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BKSY BlackSky, the Most Interesting Space Stock You Haven't Heard Of
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BlackSky owns a constellation of satellites that produce near real-time high-resolution imagery. Yesterday they successfully put the first of Gen-3 satellites into orbit with the help of Rocket Lab.
[https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-successfully-launches-60th-electron-first-of-multiple-missions-for-blacksky/](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-successfully-launches-60th-electron-first-of-multiple-missions-for-blacksky/)
The Gen-3 boasts an impressive step up vs Gen-2. Including:
\- 30 min delivery
\- 35 cm resolution
\- performant in low light
https://preview.redd.it/zv45212lteke1.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c588781a689debbdda90cade1d25f740b7298a
What impresses me about the company is that have an absolutely ridiculous cadence of contracts announcements. We are talking new contracts week after week after week.
https://preview.redd.it/srlxn6g8weke1.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=396635b4408c866ab77a3571771e993c9db90b14
This has resulted produced a smooth as butter compounding machine that has recently inflected to positive ebidtda.
https://preview.redd.it/49f0wdblweke1.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bba22e008adc454b1a6bc6f9731ede73b71897b
As far as valuation goes, it stacks of pretty damn nice. For example, far better grow and lower ev / sales multiple compared to it's closest peer PL.
https://preview.redd.it/o0wzghh2xeke1.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa27eef224ebe52a3ac67bfde8c6bf4e03384765
Back in the day they had a strategic partnership with PLTR. Not notably sure if it is still ongoing:
[https://www.blacksky.com/blacksky-secures-investment-from-palantir-and-enters-into-multi-year-strategic-partnership-following-successful-pilot-project/](https://www.blacksky.com/blacksky-secures-investment-from-palantir-and-enters-into-multi-year-strategic-partnership-following-successful-pilot-project/)
In sum, I think BKSY occupies a really interesting niche (high res, low latency imagery) that will likely be able to command really nice margins over time. And they have the benefit of a good liquidity and positive growth, so probably don't need to worry about being hammered by financing - as is the typical case with satellite companies - all that much.
I am rolling with a good slug of commons, and some calls for extra juice.
https://preview.redd.it/llssghcjxeke1.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ab5baedaff593425123cb81df6e6a7e161311b
https://preview.redd.it/sgxu3qrmxeke1.png?width=339&format=png&auto=webp&s=75a23bf587474d8ab210950f7d804fb998764bee
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Dropbox $DBX is about to Drop (50k 0dte puts)
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Ok i'll make it short, too much text and graph would make me looks smart wich would be misleading.
My DD is based on the simple fact that analyst estimates for Q4 are way too optimistic. You can see (despite beat) a decline/flatening of the EPS.
Coupled with the rise of expectation (pic 2) it could lead to a miss and a similar situation than Feb 2024.
We also know for a fact that GOOG and MSFT missed expectations for their Cloud sector wich is the main revenue source from dropdox.
Pos : aroubd 50k in puts, see pic 4 and 5
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WMT Earnings and the Impending Selloff(🌈🐻 porn)
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TLDR: WMT paints bleak picture of 2025, market goes down
Alright guys, I’ve got my FD’s locked and loaded. It’s not a huge play, only 3K worth, but they’re out the money and very short expiry. I think WMT is going to tank the market tomorrow. Walmart has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to the US economy. Being the largest retailer, it gives a good snapshot into the overall health of the American consumer. Because of this, I think Walmart’s forecast tomorrow will be far bleaker than people are expecting, and the extremely out of touch stock market will get a reality check. Here’s why:
1. Consumers are tapped out. Debt is at an all time high. Delinquencies on credit cards and loans are at an all time high. You may say, “doesn’t this benefit Walmart since they are a discount retailer?” Absolutely, and we’ve seen Walmart killing it for the last year for this reason. Even higher income individuals have turned to Walmart to save money. But at some point, people just don’t have enough to spend on non-essentials. So while Walmart continues to do fairly well, every other business begins to struggle and we start to hear rumblings of the R word.
2. Slowing retail sales. We saw a 1% drop in sales in January when only a 0.2% drop was expected. Thats fairly significant, especially for the most important retailer in the US. Just another piece that says that people aren’t spending nearly as much.
3. Inflation. It’s back, and will get worse with the current administrations policies. You may say “wont that benefit businesses?”. Yes it can, but if no one has any more money to spend, it wont. Remember, during Covid everyone was saving money. We couldn’t spend on experiences like bowling and cruises and what not. Well over the past couple years, we HAVE been spending on experiences. A lot. And not many people have much money left to spend on anything else. So prices rising will mean greater costs for businesses, and they wont see the same spending patterns that they’ve been seeing since 2021.
4. Tariffs. This is a known, but we don’t know what they’re going to say about their forecast regarding tariffs. About 60-70% of Walmart’s goods are imported from China. Walmart accounts for 11% of ALL US imports from China. These tariffs absolutely will affect them in some fashion. Did they increase prices late last year to offset the cost? Are they planning to increase soon? We’ll find out. But one things is for sure: they will be increasing prices to strain an already overstrained consumer.
5. Higher rates for longer. I don’t think we will see a cut this year. We simply cannot. The new administration will fight tooth and nail for it, but i dont see Powell budging. Inflation will continue to rise as more workers are deported and business increase their prices to combat tariffs. Higher rates means M2 will continue to decline, reduced borrowing, and reduced spending.
6. Layoffs. Walmart has recently cut over a thousand jobs. This will probably be good thing for the company simply in terms of less costs, but they are one of many companies(Porsche, Salesforce, Workday, Amazon, Meta…) that have laid off a very significant number of employees recently. Again, good for the particular business, bad for the overall economy.
7. Valuation. Walmart has been on an insane tear all year. It has been absolutely killing earnings, and honestly i think they’ll kill this one. But their guidance will be much softer than analysts are expecting. Walmart’s P/E ratio is 42.88, that multiple will likely have to be reset if guidance is not stellar enough to justify the current stock price.
8. Astrology. For those that like crayons as much as i do, I’ve included a few charts. The main thing i want you to notice is the massive bearish divergences on WMT’s daily AND weekly charts, as well as SPY and QQQ(which looks like the weaker of the two). Volume on the indices has been non-existent as well. By market close today, 24 million shares of SPY had been traded(more were traded after market). I could only find 3 instances of the volume being that low since 2010. And it’s been like that for a few days.
All the signs of an impending recession are there, but the market has ignored everything so far. I’m betting 3K in FD’s that the market starts taking those warnings seriously tomorrow and into Friday. It is very likely I will lose this money, and that’s ok, it’s just for fun. But I’ll be very happy if I was able to put the pieces together and see this before it happens. If you made it this far, I appreciate you reading.
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BOIL too far too fast. Pseudoscience and confirmation bias on why it will go down.
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BOIL which is a leveraged natural gas futures ETF has gone up faster than my dick when I first saw my best friends sister in a thong. To quantify how hard my dick was in the past 5 days BOIL is up 42%. Some quick pseudoscience on what has happened since 2024 when BOIL has been up 30% in a 5 days span:
1. Jan 2 → Jan 9, 2024 (≈ +41.0%)
• Next 5-day return (Jan 10–Jan 17): ≈ –16.4%
2. May 15 → May 22, 2024 (≈ +30.3%)
• Next 5-day return (May 23–May 30): ≈ –27.9%
3. Jun 4 → Jun 11, 2024 (≈ +40.2%)
• Next 5-day return (Jun 12–Jun 18): ≈ –13.9%
4. Feb 11 → Feb 19, 2025 (≈ +42%)
• Tomorrow.
To add to that at 10:30 am tomorrow the Natty Gas EIA report will come out with an expectation of a draw of -193 bcf for the week. That’s a huge expectation, classic sell the news event after a big run up.
All of this cold weather priced in, asteroid hitting earth in 2032 freezing the earth priced in, AI increase for natty gas you guessed it priced in. Time to buy KOLD the BOIL inverse.
My position 3,871 shares of KOLD. Holding for next 5 days or so.
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Is FTAI a Goldmine or Fraud? A Special Situation With Hedge Fund Action
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Alright, strap in and keep your seatbacks in the upright position because we’re about to take off into the best jet engine showdown since someone tried to fit an F-35 into a Spirit Airlines budget.
Now, I bought FTAI with the highly sophisticated investing strategy of “stock go down much, now stock go up” via a method I like to call Financial Darwinism. Thank you, past self, for your wisdom. I found out in a comment thread on a different post that apparently there are hedge funds brawling this one out which IMHO means we might get much hotter volatility:
🚨 **In the blue corner:** Crossroads Capital, betting big that FTAI is a misunderstood gem with *huge* upside.
🔥 **In the red corner:** Muddy Waters, yelling “accounting fraud!” like a finance bro who just discovered forensic auditing.
The stock’s been on a rollercoaster. Got hard dunked by a short report dove 50% and now on the mend. Here's the diligence you didn't know you needed to either wake up rich or staring into your brokerage account like the black box of a Boeing.
# Company Info & Key Developments
FTAI mooned from $17 to \~$175 between 2022 and 2025 because it shifted from aircraft leasing to high-margin engine services. In Jan 2025, Muddy Waters Research released a short report, alleging FTAI inflates earnings by misclassifying one-time engine sales as recurring revenue and artificially boosts EBITDA margins.
Timeline:
* 2022-2024: FTAI transitions from leasing to engine maintenance; stock climbs $17 → $175.
* Jan 15, 2025: Muddy Waters releases a short report, claiming 80% of EBITDA comes from asset sales.
* Jan 18, 2025: FTAI’s Audit Committee launches an internal review and warns of potential 10-K delay.
* Jan 21, 2025: Stock crashes to \~$85, down nearly 50% from its peak.
* Late Jan 2025: Crossroads Capital defends FTAI, calling the selloff an overreaction.
* Early Feb 2025: FTAI signals 10-K will likely be filed on time; stock stabilizes around $100-$120.
* Upcoming: Audit results and 10-K expected soon—this will dictate the stock’s next move.
# The Players: Two Hedge Funds, Opposing Theses
**Muddy Waters (Bear Case – Short)**
Carson Block’s Muddy Waters Research is an activist short fund with a track record of exposing corporate misrepresentation.
Their Claim:
* FTAI misclassifies whole engine sales as maintenance revenue to exaggerate aftermarket growth.
* Up to 80% of EBITDA comes from asset sales, not true recurring services.
* Accounting maneuvers inflate margins, making the stock dangerously overvalued.
Muddy Waters expects the audit to confirm these concerns, sending the stock much lower.
**Crossroads Capital (Bull Case – Long)**
Ryan O’Connor’s Crossroads Capital is a deep-value hedge fund specializing in misunderstood businesses.
Their Thesis:
* FTAI’s accounting is complex but not fraudulent—Muddy Waters is twisting the narrative.
* A shift to clearer accounting in 2025 will remove confusion and boost transparency.
* CFM56 engine demand is surging, and FTAI is well-positioned.
* The stock’s collapse was an overreaction, creating a massive buying opportunity.
Crossroads sees FTAI re-rating to $150+ once the audit clears.
# Options Market: I Have No Idea What I'm Talking About
Implied Volatility Is Extreme
* IV is at 90-100%, meaning traders expect huge swings
* Heavy bets on both upside and downside
* March and April options have the highest open interest
* Put/call ratio is 0.77 so market leans slightly bullish
* Large positions in both calls and puts
Unusual Institutional Moves
* $3.1M in notional value traded in March $90 calls
* Hundreds of March $100 puts bought in large sweeps (institutional hedging?)
* High OI in calls
[Long the stock at $116.99](https://preview.redd.it/froubr60s5ke1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aba036f0b46fce3fd2ab06bc8bc90054edfeadd6)
**TLDR:** The market clearly expects a massive event but is split on direction. Even if it's fraud this fraud is management's full time job and they're apparently good at it.
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$SENS - The Sleeper Stock Set to Disrupt the $20B CGM Market with a Life-Changing 365-Day Sensor
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Hi Everyone,
Senseonics Holdings ($SENS), has been on my radar for quite some time, and I finally believe it's time for this company to take off. I first got into SENS back in the beginning of 2021, when it ran from pennies to dollars. This run was caused by hype around their Continuous Glucose Monitor products (CGM) that last 180 days, and 365 days, the important one being their CGM that lasts 365 days, called Eversense. Here is a brief explanation of a CGM:
Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGMs) are medical devices designed to track blood glucose levels in real time throughout the day and night. They are primarily used by people with diabetes to help manage their condition more effectively, reducing the need for frequent fingerstick tests and providing a more comprehensive view of glucose trends.
How CGMs Work:
1. A small sensor is inserted under the skin (usually on the arm or abdomen) to measure glucose levels in interstitial fluid.
2. The sensor connects to a transmitter, which sends glucose data to a smartphone, receiver, or insulin pump.
3. Users can see their glucose readings at any time, track trends, and receive alerts for high or low blood sugar levels.
Dexcom, one of the leading CGM providers in diabetes cares CGM sensor only lasts up to 10 days, and transmitter only lasts up to 90 days. A CGM that lasts a full year is a complete game changer for diabetic patients. This product being available, means they no longer have to prick themselves, or get their sensors implanted every few months.
The problem, back in 2021, was that both the 180 day and 365 day CGMs were pre-FDA approval. Unfortunately, myself, and other investors, underestimated the time it would take this company to both file and be approved for selling of the 365 day CGM. This caused a loss of interest and investors to pull-out as they realized that it would take years for this product to materialize. However, that approval came late last year, and after 3 years of remaining sidelined and watching the company develop, I have decided it is time to reinvest in $SENS as their 365-day Eversense CGM is fully on the market in 2025.
**The following reasons are why I believe it is time for SENS to expand and take its place as the leader of CGM systems for diabetes management, overthrowing Dexcom.**
\# 1 - The Longest-Lasting CGM on the Market
Senseonics 365-Day CGM, Eversense, is the first CGM with a full-year lifespan, significantly reducing the burden of frequent sensor replacements.
The Eversense CGM offers a Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD) of 8.5%, making it among the most accurate CGMs available.
\#2 - Expanding Insurance Coverage - A Key Growth Driver
Insurance adoption has been a major factor in CGM market expansion. While initially limited, coverage for Eversense has been steadily improving, including:
* Medicare Coverage: In February 2022, Medicare expanded coverage to include Eversense for eligible users.
* Private Insurers: Many large U.S. insurers, including Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, and Aetna, have begun covering Eversense, improving affordability and adoption.
* State Medicaid Programs: Multiple Medicaid programs have included Eversense in their CGM coverage, increasing accessibility.
As CGMs become standard for diabetes management, more insurers are likely to cover long-term CGMs like Eversense, which could significantly boost adoption.
\#3 - European Market Expansion & 365-Day CGM Approval
Senseonics has submitted an application for European regulatory approval for its 365-day Eversense sensor, which could give it a significant first-mover advantage in the long-term CGM segment.
* Europe has less restrictive reimbursement policies than the U.S., potentially allowing for faster adoption.
* If approved, this would make Eversense the only full-year CGM on the market, setting it apart from competitors.
* Success in Europe would provide critical data and a commercialization roadmap for future U.S. approval.
\#4 - Search for an Insulin Pump Partner – Key to the Closed-Loop System Market
CGMs are essential for automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which integrate CGMs with insulin pumps to create closed-loop “artificial pancreas” systems.
* Dexcom and Abbott already have partnerships with major insulin pump manufacturers like Tandem Diabetes Care ($TNDM) and Insulet ($PODD).
* Senseonics has expressed interest in partnering with an insulin pump manufacturer, which would open significant revenue streams and allow Eversense to integrate into the growing AID market.
* A partnership could increase CGM adoption as patients prefer seamless integration between their glucose monitoring and insulin delivery systems.
\#5 - Expanding Diabetes Market
* Global Diabetes Population: Over 537 million people worldwide have diabetes, projected to reach 783 million by 2045.
* CGM Market Expansion: Currently valued at over $20 billion, the CGM market is growing at a 10-12% CAGR, fueled by:
* Rising diabetes prevalence.
* Increased adoption of CGMs as the standard of care.
* Expanding insurance reimbursement for CGM devices.
* The growing trend of automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which require CGMs for glucose data.
**Catalysts to Make Senseonics Take Off In The Near Future:**
1. Earnings Report on March 3rd - 2025 being the first full-year that Eversense is approved, Senseonics is expected to raise revenue guidance for 2025, and have grown revenue year over year from 2023 to 2024
2. Europe Approval - Senseonics filed for approval to sell Eversense in Europe, this month, and should receive decision on the next two months. Getting approved, and having access to this market, would be very bullish.
3. Cancellation of Reverse Split - With Senseonics recent price action, they have been able to cancel the need of a reverse split. Confirmation of this during the earnings call, will ensure investors that the future is bright for Senseonics.
4. Pump Partner Announcement - The anticipation for Senseonics to announce a pump partner has been big amongst investors, and is thought to be imminent with Eversenses 365 day approval last year.
After being too early, I sat and watched this stock for 3 full-years, and now believe it is time for Senseonics to make the right moves, and take off.
Senseonics is positioned for significant growth as it expands insurance coverage, seeks European regulatory approval for its 365-day CGM, and explores insulin pump partnerships. While adoption hurdles and financial risks remain, the company’s first-mover advantage in long-term CGMs could allow it to carve out a meaningful share of the growing CGM market.
Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/y7e12ui331ke1.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdfd75574545c4b53025c0cb80fcefcbe989189c
https://preview.redd.it/vxlnt9q431ke1.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=45b7651a456cfb764e60bbbe879f3e7c6ca0848d
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You're not getting any inheritance. [DD]
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Fries in the bag, chud.
You're not getting the inheritance you thought you were. Nana's bagholding life, and she's not going to let the suits take it from her without a fight.
**PART 1: The Setup**
https://preview.redd.it/97p7mlj7oxje1.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f31f08a9ec7a038a13bff2fd9eb4be8dca05255e
Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is booming, and has no plans on stopping any time soon. The primary culprit is an aging population and long life expectancy, layered on a for-profit medical structure in the U.S.
https://preview.redd.it/i76cmpyeoxje1.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=899d4f8f877b3b7d529eca3ef12b49ec0cc927c3
Over time, the proportion of the elderly U.S. population is projected to skyrocket, especially among the oldest cohorts.
