Daily Papers

Existing NAS methods suffer from either an excessive amount of time for repetitive sampling and training of many task-irrelevant architectures. To tackle such limitations of existing NAS methods, we propose a paradigm shift from NAS to a novel conditional Neural Architecture Generation (NAG) framework based on diffusion models, dubbed DiffusionNAG. Specifically, we consider the neural architectures as directed graphs and propose a graph diffusion model for generating them. Moreover, with the guidance of parameterized predictors, DiffusionNAG can flexibly generate task-optimal architectures with the desired properties for diverse tasks, by sampling from a region that is more likely to satisfy the properties. This conditional NAG scheme is significantly more efficient than previous NAS schemes which sample the architectures and filter them using the property predictors. We validate the effectiveness of DiffusionNAG through extensive experiments in two predictor-based NAS scenarios: Transferable NAS and Bayesian Optimization (BO)-based NAS. DiffusionNAG achieves superior performance with speedups of up to 35 times when compared to the baselines on Transferable NAS benchmarks. Furthermore, when integrated into a BO-based algorithm, DiffusionNAG outperforms existing BO-based NAS approaches, particularly in the large MobileNetV3 search space on the ImageNet 1K dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/CownowAn/DiffusionNAG.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Many recently trained neural networks employ large numbers of parameters to achieve good performance. One may intuitively use the number of parameters required as a rough gauge of the difficulty of a problem. But how accurate are such notions? How many parameters are really needed? In this paper we attempt to answer this question by training networks not in their native parameter space, but instead in a smaller, randomly oriented subspace. We slowly increase the dimension of this subspace, note at which dimension solutions first appear, and define this to be the intrinsic dimension of the objective landscape. The approach is simple to implement, computationally tractable, and produces several suggestive conclusions. Many problems have smaller intrinsic dimensions than one might suspect, and the intrinsic dimension for a given dataset varies little across a family of models with vastly different sizes. This latter result has the profound implication that once a parameter space is large enough to solve a problem, extra parameters serve directly to increase the dimensionality of the solution manifold. Intrinsic dimension allows some quantitative comparison of problem difficulty across supervised, reinforcement, and other types of learning where we conclude, for example, that solving the inverted pendulum problem is 100 times easier than classifying digits from MNIST, and playing Atari Pong from pixels is about as hard as classifying CIFAR-10. In addition to providing new cartography of the objective landscapes wandered by parameterized models, the method is a simple technique for constructively obtaining an upper bound on the minimum description length of a solution. A byproduct of this construction is a simple approach for compressing networks, in some cases by more than 100 times.

Large artificial neural networks have become a mainstay of language, vision, and audio processing and synthesis, yet their initializations and learning rates are often set in an unsophisticated fashion, due to the high cost of hyperparameter sweeps at scale. The mu-Parameterization (muP) offers a potential solution to this challenge, yielding scaling rules for model initialization and learning rates while reportedly enabling zero-shot hyperparameter transfer from small to large models. Despite its evident promise, the muP method is not yet widely adopted, perhaps due to higher implementation complexity, many variations, or complex theoretical background. This work investigates muP empirically, focusing on the ubiquitous transformer architecture, and aims to answer a simple question: does mu-Transfer yield optimal learning rates in practice? Studying models of up to 10B parameters and training budgets of up to 190B tokens, we find mu-Transfer works as intended for the majority of important cases, yet also identify a few cases where it may not.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

This paper introduces a new parameterization of deep neural networks (both fully-connected and convolutional) with guaranteed ell^2 Lipschitz bounds, i.e. limited sensitivity to input perturbations. The Lipschitz guarantees are equivalent to the tightest-known bounds based on certification via a semidefinite program (SDP). We provide a ``direct'' parameterization, i.e., a smooth mapping from mathbb R^N onto the set of weights satisfying the SDP-based bound. Moreover, our parameterization is complete, i.e. a neural network satisfies the SDP bound if and only if it can be represented via our parameterization. This enables training using standard gradient methods, without any inner approximation or computationally intensive tasks (e.g. projections or barrier terms) for the SDP constraint. The new parameterization can equivalently be thought of as either a new layer type (the sandwich layer), or a novel parameterization of standard feedforward networks with parameter sharing between neighbouring layers. A comprehensive set of experiments on image classification shows that sandwich layers outperform previous approaches on both empirical and certified robust accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/acfr/LBDN.

In this work, we propose a communication-efficient parameterization, FedPara, for federated learning (FL) to overcome the burdens on frequent model uploads and downloads. Our method re-parameterizes weight parameters of layers using low-rank weights followed by the Hadamard product. Compared to the conventional low-rank parameterization, our FedPara method is not restricted to low-rank constraints, and thereby it has a far larger capacity. This property enables to achieve comparable performance while requiring 3 to 10 times lower communication costs than the model with the original layers, which is not achievable by the traditional low-rank methods. The efficiency of our method can be further improved by combining with other efficient FL optimizers. In addition, we extend our method to a personalized FL application, pFedPara, which separates parameters into global and local ones. We show that pFedPara outperforms competing personalized FL methods with more than three times fewer parameters.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

Pretraining a neural network on a large dataset is becoming a cornerstone in machine learning that is within the reach of only a few communities with large-resources. We aim at an ambitious goal of democratizing pretraining. Towards that goal, we train and release a single neural network that can predict high quality ImageNet parameters of other neural networks. By using predicted parameters for initialization we are able to boost training of diverse ImageNet models available in PyTorch. When transferred to other datasets, models initialized with predicted parameters also converge faster and reach competitive final performance.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to discover novel categories in unlabelled datasets using knowledge learned from labelled samples. Previous studies argued that parametric classifiers are prone to overfitting to seen categories, and endorsed using a non-parametric classifier formed with semi-supervised k-means. However, in this study, we investigate the failure of parametric classifiers, verify the effectiveness of previous design choices when high-quality supervision is available, and identify unreliable pseudo-labels as a key problem. We demonstrate that two prediction biases exist: the classifier tends to predict seen classes more often, and produces an imbalanced distribution across seen and novel categories. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective parametric classification method that benefits from entropy regularisation, achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple GCD benchmarks and shows strong robustness to unknown class numbers. We hope the investigation and proposed simple framework can serve as a strong baseline to facilitate future studies in this field. Our code is available at: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SimGCD.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

We propose ScaledGD(\lambda), a preconditioned gradient descent method to tackle the low-rank matrix sensing problem when the true rank is unknown, and when the matrix is possibly ill-conditioned. Using overparametrized factor representations, ScaledGD(\lambda) starts from a small random initialization, and proceeds by gradient descent with a specific form of damped preconditioning to combat bad curvatures induced by overparameterization and ill-conditioning. At the expense of light computational overhead incurred by preconditioners, ScaledGD(\lambda) is remarkably robust to ill-conditioning compared to vanilla gradient descent (GD) even with overprameterization. Specifically, we show that, under the Gaussian design, ScaledGD(\lambda) converges to the true low-rank matrix at a constant linear rate after a small number of iterations that scales only logarithmically with respect to the condition number and the problem dimension. This significantly improves over the convergence rate of vanilla GD which suffers from a polynomial dependency on the condition number. Our work provides evidence on the power of preconditioning in accelerating the convergence without hurting generalization in overparameterized learning.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters just like standard neural network parameters using gradients and on the training data. However, estimating a single hyperparameter gradient requires a pass through the entire dataset, limiting the scalability of such algorithms. In this work, we overcome this issue by introducing lower bounds to the linearized Laplace approximation of the marginal likelihood. In contrast to previous estimators, these bounds are amenable to stochastic-gradient-based optimization and allow to trade off estimation accuracy against computational complexity. We derive them using the function-space form of the linearized Laplace, which can be estimated using the neural tangent kernel. Experimentally, we show that the estimators can significantly accelerate gradient-based hyperparameter optimization.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, this "universal" law provides only a necessary condition for robustness, and it is unable to discriminate between models. In this paper, we address these gaps by focusing on empirical risk minimization in two prototypical settings, namely, random features and the neural tangent kernel (NTK). We prove that, for random features, the model is not robust for any degree of over-parameterization, even when the necessary condition coming from the universal law of robustness is satisfied. In contrast, for even activations, the NTK model meets the universal lower bound, and it is robust as soon as the necessary condition on over-parameterization is fulfilled. This also addresses a conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li and Nagaraj. Our analysis decouples the effect of the kernel of the model from an "interaction matrix", which describes the interaction with the test data and captures the effect of the activation. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical evidence on both synthetic and standard datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10).

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

Although pretrained language models can be fine-tuned to produce state-of-the-art results for a very wide range of language understanding tasks, the dynamics of this process are not well understood, especially in the low data regime. Why can we use relatively vanilla gradient descent algorithms (e.g., without strong regularization) to tune a model with hundreds of millions of parameters on datasets with only hundreds or thousands of labeled examples? In this paper, we argue that analyzing fine-tuning through the lens of intrinsic dimension provides us with empirical and theoretical intuitions to explain this remarkable phenomenon. We empirically show that common pre-trained models have a very low intrinsic dimension; in other words, there exists a low dimension reparameterization that is as effective for fine-tuning as the full parameter space. For example, by optimizing only 200 trainable parameters randomly projected back into the full space, we can tune a RoBERTa model to achieve 90\% of the full parameter performance levels on MRPC. Furthermore, we empirically show that pre-training implicitly minimizes intrinsic dimension and, perhaps surprisingly, larger models tend to have lower intrinsic dimension after a fixed number of pre-training updates, at least in part explaining their extreme effectiveness. Lastly, we connect intrinsic dimensionality with low dimensional task representations and compression based generalization bounds to provide intrinsic-dimension-based generalization bounds that are independent of the full parameter count.

