id
int64 28.1k
30.8k
| title
stringlengths 18
192
| description
stringlengths 0
5.49k
| resolution
stringclasses 29
values | close
stringlengths 20
20
| open
stringlengths 20
20
| status
stringclasses 1
value | __index_level_0__
int64 23
696
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29,775 |
Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024?
|
From the resolution source: "The Vail snow report for Nov 01 is a 0" base depth with 0 of 33 lifts open. Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates."
|
yes
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 330 |
29,774 |
Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?
|
As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490
|
yes
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 331 |
29,773 |
Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
|
no
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 332 |
29,772 |
Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
|
annulled
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 333 |
29,771 |
Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
|
no
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 334 |
29,744 |
Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?
|
The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.
|
yes
|
2024-11-21T11:45:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 336 |
29,743 |
Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?
|
[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.
[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.
|
yes
|
2024-12-11T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 337 |
29,729 |
Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?
|
In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)
|
yes
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 341 |
29,728 |
Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
|
no
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 342 |
29,716 |
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
|
yes
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 354 |
29,715 |
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
|
no
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 355 |
29,714 |
Will the number of active US drilling rigs exceed 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
|
no
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 356 |
29,696 |
What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
|
Orange
|
2024-12-05T14:00:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 357 |
29,657 |
Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?
|
The [2017 parliamentary elections in Iceland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Icelandic_parliamentary_election) resulted in an unusual governing coalition of the left-wing [Left-Green Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-Green_Movement), the centre [Progressive Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_(Iceland)), and the centre-right [Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Party_(Iceland)). Despite the Independence Party being the largest party in the coalition, the new prime minister was [Katrín Jakobsdóttir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katr%C3%ADn_Jakobsd%C3%B3ttir), the chairperson of the Left-Green Movement.
In [2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Icelandic_parliamentary_election), the three-party coalition maintained its majority and remained governmend under the lead of Katrín Jakobsdóttir. However, Jakobsdóttir resigned in April 2024 to contest the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Icelandic_presidential_election), which she lost. She was succeeded as prime minister by [Bjarni Benediktsson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bjarni_Benediktsson_(born_1970)), the leader of the Independence Party, who had previously been the prime minister in 2017 and who was the Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs of the current government.
On 13 October, Benediktsson [announced](https://apnews.com/article/iceland-snap-election-coalition-government-9d170f37de3228506de93444668c416a) that the government had collapsed due to disputes over foreign policy, asylum seekers, and energy, prompting him to call for new elections and ask President Halla Tómasdóttir the next day to dissolve the Althingi and set the elections for 30 November.
|
Social Democratic Alliance
|
2024-12-14T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-09T18:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 362 |
29,653 |
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-08T22:19:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 363 |
29,652 |
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-08T22:24:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 364 |
29,651 |
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-08T22:25:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 365 |
29,648 |
Will Matt Eberflus cease to be the Chicago Bears head coach before January 1, 2025?
|
Yahoo Sports: [Bears fans are once again fed up with Matt Eberflus, coaching staff](https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-fans-once-again-fed-222243082.html)
|
yes
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 368 |
29,647 |
On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?
|
As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
|
yes
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 369 |
29,641 |
Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
yes
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 375 |
29,640 |
Will 10 or 11 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 376 |
29,639 |
Will 8 or 9 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 377 |
29,638 |
Will 6 or 7 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 378 |
29,637 |
Will 4 or 5 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 379 |
29,636 |
Will 0-3 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 380 |
29,635 |
Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?
|
The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.
As of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.
The match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played.
In chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.