[U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. \(2020\)](https://preview.redd.it/9yrd2d9koxje1.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6796deeb368b85147b7981fe9104fb051e8b7f8)
And that inheritance your parents and grandparents have been bragging about for decades is getting dumped into long term care at a 10% CAGR.
https://preview.redd.it/iot8vl7uoxje1.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=990a8b60a91e93aeb5acdf76fe010c5c04758815
Fortunately, this is a trend even the most PLTR full-ported regard can understand.
People get old, old people are sick, sick people pay for healthcare, and in particular, old people pay for long term care (LTC).
https://preview.redd.it/edolo102pxje1.png?width=1216&format=png&auto=webp&s=355e6331c2c2b2f4ab085f63f07c8235ff4595f9
So, how do you play it?
**PART 2: The Play**
Surprisingly, even with a braindead growth thesis, leaders in long term care are trading below conservative estimates of intrinsic value. Let's focus on some leaders: $PNTG, $NHC, $ADUS, $ENSG, $HCA
Of course, the meat of the thesis is future growth. All we know for sure about these companies is their track record. However, buying companies at low multiples to their historic operating incomes is never a bad idea, especially if there is no reason to believe they would suddenly lose that income stream.
Pennant Group Inc ($PNTG) is in Home Health and Hospice Services, and Senior Living Services.
Trading at 900M Marketcap, you're getting 13% CAGR on 35M in operating income. 25X operating income growing at 13% without any sign of stopping is already compelling.
https://preview.redd.it/1sepjddcqxje1.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=703dccd68f8aea1f8c76197e8bfd897169d3d339
National HealthCare Corporation ($NHC) is in skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. The valuation is even more compelling.
For 1.6B Marketcap, you're getting 6% CAGR on 20X operating income.
https://preview.redd.it/1umqjgakqxje1.png?width=1182&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7faa43a1ea1b4998c7fd1272a1f1a8599c1975a
But the best bit is your balance sheet. The company is trading at 1.6X P/B
https://preview.redd.it/w1grfqurqxje1.png?width=505&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d115278be69d4eb32865bc4a9265ed2eb486ede
Backing out the book value and goodwill, and then applying a conservative discount to book value at 700M. Subtract this from the 1.6B market cap, and for 900M market cap minus book value, you're getting \~80M in operating income with at least 6% growth. Pretty compelling.
Addus Homecare ($ADUS) looks great as well.
https://preview.redd.it/tvaewaafrxje1.png?width=1191&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb63ab66587a6e3e417a2a60f072f9519d45de86
At 2B Marketcap, you're paying 20X operating income for 10% CAGR. Already compelling, but just like $NHC, you're also getting a massive margin of safety with a thicc book value.
https://preview.redd.it/39pmepmkrxje1.png?width=495&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b1a5f58574e368109f82a38a42953ee14205466
The Ensign Group ($ENSG) is the largest of these LTC providers. At 7.3B Marketcap, you're getting the company for a little over 20X operating income.
https://preview.redd.it/qyiwa9forxje1.png?width=1192&format=png&auto=webp&s=33076da03d71ae103f88c18b676b0267df082c3c
You might expect their growth to be lower being the largest player, but they have the highest CAGR of them all at 13%. Combined with a larger moat, better margins than the other players, it's incredible that this has such a reasonable multiple to income.
Finally, I want to throw in HCA Healthcare ($HCA), as it's a Michael Burry long and tangent to the thesis at reasonable valuation. They own and operate hospitals. Little less sexy as I think hospitals have riskier revenue streams, but the company has a ridiculous moat in hospital operations as the largest player by a mile. They're even bigger than the VA.
https://preview.redd.it/g6l1m67esxje1.png?width=1201&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd9bd983f28ef788634a67195092b1a2c50dfb78
78B Market cap, 7.8X operating income. No brainer valuation here, and it helps widen the net of exposure to the thesis.
TLDR: Nana’s inheritance = my tendies. Boomers are bagholding life, and LTC stocks are going to benefit. $PNTG $NHC $ADUS $ENSG $HCA for reasonably valued plays.
My positions:
https://preview.redd.it/9r5voxb2txje1.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=a14cdd18208d1ec3c3f0948c05c30f1ee4153807
https://preview.redd.it/8yvds7c2txje1.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=11890e21e54ecab685f6b6801a598b7515d900c9
https://preview.redd.it/81wbnxb2txje1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=35b1113978815f329ceb96e37b08221e6e1487a6
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$PARA YOLO - Undervalued Giant with Massive Upside Potential
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**Paramount Global ($PARA) is an undervalued giant hiding in plain sight.** The misunderstood fundamentals and exaggerated expectation for the death of traditional media has fueled a shockingly unique opportunity on a company that is fundamentally sound and poised for future growth due to its incredibly strong brands. Despite its negative reputation due to the Shari Redstone mismanagement of M&A and the difficulty that traditional media companies have been facing, $PARA is a massively undervalued media powerhouse with legendary brands in CBS, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, MTV, Paramount Pictures, etc. This company is a media giant trading at fire sale prices. With a laughably low P/S ratio (\~0.24) and EV/EBITDA (\~5x), PARA is far cheaper than its competitors despite looking poised for a recovery, especially with the looming Skydance merger.
**Fundamentals:**
The fundamentals are honestly simple to me. Paramount has been struggling over the last few years to escape the difficulties that traditional media companies have been facing. They have been ineffective at creating enough revenue and operational efficiency/ focus to make any meaningful impact in their debt since about 2018 when their debt initially exploded upwards. Because of these factors, Wall Street and Retail have both soured on Paramount.
Paramount+ has been relatively successful, but the investment has not justified the returns thus far, however this aspect of their business has been steadily improving. In their last quarterly report, Paramount+ added 3.5M new subscribers, showing that the platform is still bringing in new customers. Beyond this, Paramount has exceptionally strong brands that are not going to die, no matter what comes of the future of media.
To further embolden the case for the intrinsic value hidden within Paramount, here are some of Paramount's Notable Brands: All of CBS, BET, Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon, Showtime, and quite a few more, with all associated brand IP (think SpongeBob, South Park, Avatar, The Daily Show, etc.). Point being, **these are brands that people interact with CONSTANTLY. Hours and hours of attention is spent on these brands each day.** And despite network cable’s viewership “decreasing”, CBS is still the #1 channel and rakes in about 4.8ish million viewers per day. Attention is the most valuable commodity in our world. Monetization of the traditional media platforms has been challenging, but with new leadership and the huge investment being made, **I am betting that they see incredible opportunity for growth with this company.**
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that there are quite a few things that have been stacked against this stock for a long time, most notably the situation with 70% of controlling shares being held by Shari Redstone, who managed the company abysmally and ruined a potentially lucrative buyout for shareholders, making further M&A negotiations chaotic and unpredictable. However, she agreed to sell her control of the company in July of 2024 to Skydance, who will now be controlling the company with their current CEO, David Ellison (the son of Larry Ellison). **Shari being gone and competent leadership coming into the scene is a huge, huge deal. This merger has created a very unique situation for $PARA, which I believe to be a win-win for investors.**
Honestly, though, all of this is drivel. **What matters to me with the Paramount fundamentals is this**:
*Paramount's Market Cap:* $8B flat
*Paramount's TTM Revenue:* $28.9B
*Price to Book Ratio:* .43
*Price to Sales Ratio:* .24 (compare this to Netflix's PS ratio of 11.76, or even $WBD's of .64)
*EV / EBITDA:* \~5x (compare with Netflix of 17x, Disney \~10x)
The debt situation I have seen so much negative sentiment about online appears to be utterly overblown and I honestly don't see how people think this company is financially dying. Let me sum it up as follows:
*Debt to equity:* .94 (fine)
*Debt to assets:* .34 (good)
*Quick ratio:* 1.10
*Net margin:* \-.06 (trending better, hope this flips positive again soon, but I don't see reason for concern)
QoQ Total and Net Debt has been trending DOWN since Q2 2020
Free cash flow has been stably positive since Q3 of 2023, currently at $762M TTM
*Cash on hand:* $2.44B
Skydance merger will immediately inject $1.5B in capital once closed
There are deep value stocks, then there are…….. you know the rest.
**Technicals:**
Getting into the chart it seems evident to me that price has been pushed down about as far as it can be without something fundamentally changing. I like to buy my stocks at lows and sell them at highs (don’t you?). As you look through my TA, think about whether this price seems like a low or a high to you.
There are 3 timeframes that I will focus on; the monthly, weekly, and daily.
Please note that **current price is $11.30** at the time of writing this post
*Monthly*
https://preview.redd.it/yb9zabv1jxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=26f05db27a086c13828f255c0689bd27baeeef07
Macro Point of Control: $10.66 (price is above)
Macro Fibonacci Golden Pocket: $10.44-$11.68 (price is within and has held as strong support)
RSI: Bounced off bear zone and has been steadily (though slowly) rising since Feb 2024
MACD: Bullish divergence printed Oct 2023, has been steadily green and rising since Feb 2024, signal cross up in Jan 2024
Lastly, volume has been seeing some pretty significant influxes throughout this downtrend it’s been in since 2021 and volume has been consistently higher during this 4-year trend than it’s been at really any point since the 2008/2009 market shenanigans. This may indicate accumulation, especially so since 2024.
*Weekly*
https://preview.redd.it/r8rhzvd4jxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=475549c3ca26b39b7f689e96e32796ae2050af68
The consolidation in the golden pocket is really beautiful. The fact that you had a significant bounce from the .65 to the .5 *exactly* confirms the validity of using fibs on this chart and solidifies this golden pocket range as very strong support.
The weekly Bollinger Bands have squeezed to their 3rd tightest width in the history of this stock, and the narrowest they've been since January of 2018. Generally speaking, tight BBs lead to explosive price breakouts.
MACD and RSI have been printing bullish divergence for 3 years without much, if any, positive price action following. In my opinion this *will* change. Reversal in trend *is* imminent. There is a looming catalyst for this to reverse when the company reports earnings on Feb 26.
https://preview.redd.it/0tv16j253yje1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ef26c06db90cd9260b5f2553edfc3083c08b635
The Weekly ADX is actually beautiful. This is one of the lowest ADX values I've ever seen on a weekly chart for a company as big as $PARA, and it's starting to curl up. Simultaneously DMI+ is going up while DMI- is going down. This looks similar to the ADX setups $TSLA had in October of 2012 before a 535% run, $UPST had in June of 2024 before a 350% run (this one looks the most structurally similar to $PARA in many ways), $COST had in June of 2024 before a 100%+ run, $BABA in Apr 2024 before an 82% run, $INTC in June of 2017 before an 73% run, and $DIS before a 56% run. What I can't find is similar ADX setups that didn't have significant breakouts up or down.
https://preview.redd.it/ppnb1c0fjxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=96a4a872f8458bf897d8c5ca09e9899dd67dbf57
And how about a Triple Bottom on the weekly RSI just to further solidify my position of being on the precipice of a bullish breakout. It's not perfect, but chart patterns rarely are, and its close enough to be very intriguing.
*Daily*
https://preview.redd.it/w0b9k1h63yje1.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac18eef8caa65fbfc7c372e9b433b0d49cfa6a11
There are two chart patterns that are completing/ have completed. One is a falling wedge; the other is a pennant. The falling wedge has a price target of approximately $25. The pennant has a price target of approximately $5.26. Do you think it’s more likely that this company halves in value again, down to a $4b market cap, or *returns to a more reasonable valuation* of \~ $20b market cap?
There are also numerous gaps to the upside on the chart that I expect to be filled once a bullish trend reappears. Gaps are from \~$19-$23, \~$34.50-$36, and \~$85-$91.25.
https://preview.redd.it/xgawv1y73yje1.png?width=1316&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7bb02f718152b2fa47168a6ba1c20bef64b68b7
The last thing that I want to highlight for is that the 50 and 200 daily moving averages are currently in a $0.20 range. There **will** be a golden cross very, very soon if price holds above $11. Algorithmic traders will rush in when this happens.
To summarize how bullish the technicals are:
1. Consolidating in a macro golden pocket above the point of control
2. Bullish divergence on the monthly MACD
3. 9 touches of bullish divergence on the weekly RSI & MACD
4. Weekly ADX is completely cracked out and looks poised for a **massive** run
5. Weekly RSI has a triple bottom with a very bullish outlook
6. Falling wedge pattern and gaps on the chart point towards a run deep into the $20 range
7. Daily golden cross is imminent if price holds above $11
**Some fun stuff:**
Short interest is 11% and the Days to Cover is \~13. While this isn't a huge amount in comparison to some previous meme stonks, this is quite significant for a stock the size of $PARA, and the size of this position is exemplified by the days to cover. When I compared this to Paramount’s competitors, I found that it is 3x-10x the short position of any other company in the sector. Additionally, I pulled the options flow data for the last 9 months to analyze the outstanding bearish premium. What I've found is what I believe to be a ticking time bomb. There is approximately $39M in net bearish put premium that is not closed, and $4M in net bearish call premium. This means that (in my opinion based on my analysis) there is approximately **$43M (22.46M shares worth of contract, or approximately 45% of free float) in net bearish premium yet to be closed**, that, if correct, will dump gasoline on the fire of a run if $PARA begins to break out and these positions are forced to close. These are trades that I believe to be held predominantly by Hedge Funds and institutions, and I believe that they are overexposed on this trade due to the belief that $15 is a price cap until merger. If price reverses and goes beyond the $15 buyout price, a mass unwinding of these positions (both the short positions AND the bearish contracts) will have to take place as the perceived price "ceiling" could be shattered.
*Final point:* \*securing tin foil hat and preparing for berating\* I believe that the options data I analyzed has uncovered a significant arbitrage play that is in the works. This Skydance-Paramount merger arbitrage trade is a ticking time bomb. Someone has been shorting PARA near $15 and hedging with bearish put options, betting that the deal price caps upside. But if PARA breaks and holds above $15, these trades fall apart, causing the holder to potentially cover their position, put holders to unwind, and institutions to scramble to reposition. This could trigger a cascade of buying pressure, breaking the artificial price ceiling and leading to a massive price surge. If the deal is renegotiated or collapses as a result of this price action, PARA could explode MUCH higher.
**Tldr;**
Paramount Global ($PARA) is an absurdly undervalued media giant that Wall Street has pushed down as far as it can, setting up what I believe to be a uniquely explosive opportunity. Despite owning powerhouse brands like CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central, and Paramount Pictures, $PARA trades at a laughably low valuation—its P/S ratio is just 0.24, its EV/EBITDA is \~5x, and it’s generating $28.9B in revenue on an $8B market cap. Meanwhile, short interest sits around 10% (\~12+ days to cover), and I’ve identified $43M in outstanding net bearish premium (45% of free float exposed) still open, which I believe will act as gasoline on the fire if price begins to break out. Adding to the intrigue, the Skydance merger deal has created a forced price ceiling at $15, which institutions have been using to execute merger arbitrage trades—if that ceiling is broken, it could cause mass unwinding of short positions and a re-rating of the stock. Technicals are screaming reversal, with bullish divergence on multiple timeframes, the ADX setup mirroring historic breakout runs ($TSLA, $UPST, $DIS), and an imminent Golden Cross about to happen on the daily chart. If retail sentiment shifts and $PARA starts moving, this could be a perfect storm of undervaluation, squeeze potential, and institutional mispositioning, leading to a rapid and violent price correction to the upside. Everyone is sleeping on $PARA. It's time to wake up.
**Position:**
https://preview.redd.it/iej5r9gr2yje1.png?width=767&format=png&auto=webp&s=a90e58c30122ae12ab6ce4d222eb75559e4fd6c1
3,000 shares @ $11.13 cost basis
200 1/26 12.5Cs @ $.67 cost basis
*\*\*\*Disclaimer\*\*\**
*I am writing this due diligence so that other people can learn about a trade that I think may be one of my biggest trades of 2025. Every once in a while, an opportunity on a trade comes across my desk that looks so good I get genuinely excited about it. The OG meme stonk at $10 last year, mcrovst at $.20, $DOCS at $25 (these auto-post deletions based on tickers are annoying af btw) were the other 3 for me last year. I've had success with these big bets of mine in the past year, but past performance does not always indicate future success. Do not invest in something that you have not personally researched, and do not invest unless you have identified clear entry, stop losses, and exit points that work for YOU.This is not financial advice; I am merely sharing my personal excitement about a trade I am making.*
\*edit\* - I am aware of the compression causing potato quality in some of the pictures and will fix when I get a minute
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The Nebius Boys Are Trying to Speedrun the Entire AI Cloud Industry—Will It Work? ($NBIS)
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Nebius Group is the ultimate chip-on-the-shoulder company—literally. Here’s a group of ex-Yandex billionaires, sitting in Amsterdam, staring at Larry Page, Jeff Bezos, and Satya Nadella’s mega yachts, foaming at the mouth, thinking: *we built Google, Uber, and AWS for Russia, and we got stuck in Putin’s nightmare economy while these guys turned into gods.*
So now, they’re speedrunning the AI cloud industry, trying to go from zero to hyperscaler before AWS and Microsoft stomp them out. And Nvidia is helping fund it.
This company has a real shot at being Europe's AI cloud leader. They have world-class engineers, billions in cash, and might even have a cost advantage over AWS and Azure. But at $45+ per share, it’s priced like they’re already winning—and this is still an underdog story. The AI cloud market is a bloodbath. So this is either going to be a home run or an implosion.
# The AI Cloud Market: Welcome to the Thunderdome
This industry is a $260 billion warzone with three daddy figures—AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud that are \~70% of the market.
These guys print more money in a quarter than Nebius might generate in a decade. They have:
* Infinite cash (Nebius has $2B in cash; Microsoft just spent $10B on CoreWeave *alone*).
* Economies of scale (AWS probably gets better GPU pricing from Nvidia than Nebius ever will).
* Enterprise lock-in (Why switch to Nebius when AWS is integrated directly into your liver and kidneys?).
Then there’s CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, and every other AI cloud startup trying to steal GPU market share. These guys are expanding, backed by real American VCs who are smarter than me, and not run by bitter Russians on a redemption arc.
If Nebius wants to win, they need to execute perfectly and scale faster than anyone expects.
# How Could This Play Out?
**Base Case (Most Likely)**
* Revenue grows to \~$1B in 2025 (in line with guidance).
* EBITDA is still negative due to high expansion costs.
* Stock price remains volatile but stabilizes around $35-$50 as execution risks become clearer.
