the-data-nerd/vc-deal-flow-signal

Startup GitHub Engineering Velocity Panel

A longitudinal panel of GitHub engineering-velocity signals across venture-backed startups, published under CC BY 4.0 for academic and editorial research on alternative data in venture capital.

Concept DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19650919 Version DOI (v1.0.0): 10.5281/zenodo.19650920 Website: https://gitdealflow.com Live dashboard: https://signals.gitdealflow.com

Dataset summary

This dataset captures engineering-velocity signals — commit velocity, contributor growth, and repository expansion — across ~55 venture-backed startups and ~20 sectors, sampled quarterly for 5 consecutive periods (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026 at the time of v1.0.0). Every observation is derived from the public GitHub REST API v3.

The core motivating hypothesis: sustained engineering acceleration (commit velocity increasing significantly against a startup's own baseline) tends to precede fundraise announcements by approximately 6-12 weeks. This dataset enables researchers to formally test that hypothesis, build predictive models, or use the panel as an alternative-data baseline in venture-capital research.

Configs

Config	Rows	Description
startup_signals	~275	One row per (startup, quarter). Commit velocity, contributor counts, new repos, signal classification, stage estimate.
sector_aggregates	~100	One row per (sector, quarter). Sector-level means, medians, and top-signal breakdowns.
signal_type_timeseries	~80	One row per (signal-type, quarter). Occurrence counts and sector breakdowns per signal type.

Variables measured

Variable	Description	Unit
Commit Velocity (14-day)	Total commits to the organisation's most active public repository over a rolling 14-day window	commits
Commit Velocity Change	Percentage change in commit velocity vs. the preceding 14-day window	percent
Contributor Count	Number of unique contributors to the org's most active public repository	contributors
Contributor Growth	Percentage change in contributor count vs. baseline	percent
New Repositories (30d)	Public repositories created in the last 30 days	repositories
Signal Type	Categorical: Engineering hiring burst / Infrastructure buildout / Deploy frequency spike / Framework migration	categorical
Stage Estimate	Pre-Seed / Seed / Series A-B / Growth — estimated from contributors + enrichment data	categorical
Geography	Broad region: US / UK / EU / APAC / Canada / LATAM / MENA	categorical

Example usage