The time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.
|
no
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 381 |
29,579 |
How many upvotes will the "Top" Sidechat post of the week on Brown have by 5pm on 11/19?
|
Brown Sidechat
|
900-999
|
2024-11-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-07T23:54:00Z
|
resolved
| 383 |
29,578 |
How many total points will the top forecaster on our leaderboard have by 5:01pm on 11/19?
|
We will look at the leaderboard.
|
1036.297
|
2024-11-19T22:01:00Z
|
2024-11-07T23:51:00Z
|
resolved
| 384 |
29,576 |
How many students will pre-register for the MWF 9am-9:50am APMA 1650: Statistical Inference I section with Sarah Brauner by the end of pre-registration (5pm, 11/19)?
|
....
|
210.0
|
2024-11-19T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-07T23:33:00Z
|
resolved
| 386 |
29,569 |
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for October 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
|
no
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 388 |
29,568 |
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for October 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
|
no
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 389 |
29,567 |
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for October 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
|
yes
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 390 |
29,566 |
Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for October 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
|
no
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 391 |
29,564 |
Will Luke Combs win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
|
no
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 393 |
29,563 |
Will Astro Bot win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
|
[Voting Is Now Open in the 42nd Golden Joystick Awards](https://www.gamespress.com/Voting-Is-Now-Open-in-the-42nd-Golden-Joystick-Awards)
|
yes
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 394 |
29,562 |
Will John Thune succeed Mitch McConnell as Republican Leader of the US Senate?
|
At the time of this question, Senate Minority Whip John Thune is widely considered the frontrunner to succeed Mitch McConnell. See e.g., Punchbowl News: [Thune hits the trail for GOP candidates — and his leadership bid](https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/thune-campaigns-for-leadership-bid-in-indiana/)
|
yes
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 395 |
29,561 |
Will either major party candidate in California’s 13th Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?
|
In the 2022 midterms, CA-13 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with Democrat Adam Gray [not conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/john-duarte-house-election-california-republican/index.html) to Republican John Duarte until December 3, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)
|
no
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 396 |
29,558 |
Will the Jackson Hole ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 29, 2024?
|
From the resolution source: "Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, located in western Wyoming’s Teton Village, is situated just 15 miles from the Jackson Hole Airport and Grand Teton National Park"
|
yes
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 399 |
29,510 |
Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2025?
|
On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.
The next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).
>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.
>"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages," Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.
>"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians," he added.
The [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)
> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.
> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.
On November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:
> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court," Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.
> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.
|
yes
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 406 |
29,509 |
Before December 1, 2024, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?
|
Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html).
|
annulled
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 407 |
29,506 |
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?
|
[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.
In September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.
For further context please see:
- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)
- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)
- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)
|
yes
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 410 |
29,505 |
Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?
|
At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)
|
yes
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 411 |
29,504 |
Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?
|
Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; the two-legged semifinals for the current tournament take place between October 22nd and 30th, with the single-match final taking place on November 30 at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
|
no
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 412 |
29,472 |
Will the USDA-posted recall of Hickory Hollow's ready-to-eat jerky products be closed before December 1, 2024?
|
According to the Alabama Media Group on [September 4, 2024](https://www.al.com/life/2024/09/6229-pounds-of-jerky-from-alabama-company-recalled.html), "Ready-to-eat jerky products from an Alabama-based company are being recalled. The products were shipped to retail locations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The products were also sold on the internet. So far, there have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products, according to the USDA. Anyone concerned about a reaction should contact a healthcare provider."
|
no
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 416 |
29,470 |
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for October 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 418 |
29,469 |
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for October 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 419 |
29,468 |
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.2M for October 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 420 |
29,467 |
Will Nvidia earnings for Q3 2024 exceed $0.74 per share?
|
Consensus earnings estimates are for an average of $0.74 per share, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/).
|
yes
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 421 |
29,465 |
Will US airline passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?
|
The Thanksgiving season is one of the busiest times of the year for travel, and 2024 [is expected](https://www.crossroadstoday.com/lifestyle/the-busiest-travel-days-around-thanksgiving/article_1dc81c6f-58c2-543c-a858-ca738283d6f1.html) to break records..
|
yes
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 423 |
29,463 |
Will the CDC report more than 80% of the tested influenza sequences as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the week ending Dec 21, 2024?
|
Influenza pandemics typically [come from](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2928832/) Influenza A, particularly from a sub-type against which much of the human population lacks much immunity. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses-types.html):
>Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are related to the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus that emerged in the spring of 2009 and caused a flu pandemic ([CDC 2009 H1N1 Flu website](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/)). These viruses, scientifically called the "A(H1N1)pdm09 virus," and more generally called "2009 H1N1," have continued to circulate seasonally since then and have undergone genetic changes and changes to their [antigenic properties](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/professionals/antigenic.htm) (i.e., the properties of the virus that affect immunity).