**Bull Case (They Actually Win)**
* Nebius dominates AI cloud in Europe, taking market share from AWS.
* They hit $5-6B in revenue by 2030, reaching Azure-like margins.
* Stock goes to $100+, Nvidia buys a bigger stake, and Volozh finally gets a James Bond villain mega yacht.
**Bear Case (They Get Crushed)**
* AWS and Azure drop prices and build up trust in the EU, Nvidia pulls the rug, and Nebius is stuck paying top dollar for GPUs while customers go elsewhere.
* They burn through cash, have to dilute heavily, and stock collapses to $10-$15.
* Arkady Volozh sells GPUs on Telegram to stay afloat.
At $45+ per share, the stock is already priced for the Base Case five years out. The risk-reward setup here is not great for new buyers.
# How The Boys From Moscow Win
**"AI-Native Cloud" – Supposedly Can Compete with Hyperscalers**
* Nebius isn’t just another cloud company—it’s a full-stack AI-native platform.
* Their cloud software is optimized for AI, which means lower costs and higher efficiency for AI workloads.
* AWS and Azure are generalists—Nebius can win by being the best AI cloud for AI companies.
**20-25% Cheaper Than AWS and Azure**
* This is the whole bet—that Nebius can undercut the big guys on price.
* If they can maintain this cost advantage, they can steal AI-native customers from hyperscalers.
* Nvidia’s backing gets them GPUs, but they still have to build and scale fast to maintain this lead.
**Nvidia’s Blessing (For Now)**
* Nvidia invested in Nebius, which means priority GPU access.
* If Nebius gets first dibs on Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell chips, it could attract AI startups looking for top-tier hardware.
* But let’s be clear—Nvidia is not loyal. The second they find a better opportunity, they’ll cut and run (see: SoundHound).
**Europe Needs an AI Cloud Leader**
* Europe is a regulatory nightmare, and US tech giants don’t want to deal with it. More data sovereignty laws (which the EU *loves)* could make Nebius the AI cloud default for EU businesses.
* Nebius is positioning itself as the “European AI cloud”, investing $1B+ in EU data centers.
* If they become the default AI cloud in Europe, this stock could explode higher.
# How The Boys From Moscow Fail
**Capital Intensity – This Industry Will Eat Them Alive**
* AI cloud is one of the most expensive businesses on Earth.
* AWS, Microsoft, and Google have an infinite budget.
* Nebius has $2B in cash, but they’ll burn through it fast. They will have to raise more money.
**Nvidia Is Just Paying Itself**
* Nvidia’s investment isn’t a vote of confidence—it’s a revenue stream.
* Nebius needs GPUs, Nvidia needs to sell them—it’s a match made in financial engineering.
* If Nvidia sees better opportunities elsewhere, they’ll ditch Nebius like they did SoundHound.
**Execution Risk – No Room for Error**
* Expanding a cloud business is ridiculously hard.
* If Nebius mismanages scaling, pricing, or infrastructure, they’re dead.
* They have to grow exponentially while competing against trillion-dollar giants.
**Geopolitical Luggage**
* They may be Dutch on paper, but their leadership team is still Russian.
* Some big U.S. clients might hesitate to trust them, no matter how “Western” they claim to be.
* If EU regulators suddenly turn hostile, Nebius could be screwed.
# Final Verdict: If You’re Buying at $45+, You Better Believe in Magic
Nebius is not cheap. At $45, it’s already pricing in hypergrowth, flawless execution, and Nvidia’s continued blessing.
**The Big Question: Do You Trust These Guys to Pull It Off?**
* If you think Volozh and his team are mad geniuses who will stop at nothing to get rich, buy it.
* If you think AWS, Azure, and CoreWeave will crush them like a bug, stay away.
At $25-$30 per share, Nebius would be a high-risk, high-reward AI bet. At $45+ per share, it’s degenerate gambling.
They have potential, but so did a thousand other cloud startups before them. If you’re buying at these levels, you better believe in destiny, vengeance, and the raw power of resentment-fueled innovation.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
[I’m in at $33.62.](https://preview.redd.it/uui1cjseexje1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=452a1d9367ed6983b7acdc049b13c61559a3cc48)
I'm long Nebius and I put together the above analysis.
**TLDR:** My analysis indicates Nebius Group is priced to take off as hyperscaler. But this is going to be a capital-intensive bloodbath with Russians vs. trillion-dollar American megacaps who print more cash in a quarter than Nebius will see in five years. **At $45+ per share, you have to be clinically insane to gamble on this before earnings.** On the bright side, this management team might not get the best GPU pricing, but they probably do have an endless supply of cheap blow to enjoy while daydreaming about Larry Ellison-like villain arcs.
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$DBX: Dropbox Took out a FAT LOAN to pump itself and avoid a pile of debt repayment in 2026. Will it work?
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**TL/DR:🌈🐻 Case (my personal prediction):
Stock stays below $38.25.
They pay the full $695.8M 2026 convertible note in cash instead of converting the debt to stock.
The $2 Billion loan for buybacks ends up being a leveraged bag hold, and 2026 refinancing happens under terrible conditions.
Short sellers feast on a liquidity crunch **
Alright, let’s see if I can get two of these 🌈🐻 wins in a row. I’m not normally a bear, but it’s hard to ignore this stuff. I nailed the $SXT failure last week and bagged 400% gains in a day after everyone said I was regarded (I kinda was joking but it worked) so maybe you degenerates need to listen up. Let’s talk about Dropbox ($DBX). You know, that account you signed up for in 2012 and then forgot about until last week when you remembered you had nudes of your ex, and needed to knock one out because your wife’s boyfriend won’t let you join in on the threesome at his house? Yeah, that company is still somehow worth $10 Billion dollars. I don’t have the kind of balls, patience, and money to buy short shares, but I would if I could. Who honestly looks at dropbox and thinks that in 2 years they’ll be in a better position?
Aside from growth problems, they just took out a fat $2Bil loan from Blackstone for share buybacks, adding pressure to the ticking time bomb of debt coming due in 2026. And if the stock doesn’t pump soon, it is ripe to be targeted by shorties. They are obviously hoping they can pamp this thing over $38 to force conversion of their near term debt obligations into stock. I think that the powers at be already noticed this last year, and took the opportunity to smash the stock far away from the conversion price. Down 23% in a day for losing 50k users and weak guidance? Seems harsh unless someone wants them to go BK.
Pumping things up without growth is not new for them. The only difference is now they are borrowing to keep the buyback ride going. Between 2023 and 2024 they bought $1 billion in shares, but they don't have the cash to do that anymore. They also did big layoffs in 2023 and 2024, but they cant just keep firing everyone to meet shareholder expectations.
Here’s the breakdown:
🧨 The Blackstone Loan: Instant Liquidity, Long-Term Pain?
$1B secured term loan from Blackstone (with an option for $1B more).
They didn’t use this to grow the business—they used it to buy back stock ($1.2B repurchase program).
Unlike their 0% interest convertible notes from 2021, this new loan actually has interest (~7%), meaning Dropbox is now paying $70M in new annual debt expenses.
⏳ The Real Danger: 2026 Convertible Notes
Back in 2021, Dropbox issued $695.8M in convertible notes at $38.25 conversion price.
Guess what? The stock has NEVER hit $38.25 since then.
**If the stock stays below that by 2026, these notes don’t convert, and Dropbox has to pay the full $695.8M in cash.**
Oh yeah, and in 2028, another $693.3M comes due at $35.35.
✔ If stock pumps above $38.25, problem solved—notes convert, no cash payout.
❌ If stock stays near where it is , they need to pay $695.8M out of pocket or refinance in much worse conditions in every way. There's zero chance they can refinance this at a better rate than 0%. Stock takes a big hit in this case.
So What Happens Next?
✅ Best Case:
They suddenly figure out how to grow again (lol). More realistically, buybacks succeed in pushing DBX past $38, forcing debt conversion and avoiding a liquidity crunch. Stock is already up ~9% since December, likely from this effort. Must hit guidance - they fired 20% of the company to make sure of it.
❌ Worst Case:
No meaningful growth. Layoffs in engineering & sales suggest they aren’t innovating. The AI pivot flopped, and “Dash” didn’t save them.
Severance cost them ~$100M, adding pressure.
If buybacks fail to push DBX past $38, they waste cash and still have to deal with refinancing.
2026 refinancing likely means higher interest rates, tanking valuation further.
Position:10x 20 June 25p, 10x 20 June 30p
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ANF is going to fly 🚀🚀🚀
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Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is a gold mine right now. I'll try to keep this brief, because we're all lazy.
\[Post writing update: It was not short. TLDR; ANF good. why down? idk? Me bought \~60k $ worth. Me likey ANF growth. Me likey money.\]
\[Edit: I'm more than happy with ANF hitting 120 or even 130, I think it could pull up to 140 though.\]
ANF has been fluctuating between the low 120s and high 140s for a while now, and I've essentially been scalping this.
https://preview.redd.it/vuhl7ycifvje1.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=0db4a79a7491955d27a01eaaca50b85448eb3aed
This is only a sample of what I've been doing so far
https://preview.redd.it/612ffxwrfvje1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=3045d5194a861f21bb48093ad2669c8da9dfc94b
Personally, I see no real reason why this stock isnt moving higher up right now. 112 is really low, and it should be mid 130s.
Here is a comparison with it's peers
https://preview.redd.it/cbp3ui63gvje1.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=a56d80903b6b7faa86167beed8bc4c88f37075b9
https://preview.redd.it/d7s1ap87gvje1.png?width=1223&format=png&auto=webp&s=5651c15384be07f06cd0e308aa6c589d61a9b969
It's the only one that has been down. For why? No idea.
Its revenue growth is almost 20% YOY, a LOT higher than the average across the industry
https://preview.redd.it/6f11d9zbgvje1.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c9d4f3dee62cbe0bac4c71f6cbb7ae6909d2dfd
Okay sure it has good revenue, but what about it's profits? how much does it earn?
64% gross profit margins? Come on those are lovely numbers
https://preview.redd.it/szv69vmfgvje1.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=6809ff713718c55c36d3fcdd3765119e69dad718
Sure, but let's talk about the downside.
I'm not a fan of how 98% of the shares are owned by outsiders. Insiders having low holdings is a bad sign
https://preview.redd.it/orberfingvje1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=306921fadf79a59cada9047c5119428a17d18a22
But also, the insiders, CEO, seems a lil old fashioned, I mean, no social media in 2025? Come on.
https://preview.redd.it/swbj0idzgvje1.png?width=1194&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a1bbbe4522f1dbd27988e267710e0e2654ccc0f
Okay what about other risk metrics
https://preview.redd.it/a6f9oxw1hvje1.png?width=1196&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7fb15c755c0be5e5bdb13a2aa015c837ce85abc
Altman Z Score is what I like. It means nothing here as it's the score given to "likeliness to go bankrupt", which none of these companies will. But, I still like the fact that it has better strength than the other companies, especially in comparison to GAP.
https://preview.redd.it/37svh60bhvje1.png?width=671&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c7e37e8a074a07217ff482ef41301c26ab170a0
So, why is it down? I have no idea. My assumption is that, with all the tariff news, people think that clothing products in general will have lower sales as its a luxury. But, Eh, Abercrombie people like to buy Abercrombie, even if it means they gotta use money budgeted for rent, right? It has quite a few UP revisions for EPS reports, and I dont know when the 1 DOWN revision came about, but I assume it's the recent news saying that "they expect lower growth", aka instead of 20, maybe like 12? still better than the others?
https://preview.redd.it/j19uxisqhvje1.png?width=1197&format=png&auto=webp&s=c88944a3a8b719e2f77cc0f8d2c42647a732c480
Quick overview of their financials, Profit of 3 BILLION ttm, and 20% growth. That's banger numbers not gonna lie
https://preview.redd.it/uih0o3h0ivje1.png?width=1207&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4bfffc31459de17e5085567ee73b79d73196856
And you know what, ANF is trading at a **PE of 11.6.** Warren Buffet said <15 is good, me likey.
I also do like that their book value is getting better (Essentially they are paying off their debts?)
https://preview.redd.it/s8olnzlxivje1.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea630fe6ff9350d1ba6e02624c88a25f20ba4b22
I also do like the dumb logic that, companies these days have been running up days PRIOR to the earnings, such as this
https://preview.redd.it/okle8iuajvje1.png?width=366&format=png&auto=webp&s=09dd0115965b1403e6fd439ac52918f9f6d19dd2
Hence, I'm already in.
My positions
58k ish in Stocks
https://preview.redd.it/a0egea9ijvje1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=75c7a3ea0bb55f6e806994ed0e636bbf38412d96
2ishk in Options (i'm not relying on this, this essentially throwaway money. In fact, my expiration is before earnings, Earnings is on March 5)
https://preview.redd.it/7yuor98sjvje1.png?width=1419&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe676b29ead5635a94242891c5575676fbe92a54
But those options could print yk.
DISCLAIMER: THIS AINT FINANCIAL ADVICE, INVEST (gamble) AT YOUR OWN RISK. This better print, I already got enough haters on this.
(ANF, if this prints, I'll buy \~500$ worth from your stores, thanks <3 )
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$278k+ in LUNR. Here’s how to play
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Obviously do what you want. Not financial advice and whatever.
I posted DD a few weeks back about buying the dip on this stock. Back then it was 22 ish and I predicted it would have some potential dips before going higher. Well those dips happened and I hope you scooped up some longs or shares when it was in the 17s and 18s. If you didn’t, then guess what, you’re not too late yet because it closed last Friday in the 19s and ready to rip over the next two month back into the 20s and through the 30s.
Why?
Because it’s launch season again. Last year they landed on the moon and in the two week run up to the landing, it ripped as news coverage started on the launch, getting your every day Joe Schmo talking about it. Well you’re on WSB, so you might as well jump on it before the rest of the country finds out that we’re about to land on the moon again.
Launch window opens the 26th. That means the run up is about to start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it open up tomorrow already in the 20s, but don’t fear: any entrance in the 20s is a good entrance.
Last year the stock crashed a few days after launch. Why? It wasn’t a pump and dump. It’s cause the lander tipped over after landing. Is it going to tip over again? Highly unlikely. They spent the last year tripling and quadrupling up on their engineering to make sure that this time it’ll nail its position as the de facto lunar landing system of any US moon missions for the next few decades.
I wouldn’t sell before launch. I wouldn’t sell after landing either. There might be some profit taking dips, but the stock is just going to keep going up as their successes materialize.
Even AFTER it lands and literally moons, you’ve got earnings happening in late march a few weeks later, where they’ll break down their successes to the press and announce their plans moving forward as space missions expand. Expect that earnings report to be massive as well and at the very least, hold your plays for the run up to that earnings before making your decision to exit right before earnings or hold for another hit.
You want a short term play? This is it.
You want a long term play? This is it.
Scared about tariffs and economic conditions like inflation and rate cuts? LUNR is its own thing. NASAs doing this no matter what happens to the economy because the new space race is here. Go google articles about China’s recent moon efforts.
I’m not saying that this is your last chance to get on. But this is your last chance at getting on before it becomes way more expensive. Get your ticket stamped and hold on for the ride for the next 8 weeks.
PTs:
25 by launch day
30 when it lands
35 a week after it lands
40 after smashing earnings
50 end of year
100 when it lands with a human inside by the end of the decade
Positions:
12,000x shares
90x calls (18c 3/21 which I’ll roll for 3/28 after the landing)
$278,850 total and more than half my account.
Add it to your watchlist and watch it make history (for your bank account).
|
BlackBerry: A Legacy Stock That’s Going To Get Re-Rated And Run
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BlackBerry is not a dead brand. It’s not a failed smartphone company. It’s not just another stock that spikes when retail traders pile in and then disappears.
It is a deeply entrenched, high-margin infrastructure software business that has gone completely unnoticed in the AI-driven rally. While every software stock remotely connected to AI, IoT, or automation trades at sky-high valuations, BlackBerry—which powers 255M+ vehicles and counting—still trades like a company with no future.
The reality is different. BlackBerry dominates real-time, safety-critical automotive systems with its QNX operating system, and it’s now layering on a SaaS-like business with IVY, a cloud-based vehicle data platform co-developed with AWS.
IVY allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize vehicle sensor data in real time. This is exactly the kind of AI-adjacent, cloud-powered software business that should be trading at 10x revenue, yet the market assigns it zero value.
That will not last much longer.
* QNX is embedded in 255M+ vehicles and continues to expand at 20M+ per year.
* IVY has secured early adopters, including Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng, and Mitsubishi Electric.
* The cybersecurity division, generating $350M–$365M annually, is now stabilized and profitable.
Every other infrastructure software business with this kind of positioning has already been re-rated higher—this one just hasn’t caught up yet.
# The Trade: BlackBerry Gets Re-Rated in the Next 2–3 Quarters—Possibly as Soon as Earnings April 2nd
QNX is growing, IVY is ramping up, and cybersecurity has stabilized, yet the stock price still reflects none of this.
* If BlackBerry provides strong IVY guidance next earnings, the re-rating could start immediately.
* Even without IVY, QNX’s backlog alone justifies a higher multiple.
* Cybersecurity, previously a drag on performance, is now quietly generating cash.
This setup provides a margin of safety with significant upside.
Even if IVY takes time to scale, QNX alone is worth more than what the market is assigning to BlackBerry today.
If the market re-rates BlackBerry as an infrastructure software business, it trades at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters. That does not include IVY guidance or it's potential impact on price, which could drive the stock much higher.
# QNX: The Operating System Running Inside 255M+ Vehicles
QNX is not an infotainment OS—it’s the real-time, safety-critical software running inside automotive systems.
* Installed in 255M+ vehicles, growing by 20M+ per year
* $815M backlog (+27% YoY) ensures forward revenue visibility
* Trusted by nearly every major automaker, including BMW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Honda, Stellantis, Bosch, Continental, Magna, and Denso
QNX is embedded in ADAS, digital instrument clusters, telematics, and secure gateways—systems where failure is not an option. Automakers don’t replace this kind of software lightly, which is why QNX enjoys high retention and a long revenue tail.
As vehicles become more software-driven, QNX’s role is only growing.
* Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) require real-time OS solutions that QNX already dominates
* QNX Hypervisor enables multiple systems to run securely on a single chip, increasing its value per vehicle
* EVs and autonomous systems require low-latency, high-reliability computing—exactly what QNX provides
If QNX were valued like a strategic AI-driven infrastructure software provider, it would not be trading at 5x revenue.