When considering a model architecture, there are several ways to reduce its memory footprint. Historically, popular approaches included selecting smaller architectures and creating sparse networks through pruning. More recently, randomized parameter-sharing (RPS) methods have gained traction for model compression at start of training. In this paper, we comprehensively assess the trade-off between memory and accuracy across RPS, pruning techniques, and building smaller models. Our findings demonstrate that RPS, which is both data and model-agnostic, consistently outperforms/matches smaller models and all moderately informed pruning strategies, such as MAG, SNIP, SYNFLOW, and GRASP, across the entire compression range. This advantage becomes particularly pronounced in higher compression scenarios. Notably, even when compared to highly informed pruning techniques like Lottery Ticket Rewinding (LTR), RPS exhibits superior performance in high compression settings. This points out inherent capacity advantage that RPS enjoys over sparse models. Theoretically, we establish RPS as a superior technique in terms of memory-efficient representation when compared to pruning for linear models. This paper argues in favor of paradigm shift towards RPS based models. During our rigorous evaluation of RPS, we identified issues in the state-of-the-art RPS technique ROAST, specifically regarding stability (ROAST's sensitivity to initialization hyperparameters, often leading to divergence) and Pareto-continuity (ROAST's inability to recover the accuracy of the original model at zero compression). We provably address both of these issues. We refer to the modified RPS, which incorporates our improvements, as STABLE-RPS.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the k-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms (k-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

We propose a novel random walk-based algorithm for unbiased estimation of arbitrary functions of a weighted adjacency matrix, coined universal graph random features (u-GRFs). This includes many of the most popular examples of kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. Our algorithm enjoys subquadratic time complexity with respect to the number of nodes, overcoming the notoriously prohibitive cubic scaling of exact graph kernel evaluation. It can also be trivially distributed across machines, permitting learning on much larger networks. At the heart of the algorithm is a modulation function which upweights or downweights the contribution from different random walks depending on their lengths. We show that by parameterising it with a neural network we can obtain u-GRFs that give higher-quality kernel estimates or perform efficient, scalable kernel learning. We provide robust theoretical analysis and support our findings with experiments including pointwise estimation of fixed graph kernels, solving non-homogeneous graph ordinary differential equations, node clustering and kernel regression on triangular meshes.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Practical identifiability is a critical concern in data-driven modeling of mathematical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for practical identifiability analysis to evaluate parameter identifiability in mathematical models of biological systems. Starting with a rigorous mathematical definition of practical identifiability, we demonstrate its equivalence to the invertibility of the Fisher Information Matrix. Our framework establishes the relationship between practical identifiability and coordinate identifiability, introducing a novel metric that simplifies and accelerates the evaluation of parameter identifiability compared to the profile likelihood method. Additionally, we introduce new regularization terms to address non-identifiable parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification and improving model reliability. To guide experimental design, we present an optimal data collection algorithm that ensures all model parameters are practically identifiable. Applications to Hill functions, neural networks, and dynamic biological models demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed computational framework in uncovering critical biological processes and identifying key observable variables.

A neural network with the widely-used ReLU activation has been shown to partition the sample space into many convex polytopes for prediction. However, the parameterized way a neural network and other machine learning models use to partition the space has imperfections, e.g., the compromised interpretability for complex models, the inflexibility in decision boundary construction due to the generic character of the model, and the risk of being trapped into shortcut solutions. In contrast, although the non-parameterized models can adorably avoid or downplay these issues, they are usually insufficiently powerful either due to over-simplification or the failure to accommodate the manifold structures of data. In this context, we first propose a new type of machine learning models referred to as Manifoldron that directly derives decision boundaries from data and partitions the space via manifold structure discovery. Then, we systematically analyze the key characteristics of the Manifoldron such as manifold characterization capability and its link to neural networks. The experimental results on 4 synthetic examples, 20 public benchmark datasets, and 1 real-world application demonstrate that the proposed Manifoldron performs competitively compared to the mainstream machine learning models. We have shared our code in https://github.com/wdayang/Manifoldron for free download and evaluation.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

We begin the study of list-decodable linear regression using batches. In this setting only an alpha in (0,1] fraction of the batches are genuine. Each genuine batch contains ge n i.i.d. samples from a common unknown distribution and the remaining batches may contain arbitrary or even adversarial samples. We derive a polynomial time algorithm that for any nge tilde Omega(1/alpha) returns a list of size mathcal O(1/alpha^2) such that one of the items in the list is close to the true regression parameter. The algorithm requires only mathcal{O}(d/alpha^2) genuine batches and works under fairly general assumptions on the distribution. The results demonstrate the utility of batch structure, which allows for the first polynomial time algorithm for list-decodable regression, which may be impossible for the non-batch setting, as suggested by a recent SQ lower bound diakonikolas2021statistical for the non-batch setting.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

Modern machine learning algorithms, especially deep learning based techniques, typically involve careful hyperparameter tuning to achieve the best performance. Despite the surge of intense interest in practical techniques like Bayesian optimization and random search based approaches to automating this laborious and compute intensive task, the fundamental learning theoretic complexity of tuning hyperparameters for deep neural networks is poorly understood. Inspired by this glaring gap, we initiate the formal study of hyperparameter tuning complexity in deep learning through a recently introduced data driven setting. We assume that we have a series of deep learning tasks, and we have to tune hyperparameters to do well on average over the distribution of tasks. A major difficulty is that the utility function as a function of the hyperparameter is very volatile and furthermore, it is given implicitly by an optimization problem over the model parameters. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new technique to characterize the discontinuities and oscillations of the utility function on any fixed problem instance as we vary the hyperparameter; our analysis relies on subtle concepts including tools from differential/algebraic geometry and constrained optimization. This can be used to show that the learning theoretic complexity of the corresponding family of utility functions is bounded. We instantiate our results and provide sample complexity bounds for concrete applications tuning a hyperparameter that interpolates neural activation functions and setting the kernel parameter in graph neural networks.

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

It is often useful to compactly summarize important properties of model parameters and training data so that they can be used later without storing and/or iterating over the entire dataset. As a specific case, we consider estimating the Function Space Distance (FSD) over a training set, i.e. the average discrepancy between the outputs of two neural networks. We propose a Linearized Activation Function TRick (LAFTR) and derive an efficient approximation to FSD for ReLU neural networks. The key idea is to approximate the architecture as a linear network with stochastic gating. Despite requiring only one parameter per unit of the network, our approach outcompetes other parametric approximations with larger memory requirements. Applied to continual learning, our parametric approximation is competitive with state-of-the-art nonparametric approximations, which require storing many training examples. Furthermore, we show its efficacy in estimating influence functions accurately and detecting mislabeled examples without expensive iterations over the entire dataset.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

Given an unconditional diffusion model and a predictor for a target property of interest (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. Existing methods, though effective in various individual applications, often lack theoretical grounding and rigorous testing on extensive benchmarks. As a result, they could even fail on simple tasks, and applying them to a new problem becomes unavoidably difficult. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic framework encompassing existing methods as special cases, unifying the study of training-free guidance into the analysis of an algorithm-agnostic design space. Via theoretical and empirical investigation, we propose an efficient and effective hyper-parameter searching strategy that can be readily applied to any downstream task. We systematically benchmark across 7 diffusion models on 16 tasks with 40 targets, and improve performance by 8.5% on average. Our framework and benchmark offer a solid foundation for conditional generation in a training-free manner.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained foundation models, such as the 175B GPT-3, has attracted more attention for downstream tasks recently. While parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods have been proposed and proven effective without retraining all model parameters, their performance is limited by the capacity of incremental modules, especially under constrained parameter budgets. \\ To overcome this challenge, we propose CapaBoost, a simple yet effective strategy that enhances model capacity by leveraging low-rank updates through parallel weight modules in target layers. By applying static random masks to the shared weight matrix, CapaBoost constructs a diverse set of weight matrices, effectively increasing the rank of incremental weights without adding parameters. Notably, our approach can be seamlessly integrated into various existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. We extensively validate the efficacy of CapaBoost through experiments on diverse downstream tasks, including natural language understanding, question answering, and image classification. Our results demonstrate significant improvements over baselines, without incurring additional computation or storage costs. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/CapaBoost.

Optimization plays a costly and crucial role in developing machine learning systems. In learned optimizers, the few hyperparameters of commonly used hand-designed optimizers, e.g. Adam or SGD, are replaced with flexible parametric functions. The parameters of these functions are then optimized so that the resulting learned optimizer minimizes a target loss on a chosen class of models. Learned optimizers can both reduce the number of required training steps and improve the final test loss. However, they can be expensive to train, and once trained can be expensive to use due to computational and memory overhead for the optimizer itself. In this work, we identify and quantify the design features governing the memory, compute, and performance trade-offs for many learned and hand-designed optimizers. We further leverage our analysis to construct a learned optimizer that is both faster and more memory efficient than previous work. Our model and training code are open source.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

The Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) aims to make the optimal hyperparameters (HPs) of a model independent of its size, allowing them to be swept using a cheap proxy model rather than the full-size target model. We present a new scheme, u-muP, which improves upon muP by combining it with Unit Scaling, a method for designing models that makes them easy to train in low-precision. The two techniques have a natural affinity: muP ensures that the scale of activations is independent of model size, and Unit Scaling ensures that activations, weights and gradients begin training with a scale of one. This synthesis opens the door to a simpler scheme, whose default values are near-optimal. This in turn facilitates a more efficient sweeping strategy, with u-muP models reaching a lower loss than comparable muP models and working out-of-the-box in FP8.