>Influenza A(H3N2) viruses also change both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate.
For the 2024-25 flu season, the [trivalent](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/trivalent-vaccines-2024-2025.html) (three-component) vaccine will target two influenza A and one influenza B virus. During the 2023-24 season, 69.2% of positive specimens [were](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) influenza A, substantially similar to the 69.1% for the week ended ending May 4, 2024, at which time 97% of all positive cases that would be registered for the season had been tested. Among the 25,390 influenza-associated hospitalizations for the season, a disproportionate number (84.6%) were associated with influenza A, as compared with with 14.8% associated with influenza B.
According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/overview/index.html):
>All public health and clinical laboratories report each week to CDC the total number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive for influenza viruses, along with age or age group of the person, if available. CDC presents data from clinical laboratories that include the weekly total number of specimens tested for influenza, the number of positive influenza tests, and the percent positive by influenza virus type.
>Influenza surveillance data are aggregated according to the week the event (e.g., positive laboratory test, outpatient visit, death) occurred. The week starts on Sunday and ends on the following Saturday. Each surveillance participant is requested to report its data to CDC by Tuesday afternoon of the following week. The data are then downloaded, compiled, and analyzed at CDC. [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) and [FluView Interactive](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm) are updated weekly on Fridays.
Since the pandemic, the numbers have been as follows:
### FluView Week 18 (beginning of May) - Influenza A %
| Season | Influenza A % |
|------------|---------------|
| 2023-24 | 69.1% |
| 2022-23 | 98.2% |
| 2021-22 | 98.4% |
Looking at a wider sweep of history, during the 25 years through the 2023-24 season, 11 had two waves of influenza activity. Among those 11 seasons, 8 of them [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) their second wave come from influenza B.
|
yes
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 425 |
29,461 |
Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Nov 23, 2024 be more than 2,000?
|
According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year.
Over the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).
The CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the "gold standard" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:
>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection
>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery
|
yes
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 427 |
29,419 |
Will Oregon voters approve Measure 118, which would initiate a universal basic income in the state, funded by corporate tax?
|
Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 118, Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate for Residents Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_118,_Corporate_Tax_Revenue_Rebate_for_Residents_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 433 |
29,418 |
Will Donald Trump Lose in New York State by under 6.0 points in the 2024 election?
|
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, won by 6.39 points over her Republican opponent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential popular vote in NYS by 23.1 points. On October 27, 2024, Donald Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden.
|
no
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 434 |
29,416 |
Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before December 1, 2025?
|
BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast "the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps."
On the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/):
>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!
>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!
<img src="https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg" />
However, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, "[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)":
>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.
>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-04T16:53:00Z
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 436 |
29,402 |
How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
|
12-15
|
2024-11-22T19:00:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 439 |
29,400 |
Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?
|
Historically, winners of important elections are congratulated by foreign leaders as a form of diplomatic courtesy. However, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and both China and Russia have raised questions about whether their respective leaders will maintain this tradition in 2024. After the 2020 U.S. election, for instance, Xi [congratulated Joe Biden](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/politics/xi-jinping-joe-biden-congratulations/index.html) only after results were more widely accepted, while Putin [did so](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55318269) only after the Electoral College vote. The timing of congratulatory messages might reflect each leader's stance on U.S. relations.
|
yes
|
2024-11-07T19:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 440 |
29,360 |
In Nebraska will Initiative 439, the Right to Abortion Initiative, receive more votes than Initiative 434, the Prohibit Abortions After the 1st Trimester Amendment?