A more appropriate 8–10x multiple puts QNX’s valuation at $2.5B–$3.5B alone.
Right now, the market is treating QNX like a legacy asset when it’s actually growing and gaining importance.
# IVY: The Unpriced SaaS Upside That Could Change the Entire Valuation
BlackBerry IVY is a co-developed vehicle data platform with AWS that allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize in-car data.
* Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng Motors, and Mitsubishi Electric have already signed on
* IVY enables software-driven revenue streams for automakers (subscriptions, upgrades, real-time analytics)
* BlackBerry captures recurring revenue from these services
Right now, the market assigns IVY zero value because revenue has not yet scaled.
But automakers are moving toward Tesla-style in-car software features, usage-based pricing, and over-the-air upgrades.
If IVY becomes the data layer that enables this shift, BlackBerry’s valuation moves toward SaaS multiples instead of just embedded software.
And we will know a lot more by next earnings.
# Cybersecurity: No Longer a Drag, Now a Cash Generator
For years, BlackBerry’s cybersecurity business was bloated and uncompetitive.
* Then management sold off Cylance, cut unnecessary costs, and focused on high-trust, high-retention government and enterprise contracts.
* Cybersecurity now generates $350M–$365M annually with a $280M ARR & Margins have improved to 65%
* Trusted by NATO, Fortune 500s, and government agencies
This is not a high-growth business, but it is a stable, profitable enterprise software business that the market is ignoring.
Even at a conservative 2–4x revenue multiple, cybersecurity alone could be worth $700M–$1.2B.
Right now, the market is treating this business as worthless, which makes no sense.
# Market Mispricing: How Big Is the Upside?
BlackBerry is currently trading at \~5x sales, significantly below comparable infrastructure software businesses.
If the market re-rates BlackBerry as a legitimate infrastructure software provider, the stock is an easy double from here.
A reasonable valuation based on its components:
* QNX at 8–10x revenue → $2.5B–$3.5B
* Cybersecurity at 2–4x revenue → $700M–$1.2B
* IVY is completely unpriced—if it scales, it could be worth billions
**This pushes BlackBerry’s fair value toward $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters on the low end, $20+ on the high end if IVY scales.**
If IVY guidance is strong next earnings, that re-rating could start immediately.
# Final Thought: The Market Is About to Wake Up
This is not a meme stock revival.
It is an AI-adjacent, embedded infrastructure software business that has somehow escaped the AI stock rally.
That will not last much longer.
* QNX should not be trading like a no-growth legacy product
* IVY is being assigned zero value, despite real partnerships and revenue potential
* Cybersecurity is now a stable asset, not a liability
This stock is one strong IVY earnings guide away from a re-rating to juicy SAAS multiples. BlackBerry is almost certainly about to be priced like a great software company instead of a clown show. When that happens, it’s not trading anywhere near $5.69 anymore.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
https://preview.redd.it/yckbhcggxpje1.jpg?width=585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b6a5ec29945604efa284881d1f8b1b0fcdc0ce53
I’ve put together the above analysis of BlackBerry. I work on these memos for my own personal investments and want to start sharing them. Thought you degens might like them.
I'm going to be posting diligence on reddit regularly, but only on r/wallstreetbets for positions in my personal book. Follow me on directly if you want to read more.
**TLDR:** My analysis indicates BlackBerry is a high-margin software business that the market doesn't believe could operate a coffee cart at an airport. Their IOT businesses includes the dominant OS for automotive software and an emerging SaaS platform co-developed with AWS both of which should command high multiples. The stock trades at a massive discount to comparable AI-adjacent infrastructure software businesses. In a base case, the stock should trade at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters and if IOT guidance is strong next earnings it can pop to 20+.
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This sector you've never touched is a 10-bagger. [DD]
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I want to focus a sector that receives no love: Mining.
Trading at decade-lows with little investor interest, mining stocks today are like tech stocks in 2001. I'm going to show you how they have all the elements of a 10-bagger play, and how you should take advantage of the upcoming bull run
**PART 1: Qualities of a 10-Bagger**
Without overcomplicating things, a 10-bagger stock or industry can be summarized with these elements:
1. Left For Dead Prices - Prices that don't reflect the baked in value or potential growth of the company, especially compared to historic averages, since prices are typically mean-reverting.
2. Little Investor Participation - Trades that aren't crowded out by investors, muting potential future gains.
3. Ridiculous Potential - Massive margins of safety and explosive potential upside that lead to companies consistently growing their top line.
**PART 2: A Tale of Two Sectors**
https://preview.redd.it/a5aslgqpajje1.jpg?width=1341&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5045ac70d14bd4b629332bac9984ad0c845b1829
You've been a regard for investing in mining over the past \~30 years. The index rose over \~5x, and you're flat. Any active manager in Mining stocks has either been fired or full-ported into Apple at this point.
It's even more stark when you compare to tech. Over the past 30 years, the tech sector delivered \~5,000% return, dwarfing the broader market’s \~1,874%.
Investors have crowded the trade, leading to a situation where you nearly can't avoid exposure to the richly valued tech names:
https://preview.redd.it/47riv3obbjje1.jpg?width=1389&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e31b8099d02c792cbb737a2f9ee17374f99ef163
Safe to say miners aren't included in any meaningful allocation in today's indexes.
But do they have the potential to 10x from here?
**PART 3: Left for Dead Prices**
The most compelling case for a 10-bagger is being cheap. Buying Apple at 10-15 PE in the 2010's is retrospectively a no-brainer. It gives you an incredible margin of safety if you're buying growth for value prices.
Miners are cyclical companies deeply exposed to the price of the ores they mine. Whether it's copper, silver, gold, or rare metals, miners generally scale with the price of their underlying commodity.
https://preview.redd.it/670ubnytljje1.png?width=969&format=png&auto=webp&s=685e17313d2d2d33bed2d39c3733183eced31cba
For gold miners, this hasn't been the case. Despite gold roaring to highs around $2900 an ounce, the average gold miner is down over the past 20 years.
Many of these miners produce gold for less then $1000 an ounce and have been reinvesting their income into future production. Let's take a look under the hood at B2Gold $BTG
|B2Gold|Metrics|
|:-|:-|
|Total Assets|4,788,737K|
|Total Liabilities|1,599,657K|
|Book Value|\~3.2B|
|Market Cap|3.3B|
|TTM Operating Income|600Mln|
|5yr Avg Operating Income|672Mln|
|P/B|\~1X|
|P/OI|\~5X|
Wow. You're getting the company at book value today, and at a 20% income yield. It seems like it's deep value, so what are the growth prospects?
|B2Gold Company Expectations|Gold Ounces|
|:-|:-|
|2024|800K|
|2025|1Mln|
|2026|1.2Mln|
So what does this look like as far as their sales expectations? Let's see the price of gold:
https://preview.redd.it/00gmixjgnjje1.png?width=1083&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2b3030a72eb4b41b4938d400eeac334db5b28fa
Compared to the company's reported all-in-sustaining-cost of producing gold at $1,200 an ounce, the company generates about \~$1700 an ounce in cash at today's prices. Who said you needed to be a tech stock to get 50%+ margins?
So, let's take a look at their 2026 projected gold ounces produced vs. some potential prices of gold. Assuming 1.2Mln ounces produced in 2026, here is their operating income:
|Cost of Production / Gold Price|$2000|$2500|$3000|$4000|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|$1200\*|$960Mln|$1560Mln|$2160Mln|**$3360Mln**|
|$1400|$720Mln|$1320Mln|$1920Mln|$3120Mln|
|$1600|**$480Mln**|$1080Mln|$1680Mln|$2880Mln|
The company reports an AISC of $1200, but I've extrapolated this to 1,400 and 1,600 to account for worst case scenarios. Today's gold price is near $3000, but I've shown more bearish moves to $2000 an ounce to show worst case scenarios.
If you price in a 30% increase in costs and a 30% decline in gold price, the company is still trading at only **\~6X** their projected operating income.
So, an incredible margin of safety in the bear case scenario. What about a bull case scenario where costs remain the same but gold increases another 30% from here in 2026? The company will earn **3.3B** in operating income, which is the entire market capitalization. **You are potentially buying this company for 1 Forward P/E.**
The vast majority of junior gold miners have very similar fundamentals and future growth prospects. The entire industry is priced as if gold is falling +50% from here.
Similar miners are in the same boat. You don't have to look at gold. Let's take mega miner BHP Group $BHP for a ride. You're getting the company today for 5X 5 year average operating income as well, at 2X book value. Of course upside is more limited with a larger company, but the mineral diversification in BHP means that you benefit from price increases over many minerals.
**PART 4: Little Investor Participation**
Tell me this, when's the last time you saw someone shilling mining stocks on WSB? When's the last time a mining stock IPO'd on robinhood, or your friend showed you his mining tendies? There's basically zero investor interest left in the sector. It's tarnished by ESG, political risk, and just not being "sexy".
If you were an active manager following mining over the past 20 years, you lost your job. Why would anyone keep the regard that failed to beat the market for 20+ years?
https://preview.redd.it/2hl2u5drpjje1.png?width=1040&format=png&auto=webp&s=859518764be92fb4e04cfe5721935682f6d11d2b
The mining index has plummeted in comparison to its historic market participation. The pessimism is a clear setup for a multi-bagger contrarian play.
**PART 5: Ridiculous Potential**
I've already outlined an example miner for you to see the kinds of valuations present in the sector, but the Junior Miner Index ($GDXJ) is filled to the brim with similar companies. When you look at a mining industry's 20 year history on google, the chart looks like shit. But have they ever outperformed?
Mining stocks have generally been counter-cyclical: When markets fizzle out, they find their time to boom.
They surged in the Depression, mooned in the 70s inflation crisis:
https://preview.redd.it/zxc6j2nhqjje1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c32453a5afd3e8390247fd643c5191303f98714
https://preview.redd.it/c4hgv5ckqjje1.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=b43b557c4d3cf05889c6f1a13c96c4ec86e939cd
Specifically, they are counter-cyclical with Tech, and boomed during the last tech cycle wash in 2000:
https://preview.redd.it/5berkqxrqjje1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=b067f3c82ff2fd8fa3d4ff135feec946d5e9f3fa
And of course, the prices of the ores they're pulling out of the ground are expected to rise as well. Inflation is ripping the price of gold and looks to stop no time soon.
Steel and iron used for building is ramping up with urbanization and economic prosperity, whereas rare earth metals are finding their space in batteries, EVs, and semiconductors.
Copper is the backbone of electrification, and every single year the world breaks the previous year's record for humans living in urban environments. Global prosperity is the true secular bull market, and metals & mining are deeply connected to global growth in general.
Nearly all metals are also hedged to the growth of emerging markets, giving any US investors some necessary global exposure.
https://preview.redd.it/yyn79l0xujje1.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a5416495af3dbc9ade3ff9a80a107c34b26eb99
**PART 6: How to Play It**
Here's my takes on the best opportunities in mining:
|Opportunity|Sector|Justification|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Higher Opportunity|Individual small-cap miners ($BTG) \[Gold, Coal, Iron, Copper, ETC\]|Diving into individual names helps you avoid exposure to low quality companies in the indexes. Small caps have the best potential to scale earnings parabolically.|
||Junior Miner Index ($GDXJ)|General exposure to smallcap gold|
||Individual large-cap miners ($BHP)|While not as sensitive to price movements to the upside, large-caps are less sensitive to downside movements in the underlying commodities, and you can avoid some junk by diving into individual names|
||Metals & Mining ETFs ($PICK, $COPX)|Exposure beyond gold is great, as many of these miners across different metals have similar valuations and vary in their industry verticals.|
||Gold Miner ETF ($GDX)|General exposure to largecap gold|
|Lower Opportunity|Rare Earth Metals ($REMX)|While I think the same thesis is in tact for rare earth metal miners, their valuations trade at a substantial premium to the more "classical" miners of gold, silver, coal, iron, copper, nickel etc.|
My plays:
I'm long the following:
https://preview.redd.it/jf9rsqmn0kje1.png?width=395&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a545df7a3687358bb1ec7739aa7adaa855ec34f
https://preview.redd.it/jvotmymn0kje1.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=a67361da344478392b3d29d7d772a921158c23af
https://preview.redd.it/i1g267nn0kje1.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=db76144393fe70db03eed48e64219d606ef975ce
https://preview.redd.it/guzharmn0kje1.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=6589f635566ae9a976248ae3040f67b69c971d9f
https://preview.redd.it/tjpt8nmn0kje1.png?width=388&format=png&auto=webp&s=f877b83eb62dc762d75ab82169e86640c9d0489a
https://preview.redd.it/i99qsnmn0kje1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ca153a9b85e4a477c193bf1a75f8286620179e2
https://preview.redd.it/77jsapmn0kje1.png?width=389&format=png&auto=webp&s=6767ebd76f704fdbf264ae3d3d0e4c59e816ba30
https://preview.redd.it/j72ppsmn0kje1.png?width=395&format=png&auto=webp&s=19ef0a371e8aacb273252a340a64f13e849e2ed1
Reposting with positions.
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Steel DD: Trump Tariff Time
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**Summary**
Before we knew Trump was getting elected we were looking at a reversion to the mean from the once in a lifetime bull market of 2021-2023. We also had China starting to dump insane amounts of steel globally. In 2024, China’s steel exports climbed to 110.72 million metric tons, reflecting a 22.7% rise from the prior year. Now we have across the board tariffs which include downstream products. These are a lot more bullish than the tariffs in 2018. GDP is growing and manufacturing PMI’S are improving. Of note the ISM Manufacturing PMI turned positive for the first time in nearly two years. The Chicago PMI is still pretty crappy though. Overall things are looking quite bullish for the USA. If China can take off and stop exporting so much steel this would obviously be bullish globally. China steel exports are the #1 risk factor.
**Price Targets**
https://preview.redd.it/9fm0w6yzpjje1.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=aba555d688056a7e9b29db7e81e02db0fc992179
**Selected Company Commentary**
**X**
The just finished a massive CAPEX cycle. Big River 2 is now starting to produce and the plant would probably cost $10 billion to build today. I believe X is a buy even as a standalone at this level. Huge plant in Slovakia could benefit if the war ends. In terms of the potential Nippon or other acquisition here are my thoughts:
1. Valuation Range 37-65+
2. Option A: Nippon buys $55
3. Option B: Nippon / CLF NUE JV $55. Nippon putting together bold/unprecedented proposal.
4. Option C: NUE / CLF Buy: Upper 30s, pushed to $45
5. Option D: Liquidation $65+ over $55
6. Option E: Standalone. To $49+ (Weeklies might die)
**STLD**
The best run steel company globally in my opinion. They are sort of a growth company disguised as a cyclical stock I saw somebody write. Strong downstream and internal pull on crude production. I love the move into Aluminum funded by FCF. Starting up in 2026 and hopefully STLD can do to aluminum what NUE and STLD did to steel. First new aluminum plant in the USA in 40 years.
**NUE**
Largest and most diversified steel company in North America. I see more upside in STLD.
**CMC**
Great company. Some presence in Poland. Acquisition target IMO.
**TX**
10.3% Yield
$1.6 billion net cash
Always dirt cheap, someday that may change. Consistently profitable as well. 80% owned by a billionaire and non-USA which keeps the multiple down.
**CLF**
* I had this targeted for $5 before tariffs
* This stock is a huge raw bet on steel prices and trading vehicle
* Management is about getting big at any and all costs. This could work or backfire massively.
* Could end up with a sweetheart deal getting part of X
* Between getting sued by Mesabi Trust and U.S. Steel up possibly $3 billion+ in legal liability
**MT**
The stock everybody loves to hate. I believe they have been doing an excellent job. They should have about $1.9 billion in through-cycle EBITDA coming the next few years. Very low valuation. The largest steel company globally outside of China. Book value per share $64. Since the end of 2020 they have bought back about ⅓ of their shares and the stock has gone nowhere.
Global Snapshot:
https://preview.redd.it/oa0s0d52qjje1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9f44bfdbdbce8ce6025effd280c4510a1716a43
Technically it looks extremely bullish to me on the long run monthly chart:
https://preview.redd.it/rd5cgjf4qjje1.png?width=2706&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4c0312a33b1739c11b12a6c9ca5ad33f59c541f
**Main Steel Risk Factors**
Bullish
* Trump/Global Protectionism + Economic Boom
* Ukraine War Ends/ Ukraine Steel Production Drops 8 million tons. MT, X, CMC
* Multi Nation Coated Steel Trade Case. 1/24 WITHIN A FEW MONTHS
* 2.3% GDP Growth in Q4: Can this cause a restocking?.
* Oligopoly/market power for big 4 and CLF (esp with auto), Industry discipline. CLF X idle furnaces etc.
* Restocking? GDP Growth + China could cause it. Trump win can cause it?
* Scrap prices are rising
* Market caps of steel stocks are tiny relative to Mag7 etc. Any rotation could be explosive.
Bearish
* The steel market was pretty weak before the Tariffs hit.
* China record steel exports: China trending up? 99% of China plants losing money, no stimulus for real estate? Impacts MT, TX more.
* 10 Year Treasury Yields / Inflation
* Broader market meltdown / recession
* Losing construction workers due to deportations
* Trade war repercussions
**Positions**
1. Long X
2. Long STLD
3. Long CMC
4. Long TX
5. Long MT
https://preview.redd.it/16xa5z17qjje1.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=c113f0613142c3c505a38c692f1ed86baf57b0d8
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BB double down,
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BB has completed the turn around. It's no longer a meme craze. A profitable company with a good balance sheet and growth. Dominant player in Automotive industry. What's your realistic price target for this company and why I should sell?
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$GENI: Genius Sports, it’s literally in the name
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$GENI: The No-Brainer Play Before Earnings
Alright, I’m going to make this simple. Genius Sports ($GENI) is about to take off, and if you’re not paying attention, you’re going to be that guy watching from the sidelines. This stock is setting up technically, has a major catalyst on deck (earnings), and is riding industry momentum that’s only getting stronger. Let’s get into it.
1. Earnings Are Coming (March 4) – And They Look Good
We’re two weeks out from $GENI’s Q4 2024 earnings report, and the numbers already look solid:
• Revenue: Expected to hit $511M for 2024, up 24% YoY.
• EBITDA: Projected at $86M, a 61% increase.
