2016 presidential race, where he was lambasted as mainstream in a year when voters cried out for an outsider. in the final week, he dedicated time and resources almost exclusively to the sunshine state, urging voters to stop trump from "hijacking" the republican party. he went so far as to tell his supporters in ohio to vote for buckeye state governor john kasich since his chances were better to win there. despite his intense rivalry with trump, rubio only indirectly criticized him during much of the campaign. he pivoted to an all-out assault on the businessman's character and ethics after a dismal super tuesday performance march 1, when he clinched only one of the 11 contests. in recent weeks, the attacks deviated from policy to personal. at one point, rubio equated trump's small hands with his manhood. but the strategy backfired with voters and donors and rubio later said he regretted the attacks. like other republicans, rubio had pledged to support the eventual gop nominee. but, in recent days, he expressed having second thoughts. he told reporters saturday that the chaos and divisiveness at trump's rallies, including the one in chicago canceled last week, had made it harder for him to view the front-runner as a viable candidate. the 44-year-old senator had seemed destined for the national spotlight. time magazine placed him on its cover in early 2013, dubbing him the "republican savior." in under a decade, he had gone from west miami commissioner to state legislator to florida house speaker. in 2010, he challenged a sitting governor for a u.s. senate seat and won after starting more than 50 percentage points behind in the polls, catapulted by a wave of tea party supporters. he launched his presidential campaign at the miami freedom tower, where tens of thousands of his fellow cuban-americans had been processed as refugees. he promised lower taxes, less regulation, tighter federal spending, modernized immigration laws, and the repeal and replacement of obamacare. at the time, rubio's friend and one-time mentor, former florida gov. jeb bush, seemed his biggest hurdle to get to the oval office. enter trump. by mid-summer, he turned the bush-rubio rivalry into a telenovela without the sizzle. bush dropped out after the feb. 20 south carolina primary. in the iowa caucuses, rubio came in a better-than-expected third place, nearly beating trump for second. he then banked on a big showing in new hampshire but a stunningly poor debate performance - in which he frequently repeated talking points and was called "scripted" by rival chris christie - led to a dismal fifth place. "our disappointment tonight is not on you. it's on me," he told supporters that night. rubio came in second in south carolina and nevada, but on march 1, super tuesday, he collected just one win in 11 contests. the final blow came two weeks later, at home. copyright 2016 the associated press. all rights reserved. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

marco rubio ends bid after losing his home state

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the gunmen seized 170 hostages in the attack on friday. malian soldiers, along with us and french special forces, rescued hostages as they attempted to regain control of the hotel. could the juvenile suspects in the tennessee wildfires be tried as adults? update at 9:30 pm eastern time:<u+00a0>heavily armed islamic extremists seized dozens of hostages friday at a radisson hotel, but malian troops, backed by us and french special forces, swarmed in to retake the building and free many of the terrified captives, according to the associated press. at least 20 people, including one american, were killed along with two gunmen during the more than seven-hour siege, a malian military commander said. gunmen seized a luxury hotel in the malian capital of bamako friday and took 170 people hostage, killing at least three of them<u+00a0>while some 20 others have been released. the malian military said 10 gunmen stormed the radisson blu hotel shouting<u+00a0>"allahu akbar," or "god is great," in arabic before firing on hotel guards friday morning. malian soldiers, with help from united nations peacekeeping troops, currently have the hotel surrounded. a malian military official told the associated press that three deaths were confirmed. two of the dead are malian and the other is a french national, according to<u+00a0>cnn. it also appears that those who have been released were made to recite koranic verses first, reuters reports. the news wire also reports that the gunmen are currently making their way through the hotel floor by floor. the rezidor hotel group, which operates<u+00a0>the radisson blu, released a statement saying 30<u+00a0>the hostages were hotel staff and the other 140 were guests. the 190-room hotel, located near government ministries and diplomatic offices, is popular among foreigners in the former french colony. turkish airlines said that six of its crew members are part of the hostage hold-up.<u+00a0>chinese, french, and belgian nationals are also believed to be inside. there was no immediate claim of responsibility, but this year has seen an uptick in jihadist violence across mali. an attack on a restaurant in bamako in march was the first time the capital had been attacked in years. in 2012, after a coup in bamako, mali's north fell under the control of islamic extremists who took advantage of a tuareg uprising. in 2013, the french army took control of the north and a un-brokered peace deal was signed with tuareg separatists. france and other western nations have been working with the malian government to prevent the islamist militants from regaining a foothold in the north. a un spokesman said that the radisson blu was host to a large delegation of un workers involved in the ongoing peace process. in august, nine people, including four members of the un mission, were killed in a hotel attack<u+00a0>in the central town of sevare after heavily armed gunmen entered a hotel popular with european military officers. the attacks was significant because the popular tourist town was the demarcation line between government-controlled areas of mali and those that were controlled by islamist militants, the wall street journal reports. the christian science monitor reported in august that<u+00a0>there were signs that militants were strategically moving south to places like bamako, after having been confined to cities such as timbuktu in the north. "it's a troubling sign that the armed islamist groups are intent on stepping up the pressure both on the malian government and on the un and french presence," bruce whitehouse, a mali expert and associate professor at lehigh university, told ap. "they want to show they are not just contained within the north and that they're not afraid to confront their primary enemies where they're strongest."

mali: at least 20 dead after gunmen storm luxury hotel in capital

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but by amplifying his charge that president barack obama doesn't love america, former new york mayor rudy giuliani appears ready to risk sullying the powerful mythology that grew around his leadership when he steadied and steeled the nation in the terrible, confusing time after 9/11. since those fleeting days when he was a unifying figure, giuliani has more often dealt in waspish rhetoric and savage mockery -- especially of a president he says has "failed." "america's mayor" has gone rogue, lashing out at democrats and liberal orthodoxy on the war on terror and saying, for example, during the ferguson controversy last year that the biggest danger to a black child was not from a white police officer but from another african american. the latest firestorm over obama's patriotism may complete giuliani's political journey from the center left of the republican party to the conservative jungles where sarah palin and donald trump roam. "rudy has devolved into this red meat republican base ideologue who periodically seems to need self identification," said douglas muzzio, a political scientist at baruch college and a new york city media commentator. "maybe it is rudy in his dotage, where he has lost whatever boundaries he once had. he sounds like a bitter old man." giuliani seems to be relishing his moment back in the spotlight. but he's also causing awkward moments for republican candidates limbering up for a crack at the presidency in 2016 -- a fact the white house was quick to exploit on friday. "it's sad to see when somebody who has attained a certain level of public stature, and even admiration, tarnishes that legacy so thoroughly," said obama's spokesman, josh earnest. "and the truth is, i don't take any joy, or vindication, or satisfaction from that. i think, really, the only thing that i feel is i feel sorry for rudy giuliani today." democratic national committee chairman debbie wasserman schultz also joined in, seeking to use giuliani to frustrate the gop's effort to short circuit controversies which could tarnish the party's image. "now is the time for its leaders to stop this kind of nonsense. enough," she said. giuliani's blast, delivered in a closed door republican dinner, and repeated in a media tour, centers on a claim that obama was not brought up to "love" his country like most americans. it's a familiar charge from the conservative fringe, that obama is somehow different and doesn't view america as an exceptional paragon but is obsessed with apologizing for its failings. "i do not believe, and i know this is a horrible thing to say, but i do not believe the president loves america," giuliani was quoted as saying by politico. asked by fox news host megyn kelly thursday whether he wanted to apologize, giuliani replied: "not at all. i want to repeat it." "i don't feel this love of america," giuliani said. "i believe his initial approach is to criticize the united states." giuliani dug in further in an interview with the new york times, rejecting the idea that his remarks were born of racism. "i thought that was a joke, since (obama) was brought up by a white mother, a white grandfather, went to white schools, " said giuliani. "this isn't racism. this is socialism or possibly anti-colonialism," said giuliani. far from being chastened, giuliani, who wore a conspiratorial grin on fox news, seems gleeful in the firestorm. his behavior might be explained by a boxing maxim he was taught as a boy, which may also shed light on his calmness on 9/11. "my father taught me ... when you get hit in the face for the first time, you're going to panic," giuliani said in an interview with forbes magazine in 2011. "instead of panicking, just accept it. stay calm. and any time anybody hits you, they always leave themselves open to be hit." giuliani's actions may be both a glimpse at his political philosophy and reflect a decision to wade into the political echo chamber to solidify his standing among a certain group of conservatives. "he understands political posturing, he understands the effectiveness of rhetoric," said errol louis, a cnn political commentator from new york. "he clearly wants to play a role on the national stage. i guess he has chosen the role of bulldog -- go after the president, attack him, make wild accusations." with a failed presidential campaign behind him, and having been out of office for a decade-and-a-half, it may be that giuliani sees his future on the conservative talk circuit. "to the extent that giuliani will be involved in the game moving forward, it will be as a commentator or an analyst," said costas panagopoulos, a campaigns expert at fordham university, new york. "in order to do that successfully these days, it helps to be controversial, sometimes inflammatory. i am not surprised that he has become increasingly forceful in his comments in the media. he is convinced that will help him." giuliani has rarely been known to back down. he was a yankee fan growing up in brooklyn, a ruthless prosecutor who took on unions and the mob and a hard driving republican who ran a liberal city. when he awoke on september 11, 2001, giuliani was a polarizing figure with a large ego and a sharp tongue. he might have purged new york street crime but was starting to grate on the city's nerves at the end of his second term. within hours, with a staggering display of calm, purpose and leadership, he had recast himself as a modern-era winston churchill, steadying and inspiring his people in their darkest hour. his heroics were such that he became one of those politicians who become known by a single name. marching up broadway, he grabbed a mike and told people to evacuate southern manhattan. he conjured up national resolve and resistance, as a country waited hours to see its president, out of sight on air force one. "people tonight should say a prayer, for the people that we have lost, and be grateful that we are all here," he said in a late night press conference 12 hours after the twin towers came crashing down in a toxic cloud of fire and ash. "tomorrow new york is going to be here and we are going to rebuild and we are going to be stronger from before." making giuliani its man of the year, time magazine said: "when the day of infamy came, giuliani seized it as if he had been waiting for it all his life." but he struggled to meet huge expectations. his 2008 presidential campaign was a bust, plagued by poor organization and his liberal views on social issues that conflicted with the conservative base. but there was also a sense that he was playing the september 11 card too much: joe biden's crack that there were "only three things he mentions in a sentence, a noun a verb and 9/11" was funny because it bore more than a ring of truth. that was years ago now. but while his years of elective office are behind him, giuliani still seems to pine for the political spotlight. so he has every incentive to keep this row going as long as he can.

rudy giuliani's fall from america's mayor

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fox news is not exactly known as an ally of the obama administration, especially when it comes to disputes between obama and house speaker john boehner, or disputes between obama and israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. yet two prominent fox news hosts, chris wallace and shepherd smith, harshly criticized boehner and netanyahu on friday for secretly arranging<u+00a0>a netanyahu speech to congress that is transparently aimed at undermining president obama, and set up without the white house's knowledge. the white house, state department, and many foreign policy observers, including prominent former us ambassador to israel martin indyk, expressed outrage over the move. and, in a sign of just how many lines boehner and netanyahu crossed, so did the two fox news hosts. "i agree 100 percent," wallace said when smith read a quote from indyk criticizing the boehner-netanyahu maneuver. wallace went on: and to make you get a sense of really how, forgive me, wicked, this whole thing is, the secretary of state john kerry met with the israeli ambassador to the united states for two hours on tuesday, ron dermer. the ambassador, never mentioned the fact that netanyahu was in negotiations and finally agreed to come to washington, not to see the president, but to go to capitol hill, speak to a joint session of congress and criticize the president's policy. i have to say i'm shocked. smith said, "it seems like [netanyahu's government] think[s] we don't pay attention and that we're just a bunch of complete morons, the united states citizens, as if we wouldn't pick up on what's happening here." wallace pointed out that netanyahu might face political backlash in israel over this "very risky political strategy," which could damage israel's relationship with the united states. here is the backstory: on wednesday, boehner announced that he had invited netanyahu to come speak to a joint session of congress in late february (later pushed to early march) on obama's nuclear negotiations with iran, which both boehner and netanyahu oppose, and which republicans are seeking to blow up by forcing new, deal-killing sanctions on iran. what made this such a remarkable breach is that boehner had reached over obama to make the invitation, which he and netanyahu kept secret from the white house. that is a major breach in us foreign policy, which is supposed to be unified; things like official visits by heads of state almost always go through the white house. perhaps worse, republicans are letting a foreign leader use the floor of congress to bash the american president, thus not just allowing but helping a foreign country meddle in american foreign policy. (this is not the first time either. republicans invited netanyahu to speak to congress in 2011, an opportunity he also used to lambast obama.) for his part, netanyahu is once again attempting to undermine the american president who is by far his most important ally, and is using congress as a campaign stop on his own bid for reelection in israel's march elections. "bibi and dermer might have finally gone too far" while backlash was anticipatable, netanyahu likely did not imagine it extending to fox news. "after watching this i think bibi [netanyahu] and [israeli ambassador to the us ron] dermer might have finally gone too far," lisa goldman, the director of the israel-palestine initiative at the new america foundation, wrote on facebook of the fox news segment. "they miscalculated the american zeitgeist and didn't realize that when a foreign power, even a favorite ally, shows a lack of respect for us institutions, a red line has been crossed." to goldman's point, both smith and wallace, in expressing outrage at netanyahu, pointed out that the israeli leader had defied president george w. bush's demand that israel cease settlement growth in the west bank, and had resisted bush's efforts at an israel-palestine peace deal. the issue, for them, was not principally one of partisan politics, but of this ostensible ally repeatedly mistreating the united states and its president, regardless of political party. if the netanyahu government and ron dermer's embassy are watching this, and they certainly should be, they should be alarmed that even this crucially important element of their american support base is beginning to see the netanyahu government as less of an ally.

even fox news is outraged at boehner and netanyahu's plan to undermine obama

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parker covered the trump campaign and transition for the times.

ryan and mcconnell confront their first big test

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

think the iowa polls were bad? wait until new hampshire

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as faith in american institutions falls, voters poised to hand 2016 races to two pillars of dishonesty. if the primaries tuesday<u+00a0>night go as expected, handing commanding victories to donald trump and hillary clinton, we might as well make it official: america's voters have given up on trust. in february, when gallup asked voters the first word that came to mind when they thought of clinton, the top answers were: <u+201c>dishonest/liar/don<u+2019>t trust her/poor character.<u+201d> as many people said<u+00a0>hillary is<u+00a0><u+201c>criminal/crooked/thief/belongs in jail<u+201d> as believed she is <u+201c>capable of being president/qualified.<u+201d><u+00a0>still, she is on her way to locking up the democratic presidential nomination. this was not an outlier poll. when quinnipiac<u+00a0>asked the same open-ended question last year, the most often cited word in connection with hillary was<u+00a0><u+201c>liar,<u+201d> followed by <u+201c>dishonest<u+201d> and <u+201c>untrustworthy.<u+201d><u+00a0> quinnipiac also found that trump and clinton had the worst scores among top candidates on honesty: 61%<u+00a0>said clinton was not honest and trustworthy; 54%<u+00a0>said the same about trump. only 23%<u+00a0>of voters in the quinnipiac poll said bernie sanders was not honest and trustworthy. in the new york primary <u+2014> which clinton won handily <u+2014> honesty was ranked as the second most important issue among voters;<u+00a0>80% of voters who put honesty first gave their votes to sanders, and<u+00a0>only 20% said the same for clinton. voters interested in experience and electability went ever more strongly for clinton. interestingly, in the quinnipiac poll the first word that came to mind when voters heard <u+201c>jeb bush<u+201d> was <u+201c>family<u+201d> followed by <u+201c>honest.<u+201d><u+00a0>we know what happened to him.<u+00a0>similarly, in a march abc news/washington post poll,<u+00a0>only 45% of republican leaners deemed trump <u+201c>trustworthy,<u+201d><u+00a0>but 63% labeled the now-vanquished marco rubio as having that quality. voters are so cynical about politicians <u+2014> like most everyone else in power <u+2014><u+00a0>that a reputation for being trustworthy doesn't translate into victory. this is a sad state of affairs<u+00a0>but not a surprise.<u+00a0>major institutions have been<u+00a0>losing the trust of the american people<u+00a0>for years.<u+00a0>according to gallup, <u+201c>2004 was the last year most institutions were at or above their historical average levels of confidence.<u+201d><u+00a0>banks, the supreme court, religious institutions and the government have seen a consistent decline of trust. in november 2008, as president-elect<u+00a0>obama was set to take office, democratic policy gurus bill galston and elaine kamarck wrote a paper, <u+201c>change you can believe in needs a government you can trust.<u+201d> the authors rang alarm bells about the decline of trust in government and the importance of restoring it.<u+00a0>they wrote, <u+201c>trust shapes the limits of political possibilities. when trust is high, policymakers may reasonably hope to enact and implement federal solutions to our most pressing problems. when trust is low <u+2026> policymakers face more constraints.<u+201d> the hope was obama could restore trust in government.<u+00a0>he didn<u+2019>t.<u+00a0>instead, we have reached the point where voters no longer seem able to conjure up the image of an honest and qualified politician. they'll<u+00a0>just choose the one they think is most qualified and live with the treachery. if the death of trust in politics is real, don't expect its demise to be any less important this fall in choosing between<u+00a0>donald trump and hillary clinton. their matching reputations for a flexible approach to the truth will likely cancel each other out. what is more disturbing<u+00a0>is that even if one of them were to emerge as clearly more trustworthy, there's not much reason to believe it would alter the dynamics of the race. and why would it? the only calculation voters seem to be making is what kind of lies they want to be told. in addition to its own editorials, usa today publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our<u+00a0>board of contributors.<u+00a0>to read more columns like this, go to the<u+00a0>opinion front page.

voters have given up on trust: kirsten powers

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

conservatives fear leaders soft on obamacare

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(cnn) "my son served in the army for four years. in iraq. he served because we love our country. as we should. now look at us?" muna mansour is gesturing around her at the slatted cargo hold she and her family -- all nine of them -- are trying to get comfortable in. they're squeezed in with two other families. on the ground by my feet, muna's middle grandchild is sleeping, curled up beside an oil drum. "there's nowhere to sleep, there's no food -- you can see how people are just thrown around all over the place," she said. muna is from buffalo in upstate new york. her family is among the dozens of americans caught in the crossfire of warring parties in yemen. and although many other countries evacuated their citizens, india most notably ferrying out around 5,000, the united states has said it is too dangerous for them to directly evacuate american nationals. for more than three weeks, neighboring saudi arabia has been conducting airstrikes in yemen. they want to drive out the shiite houthi rebels, whose opposition to the government grew from protests to a takeover of government buildings and some territory. at one time, the houthis held yemen's president under house arrest, before he escaped and fled. the bombings have decimated some cities, including aden, and foreigners find themselves trapped. "i was there when the indians picked up 200 of their people from the port. it was embarrassing. we were just sitting there waiting for someone to come and say 'ok where are the americans, let's pick them up,' " she said. "i called the riyadh embassy," she adds, referring to the u.s. embassy in neighboring saudi arabia. "i told them there were about 75 families here waiting at the port. my family has been waiting there for two weeks. we ran out of money, we ran out of food." the state department said it is too risky to conduct an evacuation of citizens from the area. "we have to make a decision based on the security situation and what is feasible to do," state department spokeswoman marie harf said earlier this month. "and given the situation in yemen is quite dangerous and unpredictable, doing something like sending in military assets even for an evacuation could put u.s. citizen lives at greater risk." a group of u.s. organizations, including the council on american-islamic relations and the american-arab anti-discrimination league, have filed a lawsuit against the state department and defense department over the government's stance on evacuations. it was purely coincidence that led to muna being on board this ship, a wooden vessel chartered by cnn to reach the port city of aden, in yemen. muna was visiting her sick father in aden when fighting broke out around her. with the houthi forces to the north and the waters of the gulf of aden to the south, the city is essentially besieged. it took us over 30 hours of travel -- and a lull in the fighting -- for us to be able to dock at one of aden's smaller ports. she has a "nice, normal life" in new york and said she couldn't wait to get back. our ship was the first the port had seen in over a week. we agreed to take back 60 refugees -- including 15 americans -- who had gathered at the port's gate when news of our arrival spread. but of course that's nowhere near enough. so many more are desperate to leave. i asked muna what life in aden was like. "my daughter-in-law would crouch down and hide in the kitchen," she recalls. "it was just bombs all the time. gunshots. people running down the street." she trails off into silence. for everyone here with us on the boat, there are families left behind. mothers and fathers. daughters and sons. the first night on board our boat had an almost festive air. our new passengers were laughing and sharing cigarettes, euphoric at their escape. one woman though was sitting alone on deck and i realized she was crying. she told me her 15-year-old son was trapped on the other side of one of the many front lines that are now etched into the city's streets. they'd waited for 10 days, but neither her son nor her parents could cross over to the port, in al tawahi district. too scared to risk missing the boat and endangering the lives of their other three children, her husband had convinced her to board. when they called to tell her son he also had news for them: he'd joined the fight against the houthi forces. for muna, her ordeal ended at djibouti port where christina higgins, the u.s. deputy chief of mission, was among the embassy staff waiting to meet them. i asked higgins about the sense of abandonment muna and many of the other americans trapped in yemen said they felt. "we have one of the branches of al qaeda that's especially active. there's the houthis -- neither of these two groups friendly to u.s. citizens. we've had to weigh very, very carefully what is the safest way, the best way for us to help them." higgins said ultimately each u.s. citizen is going to have to judge what is best for themselves and their families. "for many u.s. citizens, that's going to mean sheltering in place. for other u.s. citizens, we're actively working at getting information to them on different avenues for travel out of yemen." watching them hand out cookies, water and phones to reassure those waiting at home, it's clear the staff here are overjoyed to have some of their citizens safe and sound. there are many more though of course who are still in danger. there are no definitive records, but the 15 americans on board our ship said they had counted 75 more families waiting in aden port who couldn't afford an "exit/transport" fee being charged to depart aden. in this time of crisis, the $300-a-person fee wasn't an official tax, but something that local fishermen were charging to ferry passengers to the boat to board. that's 75 more families waiting for another happy coincidence to dock at aden's deserted ports.

stranded in yemen: americans left to find own way out

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clinton, in an appearance on "the tonight show," agreed that she and sanders are "in a tight race," a fact that she finds "pretty exciting." after noting she and sanders are close, host jimmy fallon reminded clinton that she once "had a 20-point lead at one point." "that is really artificial, all of those early soundings and polls," clinton said. "once you get into it, this is a democratic election for our nominee and it gets really close, exciting. and it really depends upon on who can make the best case that you can be the nominee to beat whoever the republicans put up and try to get your folks who support you to come out." she added, "i find it pretty exciting. this is not a job they give away. you really do have to work hard for. it is the hardest job in the world, so, i get up everyday and go right at it." in mid-2015, as both sanders and clinton launched their respective campaigns, polls showed the former secretary of state with leads as high as 60 points nationally in the last week, however, sanders has begun to close clinton's lead in national and early state polls. a new york times/cbs poll found clinton's national lead at 7 percentage points. clinton's interview with fallon was her second appearance on "the tonight show" as a presidential candidate and came on the same night as the fox business network hosted a republican debate. the former secretary of state told fallon that she usually doesn't watch the debates live because she loves "to be able to fast forward" through them. fallon said the republican candidates "might say something bad about" clinton during the debate, suggesting she should "have a drinking game where every time they say your name you do a shot." "i don't think i would make it past the first half hour," clinton remarked. fallon also goaded clinton into a comment on donald trump by telling the former senator that the republican front-runner has been talking about her on the campaign trail. clinton's response: "he is a lot more obsessed with me than i am with him." clinton and fallon closed the appearance by carrying out a mock interview, with fallon acting like he was interviewing clinton for the president of the united states. "how did you hear about the position," fallon asked. "are you willing to relocate," fallon followed up. "for the right job, i am," clinton responded. and fallon's final question: "lastly, is there an email address (where) we can reach you?" clinton's response: "you can follow me on snapchat."

hillary clinton says early lead was 'artificial'

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washington <u+2014> president obama sought to spotlight the effects of global warming saturday as he prepared to travel to alaska this coming week. <u+201c>alaskans are already living with its effects,<u+201d> he said in his weekly address. the state <u+2014> currently<u+00a0>experiencing one of its worst wildfire seasons on record <u+2014> is expected to see its average temperatures rise by<u+00a0>6 to 12 degrees if nothing is done to halt climate change, obama said.<u+00a0>four villages there are already in imminent danger from rising sea waters as sea ice and glaciers melt. <u+201c>this is all real. this is happening to our fellow americans right now,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>think about that. if another country threatened to wipe out an american town, we<u+2019>d do everything in our power to protect ourselves. climate change poses the same threat, right now.<u+201d> the president is striking a tricky balance between environmental conservation and energy production <u+2014><u+00a0>he has long supported expanded oil drilling off the alaskan coast, the very fuel that has contributed to global warming. obama is facing sharp criticism from environmentalists for his alaska trip, which begins monday. one activist organization, credo, said the president<u+2019>s visit is a symbol of <u+201c>the self-defeating hypocrisy of his policies on energy and climate.<u+201d> <u+201c>climate leaders don<u+2019>t drill the arctic,<u+201d> the group said in an online petition. <u+201c>talking about the urgency of climate change while allowing massive fossil fuel extraction isn<u+2019>t leadership, it<u+2019>s hypocrisy.<u+201d> obama said in his weekly address that he shares concerns about offshore oil drilling, noting he remembers the bp oil spill in the gulf <u+201c>all too well.<u+201d> but he said the united states still has to rely on oil and gas while it is<u+00a0>transitioning toward renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. <u+201c>as long as that<u+2019>s the case, i believe we should rely more on domestic production than on foreign imports, and we should demand the highest safety standards in the industry <u+2014> our own,<u+201d> obama said. he noted that while his administration issued a permit to shell to drill off the alaskan coast, it also mandated strict safety standards that the company has yet to meet. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a testament to how rigorous we<u+2019>ve applied those standards that shell has delayed and limited its exploration off alaska while trying to meet them,<u+201d> obama<u+00a0>said. <u+201c>the bottom line is, safety has been and will continue to be my administration<u+2019>s top priority when it comes to oil and gas exploration off america<u+2019>s precious coasts.<u+201d> during his three-day trip, obama is scheduled to participate in a climate change conference in anchorage, tour a glacier and travel to coastal fishing towns. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m looking forward to talking with alaskans about how we can work together to make america the global leader on climate change around the globe,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>because what<u+2019>s happening in alaska is happening to us. it<u+2019>s our wakeup call, and as long as i<u+2019>m president, america will lead the world to meet the threat of climate change before it<u+2019>s too late.<u+201d>

climate change happening 'right now,' obama says ahead of alaska trip

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spin and overstatement have long been a part of political rhetoric. but this year is pushing fact-checkers into overdrive. and that's not all bad. professional fact-checkers might be excused for being a tad exhausted this campaign season. tracking the public statements of 22 major-party candidates during the primaries was one thing. but a general election pitting donald trump against hillary clinton <u+2013> two candidates with abysmal scores for honesty<u+00a0>among voters<u+00a0><u+2013> is another, sending the fact-checking world into overdrive. is mr. trump really worth $10 billion, as he claims? (not according to forbes magazine.)<u+00a0>is it true that mrs. clinton <u+201c>slept<u+201d> during the benghazi terror attack in 2012, as trump says? (no, according to clinton testimony.) was clinton allowed to use a personal email server when she was secretary of state, as she has asserted? (no, according to a recent report by the state department<u+2019>s office of the inspector general.) trump alone is enough to keep the entire fact-checking industry afloat. when the flamboyant billionaire gave a big speech recently denouncing clinton, the associated press assigned 12 reporters just to check the veracity of his assertions <u+2013> <u+201c>a whole platoon of journalistic talent that could have been doing other things,<u+201d> moaned washington post media critic erik wemple. it<u+2019>s easy to get discouraged by all the charges of lying hurled around <u+2013> lyin<u+2019> ted, lyingcrookedhillary (both a verbal trump charge and the name of a trump campaign site), handouts from the clinton campaign that lay out trump<u+2019>s <u+201c>lies, hypocrisy, and catastrophic ideas.<u+201d> and certainly, to some voters, the whole tone of the campaign is so depressing, the answer is just to tune out and stay home on election day. but to veteran fact-checkers, it<u+2019>s the time to shine. angie drobnic holan, editor in chief of the pulitzer prize-winning site politifact.com, says she<u+2019>s <u+201c>really optimistic,<u+201d> citing the growth of media fact-checking. <u+201c>you can have a cynical take on that, but mine is more optimistic,<u+201d> because fact-checking is especially needed this year, she says. <u+201c>donald trump is a candidate who has persistent problems with accuracy, and i<u+2019>m heartened that there<u+2019>s widespread recognition that this is someone who needs to be fact-checked.<u+201d> trump supporters, not surprisingly, disagree. jeffrey lord, a regular on cnn defending trump, calls media fact-checkers <u+201c>elitist<u+201d> and says the candidates themselves do a better job of countering each other<u+2019>s assumptions. this <u+201c>self-policing<u+201d> concept sounds a bit like having a basketball game with no referees. and besides, it<u+2019>s just not going to happen. media fact-checking is here to stay. so are politicians who say things that aren<u+2019>t true and accuse each other of lying. but there<u+2019>s a spectrum of political speech: there are out-and-out lies <u+2013> deliberately false statements meant to deceive <u+2013> then there are statements that are unintentionally false, exaggerations, and spin. sorting through the differences can be impossible, as it requires knowing what<u+2019>s inside the speaker<u+2019>s head. and what about a candidate who makes big promises, knowing they can<u+2019>t be fulfilled? that<u+2019>s another form of political speech that is less-than-truthful, but which voters have come to expect <u+2013> and often excuse. in a recent focus group, veteran pollster peter hart asked 12 republicans if they thought a president trump would ever actually build a wall across the mexican border. eight people voted no. same with his promise to deport the 11 million illegal immigrants in the us. and yet most of the 12 were fine that these promises would likely go unfulfilled. <u+201c>they don<u+2019>t hear a pledge, they hear, <u+2018>i<u+2019>m going to do something,<u+2019> <u+201c> says kathleen hall jamieson, director of the university of pennsylvania<u+2019>s annenberg public policy center, which sponsored the focus group. but making pie-in-the-sky promises is one thing. statements of fact that prove false are another, and that<u+2019>s where fact-checkers are having a field day. politifact has judged 174 statements by trump so far, and found only 16 to be either true or mostly true.<u+00a0>seventy have been judged false, and another 34 rated <u+201c>pants on fire,<u+201d> referring to claims that are <u+201c>not only inaccurate but also ridiculous,<u+201d> according to ms. holan. with clinton, politifact has judged 218 statements and rated 112 true or mostly true, 24 false, and three <u+201c>pants on fire.<u+201d> the next question is whether the assessments of politifact and other fact-checkers actually penetrate public consciousness? <u+201c>our traffic is better than it<u+2019>s ever been,<u+201d> says holan, whose site is affiliated with the tampa bay times. <u+201c>media organizations are doing fact-checking in part because it<u+2019>s very popular with readers.<u+201d> professor jamieson, whose annenberg center launched the first political fact-checking website, factcheck.org, in 2003, is less sanguine. <u+201c>fact-checking has never been more important, more complicated, and less likely to reach its target audience with the desired corrected information,<u+201d> jamieson says. part of the problem is the ever-accelerating news cycle. <u+201c>in order to get a correction through, you have to get people to stand still long enough to hear it,<u+201d> she says. another issue, particularly for fact-checking operations attached to news sites, is low public opinion of the media. only 6 percent of americans have a <u+201c>great deal of confidence<u+201d> in the press, according to a survey released in april by the media insight project. holan of politifact says that when readers accuse her site of partisan bias against trump, she counters with data that show republicans who do well on the politifact <u+201c>truth-o-meter,<u+201d> such as jeb bush. of course, former governor bush didn<u+2019>t do very well as a presidential candidate; voters don<u+2019>t necessarily favor a candidate because he or she is more factual. moreover, for a slice of the electorate, this cycle reflects a break from politics as usual <u+2013> and that includes an embrace of candidates who speak to voters without the filter of polls, focus groups, and scripted statements.

how 2016 became the fact-check election

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this is what a full-fledged feeding frenzy looks like. with donald trump facing the roughest stretch of his candidacy, the media have moved from questioning his sanity to depicting a campaign in disarray and top republicans still wondering whether they can dump the nominee. that won<u+2019>t happen, of course, but it<u+2019>s an indication of the toxic nature of the coverage and the flood of anti-trump leaks now washing across the media landscape. there<u+2019>s a natural piling-on effect when campaigns go off the rails: the polls dip, the critics step up their rhetoric, staffers start pointing fingers, and the press keeps the vicious cycle going. but i<u+2019>ve never seen anything like this. things reached the point yesterday morning that cnbc<u+2019>s john harwood tweeted: <u+201c>longtime ally of paul manafort, trump's campaign manager: 'manafort not challenging trump anymore. mailing it in. staff suicidal.'" and there was this from cnn: <u+201c>a source tells @danabashcnn that some trump campaign staff are frustrated w/ candidate lately, <u+2018>feel like they are wasting their time.<u+2019>" i am told by knowledgeable campaign sources that manafort is not going anywhere and believes that trump will be getting back on message. i am further told that reports of a planned <u+201c>intervention<u+201d> with the candidate, led by newt gingrich and rudy giuliani, are false. and the sources also say that, contrary to media reports, party chairman reince priebus is not furious with trump, though he is disappointed with the nominee<u+2019>s refusal to endorse paul ryan. trump and the house speaker appear to have an increasingly tenuous relationship. trump is also refusing to back john mccain, one of several republicans who ripped him for his handling of the khizr khan controversy. manafort told fox<u+2019>s jon scott that the campaign is <u+201c>in good shape.<u+201d> asked about reports that outside allies were plotting an <u+201c>intervention<u+201d> with the candidate, manafort said: "this is the first i'm hearing about it," adding that some in the media are <u+201c>saying untrue things. much of this grows out the khan debacle, which the media seized upon after his democratic convention speech about his son<u+2019>s death in iraq but which trump then fueled by criticizing a gold star family. that, in turn, revived fears among republicans that trump is too busy picking fights with everyone who insults him to run a disciplined campaign. i<u+2019>m told there is frustration within his campaign that he keeps diverting to side issues, often in response to cable news chatter, rather than staying focused on attacking hillary clinton. even gingrich, a close adviser and vp finalist, is criticizing his friend (while also lambasting media bias). <u+201c>he has not made the transition to being the potential president of the united states, which is a much tougher league,<u+201d> gingrich told maria bartiromo. he added that <u+201c>some of what trump has done is just very self-destructive.<u+201d> along comes abc<u+2019>s jonathan karl, reporting that <u+201c>senior party officials are so frustrated <u+2014> and confused <u+2014> by donald trump<u+2019>s erratic behavior that they are exploring how to replace him on the ballot if he drops out.<u+201d> msnbc ran headlines all day about the trump "intervention," but there were no signs it would materialize. all of this has mushroomed into a tsunami of negative media coverage, with very little scrutiny of clinton, at least right now. trump has been at war with the press from the day he got in the race, even as he drew enormous amounts of ink and airtime. but he can't expand his base simply by bashing the media, as satisfying as that may be. the pundits, especially the ones on the left and right who detest him, are enjoying this latest chance to write him off. but that has proven dangerous in the past. and campaign narratives, even the most relentlessly negative, have a way of changing at a moment's notice. howard kurtz is a fox news analyst and the host of "mediabuzz" (sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. et). he is the author of five books and is based in washington. follow him at @howardkurtz. click here for more information on howard kurtz.

media trumpeting trump implosion, but is it real?