|
Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 434, Prohibit Abortions After the First Trimester Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska_Initiative_434,_Prohibit_Abortions_After_the_First_Trimester_Amendment_(2024)); Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 439, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska_Initiative_439,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 444 |
29,359 |
Will the USDA-posted recall of Perdue Foods LLC's Frozen, Ready-To-Eat Chicken Breast Nugget and Tender Products be closed before November 16, 2024?
|
According to NBC News on [August 17, 2024](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/perdue-recalls-frozen-ready-eat-chicken-nuggets-tenders-possible-metal-rcna167004), "'FSIS is concerned that some product may be in consumers’ freezers,' the agency said. 'Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.' Perdue Foods LLC said in a news release that 'a foreign material was identified in a limited number of consumer packages.' FSIS said metal was found in the products and was discovered after consumer complaints about metal wire embedded in the food. 'We determined the material to be a very thin strand of metal wire that was inadvertently introduced into the manufacturing process,' said Jeff Shaw, Perdue’s senior vice president of food safety and quality. 'Out of an abundance of caution, we decided to voluntarily recall all of these packages of products.' There have been no confirmed reports of illness or injury, FSIS and Perdue said."
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 445 |
29,357 |
Will Apple earnings for Q3 2024 exceed $1.60 per share?
|
Consensus earnings estimates are for an average of $1.60 per share, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/analysis/).
|
annulled
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 447 |
29,356 |
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wracking match. The match featured 6 decisive classical games over the board, more than all such matches since 1996, and was decided in the last minutes of the fourth tie-break game.
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 448 |
29,355 |
Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?
|
Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!
Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.
----
This question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:
> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=
The standard allows for many optional components, but common components are
- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble
- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)
- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)
- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)
- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)
- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)
- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)
- runway information, starting with R
- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)
But! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's "-SN" for "light snow".
Here are some other examples of reports indicating snow:
> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`
RESN means "recent snow"
> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=
SG means "snow grains"
> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=
-SHSN means "light snow shower"
For decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.
|
no
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 449 |
29,353 |
Will the US State Department approve more than 20 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?
|
The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:
| Month | Number |
|-----------------|--------|
| October 2024 | 9 |
| September 2024 | 12 |
| August 2024 | 22 |
| July 2024 | 4 |
| June 2024 | 7 |
| May 2024 | 10 |
| April 2024 | 7 |
| March 2024 | 10 |
| February 2024 | 8 |
| January 2024 | 7 |
| December 2023 | 17 |
| November 2023 | 5 |
| October 2023 | 7 |
| September 2023 | 7 |
| August 2023 | 5 |
| July 2023 | 4 |
| June 2023 | 12 |
| May 2023 | 7 |
| April 2023 | 6 |
| March 2023 | 10 |
| February 2023 | 5 |
| December 2022 | 6 |
| November 2022 | 8 |
| October 2022 | 3 |
| September 2022 | 5 |
| August 2022 | 7 |
| July 2022 | 13 |
| June 2022 | 3 |
| May 2022 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 6 |
| March 2022 | 4 |
| February 2022 | 9 |
| January 2022 | 5 |
| December 2021 | 5 |
| November 2021 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 1 |
| September 2021 | 2 |
| August 2021 | 8 |
| July 2021 | 3 |
| June 2021 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 4 |
| March 2021 | 6 |
| February 2021 | 5 |
| December 2020 | 15 |
| November 2020 | 6 |
| October 2020 | 11 |
| September 2020 | 9 |
| August 2020 | 2 |
| July 2020 | 15 |
| June 2020 | 2 |
| May 2020 | 7 |
| April 2020 | 8 |
| March 2020 | 4 |
| February 2020 | 5 |
| January 2020 | 2 |
| December 2019 | 1 |
| November 2019 | 5 |
| October 2019 | 8 |
| September 2019 | 5 |
The average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 451 |
29,352 |
Will the US State Department approve more than 15 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?