• Cash Flow: Sitting on $135M in cash, up from $69M last quarter. That’s a huge boost in liquidity.
The company is clearly hitting its stride, and a strong earnings beat could send this stock moving fast.
2. The Chart Is Screaming “Breakout”
Look at the chart. Seriously, look at it.
• $10 is the final boss – Once this breaks, there’s nothing stopping this from running to $15.50, and after that, the next major resistance is around $22.
• Volume spike – The last breakout attempt had big volume behind it. Buyers are here.
• Momentum building – RSI is in the sweet spot, MACD is turning bullish, and we’re coiling under resistance. It’s only a matter of time.
This is the kind of setup you want to see before a big catalyst.
3. DraftKings Just Gave Us the Green Light
DraftKings ($DKNG) reported earnings, and they crushed it:
• Revenue up 13% YoY to $1.39B.
• Upping 2025 guidance to $6.3B-$6.6B.
• Most important: They’re investing heavily in live/in-game betting, which is exactly where $GENI makes its money.
Here’s why that matters:
• Genius Sports earns 3x more on in-game bets vs. pre-game bets.
• The Super Bowl saw record live betting this year.
• Every sportsbook is going all-in on live betting, and they need $GENI’s real-time data to make it happen.
DraftKings is basically telling us that the sector is booming, and Genius Sports is positioned to print money because of it.
4. The Play? It’s Simple.
• I’m holding 300+ $10 calls for April and July.
• Earnings are March 4 – expect volatility, but the setup is too good to ignore.
If this breaks $10 with volume, we’re looking at $15-$16 with soooo much room to run after.
TL;DR: $GENI is about to break out, earnings look strong, DraftKings just confirmed live betting (aka $GENI’s biggest money-maker) is growing like crazy, and we’re two weeks away from a major catalyst. The setup is there. Don’t miss out on probably the easiest play of the next few weeks, and possibly the year.
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The next potential candidate for S&P inclusion - Coin
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The Next s&p 500 inclusion - Coinbase
No one is talking about this so let’s discuss. Coin had a good run up day before earning reports. They had a good earning but stock tanked.
The next S&P 500 inclusion will happen on 21st March. We have seen what happens when they rebalance and add stocks like palantir..
I’m convinced coinbase will be the next candidate to be included next month. Posting here for a sanity check and blind spot. Tell me why it should not be included.
Criteria for Inclusion in the S&P 500
A company must meet the following criteria to be selected by the Index Committee and be included in the S&P 500 index:
The company should be from the U.S. (fulfilled)
Its market cap must be at least $20.5 billion. Coin have more than 50 billion market cap (fulfilled)
Its shares must be highly liquid. Coin have 10-20 million shares in average trading volume
At least 10% of its outstanding shares must be available for public trading. Coinbase public float is around 20-30% (fulfilled)
It must report positive earnings in the most recent quarter.
The sum of its earnings in the previous four quarters must be positive. (Fulfilled)
Reposting with disclosure as previous post was taken down. ( I have 400 shares in coinbase with average cost basis of around $232) which is almost 40% of my portfolio.
Let’s discuss!
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The Future of Battery Technology is Here! - Enovix
|
Hey everyone,
I've been diving deep into the potential of Enovix lately, and I think this company might be gearing up to redefine the battery space as we know it. Here are a few reasons why I’m excited. I have 2000 share outside of this option play.
1. **Cutting-Edge 3D Battery Architecture:** Enovix’s innovative design isn’t just another incremental improvement. Their 3D architecture could pave the way for batteries with significantly higher energy densities, promising longer runtimes and more efficient energy storage.
2. **Market Disruption Potential:** With the growing demand for advanced energy storage—from electric vehicles to portable devices—their technology positions them to capture a big slice of a rapidly expanding market. Dont forget AI demand in battery tech yet.
3. **Strong Intellectual Property Portfolio:** Robust patents and a clear R&D roadmap suggest that Enovix is not only ahead in innovation but also prepared to defend its technological edge in a competitive landscape.
4. **Strategic Partnerships and Expanding Ecosystem:** Recent collaborations and moves towards commercial-scale production hint at an exciting future where Enovix could become a key player in the next generation of batteries.
5. **Growing Industry Buzz:** As more industry insiders take note, the chatter around Enovix isn’t just hype—it’s grounded in real technological promise and a vision that aligns with the future needs of energy storage.
https://preview.redd.it/bx7f6szwe6je1.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a06c41e1dd4dac7b639b381054c8b847deca813
This isn’t financial advice—always do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before jumping in.
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$350k Bet on a Foreign Airline - The Bull Case for Air Canada
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Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/ynqr0i80j5je1.png?width=2540&format=png&auto=webp&s=abc925b48b084ed2d9cc89a34dadc488add3faa6
Air Canada (AC.TO) released earnings yesterday. Revenue increased more than anticipated, and EPS was just as with projections. They were able to perform in-line with the bullish guidance that they'd provided earlier in the year, and announced a buyback of 10% of shares later this year. This company recently resolved a strike threat from its pilots, and are more profitable than they were a year ago.
Presently, Air Canada has a valuation of $6.3B. Based on market cap and region, its nearest comparable is American Airlines, which has a PE ratio of 13.5. Onex (the parent company of WestJet, which is Canada's other main airline) has a PE ratio of 7.9. Air Canada's current PE ratio is 2.6.
Given the positive guidance, the deep discount compared to its peers, and the relatively weak Canadian dollar right now, buying this seems like a no brainer. Even if the PE ratio were to climb to 6.5 (a 50% discount in comparison to its peers), this would correspond with a share price of $44.
That would be a 150% pump from the current share price of $17.75.
There's an opportunity here.
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Herbalife ($HLF) is going to bounce back HARD after EARNINGS
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What's up snitches, I bet Herbalife ($HLF) is not the name you were expecting to see today when you opened up WSB.
**MISSION BRIEF**
For those of you that don't know Herbalife, it's a MLM pyramid scheme company that makes their affiliates sell Wendy's dumpster tier quality protein shakes to neighborhood moms. To makes things worse, the company is down \~90% from their ATH of \~$60 in 2021 to a mere \~$5.78 today based on quarter after quarter of growth decline. Luckily I can still post this DD on WSB as its just over the $500MM market cap requirement.
https://preview.redd.it/p2nojs4vg4je1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=d68cb393c7c63aac3915056c36f0beeb2922e998
And we're going to go LONG. Yes, LONG just like my pe...riodic losses in the market.
If you need some motivation for this trade or want to explore this HLF multiverse, go watch the 'Betting on Zero' documentary where you can see Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn battle it out over this stock. For the regarded ones among us, we will be roleplaying Carl Icahn for this one.
https://preview.redd.it/3wa3q7boi4je1.png?width=1163&format=png&auto=webp&s=16dd4ed18b97ef9812117c6ee749699eae98a496
Now I hear you asking, why are we going long? This company looks like it's speed running bankruptcy and setting a WR while doing it. The answer is simple, ~~I have no idea what I am doing~~, big money and insiders are betting on it's survival and a rebound in the stock price.
**EARNINGS**
Earnings is coming up for HLF on Feb 19 2025. That is Wednesday after market close folks.
Now lets look at the last few quarters of earnings:
* **Quarter Ending: Sep 30, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.30
* Actual EPS: $0.57
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: +24.2%
* **Quarter Ending: Jun 30, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.39
* Actual EPS: $0.54
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: -25.7%
* **Quarter Ending: Mar 31, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.37
* Actual EPS: $0.49
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: +15.9%
* **Quarter Ending: Dec 31, 2023**
* Expected EPS: $0.39
* Actual EPS: $0.28
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: -28.6%
Do you see the pattern? DO YOU SEE IT? Every earnings this mother father moves a lot. It moves 25% in a week like its nothing, filthy.
# Q2 2024 (April - June) – “One last dump”
* **Net Sales:** $1.3B (down 2.5% YOY)
* **Adjusted Net Income:** $54.8M
* **Gross Margin:** 77.9%
* **Office Sale:** Torrance HQ sold for $41M and leased back for 16 months
* **Debt Refinancing:** $1.6B completed earlier in the year
* **Restructuring Program:** $80M in annual savings expected in 2025
# Q3 2024 (July - September) – “Debt Paid, Bags Made”
* **Net Sales:** $1.2B (down 3.2% YOY)
* **Adjusted Net Income:** $58M
* **Adjusted EBITDA:** $166.5M
* **Debt Reduction:** Paid down $85M of debt
* **Forward Guidance:** Raised full-year guidance
Basically, they know they're struggling and they're doing everything they can to reduce debt and reverse this trend. Q3 was the last positive quarter with a spike. The spike didn't last long at all and it sold off harshly after the first month (-40% to date) but we are aiming for that 25% spike again friends.
**INSIDER ACTIVITY**
So what are the insiders doing besides failing to run their ~~scam~~ company well? Well in 2024, the insiders we're mostly buying more shares from the $7 - $10.5 range. The number of buys was also significantly higher compared to other negative growth years. Granted its mostly one insider buying over the last year but the takeaway is, if they loved the stock at $8, they should REALLY love it in the $5.
**BIG MONEY**
Go to the options chain. LEAPS. **Jan 15'27 12.5C**.
Do you see that open interest? Do you see that 10k contracts purchased at $90 a pop. Well my friends, that is a recently opened position and it was opened quite SWIFTLY. When the stock dumped last week from $6.50 to $5.30, this position was opened up quickly. This means these will print GAURANTEED.
There are also a lot of other option activity on the chain implying a big move one way or another. This one will be volatile on / after earnings day. Almost no chance it stays flat.
If you're not convinced at this point, then I'm afraid you leave me no choice but to talk about the....
**ANAL-YSTS**
There are a few analysts that cover this stock. Here are their recent ratings:
https://preview.redd.it/xjxij10rh4je1.png?width=1580&format=png&auto=webp&s=e379209b2a3e362c348328106f7fc0746643ef9a
They are still dishing out $7-$13 targets over the last half year. And I think they couldn't be more right. If this earnings is big GREEN like I predict, then the analysts will pile on with revised ratings sending it even higher.
I even emailed all the analysts covering this stock and while they did all ignore me, I got a vacation auto-response from one of them which is a BIG BULL SIGNAL. Probably on a cruise ship somewhere waiting for the big 50% gain day to drop.
**MORALITY CHECK**
Now it has to be said, I don't really care for MLM scam companies like Herbalife and ultimate would be happy to see them go bankrupt. But money is money, and by longing, I am playing both sides so that I always come out on top.
I literally can't lose!
**POSITIONS**
Opened freshly right before posting this DD:
https://preview.redd.it/y9h8yr24i4je1.png?width=332&format=png&auto=webp&s=941fd2731c9d41c9bd7a44911d99342f65bc31f5
**QUESTIONS**
Please leave any questions in the comment section below and someone from our customer service team will respond to your inquiry within 4-12 business days.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
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Why CRZBY is my "crazy baby"!
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Good day fellow crazy babies,
today I want to talk about one of the biggest German banks Commerzbank (CRZBY) and why I am heavily invested in them.
Honestly I won't bore you with the basics, but to summarize they have very good financials, with rising common business activity, profit, EPS, dividends and capital:
||2024|2023|2022|2021|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|sales volume|11,9 B|22,5 B|14,6 B|12,2 B|
|profit|2,7 B|2 B|1,2 B|431 M|
|EPS (after tax)|2,28|1,63|0,99|0,23|
|dividends|0,65|0,35|0,2|0,00|
|capital|(no data)|527,8 B|491,9 B|473 B|
Yes, they do have debt, but it's a bank, that's their business model...
To the main topic, why is CRZBY going crazy and will continue doing so?
There are currently ongoing talks about a take-over from the Italian Unicredit bank. They are threatening a hostile take-over and already hold around 28% of shares, trying to increase their stakeholder power.
Meanwhile Commerzbank is trying to avoid a hostile take-over, but they are apparently not against a merger. We don't know the exact state of negotiations but looks like Unicredit will soon give a formal offer.
Of course to sell at the best price possible Commerzbank also has an interest in pushing the share price up, making them as expensive as possible to buy out. Hence insider buying is also going through the roof, indicading that Commerzbank is trying to "defend" by buying shares aswell.
As a result the share price has been going up and up and up and it will only go further up from here on.
The bank itself is already undervalued and if Unicredit succeeds with the take-over they will do so at atleast twice the shareprice giving the Commerzbank executives and other shareholders a real nice payout.
One thing to mention is the involvment of the German government: The German state is also a major shareholder and as a major German company they are not too happy about such a take-over, especially if it's going to be a hostile one.
But Unicredit chose a very wise time to attempt this. There is currently a re-election in Germany and the ruling parties have no time to worry about this situation, since they have to put all their resources into the election and their election campaigns.
And if there is a new government in 2 weeks (most likely), they'll first have other stuff to sort out.
As a result it is highly unlikely, that the government will put a stop to this take-over.
That's it for today, happy to hear all your opinions.
My positions:
https://preview.redd.it/98t2qau964je1.jpg?width=1007&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c48b47e9381bd4f1a0dfac464fa2cb43f2bcac6
additionally I now own another 1000 shares at 16,19€ from an inheritance account I do not have access to yet, until the paperwork of my deceased great-aunt is all sorted out.
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SMCI Bull Thesis
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SMCI BULLISH Thesis
This has been the most time I've ever spent researching a stock. So far, in matters of relevance, key indicators have been used based on relevant facts over BS fiction short seller reports. Let's look at historical facts and readily available information. SMCI company is BRUTALLY HONEST, and they are being reported as misleading. I will have every short summaries of all relevant information of last delisting, and recent late filing to instill confidence of actually reporting this time. Adding more calls at open. For Mar 21. paper handed a ton already. over 5 k in profits. Been following since $18.already but the more I dig the more confidence I get. Will allocate more of those funds in intervals before Feb 20 as I believe that day will have huge news. Will probably not add any very long dates calls because I believe market cap will increase 100% by Mar21. Probably 300-500% by 27. But those profits for Mar21-April range are going to absolutely generate 1000s% anyways.
This post indicates all relevant information and overlooks no available Info im confident. if I did post a comment as I’ve got over 100 hours jn on this stock now.
Keep in mind CEOs for SMCI and Nvidia are meeting DDN Feb 20 to discuss what DDN says as possibly ground breaking AI news. Black Stone just invested 300m into this Private equity company. I think we can use some of the words SMCI said in the last business update to make this information relevant like “Confidential new product line” he touched on this Feb 12. Let’s keep in mind SMCI offered 700M convertible notes. Not sure what’s about to roll out but I think SMCI was pummeled with legal fees and this news needs money like now. I’m almost certain we have filing before the Feb 25th. I say this 1) DDN Feb 20 2)Before 20th or after but before 25th release all filings1, 10ks, 3, 10Qs. 3) New CFO before 25. 4) NVIDIA discussing huge earnings with new news on huge upcoming projects. Maybe talking and pumping SMCI with proud partner getting ready for this huge BOOM.
Couple this with Trump, EU already talking HUNDREDS of billions will be dumped into AI over next 5 years. Couple this with trump possibly doing big tax cuts, like we’ve seen in the past. And honestly couple this with the true news that this company is literally pulling in 10s of billions as they were in 2023 and are at half the market cap on all this BS news. I think SMCI priced in for SMCI not listing documents and going under selling OTC I’m being serious. 25b rev this year market cap 24b. This is going to change very soon.
Information below this will give you more confidence that SMCI will 100% file based on being honest in the past. And some other miscellaneous things.
1) September 14, 2017. The initial delay in 10-k. \*EXACT WORDS\* "The Company is unable at this time to provide a date as to when the review and the audits will be completed." this is over internal controls over financial reporting for June 30, 2017, 10-k... "Company operating expense expected to be higher for the quarter because of legal and accounting costs."
2) January 30, 2018. Fin info/Management changes/delayed sec filings update... "Audit Committee completed disclosed investigation. We will need additional reviews before the finalized 10k report to determine if changes will need to be made. KEY UNABLE THIS TIME TO PROVIDE DATE FOR 10-K." Today's new CFO is Kevin Bauer. Needs plan update on FEB 28 for filings due March 13 "SEC Compliance."
3) FEB 20, 2018. The exact words 8 days before the deadline... I need more time for 10k and will request an extension on an update for FEB 28. If not granted, they said they had the option to appeal. (Was Granted) extended 180 days
4) May 3, 2018, Fin/Info Because I'm transparent, I include all "KEY POINT relevant updates to show endpoint differences in tones." Back to update, "Audit committee overseeing additional testing company believes it is nearing completion for \*current filings only\*. \*NOT INCLUDING 10K BACK TO BEARISH\*." Then it directly goes back to saying additional testing is required to analyze the impact on the company's historical financial statements and complete 10k... Back to square 1. They say they will file 10Q for sep30,dec31, and March 31 after the 10k release, but there is no update, and they say additional time is needed for 10k. He still needs 10- K by August 24.
5) July30/Aug 7 4Q fin. Results were scheduled for August 7 after the announcement on July 30 and rescheduled to August 21, on August 7. It's horrible News, as the update was critical at this point because delisting would occur if reports were not filed on August 24... This is where I believe all the people claiming SMCI are crooks. \*But keep in mind at no point did they warrant 10-K was anywhere near ready but consistently diligent with saying current reports are looking good "10Qs", but 10 K still needs extensive care and has to be released first, then goes on and says 10K still needs to go through extensive testing for historical info throughout 2017-2018 going all the way to final update\* Yes this information for investors would warrant an even further upset failing to produce positive News for compliance. But again, at NO POINT DID SMCI EVER POST NEWS OF 10 K progress nearing completion up until or by AUG24.
6) August 21 4Q Fin/Info is irrelevant; it is a separate article. SEC FILINGS... It says, as we all know, extreme leaps were made, but they came up short due to the pure magnitude of historical information that needs to be audited. Remember that the AI wave is pumping in tons of new business, and companies need extensive capital for pure growth to come. And also being blasted by legal fees and accounting costs crippling this company's margins and ability to keep up with demand. But at NO POINT EVER INSIGHTED SIGNIFICANT VALUE IN THE PROOF OF RELEASE OF 10K.
Part 2. (1B) 2024/5 current news. (1B1) News compares/contrasts the 2018 delist to the 25 News and relists 2020. (1C) Deception of short sellers HIDENBUGER (closed)actual truths and findings of (EY).
1B) August 28 Delays 10K internal controls over Fin. Reporting.