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

5 things to watch in tonight<u+2019>s gop debate

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recall those heady days seven years ago when president-elect obama<u+2019>s promise to unite the two parties to work for the common good was still an article of faith among the true believers. the fact that he had managed to transcend america<u+2019>s great original sin to become the first african american president was an amazing political feat but too many people, including some in the administration and at times the president himself, understood that to mean that he had pacified the republicans. during the transition, the assumption was that there was a unique opportunity to solve all the big problems at once due to this unique historical moment. on january 15, 2009, ej dionne of the washington post wrote a column called<u+00a0><u+201c>audacity without ideology<u+201d><u+00a0>that laid out the administration<u+2019>s thinking: there are at least three keys to understanding obama<u+2019>s approach to (and avoidance of) ideology. there is, first, his simple joy in testing himself against those who disagree with him. someone who knows the president-elect well says that he likes talking with philosophical adversaries more than with allies. but obama<u+2019>s anti-ideological turn is also a functional one for a progressive, at least for now. since ronald reagan, ideology has been the terrain of the right. many of the programs that conservatives have pushed have been based more on faith in their worldview than on empirical tests. how else could conservatives claim that cutting taxes would actually increase government revenue, or that trickle-down economic approaches were working when the evidence of middle-class incomes said otherwise? the second key was the quite obvious fact that the economy would require liberal solutions with which nobody on the right could possibly disagree so there was no need to even talk about ideology. obama could just subsume all objections under <u+201c>mountain of data<u+201d> and that would be that. the third key was the <u+201c>telltale notions<u+201d> that would define his presidency: <u+201c>sacrifice,<u+201d> <u+201c>grand bargain<u+201d> and <u+201c>sustainability.<u+201d> sacrifice was the benefits people would have to give up in order that the president could reform the government from top to bottom. this would entail figuring out a way to control health care costs, cut the <u+201c>entitlements<u+201d> and get limits on carbon emissions. and because this was all just simple common sense and so very pragmatic, the political system could have no objections.<u+00a0> dionne described it his way: the economy was in freefall, the election had been decisive and the new president came in with a congressional majority so it was reasonable for the democrats to believe they had a mandate. but despite the fact that there had been a bogus impeachment, a stolen election and a war based upon lies, the president didn<u+2019>t seem to have truly recognized what the republican party had become. they were not on board with his plan to <u+201c>pragmatically solve problems<u+201d> and everyone should have been crystal clear on that when the senate could only get three republicans (collins, snow and specter) to vote for a stimulus package to deal with the worst economic crisis since the great depression. by the time the democrats started putting together a health care plan, the tea party had been formed and a plan was in place. senator<u+00a0>jim demint<u+00a0>was declaring, <u+201c>if we<u+2019>re able to stop obama on this it will be his waterloo.<u+201d> they did everything they could but they couldn<u+2019>t stop it. obamacare passed on a party line vote and a year later,<u+00a0>senator mitch mcconnell said,<u+00a0><u+201c>the single most important thing we want to achieve is for president obama to be a one-term president.<u+201d> republicans didn<u+2019>t even pretend to be dealing in good faith and decided that their midterm victory meant they had a mandate to control the government from one house of congress. the result was the debt ceiling crisis, a government shutdown and sequestration. the president proposed his grand bargain idea of cutting social security but the tea party would have none of it as long as the white house insisted on getting some revenue from the wealthy.<u+00a0> it was hopeless. as former obama administration staff member dan pfeiffer<u+00a0>said,<u+00a0><u+201c>he had hopes of being able to change the polarization, not just in the country, but in washington.<u+201d> but they learned it was a lot harder than they thought. pfeiffer said it was president obama<u+2019>s biggest regret that he had not been able to deliver on that promise. but nobody could have delivered on that promise. the polarization that exists today has always been with us. what<u+2019>s new is that the two parties are now divided ideologically when in the past the ideological divide existed within both of them. our system, with all of its checks and balances, doesn<u+2019>t work very efficiently under such conditions. thinking about this recent history inevitably makes you wonder what will happen with the next president. it<u+2019>s logical to assume that if one of the republicans wins next november this dynamic would change. one of the most frightening political scenarios imaginable is one in which a president trump or cruz wins the presidency and has a congressional majority to help them enact their agenda. but it pays to keep in mind that president obama had that (for an admittedly short period) along with a major crisis which demanded government action. we know how that turned out. there<u+2019>s no guarantee that this would happen under a trump administration, of course. but he is so<u+00a0>eccentric<u+00a0>(to put it politely) that he would likely find himself at odds with his own party on much of his agenda. it<u+2019>s very hard to see how such a person could even function. a president cruz is a much clearer proposition. his party establishment has no love for him but he is smart and resourceful and would likely hit the ground running with a plan to enact his agenda. but like president obama, he would likely have a very short window in which to do it. it<u+2019>s fair to assume he<u+2019>s aware of that. whether any of the so-called establishment candidates get that is an unknown but both bush and kasich have been out of washington for a long time and rubio seems to be oblivious to its current dynamics.<u+00a0> but regardless of which one might win, the first two years of a gop administration with a gop majority would be a very dangerous time. one assumes the democrats are all fully aware of what they are dealing with at this point. with the republicans still in full extremist mode, unless the democrats win an unprecedented landslide (very unlikely in this polarized political environment) a progressive agenda will probably only be fulfilled around the edges. there are no more illusions of grand bargains and changing the polarized political system through pragmatic policies designed to give everyone a little of what they want. until these republicans sober up, the best we can hope for is that democrats can keep the gop from dismantling every bit of progress that<u+2019>s been made<u+00a0>over the past half century and stop them from starting world war iii. there<u+2019>s nothing more important than that.

the dark age of congressional warfare: inside obama<u+2019>s last state of the union & the fight for the future of government

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shortly after barack obama<u+2019>s victory in the 2008 presidential election, the former chair of the north carolina republican party wrote an anxious postmortem saying something had to be done about the students and black voters whose unprecedented turnout had turned the state blue for the first time in 32 years. the alternative, the former state chair jack hawke wrote, was that the country would <u+201c>continue to slide toward socialism<u+201d>. that <u+201c>something<u+201d> turned out to be a notorious omnibus law <u+2013> better known to its detractors as the <u+201c>monster law<u+201d> <u+2013> passed by a republican-majority state legislature in 2013. the legislation gutted many of the progressive voting rules that had contributed to obama<u+2019>s razor-thin margin in the state: same-day registration, a lengthy early voting period and out-of-precinct voting by provisional ballot <u+2013> all favored disproportionately by african american voters and students. the law also introduced a strict voter id requirement, with the anticipated effect of suppressing democratic votes even further. had the law stood, it could have been the biggest setback for voting rights in north carolina since the jim crow era, a brazen attempt by conservatives to upend the rules of democratic engagement and block access to groups most likely to oppose them. the republicans have sought to couch their maneuvering in more benign terms, as a form of justifiable partisan warfare. hawke noted in his postmortem that the democrats had been motivated, united and well-financed in 2008, and said it was up to the republicans to respond in kind. that argument has come crashing down, following a flurry of remarkable court rulings over the past two weeks accusing north carolina and three other republican-run states <u+2013> wisconsin, kansas and texas <u+2013> of violating the 1965 voting rights act and intentionally discriminating against african americans and other classes of voters. state and federal judges have struck down laws that could have given the republicans a significant edge in close races this november, lifting the spirits of voting rights activists who have been campaigning against such laws for more than a decade. <u+201c>winning an election does not empower anyone in any party to engage in purposeful racial discrimination,<u+201d> the fourth circuit court of appeals ruled in the north carolina case on friday. <u+201c>when a legislature dominated by one party has dismantled barriers to african american access to the franchise, even if done to gain votes, <u+2018>politics as usual<u+2019> does not allow a legislature dominated by the other party to re-erect those barriers.<u+201d> the omnibus law has been almost entirely swept away and is now unlikely to be resurrected in any form before november, when hillary clinton and donald trump will be fighting over every vote in north carolina, where recent polls show them less than two points apart. in kansas, which is not a swing state, a state court pushed back against an attempt by the state<u+2019>s top republican elections official, kris kobach, to prevent an estimated 17,500 kansans from voting in state and local races even though they have been recognized as eligible by federal courts. they will now be allowed to participate fully in primary elections this tuesday. in texas, also not a swing state, a federal appeals court has ordered the state government to find a remedy for eligible voters unable to comply with the country<u+2019>s single most restrictive and blatantly partisan voter id law <u+2013> a law recognizing concealed-carry weapons permits as valid id but not student cards from state universities. and in wisconsin, which is a swing state, the federal courts have delivered a double rebuke to governor scott walker and his contention that one of the country<u+2019>s most efficiently run election systems was in need of a major overhaul. one federal judge ruled last week that eligible voters unable to meet the requirements of the state<u+2019>s voter id law could instead produce an affidavit attesting to their identity. on friday, a different federal judge struck down much of wisconsin<u+2019>s version of the north carolina omnibus law <u+2013> a 2013 act that restricted early voting, extended the residency requirement for new voters and denied provisional voters the chance to vote out of precinct. <u+201c>the legislature<u+2019>s immediate goal was to achieve a partisan objective,<u+201d> judge james peterson charged in a blistering ruling, <u+201c>but the means of achieving that objective was to suppress the reliably democratic vote of milwaukee<u+2019>s african americans.<u+201d> taken together, these rulings represent a stunning rejection of more than a decade of republican strategy in states where the party has taken control of the legislature, the governor<u+2019>s mansion or both. <u+201c>the tide is turning against the proponents of voter suppression across our country,<u+201d> longtime voting rights activist kirsten clarke, of the lawyers<u+2019> committee for civil rights under law, said in a statement. <u+201c>it is time for elected officials to see the writing on the wall and abandon efforts to lock americans out of the ballot box.<u+201d> bob phillips of common cause north carolina was similarly jubilant. <u+201c>this is a big win,<u+201d> he said after the fourth circuit ruling. <u+201c>it affirms that democracy is for everyone.<u+201d> republican leaders were either too stunned to offer an immediate response, or else accused <u+201c>activist<u+201d> judges of making an incorrect interpretation of the law. despite the gop<u+2019>s protestations that it is championing <u+201c>commonsense<u+201d> safeguards against fraud, most political analysts agree that turnout has been a preoccupation. as demographic trends move away from the gop<u+2019>s overwhelmingly white base, it has become obvious over several election cycles that the fewer voters come to the polls, the better the party tends to do. numerous studies, including one by the government accountability office, have shown that voter id laws can shave two to three percentage points off democratic turnout <u+2013> a margin that can easily swing a race for the house, the senate or the presidency. peterson was unable to throw out wisconsin<u+2019>s voter id provision entirely because it was upheld by the higher federal courts in 2014, just as indiana<u+2019>s was a few years earlier. plenty of other obstacles to voter registration and participation remain, for example in florida where third-party registration drives have all but ceased because of a republican-backed law passed in 2011. in other words, not every obstacle to voting will be removed across the country before november, but the latest rulings nevertheless make life more difficult for the trump campaign, especially if the race remains close and states like wisconsin and north carolina prove crucial to his chances. the judicial decisions are also likely to affect down-ticket races <u+2013> for example, in the west texas congressional district where the former democratic representative pete gallego lost his seat by about 2,000 votes in 2014 and now stands a much better chance of winning it back. one academic study suggested he lost 10,000-15,000 votes because of the impact of the voter id law. bound up in the battle for voting rights is a bigger ideological fight, over the legacy of racism in america and the continuing need for legislation to protect certain minorities. before 2013, when the supreme court gutted a key provision of the voting rights act, north carolina and texas would not have been able to pass their repressive voting laws because they would have been blocked by the justice department<u+2019>s civil rights division. at the time, the supreme court<u+2019>s chief justice, john roberts, argued that policing of racism in elections should be determined by <u+201c>current conditions<u+201d> and that, in his view, discrimination did meet the <u+201c>pervasive, flagrant, widespread and rampant<u+201d> level that had justified the voting rights act in the 1960s. that view was sharply contested by ruth bader ginsburg, among others, and by the rank and file of the north carolina naacp, which reacted to the omnibus law by staging weekly protests in the streets known as <u+201c>moral mondays<u+201d>. the rev william barber, the head of the north carolina naacp, who had a prominent speaking slot at last week<u+2019>s democratic national convention, has described the battle against the new voting laws as <u+201c>our selma<u+201d>. now it seems likely that both the voter id question and the related question of voter discrimination will come back to the supreme court, at which point roberts will have to decide whether <u+201c>current conditions<u+201d> are as upbeat as he assumed in 2013. in the meantime, voting rights activists in north carolina and other states will be keeping a hawk eye out for further attempts to restrict voting through disinformation or other time-honored means. <u+201c>folks are not going to put their guard down,<u+201d> said phillips, of common cause. <u+201c>we and others will continue to double down on education to make sure there<u+2019>s no confusion. whatever the folks pushed these laws through try to say from here on to election day, we will make sure it<u+2019>s accurate, not misleading.<u+201d>

voting rights rulings could deal blow to republicans in 2016 elections

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real <u+201c>patriots,<u+201d> the bundys claim, stand against a behemoth government that has grasped their lands and their rights. america, after all, is made by ambitious individuals working their way up. a government that promotes social welfare or regulates business destroys the american system because it both limits a man<u+2019>s ability to make money and requires tax revenue. those taxes strike at the very heart of individualism because they redistribute money from hard workers to lazy people. ammon and ryan bundy and their compatriots are quite clear about exactly who those lazy people are. the younger bundys<u+2019> father, cliven, the nevada rancher who started an armed standoff with government officials in 2014 over grazing rights, had plenty to say about the <u+201c>negro<u+201d> who lived in government housing and <u+201c>didn<u+2019>t have nothing to do.<u+201d> african-americans<u+2019> laziness led them to abort their children and send their young men to jail. bundy wondered: <u+201c>are they better off as slaves, picking cotton and having a family life<u+2026> or are they better off under government subsidy? they didn<u+2019>t get no more freedom. they got less freedom.<u+201d> and yet, the bundys are perfectly comfortably taking money from government programs themselves. aside from animal kill programs that protect herds, drought relief payments,<u+00a0>and the 93<u+00a0>percent<u+00a0>discount at which the government assesses grazing fees,<u+00a0>ammon bundy borrowed more than $500,000 from the federal government through a loan guarantee program for small businesses.<u+00a0>ammon bundy<u+2019>s father, cliven, owes the government more than $1 million in grazing fees for running his cattle on public land. no matter how you slice it, taxpayers have subsidized the bundys. observers have made much of this obvious contradiction. but it is not a sign only of the bundys<u+2019> lack of self-awareness, or even simply of white supremacy. it is the intellectual formula that has driven american politics since 1980. that formula was laid down immediately after the civil war. in 1865, the south was so devastated by the war that southerners, white and black, were starving. to provide rations and medical care, and to place homeless southerners on farming land, congress created the bureau of refugees, freedmen, and abandoned lands. to emphasize that government aid would be temporary, they placed what became known as the freedmen<u+2019>s bureau within the war department. in summer 1865, military officers distributed 150,000 rations, a third of them to white people. but the agents also took on an unexpected role. southern states refused to let ex-slaves testify in court, leaving them to the tender mercies of angry white southerners, who cheated, beat, raped and murdered them. so freedmen<u+2019>s bureau officers began to hear the cases that pitted black and white southerners against each other. while agents often forced black people back to work for abusive employers or demanded subservient behavior, they decided cases in favor of ex-slaves about 68<u+00a0>percent<u+00a0>of the time. so southern democrats rewrote history. they had not fought the civil war over slavery after all, they insisted. they had fought it to stop a huge government bureaucracy from forcing its way into their homes and regulating the way they treated <u+201c>their people.<u+201d> they had fought, they now claimed, not for slavery, but for states<u+2019> rights. when congress tried to expand the freedmen<u+2019>s bureau the following year to enable it to provide education for poor americans of all races, president andrew johnson added the final ideological piece to the democrats<u+2019> attack on an activist government. that piece was taxation. during the war, the republican congress had created the nation<u+2019>s first national taxes, including the income tax. johnson vetoed the bill expanding the freedmen<u+2019>s bureau on two grounds. first, although the schools in the bill would have disproportionately helped whites in the border states, johnson claimed that it provided benefits for african-americans that had never been accorded to white people. second, he explained that the bill would create an army of officials that would harass southern whites, while the taxes necessary to support them would impoverish hardworking white people. this formula<u+2014>that an activist government sucks white tax dollars to provide for lazy minorities<u+2014>has been sold to<u+00a0>voters ever since. it caught on largely because of the odd happenstance that it coincided with the rise of the american cowboy. during this very moment, the cattle industry was taking off on the western plains. cowboys tended to be former confederates who were dirt poor and good with a horse and a gun. their dirty, hard, ill-paid and dangerous lives mirrored those of eastern industrial workers, but southern democratic newspaper editors grabbed hold of the idea of the free and independent cowboy as the embodiment of american individualism. cowboys, they said, were the very opposite of the ex-slaves the government was coddling. cowboys were hardworking young men who asked nothing of the government. the reality, of course, was that the cattle industry depended almost entirely on the american government. the army protected herds and cattlemen against indians, congress funded the railroads that moved cattle to eastern markets, and indian agents bought cattle to fulfill the ration provisions of treaties. cattlemen, in short, received massive government subsidies. but the image of the western cowboy as a hardworking man who asked only to be left alone got traction among southerners and northern democrats who hated the idea of black rights, and who loathed the republicans<u+2019> activist government that was trying to enforce those rights. by the 1870s, ex-confederates had taken their support for western individualism a step further. they insisted the federal government was actively persecuting western individuals. their hero was jesse james, the former confederate guerilla-turned-criminal. when a republican state government in missouri refused to let ex-confederates sit on juries or practice law, democrats used the fugitive james to bludgeon their political opponents. james was <u+201c>an angel of light,<u+201d> as one said, who wanted to turn himself in to authorities, but could not because he would not get a fair trial in a courtroom full of his political opponents. he was a good man, the story went, but the government was forcing him into criminality. and then, the governor of missouri cut a deal with robert ford to kill james. that a government official had colluded to murder a citizen added fuel to the idea that westerners were in danger from an overweening government. the political construct that lionized western individuals and demonized an activist government, a government that apparently helped minorities, was a product of a peculiar moment in american history. neither the moment nor the ideology lasted. the political construct that idealized cowboys fell into disrepute during and immediately after the new deal. in those years, americans turned away from western individualism and toward the idea of an activist government. westerners and southerners both, after all, were suffering from the dust bowl and the boll weevil. they wanted government programs even more than easterners did. but in the 1950s, the movement conservative war on the new deal resurrected the post-civil war political clich<u+00e9>. since the brown v. board of education decision of 1954, movement conservatives have tapped into the idea that an activist government redistributed wealth to lazy minorities. but they have also pushed hard on the idea that true americans are western individualists. arizona sen. barry goldwater launched this association in 1964 by dismissing brown v. board as governmental overreach and fictionalizing his wealthy upbringing as a hardscrabble western frontier story; ronald reagan made it even more explicit by contrasting his image of the welfare queen with his own cowboy hat and western ranch. and yet, the goldwater and the reagan stories mirrored those of the historical western individual: their regions, and their own families, prospered only when government contracts poured money into their communities. to them, there was no contradiction between their championing of individualism and benefiting from government largess. according to movement conservatives, americans who believe in individualism want nothing from the government, and thus, unlike grasping minorities, they are the nation<u+2019>s true patriots. the government should do nothing for <u+201c>lazy black americans,<u+201d> who only want an un-american redistribution of wealth through taxes. but, paradoxically, the government can<u+2014>and should<u+2014>use tax money to help america<u+2019>s individualists. this is the peculiar contradiction that defines today<u+2019>s politics. confederates, cowboys, anti-government diatribes from people who are prime beneficiaries of government programs <u+2026> thanks to the bundys we are celebrating the 150th<u+00a0>anniversary of reconstruction by reliving it.

ronald reagan made it all worse: how republicans <u+2014> the real party with their hands out <u+2014> convinced white america that government was out to get them

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the state-owned oil company of azerbaijan secretly funded an all-expenses-paid trip to a conference in baku, on the caspian sea, in 2013 for 10 members of congress and 32 staff members, according to a confidential ethics report obtained by the washington post. three former top aides to president obama appeared as speakers at the event. lawmakers and their staff members received hundreds of thousands of dollars<u+2019> worth of travel expenses, silk scarves, crystal tea sets and azerbaijani rugs valued at $2,500 to $10,000, according to the ethics report. airfare for the lawmakers and some of their spouses cost $112,899, travel invoices show. the state oil company of the azerbaijan republic, known as socar, allegedly funneled $750,000 through nonprofit corporations based in the united states to conceal the source of the funding for the conference in the former soviet republic, according to the 70-page report by the office of congressional ethics, an independent investigative arm of the house. the report reflects the most extensive investigation undertaken by the ethics office, which was created seven years ago in response to a number of scandals on capitol hill, including lobbyist jack abramoff<u+2019>s illegal funding of lawmakers<u+2019> trips. the nonprofit corporations allegedly filed false statements with congress swearing that they were sponsoring the conference. the findings have been referred to the house ethics committee for investigation of possible violations of congressional rules and federal laws that bar foreign governments from trying to influence u.s. policy. socar released a statement saying that its support of the conference was no secret and blaming the nonprofits for not filing the proper disclosures. <u+201c>at no time did socar hide from the attendees of the conference our involvement,<u+201d> the statement said. <u+201c>socar has never been under investigation in this matter because the responsibility for disclosing socar<u+2019>s financial support for the conference fell to those who were the trip<u+2019>s sponsors. <u+201c>we have cooperated fully. we are therefore disappointed that the compliance procedures may not have been followed correctly by the trip<u+2019>s sponsors and we are unclear why these disclosures were omitted.<u+201d> tom rust, chief counsel and staff director for the ethics committee, and kelly brewington, a spokeswoman for the office of congressional ethics, declined to comment. the conference, titled <u+201c>u.s.- azerbaijan convention: vision for the future,<u+201d> took place on may 28 and 29, 2013. during the previous year, socar and several large energy companies sought exemptions for a $28<u+00a0>billion natural gas pipeline project in the caspian sea from u.s. economic sanctions being imposed on iran. the congressional investigators could not determine whether lawmakers used their official positions to benefit socar or the pipeline project. they also found no evidence that the lawmakers or their staff members knew that the conference was being funded by a foreign government. the investigators noted that the lawmakers relied on representations made to them by two houston-based nonprofit corporations, the turquoise council of americans and eurasians (tcae) and the assembly of the friends of azerbaijan (afaz). the lawmakers told investigators that they had obtained approval for the trip from the ethics committee. the report said members of the ethics panel wrote to the office of congressional ethics requesting a halt to the investigation so that the matter could be taken up by their own committee. oce officials declined the request. a government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter said oce feared that the ethics panel, which has a<u+00a0>reputation among watchdog groups for shielding lawmakers from embarrassing disclosures, would not take any meaningful action. the pipeline has long been an important u.s. policy objective because it would bolster european security by offering an alternative to russian gas. one of socar<u+2019>s partners was the national iranian oil company (nioc), a relationship that had threatened to scuttle the deal if sanctions were approved without an exemption for the shah deniz natural gas project. <u+00ad>socar and nioc were partners with 10<u+00a0>percent of the project each, while bp and norwegian-based statoil each held 25.5<u+00a0>percent. russian-based lukoil also had a 10<u+00a0>percent share, and turkish petroleum corp. had 9<u+00a0>percent. congress had approved two sanctions bills containing passages that exempted the project, which obama signed into law in august 2012 and january 2013. on june 3, 2013, five days after the baku conference, obama signed an executive order assessing economic sanctions against iran that also exempted the project. the post reported about the trip at the time, in an article noting that three former obama political advisers <u+2014> robert gibbs, jim messina and david plouffe <u+2014> spoke at the conference, which was attended by current and former members of congress. politico also wrote about the trip, and the houston chronicle reported that socar had been a sponsor of the conference and raised questions about the nonprofits involved. only one western news organization covered the event, the washington diplomat, a monthly that writes about the diplomatic community in the nation<u+2019>s capital. but no information surfaced at the time about the alleged $750,000 payment from socar to the nonprofits. ethics investigators obtained a wire transfer showing that socar sent the $750,000 to afaz. socar<u+2019>s legal counsel told the investigators that the money was <u+201c>dues<u+201d> that were <u+201c>intended to be used as funding for the convention.<u+201d> the lawmakers who took the trip were reps. jim bridenstine (r-okla.), yvette d. clarke (d-n.y.), danny k. davis (d-ill.), rub<u+00e9>n hinojosa (d-tex.), sheila jackson lee (d-tex.), leonard lance (r-n.j.), michelle lujan grisham (d-n.m.), gregory w. meeks (d-n.y.) and ted poe (r-tex.) and then-rep. steve stockman (r-tex.). clarke is a member of the ethics committee. another lawmaker, rep. michael r. turner (r-ohio), attended as part of a separate congressional delegation and his expenses were not paid by the conference, according to the report. <u+201c>my official visit was part of my house armed services and nato responsibilities,<u+201d> turner told the post in a statement. <u+201c>the conference did not pay my expenses and i did not receive any gifts.<u+201d> davis told the post that the ethics committee approved the trip, which he took with his wife, and that he didn<u+2019>t realize it had been funded by socar. he said he saw the oil company<u+2019>s logos in baku, but <u+201c>to be very honest about it, i didn<u+2019>t pay them much attention, honestly.<u+201d> he also said that during the conference he received one rug, which was delivered to his hotel room and is in storage in his basement in chicago. he said he is considering donating the rug to a museum or a charity. davis also said lawmakers should ask more questions about the source of funding for travel. <u+201c>some of these things that we take sometimes for granted probably require a bit more investigation or more prudence,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>so maybe we<u+2019>ll exercise a bit more scrutiny. i will.<u+201d> hinojosa, who attended the conference with his wife, said he was also unaware of socar<u+2019>s involvement. <u+201c>prior to the trip to azerbaijan and turkey, i sought approval from the u.s. house committee on ethics to travel,<u+201d> he said in a statement. <u+201c>i believed the purpose of the trip was to strengthen u.s.-turkey and u.s.-azerbaijani relations. i received souvenirs of what i believed to be of minimal value and in compliance with the house gift rule.<u+201d> the statement added: <u+201c>importantly, the report notes that there is no evidence to suggest that members of congress who went on the trip knew that impermissible sponsors and organizers may have been involved and that members relied on the sponsors<u+2019> representations in good faith.<u+201d> ladan ahmadi, a spokeswoman for meeks, said in a statement that the congressman <u+201c>had no reason to believe that the trip was in any way inappropriate. he understood the rug to be a permissible courtesy gift.<u+201d> glenn rushing, the chief of staff for jackson lee, said in a<u+00a0>statement: <u+201c>congresswoman jackson lee submitted to the house ethics committee all of the information available to her regarding sponsorship of this travel and received advance approval for this trip, in writing, from the house ethics committee, fully in accordance with house ethics rules. the congresswoman made this trip only because of the approval by the house ethics committee.<u+201d> lance declined to comment, citing the ongoing ethics investigation. a senior staff member who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that the congressman was unaware socar had sponsored the event and that he had returned the one rug he received after he got back to washington. the staff member also said lance received a pair of earrings and reimbursed the nonprofit group that helped organize the conference $100 immediately upon returning to new jersey. clarke and stockman did not respond to requests for comment. although lawmakers told investigators that they were unaware that the azerbaijani government had underwritten the trip through its oil company, investigators noted that socar organized much of the conference in plain sight. the oil company issued invitations, sponsored visa entries for the lawmakers and staff members, and hung banners and placards emblazoned with socar<u+2019>s logo throughout the conference halls in baku. the investigators concluded in their report that <u+201c>a person<u+2019>s ignorance of the true source of travel expenses is not an absolute shield from liability for receipt of travel expenses from an improper source.<u+201d> several members of the house foreign affairs committee, which has oversight of u.s. relations with iran and the economic sanctions, attended the conference. they included one of the panel<u+2019>s most influential members, poe, who chairs its subcommittee on terrorism, nonproliferation and trade. the report said poe was among those who did not fully cooperate with the office of congressional ethics or did not acknowledge receipt of their request for information. in a statement to the post, shaylyn hynes, poe<u+2019>s spokeswoman said, <u+201c>congressman poe did cooperate,<u+201d> providing investigators with documents and answers to their questions. <u+201c>the house committee on ethics then requested that the oce cease its review because it was conducting its own investigation,<u+201d> hynes<u+2019>s statement said. <u+201c>as a result, we alerted oce that we were communicating and cooperating directly with the house committee on ethics, the official arbiter of house ethics matters.<u+201d> hynes<u+2019>s statement added that the congressman thought the conference was being sponsored by the nonprofits. <u+201c>in its report, the oce clearly states it did not receive any evidence that the congressman knew that tcae was not the sole organizer or sponsor of the travel,<u+201d> hynes<u+2019>s statement said. <u+201c>the oce further correctly found that <u+2018>representative poe acted in good faith reliance on information received from the purported trip sponsor and approval from the committee on ethics.<u+2019> <u+201d> according to the report, three other lawmakers who took the trip also declined to cooperate with the ethics office or did not respond: jackson lee, a member of the homeland security committee; lance, a member of the energy and commerce committee; and meeks, a member of the foreign affairs committee. lance<u+2019>s staff member said the lawmaker had been ready to cooperate with the office of congressional ethics when he was told by the house ethics committee that it would examine the case. lance is now cooperating with that panel. meeks also provided documents to the oce but did not give an interview to investigators after learning that the ethics panel was conducting its own investigation, his spokeswoman, ahmadi, said in a statement. <u+201c>congressman meeks is committed to cooperate with the ethics committee in its review of this matter,<u+201d> she said. several lawmakers said they thought they had properly reported their travel expenses on their disclosure forms. several said they believed they did not need to disclose the gifts because their value did not exceed the $350 reporting threshold. lujan grisham told ethics investigators that she did not disclose the rugs because she did not think they were particularly valuable. she also thought that they were unattractive. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s not a carpet i would have purchased,<u+201d> the congresswoman said. a spokesman for lujan grish<u+00ad>am told the post that the congresswoman <u+201c>takes house ethics rules seriously<u+201d> and sought approval for the trip by the house ethics committee. <u+201c>the office of congressional ethics concluded, as reported by the news media, that rep. lujan grisham was led to believe the travel was sponsored by a nonprofit organization, and not any other source,<u+201d> gilbert gallegos, the spokesman, said in a statement. <u+201c>rep. lujan grisham acted in good faith as she relied on the approval by house ethics committee.<u+201d> in recent years, as relations between the united states and iran have deteriorated over iran<u+2019>s nuclear ambitions, congress and the obama administration have stepped up economic sanctions. the government of azerbaijan, which shares a border with iran, hired several lobbying firms to build a better relationship with policymakers in washington. as congress weighed a new round of sanctions against iran in 2012, socar opened an office in washington, buying a building in dupont circle for $12<u+00a0>million. on april 25 and 26, 2012, a conference called <u+201c>u.s.-azerbaijan relations: vision for future<u+201d> was held at the willard intercontinental hotel in downtown washington. among the attendees were poe, meeks and jackson lee. ethics investigators said it appeared that socar was a <u+201c>major funder<u+201d> of the conference, citing interviews and photographs published on a web site for the event that showed banners with <u+00ad>socar<u+2019>s logos inside the hotel. at the time, congress was considering the iran threat reduction and syria human rights act. the bill contained a provision that would exempt the gas pipeline project from iranian sanctions. the provision said that <u+201c>nothing<u+201d> in the measure would apply to <u+201c>the development of natural gas and the construction and operation of a pipeline to transport natural gas from azerbaijan to turkey and europe.<u+201d> three months later, on july 30, 2012, obama signed an executive order authorizing additional sanctions against iran and exempting the pipeline. on aug. 1, congress approved the sanctions legislation and the exemption. obama signed it into law nine days later. before adjourning for christmas, congress approved another sanctions bill called the iran freedom and counter-proliferation act, which was part of the national defense authorization act of 2013. that bill also contained an exemption for the gas pipeline. on jan. 2, 2013, obama signed the legislation into law. soon, members of congress began receiving invitations to attend a springtime conference in baku, the azerbaijani capital, known for its mix of medieval architecture and gleaming modern buildings along the shores of the caspian sea. a month before the conference, the nonprofit afaz was set up in houston, home to some of the world<u+2019>s largest energy companies. <u+201c>evidence revealed that <u+00ad>socar founded afaz in the month prior to the convention and transferred $750,000 to an afaz bank account prior to the convention,<u+201d> the oce report said. afaz was created as an <u+201c>educational, cultural, business, congressional advocacy and charitable organization<u+201d> with the mission of building <u+201c>bridges between the united states and azerbaijan,<u+201d> according to the nonprofit<u+2019>s web site. the investigators for the office of congressional ethics found that afaz and the other houston-based nonprofit, tcae, concealed the true source of the funding for travel and other expenses for the u.s. officials. <u+201c>the oce found that the disclosed nonprofit sponsors contributed virtually no money towards congressional travel to azerbaijan and played a very limited role in organizing the convention,<u+201d> the report said. on april 16, 2013, kemal oksuz, an executive in charge of the nonprofits, wrote to the president of socar, requesting $750,000 to underwrite the conference, according to the report. in return, oksuz pledged that socar<u+2019>s <u+201c>logo will be used on all printed materials, banners and website, and that socar will be recognized as the main sponsor of the convention.<u+201d> on may 13, socar transferred $750,000 into the wells fargo account of afaz, according to the report. three days later, afaz made its first money transfer to pay for the plane tickets for the conference attendees. <u+201c>socar and afaz provided gifts in the form of impermissible travel expenses to congressional travelers in violation of house rules, regulations and federal law,<u+201d> the ethics investigators said. oksuz did not respond to requests for comment. last summer, the houston chronicle published an examination of the baku conference and interviewed oksuz. he told the newspaper that he was not required to disclose corporate sponsorships because <u+201c>those contributions always came after the conventions.<u+201d> the investigators said five nonprofits affiliated with the azerbaijani government said they sponsored the conference, filing sworn statements with the ethics committee in april and may 2013. <u+201c>the five sponsoring organizations contributed no funding for the congressional travel in spite of false affirmations on the forms they submitted to the committee on ethics,<u+201d> the investigators wrote in the report. socar assembled a list of lawmakers, other u.s. officials and private individuals it wanted to attend the three-day conference. the oil company invited more than 30 people to speak in baku, according to the report, including gibbs, messina and plouffe. socar also invited richard g. lugar (r-ind.), a former chairman of the senate foreign relations committee, who had lost his reelection campaign in 2012. in addition to socar, bp, conocophillips and kbr also helped to underwrite the costs of the conference, estimated at $1.5<u+00a0>million. those costs included $100,000 for hotel accommodations, $75,000 for food and entertainment, and $1.2<u+00a0>million for travel and other expenses. several members of congress and their staff members also took side trips to turkey, traveling to istanbul, ankara or both, the investigators found. they included clarke, hinojosa, lance and lujan grisham. the bosphorus atlantic cultural association of friendship and cooperation, a turkish nonprofit organization, covered the expenses, the report said. the lawmakers did not disclose the role of that nonprofit. <u+201c>members of congress who traveled to turkey accepted payment of travel expenses from impermissible sources, resulting in an impermissible gift, in violation of house rules and regulations,<u+201d> the report found. investigators also said lawmakers received a number of gifts, including crystal tea sets, briefcases, silk scarves, turquoise earrings, gold-painted plates and azerbaijani rugs. some congressional staff members told the investigators they thought that the rugs were worth about $300 <u+2014> $50 below the reporting threshold <u+2014> and that they didn<u+2019>t need to disclose them on their forms filed with the ethics committee. the report said <u+201c>evidence suggests<u+201d> that all lawmakers received at least one rug and some got two, one prayer-size and one area rug. many staff members also received rugs. only one lawmaker, bridenstine, disclosed the rugs on his financial forms. he had them appraised: the smaller rug at $2,500 and the larger at $3,500. in a july 2013 letter to the ethics committee, he said he wanted to donate the larger rug to the house clerk<u+2019>s office. bridenstine was the only lawmaker to offer to pay for the rugs out of his own pocket, telling the committee that he would like to purchase the smaller rug <u+201c>at fair market value.<u+201d> but, ultimately, he decided not to keep the rugs. <u+201c>having sought advice from the committee on ethics, i determined the best course of action was to return the rugs and i did so,<u+201d> he said in a statement to the post. <u+201c>i also received a porcelain tea set which was valued at $87, well under the foreign gifts disclosure act rules, and an educational book and four local traditional music cds.<u+201d> amy brittain, kimbriell kelly, robert o<u+2019>harrow jr. and steven mufson contributed to this report.