Most models in machine learning contain at least one hyperparameter to control for model complexity. Choosing an appropriate set of hyperparameters is both crucial in terms of model accuracy and computationally challenging. In this work we propose an algorithm for the optimization of continuous hyperparameters using inexact gradient information. An advantage of this method is that hyperparameters can be updated before model parameters have fully converged. We also give sufficient conditions for the global convergence of this method, based on regularity conditions of the involved functions and summability of errors. Finally, we validate the empirical performance of this method on the estimation of regularization constants of L2-regularized logistic regression and kernel Ridge regression. Empirical benchmarks indicate that our approach is highly competitive with respect to state of the art methods.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

In this paper, we derive a novel bound on the generalization error of Magnitude-Based pruning of overparameterized neural networks. Our work builds on the bounds in Arora et al. [2018] where the error depends on one, the approximation induced by pruning, and two, the number of parameters in the pruned model, and improves upon standard norm-based generalization bounds. The pruned estimates obtained using our new Magnitude-Based compression algorithm are close to the unpruned functions with high probability, which improves the first criteria. Using Sparse Matrix Sketching, the space of the pruned matrices can be efficiently represented in the space of dense matrices of much smaller dimensions, thereby lowering the second criterion. This leads to stronger generalization bound than many state-of-the-art methods, thereby breaking new ground in the algorithm development for pruning and bounding generalization error of overparameterized models. Beyond this, we extend our results to obtain generalization bound for Iterative Pruning [Frankle and Carbin, 2018]. We empirically verify the success of this new method on ReLU-activated Feed Forward Networks on the MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

While tabular classification has traditionally relied on from-scratch training, a recent breakthrough called prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) challenges this approach. Similar to large language models, PFNs make use of pretraining and in-context learning to achieve strong performance on new tasks in a single forward pass. However, current PFNs have limitations that prohibit their widespread adoption. Notably, TabPFN achieves very strong performance on small tabular datasets but is not designed to make predictions for datasets of size larger than 1000. In this work, we overcome these limitations and substantially improve the performance of PFNs via context optimization. We introduce TuneTables, a parameter-efficient fine-tuning strategy for PFNs that compresses large datasets into a smaller learned context. We conduct extensive experiments on 19 algorithms over 98 datasets and find that TuneTables achieves the best performance on average, outperforming boosted trees such as CatBoost, while optimizing fewer than 5% of TabPFN's parameters. Furthermore, we show that TuneTables can be used as an interpretability tool and can even be used to mitigate biases by optimizing a fairness objective. We open-source our code and raw results at https://github.com/penfever/TuneTables.

We study subsampling-based ridge ensembles in the proportional asymptotics regime, where the feature size grows proportionally with the sample size such that their ratio converges to a constant. By analyzing the squared prediction risk of ridge ensembles as a function of the explicit penalty lambda and the limiting subsample aspect ratio phi_s (the ratio of the feature size to the subsample size), we characterize contours in the (lambda, phi_s)-plane at any achievable risk. As a consequence, we prove that the risk of the optimal full ridgeless ensemble (fitted on all possible subsamples) matches that of the optimal ridge predictor. In addition, we prove strong uniform consistency of generalized cross-validation (GCV) over the subsample sizes for estimating the prediction risk of ridge ensembles. This allows for GCV-based tuning of full ridgeless ensembles without sample splitting and yields a predictor whose risk matches optimal ridge risk.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

The classical development of neural networks has primarily focused on learning mappings between finite dimensional Euclidean spaces or finite sets. We propose a generalization of neural networks to learn operators, termed neural operators, that map between infinite dimensional function spaces. We formulate the neural operator as a composition of linear integral operators and nonlinear activation functions. We prove a universal approximation theorem for our proposed neural operator, showing that it can approximate any given nonlinear continuous operator. The proposed neural operators are also discretization-invariant, i.e., they share the same model parameters among different discretization of the underlying function spaces. Furthermore, we introduce four classes of efficient parameterization, viz., graph neural operators, multi-pole graph neural operators, low-rank neural operators, and Fourier neural operators. An important application for neural operators is learning surrogate maps for the solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs). We consider standard PDEs such as the Burgers, Darcy subsurface flow, and the Navier-Stokes equations, and show that the proposed neural operators have superior performance compared to existing machine learning based methodologies, while being several orders of magnitude faster than conventional PDE solvers.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

In this paper, we investigate the long-term memory learning capabilities of state-space models (SSMs) from the perspective of parameterization. We prove that state-space models without any reparameterization exhibit a memory limitation similar to that of traditional RNNs: the target relationships that can be stably approximated by state-space models must have an exponential decaying memory. Our analysis identifies this "curse of memory" as a result of the recurrent weights converging to a stability boundary, suggesting that a reparameterization technique can be effective. To this end, we introduce a class of reparameterization techniques for SSMs that effectively lift its memory limitations. Besides improving approximation capabilities, we further illustrate that a principled choice of reparameterization scheme can also enhance optimization stability. We validate our findings using synthetic datasets and language models.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

It is believed that Gradient Descent (GD) induces an implicit bias towards good generalization in training machine learning models. This paper provides a fine-grained analysis of the dynamics of GD for the matrix sensing problem, whose goal is to recover a low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. It is shown that GD with small initialization behaves similarly to the greedy low-rank learning heuristics (Li et al., 2020) and follows an incremental learning procedure (Gissin et al., 2019): GD sequentially learns solutions with increasing ranks until it recovers the ground truth matrix. Compared to existing works which only analyze the first learning phase for rank-1 solutions, our result provides characterizations for the whole learning process. Moreover, besides the over-parameterized regime that many prior works focused on, our analysis of the incremental learning procedure also applies to the under-parameterized regime. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to confirm our theoretical findings.

Unlabeled data is a key component of modern machine learning. In general, the role of unlabeled data is to impose a form of smoothness, usually from the similarity information encoded in a base kernel, such as the epsilon-neighbor kernel or the adjacency matrix of a graph. This work revisits the classical idea of spectrally transformed kernel regression (STKR), and provides a new class of general and scalable STKR estimators able to leverage unlabeled data. Intuitively, via spectral transformation, STKR exploits the data distribution for which unlabeled data can provide additional information. First, we show that STKR is a principled and general approach, by characterizing a universal type of "target smoothness", and proving that any sufficiently smooth function can be learned by STKR. Second, we provide scalable STKR implementations for the inductive setting and a general transformation function, while prior work is mostly limited to the transductive setting. Third, we derive statistical guarantees for two scenarios: STKR with a known polynomial transformation, and STKR with kernel PCA when the transformation is unknown. Overall, we believe that this work helps deepen our understanding of how to work with unlabeled data, and its generality makes it easier to inspire new methods.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models can lead to order-of-magnitude performance gains for the same amount of compute. Despite this, systematic tuning is uncommon, particularly for large models, which are expensive to evaluate and tend to have many hyperparameters, necessitating difficult judgment calls about tradeoffs, budgets, and search bounds. To address these issues and propose a practical method for robustly tuning large models, we present Cost-Aware Pareto Region Bayesian Search (CARBS), a Bayesian optimization algorithm that performs local search around the performance-cost Pareto frontier. CARBS does well even in unbounded search spaces with many hyperparameters, learns scaling relationships so that it can tune models even as they are scaled up, and automates much of the "black magic" of tuning. Among our results, we effectively solve the entire ProcGen benchmark just by tuning a simple baseline (PPO, as provided in the original ProcGen paper). We also reproduce the model size vs. training tokens scaling result from the Chinchilla project (Hoffmann et al. 2022), while simultaneously discovering scaling laws for every other hyperparameter, via an easy automated process that uses significantly less compute and is applicable to any deep learning problem (not just language models).

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

We address the computational challenges of solving parametric PDEs with non parametrized geometric variations and non-reducible problems, such as those involving shocks and discontinuities of variable positions. Traditional dimensionality reduction methods like POD struggle with these scenarios due to slowly decaying Kolmogorov widths. To overcome this, we propose a novel non-linear dimensionality reduction technique to reduce the required modes for representation. The non-linear reduction is obtained through a POD after applying a transformation on the fields, which we call optimal mappings, and is a solution to an optimization problem in infinite dimension. The proposed learning framework combines morphing techniques, non-linear dimensionality reduction, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The problem is reformulated on a reference geometry before applying the dimensionality reduction. Our method learns both the optimal mapping, and the solution fields, using a series of GPR models, enabling efficient and accurate modeling of complex parametric PDEs with geometrical variability. The results obtained concur with current state-of-the-art models. We mainly compare our method with the winning solution of the ML4CFD NeurIPS 2024 competition.