2B) November 5: A special committee releases information/SEC filing update \* investigation is complete on concerns raised by EY. No fraud or misconduct was found.\* \*But for remedial measures, strengthen internal governance and oversight functions\* says unable to give a time frame on 10k filings\* No auditor is the reason for that
3B) November 18 new auditor BDO. Ask for a time extension. \*November 20 says they will have all updated audited 10ks and 10qs within the discretionary period\* if it is granted time. This, along with the request for late filings of current quarters, is 10 qs.
4(B) DDecember 2review independent committee. It talks about recommendations for a new CFO, executives, and strengthening measures with more experience. As well what was supposed to be assessed raised by EY. concerns "(i) the integrity of the Company's senior management and Audit Committee, (ii) the commitment of the Company's senior management and Audit Committee to ensuring that the Company's financial statements are materially accurate, (iii) the Audit Committee's independence and ability to provide proper oversight over matters relating to financial reporting, and (iv) the tone at the top of the Company about rehiring certain former employees and financial reporting" All concerns raised by EY appeared to hold no weight, and SMCI was compliant with independent committee everything came back good... Very import read SMCI IR December 2 2024 recommend reading full document. Also, SMCI says they believe they will have all filings within the discretionary period. February 25
5B) February 11, 2024 Fin. Update business call. They said they believe they will file all past and current, up-to-date quarterly and yearly forms. By February 25. They can't say anything more than this, but it's a dead giveaway compared to the reports in the past. Also, I subpoenaed the court for a short seller report from Aug(Hidenburg) And all the suits caused by this. SMCI says these are without merit and that no past statements need restatements.
(1B1) January 9 2020 approved relist 14th first trade day.
(2B1) AUG 25, 2020 accounting investigation settlement. They never actually admitted to anything of fraud but indeed paid the settlement. Whether they cooked the books or not, they likely did. Do I find this necessarily bearish? For the time being, yes (2020).
(3B1) Compared, some factors had near resemblances. Based on reports raised by Hidenburg, EY.
(4B1) In Contrast, there was a reasonable likelihood that 2024 issues were raised for external Speculation. In 2017/18, there was a valid reason to believe that SMCI was cooking books.
1C) Hindenburg reports, I'll be 1000% honest: this is the laziest report I've ever seen written. I'll go straight down the list. The statement is fear-mongering availability bias practice; Hurryand reminds them of 2018. Anyways,. It says SMCI was listed in 2018. Get this. I quote, "By August 2020, found improperly reporting revenue and fined." It would've taken half a second to realize this was, for instance, for 2018 delisting. I will tell you that Smci execs after relisting. I will say this with this statement about hiring three execs back 3 months after reinstatement to scare people that they're doing the same thing. No evidence for years after has ever been brought up about the. SEC heavily looked into SMCI after initially relisting. This is absolute madness. Well, I don't need to tell you this is false because there are about five statements down. The new CFO, extremely honest, goes even further in-depth several pages down. Later in the article,. It goes on and on about how great Kevin Bauer would never steal. Then, he says that SMCI cut his head in 2021 so they could get going. He talks about how the SEC liked him and how SMCI feared him being too fair and honest. But as mentioned, they were already improperly recording revenue 3 months after reinstatement. Then he seems to go on about them doing business with his brothers, about an industry I know well. It looks like this brother's company does sub-assembly, a massive manufacturing tool. I'm sure it's way cheaper labor overseas. Then, it acts as if SMCI is wrong for not disclosing them when they didn't have to until the filing. EY was also going through losing 84 companies because they were labeled the company with the most mistakes made by mad numbers. It costs 200 million dollars with all of these losses for EY. This was a perfect chance for EY to take the steam off their prior failures. Anyways, all the information claimed on SMCI has now been claimed as false. Not only this, but EY did all the 10-Q for 2023. Why did they wait until mid-Octoberr after Hindenburg reported a year after they did the auditing on every 10-Q prior to report all of SMCI fraud?
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BigBear.AI (BBAI) -- Time to Get Off? Or go full regard? Here's my DD.
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*\*Second submission attempt with hopefully appropriate position screenshot\**
First, let me give credit where credit is due and give props to this BBAI rally we're witnessing. Pretty impressive, though speculative.
Please see my short position below and allow me to explain why I'm bearish on BBAI and why this party may come to an end soon if retail FOMO/hype runs out. I'll try to keep this high level and brief.
https://preview.redd.it/e400jt6zi0je1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23ba9b2b06c43c486b81abf2d48febd7491883e3
I wanna get into the catalysts that have started this rally. The typical news people praise includes the new CEO and his relationship with Trump, government contracts and backlog. I'll end by giving my thoughts on the stock.
**1. Kevin McAleenan, recently appointed CEO and former DHS Secretary under Trump**
There's speculation that with Trump back in the White House, McAleenan's past relationship with the President will be beneficial for BBAI and may help secure future contracts. I believe this is false and would go as far as saying it actually may be a detriment given their history and here's why:
* BBAI CEO Kevin McAleenan only served as DHS Secretary from April 11, 2019 to November 13, 2019 which was essentially a brief 7-month interim tenure. His tenure was not only short but publicized; CNN reported that Trump referred to him as an "Obama guy" and their relationship ran hot and cold. Additionally, Trump never officially stated if he would give McAleenan the position permanently. McAleenan resigned before we could see otherwise, becoming one of the shortest-serving secretaries in the department's history. *Source:* [Acting Homeland Security chief McAleenan was prepared to resign in June, felt undermined by subordinates](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/08/politics/mcaleenan-immigration-hardliners-white-house/index.html)
* **BBAI CEO Kevin McAleenan on PBS, publicly spoke out about Trump and stated Trump's rhetoric during the attempted insurrection at the State Capitol created a dangerous situation. He went as far as saying that it was an assault on our democracy.** *Source:* [Former head of Homeland Security on the dangers of Trump's rhetoric](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DNoXrWyJiw)
While I won't go as far to say they had a contentious relationship, it certainly appears that they may have lacked mutual respect for each other. You can do a quick google search to find more detail on this, there are a bunch of publications and articles available online speaking to BBAI CEO's resignation and speaking out about Trump.
**2. Government Contracts/Backlog (Financial Analysis)**
*Historical*
Based on historical 9/30/24 TTM, cash burn for operating activities was $23.4 million with cash reserves of $65.6 million that gives them just 2.8 years runway to operate and that's before debt servicing, taxes or extraordinary costs. **So they essentially only have 3 more years of operations in their current financial condition.**
In regards to debt, they reported total debt of $196 million which has recently been restructured and extended from a 2026 maturity to a 2029 maturity. While this 3-year extension is a positive note, it cancelled their $25 million working capital revolver and BBAI will likely need to find additional financing to support operations in the near future. **Given their current leveraged debt position, they will likely not be able to find traditional bank financing which leads them to** **trade equity for cash AKA additional issuance of shares or more dilution**.
BBAI has been and will remain upside down for the foreseeable future. They also do not hold any meaningful tangible assets in a liquidation scenario, most of their assets contain intangible assets (software IP) and Goodwill (acquisition).
*Forward-looking*
Management reports ending backlog at 9/30/24 was $437 million. Unfortunately detail for each contract is not publicly available but we can make some assumptions.
* We know the Army contract is $165 million over 5 years (we'll assume straight-line for simplicity). If we assume the same gross profit margin of \~26% reported for the 9/30/24 period; the Army contract would provide $8.6 million in annual gross profit or $715 thousand monthly gross income.
* $272 million would be remaining in backlog and if assuming a 10 year duration this would provide $7.1 million in annual gross profit or $59 thousand monthly gross income. I'm assuming that the FAA contract is the next largest and that was disclosed to have a 10 year duration. I think this is a reasonable assumption.
* In total we have $15.7 million in annual gross profit for at least the next 5 years. Keep in mind this is also assuming there are no issues/delays with deliverables/work-in-progress or contract draws. My math also assumes that backlog amount is unchanged at the start of 2025 (most likely lower given the work done in Q4 2024).
* OpEX -- TTM operating expenses were reported at $86.6 million which is a monthly amount of $7.2 million. I think it's also important to keep in mind that OpEx has been increasing period over period and that shouldn't be a surprise given the need for R&D in the AI space and scaling of operations like increased headcount to accommodate additional contracts/work size. Engineers aren't cheap but Glassdoor says differently in BBAI's case, which I'll talk about more below.
* So keeping all that rough math in mind, we have about **$70.9 million in annual operating losses** or $5.9 million in monthly operating losses projected in this year. **This is before taking into account debt repayment ($196 million), taxes, or any extraordinary costs that may arise (litigation, bad things, etc.). It also assumes they run into no bumps along the way, operationally, which they have already stated is to be expected and comes with the AI territory. The AI space is a highly competitive space and with everything the Trump administration/DOGE are getting their hands in, I believe there is not only operational risk but reasonable contract risk.** This share price is obviously not reflecting the fundamentals. People are saying one more contract to the moon when in reality BBAI needs contracts just to get to sea-level.
* I should note that these figures do not include the recent contracts from the Navy ($5 billion) and DOD/CDAO ($1.3 million). The reason being, I consider the DOD/CDAO contract nominal at $1.3 million. More importantly, we have no idea how the Navy's SeaPort NxG contract is structured for BBAI besides the news that they've been included in the program and the total program's contract amount. There are thousands of vendors/companies who also have access to this $5 billion. For example. BBAI was among 1,023 companies that were awarded rolling admissions (2nd round) and access to the $5 billion Navy program. **Including first and second round, there are over 2,400 companies accepted in the Navy's SeaPort NxG program. Admitted vendors still compete/bid and are awarded contracts within this bubble. This is not guaranteed revenue. It's essentially on an Ad Hoc basis. This is the case with the FAA contract as well.** *Sources:* [Navy Selects Over 1K Vendors for SeaPort NxG Contract Under 2nd Rolling Admissions](https://www.govconwire.com/2025/01/navy-selects-over-1k-vendors-seaport-nxg-contract-2nd-rolling-admissions/) | [Harnessing Power, Navigating Change... TAKE THE HELM FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICE SOLUTIONS](https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Business-Partnerships/SeaPort-NxG/)
* Quick and dirty math, the above assumptions would get us -$60.2 million in EBITDA (assuming $10.7 million depreciation addback) which would give us a P/S ratio of -0.24x based on 252 million outstanding shares. This ultimately equates to a P/E ratio of -41.7x if we assume an average share price of $10. All non-sense numbers in a nutshell.
* Additionally, they will have $12 million in annual interest expense on their $200 million facility and income taxes will increase with increased income which was previously reported at $22 million for 9-month 9/30/24.
* BBAI's [GlassDoor.com](http://glassdoor.com/) employee reviews reek of the same sentiment with some reviews **this year** going as far as saying *"No clear direction from management and no standard operating procedure"*, *"Whenever it is time to renew the contract for a project, there is issues with government funding which causes delays and even sometime a furlough"*, and *"Never able to bring the 3 distinct companies together as one. C-Suite selling shares like there's no tomorrow. No new contracts that I've seen"*. **Summarized as bad work/life balance, paused inflationary raises (losing money to inflation while working there), lack of direction from management, high turnover, etc.** *Source:* [GlassDoor: BigBear.ai overview](https://www.glassdoor.com/Overview/Working-at-BigBear-ai-EI_IE4857471.11,21.htm)
**Closing Thoughts**
Take my numbers/analysis with a grain of salt.
From a business standpoint, it's not all peaches and cream on the horizon for BBAI -- they are churning and burning with a high need to keep product development and contract generation at a consistently high level. Two very difficult and costly things to do in the AI space.
I have concerns over their financial condition, internal processes, and future cash flow as they do not seem to exist.
Stock price is insanely high for a business that's never turned a profit. Just because it has a few new contracts? Its got the new debt to match too, don't forget.
Not to mention the reputation to boom and bust around this time of year.
I do not know the timing but I think they will likely issue more shares to take advantage of this price action. This thing ain't just going to keep going up and they need all the capital they can get.
Future contracts are not guaranteed, management knows this so they will be constantly exploring ways to secure additional liquidity/working capital...most obvious place for that is share issuance AKA lower share pricing.
I'll end with this -- it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out, especially with the long weekend and earnings being around the corner. I feel like there's still a lot of hype and FOMO, however, I think the stock is overvalued and overbought.
Look at the short interest, I'm not the only one who thinks this.
Wish ya'll the best, hope everyone does well.
I welcome discussion on convincing me to go long.
This is not financial advice.
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Spotify Buy/Sell/Holf
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Spotify Buy/Sell/Hold, is it overvalued?
I've been bullish on SPOT for years, started buying at $73 in 2022 and DCA'd up to a cost basis of $120, so I've done well so far but is my original thesis playing out and still intact?
**OG Thesis:**
My original thesis, shortened so we can focus on today and the future: The majority of Spotify users are ad tier (at the time around 60%), but they made up less than 15% of revenue. Spotify was focused on growing MAUs instead of real monetization, but once the MAU growth starts to slow they will pivot more into monetization. I'm not concerned about more ads scaring away users, some will go to Subscriber tier and the others weren't profitable anyway, since Spotify's expenses are somewhat tied to how many listens they get having less listeners that aren't profitable isn't necessarily bad. Additionally, Spotify started getting into podcasts and I saw that being a driver of future growth. Lastly, I think they have pricing power on subscriptions.
**Past Performance:**
So how has Spotify done over the last 2 years (from Q2 22 to Q4 24)?
|\#'s in Thousands|Q2 2022|Q4 2024|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|MAUs|433|678|54.3%|
|Revenue|2,864|4,242|48.1%|
|Net Income|(125)|367|393.6%|
|Free Cash flow|37|877|2,270.3%|
Key factors tying to my thesis: 2022 Ad tier MAU was 59.12% and contributed to 12.52% of revenue. In 2024 it was 62.96% and 12.66% respectively.
My thoughts based on my original thesis: I did expect Ad tier MAU to begin to contribute more to revenue by now, especially with being an even larger percent of MAU. I like to invest thinking 5 years ahead minimum, so at the time I was thinking by 2027 Ad tier should contribute to 30% of revenue (while maintaining around the 60% of MAU area), there is time left for them to get to the 30% area I wanted to see but I did expect to see SOME improvement. Spotify is also still growing MAU at >10% so I will give some slack in not fully monetizing yet. Spotify has done 2-3 Sub tier price increases with another one announced, so I was right they have pricing power (I wish they used it more on ad tier than loyal Subscribers tho). I am happy with their podcast growth, thankful they realized to cut their podcast spending though.
Overall thoughts: Clearly Spotify figured out the cost cutting and improved FCF and net income at a very healthy clip. I'm also generally happy with the MAU growth but slightly disappointed in Revenue growth. Back to the Ad tier not carrying their weight there. I'm also very pleased with the introduction of audiobooks and video integration. Both I think can be growth drivers with video having huge potential. Personally, as a user, I think they are pricing audiobooks too aggressively for it to do as well as it can.
**Spotify's future:**
I did my own rough estimates for their MAU, revenue, and FCF in 10 years. Then I did an estimate using Spotify's target 1B MAU by 2030 and expanding growth another 5 years.
My method:
I used 4%/yr MAU growth (Subs growing 6% and Ad 2.5%). I won't bore you with too much info, but I made 6 revenue estimates using varying growth of Rev/MAU for Ad and Sub tier. Then I estimated each estimates FCF using 15% (current rate), 20% and 25%.
**M1**
|In thousands|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Revenue**|29,028|92,227|
|**Free Cash Flow**|5,854|23,057|
Now using Spotifys estimate of 1B MAU by 2030 then 5%/yr to 2035. I used the same method for revenue and FCF estimates.
**M2**
|In thousands|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Revenue**|47,964|118,578|
|**Free Cash Flow**|7,195|29,681|
My minimum revenue estimates used 3%/yr growth rev/MAU for both Ad and Sub tier. My max uses 8% for subs and 31% for ad tier BUT with a 10% cut to ad tier MAU to account for upset users. Figures based on average yearly revenue per user, See below:
|Tier|FY 2024 Average|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ad|56|75|120|
|Subscriber|5|7|75|
**Valuation:**
I like reverse DCF calcs to find what todays valuation should be. For my estimates I used 4% terminal growth and 11% Discount rate. For estimates with Spotify MAU growth I used 3% terminal and 11% Discount rate, with the faster growth I expect less runway for the terminal growth. I will show my RDCF valuations for the Average and Max FCF estimates, not the minimum since it is absolutely overvalued if it doesn't surpass min estimates.
Price today: **$647.66**
|Average M1|Max M1|Average M2|Max M2|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|548.26|841.90|638.41|958.93|
|(15.35%)|30.50%|\-1.13%|48.17%|
**Final Thoughts:**
As the valuations show, Spotify has upside if they surpass some pretty hefty targets. But even hitting my average estimates doesn't give much upside at the current price, M2 average assumes 23.5% FCF growth for 10 yrs which is no joke. I'm still bullish on the company, but I'm **Holding** for now with buying as an option on a 12%+ dip from current prices.
**Thesis going forward:**
My original thesis is mostly still in play. I see a future where monetizing the ad tier can lead to significant growth. Podcasts, audiobooks and video have huge potential and can drive growth the hit my highest estimates. Podcasts and audiobooks gives support to price increases and better advertising opportunities while also having higher potential margins due to less royalties. Video can drive more streaming hours and grab some market share from Youtube or other streamers. Spotify is integrating it slowly and they didn't mention tapping into a youtube-like video platform but if they can successfully pull it off any market share gain will lead to better than expected growth.
For me to buy more I will like to see video progress and/or higher ad RPU or achieving 15%+ Subscriber growth. At current valuations I don't see a way to justify the valuation with less than 25% of revenue coming from Ad tier. It just isn't sustainable to raise subscription prices enough to justify the valuation, which is why 15%+ growth here could sway me to buy.
Selling would involve losing MAU without significantly increasing ad tier RPU, stagnant MAU and RPU growth, or ad tier growing higher than 65% without contributing more than 15% of revenue. I'd probably sell some if it increases above $730, it'd be my first 10-bagger and over-priced for me. So I'd want to lock in that kind of gain and buy again at a better valuation.
Repost to add positions
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Moar!!!! Down with the TWLO . Someone please tell me what they do
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$SXT – THE DYING RAINBOW: worse for your portfolio than Red5
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Listen up, degenerates. Tomorrow, the **Skittles Factory of Wall Street**, otherwise known as **Sensient Technologies ($SXT)**, drops its earnings. And I’m here to tell you why this thing is about to get curb-stomped harder than a bag of Doritos in a fat kid’s backpack.