10 members of congress took trip secretly funded by foreign government

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some may have expected democratic front-runner hillary clinton to swing further left to woo supporters of her democratic rival bernie sanders ahead of the california primary on tuesday. instead she came out swinging against donald trump in a scathing speech that made clear she's looking to appeal to a broad centre in the general election. billed as a national security speech, her address lacked any new proposals. instead it was a forceful, often mocking, rebuke of the presumptive republican nominee, as she framed her pitch in patriotic terms that could also resonate with republicans. mrs. clinton presented herself as the real defender of american values and a commander-in-chief with a steady hand who believed in america as an exceptional country. mr trump on the other hand, "believes america is weak. an embarrassment. he called our military a disaster. he said we are, and i quote, a third-world country," said mrs clinton, speaking in san diego, a city with 95,000 military personnel. mrs clinton was introduced by the spouse of an active duty naval officer and spoke with 20 us flags prominently displayed behind her. although still fighting a primary, mrs. clinton is clearly making a play for independent and republican voters who are concerned about mr trump's erratic foreign policy pronouncements but also his statements on women, mexican immigrants and muslims. on thursday, the head of hispanic media relations for the republican national committee, ruth guerra, resigned. mrs clinton has always had the potential to appeal to moderate republicans turned off by their party's stance on social issues such as gay marriage, abortion and even guns, but who feel she is tough enough on foreign policy. in late april, during her speech after her victory in the pennsylvania primary, mrs clinton appealed to "thoughtful" republicans, independents and democrats to stand together against divisive candidates on the republican side. although house speaker paul ryan finally endorsed donald trump on thursday after weeks of hesitation, prominent republicans are not rushing actively to back the presumptive republican nominee just yet. at least nine republican governors, and a number of senators, are steering clear from their party convention in july. there has also been a trickle of lifelong, prominent republicans who openly say they will vote for a democrat for the first time in their life in november. mrs clinton's message on american global leadership may not resonate widely with the gop (grand old party; republican) base which is turning more isolationist - but it is finding an audience with many moderates and foreign policy thinkers. on twitter, the hashtag #republicansforhillary was trending for a day this week, after an interview on us cable tv with a former reagan administration official, doug elmets, who said that "four years of hillary clinton is better than one day with donald trump as president". widely quoted in the us media as well was retired army colonel peter mansoor, a former aide to general david petraeus during the iraq war. mr mansoor said he would be voting for mrs clinton not because he had converted to being a democrat, but because mr trump was dangerous. elections are not won on twitter and a handful of republicans won't tip the balance in november, but the chatter on social media is bringing out voices from the republican party silent during the raucous days of the republican primaries and raising questions about a ripple effect. mr trump has been criticised by leading names such as former secretary of defence robert gates, former cia director michael hayden, former bush administration spokesperson tony fratto, historian max boot and commentator david frum, a former speechwriter for george w bush. clinton campaign aides were not willing to discuss their strategy to appeal to moderate republicans, especially while the democratic primary is still under way. but they acknowledged there were republicans, particularly those concerned with foreign policy issues, who could support her. vin weber, a republican strategist and former congressman who supported jeb bush in the primaries, said mrs clinton should enlist republican advisors. "if she were campaigning like her husband, she would move to the centre, and try to get votes that are not locked up by the republican party," said mr weber, who said he was still doing some hard thinking about how to vote in november. democratic pollster stanley greenberg says a recent poll shows moderate republicans represent a "stunning 31% of the gop base", what he describes the alienated third of the party. "they are disproportionately college graduates in a white, working-class party, and they are socially liberal." on marriage equality, climate change or abortion rights, those gop moderates are more in sync with the democratic party. the poll, conducted in february when all the republican candidates were still in the race, showed that 10% of republican moderates would vote for clinton. kori schake, a fellow at the conservative hoover institution, said that clinton's challenge would be to convince anti-trump republicans they actually need to vote for her - not simply refrain from voting for mr trump. "republican refuseniks are not enough to make a difference," she said. ms schake said presenting mr trump as dangerous was an effective strategy, but it was also key for mrs clinton to frame her pitch in economic terms. she had to press home the damage she believed a trump presidency would cause to the economy - but to do so would require moving decisively to the right of mr sanders, and risk alienating many in her own party. "i've just come back from cuba, and i've seen what a sanders economy looks like," said ms schake. mrs clinton will seek to unify the democratic party ahead of the convention, she will not undo the positions she has taken during the drawn-out primaries to appeal to the democratic base. but to win those moderates republicans, she will now need to present herself not just as the candidate of her party's middle but of america's centre.

us election 2016: can clinton win over republican moderates?

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miami<u+00a0>-- fighting for florida and beyond, hillary clinton and bernie sanders tangled in an intense debate wednesday night over who's the true friend of american hispanics, trading accusations over guest worker programs "akin to slavery" and the embracing of "vigilantes" against immigrants. <u+00a0> they had even worse things to say about republican front-runner donald trump. <u+00a0> facing off just six days before florida gives its verdict on the presidential race, clinton faulted sanders for repeatedly voting against a 2007 comprehensive immigration reform bill; he faulted her for opposing a 2007 effort to let people who were in the country illegally obtain driver's licenses. <u+00a0> had the immigration package passed back then, clinton said, "a lot of the issues we are still discussing today would be in the rearview mirror." <u+00a0> sanders retorted that he opposed the legislation because it included a guest worker program "akin to slavery." <u+00a0> the debate opened with a question that appeared to startle clinton. <u+00a0> univision's jorge ramos asked her if she would drop out of the race if indicted over the handling of her email while secretary of state. <u+00a0> "oh for goodness, that is not going to happen," clinton declared. "i'm not even answering that question." <u+00a0> the fbi is investigation the possibility of mishandling of sensitive information that passed through clinton's private email server. <u+00a0> sanders, as he has in the past, declined to bite on the issue, saying, "the process will take its course." he said he'd rather talk about the issues of wealth and income inequality. <u+00a0> both candidates were bedding for momentum after sanders startled clinton with an upset victory in michigan on tuesday. <u+00a0> clinton stressed that she has a strong lead in the delegates, declaring, "this is a marathon, and it is a marathon that can only be carried by the kind of campaign i am running." <u+00a0> sanders said his michigan surprise was evidence that his message is resonating. <u+00a0> "we are going to continue to do extremely well," he said, adding that he expects to convince superdelegates who are backing clinton to switch to his column. <u+00a0> immigration commanded considerable attention for good reason: florida is home to nearly 1.8 million hispanics, including about 15 percent of the state's democrats. <u+00a0> hispanic voters have made up about 10 percent of voters in the democratic primaries so far this year, and clinton has been getting about two-thirds of their votes to about one-third for sanders. the vermont senator, for his part, stresses that he's making progress on winning over younger hispanics. <u+00a0> clinton at one point accused sanders of supporting legislation that would have led to indefinite detention of people facing deportation, and for standing with minutemen vigilantes. he called that notion "ridiculous" and "absurd," and accused clinton of picking small pieces out of big legislative packages to distort his voting record. <u+00a0> "no, i do not support vigilantes and that is a horrific statement and an unfair statement to make," he said, adding: "i will match my record against yours any day of the week." <u+00a0> for all the disagreements, the overall tone of the candidates was considerably less tense than their sunday faceoff. sanders even paused at one point to make fun of his own pronunciation of "huge" as "yuge." <u+00a0> both found agreement in pointing to gop front-runner trump as markedly worse on immigration than either of them. <u+00a0> clinton mocked the trump's plan for a wall on the mexican border, saying he'd build "the most beautiful tall wall, better than the great wall of china" to be "magically" paid for by mexico. that, she said, is a fantasy. <u+00a0> sanders largely agreed, adding his hope that in the immigration debate "we do not, as donald trump and others have done, resort to racism and xenophobia and bigotry." <u+00a0> the candidates squared off soon after a testy debate in michigan on sunday in which they argued about trade and economic issues of particular interest in the industrial midwest. <u+00a0> with missouri, illinois, ohio among the states that will be voting on tuesday, the candidates returned to a pointed matter they'd already argued about three days earlier, scuffling over sanders' vote against 2009 legislation that bailed out the auto industry, among others. sanders said he opposed the bill because it also bailed out big banks that had fueled the recession to begin with. clinton stressed she'd made a different judgment to side with the automakers. <u+00a0> overall, 691 delegates are at stake on tuesday, including 99 in florida, which awards all its delegates to the winner rather than dividing them up proportionately.. <u+00a0> clinton has won 762 pledged delegates compared to 549 for sanders, with 10 delegates from recent primaries still to be allocated. when superdelegates are included, clinton leads 1,223 to 574, more than halfway to the 2,383 needed to win the democratic nomination. <u+00a0> ___ <u+00a0> benac reported from washington. ap writers sergio bustos and ken thomas in miami, and hope yen in washington contributed to this report. (copyright 2016 the associated press. all rights reserved. this material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed).

who's best for hispanics? clinton, sanders debate

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on to indy: hoosier state could be stand for trump challengers, sanders everyone knew iowa would matter <u+2014> and new hampshire, too. the other february contests got a lot of attention, as did super tuesday and the mega-states like new york. and, yes, late in the season, you heard people saying, it might all come down to california. but when did anyone know to get excited about indiana? it comes late in the season, with the great majority of states voting sooner and allocating the great majority of delegates, so no one seemed to give a hoot about the hoosier state <u+2014> the one and only primary on may 3. but it has come down to this. the months of campaigning and the millions of dollars and tv hours have brought the contest to the doorstep of the midwest. with its mix of farmland and once-mighty industrial base, indiana looks like the last stand for die-hards in both the stop-trump forces of the republican party and the populist revolt on the left of the democratic party. that is because the last two weeks of events in april have combined to put front-runners donald trump and hillary clinton so far ahead in their respective parties that only the most extraordinary events could prevent their nominations. on tuesday night, five states voted in the east: pennsylvania, maryland, connecticut, rhode island and delaware. all five went big for trump. clinton won all but rhode island, several by big margins. trump now has about 75 percent of the delegates he needs for a first-ballot win. clinton has about 90 percent of her nominating number, including majorities of pledged delegates and superdelegates. both could lose all the voting events that remain through june and still reach the conventions with pluralities among the delegates. the associated press says trump now has 950 delegates to the 560 bound to his closest competitor, ted cruz. his lead is probably bigger than that because he is likely to claim most of the 54 delegates from pennsylvania who are currently unbound. trump picked up more than 100 delegates on tuesday; cruz got three. similarly, on the democratic side, the ap shows clinton with 1,618 pledged delegates to 1,267 for bernie sanders. in addition, she can fall back on her fantastic cushion of superdelegates, the elected and party officials who have given 519 commitments to clinton and just 39 to sanders, so far. it is likely the remaining superdelegates will be similarly disposed to clinton, and the campaign will unveil their commitments at an advantageous time. sanders pledged tuesday night to fight on "until the last vote is cast." that could mean the last vote in the primaries on june 7, or it could mean the last vote at the convention in philadelphia in late july. either way, sanders was no longer talking about "a path to victory," but rather a truly progressive platform for the party. in the meantime, he wants to keep his movement together and as robust as possible on the road to the convention. so he keeps running. to re-energize his drive for his remaining goals, sanders well might focus on indiana, where he has campaigned in recent days. distrust of washington and wall street is strong along the wabash, and distress over trade deals thrives on the shores of lake michigan to the north. recent polling in the state has shown sanders within striking distance of clinton in indiana, trailing by about the same margin as cruz trails trump. for her part, clinton in her victory remarks tuesday made clear her confidence in winning. but she was gracious to sanders and moved in his direction on several issues, including the role of money in politics, adding once again that "there is much more that unites us than divides us." on the republican side, though, the drive for unity has yet to begin. both cruz and kasich remain in the race. trump opponents from both the establishment and the "movement conservative" media continue to search for other options, including means to force the nomination process beyond a first ballot. with tuesday's results, however, cruz has no mathematical chance for a first-ballot victory, and kasich's was extinguished a month ago. to even keep his flame flickering, cruz must overtake trump in indiana next week and forge a miraculous late-inning comeback. indiana is key for cruz because it has many voters who identify as very conservative or evangelical, two groups with whom he has done well elsewhere. it is also the test of cruz's eleventh-hour alliance with rival kasich. cruz agreed not to campaign in late-voting oregon and new mexico if kasich would stay out of indiana. kasich acceded, although his description of the deal has cast doubt on its terms and effectiveness. at this moment, it is a popular idea among many campaign watchers that cruz struck the deal to get kasich out of the way in indiana and give himself the one-on-one showdown with trump he's been wanting all along. who knows? by the time oregon and new mexico roll around, kasich might not even be in the race. trump had belittled the cruz-kasich pact in recent days and dismissed both his rivals tuesday night. anointing himself the "presumptive nominee," he proceeded to turn his guns on clinton. "all she has is the woman card," he said. "and the thing is, women don't like her. ... if she were a man, i doubt she'd have more than 5 percent of the vote." clinton seemed to have anticipated that attack earlier in the evening, saying: "if fighting for paid family leave and equal pay is playing the woman card, then deal me in."

on to indy: hoosier state could be stand for trump challengers, sanders

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with donald trump closing in on the republican nomination in indiana today, there is a new wave of finger-pointing to assess blame for this allegedly horrible outcome. and those who fault the media are having one last hurrah. nowhere is this more evident than on the cover of politico magazine, which features trump facing a media mob with the headline: <u+201c>what have we done?<u+201d> it<u+2019>s a study in self-flagellation, this argument that trump would not be where he is today without being propped up by the press. many of his detractors refuse to acknowledge that a non-politician is winning this thing by getting a record number of gop primary votes, so the thing must be rigged by reporters. politico<u+2019>s special media issue is so packed with anti-trump essays that there is little attempt at balance. one exception is media writer jack shafter, who says the blame game <u+201c>gives too much credit to the media and too little credit to donald trump.<u+201d> but then there<u+2019>s reporter ben schreckinger, who became the fulltime trump correspondent despite the fact that working for politico is his first job out of college. perhaps that<u+2019>s why he is so angry at criticism from trump and his deputies and a lack of access, both of which are standard fare in the political big leagues. former new york post gossip writer susan mulcahy argues that trump used to lie to her and once gave a scoop to the new york times rather than confirm it to her. but the most important article is by campbell brown, the former cnn and nbc anchor, who i like and respect: <u+201c>why i blame tv for trump.<u+201d> now you have to factor in that brown cannot abide trump. she calls him a chronic liar, a misogynist, shockingly ignorant, and a man who condones violence. so this is the writing of an outspoken critic. brown says tv news is rolling over for the donald: <u+201c>trump doesn<u+2019>t force the networks to show his rallies live rather than do real reporting. nor does he force anyone to accept his phone calls rather than demand that he do a face-to-face interview that would be a greater risk for him. tv news has largely given trump editorial control. it is driven by a hunger for ratings<u+2014>and the people who run the networks and the news channels are only too happy to make that faustian bargain.<u+201d> this, aside from the business about <u+201c>real reporting,<u+201d> is a fair point. trump<u+2019>s rallies got so much more live coverage than any of his competitors that it gave him an unfair advantage. brown misses the old <u+201c>800-pound gorillas of tv news<u+201d> like tom brokaw, who could push back against commercial decisions. but of course, the broadcast networks don<u+2019>t cover politics in a major way and have ceded that turf to cable. <u+201c>so yes, i believe trump<u+2019>s candidacy is largely a creation of a tv media that wants him, or needs him, to be the central character in this year<u+2019>s political drama,<u+201d> she writes. <u+201c>and it<u+2019>s not just the network and cable executives driving it. the tv anchors and senior executives who don<u+2019>t deliver are mercilessly ousted. the ones who do deliver are lavishly rewarded. i know from personal experience that it is common practice for tv anchors to have substantial bonuses written into their contracts if they hit ratings marks. with this 2016 presidential soap opera, they are almost surely hitting those marks. so, we get all trump, all the time.<u+201d> here<u+2019>s what brown, who candidly admitted she left cnn because she couldn<u+2019>t match the ratings of fox and msnbc, is missing: trump has seized much of the <u+201c>free<u+201d> air time by doing many, many more interviews than his rivals, and by driving the campaign dialogue<u+2014>which all candidates try to do but are usually too cautious or dull to pull off. many reporters have dug hard into trump<u+2019>s businesses, his rhetoric, his promises, his contradictions<u+2014>but these stories and segments have done little to dent his lead. he is seemingly impervious to most media criticism, in part because his supporters don<u+2019>t trust the press, but it<u+2019>s not for lack of trying. a huge portion of the media attention lavished on trump is harshly negative, often from conservative and liberal commentators who oppose him on ideological grounds. trump punches back hard, especially on twitter, though he<u+2019>s toned it down of late. the billionaire actually benefits from denunciations by those his supporters view as members of a failed media/political establishment. and don<u+2019>t forget how the huffington post and new york<u+2019>s daily news have demonized trump from the beginning, or all the mainstream media pundits who spent months insisting he was a sideshow, that he would fade, that this or that controversial remark would produce his imminent demise. there is much to criticize in the media<u+2019>s coverage of donald trump. but to say the media were the engine that powered his candidacy is to miss the way he overpowered his rivals and forged a connection with millions of republican voters. howard kurtz is a fox news analyst and the host of "mediabuzz" (sundays 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. et). he is the author of five books and is based in washington. follow him at @howardkurtz. click here for more information on howard kurtz.

blaming the media for trump: why that utterly misses a political upheaval

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president obama sent a draft authorization for the use of military force to congress on wednesday afternoon, seeking a vote on the formal legal authorization of a limited military campaign against isis. it's a move that's roiling capitol hill and leaving many of his co-partisans a bit puzzled. as one aide to a backbench democrat put it to me, "why is he doing this?" after all, in an exclusive interview with vox published earlier this week, obama observed that "i have the authority as commander-in-chief to send back 200,000 americans to re-occupy iraq" if he wants to: a 2001 resolution passed in the wake of the 9/11 attacks gives the president broad authority if he wants to use it, and this new, more limited resolution the president is asking for doesn't repeal it. that makes the whole thing look pointless to members of congress who don't want to deal with it. but to a president interested in his legacy, the proposed isis aumf is an important step toward re-engaging congress with questions of war and peace <u+2014> and toward addressing some still-unresolved issues in executive power raised back in 2001. one key figure here is denis mcdonough, who is unusual for a white house chief of staff in that he has a background that is primarily on foreign policy issues, and is unusual for a foreign policy specialist in having spent his formative years on capitol hill. when barack obama arrived in the senate in 2005, he was in an unusually favorable position to attract talented congressional staff. democrats had taken a beating in both the 2002 and 2004 cycles, so lots of people needed jobs. as a promising freshman, he was able to hire pete rouse, who just the year before had been chief of staff to democratic senate leader tom daschle. mcdonough came into obama's orbit during the 2008 campaign through rouse, having been daschle's senior foreign policy aide during 9/11 and the debate over invading iraq. this is not a time primarily remembered by the world as an era of legislative sausage-making. but of course things looked different to daschle and his team. the former senate leader recounts in his 2004 book like no other time that he worried the bush administration's initial draft aumf in the wake of 9/11 "was a blank check to go anywhere, anytime against anyone the bush administration or any subsequent administration deemed capable of carrying out an attack." daschle writes of a "frenetic series of discussions" he carried out with the white house, aimed at crafting "language that gave the president the authority he needed without making that authority unlimited." later, discussing iraq, daschle focuses less on the specifics of wmd intelligence or regional strategy than on how "our staffs were negotiating quite intensely with the president's people to hammer out some kind of agreement" on aumf language, and his disappointment that this proved more difficult than the earlier one. in practice, however, that hard work put into the 2001 aumf hasn't panned out mcdonough and others who worked in congress to ensure the grant of authority was limited. both the bush and obama administrations have used its legal authority to mount military campaigns not only in afghanistan but across the border in pakistan, and then around the world from yemen to somalia to libya. while obama has been promiscuous in the range of military targets he's selected, he's also been relatively restrained in terms of the quantity of military force he's willing to apply to any given problem. his successor, except in the very unlikely event of a rand paul win, is quite likely to be more hawkish. and obama's willingness to stretch the meaning of the 2001 aumf to encompass a wide range of violent islamist organizations with no real connection to the 9/11 attack creates a legal principle that could underwrite all kinds of things. obama has no intention of dispatching hundreds of thousands of troops to nigeria to fight boko haram. but under the prevailing legal order he <u+2014> or more to the point, his successor <u+2014> could. osama bin laden has been dead for years now. but it seems clear at this point that a range of violent groups with different degrees of practical and ideological cross-linkages will be a feature of the world for quite a long time. vaguely worded aumfs, in that context, tilt the balance of power toward executive discretion and away from congressional involvement. obama's proposed isis aumf doesn't alter the problematic 2001 aumf. but it does take three important steps back from the brink of a forever war scenario. in a practical sense, of course, obama's hands remain untied <u+2014> which is part of why the debate is vexing to congressional democrats who'd rather deal with other things. but in a political sense, it's a proof of concept. the history of executive-congressional relations on national security is dominated by congress alternating between periods of assertion (notably in the wake of watergate, but also during the reagan years with regards to central america, and in the early 1930s) and periods of abdication. presidents deliberately trying to jolt congress into limiting executive authority are very rare. but with his term in office coming to an end, obama wants to do just that <u+2014> with an eye toward limiting not just his own authority, but his successor's.

obama's big new resolution on isis is really about limiting presidential power

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less than two months after the 2014 elections, the 2016 republican presidential race is taking clear shape <u+2014> with several major players moving quickly to carve out their space (and maybe keep others from carving it up) in the contest. no one typifies that early movement better than former florida governor jeb bush, who has formed a leadership pac, said he is actively exploring a presidential bid and resigned all his roles on corporate and nonprofit boards. that flurry of activity took bush from <u+201c>well, maybe he might run<u+201d> to <u+201c>he<u+2019>s definitely running<u+201d> in the minds of republican activists, political professionals and potential rivals. and he was far from the only one. outgoing texas gov. rick perry, who flopped in his 2012 presidential bid, has made it clear for many months that he plans another run for the white house. ditto his lone star state colleague sen. ted cruz. sen. rand paul (ky.) has been aggressively organizing for his presidential bid almost since arriving in the senate in 2011. on saturday, former arkansas governor mike huckabee joined that growing group by announcing that he was ending his show on fox news channel to seriously consider running for president. <u+201c>as much as i have loved doing the show, i cannot bring myself to rule out another presidential run,<u+201d> huckabee said in a statement on his web site saturday night. <u+201c>i say goodbye, but as we say in television, stay tuned. there<u+2019>s more to come.<u+201d> all the sudden movement <u+2014> particularly from bush and huckabee <u+2014> has the potential to dramatically alter the face of the just-beginning race to be the next republican presidential nominee. bush is, without question, the favorite son of the gop establishment <u+2014> a group that includes, most important, many of the major donors who helped propel his brother george, sen. john mccain (ariz.) and mitt romney to the republican nomination over the past decade and a half. although no one has said that bush being in means they are out <u+2014> sen. marco rubio (fla.), a bush protege, has been most outspoken about that <u+2014> there<u+2019>s no debate that bush takes up lots of space that others would like to occupy. rubio, louisiana gov. bobby jindal, ohio gov. john kasich, wisconsin gov. scott walker and new jersey gov. chris christie are all affected <u+2014> to varying degrees <u+2014> by bush<u+2019>s aggressive move toward the race. and it<u+2019>s hard not to see the decision by sen. rob portman (ohio) not to run <u+2014> announced in late 2014 <u+2014> as anything other than a reaction to the increasing likelihood that bush is in. the effect of huckabee<u+2019>s active consideration of the contest is less obvious than bush<u+2019>s, but no less important. although it has been more than six years since he last ran for president, huckabee remains the preferred candidate of the same social conservatives who propelled him to a surprise win in the 2008 iowa caucuses. huckabee<u+2019>s appeal among social conservatives <u+2014> particularly in iowa <u+2014> will mix up the plans of people such as cruz, neurosurgeon ben carson and former senator rick santorum (pa.), who won iowa in 2012. so, why all the early movement in the 2016 race? at one level, it<u+2019>s not all that unusual. remember that then-iowa gov. tom vilsack (d) got into the 2008 presidential race just two days after the 2006 election ended . but bush and huckabee are not the long shots that vilsack clearly was. (vilsack was out of the race by february 2007, before most people knew he had gotten in.) both are well-known figures who rank at or near the top of most national polling on the race. their decisions to move as aggressively as they have is probably the result of two major factors: fundraising and hillary clinton. to raise north of $75 million, which looks like the floor of what it might require to win the republican nomination, takes lots and lots of time. (romney raised and spent $76.6 million to capture the nomination in 2012.) the sooner a candidate starts building a national cash-collection operation <u+2014> not to mention infrastructures in early states <u+2014> the better. then there is clinton, who looms as the near-certain democratic presidential nominee <u+2014> a fundraising and polling juggernaut who is striking fear in the hearts of republicans who fret about the prospect of spending 16 straight years without control of the white house. clinton<u+2019>s lack of any serious primary competition should <u+2014> emphasis on should <u+2014> allow her to not only conserve cash but also position herself message-wise for the general election almost from the minute she becomes a candidate. (no, her running isn<u+2019>t a done deal. but it<u+2019>s damn close.) the gop knows that, and the party has acted to counter that edge <u+2014> seeking to limit the number of presidential primary debates and strictly control the nominating calendar in hopes of producing a nominee sooner rather than later. some of the major republican candidates are following that lead <u+2014> trying to get the jump on their potential competitors and prove their readiness to take on (and take down) clinton in the general election. what remains to be seen is what the early actions by bush and huckabee <u+2014> among others <u+2014> mean for the race as it goes forward. does bush keep other establishment candidates out? does huckabee actually run, and, if so, what does that mean for cruz and santorum? how will the republican electorate react to such a quick-starting race? more questions than answers. but if the early pace of the 2016 field is any indicator, we will get answers sooner than you might think.

several republican players moving quickly to signal intent to run in 2016

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veterans affairs secretary robert mcdonald on wednesday asked a republican lawmaker who served in both iraq wars, "what have you done?" as the two men sparred over huge cost overruns at a troubled denver va hospital. mcdonald was defending the va's budget at a hearing when he and colorado rep. mike coffman tussled over construction delays and cost increases at the long-delayed hospital project. after a few minutes of arguing, mcdonald snapped at coffman: "i've run a large company, sir. what have you done?" coffman, an army veteran, did not respond at the hearing. but the four-term lawmaker said in a statement later that he could tell mcdonald a few things he hasn't done. "i have never run a federal agency that tolerates corruption the way the va has. i've never built a hospital that's years behind schedule and hundreds of millions over budget. and i've never been a shill for inept bureaucrats who allowed american heroes to die on a medical waiting list," he said. the last comment was a reference to a wait-time scandal that cost former va secretary eric shinseki his job. mcdonald, a former procter & gamble ceo, took over as va secretary in july. he has vowed to improve va's delivery of services such as health care and disability benefits and make it a "model" for other government agencies. the dust-up started when coffman criticized the va for citing its legal efforts to defend the denver hospital project as a major accomplishment. "how is that a success?" coffman asked. "you lost that case on every single point for the hospital in my district that is hundreds of millions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule." "i think that that's just characteristic of your glossing over the extraordinary problems confronted by your department," coffman added. "this is a department mired in bureaucratic incompetence and corruption." mcdonald said he was offended by coffman's remarks and noted that he had only been on the job for six months. "you've been here longer than i have. if there's a problem in denver, i think you own it more than i do," he told coffman. mcdonald then offered to give coffman his cellphone, "and you can answer some of the calls and see if i'm making a difference for veterans."

va secretary asks iraq war veteran: 'what have you done?'

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for the second week in a row, there was a temporary glitch in the associated press<u+2019>s election night data. on tuesday, that glitch was to hillary clinton<u+2019>s favor, showing her with 2,000 more votes in vigo county, indiana, than she actually had. that gave clinton a giant margin in early returns, vastly at odds with what exit polls showed <u+2014> and far bigger than the 7-point margin she enjoyed in the final polling average from realclearpolitics. within minutes, the wrong numbers in vigo county were erased, and, over the next hour or so, clinton<u+2019>s remaining lead started to vanish. it wasn<u+2019>t until about two hours after polls closed <u+2014> at about the same time that ted cruz dropped out of the republican race, all but handing the nomination to donald trump <u+2014> that the democratic race in indiana was called for bernie sanders. he<u+2019>d beaten the polls, as he did in nearby michigan <u+2014> and probably, once all the votes are in, by a wider margin. after sanders lost five<u+00a0>of six<u+00a0>races over the last two weeks and won only the small state of rhode island, the indiana win was no doubt a welcome psychological boost. but why did sanders win michigan and indiana, while losing other midwestern states such as missouri (narrowly), illinois and ohio? unlike in the republican contests, there have been pretty consistent patterns that have defined the democratic matchups. bernie sanders consistently does better with younger and more liberal voters; clinton does better with older, more moderate and black voters. in indiana, preliminary exit poll data reported by cnn showed that the electorate in the state was more likely to identify as liberal than in other midwestern states, and less likely to identify as moderate. what<u+2019>s more, the change since 2008 was much larger than in those other states. but sanders also won michigan, where there were relatively few voters who identified as liberal. the best predictor of outcomes to date is how many black voters came to the polls. there<u+2019>s been a correlation between how many black people live in a state and how well hillary clinton has done there, an effect that<u+2019>s slightly stronger in states with closed primaries (meaning that independents, who strongly back sanders, can<u+2019>t vote). indiana<u+2019>s population was right at the inflection point of those curves, right at the point where you<u+2019>d expect a close race. on tuesday night, the percentage of the electorate that was black was slightly lower than the average of all contests for which we have polling data so far, but not dramatically so. black voters preferred clinton by a 3-to-1 margin. but white voters <u+2014> nearly three-quarters of the electorate <u+2014> leaned heavily toward sanders, giving him nearly six<u+00a0>in 10 of their votes. (on average so far, the two have been equally matched, about 50-50.) sanders also did better with the upper end of the young-voter bracket, a group that turned out more heavily than they did in 2008. those two shifts made the difference. it wasn<u+2019>t totally unexpected that sanders would pull out a win in the state, despite the polls being against him. fivethirtyeight<u+2019>s model, which looks at racial composition and the type of primary, figured that sanders would win by 7 points <u+2014> slightly more than where it is right now. despite sanders<u+2019>s win, and despite slightly narrowing the delegate gap with clinton, sanders<u+2019>s position for winning the nomination actually got worse. he needed, by our estimates, to win 64.9 percent of the delegates to stay on track to pass hillary clinton. he'll end up getting somewhere around 53 percent of them, if current figures hold. meaning that he<u+2019>ll need even more of what remains in order to possibly pass clinton<u+2019>s pledged delegate total <u+2014> demonstrating again why doing so is a nearly impossible feat. (the indiana results also made it impossible for sanders to clinch the nomination with pledged delegates.) what<u+2019>s particularly remarkable about the night<u+2019>s results is that donald trump was expected to win, did, and knocked ted cruz out of the race. hillary clinton was expected to win and didn<u+2019>t, and bernie sanders soldiers on despite underperforming on the delegates he needs in order to win and despite the fundamentals of the democratic race having not changed in nearly two months. part of that loops back to the way the democratic race is divisive in the way the republican race isn<u+2019>t. there are very passionate groups of supporters for bernie sanders that want him to keep fighting. so he<u+2019>ll keep fighting. and, as with tuesday night, occasionally winning.