|
The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:
| Month | Number |
|-----------------|--------|
| October 2024 | 9 |
| September 2024 | 12 |
| August 2024 | 22 |
| July 2024 | 4 |
| June 2024 | 7 |
| May 2024 | 10 |
| April 2024 | 7 |
| March 2024 | 10 |
| February 2024 | 8 |
| January 2024 | 7 |
| December 2023 | 17 |
| November 2023 | 5 |
| October 2023 | 7 |
| September 2023 | 7 |
| August 2023 | 5 |
| July 2023 | 4 |
| June 2023 | 12 |
| May 2023 | 7 |
| April 2023 | 6 |
| March 2023 | 10 |
| February 2023 | 5 |
| December 2022 | 6 |
| November 2022 | 8 |
| October 2022 | 3 |
| September 2022 | 5 |
| August 2022 | 7 |
| July 2022 | 13 |
| June 2022 | 3 |
| May 2022 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 6 |
| March 2022 | 4 |
| February 2022 | 9 |
| January 2022 | 5 |
| December 2021 | 5 |
| November 2021 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 1 |
| September 2021 | 2 |
| August 2021 | 8 |
| July 2021 | 3 |
| June 2021 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 4 |
| March 2021 | 6 |
| February 2021 | 5 |
| December 2020 | 15 |
| November 2020 | 6 |
| October 2020 | 11 |
| September 2020 | 9 |
| August 2020 | 2 |
| July 2020 | 15 |
| June 2020 | 2 |
| May 2020 | 7 |
| April 2020 | 8 |
| March 2020 | 4 |
| February 2020 | 5 |
| January 2020 | 2 |
| December 2019 | 1 |
| November 2019 | 5 |
| October 2019 | 8 |
| September 2019 | 5 |
The average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.
|
annulled
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 452 |
29,351 |
Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 453 |
29,350 |
Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 454 |
29,349 |
Will it rain more than 100mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
|
yes
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 455 |
29,348 |
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
|
Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems.
Proposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient.
Generally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it.
The conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.
In 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition.
Sources:
https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/
https://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/
|
no
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 456 |
29,311 |
Will at least three of the five major networks declare a winner in the upcoming US presidential election by noon ET on Nov. 6?
|
Every election from 2004 to 2016 was called before noon on the day after the election. In 2020, it took four days before most networks certified Joe Biden's victory.
|
yes
|
2024-11-05T01:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T16:00:00Z
|
resolved
| 459 |
29,306 |
Will North Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [North Dakota Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_5,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 464 |
29,305 |
Will Donald Trump outperform Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee in the 2024 election?
|
[Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 465 |
29,304 |
Will Kalshi be #1 in the free apps in the Apple App Store on November 5, 2024?
|
On October 28, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1851102973738271088), "Alright - this is getting crazy.
Raise your hand if you want a market on who will be #1 in the entire App Store by Nov 5th?"
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 466 |
29,303 |
Will Donald Trump sweep all 7 battleground states in the 2024 election?
|
Newsweek: [Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-1971095)
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 467 |
29,302 |
Will Hawaii voters approve the constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2024, which would repeal the state's ban on same-sex marriage?
|
Ballotpedia: [Hawaii Remove Legislature Authority to Limit Marriage to Opposite-Sex Couples Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii_Remove_Legislature_Authority_to_Limit_Marriage_to_Opposite-Sex_Couples_Amendment_(2024))
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 468 |
29,301 |
Will South Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 29, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Initiated Measure 29, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_29,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 469 |
29,300 |
Will Democratic Congressman Don Davis be re-elected in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [North Carolina's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 470 |
29,299 |
Will Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito be re-elected in New York's 4th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [New York's 4th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
|
no
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 471 |
29,298 |
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah win 55% or more of the vote in the first round of the Namibian presidential election?
|
Wikipedia: [2024 Namibian general election
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Namibian_general_election)
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 472 |
29,297 |
Will Missouri voters approve Missouri Amendment 7, which would prohibit ranked-choice voting in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Missouri Amendment 7, Require Citizenship to Vote and Prohibit Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_7,_Require_Citizenship_to_Vote_and_Prohibit_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Amendment_(2024))
|
yes
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 473 |
29,258 |
Will Massachusetts voters approve Question 4, which would legalize psychedelic substances for adults 21 years old and older?