1. FDA Just Banned Red Dye No. 3 – And This Is Just the Beginning
Last week, the FDA officially banned Red Dye No. 3 in foods and medicines, citing health risks. This isn’t just some fringe move—consumer and regulatory pressure against artificial additives is growing. Sensient relies heavily on artificial colors and flavors, and while they do have “natural” alternatives, the reality is that these regulations chip away at their core business.
RFK Jr. isn’t behind this ban, but his stance on ultra-processed foods and chemicals in the food system makes it clear: more restrictions are coming. If the government keeps tightening the noose on artificial ingredients, Sensient is in trouble.
2. Junk Food Demand Is Down, and Inflation Isn’t Helping
Most of Sensient’s biggest customers are processed food companies—the same ones that load up on artificial coloring and flavoring. But with inflation squeezing consumer wallets, people are buying fewer unnecessary products.
Shoppers are sticking to basic essentials instead of splurging on premium snacks, candies, and artificially flavored drinks.
Big food brands are raising prices, but they can’t pass all the costs down, which means they’re cutting back on suppliers—and Sensient is one of them.
This demand slowdown is a serious problem because Sensient doesn’t control pricing power. They’re at the mercy of major food companies, and when those companies cut costs, suppliers like SXT feel the pain first.
Im regarded. So I bought puts for tomorrow
21/2 75P
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Analyzing Undervalued Tech: Intels Semiconductor Manufacturing
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Alright bonobos, I put all my creativity into making a title that spells AUTISM so I hope that will be enough to make you at least skip all this text and read the TL;DR of this post. While I start this of in WSB style the content is supposed to be serious. I'm writing this post in tribute to Nana and hope her regarded grandson is still holding. 🙏
I will cover:
* Product Status
* CEO Status
* Geopolitical Developments
* Notable 13F Filings
* Sentiment
* My Position
**Product Status**
So the main take I see on X and Reddit is that Intel's products suck and their financials are even worse. Well guess what, that take is still valid today. And what's worse about this situation? TSMC is the one producing these products.
So, that part is the reason why Intel's market cap is now only 37% of Palantir's but that might also be the worst possible comparison I can make at this point.
Now onto the positives. Intel recently released consumer GPUs which are called Battlemage. These are already highly praised in subreddits about pc building and seen from the posts are also often out of stock and even scalped like it's 2021 again. They are also releasing new CPUs with naming schemes that are harder than they were but here too the first benchmarks are looking very good (like the Ultra 9 275HX).
These new designs in combination with switfly improving drivers are not the big revenue drivers but it is a clear hint to what they're capable of.
The most important thing about product is that they claim to be on schedule to start 18A high volume manufacturing (HVM) in H2 2025. 18A is a new node technique that is capable of laserbeaming transistors closer together than anyone else including TSMC, meaning chips with higher transistor density. They are also planning on allowing others (like Microsoft) to fabricate their own design chips on this node.
**CEO Status**
Keeping this one short, it will be former GlobalFoundries CEO Tom Caulfield but this news just still has to officially drop sometime soon. (Ok... I'm not 100% sure about this but currently this is the most likely scenario and sentiment about him on socials appears to be very good).
**Geopolitical Developments**
Do I really have to explain this?! If Intel pulls of 18A HVM, they are the only (American) company producing these high tech chips. We know Trumps administration gets hard from hearing the words domestic production and I bet they prefer Intel over TSMCs fabs because well... even with fabs in America it still has Taiwan in its name.
Then early this week we also had this quote from JD Vance on CNN:
*Vance also mentioned other touchstones of Trump’s administration, saying that, “to safeguard America’s advantage,” it will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the US with American-designed and manufactured chips.*
At the same time Intel VP:
*Intel vice president just said in the AI SUMMIT that chips used for AI will be designed and ‘produced’ in the US.*
So after these developments and knowing 18A HVM is coming soon. What I think is most interesting here (hopefully not going fully conspiracy theorist): Why is the Trump administration delaying tariffs on chips specifically? Are they.... are they waiting for... they're not waiting for... right?!?! **Imagine...**
**Notable 13F Filings:**
Alright so, companies with >100M USD are required by the SEC to disclose their trades through a form called 13F which most of you will likely know. The rules for 13F are that they have to file within 45 days after quarter end. Q4 2024 = December 31st. Add 45 days and you get February 14th, add some SEC processing time and the peak of new filings usually hits 15-17th of February meaning for now I have to use the info from Q3.
Overall 13F shows that in Q3 institutions total holdings decreased which, given purely the financials, makes sense (algo say money bad = sell), but that's how your boomer pension funds work. We can also look at the people who will try to fuck us over (and make money) like... Citadel. Even Citadel is boring compared to the next one but Citadel is LOADING up on shares and calls.
Most interesting? Jane Street. These guys are the super nerds that predict the market and are also market ~~manipulators~~ makers. They sold, but that's not the full story. While they have/had a lot of puts which they increased by 18% in Q3, they also increased their calls by 450%. Their new filing for Q4 will likely show another hard trend in this direction.
**Sentiment**
So as we've already seen this week, sentiment is changing in Intel's favor. People are cautiously regaining confidence in their products and that combined with a very favorable administration and a new node could make this one of the most interesting plays one can do in 2025.
**My position**
I got burned around Nana time (believe that was Q2 ER last year) and lost about 10k USD. Got back in over the past few weeks with a 20$ avg. for 3000 shares.
**TLDR**
Screw that this post took too long and we have a TLDR bot these says so read the bots comment. I will add WSB emoji tax after posting so I can do it on my phone.
EDIT: Phone tax: “🙌💎🦅pleas fly again 🦅💎🙌”. REPOSTED because mods deleted it since it had no screenshot of position...
Position (65k EUR):
https://preview.redd.it/h5ablj19nwie1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7e077fc7e237ff265f105a84f52c7ce6073044e
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Case for a super-stellar NVDA Earnings and unprecedented growth
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**Case for a super-stellar NVDA Earnings and unprecedented growth**
**TL;DR**: Immediate PT 162 after earnings event on 2/26
*Disclaimer*: I have 10+ years of extensive AI background (before it was cool) in leading industry and academic institutions with multiple first-author top AI research papers and patents. Never worked for NVDA, and have worked with their proprietary chip-software CUDA since 2013.
All of this note is manually typed out, without the use of ChatGPT or any GenAI platform (also added in the post on why). May not respond to comments, but if something jumps out to me, may edit the post.
**Not Financial Advice** (NFA) - do your own DD, and evaluate your risk tolerance.
This contains a) verifiable quantitative elements, b) interpretations on continued growth, c) current GenAI limitations, fueling further innovation, d) Leading public personalities' testimonies with supporting numbers
* Will leave out comments on some research components signaling increased demand for NVDA to avoid conflict of interest by my employer and ongoing research pursuits.
* So, the following thesis contains publicly verifiable information for anyone with an internet connection and a computing device.
***Thesis***:
**Quantitative indicator** (no emotions or belief needed):
**CapEx** (sic) (post DeepSeek): 44% more than last fiscal year at 320B spend projected
(The graph does not include confirmed orders for xAI, OpenAI, ORCL, Perplexity AI, India)
https://preview.redd.it/5khygj5dauie1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f49e1aeead889dc0bfb04b24a956938523fff792
**Quantitative indicator** (no emotions or belief needed):
Which top Chipmaker gets the revenue for new AI datacenters amongst NVDA, AVGO, AMD
* To be noted: AMD Datacenter revenue this earnings was a miss, despite there being increased demand. So, it should be going to the other contending chipmakers. (AMD's data center earnings was ***6% lower*** than the consensus estimate: Actual $3.9 billion, Expected: $4.15 billion)
* More on NVIDIA's revenue increase in later section
https://preview.redd.it/u7eottfkauie1.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=b547d9757985ea8868432a077314b63a9d0c2673
**Continued AI spend and AI growth**
* **MSFT**: *"Microsoft Azure earnings grow but disappoint, company blames data center capacity constraints"“We have been short power and space. And so, as you see those investments land that we've made over the past three years, we get closer to that balance by the end of this year.” - Amy Hood (MSFT CFO)*"Azure is the infrastructure layer for AI. We continue to expand our data center capacity in line with both near-term and long-term demand signals. We have more than doubled our overall data center capacity in the last three years. And we have added more capacity last year than any other year in our history."
* **AMZN**: Generative AI is a “really unusually large, maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity,” - Amazon CEO Andy Jassy to analyst during ER [call.In](http://call.In) same ER call: “Our deep collaboration with NVIDIA goes back more than 13 years, when we launched the world’s first GPU cloud instance on AWS. Today we offer the widest range of GPU solutions available anywhere in the cloud, supporting the world’s most technologically advanced accelerated workloads. It's why the new NVIDIA Blackwell GPU will run so well on AWS and the reason that NVIDIA chose AWS to co-develop Project Ceiba, combining NVIDIA’s next-generation Grace Blackwell Superchips with the AWS Nitro System's advanced virtualization and ultra-fast Elastic Fabric Adapter networking, for NVIDIA's own AI research and development. Through this joint effort between AWS and NVIDIA engineers, we're continuing to innovate together to make AWS the best place for anyone to run NVIDIA GPUs in the cloud.” *Will skip 'The Jevons paradox' that Jassy shared during the ER call signaling increased AI work and adoption, since everyone must be bored to death by this theory. Also, trying to avoid using emotions or wishful thinking in this research thesis.*
* **NVDA**: **Jensen Huang**, Stanford Conference, 2024 (pre-deepseek or anything remotely similar. How aware he was of events like Deepseek much before it happened, and how he envisions NVDA will keep growing even more as a result of such software improvements)
* ***Question***: "According to your projection and calculation in 5 to 10 years how much more semiconductor manufacturing capacity is needed to support the growth of AI"
* ***Answer***: "We're going to need more Fabs however remember that we're also **improving the (software) algorithms and the processing of it um tremendously over time** it's **not as if the efficiency of computing will be what it is today** and therefore the demand is this much in the meantime I'm **improving Computing by a million times every 10 years** while **demand is going up by a trillion times** and that has to offset each other does that make sense and then there's technology diffusion and so on so forth that's just a matter of time but it doesn't change the fact that one day all of the computers in the world will be changed 100% every single data center will be all of those general purpose Computing data centers 100% of the trillion dollars worth of infrastructure will be completely changed and then there'll be new infrastructure built on even on top of that"
* ***Question***: You make completely State of-the-art chips. Is it possible though, that you'll face competition, that claims to be good enough, not as good as Nvidia, but good enough, and and much cheaper is that a threat. *See highlighted/bolded section if you don't want to read the long answer*
* ***Answer***:*TL;DR*: **our TCO (Total Cost of Operations to the AI customer) is so good that even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough.**"We have more competition than anyone on the planet has competition. Not only do we have competition from competitors, we have competition from our customers, and I'm the only competitor to a customer fully knowing they're about to design a chip to replace ours, and I show them not only what my current chip is, I show them what my next chip is, and I'll show them what my chip after that is.And the reason for that is because, look, if you don't make an attempt at explaining why you're good at something, they'll never get a chance to buy your products. And so, we're completely open book in working with just about everybody in the industry.And the reason for that—our advantage—is several. What we're about is several things. Whereas you could build a chip to be good at one particular algorithm, remember, computing is more than even Transformers. There's this idea called Transformers; there's a whole bunch of species of Transformers, and there are new Transformers being invented as we speak. And the number of different types of software is really quite rich.And so, we can accelerate that. We can accelerate quantum physics. We can accelerate Schrödinger's equations. We can accelerate just about everything—fluids, particles, lots and lots of code.And so, what NVIDIA is good at is the general field of accelerated computing. One of them is generative AI. And so, for a data center that wants to have a lot of customers—some in financial services, some in manufacturing, and so on—in the world of computing, we're a great standard. We're in every single cloud, we're in every single computer company, and so our company's architecture has become a standard, if you will, after some 30-some years. And so, that's really our advantage.If a customer can do something specifically that's more cost-effective, quite frankly, I'm even surprised by that. And the reason for that is this: Remember, our chip is only part of it. Think of when you see computers these days—it's not a computer like a laptop. It's a computer, it's a data center, and you have to operate it. And so, people who buy and sell chips think about the price of chips. People who operate data centers think about **the cost of operations (TCO)**—our *time to deployment, our performance, our utilization, our flexibility across all these different applications in total* allows our operations cost—they call it total cost of operations, TCO—**our TCO is so good that even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough**. And that is our goal—to add so much value that the alternative is not about cost. And so, of course, that takes a lot of hard work, and we have to keep innovating and things like that, and we don't take anything for granted. But we have a lot of competitors."
* **Perplexity AI CEO**: [https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1889668709356023942](https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1889668709356023942) "Need to clarify this in no ambiguous terms: We still think **NVIDIA is peerless and singular and the industry leader by far. And nothing changes in our relationship with them**. I like Andrew and Cerebras team and they have really done good work in helping us achieve the 1200 tok/sec. It’s primarily the quality of our post training and the value of the data we have collected as a product that’s serving so many millions of users that got us to be better than the lightweight OpenAI and Anthropic models and on-par with the bigger ones. **All this was done on NVIDIA GPUs**. We benefitted a lot from Llama 3.3 that was trained with a ton of NVIDIA GPUs. We still **serve majority of the models we serve on production on NVIDIA GPUs**, eg custom versions of Llama and DeepSeek R1. **Cerebras or Grok are not robust chips** that can handle both dense models and sparse MoEs yet. NVIDIA chips can do any model class really efficiently. Cerebras is still bound by capacity constraints. I wish the Cerebras team and Andrew the best and glad we’re working with them and I think competition is good for the industry and will push NVIDIA to innovate faster on Blackwell and next generation of chips. But, *I do not appreciate any clickbait PR that claims Perplexity is moving away from NVIDIA or NVIDIA moats are disappearing*. We did not participate in that PR ourselves."
**On DeepSeek:**
The viral blog was authored by Jeffrey Emanuel (BA, Reed College, 2005), who does not hail from an AI background (academic or industrial), and does not have experience at a top-firm of their field (buy-side, or sell-side, or IB). So, the infamous blog which caused a flash crash of 600B in a day, may not be well founded and may feel sloppy to say the least. Prior AI investment experience does not necessarily evoke sound understanding to identify bloated claims from research papers. All it created was a stampede in a crowded theatre of people who wanted to be the first one out of the stampede, and are too scared to go back in, after it was found to be a hoax. The Chain-of-Thought concept explored in the paper is not new, and has been there for quite a few years. The paper took a departure from regular fine-tuning and relied on CoT processes which produces more grounded responses. The total cost of creating the model was grossly understated, and the results released in their paper was selectively shared, while it underperforms on few non-reported metrics.The AI research community needs just the very best GPUs to carry out their experiments, serving models via inference is just one aspect where people may even try to customize their specialized chips (see Jensen's response in earlier point), but the superpower of NVDA chips is how far ahead they are for the competition to even catch up, that AMD CEO famously stated that NVDA chips are so far ahead, that they chose to not compete with NVDA in creating the best chips - someone can link the news piece, if they have it readily available.
**On Need for more compute**:
While it may be noted that GenAI is mostly task-based, and not AGI, a challenge most researchers are figuring out rather than beating another state-of-the-art performance on yet another curated dataset.
**The most understated aspect is that model developers need the most state-of-the-art devices so as to not be constrained in their experiments and prefer general purpose devices for experiments to create breakthroughs. There will always be firms playing catchups and creating optimization, while industry leaders will strive to stay ahead as opposed to becoming an IBM, who stayed stuck in the older era of computing.**
https://preview.redd.it/vigya6z9auie1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76763f0e9207efe71cda164b303dda0cb0241312
**NVDA GPU backlogs**:
The GPU orders are so backlogged, that prompted the AMZN CEO Andy Jassy to mention his investment in proprietary chips, to let users have a choice of cheaper chips, despite them not being the very best (see earlier section on his ER comments for added context): "customers that they want better price performance on their AI workloads. As customers approach higher scale in their implementations, they realize quickly that AI can get costly. It's why we've invested in our own custom silicon in Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. The second version of Trainium, Trainium2 is starting to ramp up in the next few weeks and will be very compelling for customers on price performance."
Also refer to other chipmakers like AVGO and Cerebras. *Counter*: See the earlier point made by Perplexity CEO.
While there will always be competitors as Jensen stated in section 3, they are well aware of their moat, and while there is always another social media app competing with Facebook (META), there is always a leader, and leads to better products and aggressive growth, rather then devolving into an IBM. As an example, one would strive to hire a top scientist from a top-school, as opposed to hire a person self-taught in their basement and using their local-resources. As always, exceptions exist.
**Moat** (outside of the earlier point on competition note by Jensen):
This segment is over and above NVDA CEO Jensen's (pre Deepseek) and Perplexity's comments (post Deepseek). Keeping this additional segment short, and invite readers to read up further on it, since it is more technical than the rest of the thesis.I have been using CUDA since 2013, which many *current GenAI experts (recently-minted from deepseek fiasco)* may not have had a chance to explore. Some of their other propietary technologies are CUDA, nCCL, cuDNN, TesorRT, NVLink, MIG, OptiX, DOCA (Data Center-on-a-Chip Architecture).AMD & Intel don’t have a CUDA alternative (ROCm is underdeveloped, and Intel's OneAPI is not competitive). NVIDIA’s ecosystem (CUDA + TensorRT + hardware) is an end-to-end solution that competitors lack.
**Quantum**:
They have been invested in Quantum technologies, and are hosting the upcoming"***NVIDIA GTC 2025: Quantum Day to Illuminate the Future of Quantum Computing***" [https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/), March 17-21, 2025: "At the first-of-its-kind event, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang will host industry leaders to discuss where quantum computing is headed".
While I can not comment on the ethicality of his recent quantum jab, but they have been very heavily invested in R&D in this space.While Quantum has two main approaches (annealing, and gate-based), one of which is currently usable (annealing) and the other (gate-based) is currently experimental. NVDA may have recognized this and I suspect his comment was aimed at the gate-based quantum approach.