how bernie sanders beat the polls and won indiana

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the recent formal entries into the republican race by marco rubio, rand paul and ted cruz have stirred up the gop field somewhat, but still, no clear leader has emerged. the new poll finds jeb bush has held on to the top spot among republicans and republican-leaning independents, but bush's edge is slight and there are multiple contenders for the nomination who could overtake him with just a small increase in support at the same time that some previously strong contenders have faded. overall, 17% of republicans and republican-leaning independents back bush for the gop nomination, while 12% support wisconsin gov. scott walker. paul and rubio stand at 11% each, with former arkansas gov. mike huckabee at 9% and cruz at 7%. former neurosurgeon ben carson and new jersey gov. chris christie, both of whom placed second in cnn/orc polls as recently as last fall, are now well behind the leader at 4% each. bush's edge in the nomination contest extends across several attributes viewed as key to winning the presidency. he is most often named as the candidate with the right experience to be president (27%), as the one with the best chance of beating the democratic nominee in the general election next november (26%) and as the strongest leader in the large field of gop contenders (21%). he is also more often seen as the candidate with the clearest vision for the country's future (19%), who cares the most about people like you (18%), and who most closely shares your values (19%). on one metric, however, bush has an emerging challenger. while 18% see bush as the candidate who best represents the future of the republican party, the same share say fellow floridian rubio is the best representation of the gop's future. paul, at 10%, is the only other candidate in double digits on this question. former florida gov. jeb bush has said his decision to run for the republican nomination will be based on two things: his family and whether he can lift america's spirit. his father and brother are former presidents. wisconsin gov. scott walker has created a political committee that will help him travel and raise money while he considers a 2016 bid. additionally, billionaire businessman david koch said in a private gathering in manhattan this month that he wants walker to be the next president, but he doesn't plan to back anyone in the primaries. louisiana gov. bobby jindal is establishing a committee to formally explore a white house bid. "if i run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the american people are ready to try a dramatically different direction," he said in a news release provided to cnn on monday, may 18 , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. he first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of thursday, april 30. sen. bernie sanders , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. he first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of thursday, april 30. on march 2, retired neurosurgeon ben carson announced the launch of an exploratory committee. the move will allow him to raise money that could eventually be transferred to an official presidential campaign and indicates he is on track with stated plans to formally announce a bid in may. south carolina sen. lindsey graham has said he'll make a decision about a presidential run sometime soon. a potential bid could focus on graham's foreign policy stance. hillary clinton launched her presidential bid sunday, april 12, through a video message on social media. she continues to be considered the overwhelming front-runner among possible 2016 democratic presidential candidates. sen. marco rubio announced his bid for the 2016 presidency on monday, april 13, a day after hillary clinton, with a rally in florida. he's a republican rising star from florida who swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. but his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the senate but has stalled in the house, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects. lincoln chafee, a republican-turned-independent-turned-democrat former governor and senator of rhode island, said he's running for president on thursday, april 16, as a democrat, but his spokeswoman said the campaign is still in the presidential exploratory committee stages. jim webb, the former democratic senator from virginia, is entertaining a 2016 presidential run. in january, he told npr that his party has not focused on white, working-class voters in past elections. vice president joe biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the oval office -- in 1988 and 2008. a former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good president." new jersey gov. chris christie has started a series of town halls in new hampshire to test the presidential waters, becoming more comfortable talking about national issues and staking out positions on hot topic debates. rep. paul ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's keeping his "options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it. sen. rand paul officially announced his presidential bid on tuesday, april 7, at a rally in louisville, kentucky. the tea party favorite probably will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation and his assertion that the top nsa official lied to congress about surveillance. texas sen. ted cruz announced his 2016 presidential bid on monday, march 23, in a speech at liberty university. the first-term republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. he is best known in the senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding obamacare. democrat martin o'malley, the former maryland governor, released a "buzzy" political video in november 2013 in tandem with visits to new hampshire. he also headlined a democratic party event in south carolina, which holds the first southern primary. republican rick perry, the former texas governor, announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation that he might mount a second white house bid. former pennsylvania sen. rick santorum, a social conservative, gave mitt romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including iowa and south carolina. political observers expect new york gov. andrew cuomo to yield to hillary clinton's run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two democrats from the empire state. the poll suggests rubio's campaign rollout has helped raise his profile in the party, boosting him into the top five in the overall race for the gop nomination. but sustaining that momentum through the many campaign rollouts to come could be a challenge. cruz's announcement raised his numbers among tea party backers, but he has shown little improvement elsewhere. among tea party supporters, cruz and walker tie for the top slot at 15%, rubio follows at 14%, paul 12%, and bush 11% with the rest in single digits. in a march cnn/orc poll, cruz had just 6% among tea party backers, walker had 22%. cruz and walker's tea party strength seems to rest on their credentials as strong leaders, perhaps burnished by their high-profile stands on obama's health care overhaul in the senate and labor issues in wisconsin, respectively: 21% of tea party republicans call cruz the strongest leader in the field, 16% say walker is. the poll finds little sign of an announcement bump for paul. in general, republicans see bush as the best possible candidate to match up against the democratic nominee in 2016, but in hypothetical general election matchups against clinton, bush trails by a large margin, as do each of the other seven republicans tested. related: ready to run hillary clinton tries again marco rubio fares best against the former first lady, trailing clinton by 14 points, 55% to 41%. bush trails clinton by 17 points, 56% to 39%. christie and paul fall 19 points behind clinton, each putting up 39% to clinton's 58%. huckabee, walker, carson and cruz each trail clinton by more than 20 points. clinton declared her candidacy for the democratic nomination for president with a web video and promptly hit the road to iowa and new hampshire. her campaign begins in an extremely strong position among democrats nationwide: nearly 7 in 10 democrats and democratic-leaning independents support her. overall, 69% back the former secretary of state over vice president joe biden (11%), vermont senator bernie sanders (5%), former virginia senator jim webb (3%), former rhode island governor lincoln chafee (1%) and former maryland governor martin o'malley (1%). clinton is also the second choice of just over half of the democrats who prefer someone else for the nomination. all told, clinton is the first or second choice of 83% of the potential democratic electorate. jim webb: "i look forward to listening and talking with more people in the coming months as i decide whether or not to run." joe biden: "that's a family personal decision that i'm going to make sometime at the end of the summer." martin o'malley: "i've been very encouraged as i travel around the country by a number of people who repeat again and again and again their desire for getting things done again as a country and also for new leadership to get those things done." elizabeth warren: "i'm not running for president....i don't get who writes these headlines or what they're about. i think there's just kind of a pundit world out there." jerry brown: "if no one runs and [everyone] says we'll have an absent democratic nominee, would i rule that out? i mean, that would be a little silly, wouldn't it?" former rhode island governor lincoln chafee is a one-time republican, turned independent, now democrat and is exploring a run for the presidency. on hillary clinton, he told cnn "... anybody who voted for the iraq war should not be president and certainly should not be leading the democratic party." bernie sanders: "i haven't made up my final decision and i've got to say a lot of my strongest supporters say, 'bernie, you've gotta stay out of the damn democratic party, run as an independent." kirsten gillibrand: the new york senator has said she'll support hillary clinton "110 percent." andrew cuomo (in 2014): "i'm focusing on running for governor. and then i'm going to focus on being the best governor i can be." brian schweitzer: when asked by time if he would be a better candidate for president than clinton: "well, i think so, of course. i think i have a background and a resume that isn't just in government." any possible democratic competitors face a steep uphill battle in trying to draw support away from clinton. democrats are broadly enthusiastic about a clinton candidacy, far more than they are for any other potential nominee. overall, 58% of democrats say they would be enthusiastic if she won the party's nomination. about a quarter say they would be enthusiastic about a biden nomination (26%) while 11% say so about sanders, 7% webb, 6% o'malley and 2% chafee. one area where clinton's numbers wilt: only about half of democratic men (49%) say they would be enthusiastic about having clinton atop the democratic ticket, compared with nearly two-thirds of democratic women (65%). democrats overwhelmingly see clinton as holding several presidential characteristics. nearly 9 in 10 democrats see clinton as a strong and decisive leader (88% say that description applies to her) and as having a vision for the country's future (88%). about 8 in 10 say she represents the future of the democratic party (82%) and cares about people like them (82%). democrats are slightly less apt to say clinton is honest and trustworthy, though three-quarters do view her as honest (75%, about the same as in march). the cnn/orc international poll was conducted by telephone, april 16-19, among a random national sample of 1,018 adult americans. results for the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. among the 435 republicans and independents who lean republican, it is 4.5 points, and among the 458 democrats and independents who lean democratic, it is 4.5 points.

as campaigns launch, poll finds gop field stays tight

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the flag at desert hot springs' condor gun shop flew at half-staff on friday morning. less than two days had passed since two shooters, armed with four guns, killed 14 people and wounded 21 more at an office holiday party in san bernardino. the shooting, which the fbi is investigating as an "act of terrorism," forced the nation's attention to the city 40 miles west of desert hot springs. it also prompted a flood of calls to condor gun shop, an unheated cabin across from a swath of open desert at the edge of the city. "since (wednesday), my phone has been ringing off the hook," said torrey harris, whose family has owned the shop since 1971. "it didn't stop ringing until 11:30 at night." harris said that, after most mass shootings, longtime gun owners seek to stock up on weapons and ammunition that they think california will try to ban in reaction to the incidents of violence. the state legislature often passes a slew of gun control laws in the months after these tragedies. but harris said the response she saw after san bernardino was different. "i would say a good 40% of my calls (wednesday) were people who have never owned a firearm in their life," harris said. gun control activists already say wednesday's shooting demonstrates the need for background checks for ammunition sales. but even california's gun control laws, among the strictest in the nation, haven't prevented seven mass shootings using legally purchased guns since 2006. gun rights advocates maintain that laws don't affect criminals and only make it more difficult for people to protect themselves. harris believes some of those people calling her shop have adopted a similar position. "they looked at (san bernardino) and said, 'you know what, we have to be able to fight back, and i'm not going to be the person cowering in the corner of a room waiting to be shot,'" she said. data on mass shootings is sparse, and even the definition of "mass shooting" varies widely. the fbi, for instance, defines the events as incidents where at least four people are killed, while a popular online "shooting tracker" states that a mass shooting occurs when at least four people, including the shooter, are injured by gunshots. by the fbi's definition, as counted by usa today, there have been 22 mass shootings this year; by the shooting tracker's analysis, san bernardino was number 353 and one of two mass shootings that day. despite this variance, experts don't believe mass shootings are happening more often than they did in past decades. in california and across the country, violent crimes with firearms have declined significantly since the 1980s. at the same time, however, we've become more afraid. "it was sandy hook that really got people's attention and started this intense focus on (shootings)," said james alan fox, a northeastern university criminologist who's written several books on mass murder, referring to the 2012 shooting at sandy hook elementary school in newtown, conn. since then, he said, "even though the incidence hasn't increased, fear has." a 2015 congressional research service report on mass public shootings found that 2012 was a particularly brutal year <u+2014> seven mass public shootings, compared to an average of four per year <u+2014> and suggested that the horrific year had a lasting impact on public opinion. "several such mass murders in 2012, seven incidents by most counts, compounded a fear among many people that, 'this could happen to me'," the authors of the report wrote. after the december 2012 shooting at sandy hook, support for controls on gun ownership spiked to 51% of the u.s. population <u+2014>its highest level in five years, according to the pew research center. support for laws protecting the right to own guns fell from 49% to 42%. polls showed a return to pre-sandy hook opinion levels about six months later. but in comparison, a shooting that killed six people at a 2011 rally for ariz. rep. gabrielle giffords didn't significantly impact public opinion on gun control, according to a poll conducted in the following days by the pew research center. neither did a 2007 shooting at virginia tech that killed 32 people. for some, that fear has resulted in a new desire to bear arms. pew data suggests that, in 1999, nearly half of gun owners bought them for hunting, compared to 26% for personal protection. by feb. 2013, those positions had almost reversed: nearly half of gun owners wanted weapons for personal protection, compared to 32% for hunting. condor gun shop owner harris said, in the last five years, she's begun selling firearms to more women and first-time buyers. during the last 10 years, the national shooting sports foundation, the trade group for firearms manufacturers, has also seen a steady increase in first-time and female gun owners. about 25 to 30% of customers are first-time gun buyers, who often purchase a gun for protection. more than 30% of customers are women, nssf spokesman mike bazinet said. harris said she's started asking first-time gun owners what changed their minds about purchasing a firearm. more and more people tell her that they want to be responsible for their own safety. "just like buying car insurance, you go out and you buy it and you hope you never have to use it, but you're really thankful if you ever get into an accident. and a lot of people who buy these firearms do the same thing," harris said. "it really has changed, the whole mindset of a lot of people who are buying guns now." but, according to san bernardino police, syed rizwan farook <u+2014> one of the san bernardino shooters <u+2014> purchased his two guns legally from a federal licensed firearms dealer. another person bought two .223-caliber rifles <u+2014>a dpms a-15 and smith & wesson m&p15 <u+2014> legally. only the shooters' modification attempts to the assault weapons, to make one rifle accept 30-round magazines and one rifle fully automatic, made them illegal to possess. so for gun control advocates, mass shootings are sirens, calling for further limits on access to guns. in the wake of the sandy hook shooting, for example, the california state legislature passed at least 14 bills tightening restrictions on gun ownership <u+2014> more gun laws than it had passed in the previous six years combined. gov. jerry brown signed laws banning conversion kits for ammunition magazines, toughening mental health reporting requirements and closing a "loophole" that allowed single-shot handguns to bypass safety requirements. in 2014, a bill cited a shooting in isla vista <u+2014><u+00a0>when a gunman shot and killed three people and fatally stabbed three others near the university of california santa barbara campus <u+2014><u+00a0>as the reason for its necessity. that measure, now a law, allows judges to temporarily keep people from purchasing or possessing guns if family members or law enforcement think they might harm themselves or others. while nearly 40 states have relaxed gun rules in the last two decades, california has enacted more than 50 major gun bills since 1994. the pro-gun control law center to prevent gun violence, based in san francisco, gave california's laws an a- in 2014, the highest grade given to any state. guns & ammo magazine, with a pro-gun rights stance, ranked the state fourth-worst in the country for gun ownership. already, in the wake of the san bernardino tragedy, gun control advocates are touting a 2016 ballot initiative that lt. gov. gavin newsom proposed in october. the measure proposes background checks for ammunition purchases and bans possession of high capacity magazines. "ammunition is what makes a firearm into a deadly weapon, and we should have background checks on firearms and ammunition," law center staff attorney ari freilich said. "these individuals, it looks like they stockpiled 3,000 to 4,000 rounds of ammunition. they did it without having to show id, without having to pass a background check." prior to san bernardino, california had seen seven public shootings since 2006 that claimed four or more lives (not counting those police believe were gang-related), according to usa today's "behind the bloodshed" tracker. in four of those shootings, the weapons shooters used were purchased legally and registered to the shooters. in two other incidents, the guns were purchased legally but registered to other people. in only one incident, the 2013 rampage near santa monica college, did law enforcement say that the weapons used were illegal in california. "here (in california), as pretty much everywhere in the country, anybody who isn't disqualified by virtue of them having a felony conviction can get a gun, and can get a bunch of guns, and can get guns that are quite deadly, because guns are deadly," said eugene volokh, a professor of constitutional law at ucla and writer for "the volokh conspiracy," a legal blog hosted by the washington post. freilich believes mass shootings with guns that have been purchased legally, like wednesday's in san bernardino, emphasize the need for more stringent gun control. "i do think (san bernardino) highlights to legislators and to the california public that despite all that we've done <u+2014> california has the toughest gun laws in the nation <u+2014> more clearly needs to be done," freilich said. since the late 1980s, the crime rate has dropped in california and nationally by about 50%, according to the california attorney general's office and the fbi. gun control advocates attribute that drop in california in part to gun control laws. however, some researchers, including volokh, doubt that conclusion<u+2014> pointing out that violence has dropped nationwide even though most states have loosened gun control laws and california is widely known to have the strictest laws in the nation. the percentage of homicide victims killed by firearms has remained steady in california since 1990, according to the california attorney general's homicide report. realistically, the battle to prevent mass tragedies with legislation may be futile, volokh said. "let's look at somebody who is a would-be mass shooter. this person has essentially decided to have the defining event of his life, and possibly the concluding event of his life, be mass murder," volokh said. "this is somebody who is very motivated to commit the crime, and again, we know he is motivated because he's willing to give up his life to do that." wednesday's shooting was perpetrated by people determined to kill, volokh said. the shooters, syed rizwan farook and tashfeen malik, have been identified as husband and wife, and investigators found a dozen pipe bombs and more than 4,500 rounds of ammunition in the home they were renting in redlands. the fbi is investigating the mass shooting as an 'act of terrorism.' while gun control may help reduce violence in general, criminologist james alan fox doesn't think legislation will help prevent mass shootings like these. "gun control can do a lot in terms of impacting the kind of gun crime you see every day. will it avert mass killings? not really," fox said. "they'll find a way to get a gun. if they can't get one legally, which most of them can, they'll borrow one, steal one <u+2014> but they'll get one." for torrey harris of condor gun shop, this tragic conversation is becoming routine. "i've gone through this so many times now, i know how the cycle goes," harris said. "there are going to be people who are yelling and screaming for more gun laws and people who are going to be yelling and screaming for less, and unfortunately, probably nothing is going to happen, which i think frustrates both sides." on friday, it was business as usual at harris' gun shop. a customer walked in the door, hoping to buy a handgun. harris began the legal steps of selling a gun in california, asking the customer for identification, proof of residency and his firearm safety certificate. now, he'll have to submit to a background check. in 10 days, he can pick up his gun. the process of purchasing a gun in california <u+2022>obtain a firearm safety certificate by passing a knowledge test. the test, made up of 30 true-false and multiple-choice questions, is drawn from a 46-page study guide available online. copies of the test are available in english and spanish. <u+2022>present the firearm safety certificate, a california id or driver's license and a utility bill or car registration with your current address to a licensed firearms dealer. <u+2022>choose your firearm. according to the california department of justice, there are currently 822 handgun models approved for sale in the state. long guns are subject to individual regulations rather than a pre-approved list. <u+2022>get a handling demonstration from the seller, including how to load, unload and lock the gun. the seller and buyer must both sign an affidavit saying the demonstration occurred. <u+2022>pay for the gun and keep your receipt. <u+2022>return in 10 days to pick up the gun, provided you passed the background check. <u+2022>at this time, buy a gun lock or show a receipt to show that you bought one in the last 30 days.

determined to kill: can tough gun laws end mass shootings?

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while us leaders remain bogged down in debate over global warming, local communities are acting on their own to hold back rising seas. witness miami beach's elevated streets. florida<u+2019>s state leaders are running hard from climate change. the governor, rick scott, doesn<u+2019>t want state employees to even utter the words. former gov. jeb bush and us sen. marco rubio, both republican presidential aspirants, offer a medley of objections to scientists<u+2019> calls for bold action on climate change. eric carpenter shrugs. the director of miami beach<u+2019>s public works department sits at his desk, poring over tables of high tides on his computer. he is calculating how many pumps he needs to buy to keep the city<u+2019>s streets from being flooded from a rising sea caused by climate change. under a broiling sun, he takes a visitor a few blocks from his office, to where contractors are pouring concrete to replace a section of a city street. the new roadway is being laid incongruously 2-1/2 feet above the sidewalk cafe tables and storefront entrances at the old street level. the extra height is in preparation for the seas and tides that mr. carpenter already sees engulfing this section of miami beach. <u+201c>the facts are the facts, and we have to deal with them,<u+201d> he says. in city after city in south florida, local officials are dealing with climate change. so, too, are municipalities big and small across the united states. the same determination is evident among governors and legislators in more than two dozen states. and it is magnified worldwide: surprising progress in grappling with global warming is coming from surprising nations. this groundswell of action on climate change is producing solutions and often bypassing lagging political leadership. the gathering force of these acts, significant and subtle, is transforming what once seemed a hopeless situation into one in which success can at least be imagined. the initiatives are not enough to halt the world<u+2019>s plunge toward more global warming <u+2013> yet. but they do point toward a turning point in greenhouse gas emissions, and ambitious <u+2013> if still uneven <u+2013> efforts to adapt to the changes already in motion. <u+201c>the troops on the ground, the local officials and stakeholders, are acting, even in the face of a total lack of support on the top level,<u+201d> says michael mann, a prominent climate scientist at pennsylvania state university in state college, pa. <u+201c>the impacts of climate change are pretty bad and projected to get much worse if we continue business as usual. but there still is time to avert what we might reasonably describe as a true catastrophe. there are some signs we are starting to turn the corner.<u+201d> philip levine, the mayor of miami beach, agrees. <u+201c>we may not have all the answers,<u+201d> he says. <u+201c>but we<u+2019>re going to show that miami beach is not going to sit back and go underwater.<u+201d> representatives from more than 190<u+00a0>countries will gather in paris in december to try to agree on international strategies for dealing with climate change. they will be spurred by their own alarm at a succession of storms, droughts, and heat waves affecting millions of people on the planet, and by outside calls, such as the moral edict from pope francis, to care more about the world. the record of past such meetings is not encouraging. but the representatives will arrive as progress on curbing greenhouse gas emissions, often overlooked, has been mounting: <u+2022>wind and solar power generation are bounding ahead faster than the most optimistic predictions, with a fivefold increase worldwide since 2004. more than 1 in 5 buildings in countries such as denmark, germany, sweden, and even albania are now powered by renewable energy. <u+2022>the us saw its greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2007. they have fallen about 10 percent since, and are roughly on course to meet president obama<u+2019>s pledge to reduce emissions in the next 10 years by about 27 percent from their peak. <u+2022>china, the world<u+2019>s largest carbon emitter, paradoxically leads the world in installed wind and solar power, and is charging ahead on renewables. china and the us ended their impasse over who is most responsible to fix global warming, agreeing in november to mutually ambitious goals. experts say china already has cut coal consumption by 8 percent this year, and the environmental group greenpeace says china stopped construction of some new coal power plants. <u+2022>worldwide, carbon dioxide emissions, a principal component of greenhouse gases, did not grow in 2014, according to the international energy agency. emissions remained flat even as the global economy grew <u+2013> an important milestone. <u+2022>coal-fired power plants are being replaced rapidly by natural gas plants, which are cleaner and emit half the greenhouse gases. britain saw an 8 percent drop in greenhouse gas emissions last year, which is attributed to national energy policies, more energy efficiency, and the switch from coal. <u+2022>tropical rainforests, which absorb carbon dioxide, are being cut down at a slower rate than in the past <u+2013> 13 million hectares per year, compared with 16 million in the 1990s, according to the latest figures from the united nations food and agriculture organization. that is still alarmingly high but shows progress, in part because of vows by big corporations not to buy palm oil grown on deforested lands. brazil has made notable progress in reducing deforestation of the amazon. in the us, state and local governments are taking bold action even as the national discussion about the looming climate crisis remains paralyzed along political lines. in south florida, for example, officials of four populous counties shun the rhetoric from gop presidential aspirants and officials in the state capital and gather regularly to plot cooperative climate change strategy. that group, the southeast florida regional climate change compact, is considered a national model for the kind of shoulder-to-shoulder effort needed to address the problem. they came up with an agreed estimate of sea level rise and identified the most vulnerable areas of the region, and now are plowing through more than 100 recommendations for action. <u+201c>there are no new funding sources coming down from the state or the feds,<u+201d> says susanne torriente, assistant city manager for fort lauderdale, one of the participants of the compact. <u+201c>would it be good to have state and federal dollars? yes. are we going to wait until they act? no.<u+201d> their cooperation was born, essentially, on the back of a napkin. kristin jacobs, now a state representative who was a broward county commissioner in 2008, was lamenting at the time that the 27 disparate municipal water authorities in the region could not agree on joint action. so she and others came up with the idea of getting local officials together in a classroom. <u+201c>we said, <u+2018>let<u+2019>s have an academy,<u+2019> <u+201d> she recalls, and the broward leaders water academy began offering elected officials in south florida six-month courses in water hydraulics and policy. it has now graduated <u+201c>three generations of elected officials,<u+201d> she says. figuring out what to do about climate change <u+2013> whether it is building up dunes on the beaches, raising the height of foundations, or shifting developments back from the coastline <u+2013> takes a cooperative approach. <u+201c>we couldn<u+2019>t do it by just saying <u+2018>this is the way it is<u+2019> <u+2013> the moses approach,<u+201d> ms. jacobs says. <u+201c>we had to do it with compliance and acquiescence and leadership.<u+201d> normally, direction on some of these issues might have come from state officials. but not in florida. not on climate change. <u+201c>we didn<u+2019>t have to worry about those who don<u+2019>t believe,<u+201d> jacobs says. <u+201c>at the end of the day, when the water is overtopping your sea wall, you don<u+2019>t really care that you didn<u+2019>t believe in climate change last week. you do believe in it this week.<u+201d> built on the edge of the sea,<u+00a0>miami beach is one of the most vulnerable cities in the world to the vicissitudes of the ocean. its boutique commercial district and canyons of pastel apartments sit on a sieve of porous limestone. the leaky footing was formed over the eons from accumulated seashells, coral, and fish skeletons. today the rock acts as a giant wick, giving the relentless ocean a route for subterranean attack. seawater pushes in from underground and often gurgles to the surface in inconvenient places. on days of really high tides <u+2013> even without any rain <u+2013> the briny invasion turns some city streets into small lakes, snarling traffic and cutting off businesses. locals call it <u+201c>sunny day flooding.<u+201d> the man charged with stopping the sea <u+2013> or at least getting tourists and residents out of its way <u+2013> is carpenter, an affable engineer with a burly physique. carpenter took over the city<u+2019>s public works department two years ago. his recurring nightmare is of rising seas, frequent storms, and <u+201c>king<u+201d> tides sweeping through miami beach <u+2013> and doing it in full view of the world. he knows that whatever the city does <u+2013> or does not do <u+2013> to prepare for climate change will be tested soon on a stage before a global audience. <u+201c>what we do here is magnified because of who we are,<u+201d> he says. miami beach thrives on a global reputation for glamour, for cultural fusion, for beaches, for heat <u+2013> from the sun in the day and its epicurean club culture at night. that<u+2019>s not an image that sits well with flooded streets. but the water is already coming. as the atlantic ocean warms and expands, fed by melting polar ice caps, the seawater is pushing back into the 330 storm-water pipe outlets designed to drain rain from city streets. so miami beach is in the process of installing as many as 80 pumps, at a cost of nearly $400 million, to make sure the water flows outward. <u+201c>if the seas are continuing to rise, and the tidal events are higher than the inland elevation, we have to pump,<u+201d> says carpenter. the city plans to raise the level of 30 percent of its streets, encouraging businesses to abandon or remodel their first floors to go to a higher level. carpenter says he wanted to go up nearly six feet, but town officials said <u+201c>we are going too fast.<u+201d> so they settled on just over three feet. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t think this is where we want to be long-term, but it<u+2019>s enough to get us through the next 10 or 20 years,<u+201d> he says, while standing on a new section of road at sunset harbor, looking down at the cafe tables on the sidewalk below, where the street used to be. mayor levine echoes the importance of dealing with the future encroachment of the sea <u+2013> now. <u+201c>we did not ask for climate change or sea level rise,<u+201d> he says. <u+201c>but we are the tip of the spear. we don<u+2019>t debate the reason why; we just come up with solutions.<u+201d> forty miles to the north, past fort lauderdale, randy brown and his utilities staff in pompano beach are also trying to halt the sea. like the rest of south florida, the coastal city of 100,000 residents is confronting the ocean above and below ground. they are burying a new network of water pipes <u+2013> painted grape purple <u+2013> running to businesses and homes. the pipes contain sewer water that has been treated to remove the smell and bacteria and then siphoned from a pipe that used to discharge it into the sea. pompano beach residents use the water for their lawns and gardens, bypassing the restrictive bans on lawn sprinkling. this recycled water then trickles down into the biscayne aquifer. cleansed as it sifts through the ground, it helps reduce the shrinking of the freshwater aquifer, which is being drawn down by the town<u+2019>s 26 wells and is threatened by underground salt water pushed inland by the rising sea level. homeowners pay about two-thirds less for the recycled water than they do for potable water. when city officials first laid out the program at a public meeting, bringing a cake to set a neighborly tone, <u+201c>it was a fiasco. [residents] called it dangerous,<u+201d> chuckles maria loucraft, a utilities manager. now, people <u+201c>say they can<u+2019>t wait for it to get to their area,<u+201d> adds isabella slagle, who goes to public events with a mascot, a purple-colored sprinkler head with sunglasses, named <u+201c>squirt<u+201d> by elementary school students. green lawns trump the political arguments over climate change, says mr. brown. <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t say <u+2018>climate change,<u+2019> <u+201d> he admits. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s <u+2018>protecting resources<u+2019> or <u+2018>sustainability.<u+2019> that way, you can duck under the political radar.<u+201d> some don<u+2019>t want to avoid the radar. last october, the south miami city commission voted to create <u+201c>south florida<u+201d> and secede from the rest of the state, in part because, they said, the state government in tallahassee was not responding to their pleas to help them deal with climate change. <u+201c>it got a lot of press but nobody in the state took it very seriously,<u+201d> muses the mayor, philip stoddard, over a sandwich on the campus of florida international university, where he is a biology professor. <u+201c>but it did get people talking about climate change.<u+201d> <u+201c>my house is at 10 feet elevation,<u+201d> he adds. <u+201c>my wife and i <u+2013> our question is <u+2013> will we be able to live out our lives in our house? i<u+2019>m 58. we don<u+2019>t know. it<u+2019>s going to be a close one. if you look at the official sea level projections, they keep going up, which is a little disquieting. if you look at the unofficial projections, they scare the hell out of you.<u+201d> while south florida is a leader at local cooperation, officials in towns and cities across the country are struggling to react to a warming climate. many municipalities have drafted action plans. boston is converting its taxis to hybrids and requires new buildings to be built with higher foundations. chicago is planting green gardens on city roofs to reduce the air conditioning needed to cool buildings. seattle is helping residents install solar panels. montpelier, vt., vows to eliminate all fossil fuel use by 2030. houston is laying down <u+201c>cool pavements<u+201d> made of reflective and porous material, and planting trees for shade. governors and state legislators across the country have gotten the message, too. while congress will not debate the <u+201c>big fix<u+201d> <u+2013> putting a price or a cap on carbon pollution <u+2013> some states are already doing it. about 30 percent of americans live in states that have rules capping carbon dioxide emissions and markets that allow companies to buy and sell carbon credits. in addition, 28 states have set mandatory quotas for renewable energy from their electric utilities. seven states have set ambitious targets for overall greenhouse gas reductions <u+2013> california has promised a reduction of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. <u+201c>the best thing congress can do right now is stay out of the way,<u+201d> says anna aurilio, director of the washington office of the nonprofit advocacy group environment america. between the state efforts and the executive orders by mr. obama, she says, the us is on track to meet the administration<u+2019>s greenhouse gas goals. <u+201c>when we look at programs currently in place or set to be implemented, we can come close to the us commitment<u+201d> of a 27 percent decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in 10 years, she says. <u+201c>but we know we have to go much, much further.<u+201d> to get near the goal of keeping average global warming at 2 degrees celsius (3.6 degrees fahrenheit) or less, climatologists predict that countries must largely abandon the fossil fuels that have driven technological societies since the industrial age <u+2013> achieving an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. that is an imposing goal, since billions of dollars are invested in new and existing fossil fuel power plants that can last 30 to 50 years. even if solar or wind energy is cheaper than coal, oil, and natural gas, the owners of fossil fuel plants will be reluctant to abandon their investments. but the decisions are starting to come from the people, not just governments or corporations. <u+201c>when you have enough action taking place at the grass roots, sometimes that<u+2019>s a more effective means of implementing change on a large scale,<u+201d> says penn state<u+2019>s mr. mann. nicole hammer is one of the foot soldiers in the new war on global warming. a biologist, consultant, and former assistant director of a university center on climate change, she quit and decided to work with nonprofit groups, including the moms clean air force, an organization that campaigns to stem air pollution and climate change. <u+201c>i realized we have more than enough science to take action on climate change,<u+201d> she says while walking at an ecology park near her home in vero beach, fla. <u+201c>people who normally wouldn<u+2019>t be involved in environmental issues are starting to speak out.<u+201d> she believes community involvement is the key to solutions, because the problems are felt most keenly at that level. <u+201c>we have people in communities who have to put their kids in shopping carts to get across flooded streets to get food,<u+201d> she says. <u+201c>when you see that happening <u+2013> and then you see people at high levels denying it <u+2013> it<u+2019>s disappointing and it<u+2019>s incredibly frustrating.<u+201d> public outcry has helped close coal-burning power plants, which produce the dirtiest energy. coal plants now provide about one-third of the electricity in the us <u+2013> down from more than half in 1990. tightening pollution standards and cheaper natural gas prices have prompted utilities to close 200 coal-fired plants since 2010, the sierra club estimates, and the trend would only accelerate under new clean air regulations unveiled by obama in early august. until recently, one argument against closing coal plants was that if the us didn<u+2019>t burn its own abundant coal reserves, they would just be exported to china. but chinese authorities are so sobered by their public<u+2019>s resentment of the thick coal soot and industrial pollution that they are turning with startling speed to renewables. china reached a significant agreement with the us in november to cap its greenhouse gas pollutions by 2030, and further impressed experts in july by promising to ramp up renewables to provide 20 percent of its power, a sharp turn away from its pace of bringing a new coal power plant on line every 10 days. <u+201c>china has become a policy innovator,<u+201d> says nathaniel keohane, vice president of the environmental defense fund, who worked on international climate issues in the obama administration. other countries are plotting their own ways to curb greenhouse gases. germany, italy, japan, and spain are ramping up solar energy. france has embraced nuclear. denmark, portugal, and nicaragua led in wind power in 2014. brazil is adding hydroelectric plants as well as sharply reducing deforestation. kenya and turkey are tapping geothermal power. and smaller countries such as costa rica, iceland, and paraguay have found financial and tourism benefits in being at or very near <u+201c>carbon neutral.<u+201d> still, the current projections from the intergovernmental panel on climate change on when the world will see a significant decline in global emissions vary widely <u+2013> from about 2030 to after 2100 <u+2013> based on guesses of how countries respond. but the dramatic shift to natural gas in the us, and the racehorse expansion of hydraulic fracturing to get it, are demonstrations that if new technologies are profitable, industries can pivot quickly. <u+201c>we can make that turn,<u+201d> mr. keohane predicts. <u+201c>imagine the day when emissions are falling instead of rising. imagine when we are winning rather than losing.<u+201d>

climate change crusade goes local

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a suicide bomber believed to be linked to the islamic state struck the historic heart of istanbul on tuesday, killing at least 10 people in what would be the group<u+2019>s first major attack on turkey<u+2019>s vital tourism industry. the bombing, which injured 15 others, took place in the shadow of the city<u+2019>s famous nine-domed blue mosque, which draws visitors from around the world. most of the victims were german nationals, turkish officials said. the targeting of turkey<u+2019>s tourism trade puts the group on a more direct collision course with the turkish state, which has been criticized for not doing enough to prevent militants from using the country as a crucial route for recruits, supplies and oil smuggling. but the militants appear increasingly desperate to strike overseas as they lose territory in iraq and syria. <u+201c>this terror organization, the assailants and all of their connections will be found and they will receive the punishments they deserve,<u+201d> said turkish prime minister ahmet davutoglu. he said the attacker was a member of the islamic state, though the group has not asserted responsibility for the attack. the blast occurred just before 10:30 a.m. in the sultanahmet district, an area that includes the 400-year-old blue mosque; hagia sophia, a former byzantine-era basilica; and the lavish ottoman topkapi palace. the attacker, identified by turkish authorities as a 28-year-old of syrian origin, mingled with a group of german tourists as they gathered near the obelisk of theodosius, an ancient egyptian monolith brought to istanbul <u+2014> then known as constantinople <u+2014> in the 4th century. turkish news outlets later identified the attacker as nabil fadli, adding that he had been born in saudi arabia. eight of those killed were germans, according to authorities. in addition, officials said that at least 15 people were injured in the explosion, including nine germans and other foreigners <u+2014> among them a peruvian and a norwegian. <u+201c>today istanbul was hit. paris has been hit. tunisia has been hit. ankara has been hit before,<u+201d> german chancellor angela merkel said in berlin. <u+201c>international terrorism is once again showing its cruel and inhuman face today.<u+201d> the white house also condemned the <u+201c>heinous attack,<u+201d> which it said <u+201c>struck turks and foreign tourists alike.<u+201d> in a statement tuesday, national security council spokesman ned price said that the united states stands with nato ally turkey, a <u+201c>valued member<u+201d> of the u.s.-led coalition against the islamic state, and pledges <u+201c>our ongoing cooperation and support in the fight against terrorism<u+201d> in the face of the istanbul attack. [nato-member turkey on front lines of western-russian divide over syria] directly and indirectly, tourism makes up about 12 percent of turkey<u+2019>s gross domestic product, according to the world travel and tourism council, an international travel-industry organization, with the country welcoming about 40 million tourists a year. the vast plazas and surrounding streets of sultanahmet, normally busy with merchants, vendors and visitors, were quiet late tuesday, with many restaurants empty. the area immediately around the blast was cordoned off by police. yahya ibrahim, an imam from perth, australia, was visiting with his wife and three children when the blast hit. <u+201c>we were just about to head into the mosque but then decided to have breakfast first,<u+201d> he said. a <u+201c>huge boom<u+201d> reverberated through the streets, he said, which his 9-year-old daughter thought was thunder. ibrahim said that the attack wouldn<u+2019>t deter them from visiting again. <u+201c>on a theological basis, it<u+2019>s a perversion of islam,<u+201d> he said of the islamic state<u+2019>s ideology. <u+201c>on a practical level, it<u+2019>s murder.<u+201d> [pentagon pushes allies to help choke off islamic state networks] the islamic state probably has the capability to launch an extended terror campaign against turkey, said firas abi ali, a senior analyst at ihs, a global risk analysis firm. <u+201c>its territorial losses in iraq and syria may well have led the group to assess its needs to expand its influence and capability in turkey,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>if today<u+2019>s attack was perpetrated by the islamic state, it would reflect a shift in the group<u+2019>s strategy and herald a broader campaign against turkey.<u+201d> however, such a move <u+201c>will likely provoke a significant backlash by the turkish government,<u+201d> he said. turkish forces have not directly intervened in the syrian conflict, but ankara has been under pressure from western governments to crack down on the cross-border flow of people and supplies to islamic state strongholds in syria. last summer, turkey opened its incirlik air base to u.s. warplanes carrying out airstrikes against islamic state positions in syria. turkey is also a key backer of rebel groups opposing syrian president bashar al-assad, and it has recently stepped up its <u+00ad>decades-old fight against kurdish separatists. in the past, turkish groups have staged their own attacks in the country. a year ago, a chechen woman believed to be linked to militant factions blew herself up outside a police post in sultan<u+00ad>ahmet, killing one police officer. there were also two major suicide attacks on peace activists in the country<u+2019>s southeast last year, killing more than 100 people. the government blamed the islamic state for those explosions, but the militant group never asserted responsibility. cunningham reported from baghdad. brian murphy and william branigin in washington contributed to this report.