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

The notion of omnipredictors (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan and Wieder ITCS 2021), suggested a new paradigm for loss minimization. Rather than learning a predictor based on a known loss function, omnipredictors can easily be post-processed to minimize any one of a rich family of loss functions compared with the loss of hypotheses in a class mathcal C. It has been shown that such omnipredictors exist and are implied (for all convex and Lipschitz loss functions) by the notion of multicalibration from the algorithmic fairness literature. In this paper, we introduce omnipredictors for constrained optimization and study their complexity and implications. The notion that we introduce allows the learner to be unaware of the loss function that will be later assigned as well as the constraints that will be later imposed, as long as the subpopulations that are used to define these constraints are known. We show how to obtain omnipredictors for constrained optimization problems, relying on appropriate variants of multicalibration. We also investigate the implications of this notion when the constraints used are so-called group fairness notions.

Hyperparameter optimization can be formulated as a bilevel optimization problem, where the optimal parameters on the training set depend on the hyperparameters. We aim to adapt regularization hyperparameters for neural networks by fitting compact approximations to the best-response function, which maps hyperparameters to optimal weights and biases. We show how to construct scalable best-response approximations for neural networks by modeling the best-response as a single network whose hidden units are gated conditionally on the regularizer. We justify this approximation by showing the exact best-response for a shallow linear network with L2-regularized Jacobian can be represented by a similar gating mechanism. We fit this model using a gradient-based hyperparameter optimization algorithm which alternates between approximating the best-response around the current hyperparameters and optimizing the hyperparameters using the approximate best-response function. Unlike other gradient-based approaches, we do not require differentiating the training loss with respect to the hyperparameters, allowing us to tune discrete hyperparameters, data augmentation hyperparameters, and dropout probabilities. Because the hyperparameters are adapted online, our approach discovers hyperparameter schedules that can outperform fixed hyperparameter values. Empirically, our approach outperforms competing hyperparameter optimization methods on large-scale deep learning problems. We call our networks, which update their own hyperparameters online during training, Self-Tuning Networks (STNs).

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Recent work has highlighted the complex influence training hyperparameters, e.g., the number of training epochs, can have on the prunability of machine learning models. Perhaps surprisingly, a systematic approach to predict precisely how adjusting a specific hyperparameter will affect prunability remains elusive. To address this gap, we introduce a phenomenological model grounded in the statistical mechanics of learning. Our approach uses temperature-like and load-like parameters to model the impact of neural network (NN) training hyperparameters on pruning performance. A key empirical result we identify is a sharp transition phenomenon: depending on the value of a load-like parameter in the pruned model, increasing the value of a temperature-like parameter in the pre-pruned model may either enhance or impair subsequent pruning performance. Based on this transition, we build a three-regime model by taxonomizing the global structure of the pruned NN loss landscape. Our model reveals that the dichotomous effect of high temperature is associated with transitions between distinct types of global structures in the post-pruned model. Based on our results, we present three case-studies: 1) determining whether to increase or decrease a hyperparameter for improved pruning; 2) selecting the best model to prune from a family of models; and 3) tuning the hyperparameter of the Sharpness Aware Minimization method for better pruning performance.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

Learned optimizers (LOs) can significantly reduce the wall-clock training time of neural networks, substantially reducing training costs. However, they often suffer from poor meta-generalization, especially when training networks larger than those seen during meta-training. To address this, we use the recently proposed Maximal Update Parametrization (muP), which allows zero-shot generalization of optimizer hyperparameters from smaller to larger models. We extend muP theory to learned optimizers, treating the meta-training problem as finding the learned optimizer under muP. Our evaluation shows that LOs meta-trained with muP substantially improve meta-generalization as compared to LOs trained under standard parametrization (SP). Notably, when applied to large-width models, our best muLO, trained for 103 GPU-hours, matches or exceeds the performance of VeLO, the largest publicly available learned optimizer, meta-trained with 4000 TPU-months of compute. Moreover, muLOs demonstrate better generalization than their SP counterparts to deeper networks and to much longer training horizons (25 times longer) than those seen during meta-training.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of interpretable prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning optimizes large, pre-trained foundation models by updating a subset of parameters; in this class, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is particularly effective. Inspired by an effort to investigate the different roles of LoRA matrices during fine-tuning, this paper characterizes and leverages unexpected asymmetry in the importance of low-rank adapter matrices. Specifically, when updating the parameter matrices of a neural network by adding a product BA, we observe that the B and A matrices have distinct functions: A extracts features from the input, while B uses these features to create the desired output. Based on this observation, we demonstrate that fine-tuning B is inherently more effective than fine-tuning A, and that a random untrained A should perform nearly as well as a fine-tuned one. Using an information-theoretic lens, we also bound the generalization of low-rank adapters, showing that the parameter savings of exclusively training B improves the bound. We support our conclusions with experiments on RoBERTa, BART-Large, LLaMA-2, and ViTs.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

Language models trained on large amounts of data require careful tuning to be safely deployed in real world. We revisit the guided decoding paradigm, where the goal is to augment the logits of the base language model using the scores from a task-specific reward model. We propose a simple but efficient parameterization of the autoregressive reward model enabling fast and effective guided decoding. On detoxification and sentiment control tasks, we show that our efficient parameterization performs on par with RAD, a strong but less efficient guided decoding approach.

This paper rigorously shows how over-parameterization changes the convergence behaviors of gradient descent (GD) for the matrix sensing problem, where the goal is to recover an unknown low-rank ground-truth matrix from near-isotropic linear measurements. First, we consider the symmetric setting with the symmetric parameterization where M^* in R^{n times n} is a positive semi-definite unknown matrix of rank r ll n, and one uses a symmetric parameterization XX^top to learn M^*. Here X in R^{n times k} with k > r is the factor matrix. We give a novel Omega (1/T^2) lower bound of randomly initialized GD for the over-parameterized case (k >r) where T is the number of iterations. This is in stark contrast to the exact-parameterization scenario (k=r) where the convergence rate is exp (-Omega (T)). Next, we study asymmetric setting where M^* in R^{n_1 times n_2} is the unknown matrix of rank r ll min{n_1,n_2}, and one uses an asymmetric parameterization FG^top to learn M^* where F in R^{n_1 times k} and G in R^{n_2 times k}. Building on prior work, we give a global exact convergence result of randomly initialized GD for the exact-parameterization case (k=r) with an exp (-Omega(T)) rate. Furthermore, we give the first global exact convergence result for the over-parameterization case (k>r) with an exp(-Omega(alpha^2 T)) rate where alpha is the initialization scale. This linear convergence result in the over-parameterization case is especially significant because one can apply the asymmetric parameterization to the symmetric setting to speed up from Omega (1/T^2) to linear convergence. On the other hand, we propose a novel method that only modifies one step of GD and obtains a convergence rate independent of alpha, recovering the rate in the exact-parameterization case.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Modeling long-range dependencies across sequences is a longstanding goal in machine learning and has led to architectures, such as state space models, that dramatically outperform Transformers on long sequences. However, these impressive empirical gains have been by and large demonstrated on benchmarks (e.g. Long Range Arena), where models are randomly initialized and trained to predict a target label from an input sequence. In this work, we show that random initialization leads to gross overestimation of the differences between architectures and that pretraining with standard denoising objectives, using only the downstream task data, leads to dramatic gains across multiple architectures and to very small gaps between Transformers and state space models (SSMs). In stark contrast to prior works, we find vanilla Transformers to match the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena when properly pretrained, and we improve the best reported results of SSMs on the PathX-256 task by 20 absolute points. Subsequently, we analyze the utility of previously-proposed structured parameterizations for SSMs and show they become mostly redundant in the presence of data-driven initialization obtained through pretraining. Our work shows that, when evaluating different architectures on supervised tasks, incorporation of data-driven priors via pretraining is essential for reliable performance estimation, and can be done efficiently.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

Parameterized tight-binding models fit to first principles calculations can provide an efficient and accurate quantum mechanical method for predicting properties of molecules and solids. However, well-tested parameter sets are generally only available for a limited number of atom combinations, making routine use of this method difficult. Furthermore, most previous models consider only simple two-body interactions, which limits accuracy. To tackle these challenges, we develop a density functional theory database of nearly one million materials, which we use to fit a universal set of tight-binding parameters for 65 elements and their binary combinations. We include both two-body and three-body effective interaction terms in our model, plus self-consistent charge transfer, enabling our model to work for metallic, covalent, and ionic bonds with the same parameter set. To ensure predictive power, we adopt a learning framework where we repeatedly test the model on new low energy crystal structures and then add them to the fitting dataset, iterating until predictions improve. We distribute the materials database and tools developed in this work publicly.