|
Ballotpedia: [Massachusetts Question 4, Legalization and Regulation of Psychedelic Substances Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Question_4,_Legalization_and_Regulation_of_Psychedelic_Substances_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 476 |
29,257 |
Will Florida voters approve Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adults 21 years old and older?
|
Ballotpedia: [Florida Amendment 3, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_3,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 477 |
29,256 |
Will Ohio voters approve Ohio Issue 1, which seeks to end gerrymandering in the state?
|
Wikipedia: [2024 Ohio Issue 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1)
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 478 |
29,255 |
Will Democrats be ahead in the generic ballot on Election Day, according to 538?
|
Pew: [Why The Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2002/10/01/why-the-generic-ballot-test/)
|
yes
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 479 |
29,254 |
Will Democratic Congressman Jared Golden be re-elected in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [Maine's 2nd Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
|
yes
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 480 |
29,253 |
Will Republican Congressman John Duarte be re-elected in California's 13th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [California's 13th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_13th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 481 |
29,252 |
Will Oregon voters approve Oregon Measure 117, which would establish ranked-choice voting in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 117, Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_117,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_for_Federal_and_State_Elections_Measure_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 482 |
29,251 |
Will Alaska voters approve Alaska Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting and nonpartisan primaries in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Repeal Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Ballot_Measure_2,_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2024))
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 483 |
29,249 |
Will election night 2024 end without Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, or Nate Cohn calling the 2024 presidential election?
|
All three elections analysts are known for calling elections before official media sources such as the AP. For previous AP calls please see: [Here’s when past presidential elections were called](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954203-heres-when-past-presidential-elections-were-called/)
|
no
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 485 |
29,248 |
Will Donald Trump says "win," "won," or "winner" on election night?
|
On election night 2020, Donald Trump said the word "won" 15 times; see transcript [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM).
|
yes
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 486 |
29,211 |
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?
|
Joe Rogan endorsed RFK Jr. following RFK Jr.'s appearance on the Rogan podcast. There are [reports](https://www.essentiallysports.com/ufc-mma-news-joe-rogan-finally-admits-his-curiosity-for-donald-trump-podcast-amid-demand-for-jre-episode/) that Trump may appear on the Rogan podcast, amid increasing praise from Rogan in recent weeks, combined with more criticism for Kamala Harris.
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 498 |
29,210 |
In the 2024 US elections, will the party winning the White House differ from the party winning the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
|
no
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 499 |
29,209 |
In the 2024 US elections, will Republicans win both the White House and the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 500 |
29,208 |
In the 2024 US elections, will Democrats win both the White House and the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
|
no
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 501 |
29,206 |
Will Donald Trump outperform Rick Scott in Florida in the 2024 election?
|
[Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 503 |
29,205 |
Will Kamala Harris win New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Maine in the 2024 election?
|
On journalist Mark Halperin's political discussion show [Two-Way on October 25, 2024](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE-GYg9lD5Y), the panel mentioned that the biggest possible states for a Trump upset were New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia.
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 504 |
29,204 |
Will the same presidential candidate win Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 election?
|
[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 505 |
29,203 |
Will Donald Trump win Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 election?
|
[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
|
yes
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 506 |
29,200 |
Will a woman be named the Time Person of the Year for 2024?
|
Wikipedia: [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year)
|
no
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 509 |
29,177 |
Will country music singer/songwriter Riley Green endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?
|
Riley Green is notable for being a conservative musician according to articles such as [this](https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/conservative-musicians-worth-a-listen/), though he has not made any endorsements in 2024.
|
no
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 512 |
29,176 |
Before November 5, 2024, will Kalshi ever show Donald Trump with a 70% chance of winning?
|
Kalshi began election trading in the US presidential election on October 4, 2024.
|
no
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 513 |
29,175 |
Will Montana voters approve CI-128, which would add the right to abortion to the state's constitution?
|
Ballotpedia: [Montana CI-128, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Montana_CI-128,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
|
yes
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
resolved
| 514 |
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