deadly suicide blast in istanbul tourist area is linked to the islamic state

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last july 4, my family and i went to long island to celebrate the holiday with a friend and her family. after eating some barbecue, a group of us decided to take a walk along the ocean. the mood on the beach that day was festive. music from a nearby party pulsed through the haze of sizzling meat. lovers strolled hand in hand. giggling children chased each other along the boardwalk. most of the foot traffic was heading in one direction, but then two teenage girls came toward us, moving stiffly against the flow, both of them looking nervously to their right. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s got a gun,<u+201d> one of them said in a low voice. i turned my gaze to follow theirs, and was clasping my 4-year-old daughter<u+2019>s hand when a young man extended his arm and fired off multiple shots along the busy street running parallel to the boardwalk. snatching my daughter up into my arms, i joined the throng of screaming revelers running away from the gunfire and toward the water. the shots stopped as quickly as they had started. the man disappeared between some buildings. chest heaving, hands shaking, i tried to calm my crying daughter, while my husband, friends and i all looked at one another in breathless disbelief. i turned to check on hunter, a high school intern from oregon who was staying with my family for a few weeks, but she was on the phone. <u+201c>someone was just shooting on the beach,<u+201d> she said, between gulps of air, to the person on the line. unable to imagine whom she would be calling at that moment, i asked her, somewhat indignantly, if she couldn<u+2019>t have waited until we got to safety before calling her mom. <u+201c>no,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>i am talking to the police.<u+201d> my friends and i locked eyes in stunned silence. between the four adults, we hold six degrees. three of us are journalists. and not one of us had thought to call the police. we had not even considered it. we also are all black. and without realizing it, in that moment, each of us had made a set of calculations, an instantaneous weighing of the pros and cons. as far as we could tell, no one had been hurt. the shooter was long gone, and we had seen the back of him for only a second or two. on the other hand, calling the police posed considerable risks. it carried the very real possibility of inviting disrespect, even physical harm. we had seen witnesses treated like suspects, and knew how quickly black people calling the police for help could wind up cuffed in the back of a squad car. some of us knew of black professionals who<u+2019>d had guns drawn on them for no reason. this was before michael brown. before police killed john crawford iii for carrying a bb gun in a wal-mart or shot down 12-year-old tamir rice in a cleveland park. before akai gurley was killed by an officer while walking in a dark staircase and before eric garner was choked to death upon suspicion of selling <u+201c>loosies.<u+201d> without yet knowing those names, we all could go down a list of unarmed black people killed by law enforcement. we feared what could happen if police came rushing into a group of people who, by virtue of our skin color, might be mistaken for suspects. for those of you reading this who may not be black, or perhaps latino, this is my chance to tell you that a substantial portion of your fellow citizens in the united states of america have little expectation of being treated fairly by the law or receiving justice. it<u+2019>s possible this will come as a surprise to you. but to a very real extent, you have grown up in a different country than i have. as khalil gibran muhammad, author of the condemnation of blackness, puts it, <u+201c>white people, by and large, do not know what it is like to be occupied by a police force. they don<u+2019>t understand it because it is not the type of policing they experience. because they are treated like individuals, they believe that if <u+2018>i am not breaking the law, i will never be abused.<u+2019><u+201d> we are not criminals because we are black. nor are we somehow the only people in america who don<u+2019>t want to live in safe neighborhoods. yet many of us cannot fundamentally trust the people who are charged with keeping us and our communities safe. as protest and revolt swept across the missouri suburb of ferguson and demonstrators staged die-ins and blocked highways and boulevards from oakland to new york with chants of <u+201c>black lives matter,<u+201d> many white americans seemed shocked by the gaping divide between law enforcement and the black communities they are supposed to serve. it was no surprise to us. for black americans, policing is <u+201c>the most enduring aspect of the struggle for civil rights,<u+201d> says muhammad, a historian and director of the schomburg center for research in black culture in new york. <u+201c>it has always been the mechanism for racial surveillance and control.<u+201d> in the south, police once did the dirty work of enforcing the racial caste system. the ku klux klan and law enforcement were often indistinguishable. black-and-white photographs of the era memorialize the way southern police sicced german shepherds on civil rights protesters and peeled the skin off black children with the force of water hoses. lawmen were also involved or implicated in untold numbers of beatings, killings and disappearances of black southerners who forgot their place. in the north, police worked to protect white spaces by containing and controlling the rising black population that had been propelled into the industrial belt during the great migration. it was not unusual for northern police to join white mobs as they attacked black homeowners attempting to move into white neighborhoods, or black workers trying to take jobs reserved for white laborers. and yet they strictly enforced vagrancy laws, catch-alls that gave them wide discretion to stop, question and arrest black citizens at will. much has changed since then. much has not. last fourth of july, in a few short minutes as we adults watched the teenager among us talking to the police, we saw hunter become a little more like us, her faith a little shaken, her place in the world a little less stable. hunter, who is biracial and lives with her white mother in a heavily white area, had not been exposed to the policing many black americans face. she was about to be. on the phone, she could offer only the most generic of suspect descriptions, which apparently made the officer on the other end of the line suspicious. by way of explanation, hunter told the officer she was just 16. the police called her back: once, twice, then three times, asking her for more information. the interactions began to feel menacing. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not from here,<u+201d> hunter said. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve told you everything i know.<u+201d> the fourth time the police called, she looked frightened. her interrogator asked her, <u+201c>are you really trying to be helpful, or were you involved in this?<u+201d> she turned to us, her voice aquiver. <u+201c>are they going to come get me?<u+201d> <u+201c>see,<u+201d> one of us said, trying to lighten the mood. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s why we don<u+2019>t call them.<u+201d> we all laughed, but it was hollow. my friend carla murphy and i have talked about that day several times since then. we<u+2019>ve turned it over in our minds and wondered whether, with the benefit of hindsight, we should have called 911. carla wasn<u+2019>t born in the united states. she came here when she was 9, and back in her native barbados, she didn<u+2019>t give police much thought. that changed when she moved into heavily black jamaica, queens. carla said she constantly saw police, often white, stopping and harassing passersby, almost always black. <u+201c>you see the cops all the time, but they do not speak to you. you see them talking to each other, but the only time you ever see them interact with someone is if they are jacking them up,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>they are making a choice, and it says they don<u+2019>t care about you, it tells you they are not here for your people or people who look like you.<u+201d>

yes, black america fears the police. here<u+2019>s why.

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this is becoming a straight-up rerun of the 1948 campaign against henry wallace. except that clinton is running well to the right of truman and even, in some respects, dewey. it seems as if clinton is campaigning for the vote of my grandpa nat. there<u+2019>s only one problem with this strategy: he<u+2019>s been dead for<u+00a0>nearly a quarter-century. as was true of mccarthyism, it<u+2019>s not really sanders<u+2019> communism or his socialism that has got today<u+2019>s mccarthyites in the democratic party worried; it<u+2019>s actually his liberalism. as this article in the<u+00a0>times makes clear: <u+201c>some third party will say, <u+2018>this is what the first ad of the general election is going to look like,<u+2019><u+201d> said james carville, the longtime clinton adviser, envisioning a commercial savaging mr. sanders for supporting tax increases and single-payer health care. <u+201c>once you get the nomination, they are not going to play nice.<u+201d> a sanders-led ticket generates two sets of fears among clinton supporters: that other democratic candidates could be linked to his staunchly liberal views, particularly his call to raise taxes, even on middle-class families, to help finance his universal health care plan; and that more mainstream democrats would have to answer to voters uneasy about what it means to be a european-style social democrat. raising taxes to pay for popular social<u+00a0>programs: that used to be the bread and butter of the democratic party liberalism. now it<u+2019>s socialism. and that<u+2014>now it<u+2019>s socialism<u+2014>used to be the bread and butter of republican party revanchism. now it<u+2019>s democratic party liberalism. the new line of argument against sanders winning the nomination is that<u+00a0>african american voters are clinton<u+2019>s <u+201c>firewall,<u+201d><u+00a0>which will engulf the sanders campaign once it heads south. there have been god knows how many<u+00a0>articles making this claim over the last two days, celebrating the<u+00a0>clintons<u+2019> deep and storied relations with the black community<u+2014>how, whatever the clintons<u+2019> policy positions (support for mass incarceration, welfare reform, etc.), both hillary and bill<u+00a0>do the kind of retail and symbolic politics that black voters care most about. (i<u+2019>ll note in passing but not comment on the patronizing condescension of this position). and that we<u+2019>ll see all of this come into play after iowa, when the campaign heads to south carolina. it could be true. but first let<u+2019>s go to the wayback machine and see<u+00a0>how black leaders in south carolina responded in 2008 the last time the clintons worked their magic there: speaking of jim clyburn and south carolina, he was on<u+00a0>nbc<u+00a0>recently, talking about clinton<u+2019>s firewall in 2016.<u+00a0>start listening at 2:30, where he says that if sanders wins by ten points in iowa, that firewall could disappear very quickly. as it did in 2008. and lo and behold:<u+00a0>according to a poll released last week, support for clinton in south carolina is plummeting. back in december, clinton had a 36-point lead over sanders. as of last week, that lead has been cut nearly in half. forty-seven percent of democratic voters now favor clinton; 28% favor sanders. that<u+2019>s still a lot of<u+00a0>support<u+00a0>for clinton, but<u+00a0>it<u+2019>s considerably smaller than in<u+00a0>december, when she had 67%<u+00a0>of the vote. now it<u+2019>s true that sanders hasn<u+2019>t gotten those defectors from clinton. what seems to have happened is that a significant chunk of her supporters are reconsidering their support (sanders<u+2019>s support is nearly what it was in december). which could mean many things. one possibility is that voters are waiting to see what happens in iowa and new hampshire, where sanders is doing well. but the most interesting part of the polls is the racial and gender breakdown of the vote: clinton is losing a higher percentage of her black supporters than of her white supporters, and sanders is making greater gains among women than among men. on december 17,<u+00a0>this is how the polls looked<u+00a0>(see the thirteenth page, which is labeled page six): on january 22 (the poll was actually concluded on the 15th),<u+00a0>this is how the polls looked: between december and january, we see major drops in support for clinton among all categories of voters. but<u+00a0>there<u+2019>s a greater drop among black voters (30%) than among white voters<u+00a0>(24% drop). there<u+2019>s also a virtually identical drop among male (36%) and female (34%) voters. sanders<u+2019>s support among black voters remains practically the same as it was in december (he sees a tiny drop among white voters). but more interesting is that while he<u+2019>s made gains<u+00a0>among both male and female voters, the gains among women (28%) are much greater than among men (13%). remember sister souljah? in 1992, bill clinton chose to go after her as a signal to white voters that he and the democrats were no longer<u+00a0>beholden to black voters. it was a signature moment not only for him but also for the democratic party: they weren<u+2019>t going to be the party of quotas, welfare and black people. which makes the claim that sanders is bad<u+2014>and clinton is great<u+2014>on race all the more galling.<u+00a0>have we forgotten everything? well, there<u+2019>s one figure in the united states today who hasn<u+2019>t: sister souljah. back in november, she spoke out against clinton<u+2019>s campaign. 4. a little nutty and a little slutty speaking of forgetting everything: david brock, the man who called anita hill <u+201c>a little bit nutty and a little bit slutty,<u+201d> now says <u+201c>black lives don<u+2019>t matter much to bernie sanders.<u+201d> brock is described here as <u+201c>a top clinton ally<u+201d> who <u+201c>runs several super pacs aiding her candidacy.<u+201d> only in this country could such a charlatan make these sorts of claims and get away with it. as sanders surges in the polls in iowa and new hampshire<u+2014>opening up an<u+00a0>8-point lead in iowa<u+00a0>and a 27-point lead in new hampshire<u+2014>and the pundits and party elites get squirmier and squirmier about his possible victory, i<u+2019>m reminded of this line from brecht: would it not be easier in that case for the<u+00a0>government to dissolve the people and elect another? first they came for the revolution because i was not a revolution. then they came for the parliamentary socialism because i was not a parliamentary socialism. then they came for the third party because i was not a third party. then they came for the democratic wing of the democratic party because i was not a democratic wing of the democratic party. then they came for the green lantern because i was not a green lantern. speaking of german writers, in <u+201c>the german ideology,<u+201d> marx wrote, <u+201c>in all ideology men and their circumstances appear upside-down as in a camera obscura.<u+201d> i was reminded of that quote when i stumbled across this story from the summer. back in july,<u+00a0>while everyone was touting clinton<u+2019>s sensitivity and deftness (and sanders<u+2019> insensitivity and tone-deafness) around issues of mass incarceration and black lives matter, this little tidbit was reported in the intercept. and completely ignored: lobbyists for two major prison companies are serving as top fundraisers for hillary clinton<u+2026>.richard sullivan, of the lobbying firm capitol counsel, is a bundler for the clinton campaign, bringing in $44,859 in contributions in a few short months. sullivan is also a registered lobbyist for the geo group, a company that operates a number of jails, including immigrant detention centers, for profit. as we reported yesterday, fully five clinton bundlers work for the lobbying and law firm akin gump strauss hauer & feld. corrections corporation of america, the largest private prison company in america, paid akin gump $240,000 in lobbying fees last year. the firm also serves as a law firm for the prison giant, representing the company in court<u+2026>.the geo group, in a disclosure statement for its investors, notes that its business could be <u+201c>adversely affected by changes in existing criminal or immigration laws, crime rates in jurisdictions in which we operate, the relaxation of criminal or immigration enforcement efforts, leniency in conviction, sentencing or deportation practices, and the decriminalization of certain activities that are currently proscribed by criminal laws or the loosening of immigration laws.<u+201d> apparently, the new rule of american politics is: so long as you say the right thing, you can do anything. postscript: in october,<u+00a0>clinton was forced to stop working with these clowns from the prison industrial complex. and return all the money. sanders never had to return a dime. because he never took a dime. sanders has gotten a lot of heat from the left for saying he<u+2019>s against reparations. it<u+2019>s a complicated issue, the substance of which i don<u+2019>t want to comment on here. instead i<u+2019>ll just note that<u+00a0>in 2008 another presidential candidate was asked about his position on reparations. here<u+2019>s what he had to say: democratic presidential candidate barack obama<u+00a0>opposes offering reparations to the descendants of slaves, putting him at odds with some black groups and leaders.the man with a serious chance to become the nation<u+2019>s first black president argues that government should instead combat the legacy of slavery by improving schools, health care and the economy for all. <u+201c>i have said in the past <u+2014> and i<u+2019>ll repeat again <u+2014> that the best reparations we can provide are good schools in the inner city and jobs for people who are unemployed,<u+201d> the illinois<u+00a0>democrat said recently. <u+201c>let<u+2019>s not be naive. sen. obama is running for president of the united states, and so he is in a constant battle to save his political life,<u+201d> said kibibi tyehimba, co-chair of thenational coalition of blacks for reparations in america. <u+201c>in light of the demographics of this country, i don<u+2019>t think it<u+2019>s realistic to expect him to do anything other than what he<u+2019>s done.<u+201d> but this is not a position obama adopted just for the presidential campaign. he voiced the same concerns about reparations during his successful run for the senate in 2004. i pointed this out on twitter to killer mike, the rapper who<u+2019>s supporting sanders. he retweeted me, which may be just about the biggest endorsement on twitter i<u+2019>ve ever gotten. except for that time morgan fairchild retweeted me. and that time john cusack retweeted me. but who<u+2019>s counting? after human rights campaign and planned parenthood endorsed clinton, sanders<u+00a0>said they were part of <u+201c>the establishment.<u+201d> clinton and her supporters made a big to-do of it. but this response from garance franke-ruta was the most sublime: bernie remarks a reminder how left economics & new social movements<u+2014>civil rights, women<u+2019>s rights, gay rights<u+2014>have always been uneasy allies no, not really. back in 1985, that old dinosaur of a socialist bernie sanders was signing a gay pride day proclamation on the grounds that gay rights were civil rights. back in the 1990s, while the clintons<u+00a0>were supporting doma and <u+201c>don<u+2019>t ask, don<u+2019>t tell,<u+201d> that old dinosaur of a socialist helped lead the opposition to<u+00a0>both<u+00a0>policies on the grounds that they were anti-gay. and throughout his career in the senate, sanders got consistently higher ratings from civil rights organizations than clinton did while she was a senator. the only thing this whole episode is a reminder of is how poorly journalists do their job. speaking of the establishment, clinton is now claiming that it<u+2019>s sanders who<u+2019>s the establishment, while she is, i don<u+2019>t know what. whatever she calls herself, i wonder what she calls this: you<u+2019>ll be hearing a lot in the coming weeks about what a political savant hillary clinton is<u+2014>and what a political naif bernie sanders is. you already have.<u+00a0>on sunday or monday, i counted<u+00a0>five such articles alone. here<u+2019>s some information to consider when you hear that kind of talk: even though the clinton team has sought to convey that it has built a national operation, the campaign has invested much of its resources in the feb. 1 caucuses in iowa, hoping that a victory there could marginalize mr. sanders and set mrs. clinton on the path to the nomination. as much as 90 percent of the campaign<u+2019>s resources are now split between iowa and the brooklyn headquarters, according to an estimate provided by a person with direct knowledge of the spending. the campaign denied that figure. the campaign boasted last june, when mrs. clinton held her kickoff event on roosevelt island in new york, that it had at least one paid staff member in all 50 states. but the effort did not last, and the staff members were soon let go or reassigned<u+2026>.for all its institutional advantages, the clinton campaign lags behind the sanders operation in deploying paid staff members: for example, mr. sanders has campaign workers installed in all 11 of the states that vote on super tuesday. mrs. clinton does not. even bill clinton is questioning the strategic wisdom of the clinton campaign: bill clinton is getting nervous.with polls showing bernie sanders ahead in new hampshire and barely behind, if at all, in iowa, the former president is urging his wife to start looking toward the delegate-rich march primaries <u+2014> a shift for an organizing strategy that<u+2019>s been laser-focused on the early states. bill clinton, according to a source with firsthand knowledge of the situation, has been phoning campaign manager robby mook almost daily to express concerns about the campaign<u+2019>s organization in the march voting states, which includes delegate bonanzas in florida, illinois, ohio and texas. many clinton allies share the president<u+2019>s desire for more organization on the ground; they see enthusiasm that<u+2019>s ready to be channeled, but no channel yet in place. <u+201c>iowa matters a ton, but it seems to be the campaign<u+2019>s only focus,<u+201d> said one person close to the campaign<u+2019>s operations in a march state <u+2014> one of nearly a dozen clinton allies with whom politico<u+00a0>spoke for this article. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to be a long primary, and the campaign seems less prepared for it than they were in 2008.<u+201d> 11. we are all socialists now from the great state of iowa: little noticed in this week<u+2019>s des moines register-bloomberg politics iowa poll was this finding: a remarkable 43 percent of likely democratic caucus participants describe themselves as socialists, including 58 percent of sanders<u+2019>s supporters and about a third of clinton<u+2019>s. senator bernie sanders<u+2019>s speech on thursday explaining his democratic socialist ideology carried little risk among supporters and other democrats: a solid majority of them have a positive impression of socialism, according to a<u+00a0>new york times/cbs news poll released this month. fifty-six percent of those democratic primary voters questioned said they felt positive about socialism as a governing philosophy, versus 29 percent who took a negative view. another pundit trope<u+00a0>is that sanders is not popular among women. there is a gender gap in this primary, in fact, but it<u+2019>s not only the one you may have heard about. according to the latest<u+00a0>usa today<u+00a0>poll: there is a gender gap as well <u+2014> and not the one that favors clinton among baby boomer women. men under 35<u+00a0>support sanders by 4 percentage points. women back him<u+00a0>by almost 20 points. the possibility of breaking new ground by electing the first female president apparently carries less persuasive power among younger women than their mothers<u+2019> generation.stone is ready to support clinton, though she prefers sanders. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s actually talking about breaking up the big banks and helping income inequality,<u+201d> she says, <u+201c>and given that i<u+2019>m currently unemployed, income inequality is pretty important.<u+201d> a fact that<u+00a0>apparently has caught the clinton campaign completely off-guard: mrs. clinton and her team say they always anticipated the race would tighten, with campaign manager robby mook telling colleagues last spring that mr. sanders would be tough competition. yet they were not prepared for mr. sanders to become so popular with young people and independents, especially women, whom mrs. clinton views as a key part of her base. chelsea clinton, who lives in a gramercy park apartment that she and her husband bought three years ago for $10.5 million, says: i was curious if i could care about (money) on some fundamental level, and i couldn<u+2019>t. reminds me of that old joke: one fish asks another, <u+201c>how<u+2019>s the water?<u+201d> the other replies, <u+201c>what the hell is water?<u+201d> 14. the immense and shitty hassle of everyday life under capitalism<u+2026> arin dube<u+00a0>launched an interesting discussion on his facebook page the other day. riffing off of a bunch of paul krugman<u+2019>s posts, which are fairly critical of sanders<u+2019> healthcare plans, arin<u+00a0>wondered<u+00a0>whether sanders<u+2019> focus on single-payer, after all the drama and struggle over obamacare and its achievements in terms of extended coverage, really makes political sense. there are excellent arguments on all sides, and arin<u+2019>s voice is always one that i listen to. but i posted this comment on his page because i have this nagging feeling that a lot of the discussion around healthcare and insurance in the media is missing a critical reality. i<u+2019>m posting it less as a definitive statement and more as an opening to see if my own intuitions and experiences track with those of others. i recognize that i really could be an outlier here, so feel free to tell me that i am. i just find it hard to believe that my experience of this system is so completely sui generis. anyway, here<u+2019>s an edited version of what i said: can i speak to this less from the policy or political perspective or more from the individual perspective, as a way of getting to the political perspective?my family has insurance: i get mine from cuny and my wife and daughter get theirs from my wife<u+2019>s employer. from what i can gather, we have decent insurance. yet when i think about the mountains of time i have to spend dealing with health care and insurance<u+2014>the submission of forms, the resubmission of forms, haggling with the insurance companies to make sure things that should be covered are covered (or simply to make sure that forms are being processed at all), getting the doctor to revise forms b/c the diagnostic or procedure codes may not be correct or may have changed (which they do with alarming frequency, it seems)<u+2014>and the consistent surprises i experience about how much we still have to pay<u+2014>after the deductibles, the premiums, the co-pays, the out-of-networks are accounted for<u+2014>before we even get reimbursed, i can<u+2019>t quite believe the statements that are out there about how there<u+2019>s just not a constituency for further reform. again, we have pretty good insurance. we are pretty healthy and don<u+2019>t have out-of-the-ordinary needs. we are comparatively well off and highly educated. yet there<u+2019>s an inordinate hassle of time, and in the end a lot of costs we have to absorb ourselves (and a tremendous amount of confusion, despite my phd, about how those costs get calculated and distributed), which i find maddening (and expensive!) am i just that sui generis? or is it that the academic and media discourse is so focused on a certain kind of aggregate data that it ignores that there are huge costs that are being shouldered by individuals<u+2014>and that if there were political leadership that could really speak to those costs, there might be more of a constituency than we realize? what i take sanders to be doing is making these individual costs a public or political problem; what i see mostly happening in the discussion is a shuffling off of those costs onto the individual so that they simply disappear from the political calculus. it<u+2019>s a classic issue of politics: one side (a very small side, it seems) wants to make what is personal and individual into something public and political, while another side<u+2014> including, it seems, a lot of reformers<u+2014>tends to escort those personal and individual experiences off into the shadows. what i<u+2019>m saying here doesn<u+2019>t confront, i recognize, the reality of the institutional intransigence of those who are opposed to reform. that<u+2019>s a separate issue. but when i hear that obamacare has solved this problem for 90% of the population, and i think that my family is up there in the relatively well off sector of that population yet experiences significant costs and burdens that we find very hard to shoulder and understand<u+2014>well, i just wonder if we<u+2019>re really seeing this reality whole. i was building here on an old theme of mine: the immense and shitty hassle of everyday life that is life in contemporary capitalism. i wrote about that in<u+00a0>jacobin a few years ago. in the neoliberal utopia, all of us are forced to spend an inordinate amount of time keeping track of each and every facet of our economic lives<u+2026>.we saw a version of it during the debate on obama<u+2019>s healthcare plan. i distinctly remember, though now i can<u+2019>t find it, one of those healthcare whiz kids <u+2014> maybe it was ezra klein <u+2014> tittering on about the nifty economics and cool visuals of obama<u+2019>s plan: how you could go to the web, check out the exchange, compare this little interstice of one plan with that little interstice of another, and how great it all was because it was just so fucking complicated. i thought to myself: you<u+2019>re either very young or an academic. and since i<u+2019>m an academic, and could only experience vertigo upon looking at all those blasted graphs and charts, i decided whoever it was, was very young. only someone in their twenties <u+2014> whipsmart enough to master an inordinately complicated law without having to make real use of it <u+2014> could look up at that everest of words and numbers and say: yes! there<u+2019>s freedom! this has nothing to do with the election, but what the hell? i did manage, when i wasn<u+2019>t<u+00a0>tearing my hair out or having an aneurism over the campaign commentary, to read a lot of<u+00a0>clarence thomas and secondary work on commercial speech. and it struck me in reading all this material that citizens united and campaign finance law may be a massive sideshow to the real drama around money/speech that<u+2019>s occurring in conservative jurisprudential circles. conservatives<u+00a0>aim, it seems, to use the first amendment<u+00a0>to strike down entire economic regulatory regimes at the state and federal levels. on the grounds that so much of commercial life is a mode of speech, which should be protected like other modes of speech. in one instance they struck down a licensing law in d.c. that required tour guides to be registered with the city: violation of free speech. thomas is at the center of this, and it<u+2019>s really unclear how far the conservatives on the court will be willing to go. it raises some fascinating questions because the connection between money and speech<u+2014>as i<u+2019>m discovering in this excellent dissertation i<u+2019>ve been reading<u+2014>is an old and surprisingly complicated one in political theory, in which aristotle and locke play critical roles. (locke<u+2019>s pamphlet against the devaluation of the pound may have been, according to this author, the single most influential writing he did up until the 19th century.) anyway, lots going on in this arena, which we should all be paying more attention to. there<u+2019>s a lot of fretting<u+2014>both well meaning and cynical<u+2014>out there about whether sanders can win. here<u+2019>s the deal, people. for the last decade and a half, we<u+2019>ve been treated to lecture after lecture from on high about how if you want things to change, you have to build from below. well, that process has been going on for some time. unlike purists of the left and purists of the center (who are the most insufferable purists of all, precisely because they think they<u+2019>re not), i look at the various fits and starts of the last 15 years<u+2014>from seattle to the nader campaign to the iraq war protests to the dean campaign to the obama campaign to occupy to the various student debt campaigns to black lives matter<u+2014>as part of a continuum, where men and women, young and old, slowly relearn the art of politics. whose first rule is: if you want x, shoot for 1,000x, and whose second rule is: it<u+2019>s not whether you fail (you probably will), but how you fail, whether you and your comrades are still there afterward to pick up the pieces and learn from your mistakes. though i<u+2019>ve not been involved in all these efforts, i know from the ones that i have been involved in that people are learning these rules. but at some point, you have to put that knowledge to the test. now the sanders campaign is putting it to the test. is it too soon? maybe, probably, i have no idea. none of us does. but you can<u+2019>t possibly think we got anything decent in this country without men and women before us taking these<u+2014>and far greater<u+2014>risks, taking these<u+2014>and far greater<u+2014>gambles. sometimes i think americans fear failure in politics not for the obvious and well grounded reasons but because they are, well, americans, that is, men and women who live in a capitalist civilization where success is a religious duty and failure a sin, where thou shalt succeed is the first commandment, and thou shalt not fail the tenth. is it not the right time for the sanders campaign? the republicans control the congress, sanders might lose to trump or whomever, we don<u+2019>t have the organizational forces in place yet? well, re the first two concerns, when will that not be the case? as for the third, well, that<u+2019>s a very real concern to me. but we won<u+2019>t know in the abstract or on paper; we have to see it in action to know. right now, the voters of iowa and new hampshire are telling the pundits and fetters: we are reality, deny us at your own peril. (i<u+2019>m fantasizing a campaign where sanders racks up more and more victories, and the pundits get more and more hysterical: he can<u+2019>t win, he can<u+2019>t win!) maybe the<u+00a0>putative realists<u+2014>for whom reality seems to be more of a fetish or magical incantation<u+2014>ought to listen to them. oh, and did i mention that i got retweeted by killer mike?

this is a dishonest campaign: 17 hillary clinton memes the media just won<u+2019>t stop pushing <u+2014> or factcheck

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how candidates announce can say a lot about their campaigns now that democrat hillary clinton has officially launched her presidential campaign, the 2016 race for the white house is underway. the gop got its third entrant in what is shaping up to be a crowded field when florida sen. marco rubio announced his bid monday. how and where a candidate chooses to roll out a campaign can say a lot about the type of race he or she intends to run, at least in the early going. rubio announced from his hometown of miami at the freedom tower. this is not by coincidence. rubio, a relative newcomer to national politics, will use this locale to underscore his biography as a son of cuban immigrants who represents the new face of the gop. on monday, freedom tower was described by morning edition's renee montagne as "kind of statue of liberty for cuban-americans." the site was used as a processing center for cubans fleeing the castro regime in the 1960s. contrast rubio's rollout with clinton's foray into the 2016 race over the weekend. she used a highly produced video in which she proclaims, "i'm running for president." no need for a tv-ready backdrop for her announcement; she's been a household name for some 20 years. her biggest hurdles are relatability and showing her democratic base she's not taking anything for granted <u+2014> ready to roll up her sleeves to earn the party's nomination. the first time you actually see clinton comes more than 90 seconds into the video and after brief testimonials, including from a gay couple talking about their upcoming wedding, a black heterosexual couple preparing for the arrival of a newborn and a latino mother moving to a new home so her soon-to-be kindergarten-age daughter can attend a better school. viewers see clinton, who has been in a protective secret service bubble for two decades, interacting with ordinary americans, a nod to the stripped-down, retail politicking campaign she plans to kick off in iowa starting tuesday. as npr's domenico montanaro pointed out over the weekend, clinton's video isn't terribly different from 2007 when she launched a web-only video in which she said, "let the conversation begin." back then, she had stiff competition in then-sen. barack obama, who announced his candidacy in springfield, ill., on the grounds of the old state capitol <u+2014> the same place where in 1858 abraham lincoln delivered his "house divided" speech. mitt romney, the 2012 republican nominee, like clinton now, was making his second run for the white house. the former governor of massachusetts opted to announce his first run in 2007 from the henry ford museum in dearborn, mich. he did so to highlight his ties to the state. his father was governor there and the senior romney also ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 1968. in an effort to counter the criticism that his wealth made him out of touch, romney switched gears and went for a stripped-down approach in 2011. he announced on a farm in new hampshire in an effort to cultivate support from voters in that early-voting state. the two other announced 2016 candidates, republican sens. rand paul of kentucky and ted cruz of texas, also announced in two different types of places. one represents "home"; the other, the type of constituency the candidate would like to woo. paul announced in louisville, ky., a liberal-leaning city within his republican-leaning state. npr's don gonyea, who covered the rollout, said the libertarian-leaning conservative is running as a "nontraditional republican" who is trying to broaden the gop's appeal beyond its traditional base. paul, whose father, ron, is a congressman from texas, grew up in the lone star state. he attended baylor university in texas before going to duke medical school in north carolina. but afterward, paul and his wife moved to kentucky, where they started their family. on the other hand, cruz chose liberty university. he has no ties to the college, a southern baptist institution founded by jerry falwell. he went to school at princeton and harvard and grew up in texas. but the backdrop is a beacon for any candidate interested in coalescing support among evangelicals or born-again christians. and that's key in early states like iowa and south carolina, where more than half of republican voters identify as white evangelical or born-again christians.