In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For the case of neural network weight matrices, we propose maintaining only the per-row and per-column sums of these moving averages, and estimating the per-parameter second moments based on these sums. We demonstrate empirically that this method produces similar results to the baseline. Secondly, we show that adaptive methods can produce larger-than-desired updates when the decay rate of the second moment accumulator is too slow. We propose update clipping and a gradually increasing decay rate scheme as remedies. Combining these methods and dropping momentum, we achieve comparable results to the published Adam regime in training the Transformer model on the WMT 2014 English-German machine translation task, while using very little auxiliary storage in the optimizer. Finally, we propose scaling the parameter updates based on the scale of the parameters themselves.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

This paper presents a systematic overview and comparison of parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods covering over 40 papers published between February 2019 and February 2023. These methods aim to resolve the infeasibility and impracticality of fine-tuning large language models by only training a small set of parameters. We provide a taxonomy that covers a broad range of methods and present a detailed method comparison with a specific focus on real-life efficiency and fine-tuning multibillion-scale language models.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Adapting pre-trained foundation models for various downstream tasks has been prevalent in artificial intelligence. Due to the vast number of tasks and high costs, adjusting all parameters becomes unfeasible. To mitigate this, several fine-tuning techniques have been developed to update the pre-trained model weights in a more resource-efficient manner, such as through low-rank adjustments. Yet, almost all of these methods focus on linear weights, neglecting the intricacies of parameter spaces in higher dimensions like 4D. Alternatively, some methods can be adapted for high-dimensional parameter space by compressing changes in the original space into two dimensions and then employing low-rank matrix decomposition. However, these approaches destructs the structural integrity of the involved high-dimensional spaces. To tackle the diversity of dimensional spaces across different foundation models and provide a more precise representation of the changes within these spaces, this paper introduces a generalized parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework, FLoRA, designed for various dimensional parameter space. Specifically, utilizing Tucker decomposition, FLoRA asserts that changes in each dimensional parameter space are based on a low-rank core space which maintains the consistent topological structure with the original space. It then models the changes through this core space alongside corresponding weights to reconstruct alterations in the original space. FLoRA effectively preserves the structural integrity of the change of original N-dimensional parameter space, meanwhile decomposes it via low-rank tensor decomposition. Extensive experiments on computer vision, natural language processing and multi-modal tasks validate FLoRA's effectiveness. Codes are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepVisionLab/FLoRA.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Learning compatible representations enables the interchangeable use of semantic features as models are updated over time. This is particularly relevant in search and retrieval systems where it is crucial to avoid reprocessing of the gallery images with the updated model. While recent research has shown promising empirical evidence, there is still a lack of comprehensive theoretical understanding about learning compatible representations. In this paper, we demonstrate that the stationary representations learned by the d-Simplex fixed classifier optimally approximate compatibility representation according to the two inequality constraints of its formal definition. This not only establishes a solid foundation for future works in this line of research but also presents implications that can be exploited in practical learning scenarios. An exemplary application is the now-standard practice of downloading and fine-tuning new pre-trained models. Specifically, we show the strengths and critical issues of stationary representations in the case in which a model undergoing sequential fine-tuning is asynchronously replaced by downloading a better-performing model pre-trained elsewhere. Such a representation enables seamless delivery of retrieval service (i.e., no reprocessing of gallery images) and offers improved performance without operational disruptions during model replacement. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.

We introduce a framework based on bilevel programming that unifies gradient-based hyperparameter optimization and meta-learning. We show that an approximate version of the bilevel problem can be solved by taking into explicit account the optimization dynamics for the inner objective. Depending on the specific setting, the outer variables take either the meaning of hyperparameters in a supervised learning problem or parameters of a meta-learner. We provide sufficient conditions under which solutions of the approximate problem converge to those of the exact problem. We instantiate our approach for meta-learning in the case of deep learning where representation layers are treated as hyperparameters shared across a set of training episodes. In experiments, we confirm our theoretical findings, present encouraging results for few-shot learning and contrast the bilevel approach against classical approaches for learning-to-learn.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Parameter regularization or allocation methods are effective in overcoming catastrophic forgetting in lifelong learning. However, they solve all tasks in a sequence uniformly and ignore the differences in the learning difficulty of different tasks. So parameter regularization methods face significant forgetting when learning a new task very different from learned tasks, and parameter allocation methods face unnecessary parameter overhead when learning simple tasks. In this paper, we propose the Parameter Allocation & Regularization (PAR), which adaptively select an appropriate strategy for each task from parameter allocation and regularization based on its learning difficulty. A task is easy for a model that has learned tasks related to it and vice versa. We propose a divergence estimation method based on the Nearest-Prototype distance to measure the task relatedness using only features of the new task. Moreover, we propose a time-efficient relatedness-aware sampling-based architecture search strategy to reduce the parameter overhead for allocation. Experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that, compared with SOTAs, our method is scalable and significantly reduces the model's redundancy while improving the model's performance. Further qualitative analysis indicates that PAR obtains reasonable task-relatedness.

We consider a deep matrix factorization model of covariance matrices trained with the Bures-Wasserstein distance. While recent works have made important advances in the study of the optimization problem for overparametrized low-rank matrix approximation, much emphasis has been placed on discriminative settings and the square loss. In contrast, our model considers another interesting type of loss and connects with the generative setting. We characterize the critical points and minimizers of the Bures-Wasserstein distance over the space of rank-bounded matrices. For low-rank matrices the Hessian of this loss can theoretically blow up, which creates challenges to analyze convergence of optimizaton methods. We establish convergence results for gradient flow using a smooth perturbative version of the loss and convergence results for finite step size gradient descent under certain assumptions on the initial weights.

The equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability is a fundamental phenomenon in learning theory. With variants ranging from classical settings like PAC learning and regression to recent trends such as adversarially robust learning, it's surprising that we still lack a unified theory; traditional proofs of the equivalence tend to be disparate, and rely on strong model-specific assumptions like uniform convergence and sample compression. In this work, we give the first model-independent framework explaining the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learnability: a three-line blackbox reduction that simplifies, unifies, and extends our understanding across a wide variety of settings. This includes models with no known characterization of learnability such as learning with arbitrary distributional assumptions and more general loss functions, as well as a host of other popular settings such as robust learning, partial learning, fair learning, and the statistical query model. More generally, we argue that the equivalence of realizable and agnostic learning is actually a special case of a broader phenomenon we call property generalization: any desirable property of a learning algorithm (e.g. noise tolerance, privacy, stability) that can be satisfied over finite hypothesis classes extends (possibly in some variation) to any learnable hypothesis class.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

In this paper, we consider the problem of Iterative Machine Teaching (IMT), where the teacher provides examples to the learner iteratively such that the learner can achieve fast convergence to a target model. However, existing IMT algorithms are solely based on parameterized families of target models. They mainly focus on convergence in the parameter space, resulting in difficulty when the target models are defined to be functions without dependency on parameters. To address such a limitation, we study a more general task -- Nonparametric Iterative Machine Teaching (NIMT), which aims to teach nonparametric target models to learners in an iterative fashion. Unlike parametric IMT that merely operates in the parameter space, we cast NIMT as a functional optimization problem in the function space. To solve it, we propose both random and greedy functional teaching algorithms. We obtain the iterative teaching dimension (ITD) of the random teaching algorithm under proper assumptions, which serves as a uniform upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Further, the greedy teaching algorithm has a significantly lower ITD, which reaches a tighter upper bound of ITD in NIMT. Finally, we verify the correctness of our theoretical findings with extensive experiments in nonparametric scenarios.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, f-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. The generality of \frameworkname is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

Pre-training and fine-tuning have achieved significant advances in the information retrieval (IR). A typical approach is to fine-tune all the parameters of large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) on downstream tasks. As the model size and the number of tasks increase greatly, such approach becomes less feasible and prohibitively expensive. Recently, a variety of parameter-efficient tuning methods have been proposed in natural language processing (NLP) that only fine-tune a small number of parameters while still attaining strong performance. Yet there has been little effort to explore parameter-efficient tuning for IR. In this work, we first conduct a comprehensive study of existing parameter-efficient tuning methods at both the retrieval and re-ranking stages. Unlike the promising results in NLP, we find that these methods cannot achieve comparable performance to full fine-tuning at both stages when updating less than 1\% of the original model parameters. More importantly, we find that the existing methods are just parameter-efficient, but not learning-efficient as they suffer from unstable training and slow convergence. To analyze the underlying reason, we conduct a theoretical analysis and show that the separation of the inserted trainable modules makes the optimization difficult. To alleviate this issue, we propose to inject additional modules alongside the PTM to make the original scattered modules connected. In this way, all the trainable modules can form a pathway to smooth the loss surface and thus help stabilize the training process. Experiments at both retrieval and re-ranking stages show that our method outperforms existing parameter-efficient methods significantly, and achieves comparable or even better performance over full fine-tuning.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Parameter-efficient tuning (PET) methods can effectively drive extremely large pre-trained language models (PLMs) by only training minimal parameters. Different PET methods utilize different manually designed modules. In a small PLM, there are usually noticeable performance differences among PET methods. Nevertheless, when a PLM's scale grows up to tens of billions of parameters, all PET methods achieve almost the same performance and even perform on par with the full-parameter fine-tuning method. Hence, we hypothesize that model scaling can mitigate the design differences (the module structures and the number of trainable parameters) among PET methods. To study this hypothesis, we introduce a more flexible PET method - arbitrary PET (APET) method - to be compatible with arbitrary module structures and any number of trainable parameters. Then, we experiment on 11 NLP tasks of 5 types and 2 representative PLMs. From our investigations, we find that the model scaling (1) mitigates the effects of the arbitrary module structure on the performance of tuning methods, and (2) enables the tuning methods to optimize fewer parameters to achieve the full-parameter fine-tuning performance. Intriguingly, we also observe that all tuning methods require almost the same number of trainable parameters to drive PLMs. We discuss this phenomenon and the above two findings collectively from optimization perspectives to fathom the mechanisms behind them. These conclusions not only demonstrate the positive impact of model scaling on tuning methods but disclose its mechanisms, which help us design more effective and efficient tuning methods on larger-scale PLMs.