how candidates announce can say a lot about their campaigns

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(cnn) cnn opinion asked a range of contributors for their take on the cnn debate of republican presidential candidates. who were the winners and losers? the opinions expressed in these commentaries are theirs. the republican race for president just got a lot more serious. at the second republican presidential debate, there was minimal name-calling and personal insults by donald trump, and all of the candidates not named donald trump rushed into the void, taking advantage of an opportunity to make a good impression -- succeeding more often than not. the clearest winner of the debate was carly fiorina, who successfully challenged trump -- criticizing his wisecracks about her personal appearance and challenging his credentials as a global businessman by deftly ticking off hotspots around the world and suggesting ways she would tackle them. but other candidates took turns at laying out specific plans and contrasting their ideas with those of their rivals. sen. rand paul, a libertarian, took issue with jeb bush's vow to crack down on recreational marijuana, and chris christie jumped into the conversation to warn about the dangers of marijuana use leading to abuse of harder drugs -- a point underscored by fiorina, who talked about the death of her stepdaughter, who was a drug user. the big news in all of this was that the field of candidates weren't dancing to trump's tune. instead, they talked in a serious way about serious issues, and for considerable swaths of the debate it was possible to forget trump was onstage at all: marco rubio and christie went back and forth on climate change, and ted cruz debated bush over the process and criteria for naming supreme court justices. ben carson argued for a two-tier minimum wage. it remains true that a large percentage of the republican voting base is disgusted by politicians and convinced that a brash straight-talker like trump might fix this. but the debate served as a reminder that trump's 30% support also means that 70% of republican voters are looking for a different candidate to support. the debate proved they have plenty of viable choices. to be taken half as seriously as a man, goes an old adage, a woman must be twice as good. her male rivals ought to be taking carly fiorina a lot more seriously than that today because she was better -- a lot better -- than most of them in the cnn debate. she came prepared with crisp, coherent responses to nearly every issue raised and delivered two of the best monologues of the night -- one when she spoke movingly about burying a child lost to drug addiction, the other about empowering every woman to realize her aspirations. she also put down donald trump on his slur about her face; he lamely praised her looks when, instead, he should have apologized. trump seemed tight at the start, needlessly picking fights, but he got his bearings halfway through and finished upbeat. i doubt he will pay much of a price for his early bombast but he may well see fiorina, more than ben carson, soon nipping at his heels. a debate that seemed long did have one major virtue: it allowed other candidates far more openings to distinguish themselves. marco rubio and chris christie took the most advantage: both were much more effective than in the first debate. the race itself, like the debate, is likely to seesaw back and forth for many weeks to come. david gergen is a senior political analyst for cnn and has been a white house adviser to four presidents. a graduate of harvard law school, he is a professor of public service and co-director of the center for public leadership at the harvard kennedy school. carly fiorina won on style and substance. unlike marco rubio, who dominated the few times he spoke, fiorina made sure she had more than a few bites at the mic. unlike jeb bush, who could only politely respond to donald trump's insults, while still losing most of the exchanges, fiorina proved to be the only candidate who could effectively push back on trump and his substance-free assertions. her perfectly calibrated and classy response to his insult of her face was an instant classic destined to dominate debate highlight reels. now trump is calling carly fiorina a "wonderful person" and "beautiful." that's the trump-english definition for "apology. " that's fiorina-english for "a win." fiorina handled the attacks on her business record deftly and then attacked trump's habit of hanging creditors out to dry in the wake of his bankruptcies. for a gop generally in trouble with women, she's the only candidate that could get away with calling the move to change the face on the $20 bill a pander. and she's right. we should know our history and make new history -- today -- by considering carly fiorina the breakout top tier candidate of round 2. margaret hoover is the president of the right-leaning advocacy group american unity fund, and author of "american individualism: how a new generation of conservatives can save the republican party." she is the host of siriusxm's "get it right with margaret hoover." trump came out swinging -- but ended up missing. not only wasn't he substantive -- again -- but he made some pretty bizarre statements. he thinks a flat tax is more complicated than a regressive tax. he said that vaccines cause autism. he wants syria and isis to fight each other. he will get along with putin. this stuff doesn't hold up to scrutiny. the question is whether any is ever applied to trump. ben carson also suffered some serious stumbles that will likely hurt him, namely the bizarre suggestion that a "bully pulpit" would have been a better response to 9/11 than fighting terrorists. saying that americans aren't willing to perform agriculture jobs, that our air force isn't "capable" and our marines aren't "ready," is pretty irresponsible stuff. i think carly fiorina, on the other hand, managed to beat already high expectations. she was sharp, quick on her feet and delivered more than one great applause line. particularly effective was her emotional plea to defund planned parenthood. and she used every opportunity to get as granular and specific on policy as she could. i expect her poll numbers to rise. s.e. cupp is the author of "losing our religion: the liberal media's attack on christianity," co-author of "why you're wrong about the right" and a columnist at the new york daily news. no big themes, no clear sense of vision emerged from the three hours of jawing in tonight's debate. such are the downsides, i suppose, of putting 11 candidates on a stage and divvying up 1-minute slots for each candidate to make a mark. so we saw flashes of christie the populist, fiorina the trump slayer, kasich the sunny multilateralist, trump the bombast, rand the constitutionalist, carson the logician. but their claims didn't add up to much that was especially comprehensible, certainly not memorable. to be sure, there were moments -- the best, perhaps, being fiorina telling trump that women across america know exactly what he meant when he insulted her looks. rubio gave another strong performance, though it remains unclear whether he can capitalize on these performances on the campaign trail. huckabee and walker, by contrast, couldn't seem to nudge the conversation much at all. my wish for the next debate on october 28? we narrow down the list, dig a little deeper and force the candidates to say something serious about the confluence of urban challenges associated with class, race and drug enforcement that, just now, only rand paul seems willing to discuss. biggest winner: george w. bush, long forgotten, who was invoked as the man who kept america safe -- a claim that received the loudest applause of the night. biggest disappointment: once again, no serious or sustained discussion of issues involving race, poverty, and violence in american cities. these were barely recognized last go around. they weren't so much as mentioned tonight. william howell is the sydney stein professor in american politics at the university of chicago. carly fiorina was the big winner tonight. she is the only candidate to date to take on trump and come out a winner. she was polished, showed policy depth and has the outsider bio that is so in vogue this year. fiorina now has more momentum than any republican candidate not named trump has had in this campaign. rubio was also very sharp tonight, but he seems unable to have the sorts of moments that get shared online and talked out around the dinner table, which is why he went down not up in the polls after a similarly solid performance in the last debate. jeb bush was markedly better than the last debate (which is like being the tallest of the seven dwarves), but his most memorable moment was passionately defending his brother whose legacy is an albatross around his neck. ultimately, the eventual democratic nominee was the biggest winner, because the republican's continue to unlearn all the lessons of 2012 by taking far right positions on immigration, women's health, and climate change dan pfeiffer is a former senior adviser to president barack obama and served in the white house in a variety of roles, including communications director. at nearly three hours, this was a debate for the true political junkies. to me, the most resonant memory was that of the various republican presidential candidates, on and off the camera, crying "jake! jake!" to moderator jake tapper, signaling their desire to jump into the discussion. ironically for a debate that took place at the ronald reagan library, the 2016 hopefuls showed that they differ in style from our 40th president. reagan was known for his sunny disposition. he was a genial man who did not hurl insults at his rivals. he appealed to americans' best selves with his innate optimism. by contrast, the republicans on the stage tonight presented a gloomy vision of our nation, and at time acted peevish and petulant with one another -- a far cry from the courtly reagan. yet for all the attacks on each other, the candidates also missed opportunities to call each other out. nobody pointed out that, for much of her adult life, carly fiorina did not bother to vote at all. nobody mentioned that, under sen. marco rubio's proposed overhaul of our immigration policies, people like his working class parents would not have been allowed in the country. nobody asked mike huckabee about the religious liberties of american muslims or mormons. the immigration portion of the debate, meanwhile, was a disappointment. the immigration proposal that merited the most discussion was donald trump's impractical, inhumane plan for mass deportations. it was disheartening to see legitimate questions about immigration reform devolve into sniping about speaking spanish, birthright citizenship and -- of course -- border security. any serious consideration of what to do with the estimated 11 million undocumented people already here was missing -- as was any mention of the fact that conservative icon reagan signed the immigration and control act of 1986, which allowed nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants to get amnesty after entering the country illegally. equally troubling was the fact that the "black lives matter" movement -- one of the most powerful social justice movements of our time -- did not merit any discussion. the winner tonight? that would be fiorina. she faced up to personal and professional attacks with aplomb. her experience in corporate america has clearly given her the skills necessary for making a strong presentation. not at all hesitant about asserting herself, she proved that she belonged on the big stage tonight. the loser tonight was wisconsin gov. scott walker. he has been fading in the polls lately, and this was his chance to show potential supporters and donors that he is still a major player. instead, between trump's bravado and the occasional flourishes of the other candidates -- rubio on foreign policy, fiorina on her business record -- walker seemed to get lost in the shuffle. unlike nearly every other candidate, walker did not have one strong "moment." like most, i thought carly fiorina was tonight's big winner. i think her strongest moment had nothing to do with donald trump. the weak field helped. trump kicked jeb bush around like a failed prospect on "the apprentice." bush's biggest applause line was defending his brother, which i'm sure the hillary clinton campaign loved. nearly all rushed to promise magical toughness fixes to the middle east and more deportations, while failing to mention the economy until it was an excuse not to act on climate change. fiorina reminds me of a more human mitt romney. she is a polished and poised debater. the question is whether her business track record of mass layoffs comes back to haunt her, as it did romney. but on wednesday tonight, she combined personal stories with policy specifics better than anyone else on the stage. asked about drug policy reform, she gave a heartbreaking account of the loss of a child that moved every watching parent of all parties -- and then transitioned seamlessly into a conservative case for reforming our criminal justice system. that answer was all the more impressive because it came in the midst of a number of strong responses that showed the broad consensus on scaling back our system of mass incarceration. kudos to cnn's jake tapper for posing a question that moved us past trump's noisy racism, and provoked bush's apology to his mom, fiorina's tearjerker and a healthy dose of substance. julian zelizer: rivals figure out how to undercut trump in the first half of the debate, donald trump succeeded in his basic campaign strategy: make the entire contest about him. when most people were watching, trump was continually a focal point of the discussion. early, on he launched a series of ad hominem attacks, like telling rand paul he shouldn't even be on the stage and making quips about his looks. this has been his strategy since entering the race -- constantly attack and constantly be attacked. either way, the result is that trump is the story. in an age of media-driven politics, where video clips and quick sound bites are the currency of choice, he advances his cause. during the first two hours, the moderators often used trump's statements (on immigration or on fiorina's business record for example) as the basis of their questions to other candidates. very often the split screen would show answers by someone like christie, with the other half of the screen still on trump whether or not this was relevant. but during the last hour of the debate, when fewer people were watching, his opponents started to show that the best way to undercut is to talk about issues. besides all the blows trump suffered, including the basic message that he is an entertainer rather than a leader, the camera was no longer focused on him. many of the candidates had their moments. carly fiorina scored points with conservatives when she talked about defunding planned parenthood, as well as her call for policies to help women in the workplace. her overall performance, including her retort to trump's comments about her appearance, won applause. sen. marco rubio offered emotional answers to the questions about immigration and showed his chops on foreign policy. sen. ted cruz got in a few criticisms of the supreme court, while john kasich boasted of his deep experience and ability to move to the center. wisconsin gov. scott walker touted the record of his administration, while new jersey gov. chris christie finally had a chance to talk about issues other than scandalous bridges, including economic growth and law and order. his performance gave a boost to a dying candidacy. paul discussed drugs and criminal justice as well as the need to limit american involvement overseas. ben carson spoke about vaccine policies and defending free markets and wealth. jeb bush had a chance to defend his brother's policies after 9/11, connecting his statements to how he would address terrorism. whenever foreign policy came up, trump almost seemed to duck down behind his lectern. just as important, all of the candidates started to make tougher statements about former secretary of state hillary clinton, remembering that ultimately she would be the main target of the gop. "who will prosecute hillary clinton?" asked christie. while this debate probably won't knock trump off from his pedestal, it offers a road map to his opponents about how to undercut his success. shifting to issues and shifting to policies -- not allowing him to shape the entire conversation -- is the best way to trump trump. winner: anyone but trump, although trump was not a clear loser. maria cardona: rivals knew it was make or break tonight's debate finally started to break the trump fever! the other gop candidates found their inner adults, stood up to trump -- somewhat -- and importantly, demonstrated their command and experience on policy details and their more realistic solutions to the country's problems. while they are all wrong on the issues -- their immigration divisiveness and their focus on defunding planned parenthood to the point of forcing a government shutdown are dangerous territory and weaken the party's general election viability -- it was clear they all knew how much was riding on their performances. carly fiorina was masterful throughout the debate. she was adroit, witty and showed she would not back down, but did so in a very graceful way. she also schooled donald trump and many of the others on foreign policy and other issues. she played and looked the part. marco rubio shone brightly when discussing foreign policy, and his and fiorina's command of subject matter was a stark contrast with trump, who was completely absent from the discussion. jeb bush did a much better job this time around, but still lost tonight. he is such a cringe-worthy, awkward candidate. and while he went toe to toe with trump at times (and had a good, funny line towards the end when asked what secret service code name he would choose -- eveready, he said looking at trump, because it's "high energy" ), he looked uncomfortable in his own skin every time he tried to defend himself or get tough with trump. will this be the beginning of the dimming of trump, who up until now had gotten away with myths, bluster, distortions and outright lies in the place of facts, solutions, pragmatic approaches, respect and grace? still early to say, but at least the candidates scored some important points against trump and used the opportunity to let voters get to know them better. the biggest winner from thursday night's cnn republican presidential candidate debate: carly fiorina. not only did she speak with expertise and fluency on policy, but fiorina added some emotional inflection and personal touches to connect with the voters. most importantly of all-- she managed to be the first candidate to go toe-to-toe with trump on stage and come out the clear victor. fiorina was joined by several other candidates with standout performances. sen. marco rubio (who if not the eventual president, might make a great secretary of state) came off as polished on stage and wonky on policy. the same was true for sen. ted cruz, who burnished his constitutionalist credentials at every opportunity and focused his fire on president barack obama's administration rather than his fellow gop candidates. gov. chris christie, for his part, also turned in a solid performance, as he managed to pull off both bravado and charm -- even managing to sound earnestly conservative a few times. the biggest loser tonight? donald trump, not only because he clearly didn't win, but he even failed to be the center of attention beyond the opening minutes of the debate. trump is, of course, style over substance, but even his style faltered tonight. and while he had a few entertaining, humorous moments, trump also had some head-shaking blunders. his non-apology to fiorina, where he called her "beautiful," crashed and burned -- you could almost hear the groans across america. others in the "not good enough" category were: sen. rand paul, gov. scott walker and gov. john kasich, all of of whom may be following gov. rick perry's lead in exiting the race much sooner than they anticipated. surprisingly, this was not episode no. 2 of the "trump and friends" reality show that many expected (and frankly some hoped for from an entertainment point of view.) this was much more of a substantive debate, in part because the candidates refused to fight with each other or the moderators -- with a few exceptions, i.e., donald trump versus rand paul. this allowed the debate to reveal a contrast between the candidates who were pandering, offering conservative gop primary voters red meat on issues, and those candidates who were being realistic and responsible, such as on issues like immigration and the iran nuclear deal. for example, jake tapper challenged donald trump (using a quote of ben carson) about his plan to deport the 11 million plus undocumented immigrants as being unworkable. we heard ted cruz boast that he would tear up the iran deal if elected president. but trump and ohio gov. john kasich focused on enforcing the agreement. and carly fiorina called out trump's proposal to end birthright citizenship as being wholly impracticable because it would require amending the 14th amendment. the race is now moving from the reality show mode to one of substance, which might be a little less exciting, but better for voters in assessing the candidates. once again, carly fiorina stole the show. her comfort level on stage, command of the issues and her ability to deliver razor sharp responses, cut down donald trump with the precision of a political scalpel. fiornia accomplished something no other candidate on that stage was yet to do: she made donald trump and his egomaniacal, larger than life candidacy look small. while trump engaged in his typical nonsequitur, ad hominem attacks, fiorina came across thoughtful, prepared and tough on issues both foreign and domestic. when jake tapper asked fiorina to respond to trump's insult of her face during a rolling stone interview, and his attempt to walk it back by claiming that he meant her persona not her looks, she simply said to thunderous applause, "i think women all over this country heard very clearly what mr. trump said." at that point, trump pulled up lame. he responded, "i think she has a beautiful face. she's a beautiful woman," which was met with crickets and collective incredulity from the audience. it was one of the most memorable exchanges of the night. it felt as though trump showed up prepared for a comedy central roast, not a debate to help decide the next leader of the free world. another standout moment came during a discussion on defunding planned parenthood over its fetal organ harvesting controversy when fiorina looked into the camera and challenged president obama and hillary clinton to "watch these tapes. ... watch a fully formed fetus on the table, its heart beating, its legs kicking while someone says we have to keep it alive to harvest its brain. ... this is about the character of our nation, and if we will not stand up and force president obama to veto this bill, shame on us." a man sitting next to me said, "i just got goose bumps." as did i. both carly fiorina and sen. marco rubio, who in his own right had another very strong night, especially on foreign policy matters, came across as the adults in the room and delivered powerful performances on issues that resonate with the american people. we'll see if that's reflected in the polls moving forward. tara setmayer is former communication's director for rep. dana rohrabacher, r-california, and a cnn political commentator.

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farms that once generated wealth for entire communities are now creating a new class of superfarms, which are concentrating wealth and income at the top. peanut farmer gary dawson fills a water tank just outside hawkinsville, ga. dawson has reduced his permanent crew of workers from dozens in the 1970s to about nine today the rows of low-slung plants under the hot georgia sun are deceptive: it<u+2019>s what grows underground that counts. <u+201c>i love this dirt more than anything <u+2013> except my son,<u+201d> says farmhand franklin <u+201c>spanky<u+201d> laidler, jumping off his red tractor onto a field where peanuts burrow in the ground. for many, that love of this sandy southern soil is more than just a way of life, it<u+2019>s a wealth generator. mr. laidler says he works so much that if he was paid hourly instead of salaried, <u+201c>i<u+2019>d be a millionaire.<u+201d> instead, it<u+2019>s his boss who has grown wealthy on these 9,000 acres. <u+201c>he could quit farming now and he<u+2019>d have nothing to worry about.<u+201d> a different harvest takes place at the pulaski county dump, just outside hawkinsville. at night, men with headlamps, like monster fireflies, pick through the day<u+2019>s detritus looking for valuable scraps to sell. these are two pictures of income inequality in rural america. the widening gulf between the haves and have nots is not limited to the rust belt<u+2019>s cast-off manufacturing workers, working class suburbanites, or inner-city poor working on a stagnant minimum wage. the same trends have taken hold in farm country, though in different forms. the farms that once generated wealth for entire communities are now creating a new class of superfarmers. the trend is not unprecedented. when the south was more agrarian, the divide was worse <u+2013> land ownership was the ultimate <u+201c>unequalizer.<u+201d> but after a period of more equal wealth, the trend is clearly back toward greater inequality, with more money in the hands of the few. automation has made farm jobs disappear, and at the bottom of the income ladder, many rural residents are still struggling to recover from the great recession. for places like hawkinsville, these trends represent a deepening challenge for how to sow hope. and yet, rural america retains some advantages for addressing those broken hopes. it begins, experts say, with a willingness to reject the tendency toward insularity and open arms and minds to new ideas. <u+201c>communities that are waiting for either [donald] trump or [hillary] clinton to come into office and solve all their issues are being unrealistic,<u+201d> says david peters, a rural sociologist who studies heartland inequality at iowa state university in ames. <u+201c>residents and community leaders do, however, have this power to build up trust in the community <u+2026> [in order] to marshal investment and resources. yes, it<u+2019>s difficult. but it<u+2019>s within their power to change.<u+201d> the most striking thing about rural america's inequality is what you don't see. wealth is not marked by gated communities or mansions. fashion plates do not strut along commerce street in downtown hawkinsville. indeed, there<u+2019>s a ramshackle air to the place, broken only occasionally by the one sign of ostentation: brand-new ford f-350s growling down the highways. yet wealth has been growing here until recently <u+2013> in part because of a short-term turn in the farming cycle; in part, because of long-term consolidation. a run of high prices in the aftermath of the great recession meant farmers like gary dawson were able to slash their debts and pay cash for tractors and more land. he could expand because bigger machinery and improved soil-conditioning techniques allowed him to farm more land more efficiently. <u+201c>we started with a four-row harvester and now we<u+2019>re running a 12-row one,<u+201d> he says. the farming cycle is now turning against farmers. net cash farm income is expected to fall for the fourth year in a row this year. midwestern farmland prices have fallen sharply from record highs. nevertheless, by expanding and becoming more efficient, mr. dawson is joining the ranks of superfarmers <u+2013> a longterm trend that is putting farm production and wealth into fewer and fewer hands. the level of concentration varies by crop and by region. a quarter-century ago, the south's big cotton farmers (with at least 1,000 acres planted) were already producing 30 percent of the nation's crop; by 2007, it was half, according to the united states department of agriculture. midwestern corn and soybean farmers <u+2013> once the backbone of a rural middle class <u+2013> are moving in the same direction. by 2007, big farmers produced nearly a third of the corn crop (up from 9 percent in 1992). <u+201c>what most people think of as family farms don<u+2019>t exist in large numbers anymore, but what exists are large family businesses <u+2026> in the $3 to $5 million range,<u+201d> says mr. peters, the iowa state sociologist. and the bigger the farm, the bigger its average profit margin. by 2011, as crop prices were rising, the average midsize family farm was worth $2.6 million and earned $156,000 a year <u+2013> two-thirds of that from farming. large family farms were worth $4.8 million and earning $413,000; very large farms, just under $10 million and earning $1.7 million. as this wealth accumulates, it is being spread to fewer and fewer people. the midsize to very large operations represent less than 8 percent of the 2.1 million farm households in the united states, most of which rely on income outside agriculture for their livelihood. and as the big operations become more mechanized and efficient, they're not hiring droves of new farmhands. mr. dawson has reduced his permanent crew from dozens in the 1970s to about nine today. <u+201c>a typical [large] farmer is not going to admit that they<u+2019>re making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, in part because nowadays <u+2026> those who have traditionally performed jobs on the farm are left out of any sort of share in the wealth that<u+2019>s being produced,<u+201d> says jonathan bryant, a history professor at georgia southern university in statesboro, who studies small-town life in the south. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s become a difficult situation for a lot of folks, and many just leave. those that don<u+2019>t are the people you see in those clustered groups of rotting trailer houses: they<u+2019>re stuck as much as some person in a central american country is stuck.<u+201d> in hawkinsville, over half of its high school graduates leave for college or someplace else every year and don<u+2019>t come back. despite his success in farming, dawson's children have gone on to professional work elsewhere. his daughter is an architect; his son works at robins air force base, just up the road, as a software technician. for those who haven<u+2019>t shared in the farm boom, the disparity looks exactly like despair. count rex milner and his wife, leeanne, among them. as a just-weaned kitten attacks a rock in their front yard, they describe what seems a far cry from a rural paradise in middle georgia. yes, they can float down the lazy ocmulgee river in inner tubes <u+2013> the local go-to entertainment. but as with hundreds here, the milners rely not on a paycheck but on a federal disability check, which they pad with what amounts to a permanent yard sale. <u+201c>you<u+2019>ve got to scrounge for every dollar you get,<u+201d> says mr. milner, a junk dealer who combs the countryside and flea markets for items he can mark up and sell. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s never been this bad, the economy.<u+201d> they<u+2019>d love to move to another place and start over. but cash-poor and burdened with high-interest debt, he says, <u+201c>we<u+2019>re stuck." for the most part, locals like the milners don<u+2019>t blame big farmers. after all, it<u+2019>s hard to criticize those whose hard work has been bolstered by good fortune, even though they may have been born into a land-rich family. instead, it<u+2019>s hillary clinton or president obama who are the main targets of bitter complaints. "inequality works both ways: it<u+2019>s not just concentration of wealth, but it<u+2019>s also what happens at the bottom,<u+201d> says peters, the rural sociologist. <u+201c>the upshot is that the trend of the withering middle class has occurred in rural areas much further and quicker than in urban and metro communities in general.<u+201d> the current rural inequality is not unheard of, at least in the south. <u+201c>we have seen this kind of inequality before, and it<u+2019>s when we were highly agriculturally dependent in the nation,<u+201d> says linda lobao, a rural sociologist at ohio state university in columbus.<u+00a0><u+201c>it<u+2019>s always the case with land in rural communities: land makes power. and power often doesn<u+2019>t want change." farmers in the 1970s also saw several good years back-to-back and bid up land prices, only to see the farm economy collapse in the 1980s. when land prices crashed, many indebted operators lost their farms another price downturn could happen, squeezing farm incomes again. net cash income is projected to fall by a third this year versus the 2012 peak. and land prices have already begun to ease downward. hawkinsville is not thriving: a restaurant featuring <u+201c>best burgers in town<u+201d> is not open at the supper hour. town fathers have been working for 30 years to renovate an old opera house, but it's still not done. an old firehouse shows cracks in its foundation, waiting, year after year, for renovation. sociologists say reforms may have to run deeper than opera house grants for many divided farm towns grappling for survival in the new economy. according to peters and professor lobao, rural communities that have managed to thrive despite the dour employment dynamics exhibit similar values: an openness to change and outsiders. in many parts of the country, rural towns that have welcomed immigrants, especially, have seen their downtowns, if not thrive, at least manage a slower population decline than more insular communities. last year, the white house rural council launched rural impact, which is helping 10 rural and tribal communities fight income inequality primarily by giving children more educational options. agriculture secretary tom vilsack calls it a <u+201c>whole-family framework for addressing child poverty.<u+201d> more broadly, <u+201c>the key is to try to organize people in some manner to put more claims on local government, to gain more political power,<u+201d> says lobao. in many income-divided towns, she adds, there<u+2019>s a sense that those who don<u+2019>t farm are <u+201c>subject to forces that are beyond their control, which leads to a more fatalistic approach.<u+201d> but in a recent survey of 99 struggling farm towns, adds peters, <u+201c>we find that communities that have higher levels of social capital <u+2013> the level to which people trust one another, and whether they<u+2019>re tolerant of different opinions and allow newcomers to be involved in decisionmaking and power structures <u+2013> those tend to have better economic and demographic outcomes.<u+201d> [editor's note: the cutline for the photo of franklin 'spanky' laidler has been corrected to correspond with his quote in the story.]

rural america confronts a new class divide

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in the name of party unity, trump meets with ryan, other gop leaders donald trump arrived in washington, d.c., on thursday to meet with his party's congressional leaders to hash out their differences and talk gop unity ahead of what is likely to be a pitched general-election battle against hillary clinton. first up was a private meeting with house speaker paul ryan. the two arrived around 9 a.m. et at the republican national committee in a session orchestrated by rnc chairman reince priebus. swarms of journalists, protesters and onlookers crowded around the building just behind the u.s. capitol. the crazy scene included a trump impersonator in a huge pi<u+00f1>ata mask mocking trump on a megaphone, immigration activists, signs that read "trump is a racist" and "islamophobia is un-american," and chants of "gop rip, gop rip." leaders entered through the back door, avoiding a media scrum of 50 or so reporters. ryan sent shock waves through the gop when he announced last week that he was not yet ready to embrace the new york businessman as the gop standard-bearer. "it's going to take more than a week just to repair and unify this party," ryan told the wall street journal in a facebook live interview. "if we just pretend we're unified without actually unifying, then we'll be at half-strength in the fall, and that won't go well for us." ryan told reporters that he does not really know trump. they met briefly in 2012 when ryan ran on mitt romney's presidential ticket. the two men also spoke on the phone in march. ryan said the meeting is, in part, a relationship-building exercise. he told reporters wednesday that he does not expect he will change trump's mind on policy matters where they disagree, but he wants the trump wing and the ryan wing of the party to work together this fall. "this is a big-tent party," ryan said. "there is room for different policy disputes in this party. we come from different wings of the party. the goal here is to unify the various wings of the party around common principles so we can go forward unified." trump initially dissed ryan for not endorsing his campaign, but he offered a more conciliatory tone in an interview with fox's bill o'reilly. "i have a lot of respect for paul, and i think we are going to have a very good meeting," trump said. asked if he expected ryan to "fall in line" and endorse him, trump responded: "i don't think 'fall into line' is the right words. i think he loves this party, he loves this country, and he wants to see something good happen." trump is also expected to meet with the house gop leadership team. majority leader kevin mccarthy, r-calif., and majority whip steve scalise, r-la., have endorsed trump. house republican conference chairwoman cathy mcmorris rodgers, r-wash., the highest-ranking gop woman in congress, has not. like ryan, she says she wants to meet with trump before she makes that call. trump will then meet with senate gop leaders. unlike ryan, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, r-ky., quickly announced his support for trump after the candidate's decisive victory in the may 4 indiana primary that made his nomination a foregone conclusion. "i think most of our members believe that he's won the nomination the old-fashioned way: he got more votes than anybody else," mcconnell told reporters tuesday, "and we respect the voices of the republican primary voters across the country."

in the name of party unity, trump meets with ryan, other gop leaders

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<u+201c>you know, they don<u+2019>t use waterboarding over there; they use chopping off people<u+2019>s heads,<u+201d> trump said sunday on abc<u+2019>s <u+201c>this week with george stephanopoulos.<u+201d> waterboarding, a method of torture in which water is poured over the face of an immobilized prisoner to simulate drowning, is <u+201c>peanuts<u+201d> compared with that, trump said. he said he <u+201c>would absolutely bring back interrogation and strong interrogation.<u+201d> ben carson, running 4 percentage points behind trump in the latest bloomberg politics national poll, taken nov. 15-17, declined to say whether he<u+2019>d favor waterboarding, during an appearance on the same program. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not one who is real big on telling the enemy what we<u+2019>re going to do and what we<u+2019>re not going to do,<u+201d> carson said. trump seemed to moderate earlier comments that were taken as support for a u.s. government registry of muslims, saying he wants a database for refugees coming into the country from syria. <u+201c>when the syrian refugees are going to start pouring into this country, we don<u+2019>t know if they<u+2019>re isis, we don<u+2019>t know if it<u+2019>s a trojan horse,<u+201d> trump said. <u+201c>and i definitely want a database and other checks and balances.<u+201d> the billionaire new york real-estate developer also argued for a program to monitor activity at u.s. mosques. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t want to close mosques; i want to surveil mosques,<u+201d> he said. without what he called <u+201c>strong measures,<u+201d> he warned that <u+201c>you<u+2019>re going to see buildings coming down all over new york city and elsewhere.<u+201d> carson, a retired doctor, also agreed with heavy monitoring of those with the most potential of leaning toward terrorism. <u+201c>we should monitor anything -- mosques, church, school, you know, shopping center -- where there is a lot of radicalization going on,<u+201d> carson said, acknowledging that it could require beefing up u.s. intelligence capabilities. carson, who has said he favored what he considered a fairly easy measure to undermine the islamic state<u+2019>s finances by destroying their oil fields, was questioned on that point after president barack obama said such methods aren<u+2019>t so simple according to the <u+201c>best military minds.<u+201d> <u+201c>we don<u+2019>t really have the option of deciding whether it<u+2019>s easy or not to take them out,<u+201d> carson said sunday. <u+201c>we need to get rid of their ability to derive money from oil, whether we take the fields or whether we blow the fields up.<u+201d> he said iraqi military forces may perform better if they worked directly with u.s. special operations personnel. trump was also questioned sunday about whether he would favor banning people on terrorist watch lists from obtaining firearms, to which he responded, <u+201c>if somebody is on a watch list and an enemy of state and we know it<u+2019>s an enemy of state, i would keep them away, absolutely.<u+201d>

trump calls for the return of waterboarding by us

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senate majority leader mitch mcconnell announced a "plan b" to halt a nuclear deal that would lift sanctions against iran. the measure, which republican aides said likely would be voted on thursday, would prevent president obama from lifting the sanctions until iran releases four jailed americans and recognizes the right of israel to exist. mcconnell made the announcement as democrats prepared for a second time to filibuster a resolution of disapproval of the nuclear deal. soon after mcconnell's remarks, 42 democrats again filibustered the resolution, preventing it from getting the 60 votes needed to advance. "my strong preference is for democrats to simply allow an up-or-down vote on the president's iran deal." mcconnell said. "but if they're determined to make that impossible, then at the very least we should be able to provide some protection to israel and long-overdue relief to americans who've languished in iranian custody for years. either way, this debate will continue."

mcconnell announces 'plan b' to stop iran deal

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less than a week before a bushel of 2016 republican presidential hopefuls square off for the first time in two fox news debates, billionaire businessman donald trump is holding firm to his primary lead -- while his lower-polling rivals battle for visibility in hopes of making the cut for the prime-time stage. trump, seemingly reveling in his role as instigator and bipartisan punching bag, opened up a 7-point lead over the rest of the field in the most recent national poll. wisconsin gov. scott walker and former florida gov. jeb bush also are polling consistently well. rather, the 11th-hour dash is among those in the middle and back of the pack, competing for the last of 10 slots in the prime-time event at cleveland's quicken loans arena. the aug. 6 debate is hosted by fox news, in conjunction with facebook and the ohio republican party. the 9 p.m. et stage will be open to the top 10 candidates in recent national polls. with 17 total candidates now in the race <u+2013> former virginia gov. jim gilmore was the latest, announcing his bid thursday <u+2013> not everyone will make the cut. those who don<u+2019>t can qualify for an earlier debate, at 5 p.m. fox news has eased the criteria for that debate, and candidates will no longer have to reach at least 1 percent in the polls to make the stage, though there are other criteria. the only fair & balanced app <u+2122> that gives you the power to decide! download the fox news election hq 2016 app for iphone or android phone. but there is heavy competition for the main event, the first time leading candidates will face off after seemingly weekly campaign kick-offs. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s too many, and so there is going to be a culling of the herd,<u+201d> said mark jones, political science fellow at the baker institute at houston<u+2019>s rice university. with national poll placement dictating who gets prime-time, the candidates on the margin are doing their best to boost their visibility, including new jersey gov. chris christie and texas gov. rick perry. perry challenged poll-leader trump to a pull-up contest after a week of pummeling the billionaire real estate tycoon for his comments on mexican illegal immigrants and sen. john mccain. meanwhile, christie declared war on marijuana this week, promising coloradans they had better enjoy legalized pot today because he will enforce federal laws against it when he is in the white house. speaking with fox news on thursday, the garden state guv said "we're very confident we'll be at the 9:00 debate." after spending the last several months going after bush <u+2013> now third in the realclearpolitics poll average, behind walker <u+2013> christie is competing these days more with ohio gov. john kasich. christie clocked in at 3 percent in the same rcp average, right behind kasich, putting them on the tail end of the top 10. potentially outside the margin, but fighting to get in, are perry, louisiana gov. bobby jindal, ex-hewlett packard ceo carly fiorina and former pennsylvania sen. rick santorum. former new york gov. george pataki and south carolina sen. lindsey graham are further behind. each, though, has been trying to take on trump in recent weeks, with the latter putting out a viral video of himself destroying a cell phone <u+2013> a response to trump giving out his number during the mccain flap (graham had lashed out at trump for questioning his friend mccain<u+2019>s heroism, triggering trump<u+2019>s ire). <u+201c>i think the top eight candidates are comfortable where they are,<u+201d> said jones. <u+201c>[the others] are pushing the envelope with the goal of rising above the dust that was created when you have 17 candidates running.<u+201d> not making the prime-time cut isn<u+2019>t the end of the road by any means, and there<u+2019>s still plenty of time before the iowa caucuses. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t think being left out of the debate is a death knell,<u+201d> said steve deace, who hosts a conservative radio talk show in the hawkeye state. however, he said, <u+201c>it can hurt from a momentum standpoint, in that it is a spotlight you are not getting.<u+201d> <u+201c>it will be a huge spotlight and i think for someone who is underfunded and under-organized who is impressive when they are in front of people, like bobby jindal, this is the spotlight they are going to need.<u+201d> perhaps an indication of how comfortable the gop front-runner feels right now, trump is in scotland and attended the women's british open at one of his resorts <u+2013> though he still talked campaign shop with reporters thursday. bush, though, is back on the stump stateside on friday, with plans to address the national urban league, along with retired neurosurgeon ben carson. walker and christie are campaigning in iowa friday, as is kentucky sen. rand paul. kasich is in new hampshire. for all the buzz and attention surrounding trump, there is now pressure on him to perform. <u+201c>he is clearly the man of the hour from a buzz standpoint,<u+201d> deace said. <u+201c>i think with one or two exceptions, the goal of the others is to get him to go from zany to crazy, to self-immolate.<u+201d> but that might be difficult, considering he<u+2019>s weathered a string of controversies over his blunt remarks since entering the race. the worst thing that can happen is for trump to pull his punches and wimp out, deace said. <u+201c>his entire campaign is based on him being a blunt instrument he can get back at washington with. if he dulls those edges, that would be the death knell for him.<u+201d> deace said the others, though, have something to gain by not going for the bait. <u+201c>it will be interesting to see how scott walker performs in this environment. i think we have to see if this [debate] diminishes his stature or he is able to craft an everyman persona who is a nice contrast to the bigger personalities,<u+201d> he said. on the other hand, <u+201c>i think ben carson has a much more reserved, laid-back way of communicating than the rest of these candidates. will he bore people, or be seen as the adult in the room?<u+201d>

gop candidates jockey for position in final debate dash

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attorney general eric holder said friday he was "prepared to use all the powers" the federal government has to get the city of ferguson, missouri, in line with the constitution. asked if that included "dismantling the police force," holder said, "if that's what's necessary, we're prepared to do that." it sounds like a radical move on holder's part. but don't get too swept up in it. the doj doesn't exactly have the power to dismantle the ferguson police department if the city doesn't consent <u+2014> and would have to go through a lot of steps before getting that power. plus, dismantling the embattled police department might not fix some of the worst problems outlined in the justice department's report. the department of justice doesn't have the power to dismantle local police departments at will. the way it's probably going to "work with" the city of ferguson, as holder also hinted today, is by drawing up an agreement where ferguson's police would still be independent, but would be monitored by the doj. (the agreement would be enforced in federal court.) the feds would only take over if the city failed, and failed badly, to make the changes laid out in the agreement. this nearly happened in oakland in 2012; as a compromise, the federal government fired the police chief but left the department under the city's control. but it was a full decade after the agreement was first signed. if dismantling happens, it'll be something the city agrees to do itself <u+2014> or even suggests to begin with if holder really wants to tear down the ferguson police department and start over, the best way to do that would be to make dissolution part of the original court-enforced agreement. if the city didn't agree, he could sue them to do it (which would also take years). but given how expensive it's going to be for ferguson's police to comply with the likely court agreement, it might actually be cheaper for them to agree to give up and try again. so the possibility exists that the ferguson police department will be dissolved <u+2014> but it would almost certainly be because the city of ferguson agreed to do it, or even suggested it in the first place. that also means the city would be in charge of putting together whatever is going to replace the ferguson pd. getting rid of the police in ferguson would only address half of the problems identified by the federal government. the department of justice also found massive discrimination and constitutional violations in the municipal court system, including arresting people for showing up to court without being able to afford a court fee; suspending drivers' licenses of people who didn't even know that they'd had a court date, let alone missed one; and setting jail bonds not based on what someone would be able to pay, but based on making the most money for the city. there's no way the federal government's going to be satisfied if ferguson reforms its police but leaves its courts the way they are. disbanding the police department might allow the city to focus on reforming the courts, but it won't be enough on its own. more importantly, though, who would do police work in ferguson after the ferguson police force gets dismantled? the actions of "other law enforcement agencies in st. louis county...have contributed to a general distrust" of police typically, a nearby police force is brought in to take over: either temporarily, while a new police department is hired from the chief down, or permanently, on a contract. and it's not at all clear whether other police departments in the st. louis area are any better. after all, residents had plenty of experience with the st. louis county police last summer during the protests after michael brown's death <u+2014> and they didn't treat protesters any better than ferguson police did. the doj report certainly indicates that the problem in st. louis is bigger than ferguson. in fact, some of the things it faults the ferguson police for doing are things they're being asked to do by other jurisdictions, like arresting people without warrants based on requests from police in other departments. by the same token, many of the unfair court practices the doj found appear to be pretty typical in municipal courts in the area. the report even says: "individuals<u+2019> experiences with other law enforcement agencies in st. louis county, including with the police departments in surrounding municipalities and the county police, in many instances have contributed to a general distrust of law enforcement that impacts interactions with the ferguson police and municipal court." if eric holder wants to dismantle the problems facing the criminal-justice system throughout the st. louis area, he's welcome to try <u+2014> but it's going to take a lot more investigations and potential lawsuits than the one he has going right now.

the feds probably won't dismantle the ferguson pd. that's a good thing.

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at the social security administration, two<u+00a0>officials in charge of one<u+00a0>of the government<u+2019>s worst<u+00a0>backlogs<u+2014>more than 1 million people awaiting a decision about federal disability benefits<u+2014>have been shifted to other jobs. glenn sklar oversees social security<u+2019>s office of disability adjudication and review, a branch with about<u+00a0>1,445 special<u+00a0>judges who must decide if people who<u+2019>ve applied for benefits are disabled enough to get them. james borland is sklar<u+2019>s deputy. [past coverage: the social security office of judges who hear appeals for disability benefits is 990,399 cases behind] this week, social security told its employees that both sklar and borland<u+00a0>would be moving to other positions within the agency, according to documents obtained by the washington post. both men have been in their jobs since 2010. the office<u+2019>s new head will be terrie gruber, transferred from another part of the social security administration. last year, the post wrote about the slow-moving, unwieldy bureaucracy they oversee<u+2013>which had<u+00a0>been running behind since the 1970s, and was only getting more so. at the end of last year,<u+00a0>1,003,580<u+00a0>people were stuck in just one part of the disability process, waiting for a judge to hold a hearing and<u+00a0>make a personalized decision about their health and ability to work. the average wait time for those people was 435 days. both numbers were rising. last fall, sklar told the post that the agency<u+2019>s backlog could be fixed, if social security got enough<u+00a0>funding. <u+201c><u+201c>we have a proven track record of getting the job done when we have adequate and sustained funding,<u+201d> he said. lavenia lavelle, a spokeswoman for social security, said in a statement that carolyn colvin<u+2014>the agency<u+2019>s acting commissioner since 2013<u+2013>was making changes in the top ranks. <u+201c>this is not about an individual but about ensuring under acting commissioner colvin<u+2019>s leadership the agency is ready to continue its world class customer service to the american public,<u+201d> lavelle said in a statement. this backlog has also come under congressional scrutiny, led by oklahoma sen. james lankford (r). lankford has called for reforms that would fix some of the system<u+2019>s oddest features: it asks judges to use an official list of available jobs that hasn<u+2019>t been updated in decades, and it sets up perverse incentives that encourage beneficiaries<u+2019> hired <u+201c>representatives<u+201d> to delay the process. d.<u+00a0>randall frye, the president of a union that represents social security<u+2019>s special disability<u+00a0>judges, said he hoped that the system<u+2019>s new leaders and congress would make changes that streamlined the bureaucracy<u+2013>and also that they would hire more judges. <u+201c>the receipts [of new cases] continue to rise. right now, we have just over a million cases waiting for a hearing,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s unprecedented.<u+201d>

at social security office with a million-person backlog, there<u+2019>s a new chief

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washington (cnn) donald trump and hillary clinton start the race to november 8 on essentially even ground, with trump edging clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new cnn/orc poll. trump tops clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with libertarian gary johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the green party's jill stein at just 2%. the topsy-turvy campaign for the presidency has seen both clinton and trump holding a significant lead at some point in the last two months, though clinton has topped trump more often than not. most recently, clinton's convention propelled her to an 8-point lead among registered voters in an early-august cnn/orc poll. clinton's lead has largely evaporated despite a challenging month for trump, which saw an overhaul of his campaign staff, announcements of support for clinton from several high-profile republicans and criticism of his campaign strategy. but most voters say they still expect to see clinton prevail in november, and 59% think she will be the one to get to 270 electoral votes vs. 34% who think trump has the better shot at winning. neither major third party candidate appears to be making the gains necessary to reach the 15% threshold set by the commission on presidential debates, with just three weeks to go before the first debate on september 26. the new poll finds the two major party candidates provoke large gaps by gender, age, race, education and partisanship. among those likely to turn out in the fall, both candidates have secured about the same share of their own partisans (92% of democrats back clinton, 90% of republicans are behind trump) but independents give trump an edge, 49% say they'd vote for him while just 29% of independent voters back clinton. another 16% back johnson, 6% stein. women break for clinton (53% to 38%) while men shift trump's way (54% to 32%). among women, those who are unmarried make up the core of her support, 73% of unmarried women back clinton compared with just 36% of married women. among men, no such marriage gap emerges, as both unmarried and married men favor trump. younger voters are in clinton's corner (54% to 29% among those under age 45) while the older ones are more apt to back trump (54% to 39% among those age 45 or older). whites mostly support trump (55% to 34%), while non-whites favor clinton by a nearly 4-to-1 margin (71% to 18%). most college grads back clinton while those without degrees mostly support trump, and that divide deepens among white voters. whites who do not hold college degrees support trump by an almost 3-to-1 margin (68% to 24%) while whites who do have college degrees split 49% for clinton to 36% for trump and 11% for johnson. support for johnson seems to be concentrated among groups where clinton could stand to benefit from consolidating voters. although direct comparison between the poll's two-way, head-to-head matchup and its four-way matchup doesn't suggest that johnson is pulling disproportionately from either candidate, his supporters come mostly among groups where a strong third-party bid could harm clinton's standing: younger voters (particularly younger men), whites with college degrees, and independents, notably. the poll follows several national polls in august suggesting that the margin between the two candidates had tightened following the conventions. a cnn poll of polls analysis released friday showed that clinton's lead had been cut in half when compared with the height of her convention bounce. speaking to reporters aboard her campaign plane tuesday, clinton shrugged off a question about the cnn/orc survey. "i really pay no attention to polls. when they are good for me -- and there have been a lot of them that have been good for me recently -- i don't pay attention," clinton said. "when they are not so good, i don't pay attention. we are on a course that we are sticking with." while enthusiasm for the campaign has continued to inch up, it remains well off the mark compared with this point in other recent presidential election years. in the new poll, 46% say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 57% at this point in 2012, 60% in early september of 2008 and 64% in september 2004. further, nearly half of voters say they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election than they have been in previous years, while just 42% say they're more excited about this year's contest. although this question hasn't been asked in every presidential election year, in cnn/orc and cnn/usa today/gallup results dating back to 2000, this poll marks the first time that a significantly larger share of voters say they are less enthusiastic about this year's election. the lack of enthusiasm spikes among clinton supporters. a majority of clinton's supporters say they're less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of trump's backers say they're more excited this time around (56%). that could be contributing to trump's slim advantage among likely voters. among the broader pool of registered voters, clinton edges trump by 3 points. the shift among these voters since the convention is largely due to a rebound in trump's numbers rather than a slide in clinton's. he's gone from 37% support then to 41% among registered voters now. trump holds an edge over clinton as more trusted to handle two of voters' top four issues -- the economy (56% trust trump vs. 41% clinton) and terrorism (51% trump to 45% clinton). clinton holds a solid edge on foreign policy (56% trust her to trump's 40%), and the public is divided over the fourth issue in the bunch, immigration. on that, 49% favor clinton's approach, 47% trump's. at trump's recent campaign appearances, he has argued that he would do more to improve life for racial and ethnic minorities, but voters seem to disagree, 58% say clinton is better on that score vs. 36% who choose trump, and among non-whites, 86% choose clinton to just 12% who think trump would better improve their lives. trump has his largest edge of the campaign as the more honest and trustworthy of the two major candidates (50% say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. just 35% choosing clinton) and as the stronger leader, 50% to 42%. clinton continues to be seen as holding the better temperament to serve effectively as president (56% to 36%) and better able to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief (50% to 45%). on honesty, clinton's backers express greater skepticism about their candidate than do trump's supporters. when asked which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, 94% of trump's backers say he is, while just 70% of those behind clinton choose her, with 11% saying trump is more trustworthy and 17% saying neither of them are. and when voters were asked to name the one issue that would be most important to their vote for president, 5% named honesty or trustworthiness as their top choice, ranking it on par with foreign policy and jobs. both candidates remain largely unliked, with majorities saying they have an unfavorable view of each candidate in the new poll. the cnn/orc poll was conducted by telephone sept. 1-4 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. the survey includes results among 886 registered voters and 786 likely voters. for results among registered or likely voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. correction: the cnn/orc poll topline document released tuesday contained an error, numbers showing the partisan makeup of the sample on the methodology page were transposed. the correct party makeup of all adults in the poll is 32% democratic, 28% republican, 40% independent or something else. this is a similar democratic tilt to the previous cnn/orc poll, in which 28% of respondents described themselves as democrats and 24% republicans and on par with the average across all cnn/orc polling conducted this year, which yields a 5-point democratic advantage." among those determined to be likely to vote, 36% described themselves as democrats, 32% as republicans.

poll: nine weeks out, a near even race

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(cnn) donald trump is now the only republican presidential candidate with a realistic chance of winning the 1,237 votes to clinch the nomination before the national convention this summer. but getting there will be a tough undertaking, and one that leaves little room for error. trump's commanding victory in new york, where he won more than 60% of the vote and the vast majority of the 95 delegates up for grabs, marked a turning point in the delegate race. the manhattan real estate mogul now has improved his chances of winning the nomination outright, while his chief rival, ted cruz, would need a minor miracle to win on the first ballot. "we don't have much of a race anymore," trump said in his victory speech at trump tower on tuesday. "we're going to go into the convention i think as the winner." barry bennett, a senior adviser for the trump campaign, told cnn's chris cuomo that he thinks trump will get 1,237 before summer. "probably right around that first week of june," he said thursday on "new day." "we will reach 1,237. 100%." there are 15 contests remaining, with 674 bound delegates still up for grabs. trump has 846, and if he were to continue on at his current rate -- 47% -- he would still finish about 75 short of the magic number, according to according to cnn estimates. cruz, meanwhile, would have to win every single remaining bound delegate to reach precisely 1,237 and ensure a first-ballot win. because the texas senator has worked to capture delegates who would in theory back him once they are freed from their formal obligations to trump or other candidates, winning at the outset is potentially critical for the new yorker's overall chances. trump's campaign is publicly confident it will get there. in talking points circulated to surrogates wednesday, the campaign predicted that the front-runner would accumulate more than 1,400 delegates -- "and thus a first ballot nomination win in cleveland." to get across the finish line before july, he will need to score at least one more tough victory. trump figures to do well in next week's contests on the eastern seaboard, but could be tripped up or held in later contests in states like montana and oregon. it's expected that trump will pick up a sizable chunk of california's 172-delegate haul on june 7, meaning the real wild card will be indiana. the hoosier state, which votes on may 3, offers 57 delegates. like in new york, it employs a hybrid system that awards those delegates on both winner-take-all basis statewide and by congressional district. nebraska, one week later, will deliver all 36 of its delegates in a winner-take-all contest. but trump on wednesday signaled the importance of indiana, making it his first stop after his new york victory. "it's a rigged, crooked system that's designed so that the bosses can pick whoever they want," he said of the primary contest, re-upping his attacks on rnc during a wednesday rally in indianapolis. "it's rigged for lobbyists. it's rigged for the donors and it's rigged special interest. it's dishonest." cruz, who will be in the state on thursday, is saying he is confident the contest will extend into the summer. cruz's declaration essentially sets up the final weeks of the campaign as a choice for republicans: trump or no trump. to help him defy cruz and other naysayers, trump has beefed up his political operation. for months, the campaign relied on an unusually small and insular operation at the top. but in recent weeks, it became clear that trump was frustrated by what he believed was the cruz campaign outmaneuvering him on delegate collection. he appeared especially troubled by the results in colorado, where cruz swept all of the delegates there at the state's republican party convention. sensing that something had to change, trump shook up his operations, bringing on veteran gop consultant paul manafort to serve as convention manager. manafort is now tasked with the broad responsibility of overseeing the "nomination process." speaking to reporters after trump was declared winner of the new york primary tuesday, manafort said the campaign had simply entered a new phase. "we're in a phase where the end game requires winning smart," he said.

can donald trump really hit 1,237 before cleveland?

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(cnn) this story was reported by dana bash, gloria borger, abigail crutchfield, jeremy diamond, chris frates, noah gray, ashley killough, betsy klein, elizabeth landers, phil mattingly, dan merica, sara murray, mark preston, manu raju, gabe ramirez, maeve reston, lauren selsky, sunlen serfaty, cassie spodak, gregory wallace, and jeff zeleny. there was more than a hint of irony in donald trump's win in new hampshire tuesday night. in a state that has always been known for giving new political life to the hardest-working candidates, he swept the field. he lapped his closest challenger, ohio governor john kasich, by double digits, and he notched his first win in this presidential contest by acting more like a traditional candidate. trump's victory speech was gracious and restrained with a long list of thank yous for family members and campaign staff. he acknowledged that he had learned the lesson in iowa that the ground game matters, and paid more attention to turning out his voters in new hampshire. most striking, he had nothing but compliments for his fellow rivals. in fact, trump had been a mere spectator in the biggest brawl of the week -- the showdown between new jersey gov. chris christie and florida sen. marco rubio that recast the republican race. entering new hampshire after the iowa caucuses last monday, rubio had been the candidate to beat, but trump didn't even touch him. it was christie who demolished rubio, halting his momentum during saturday night's debate in a moment that could go down in history as one of the toughest exchanges of the gop primary campaign. though on the sidelines, trump underscored the power of the moment during the commercial break as christie walked across the stage to see his wife. someone grabbed christie's arm from behind, and the new jersey governor turned to see none other than the taunter-in-chief donald trump. "oh my god. that was brutal," trump muttered to christie on the debate stage, according to someone familiar with the exchange. "tremendous." perhaps staying out of the fray this week (with the exception of a vulgar swipe at ted cruz on the eve of the election) helped donald trump. he swept a range of demographic and ideological groups, appealing to six-in-ten new hampshire voters who said they were looking for an outside candidate. the commanding victories in new hampshire by two outsiders <u+2014> trump and democratic winner bernie sanders <u+2014> reinforce the tremendous vulnerability of the establishment in the 2016 presidential race. insiders in both parties are struggling to find their footing in a year when voters are fed up with the status quo. democrat hillary clinton is looking toward the march contests as her firewall. john kasich is trying to capitalize on his moment after climbing to second in new hampshire. jeb bush is hoping to hang on by engineering a strong performance in south carolina. chris christie has headed home to assess his chances amid indications that he will soon end his bid, according to two sources. and marco rubio is trying to regroup after a humiliating defeat. meanwhile, trump only got stronger tuesday night. after he underperformed in the polls in iowa -- a fact many iowa strategists attributed to the weakness of his ground game compared to that of winner ted cruz -- trump's campaign made a concerted push to reach voters in new hampshire who might not head to the polls. in addition to his big rallies, he added smaller, more intimate events and retail stops where he could mingle with voters, apparently with great success. "we are coming to the end of a beautiful, beautiful journey," he said during a town hall in londonderry monday afternoon. "it should be a very big day for the nation." the dreamer takes on the doer the outsiders understood that they had captured their moment: sanders congratulated his supporters tuesday night by promising "nothing short of a political revolution." he vowed that his "movement" would bring together working people who have given up on the political process. "we will all together say loudly and clearly that the government of our great nation belongs to all of us, not just a few wealthy campaign contributors," he told a boisterous crowd. "that is what this campaign is about. that is what the political revolution is about." the momentum for a resounding win in the first-in-the-nation primary came a week earlier with his surprising strength in iowa. votes were still being counted in iowa when sanders boarded his charter plane to new hampshire after midnight. the feat he had just achieved once seemed unthinkable: the 74-year-old democratic socialist from vermont had come within a fraction of a percentage point of slaying clinton, the anointed candidate of the democratic establishment and one of the most famous women in the world. hours earlier, clinton had dashed on stage to claim her somewhat tenuous victory before the networks even called it. but as sanders and his aides winged their way to new hampshire past midnight, they knew the narrative had shifted in their favor. with that razor-thin margin, the world would view the result as a tie. that meant the vermont senator had cleared a huge hurdle: dispelling doubt that he could be viable. and that meant everything for the campaign's momentum in new hampshire. the money was pouring in online. "when we began this campaign, i think it is fair to say we were considered to be a fringe campaign. i would hope most people no longer believe that," sanders told reporters as he stood in the aisle, illuminated by the ultra violet glow of the interior lights on his eastern airlines 757. "we are in this to the convention," he said. "tonight shows the american people that this is a campaign that can win." sleep could wait. by 5:15am that morning, he was standing on the back of a flatbed truck in bow, new hampshire, his breath visible in the cold new hampshire air. "jane and i, we cannot believe that you're here at 5 o'clock in the morning," sanders said, as he and his wife rallied supporters in the pre-dawn darkness. "something is wrong with you guys!" but the electricity surrounding him that morning was a harbinger of what would unfold in the week to come. for team clinton, the imperative of closing a polling gap of more than twenty points a week before the new hampshire primary seemed almost surreal. this, after all, was a state that had been kind to her and her husband. it was here that bill clinton positioned himself as the "comeback kid" in 1992. her tearful moment at a portsmouth coffee shop sharing her struggles with a group of women in 2008 allowed her to rebound after her humiliating third-place finish in iowa. long before sanders emerged as a threat this cycle, she had insisted she was taking nothing for granted, airing ads in new hampshire as early as august. clinton and her aides labored throughout last year to build the narrative that this was her historic moment. at her first post-iowa rally this past week with new hampshire governor maggie hassan, she was greeted here in the granite state as the first woman to ever win the iowa caucuses. female senators flew up from washington to canvass for her in hopes of breaking what she had called that highest, hardest glass ceiling. but the overt appeal to the historic nature of her candidacy didn't seem to be resonating in 2016. for weeks, tensions had been swirling within her camp about how to knock out the charismatic vermont senator, who had captured the same kind of cool that barack obama did in 2008. some clinton aides felt she'd been playing it too safe. now behind by double digits, the stage seemed set for a long and protracted delegate fight. though new hampshire seemed like a lost cause, she punched hard in thursday night's debate, skewering sanders' lofty proposals as fantasy that could never be achieved. she bristled at sanders' efforts to cast her as a creature of wall street: "it's time to end the very artful smear that you and your campaign have been carrying out," she told him. at the same time, she continued to stumble through answers about the $675,000 she was paid for three speeches from goldman sachs, which only seemed to reinforce sanders' most powerful line of attack against her that she was the ultimate insider. "did you have to be paid $675,000," cnn's anderson cooper asked clinton during cnn's democratic town hall in new hampshire a day earlier on wednesday. "well, i don't know. um, that's what they offered," she replied, seemingly caught off guard by the question. at the time she accepted those fees, she told cooper, she wasn't sure she was going to run again for the white house. "i didn't know to be honest, i wasn't -- i wasn't committed to running," she said. preparing for defeat, clinton and her aides spent the week trying to lower expectations, with the candidate herself wondering aloud whether she should have skipped the granite state primary altogether and moved on to firmer ground in nevada and south carolina, states with far more diverse populations where sanders is not expected to run as strong. sanders had a home-court advantage in new hampshire, she and her surrogates insisted over and over again, and there wasn't much she could do about it. "their argument is -- and it has got some strength to it -- look, you are behind here, you are in your opponent's backyard," clinton told supporters at a campaign event in derry mid-week. but ever the fighter, she vowed to press on: "i know i've got some ground to make up. i'm ready. i'm going to fight until the last vote is cast." behind the scenes, clinton's aides were already looking at the map ahead: airing ads in south carolina and nevada to lock in minority voters who will be critical to their delegate counts and marshaling their teams in upcoming caucus states like maine and minnesota where sanders thinks he can do well. in a sign of resignation about tuesday's likely result, they even sent clinton out of state sunday to flint, michigan, to talk about the water crisis -- an issue of great importance to many minority voters who have watched the scandal unfold in horror. the most ominous development for clinton: the yawning gap between her and sanders among young voters, who broke heavily in sanders' favor, according to exit polls tuesday night. most strikingly, women under age 30 split 79% for sanders to 20% for clinton. while many clinton allies are deeply puzzled by gap, clinton has tried to strike a positive note, stating at her campaign events, including tuesday night, that even if young women were not with her, she will still fight for them. pressing her case, she also stressed that the struggle for women's equality is far from over. but she may have been harmed in the final days when others took that message too far. madeleine albright, the first female secretary of state, touched off a firestorm as she mocked sanders' call for a "revolution" at clinton's rally in concord saturday. introducing clinton at that event -- which somewhat ominously was filled with out-of-state canvassers and some political tourists -- albright said the real revolution in the 2016 race would be electing the first woman president. "we can tell our story of how we climbed the ladder, and a lot of you younger women think it's done," albright said, before pivoting to a scorching rebuke of young women supporting sanders: "it's not done. there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other." the crowd cheered and clinton laughed, but the comments risked further alienating young women supporters of sanders. the controversy over albright's comments was amplified by discussion of gloria steinem's observation earlier in the week in an interview with "real time" host bill maher that young women were supporting sanders to meet "boys." "they're going to get more activist as they get older," steinem told maher. "and when you're young, you're thinking, 'where are the boys?' the boys are with bernie." steinem sought to smooth over her comments in a sunday facebook post, but the sting of her words and albright's remained. some young women voters in new hampshire said they were dismayed by what they viewed as shaming by the clinton campaign and its allies. gabrielle greaves, a university of new hampshire student, who had attended the cnn town hall with both sanders and clinton earlier in the week, said the albright and steinem flap only reinforced the "disconnect between the generations." "older women just can't fathom why we aren't voting for hillary clinton, and i don't really think they're trying to understand," said greaves, a 19-year-old brooklyn native in an interview here in manchester. "i think a lot of older women think we don't understand how much hillary clinton has sacrificed, and how much she's been through and what she's done for women. just because i don't think she should be president doesn't mean i'm not thankful for the things she has done." greaves added that "there's just something i don't trust about hillary clinton." bernie sanders, she said, "is a genuine soul." "i just want the older generation to have the confidence in us that we can make decisions," she said. "just because we have opposing views, doesn't mean we're not intelligent enough to think about these things and consider all the options." the question of trust continued to dog clinton throughout her events all week in new hampshire. interviews with voters after her rallies suggested she was having trouble closing the sale as some democrats worried about her liabilities ahead. jane fargo came to clinton's concord rally over the weekend holding a sign that said "convince me" in red letters. she left unconvinced by the former secretary of state. "i'm really torn. who is going to look out best for my interests? my investments are going down; i'm looking at retirement in 12 years and it's really scary," said fargo, a 52-year-old middle-school teacher from bow. "i love bernie's fiery spirit. somebody's got to go shake up something and that sells me toward bernie." standing next to the bleachers in the gymnasium where clinton had just spoken, fargo said she liked her ideas but worried about "how entrenched she is." "she just been in government forever, so is she already sold out? or is she really going to go in and shake things up like bernie is promising to do?" "i'm looking for change. i want change," fargo said. at the same time, "when they say clinton will be ready on day one, i've got a feeling she'll be ready on day one," she said. as for sanders? "that's my qualm right there, you hit the nail on the head." in the final days, sanders' rallies crackled with the kind of electricity that accompanies a candidate on the rise. taking the stage in portsmouth sunday afternoon, he peeled off his jacket and tossed it to the beanie-clad college kids on the stage behind him -- who cheered as though they were in the presence of a rock star. the cheers built to a crescendo as he ticked through the items in his stump speech -- railing against the "rigged economy," promising universal health care, vowing to take on the big banks and a broken criminal justice system. he engaged in call-answer exchange with the crowd as he encouraged them to shout out how much student debt they were carrying as he talked about his plans for free college. "$100,000? ... you win," he said, pointing to one woman in the crowd. to laughter, he mocked the refrain he has heard from clinton's allies: "your ideas are so ambitious." sanders paused for a beat. "we will get them done because people will demand that we get them done," he thundered. clinton's closing days of her new hampshire campaign carried eerie echoes of her 2008 campaign. bill clinton, who had been a subdued and measured advocate for his wife leading up to the iowa caucuses, lashed out at sanders supporters in the final weekend -- condemning sexist attacks and calling out the media for being too soft in their coverage of sanders. "when you're making a revolution, you can't be too careful about the facts," the former president said. "you're just for me or against me." his critique of sanders' agenda as unachievable recalled 2008, when he dubbed barack obama's campaign a "fairy tale." once again, the former president warned, democratic voters were rolling the dice. by monday, the die seemed cast. the conversation around the democratic campaign focused not on a comeback, but on a campaign shakeup. looking to change the story line, hillary clinton was circumspect, saying in an msnbc interview that the campaign was "taking stock." on the trail, she struck a poignant tone in the final hours: "for me, this is a labor of love," she said at one of her last events at a restaurant on manchester's west side. she conceded defeat in a statement at 8 pm shortly after the polls closed in new hampshire tuesday night. "i still love new hampshire, and i always will," she said, taking the stage with her husband and daughter at southern new hampshire university. but she was looking ahead to south carolina and the states beyond, telling her donors in an email that she wouldn't be discouraged by the results. "i wish tonight had gone differently," she wrote in a fundraising email. "but i know what it's like to be knocked down -- and i've learned from long experience that it's not whether you get knocked down that matters. it's about whether you get back up." one political knock-down changed the trajectory of the gop campaign in new hampshire: christie's merciless takedown of rubio, who had seemed on the cusp of muscling the other establishment candidates out of the race for a three-way contest with trump and cruz. given tuesday night's results with kasich's strong second-place finish, christie's maneuver to damage rubio ultimately looked like a kamikaze mission for the governor, who staked his entire campaign on new hampshire but ended up in sixth place. a week earlier after rubio's surprisingly strong third-place finish in iowa, it had looked as though the establishment had finally found their candidate to rally around. but with the skill of a new jersey street fighter, christie managed to single-handedly halt what rubio's aides had dubbed "marco-mentum" saturday night by taking his rival's greatest strengths -- his youth, his charisma, his uplifting message -- and turning them into weaknesses. rattling rubio with unflinching eye contact, christie had walked the florida senator into a trap: one that made him appear inexperienced, unready for the role of commander in chief, a robotic candidate programmed with scripted lines, who seemed to wilt under pressure as sweat beaded on his forehead. "i like marco rubio, and he's a smart person and good guy, but he simply does not have the experience to be president of the united states," christie said during that debate moment. "we've watched it happen, everybody, for the last seven years. the people of new hampshire are smart. do not make the same mistake again." during the past month, the christie-rubio rivalry had turned intensely personal. rubio's allies had set their mark on christie in early january just as he seemed to be rising in the polls on the strength of his many town halls here. early that month, the super pac supporting rubio, conservative solutions pac, unleashed multi-million dollar ad buy. they put out a pair of scorching ads faulting the new jersey governor for his past position on common core, for his expansion of medicaid under obamacare, and for new jersey's economic woes. one ad was essentially a montage of photos of christie and obama after superstorm sandy, a sore spot with conservative voters. the other raised the specter of the george washington bridge scandal, the scheme to close lanes and create traffic tie ups that embroiled officials in his administration. "chris christie. high taxes. weak economy. scandals," the ad's tag line said. "not what we need in the white house." christie and his allies were furious. in private conversations, christie told aides he couldn't believe the response that rubio was getting from voters and donors given his thin resume in senate and what he viewed as a lackluster record of accomplishments, according to a person familiar with the conversations. after iowa, with their poll numbers still in single digits, christie seized his moment to strike. some members of christie's team became even more riled up by the calls they received after iowa, suggesting christie should drop out so the party could coalesce around rubio. as candidates began shifting their campaigns toward the granite state on feb. 2, christie telegraphed his strategy to reporters, remarking that it was going to be an "interesting week" for rubio. he tested his lines about the dangers posed by first-term senators on the stump. and then the real onslaught began when he unleashed his new attack line for rubio -- calling him the "boy in the bubble" who relied on advisers for canned lines. relishing his performance after the debate, christie quoted "the great political philosopher mike tyson," the heavyweight-boxing champion. "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face," he told reporters. the debate moment was played again and again -- even on tuesday morning as voters were headed to the polls. people close to rubio acknowledged that his performance in the debate clearly had an impact in the polls. but the headlines about how rubio had choked were even more devastating. on tuesday night, he took full responsibility: "our disappointment tonight is not on you," he told the crowd at his victory party. "it's on me. i did not do well on saturday, and it will never happen again." allies of bush and kasich were virtually giddy, in large part because the debate had reset the race for donors who had been leaning toward rubio. once again, these skittish donors were back on the sidelines -- frozen at least for a time. and it was clear that the fight for the establishment lane could continue for weeks to come. in interviews on the campaign trail with new hampshire's famously late deciders, many voters who had been enamored by rubio admitted the debate had given them second thoughts. they echoed christie's suggestion that rubio might end up getting destroyed by hillary clinton in a general election. some were baffled by the fact that rubio had repeated the same line four times in the debate and then repeated a line almost verbatim in one of his final events. what had once seemed like admirable message discipline from a polished candidate had turned into a viral meme. in the final days, rubio was shadowed across the state by rubio robots (paid for, of course, by the right to rise "super pac" supporting bush). the doubts introduced late in the game mattered on election day. stephanie tsepas, who ran into rubio at her polling place in derry tuesday, had gone to see one of his town halls friday and left with a headache, she said, because he seemed so robotic and rehearsed. "i felt like i was living in one of his commercials," tsepas said. she had a chance to engage at a more personal level with the florida senator at her polling place, asking him about his plan to fund cures for cancer, a disease that her husband has. ultimately she cast her vote for someone else, though she would not say whom. "he could be a great candidate for president," tsepas said of rubio. "i just don't think now is his time." but as the results showed, the christie-rubio duel that dominated the final days of the first-in-the-nation primary cut both ways. after a disappointing finish, christie headed home to review his options. he may have taken a step too far in his effort to halt rubio's momentum. roger fletcher, who had been considering the new jersey governor, decided he would side with the "victim, not the bully." "thanks to chris christie's bashing, i went with marco rubio," he wrote to bash after casting his vote tuesday. the fight to break out of the pack the christie-rubio showdown was a moment that had long been in the making in the crowded establishment lane here in new hampshire. four candidates <u+2014> rubio, christie, kasich and bush <u+2014> had labored in the shadow of trump, and ultimately kasich benefited most from that jumble in the middle of the pack. from the beginning, those four candidates knew there would be another ticket, or perhaps two, out of new hampshire beyond ted cruz and trump. though cruz was not a natural fit for the new hampshire voters, his ground game has proven exceptional so far and was able to ride his iowa victory into more comfortable territory in south carolina without facing high expectations here. casting about for more moderate new hampshire voters, bush, kasich and christie all committed early to the john mccain model, driving from one corner of the state to another, holding dozens of town halls and lingering until the last voters had a chance to shake hands and ask questions. behind the scenes it was a bloodbath of negative ads and mailers behind the scenes. by january, the candidates and their allies had spent at least $30 million on negative ads, according to kantar media/cmag. a large portion of that spending was by the pro-bush super pac, right to rise, which sought to cast rubio as a vote-skipping political novice and kasich as a budget buster who had agreed to expand medicaid as part of obamacare. one mailer from right to rise showed pictures of kasich and rubio on a pair of red dice: "don't roll the dice. america needs a leader we can trust." despite all that spending, bush flailed as he repeatedly tried to take on trump without success. but he became a better campaigner during his time in new hampshire. he kept his town halls wonky and policy-focused, insisting even during his final campaign stops here that he was still "a joyful warrior." voters would often walk away from his town halls marveling that the campaigner that they had just seen on stage was a different person than they'd seen in the debates. he became accustomed on the rope line to being counseled by voters, who tried to buck him up by offering unsolicited advice about how to improve his debate performances. in the final weekend, his campaign ramped up its ground game, which had focused largely on the populous southern band of new hampshire, by bringing in dozens of former aides to president george w. bush and president george h.w. bush, as well as friends from florida to knock on doors and make phone calls. he drew one of his biggest crowds with a special appearance by 90-year-old barbara bush, who called her son "the world's nicest man" during an appearance thursday night in derry. "he's not a bragger -- we don't allow that," barbara bush said that night. "but he's decent and honest. he's everything we need in a president." becoming more emboldened over time, bush tried to cast his attempted takedowns of trump as an act of valor, going so far as to call trump a "whiner" and "a liar" in one of his final tweets the day before the primary. "i'm defending the honor of people that i really respect," bush told cnn's dana bash in an interview monday. "i'm a joyful warrior. there's a difference between sitting back and watching someone try to hijack a party that i believe will allow people to rise up again." like christie, bush also became increasingly willing to go after rubio in the final weeks. he offered his most pointed criticism of the florida senator in an msnbc interview friday, shrugging when asked what rubio had accomplished in the senate: "nothing," he said. "he's a great guy. but he's not a leader." and he refused to apologize for the attack ads by right to rise. "politics ain't bean bag," he told reporters. at his final rally in portsmouth on monday night, bush reminded attendees that he'd gone to nearly every nook and cranny of new hampshire, including about 15,000 different dunkin' donuts. his ground game was sophisticated and well-funded -- particularly after he had shifted resources and staff from his miami headquarters to the granite state. "you're from new hampshire, you can change the course of anything," bush told voters in portsmouth monday night. "if you don't think the pundits are right, the obituaries that have been written about all the candidates, including me.... if you disagree with that you can reset this race tomorrow. you have that power. no one else does. it's an extraordinary responsibility." in one of the ironies of tuesday night's race, it was kasich's sunny campaign that ultimately notched him a second place finish behind trump. kasich's advisers had always believed that he had a strong chance here because of his moderate record and potential appeal to new hampshire's undeclared voters. and they invested in data to help target those late-deciding independent voters in the final hours. throughout the process, kasich had also chafed at what he viewed as unfair attacks on his record. after an event earlier this week, he complained to reporters that his campaign had millions of dollars spent against them. "they can't even build mailboxes big enough to put all the negative advertising in from all these campaigns," he said. but he believed his ground game would "insulate us from all these attacks." as rubio stumbled, kasich's strategists saw an opening, bringing in some 500 out-of-state volunteers to help them canvass and make phone calls in the final days. he was one of the few candidates who looked like he was having fun on the campaign trail -- taking a break between his 99th and 100th town hall in hollis, new hampshire, friday to engage in a snowball fight with reporters and aides. "if we win, i think it will send a powerful message," kasich said a day earlier, "because i think now is the time to be positive." he touched on those themes in his victory speech after coming in second to donald trump, asserting that there was "magic in the air" and describing his campaign as an effort "to restore the spirit of america" while "leaving no person behind." "maybe we are turning a page on a dark part of american politics," he said, "because tonight the light overcame the darkness." but the path ahead remains cloudy for the establishment: with a jumbled mess of candidates still vying for third late tuesday night, the brutal battle in new hampshire that was supposed to clarify the race ultimately may have simply led to stalemate.