We explore a data-driven approach for learning to optimize neural networks. We construct a dataset of neural network checkpoints and train a generative model on the parameters. In particular, our model is a conditional diffusion transformer that, given an initial input parameter vector and a prompted loss, error, or return, predicts the distribution over parameter updates that achieve the desired metric. At test time, it can optimize neural networks with unseen parameters for downstream tasks in just one update. We find that our approach successfully generates parameters for a wide range of loss prompts. Moreover, it can sample multimodal parameter solutions and has favorable scaling properties. We apply our method to different neural network architectures and tasks in supervised and reinforcement learning.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging, as models must adapt to variations in parameters such as coefficients, forcing terms, and boundary conditions. Data-driven neural solvers either train on data sampled from the PDE parameters distribution in the hope that the model generalizes to new instances or rely on gradient-based adaptation and meta-learning to implicitly encode the dynamics from observations. This often comes with increased inference complexity. Inspired by the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we introduce Zebra, a novel generative auto-regressive transformer designed to solve parametric PDEs without requiring gradient adaptation at inference. By leveraging in-context information during both pre-training and inference, Zebra dynamically adapts to new tasks by conditioning on input sequences that incorporate context trajectories or preceding states. This approach enables Zebra to flexibly handle arbitrarily sized context inputs and supports uncertainty quantification through the sampling of multiple solution trajectories. We evaluate Zebra across a variety of challenging PDE scenarios, demonstrating its adaptability, robustness, and superior performance compared to existing approaches.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Parameter-shared pre-trained language models (PLMs) have emerged as a successful approach in resource-constrained environments, enabling substantial reductions in model storage and memory costs without significant performance compromise. However, it is important to note that parameter sharing does not alleviate computational burdens associated with inference, thus impeding its practicality in situations characterized by limited stringent latency requirements or computational resources. Building upon neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we introduce a straightforward technique to enhance the inference efficiency of parameter-shared PLMs. Additionally, we propose a simple pre-training technique that leads to fully or partially shared models capable of achieving even greater inference acceleration. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on both autoregressive and autoencoding PLMs, providing novel insights into more efficient utilization of parameter-shared models in resource-constrained settings.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Hypergraphs are a powerful abstraction for representing higher-order interactions between entities of interest. To exploit these relationships in making downstream predictions, a variety of hypergraph neural network architectures have recently been proposed, in large part building upon precursors from the more traditional graph neural network (GNN) literature. Somewhat differently, in this paper we begin by presenting an expressive family of parameterized, hypergraph-regularized energy functions. We then demonstrate how minimizers of these energies effectively serve as node embeddings that, when paired with a parameterized classifier, can be trained end-to-end via a supervised bilevel optimization process. Later, we draw parallels between the implicit architecture of the predictive models emerging from the proposed bilevel hypergraph optimization, and existing GNN architectures in common use. Empirically, we demonstrate state-of-the-art results on various hypergraph node classification benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/yxzwang/PhenomNN.

State-of-the-art LLMs are powered by scaling -- scaling model size, dataset size and cluster size. It is economically infeasible to extensively tune hyperparameter for the largest runs. Instead, approximately optimal hyperparameters must be inferred or transferred from smaller experiments. Hyperparameter transfer across model sizes has been studied in Yang et al. However, hyperparameter transfer across dataset size -- or token horizon -- has not been studied yet. To remedy this we conduct a large scale empirical study on how optimal learning rate (LR) depends on token horizon in LLM training. We first demonstrate that the optimal LR changes significantly with token horizon -- longer training necessitates smaller LR. Secondly we demonstrate the the optimal LR follows a scaling law, and that the optimal LR for longer horizons can be accurately estimated from shorter horizons via such scaling laws. We also provide a rule-of-thumb for transferring LR across token horizons with zero overhead over current practices. Lastly we provide evidence that LLama-1 used too high LR, and estimate the performance hit from this. We thus argue that hyperparameter transfer across data size is an important and overlooked component of LLM training.

Python type inference is challenging in practice. Due to its dynamic properties and extensive dependencies on third-party libraries without type annotations, the performance of traditional static analysis techniques is limited. Although semantics in source code can help manifest intended usage for variables (thus help infer types), they are usually ignored by existing tools. In this paper, we propose PYInfer, an end-to-end learning-based type inference tool that automatically generates type annotations for Python variables. The key insight is that contextual code semantics is critical in inferring the type for a variable. For each use of a variable, we collect a few tokens within its contextual scope, and design a neural network to predict its type. One challenge is that it is difficult to collect a high-quality human-labeled training dataset for this purpose. To address this issue, we apply an existing static analyzer to generate the ground truth for variables in source code. Our main contribution is a novel approach to statically infer variable types effectively and efficiently. Formulating the type inference as a classification problem, we can handle user-defined types and predict type probabilities for each variable. Our model achieves 91.2% accuracy on classifying 11 basic types in Python and 81.2% accuracy on classifying 500 most common types. Our results substantially outperform the state-of-the-art type annotators. Moreover, PYInfer achieves 5.2X more code coverage and is 187X faster than a state-of-the-art learning-based tool. With similar time consumption, our model annotates 5X more variables than a state-of-the-art static analysis tool. Our model also outperforms a learning-based function-level annotator on annotating types for variables and function arguments. All our tools and datasets are publicly available to facilitate future research in this direction.

Fine-tuning large pre-trained language models on downstream tasks has become the de-facto learning paradigm in NLP. However, conventional approaches fine-tune all the parameters of the pre-trained model, which becomes prohibitive as the model size and the number of tasks grow. Recent work has proposed a variety of parameter-efficient transfer learning methods that only fine-tune a small number of (extra) parameters to attain strong performance. While effective, the critical ingredients for success and the connections among the various methods are poorly understood. In this paper, we break down the design of state-of-the-art parameter-efficient transfer learning methods and present a unified framework that establishes connections between them. Specifically, we re-frame them as modifications to specific hidden states in pre-trained models, and define a set of design dimensions along which different methods vary, such as the function to compute the modification and the position to apply the modification. Through comprehensive empirical studies across machine translation, text summarization, language understanding, and text classification benchmarks, we utilize the unified view to identify important design choices in previous methods. Furthermore, our unified framework enables the transfer of design elements across different approaches, and as a result we are able to instantiate new parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods that tune less parameters than previous methods while being more effective, achieving comparable results to fine-tuning all parameters on all four tasks.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Gigantic pre-trained models have become central to natural language processing (NLP), serving as the starting point for fine-tuning towards a range of downstream tasks. However, two pain points persist for this paradigm: (a) as the pre-trained models grow bigger (e.g., 175B parameters for GPT-3), even the fine-tuning process can be time-consuming and computationally expensive; (b) the fine-tuned model has the same size as its starting point by default, which is neither sensible due to its more specialized functionality, nor practical since many fine-tuned models will be deployed in resource-constrained environments. To address these pain points, we propose a framework for resource- and parameter-efficient fine-tuning by leveraging the sparsity prior in both weight updates and the final model weights. Our proposed framework, dubbed Dually Sparsity-Embedded Efficient Tuning (DSEE), aims to achieve two key objectives: (i) parameter efficient fine-tuning - by enforcing sparsity-aware low-rank updates on top of the pre-trained weights; and (ii) resource-efficient inference - by encouraging a sparse weight structure towards the final fine-tuned model. We leverage sparsity in these two directions by exploiting both unstructured and structured sparse patterns in pre-trained language models via a unified approach. Extensive experiments and in-depth investigations, with diverse network backbones (i.e., BERT, RoBERTa, and GPT-2) on dozens of datasets, consistently demonstrate impressive parameter-/inference-efficiency, while maintaining competitive downstream performance. For instance, DSEE saves about 25% inference FLOPs while achieving comparable performance, with 0.5% trainable parameters on BERT. Codes are available in https://github.com/VITA-Group/DSEE.

We present SmolTulu-1.7b-Instruct, referenced in this report as SmolTulu-DPO-1130, an instruction-tuned language model that adapts AllenAI's Tulu 3 post-training pipeline to enhance Huggingface's SmolLM2-1.7B base model. Through comprehensive empirical analysis using a 135M parameter model, we demonstrate that the relationship between learning rate and batch size significantly impacts model performance in a task-dependent manner. Our findings reveal a clear split: reasoning tasks like ARC and GSM8K benefit from higher learning rate to batch size ratios, while pattern recognition tasks such as HellaSwag and IFEval show optimal performance with lower ratios. These insights informed the development of SmolTulu, which achieves state-of-the-art performance among sub-2B parameter models on instruction following, scoring 67.7% on IFEval (Delta11%), and mathematical reasoning with 51.6% on GSM8K (Delta3.4%), with an alternate version achieving scoring 57.1% on ARC (Delta5.4%). We release our model, training recipes, and ablation studies to facilitate further research in efficient model alignment, demonstrating that careful adaptation of optimization dynamics can help bridge the capability gap between small and large language models.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

We provide a rigorous analysis of implicit regularization in an overparametrized tensor factorization problem beyond the lazy training regime. For matrix factorization problems, this phenomenon has been studied in a number of works. A particular challenge has been to design universal initialization strategies which provably lead to implicit regularization in gradient-descent methods. At the same time, it has been argued by Cohen et. al. 2016 that more general classes of neural networks can be captured by considering tensor factorizations. However, in the tensor case, implicit regularization has only been rigorously established for gradient flow or in the lazy training regime. In this paper, we prove the first tensor result of its kind for gradient descent rather than gradient flow. We focus on the tubal tensor product and the associated notion of low tubal rank, encouraged by the relevance of this model for image data. We establish that gradient descent in an overparametrized tensor factorization model with a small random initialization exhibits an implicit bias towards solutions of low tubal rank. Our theoretical findings are illustrated in an extensive set of numerical simulations show-casing the dynamics predicted by our theory as well as the crucial role of using a small random initialization.

Large models represent a groundbreaking advancement in multiple application fields, enabling remarkable achievements across various tasks. However, their unprecedented scale comes with significant computational costs. These models, often consisting of billions of parameters, require vast amounts of computational resources for execution. Especially, the expansive scale and computational demands pose considerable challenges when customizing them for particular downstream tasks, particularly over the hardware platforms constrained by computational capabilities. Parameter Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) provides a practical solution by efficiently adapt the large models over the various downstream tasks. In particular, PEFT refers to the process of adjusting the parameters of a pre-trained large models to adapt it to a specific task while minimizing the number of additional parameters introduced or computational resources required. This approach is particularly important when dealing with large language models with high parameter counts, as fine-tuning these models from scratch can be computationally expensive and resource-intensive, posing considerable challenges in the supporting system platform design. In this survey, we present comprehensive studies of various PEFT algorithms, examining their performance and computational overhead. Moreover, we provide an overview of applications developed using different PEFT algorithms and discuss common techniques employed to mitigate computation costs for PEFT. In addition to the algorithmic perspective, we overview various real-world system designs to investigate the implementation costs associated with different PEFT algorithms. This survey serves as an indispensable resource for researchers aiming to understand both the PEFT algorithm and its system implementation, offering detailed insights into recent advancements and practical applications.

In this paper, we introduce the idea of decomposing the residuals of regression with respect to the data instances instead of features. This allows us to determine the effects of each individual instance on the model and each other, and in doing so makes for a model-agnostic method of identifying instances of interest. In doing so, we can also determine the appropriateness of the model and data in the wider context of a given study. The paper focuses on the possible applications that such a framework brings to the relatively unexplored field of instance analysis in the context of Explainable AI tasks.

Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they should be able to alter its input variables in a way that guarantees approval. Otherwise, they will be denied the loan as long as the model is deployed. More importantly, they will lack the ability to influence a decision that affects their livelihood. In this paper, we frame these issues in terms of recourse, which we define as the ability of a person to change the decision of a model by altering actionable input variables (e.g., income vs. age or marital status). We present integer programming tools to ensure recourse in linear classification problems without interfering in model development. We demonstrate how our tools can inform stakeholders through experiments on credit scoring problems. Our results show that recourse can be significantly affected by standard practices in model development, and motivate the need to evaluate recourse in practice.

A key step in reverse engineering neural networks is to decompose them into simpler parts that can be studied in relative isolation. Linear parameter decomposition -- a framework that has been proposed to resolve several issues with current decomposition methods -- decomposes neural network parameters into a sum of sparsely used vectors in parameter space. However, the current main method in this framework, Attribution-based Parameter Decomposition (APD), is impractical on account of its computational cost and sensitivity to hyperparameters. In this work, we introduce Stochastic Parameter Decomposition (SPD), a method that is more scalable and robust to hyperparameters than APD, which we demonstrate by decomposing models that are slightly larger and more complex than was possible to decompose with APD. We also show that SPD avoids other issues, such as shrinkage of the learned parameters, and better identifies ground truth mechanisms in toy models. By bridging causal mediation analysis and network decomposition methods, this demonstration opens up new research possibilities in mechanistic interpretability by removing barriers to scaling linear parameter decomposition methods to larger models. We release a library for running SPD and reproducing our experiments at https://github.com/goodfire-ai/spd.

We introduce Adam, an algorithm for first-order gradient-based optimization of stochastic objective functions, based on adaptive estimates of lower-order moments. The method is straightforward to implement, is computationally efficient, has little memory requirements, is invariant to diagonal rescaling of the gradients, and is well suited for problems that are large in terms of data and/or parameters. The method is also appropriate for non-stationary objectives and problems with very noisy and/or sparse gradients. The hyper-parameters have intuitive interpretations and typically require little tuning. Some connections to related algorithms, on which Adam was inspired, are discussed. We also analyze the theoretical convergence properties of the algorithm and provide a regret bound on the convergence rate that is comparable to the best known results under the online convex optimization framework. Empirical results demonstrate that Adam works well in practice and compares favorably to other stochastic optimization methods. Finally, we discuss AdaMax, a variant of Adam based on the infinity norm.

Recent studies of gradient descent with large step sizes have shown that there is often a regime with an initial increase in the largest eigenvalue of the loss Hessian (progressive sharpening), followed by a stabilization of the eigenvalue near the maximum value which allows convergence (edge of stability). These phenomena are intrinsically non-linear and do not happen for models in the constant Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, for which the predictive function is approximately linear in the parameters. As such, we consider the next simplest class of predictive models, namely those that are quadratic in the parameters, which we call second-order regression models. For quadratic objectives in two dimensions, we prove that this second-order regression model exhibits progressive sharpening of the NTK eigenvalue towards a value that differs slightly from the edge of stability, which we explicitly compute. In higher dimensions, the model generically shows similar behavior, even without the specific structure of a neural network, suggesting that progressive sharpening and edge-of-stability behavior aren't unique features of neural networks, and could be a more general property of discrete learning algorithms in high-dimensional non-linear models.

Fine-tuning pre-trained models with custom data leads to numerous expert models on specific tasks. Merging models into one universal model to empower multi-task ability refraining from data leakage has gained popularity. With the expansion in data and model size, parameter efficient tuning becomes the common practice for obtaining task-specific models efficiently. However, we observe that existing methods designed for full fine-tuning merging fail under efficient tuning. To address the issues, we analyze from low-rank decomposition and reveal that maintaining direction and compensating for gap between singular values are crucial for efficient model merging. Consequently, we propose CoPA-Merging, a training-free parameter efficient merging method with complementary parameter adaptation. Specifically, we (1) prune parameters and construct scaling coefficients from inter-parameter relation to compensate for performance drop from task interference and (2) perform cross-task normalization to enhance unseen task generalization. We establish a benchmark consisting of diverse multimodal tasks, on which we conduct experiments to certificate the outstanding performance and generalizability of our method. Additional study and extensive analyses further showcase the effectiveness.

Instruction fine-tuning pretrained LLMs for diverse downstream tasks has demonstrated remarkable success and has captured the interest of both academics and practitioners. To ensure such fine-tuned LLMs align with human preferences, techniques such as RLHF and DPO have emerged. At the same time, there is increasing interest in smaller parameter counts for models. In this work, using OpenLLaMA 3Bv2 as a base model, we describe the recipe used to fine-tune the OpenBezoar family of models. In this recipe: We first generate synthetic instruction fine-tuning data using an open and commercially non-restrictive instruction fine-tuned variant of the Falcon-40B model under three schemes based on: LaMini-LM, WizardLM/Evol-Instruct (with databricks-dolly-15k as a seed dataset) and Orca (with the Flan Collection as a seed dataset), then filter these generations using GPT-4 as a human proxy. We then perform cost-effective QLoRA-based supervised fine-tuning sequentially with each scheme. The resulting checkpoint is further fine-tuned with a subset of the HH-RLHF dataset to minimize distribution shift prior to using the DPO loss to obtain the final checkpoint. Evaluation is done with the LM Eval Harness tasks/metrics as well as on MT-Bench using the "LLM-as-a-judge" framework with Claude 2.1, with the finding that the final checkpoint, "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-DPO", demonstrates superior performance over many models at the 3B parameter scale, even outperforming the top model in one of the categories on the Huggingface Open LLM Leaderboard. We release "OpenBezoar-SFT", "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-SFT", "OpenBezoar-HH-RLHF-DPO" checkpoints, alongside our generated datasets on HuggingFace at https://huggingface.co/collections/SurgeGlobal/open-bezoar-6620a24923e12127e9e2b9cc and our codebase at https://bitbucket.org/paladinanalytics/workspace/projects/OP.