new hampshire primary: how the outsiders won -- and the insiders crumbled

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citing an "erosion of human rights guarantees" and corruption in venezuela, president obama issued an executive order monday imposing sanctions on members of the country's military and intelligence services. the white house says the executive order builds on the venezuela defense of human rights and civil society act of 2014, part of a response to a violent crackdown on government protests. obama also invoked his emergency powers to declare "a national emergency with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the united states posed by the situation in venezuela." u.s. relations with venezuela are currently in tatters, even as it attempts to forge new ties to cuba. as npr's parallels blog reported sunday, "president nicolas maduro accuses the u.s. of plotting a coup against him, and is expelling most u.s. diplomats from venezuela. he is also demanding that americans secure visas to enter the country." president obama's executive order freezes the assets of seven individuals, ranging from gustavo enrique gonz<u+00e1>lez l<u+00f3>pez, the director general of venezuela's national intelligence service, to the head of venezuela's bolivarian national police, manuel eduardo p<u+00e9>rez urdaneta. like several others on the list, the two men are charged with being involved with "significant acts of violence or conduct that constitutes a serious abuse or violation of human rights." the white house's list also includes prosecutor katherine nayarith haringhton padron, who is accused of charging members of venezula's opposition with crimes such as "assassination/coup plots based on implausible <u+2014> and in some cases fabricated <u+2014> information."

obama imposes sanctions on venezuela, invoking emergency powers

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clinton leads 2016 poll: hillary clinton tops the latest poll of potential 2016 presidential candidates in iowa. clinton comes out ahead of sen. marco rubio and sen. rand paul. former secretary of state hillary rodham clinton laughs at a speech during a february ceremony honoring her at the pentagon in washington. clinton leads the latest poll in iowa. husband bill says, "relax." let his wife enjoy a bit of a private life for the first time in two decades. but as far as the pollsters are concerned, the 2016 race is underway. and kentucky sen. rand paul is certainly acting like he's in the race. the latest poll out of iowa has former secretary of state hillary clinton beating florida sen. marco rubio handily (48 vs. 37 percent), but could face a tougher race against senator paul (46 vs. 42 percent), according to a new poll by quinnipiac university . the poll says that iowa voters would give the race to either senator rubio or senator paul, if the democratic party candidate was vice president joe biden. "the major difference between former secretary of state hillary clinton and vice president joseph biden is that she runs much better among independent voters, although sen. rand paul runs better among that key group than either democrat," said peter a. brown, assistant director of the quinnipiac university polling institute. "in general sen. paul appears to be the better gop candidate at this point in iowa. part of the reason may be the publicity from his recent high-profile visit to the state, but more likely is that he begins with a solid base of support - the folks who voted for his father in the 2008 and 2012 caucuses." as the christian science monitor reported , rand paul was in iowa two weeks ago, and was popular among republicans. in a recent survey of [only] the registered republican voters in iowa, paul won 39 percent of the vote with marco rubio next in line at just 20 percent. (among democrats , hillary clinton won 43 percent with vice president joe biden winning 27 percent.) earlier this year, paul won a straw poll vote<u+00a0>at the annual conservative political action conference (cpac) . at a monitor-sponsored press gathering last month , paul said he would not decide whether to run before 2014. meanwhile, he<u+2019>s just unique enough among the gop field <u+2013> and just different enough from his father <u+2013> to keep drawing attention. on monday night, paul was in another key primary state. he addressed a sold-out new hampshire republican party dinner of some 500 attendees. at that dinner speech, as he did in iowa, he criticized hillary clinton's handling of the terrorist attack on the us consulate in benghazi, libya. "if i had been president, i would have relieved [hillary clinton] from office. without question that is a dereliction of duty," said paul in concord, n.h., according to realclearpolitics.com. another quinnipiac poll of voters in new jersey , taken in march, also showed clinton vanquishing three republican contenders. clinton beat new jersey gov. chris christie (45 to 37 percent), in that poll. voters surveyed also showed her beating rubio and us rep. paul ryan of wisconsin by even wider margins. the poll did not ask about senator paul. "former secretary of state hillary clinton would start a 2016 presidential campaign with enormous advantages," mr. brown of the quinnipiac said in a statement after the new jersey poll.<u+00a0> "she obviously is by far the best known and her more than 20 years in the public spotlight allows her to create a very favorable impression on the american people. but it is worth noting that she had very good poll numbers in 2006 looking toward the 2008 election, before she faced a relative unknown in barack obama." when asked about his wife's 2016 plans, earlier this month bill clinton said , "she<u+2019>s taking a role in the [clinton] foundation, she<u+2019>s writing books, she<u+2019>s having a little fun being a private citizen for the first time in 20 years.<u+201d> and then what?

clinton leads 2016 poll in iowa, but rand paul is close (+video)

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america's doctors can rest easy: not only has congress ensured they will be paid in full for the services they render to medicare patients, it has ended the yearly ritual putting that in doubt. the senate voted 92-8 to approve a long-term "doc fix," as the legislation adjusting medicare fees has long been known, less than three hours before federal officials would have reduced payments to health-care providers by 21 percent. president obama has indicated that he will sign the bill, which also extends the federal children's health insurance program, a key democratic priority. despite the last-minute nature of the vote, it was lauded by hill leaders as a bipartisan triumph for both removing a yearly headache from the legislative calendar but also by implementing modest reforms to medicare, including future incentives for doctors to deliver better care as well as premium hikes for the wealthiest medicare recipients. [congress congratulates itself for the <u+2018>doc fix<u+2019> deal, but can it happen again?] <u+201c>instead of kicking this important medicare payment issue down the road again, a strong bipartisan majority in congress voted to finally solve the problem and ensure that seniors on medicare don<u+2019>t lose access to their doctors," majority leader mitch mcconnell (r-ky.) said in a statement. sen. ron wyden (d-ore.), ranking member of the senate finance committee, said the vote was "a milestone for the medicare program" for unraveling a "common-sense-defying" reimbursement system. mcconnell called tuesday night's vote "another reminder of a new republican congress that<u+2019>s back to work," but it could not have happened without support from top democratic leaders. the deal was forged last month in the house, in a bargain struck by speaker john a. boehner (r-ohio) and minority leader nancy pelosi (d-calif.) to eliminate the yearly "doc fix" votes while implementing some cost-cutting reforms to medicare and extending the children's insurance program. the bill passed the house 392 to 37 on march 26. the senate did not act on the bill before leaving the next day for a two-week recess. the "doc fix" has been necessitated by a 1997 legislative provision known as the sustainable growth rate, which mandated that medicare fees could not exceed the growth in the overall u.s. economy. but as actual health-care costs have far outstripped the fee hikes allowed by the 1997 legislation, congress has been forced to step in on a yearly basis to reset the rates or risk the possibility that many health-care providers would stop treating medicare recipients. before the final senate vote tuesday, senators rejected six amendments, the adoption of any of which would have sent the bill back to the house, busting the midnight deadline. the centers for medicare & medicaid services said earlier this month that it would begin processing cut-rate payments to doctors starting wednesday. the bill passed over the objections of the senate's most conservative senators, who pushed colleagues to pay for the $141 billion in net spending that the congressional budget office estimates the bill will create over the next decade. sen. mike lee (r-utah) accused his republican colleagues of hypocrisy for touting a budget resolution that will balance the federal budget by 2025 while passing a medicare bill that will undermine that goal. sen. ted cruz (r-tex.), a presidential candidate, said in a statement tuesday that any deal ending the "doc fix" should be "fully paid for and include significant and structural reforms to medicare that provide seniors more power and control over their health care." an amendment offered by sen. john cornyn (r-tex.) would have offset the additional spending by repealing the health-care individual mandate -- the cornerstone of president obama's affordable care act. that measure went down along party lines in a vote requiring a 60-vote majority, with no democrats or independents joining the senate's 54 republicans. republicans, meanwhile, banded together to defeat democratic amendments that would have doubled the children's health insurance extension from two years to four, eliminated abortion restrictions in the bill and beefed up funding for women's health, and eliminated a cap on medicare coverage for physical therapy. while cruz and rubio opposed the bill, a third presidential hopeful, professional ophthalmologist rand paul (r-ky.), supported it.

hours from deadline, bipartisan medicare bill heads to white house

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a new intelligence report commissioned by the white house says that the isis terror group will grow in numbers and gain ground unless it suffers significant losses in iraq and syria. the findings sharply contradict previous statements by president obama and other white house officials that the islamic state has been "contained" by a program of u.s.-led airstrikes and the deployment of approximately 3,500 u.s. forces to train and otherwise aid moderate syrian rebels and kurdish fighters. on sunday, a u.s. official told fox news that isis has been able to effectively recruit and attract affiliates despite losses on the ground, and has now supplanted al qaeda as the primary global jihadist threat.the official said that going forward, the entirety of the isis threat must be addressed, and the group's main base of operations in syria must be <u+201c>degraded.<u+201d> the findings were first reported by the daily beast, which said the white house asked for the assessment prior to the nov. 13 attacks in paris, in which isis militants killed 130 people in a series of coordinated shootings and suicide bombings. in response to the report, the daily beast said president obama had directed defense secretary ash carter and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff gen. joseph dunford to come up with new strategies against isis. one recommendation, announced by carter tuesday, is a special operations cell with the ability to capture senior isis leaders in the hope of finding out more about their networks. however, the daily beast reported that carter's announcement took military planners by surprise, since they had yet to finalize important details, including the rules of engagement under which such raids would be carried out. the eight-page report was compiled by a team of analysts from the cia, nsa, and other agencies, the website reported. "this intel report didn't tell us anything we didn't already know," an official told the daily beast. "it was lots of great charts showing countries highlighted across the globe, with some groups having pledged allegiance to isis and others leaning towards it." the report also described how the terrorist group with aspirations of founding an extremist islamic caliphate already has a network of groups that have pledged allegiance or are vying for membership in a dozen countries. click for more from the daily beast.

intelligence report commissioned by white house says isis not contained

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istanbul (cnn) the suicide bomber who killed at least 10 foreigners tuesday in a popular central istanbul tourist area belonged to isis, officials said -- an attack that shows the group's nerve, reach and capacity for terror. no group claimed responsibility for the blast, yet turkish prime minister ahmet davutoglu pinned blame on the group that calls itself the islamic state, which has entrenched itself in neighboring syria and iraq while proving willing time and again to lash out elsewhere. at least eight germans died in the blast between the hagia sophia and blue mosque tourist attractions in istanbul's cultural and historic heart, german chancellor angela merkel said, warning that figure may rise. a turkish official earlier told cnn that at least nine germans were killed. davutoglu indicated that the 15 wounded were from inside and outside his country, with german foreign minister frank-walter steinmeier saying nine of those were german. "they haven't just targeted those who died," davutoglu said. "they have targeted the whole of turkey and the whole world." born in 1988, the man responsible for the blast was not among the thousands being tracked by turkish authorities, having "newly (come) into turkey from syria," deputy prime minister numan kurtulmus said. this violence can be pinned on many groups, including forces loyal to syrian president bashar al-assad. yet isis has been behind many of the worst atrocities there and elsewhere in the region, a fact that's made the terror group a top target for civilized countries. a member of nato, turkey has increasingly been engaged in this fight -- including allowing the united states to launch strikes from incirlik air base in southern turkey and clamping down to curb more fighters from going through its territory to join the group. isis has responded by singling out turkey as a primary target, and a recent issue of its dabiq magazine had a cover showing president recep tayyip erdogan alongside u.s. president barack obama. and davutoglu stressed turkey wouldn't back down after tuesday's attack, urging his countrymen and people worldwide to unite against this threat. "we will continue our fight against terror with the same firm attitude," said the prime minister, insisting his country will continue working with the u.s.-led coalition to combat isis. "we will never compromise, not one single inch." 'i saw shocked tourists falling to the ground' tuesday's blast rattled sultanahmet square around 10:20 a.m. (3:20 a.m. et) and brought a rush of ambulances and security forces to an area that would have been heavily guarded on any day. "i've never heard such a loud explosion in my life," sener ozdemir, a 45-year-old shop owner, told turkey's semi-official anadolu news agency. "...just after the incident, i saw shocked tourists falling to the ground." targeting outsiders would be in line with attacks executed or inspired by isis, which has enemies everywhere and has proven willing to strike those who don't subscribe to its twisted, hard-line version of sharia law. turkey is a popular destination for germans, and germany's foreign ministry urged travelers in istanbul "to avoid public gatherings (and) tourist attractions for now" after the attack. the peruvian foreign ministry said in a statement that one of its citizens is in stable condition at a hospital after being wounded. a norwegian citizen was taken to a nearby hospital after the incident, foreign ministry spokesman frode andersen told cnn. "the type of monuments that are in sultanahmet square are the type that isis has been blowing up in syria," gohel told cnn. "it's seen as a place where you have a mesh of different entities. it's a real melting pot." the blast comes as turkey deals with multiple security threats -- from longstanding nemesis the kurdistan workers' party, or pkk, as well as isis, which has taken over swaths of syria and iraq on its quest to form a far-reaching caliphate. turkey's actions against isis, which first emerged out of iraq but now has its de facto capital in syria, are more recent but have nonetheless made it a target of that terrorist group. its military cooperation with the united states and other nato nations in particular has angered isis, said fadi hakura, associate fellow at chatham house. tuesday's blast -- if it's confirmed to be the terror group's work -- ups the ante for ankara, forcing it to step up its anti-isis fight even more, according to the asia-pacific foundation's gohel. "an attack like this is designed to create economic, political and social consequences," gohel told cnn. "turkey has to realize that the pipeline that feeds isis from turkey to syria has to now be cut off, because incidents like this are not one-offs. this could be part of a series of plots." and given that the dead aren't turkish, this attack directly impacts other countries as well. while it's not known if the bomber targeted any one nationality, the idea of terrorists targeting tourists is not new -- as illustrated in last march's attack on tunis' bardo museum and june's mass shooting at a tunisian beachfront hotel "we have a free society ... but there are people who want us harmed," said merkel, referring to the tunisia attacks and the more recent ones targeting civilians in paris. "... we will persevere."

istanbul: explosion by isis bomber kills at least 10

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it's an unusual move for a presidential candidate to pick a vice presidential running mate before winning his party's nomination <u+2013> even more unusual when his path to the nomination is blocked. but despite trailing trump, cruz went ahead and announced his choice. but will he hit a home run by naming former hewlett-packard ceo carly fiorina as his running mate <u+2013> or will he strike out? "carly isn't intimated by bullies," the texas senator declared wednesday. "over and over again, carly has shattered glass ceilings." "this is the fight of our time," fiorina said during wednesday's announcement. "and i believe ted cruz is the man to lead that fight. and i am prepared to stand by his side and give this everything i have, to restore the soul of our party, to defeat donald trump, to defeat hillary clinton, and to take our country back." fiorina tussled with trump early in the primary season for comments he made about her face. the gop front-runner dismissed this latest move. "a new relationship has started <u+2013> cruz and carly," the tycoon said. "cruz can't win. what's he doing picking a vice president?" trump had other things to talk about as well. he gave a major foreign policy speech in washington and said america's allies would have to start paying for their own defense. he also railed on the bush and obama administrations for not stopping persecution of christians in the middle east. "we have done nothing to help christians, nothing, and we should always be ashamed of that <u+2013> for that lack of action," he said. trump went from there to indiana where he got the endorsement of legendary indiana hooters basketball coach bobby knight, ahead of tuesday's primary. "if we win indiana, it's over," he said. "it's over. i'm not playing games with indiana." after indiana votes, clinton is hoping it's also over for bernie sanders. the delegate math is not with sanders, who rallied thousands of screaming fans at indiana university hours after he announced the layoffs of hundreds of campaign staffers. "next tuesday let's have the largest voter turnout in indiana history," sanders said. cruz is 400 delegates behind trump and while he expects to win indiana, if he doesn't, analysts say it's all over.

trump scoffs at cruz choosing a running mate: 'he can't win'

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iowa<u+2019>s caucuses are the embodiment of retail politics, typically rewarding candidates who build support<u+2014>and enthusiasm<u+2014>one county at a time. social conservatives have asserted their influence in recent years, with conservative rick santorum narrowly edging out the more centrist mitt romney in 2012. but the state isn<u+2019>t a monolith, and demographic characteristics may help handicap the republican race. data from the wall street journal/nbc news polls suggest a gop primary electorate defined by three broad lanes: a highly religious bloc that supports socially conservative candidates such as ted cruz and ben carson; a more moderate slice of voters with higher incomes and education levels who back <u+2018>establishment<u+2019> candidates like marco rubio and jeb bush; and a third constituency of donald trump supporters representing a secular, populist movement. viewed through that lens, here<u+2019>s a look at where each type of candidate might build a winning coalition in iowa. related article: how donald trump happened: the demographics behind his supporters <u+00bb>

the many faces of iowa<u+2019>s caucus voters

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trump gained 8 points since august to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in june. the new poll finds former neurosurgeon ben carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of republicans and republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors. former florida gov. jeb bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since august, and texas sen. ted cruz holds fourth place with 7%. former arkansas gov. mike huckabee and wisconsin gov. scott walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including florida sen. marco rubio, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since august. trump's gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign -- women and those with college degrees. while he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in august to 31% now), he's up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in august to 33% now. trump has also boosted his share of the vote among college graduates, increasing his support among those with degrees from 16% in august to 28% now. among those without degrees, he stands at 33%, just slightly higher than the 28% support he had in august. trump has also catapulted ahead of the rest of the field among republicans who back the tea party movement, from 27% support in august to 41% now. among that group in the new poll, carson follows with 21%, and cruz, another candidate with an anti-washington message, holds third with 11%. no other candidate tops 5% among tea partiers. carson's gains, meanwhile, have come chiefly among core partisans -- he's up 13 points among republicans and 11 points among conservatives -- and he runs closest to trump among white evangelicals (32% back trump, 28% carson), a key voting bloc within the republican primary electorate. carson also has enthusiasm at his side. republicans are more than twice as likely to say they would be enthusiastic with carson at the top of the ticket than if rubio, cruz, walker or bush led the gop into 2016, and while he and trump are about even in enthusiasm (43% would be enthusiastic if carson got the nod, 40% if trump did), fewer say they would be disappointed if carson emerged the victor (20% would be dissatisfied or upset if carson won, 32% if trump did). still, most republican voters (51%) think trump is most likely to emerge as the gop winner, well ahead of the 19% who think bush will top the party ticket and 11% who think carson will. in a july poll, 14% of republican voters said they thought walker was most likely to wind up the winner, in the new poll, that figure stands at just 1%. support for the "outsider" contingent of trump, carson and to some extent businesswoman carly fiorina (who hasn't built on her post-debate boomlet in this poll, she has just 3% support) rests more on their positions on the issues than their experience outside of washington. among those backing one of those three candidates without experience in elective office, 75% say they back them because of their views on the issues, 16% because of their on-the-job experience and 7% because they dislike the other candidates. among those backing candidates who have previously been elected to office, 34% say their experience is the main draw, 51% issue positions, and 14% say it's due to dislike of the other candidates. "so, ladies and gentlemen, i am officially running for president of the united states, and we are going to make our country great again," trump told the crowd at his announcement. businessman donald trump announced june 16 at his trump tower in new york city that he is seeking the republican presidential nomination. this ends more than two decades of flirting with the idea of running for the white house."so, ladies and gentlemen, i am officially running for president of the united states, and we are going to make our country great again," trump told the crowd at his announcement. "these are all of our stories," cruz told the audience at liberty university in virginia. "these are who we are as americans. and yet for so many americans, the promise of america seems more and more distant." sen. ted cruz of texas has made a name for himself in the senate, solidifying his brand as a conservative firebrand willing to take on the gop's establishment. he announced he was seeking the republican presidential nomination in a speech on march 23."these are all of our stories," cruz told the audience at liberty university in virginia. "these are who we are as americans. and yet for so many americans, the promise of america seems more and more distant." ohio gov. john kasich joined the republican field july 21 as he formally announced his white house bid. "i am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support ... because i have decided to run for president of the united states," kasich told his kickoff rally at the ohio state university. "everyday americans need a champion, and i want to be that champion -- so you can do more than just get by -- you can get ahead. and stay ahead," she said in her announcement video. "because when families are strong, america is strong. so i'm hitting the road to earn your vote, because it's your time. and i hope you'll join me on this journey." hillary clinton launched her presidential bid on april 12 through a video message on social media. the former first lady, senator and secretary of state is considered the front-runner among possible democratic candidates."everyday americans need a champion, and i want to be that champion -- so you can do more than just get by -- you can get ahead. and stay ahead," she said in her announcement video. "because when families are strong, america is strong. so i'm hitting the road to earn your vote, because it's your time. and i hope you'll join me on this journey." , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, announced his run in an email to supporters on april 30. he has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans to take back control of the government from billionaires. "this great nation and its government belong to all of the people and not to a handful of billionaires, their super pacs and their lobbyists," sanders said at a rally in vermont on may 26. sen. bernie sanders , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, announced his run in an email to supporters on april 30. he has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans to take back control of the government from billionaires."this great nation and its government belong to all of the people and not to a handful of billionaires, their super pacs and their lobbyists," sanders said at a rally in vermont on may 26. although bush's support for the nomination has dipped only slightly since the august poll, there are few positive signs for a man once seen as the front-runner for the nomination. the 19% who think he's most likely to win the party's nomination is down from 31% in july. nearly half of republicans (47%) say they would be dissatisfied or upset should he win the nomination, and just 16% say they would be enthusiastic about his candidacy if he did win. and his push to be the candidate of economic growth hasn't resonated: just 7% who call the economy an extremely important issue say they would back him for the republican nomination. as trump and carson have gained, republican voters have begun to gain enthusiasm for the coming presidential election. while 28% described themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" about the election in july and august, that's now climbed to 34%, while deep enthusiasm among democrats has dipped from 33% to 28%. trump's growth in the field has also come alongside an increase in attention to the issue of illegal immigration. a majority of republicans now call the issue extremely important to their vote for president, 51% now call it extremely important, up from 39% in a june cnn/orc poll. among that group, trump holds a wide lead, with 42% support compared with 17% for carson, 10% for cruz, 9% for bush and 5% for walker. the cnn/orc poll was conducted by telephone september 4-8 among a random national sample of 1,012 adults. this sample included 930 interviews with registered voters, 474 of whom were self-identified republicans or republican-leaning independents. for results among all registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. among republican voters, it is plus or minus 4.5 points.

donald trump tops 30% in /orc poll

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the presidential campaigns of texas sen. ted cruz and ohio gov. john kasich announced late sunday that they were coordinating their efforts in three upcoming primary states in an extraordinary attempt to prevent republican front-runner donald trump from clinching the gop nomination before this summer's convention. in a pair of simultaneously released statements, the campaigns announced that kasich would pull out of indiana to give cruz "a clear path" ahead of that state's winner-take-all primary may 3, while the cruz campaign will "clear the path" for kasich in oregon, which votes may 17, and new mexico, which votes june 7. "having donald trump at the top of the ticket in november would be a sure disaster for republicans," cruz's campaign manager, jeff roe, said. "to ensure that we nominate a republican who can unify the republican party and win in november, our campaign will focus its time and resources in indiana and in turn clear the path for gov. kasich to compete in oregon and new mexico, and we would hope that allies of both campaigns would follow our lead." the arrangement marks a sharp reversal for cruz's team, which aggressively opposed the idea of a coordinated anti-trump effort as recently as late last week. yet it underscores a bleak reality for the billionaire businessman's republican foes: time is running out to stop him. a statement from the trump campaign called the move "a horrible act of desperation from two campaigns who have horribly failed." the kasich campaign confirmed to fox news that it had canceled two indiana campaign events scheduled for tuesday.<u+00a0>as recently as three days ago kasich's campaign announced investments in indiana, including the opening of two offices and the creation of a campaign leadership team. campaign manager john weaver said in his statement that the kasich team hoped to perform well in oregon and new mexico, which weaver said were "structurally similar" to northeastern states where kasich performed well earlier in the cycle. "our goal is to have an open convention in cleveland," weaver added, "where we are confident a candidate capable of uniting the party and winning in november will emerge as the nominee." the announcement came less than 48 hours before voting begins across five northeastern states where the new york billionaire is poised to add to his already overwhelming delegate lead. trump campaigned sunday in maryland, which will vote on tuesday along with rhode island, connecticut, pennsylvania and delaware. trump needs 1,237 delegates to win the republican nomination. if he falls short, the national republican gathering in july will evolve into a rare contested convention. at a rally in hagerstown, md., trump stressed repeatedly that he expects to win the 1,237 delegates needed in the first round of voting to stave off a contested convention. "i only care about the first. we're not going for the second and third and fourth and fifth," said trump. even before the plan was announced, cruz had all but abandoned the northeastern states in favor of indiana, which holds its primary on may 3. both cruz and kasich had cast the state as a critical turning point. "keeping trump from winning a plurality in indiana is critical to keeping him under 1,237 bound delegates before cleveland," kasich's campaign said sunday. "we are very comfortable with our delegate position in indiana already, and given the current dynamics of the primary there, we will shift our campaign's resources west and give the cruz campaign a clear path in indiana." indiana will award 57 delegates to the winner of its primary. oregon and new mexico have 28 and 24 proportionately awarded delegates at stake, respectively. fox news' dan gallo and the associated press contributed to this report.

cruz, kasich campaign announce collaboration to deny trump delegates

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president obama doubled down friday on his push to shutter the guantanamo bay prison camp, calling it a magnet for <u+201c>jihadi recruitment<u+201d> and vowing to present his closure plan to congress -- while keeping his cards close to the vest on whether he<u+2019>d try to use executive action to finish the job. the president addressed his plans at a year-end press conference at the white house, before heading to hawaii for his annual family vacation. with the guantanamo push standing as a major piece of unfinished business going into his final year in office, obama was asked about his strategy. obama said he<u+2019>ll present congress with his plan, and argued that the camp remains one of the <u+201c>key magnets for jihadi recruitment.<u+201d> <u+201c>for us to close it is part of our counterterrorism strategy,<u+201d> obama said. as he spoke to the press, his defense department is said to be moving a plan to potentially transfer another 17 inmates out of the facility <u+2013> part of the effort to reduce the number of detainees at the camp as much as possible. the president, though, faces deep resistance from some in congress over the final closure plan, and particularly the expectation that the administration will try to bring any inmates who cannot be transferred or released elsewhere to the u.s. mainland. obama would not say definitively friday if he<u+2019>d use executive action should congress continue to block him <u+2013> but suggested it<u+2019>s an option on the table. <u+201c>we will wait until congress has definitely said no to a well-thought-out plan with numbers attached to it, before we say anything definitive about my executive authority here,<u+201d> obama said. more broadly, obama vowed friday not to fade in the background but instead use his remaining months to push longstanding goals to fruition. "in 2016, i'm going to leave it all out on the field," he said. <u+201c>with the terror threat as great as it<u+2019>s been since 9/11 and isis gaining ground, president obama<u+2019>s self-serving victory lap looks incredibly out of touch,<u+201d> rnc chairman reince priebus said in a statement. <u+201c>two weeks on the golf course isn<u+2019>t going to get us any closer to defeating radical islamic terrorism or keeping our country safe from another attack.<u+201d> the president, though, portrayed 2015 as one of significant progress for his agenda, pointing to diplomacy with iran and cuba and an asia-pacific trade agreement as big wins for his administration. he also praised a supreme court ruling legalizing gay marriage and a congressional rewrite of the no child left behind law as further victories for causes he's made central to his presidency. still, he said, he plans to do much more in 2016. "i said at the beginning of this year that interesting stuff happens in the fourth quarter -- and we are only halfway through," obama said. calling attention to his signature legislative achievement, obama announced that 6 million people had signed up for health care so far this year under the affordable care act, a surge that officials say illustrates the program's durability. after the news conference, obama was to depart for san bernardino, california, where he planned to meet with families of the 14 victims of the terror attack. he then will fly to hawaii to spend christmas and new year's with his family. obama has vacationed in hawaii every year since taking office. obama on friday, after spending the week trying to reassure the public about security measures in place following the san bernardino and paris terror attacks, also vowed to keep hitting the islamic state. <u+201c>our air campaign will continue to hit isil harder than ever,<u+201d> he said. at the same time, he acknowledged difficulties in balancing civil liberties against security needs <u+2013> when asked about complaints security officials are not adequately screening social media of visa seekers, after it emerged one of the california attackers had made jihadist comments online. obama stressed that private communications are <u+201c>harder to discern.<u+201d> he said the government would be <u+201c>engaging with the high-tech community<u+201d> to figure out a better way to track suspected terrorists. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to have to continue to balance our needs for security with people<u+2019>s legitimate concerns about privacy,<u+201d> he said. the associated press contributed to this report.

obama digs in on plan to close guantanamo prison camp

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this week, katharine zaleski confessed her sins against motherhood on<u+00a0>fortune, and it went viral. zaleski is now the cofounder and president of powertofly, a firm that works to match women with flexible jobs. but before that, she was working in media, at the washington post and huffington post. her column no doubt did well for the sheer shock value. (she recounts how she said nothing when an editor proposed firing someone "before she 'got pregnant.'") but another reason it resonates so strongly could be that the worst of zaleski's actions line up with emerging research around the ways women <u+2014> especially moms <u+2014> are discriminated against in the workplace. women have felt this for years. but the research, and now the confessions, are catching up. zaleski recounts a few of her worst transgressions: 1. i secretly rolled my eyes at a mother who couldn<u+2019>t make it to last minute drinks with me and my team. i questioned her "commitment" even though she arrived two hours earlier to work than me and my hungover colleagues the next day. 2. i didn<u+2019>t disagree when another female editor said we should hurry up and fire another woman before she "got pregnant." 3. i sat in a job interview where a male boss grilled a mother of three and asked her, "how in the world are you going to be able to commit to this job and all your kids at the same time?" i didn<u+2019>t give her any visual encouragement when the mother <u+2013> who was a top cable news producer at the time <u+2013> looked at him and said, "believe it or not, i like being away from my kids during the workday<u+2026> just like you." 4. i scheduled last minute meetings at 4:30 pm all of the time. it didn<u+2019>t dawn on me that parents might need to pick up their kids at daycare. i was obsessed with the idea of showing my commitment to the job by staying in the office "late" even though i wouldn<u+2019>t start working until 10:30 am while parents would come in at 8:30 am. it's easy to see why the column went viral: it's not only enraging, but it's also a conversion story <u+2014> once zaleski had a baby herself, the scales fell from her eyes and she realized the error of her ways. we're very good at honoring motherhood. but we seem to have trouble when moms need a paycheck or have career aspirations. she also gets into some of the very issues researchers have begun uncovering. for example, many working moms know that "opting out" isn't always opting out. zaleski's story echoes an eye-opening december study of harvard business school alums. many of those high-achieving women had stopped working, not because they wanted to be stay-at-home moms but because the working world had started to shun them. some women get subtle messages, as harvard's researchers write...and as zaleski shows, some women get interviewers asking them how they'll commit to a job and kids at the same time. a lack of flexibility for parents can also show up in women's paychecks. for example, zaleski expected parents to conform to a non-parent schedule, coming to 4:30 pm meetings. that kind of rigidity can prevent women from keeping up with men. harvard economist<u+00a0>claudia goldin found in a 2014 study that flexibility in hours plays a huge part in creating more pay equality between men and women. as she wrote, "the gender gap in pay would be considerably reduced and might vanish altogether if firms did not have an incentive to disproportionately reward individuals who labored long hours and worked particular hours." it's true that zaleski and harvard business school alums are breathing some rarefied air. but even the most basic kind of flexibility is unavailable to many american workers. according to<u+00a0>the white house, only 39 percent of us workers report having access to paid family leave for the birth of a child. even more shockingly, employers say only 11 percent of workers are covered, meaning some employers may be offering informal arrangements. it's true that not all bias in the workplace is as deliberate as that in zaleski's former world <u+2014> indeed, a lot of it may be subconscious. but it reflects a twisted attitude <u+2014> that our society values motherhood but not the mothers themselves. in cards, poems, songs, movies, books, even commercials, we are very good at honoring mothers for being moms. what we seem to have trouble with is when those moms need to earn money or want to advance their careers.

here's how moms get pushed out of the workforce

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killing obama administration rules, dismantling obamacare and pushing through tax reform are on the early to-do list.

five takeaways from the gop debate

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president<u+00a0>barack obama<u+00a0>is ramping up efforts to convince individual house members to grant him fast-track authority to negotiate trade deals, focusing his efforts on a dwindling group of undecided democratic lawmakers. but democrats who have already backed the deal publicly said these members need to be convinced they are not trading away their own political futures for a vote on fast-track. potentially decisive are moderate, pro-growth members of the new democrat coalition. its vice-chair, rep.<u+00a0>jim himes<u+00a0>(d., conn.), spoke as recently as monday to the president, after fielding calls from the white house during last week<u+2019>s recess as well.

white house makes trade pitch, with focus on moderates

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a verdict in 2017 could have sweeping consequences for tech startups.

foster friess chides rand paul in not-so-private email

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