Parameter generation has struggled to scale up for a long time, significantly limiting its range of applications. In this study, we introduce Recurrent diffusion for large-scale Parameter Generation, called RPG. We first divide the trained parameters into non-overlapping parts, after which a recurrent model is proposed to learn their relationships. The recurrent model's outputs, as conditions, are then fed into a diffusion model to generate the neural network parameters. Using only a single GPU, recurrent diffusion enables us to generate popular vision and language models such as ConvNeXt-L and LoRA parameters of LLaMA-7B. Meanwhile, across various architectures and tasks, the generated parameters consistently perform comparable results over trained networks. Notably, our approach also shows the potential to generate models for handling unseen tasks, which largely increases the practicality of parameter generation. Our code is available https://github.com/NUS-HPC-AI-Lab/Recurrent-Parameter-Generation{here}.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a core problem for the machine learning community and remains largely unsolved due to the significant computational resources required to evaluate hyperparameter configurations. As a result, a series of recent related works have focused on the direction of transfer learning for quickly fine-tuning hyperparameters on a dataset. Unfortunately, the community does not have a common large-scale benchmark for comparing HPO algorithms. Instead, the de facto practice consists of empirical protocols on arbitrary small-scale meta-datasets that vary inconsistently across publications, making reproducibility a challenge. To resolve this major bottleneck and enable a fair and fast comparison of black-box HPO methods on a level playing field, we propose HPO-B, a new large-scale benchmark in the form of a collection of meta-datasets. Our benchmark is assembled and preprocessed from the OpenML repository and consists of 176 search spaces (algorithms) evaluated sparsely on 196 datasets with a total of 6.4 million hyperparameter evaluations. For ensuring reproducibility on our benchmark, we detail explicit experimental protocols, splits, and evaluation measures for comparing methods for both non-transfer, as well as, transfer learning HPO.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Self-predictive unsupervised learning methods such as BYOL or SimSiam have shown impressive results, and counter-intuitively, do not collapse to trivial representations. In this work, we aim at exploring the simplest possible mathematical arguments towards explaining the underlying mechanisms behind self-predictive unsupervised learning. We start with the observation that those methods crucially rely on the presence of a predictor network (and stop-gradient). With simple linear algebra, we show that when using a linear predictor, the optimal predictor is close to an orthogonal projection, and propose a general framework based on orthonormalization that enables to interpret and give intuition on why BYOL works. In addition, this framework demonstrates the crucial role of the exponential moving average and stop-gradient operator in BYOL as an efficient orthonormalization mechanism. We use these insights to propose four new closed-form predictor variants of BYOL to support our analysis. Our closed-form predictors outperform standard linear trainable predictor BYOL at 100 and 300 epochs (top-1 linear accuracy on ImageNet).

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

Detailed detector simulation is the major consumer of CPU resources at LHCb, having used more than 90% of the total computing budget during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. As data is collected by the upgraded LHCb detector during Run 3 of the LHC, larger requests for simulated data samples are necessary, and will far exceed the pledged resources of the experiment, even with existing fast simulation options. An evolution of technologies and techniques to produce simulated samples is mandatory to meet the upcoming needs of analysis to interpret signal versus background and measure efficiencies. In this context, we propose Lamarr, a Gaudi-based framework designed to offer the fastest solution for the simulation of the LHCb detector. Lamarr consists of a pipeline of modules parameterizing both the detector response and the reconstruction algorithms of the LHCb experiment. Most of the parameterizations are made of Deep Generative Models and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees trained on simulated samples or alternatively, where possible, on real data. Embedding Lamarr in the general LHCb Gauss Simulation framework allows combining its execution with any of the available generators in a seamless way. Lamarr has been validated by comparing key reconstructed quantities with Detailed Simulation. Good agreement of the simulated distributions is obtained with two-order-of-magnitude speed-up of the simulation phase.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

Adapting large-scale pretrained language models to downstream tasks via fine-tuning is the standard method for achieving state-of-the-art performance on NLP benchmarks. However, fine-tuning all weights of models with millions or billions of parameters is sample-inefficient, unstable in low-resource settings, and wasteful as it requires storing a separate copy of the model for each task. Recent work has developed parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods, but these approaches either still require a relatively large number of parameters or underperform standard fine-tuning. In this work, we propose Compacter, a method for fine-tuning large-scale language models with a better trade-off between task performance and the number of trainable parameters than prior work. Compacter accomplishes this by building on top of ideas from adapters, low-rank optimization, and parameterized hypercomplex multiplication layers. Specifically, Compacter inserts task-specific weight matrices into a pretrained model's weights, which are computed efficiently as a sum of Kronecker products between shared "slow" weights and "fast" rank-one matrices defined per Compacter layer. By only training 0.047% of a pretrained model's parameters, Compacter performs on par with standard fine-tuning on GLUE and outperforms standard fine-tuning on SuperGLUE and low-resource settings. Our code is publicly available at~https://github.com/rabeehk/compacter.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

The rapid development of AI systems has been greatly influenced by the emergence of foundation models. A common approach for targeted problems involves fine-tuning these pre-trained foundation models for specific target tasks, resulting in a rapid spread of models fine-tuned across a diverse array of tasks. This work focuses on the problem of merging multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model derived from a spectrum of auxiliary tasks. We introduce a new simple method, Model Breadcrumbs, which consists of a sparsely defined set of weights that carve out a trajectory within the weight space of a pre-trained model, enhancing task performance when traversed. These breadcrumbs are constructed by subtracting the weights from a pre-trained model before and after fine-tuning, followed by a sparsification process that eliminates weight outliers and negligible perturbations. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Model Breadcrumbs to simultaneously improve performance across multiple tasks. This contribution aligns with the evolving paradigm of updatable machine learning, reminiscent of the collaborative principles underlying open-source software development, fostering a community-driven effort to reliably update machine learning models. Our method is shown to be more efficient and unlike previous proposals does not require hyperparameter tuning for each new task added. Through extensive experimentation involving various models, tasks, and modalities we establish that integrating Model Breadcrumbs offers a simple, efficient, and highly effective approach for constructing multi-task models and facilitating updates to foundation models.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) aims to enable models to continuously learn new classes while overcoming catastrophic forgetting. The introduction of pre-trained models has brought new tuning paradigms to CIL. In this paper, we revisit different parameter-efficient tuning (PET) methods within the context of continual learning. We observe that adapter tuning demonstrates superiority over prompt-based methods, even without parameter expansion in each learning session. Motivated by this, we propose incrementally tuning the shared adapter without imposing parameter update constraints, enhancing the learning capacity of the backbone. Additionally, we employ feature sampling from stored prototypes to retrain a unified classifier, further improving its performance. We estimate the semantic shift of old prototypes without access to past samples and update stored prototypes session by session. Our proposed method eliminates model expansion and avoids retaining any image samples. It surpasses previous pre-trained model-based CIL methods and demonstrates remarkable continual learning capabilities. Experimental results on five CIL benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.

In this article, we study the parameterized complexity of the Set Cover problem restricted to semi-ladder-free hypergraphs, a class defined by Fabianski et al. [Proceedings of STACS 2019]. We observe that two algorithms introduced by Langerman and Morin [Discrete & Computational Geometry 2005] in the context of geometric covering problems can be adapted to this setting, yielding simple FPT and kernelization algorithms for Set Cover in semi-ladder-free hypergraphs. We complement our algorithmic results with a compression lower bound for the problem, which proves the tightness of our kernelization under standard complexity-theoretic assumptions.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

Recent works have shown a reduction from contextual bandits to online regression under a realizability assumption [Foster and Rakhlin, 2020, Foster and Krishnamurthy, 2021]. In this work, we investigate the use of neural networks for such online regression and associated Neural Contextual Bandits (NeuCBs). Using existing results for wide networks, one can readily show a {O}(T) regret for online regression with square loss, which via the reduction implies a {O}(K T^{3/4}) regret for NeuCBs. Departing from this standard approach, we first show a O(log T) regret for online regression with almost convex losses that satisfy QG (Quadratic Growth) condition, a generalization of the PL (Polyak-\L ojasiewicz) condition, and that have a unique minima. Although not directly applicable to wide networks since they do not have unique minima, we show that adding a suitable small random perturbation to the network predictions surprisingly makes the loss satisfy QG with unique minima. Based on such a perturbed prediction, we show a {O}(log T) regret for online regression with both squared loss and KL loss, and subsequently convert these respectively to mathcal{O}(KT) and mathcal{O}(KL^* + K) regret for NeuCB, where L^* is the loss of the best policy. Separately, we also show that existing regret bounds for NeuCBs are Omega(T) or assume i.i.d. contexts, unlike this work. Finally, our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that our algorithms, especially the one based on KL loss, persistently outperform existing algorithms.

Diffusion models have emerged as a formidable tool for training-free conditional generation.However, a key hurdle in inference-time guidance techniques is the need for compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network for estimating the guidance direction. Moreover, these techniques often require handcrafted parameter tuning on a case-by-case basis. Although some recent works have introduced minimal compute methods for linear inverse problems, a generic lightweight guidance solution to both linear and non-linear guidance problems is still missing. To this end, we propose Dreamguider, a method that enables inference-time guidance without compute-heavy backpropagation through the diffusion network. The key idea is to regulate the gradient flow through a time-varying factor. Moreover, we propose an empirical guidance scale that works for a wide variety of tasks, hence removing the need for handcrafted parameter tuning. We further introduce an effective lightweight augmentation strategy that significantly boosts the performance during inference-time guidance. We present experiments using Dreamguider on multiple tasks across multiple datasets and models to show the effectiveness of the proposed modules. To facilitate further research, we will make the code public after the review process.

The optimization algorithm and its hyperparameters can significantly affect the training speed and resulting model accuracy in machine learning applications. The wish list for an ideal optimizer includes fast and smooth convergence to low error, low computational demand, and general applicability. Our recently introduced continual resilient (CoRe) optimizer has shown superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art first-order gradient-based optimizers for training lifelong machine learning potentials. In this work we provide an extensive performance comparison of the CoRe optimizer and nine other optimization algorithms including the Adam optimizer and resilient backpropagation (RPROP) for diverse machine learning tasks. We analyze the influence of different hyperparameters and provide generally applicable values. The CoRe optimizer yields best or competitive performance in every investigated application, while only one hyperparameter needs to be changed depending on mini-batch or batch learning.