**Conclusion**:
I need to go to sleep, so have to call it a day and wrap it up, although there are some additions on how the fear generated by a half-baked viral blog by Emanuel Jeffrey, that may have been necessary, but nevertheless was unfounded. It is understandable, since the AI revolution may be seen as having three facets: a) the model creators, b) model use-case creators, and c) AI users. From my understanding of people, the people in the model-creators segment are not necessarily very vocal, except in research efforts and publications, and not as visible in the wall-street or media. As always, exceptions exist.
**Not Financial Advice** (NFA) - do your own DD, and evaluate your risk tolerance.
**My Position**: Expecting PT 162/stock post-earnings on 2/26.
https://preview.redd.it/lpdwm95m7uie1.png?width=1248&format=png&auto=webp&s=2feb1d06345b551e5faf0bb837493e46897e4cd7
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Tomorrow we go to Valhalla. TTD
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107 puts expiring 💝 day. I want $70.
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$INTC The most hated 10 bagger that will make grandma proud
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TLDR; only truly American fab. With AI race at full speed, semiconductor hardware (NOT SOFTWARE) will become the defining strategic resource of the superpowers.
People will say oh but TSMC is better at production, but NVDA designs better chips, but AMD. We have to take a trip through the history of TSMC and its founder Morris Chang as well as the cold war.
Let's look at Morris. He went to Harvard and MIT and then stayed in the US to work for Texas Instruments for 30 years, obtaining his American citizenship in the process. 30 years is more time than many in this app have lived thus far. I'd say he's an American through and through. He was next in line for the position of CEO at TI, but ultimately because he was of Chinese descent he was turned down for the role. Now, at the age of 55, the Taiwanese government reached out to him to fund a fab company; TSMC is born.
AI will be more important than the space race and the nuclear arms race. The implications are so profound that nations are no longer cooperating to build it together and are strategically trying to limit the advancement of their enemies; e.g. blocking Nividia chip sales to China. The most effective embargo is a hardware embargo.
With national security at stake, if they didn't trust Morris to run TI, what would make them trust TSMC to be the sole provider of chips to America? And on a side note, with TSMC in Taiwan and the vast majority of chips being produced in a country neighboring China, that risk level is over 9000. China is already designing and producing their own chips with varying degrees of success. You guys can fill in the blank of what the US government fears the most. It is absolutely crucial to have production back in the US.
That leaves us with the only option, Intel. It is the only company that has a full white lineage of leadership. Real American Company as some would say.
P.S. to the haters when I shorted tesla, I covered for a 3k profit 🐻🫡
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Ultimate CELH dip to rip 🚀🚀🚀
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So an opportunity has presented itself and I want to share it with my regarded brothers. While rotating as a medical student at different hospitals across the country, one thing that was common amongst them: all doctors, residents, nurses, etc all had Celsius on tap in their hands. Compared to coffee, it tastes better, doesn’t stain their pearly whites, ver convenient, and was easy to sip on not being hot. At one of the largest hospitals in the world in Houston, Texas, they had a lounge where there was always plenty of Celsius available to keep these people working.
Point being Celsius consumption is through the roof while their stock has gone down incredibly low (-74% over the last year).
While it continues to get beaten down, I believe this provided a great chance for a bounce play, or being bought out by Pepsico, who already has a roughly 10% stake in them.
TLDR: call go boom x5 to the moon imminently,
4/18 30Calls 🚀🚀🚀
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QBTS D Wave primed for a pop?
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Personally, I think this company is in a very advantageous position. They offer both Cloud services and functional quantum computers. And they’ve shown that their quantum computing can be scaled which all but alleviates the concern of precision degradation. Intel an IBM state within the next 3 to 5 years, quantum computing will become practical. Meanwhile, Nvidia, who know absolutely nothing about quantum computing firmly stick their foot in their mouth about it. Perhaps because they are directly competing, perhaps because their stock is tanking, perhaps because deep seek made them look like a bunch of idiots, I don’t know. 😂
Yeah, I’m in anyway. I think we’re in a wedge position that is just primed to Pop. These guys are in a very good position to pick up some government contracts right now I think.
Anywho, good luck behind the Wendy’s. 🍻
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Rocket Lab is more than a meme stock 🚀
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Rocket Lab (RKLB) had a great run in 2024. After hitting a quintuple bottom at $3.47 in April 2024, it broke out of a three year bear-market and rallied 690% to $27.44 last Friday, at 12.3 billion market cap. While the rocketing stock price seems too hot to touch, the stock is just getting started.
* Electron rocket has solidified its reputation in the industry. There are only three companies capable of reusable rockets: SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin.
* Neutron is going to be the true challenger to Falcon 9, this year's maiden launch is major catalyst for the stock.
* RKLB is vertically integrated space company, capable of satellite manufacturing, rocket launch, and space system support (rocket launch contributes only 30% of the company revenue).
# Electron Rocket
The small **reusable** rocket carved a niche market out of Falcon 9. Electron cost 7.5 million (now raised to 8.5 million) per launch with 300 kg payload. Falcon 9 cost $70 million with 23 tons payload. While the cost-per-kilo is obviously worse for Electron, it is a commonly misunderstood metric. You don't buy a fraction of the rocket by multiply cost-per-kilo with your payload weight. You either buy the whole rocket, or ride-share with other passengers. Electron is like UberX, you book it at anytime, go anywhere, depart anytime, and reschedule as you wish. Falcon9 is like carpool. You wait for all the passengers to get onboard, and only leave at a time when it works for everyone.
Electron has [16 launches in 2024](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/missions-launched/) with 100% success rate. Notably it launched two missions within 24 hours on Nov 24 and 25, on its **two private-owned spaceports** in New Zealand and USA. Booking an Electron rocket is easy as booking UberX for space.
[100% success rate in 2024](https://preview.redd.it/a5tu81w04aie1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebd10344389bda651c69eaf96a9849d166c76059)
[Electron Rocket standing on New Zealand launch complex](https://preview.redd.it/xz8561kb6bie1.png?width=2366&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b1abe065538711b68b9646796c7fb0a198ed67)
# Neutron Rocket
Everyone knows about Electron at this point. If RKLB were just about Electron, it would be overvalued now. But few people understand the Neutron yet. This is a medium-lift rocket comparable to Falcon 9. When it was first announced, it was scoffed at for its dull resemblance to Falcon 9. Then something amazing happened. Neutron design morphed into a **BBC rocket – a chubby, black, sexy dildo shape**. While its competitors are still trying to clone Falcon 9, Neutron has been redesigned from first principles, and ready to shock the space industry.
>It's a rocket from 2050. – Rocket Lab CEO, Peter Beck
[The \\"unexciting\\" Falcon 9 clone](https://preview.redd.it/ys7qsv4ky9ie1.png?width=3070&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c3e00d7f7516140655f36f57d8d1ca52378cec6)
[Neutron design: before vs after](https://preview.redd.it/udf1ig5xu9ie1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=7820434a993364e5029010fbd5d1b62d7970635c)
***Second Stage Rocket Redesign***
Unlike its competitors which stack second stage rocket on top of the first stage. The second stage rocket is placed inside the first stage. The tip of the rocket (fairing) opens up like a hippo mouth to spit out the second stage rocket. It comes with 3 advantages:
* The second stage is protected from aerodynamic forces. So the second stage doesn't have to be aerodynamic. It can be any shape you like.
* The second stage is protected by the fairings, which are permanently attached to the rocket Unlike Falcon 9 which discards the fairings, Neutron designed its fairing to be an integral part of the rocket for rapid reuse.
* Because other rockets place the second stage on top of first stage. The second stage is subject to compression force as the rocket goes up. Neutron "hangs" the second stage inside, pulling the second stage upward. What difference does this make: Neutron carbon fiber is much stronger under tension than compression. This makes the second stage much simpler and more fuel-efficient. Rocket Lab is the carbon fiber alchemist. They can 3D-print carbon fiber faster than Fed can print QE.
I took the summary from the video [Who wins the reusability race](https://youtu.be/Ynebk_71sxM?si=oIw-miQnUnPleC_I&t=480). It's an in-depth video that every RKLB investor should watch.
[Neutron \\"Hungry Hippo\\" fairing opening and releasing stage 2](https://preview.redd.it/mpgk5myz3bie1.jpg?width=1120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe7d655fa9bb61ad031a5992ed7ff141dac5a179)
**iPhone Moment**
When Neutron hits the market, it will be the iPhone moment of Space. We have seen enough homogenous looking rockets stacking one stage on another, with more and more fuels. Neutron achieves better reusability (fairing) and fuel efficiency through radical redesign. It is built from first principle, ignoring what everyone else has been doing.
The radical redesign is like Apples "think different." This is not the only trait that reminds me of Apple. RKLB's obsession with vertical integration reminds me of how Apple obsesses with user experience from hardware to software. The clean, minimalistic design of the Electron rocket and the launch pad stands in stark contrast to other rockets which must launch with wired "ICU" life-support tower. Neutron takes one step further. It is designed to launch and land on its own, without any fancy structure on the ground.
[Clean & crisp Electron launch](https://preview.redd.it/jynjk528aaie1.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5076fdba6aeec0a6d4e947def84950787b98762)
**Engineering Excellence**
The market has not priced in Neutron success. It's first flight was supposed to happen in 2024 but delayed to 2025. Delay sucks but it's not uncommon in space. But it also means catalyst is still ahead of us.
Elon Musk intentionally kept SpaceX private in order to shield it from public pressure. SpaceX can blow up rockets and burned R&D cash with abandon. Rocket Lab does not have such luxury. It is under immense pressure to deliver. Their engineering track record is stellar. Rocket Lab's Electron cost 100M R&D to get to orbit and plan to spend just 300M on Neutron. Falcon rockets cost \~2.5B in R&D (excluding Falcon heavy).
Will Neutron succeed on its first try? I don't think the stock has priced it in. Even Falcon 9 had two in-flight failures and one pre-flight failure. Few people are expecting Neutron to succeed on first try. But the possibility is not zero. Electron rocket almost entered orbit on its first launch. It was aborted due to a communication glitch on the ground, causing the operator to destroy the rocket. If their engineers keep on pushing, they might deliver the biggest surprise to rocket history.
[Neutron competitor R&D cost](https://preview.redd.it/tw8b8uon4aie1.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e7c3273dc2bb35fa3726e908dd45028a0f4ca4c)
# Other DD
**Survival of the fittest:** The three year bear market hit space industry hard. The weak competitors have been shaken out. Virgin Galactic and Momentus stock prices are in the toilet. Virgin Orbit has gone bankrupt. Astra Space has been taken private after 99% stock crash. The survivors of the bear markets are the fittest.
**Peter Beck**: a humble genius workaholic. He has no college degree, got massive balls, strapped rocket engines to his bike and went full YOLO, applied to NASA, hated its bureaucracy, then quit to start his own rocket company. He was talking about how to build rocket at age 32. He's still talking about it today. He's dedicated to one thing his entire life. And at age 49, he's still full of LIFE.
[Peter Beck demonstrating the art of YOLO](https://preview.redd.it/dfol6j53odie1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d08c28ffb6953d3f5c60c8a6a5e1a719192dfecc)
**Political tailwind:** With Orange man in the House, Elon Musk as space cheerleader, and Nasa new chief Jared Isaacman who likes Rocket Lab, we are entering a very favorable 4-year term for the space industry.
**About SpaceX**: SpaceX is unquestionably the king of space. I can only say, space is BIG. It's more than enough for one company to thrive. The political detachment of RKLB is an advantage over SpaceX, as Elon's enemies are going to SpaceX a hard time sooner or later..
**Cathie Wood** sold 70,252 shares of RKLB in ARKQ and ARKX fund. What can I say? 🚀
**Jim Cramer** does NOT recommend buying. On Nov 24 last year: "'It's Not A Bad Company By Any Means, But It Is Up 305%'.". The stock was $24 back then. It went up 38% to hit all time high $33.34 on Jan 24, and has corrected nearly 20% since then. 🚀
**Investor community:** r/RKLB dip buyers are in no rush to cash out. Most of them are long term HOLDers. They are really nice people and they hate wsb fomo. They don't want RKLB to be a meme stock, but who can stop the rocket when it decides to go up? 🚀
**Technical analysis**: I have never seen a stock battling major resistance so many time so hard. Since January, RKLB has challenged and rejected by $30 eight times, each time with higher lows. A weak-ass stock doesn't challenge major resistance so rigorously. While it has been frustrating for bulls, the stronger the resistance, the stronger the support it becomes after break out.
# Price Target
With SpaceX valued at 350 billion in **private market**, Rocket Lab 12.3 billion market cap is chump change. I expect Rocket Lab to deliver Neutron, and continue its track record of engineering excellence. **A conservative 1/10 valuation of SpaceX would place RKLB at 35 billion, or $78 per share.** But I expect the share price to go much higher than that after Neutron hit the market and everyone realizes what a genius 🚀 it is.
Bears can bash me with their price-to-sales ratio and other financial metrics. That's not how you price new technology, trend, and sentiment 🚀🚀🚀. Just because it's up 700% from rock bottom doesn't mean it's too late. Good stocks go up and they keep going up. Get used to averaging up.
# Position
Brokerage account: 5000 shares, 10 leap spread strike $15/$50 expiring Jan 2026
https://preview.redd.it/dsdsi8dm8aie1.png?width=3234&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5e7414f73b1db732adc437c9b917a33a79f340a
IRA 1: 2000 shares
https://preview.redd.it/cpqewgep8aie1.png?width=3282&format=png&auto=webp&s=3802a8e869aac3983bf2153c6690bc38b0df35ee
IRA 2: 908 shares
https://preview.redd.it/oyqknxg78aie1.png?width=3208&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf02b1181afe48d91e694788ef4d06f3b0557c71
Merchandise: poster, bottle, T-shirt
https://preview.redd.it/ol9g97658aie1.png?width=1358&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bb6c9c62f99a01f04625133970eadb7d98d511d
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Why Estimates For NVIDIA's Q4 Revenue Could Be Dead Wrong: The Case for NVIDIA's Next Blowout Report
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TL;DR: Estimating NVIDIA's Q4 FY2025\* revenue from the capex of its four largest customers using linear regression results in an estimated revenue that is significantly higher than Wall Street's expectations.
*\*Note: Although it may sound confusing, NVIDIA is in fiscal year 2025 and will report its* [*Q4 FY2025 results on February 26, 2025*](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx)*.*
*This is the author’s opinion only, not financial advice, and is intended for entertainment purposes only. The author holds a beneficial long position in NVIDIA Corporation. The author receives no compensation for writing this article and has no business relationship with any of the companies mentioned. The following analysis has been carefully conducted, but numbers or calculations may be incorrect, leading to potentially incorrect results.*
NVIDIA will report its Q4 FY2025 financial results on February 26. The consensus estimate for NVIDIA's Q4 revenue is [$38.13 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANOTJUpcAKXWdLKLCN4HDOw3xKM2mpDinXbx-3Ru72Xm5RtzQ8Qf0ruVaAPw61jJOwPbZHkqX9X2SRQvZJqafxEFMyTmQoFXdmxWLKJ-26YBEwQoOy5EcgpCEHOlmOzeyyZXGeSD-90RiaVAj_H8nFt0DtbA37mKFQUC-eGlN5tA). In the past two weeks, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, NVIDIA's largest customers, have reported earnings. [One of the biggest headlines](https://www.ft.com/content/634b7ec5-10c3-44d3-ae49-2a5b9ad566fa) was the announcement that these four companies plan to spend approximately $320 billion in capital expenditures (capex) through 2025:
|Year|Meta|Alphabet|Microsoft|Amazon|Sum|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2024 ($bn)|39.2|52.6|75.6|77.8|245.2|
|2025 (planned, $bn)|65.0|75.0|80.0|100.0|320.0|
Much less attention was paid to the significant increase in capital expenditures by these companies last quarter:
|Category|Meta|Alphabet|Microsoft|Amazon|Sum|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Last quarter reported ($bn)|14.425|14.276|15.804|27.834|72.339|
|Previous quarter ($bn)|8.258|13.061|14.923|22.620|58.862|
|Change from previous quarter|\+74.7%|\+9.3%|\+5.9%|\+23.1%|\+22.90%|
Since these 4 companies are the largest buyers of NVIDIA's GPUs, it makes sense to examine a correlation between these companies' quarterly capex and NVIDIA's quarterly revenue. For the last 7 quarters, we get a strong correlation coefficient of 0.95 (Pearson correlation). Now, if we use linear regression to estimate NVIDIA's revenue for the yet-to-be-reported Q4 2025 based on this data, we get quarterly revenue of $49.265 billion, which is more than $10 billion above the consensus analyst estimate.
https://preview.redd.it/fuwtgc4iv9ie1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=477315081203fddfa64c4744f2429c371c4a8041
Of course, NVIDIA's GPUs account for only a portion of these 4 companies' reported capex. However, given the recent disappointing results from NVIDIA's competitor AMD, that portion may have increased. It could also be that a lot of datacenters have been built now and these costs were already incurred in previous quarters, leaving more capex for NVIDIA's GPUs - and the newly built datacenters should now have plenty of room for the upcoming Blackwell generation. Of course, companies like Alphabet are also building their own AI chips, but they are much less cost-effective than NVIDIA's Hopper generation and especially the upcoming Blackwell generation. Or as [Amazon CEO Andy Jassy put it on an analyst call last week](https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-price-87ccceac?mod=RTA): "*most AI compute has been driven by Nvidia chips, and we obviously have a deep partnership with Nvidia and will for as long as we can see into the future.*" All in all, one could assume that the share of capex from these 4 companies going to NVIDIA may have even increased in the last quarter.
In addition, there are other major buyers of NVIDIA's GPUs: xAI, for example, has also purchased tens of thousands of NVIDIA's GPUs and built the massive supercomputer [Colossus with 100,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-networking-xai-colossus). Another massive buyer of NVIDIA's GPUs has just formed with Project Stargate, which plans to invest a staggering [$500 billion in new AI infrastructure](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/) over the next four years. All of this should continue to be a strong wind in NVIDIA's sails.
My positions: 200 NVIDIA shares.
https://preview.redd.it/j0g34hamv9ie1.jpg?width=1149&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0f3896af535ba99a9f1c040540704712323d0ef
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NKE Potential High Reward Setup with full analysis and position.
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**MONDAY UPDATE**: Monday closed at day high, above Friday's high, block trades shows institutional support the battle of 70 has clearly established it as strong accumulation support, this should gap up nicely tmr as analysts identify the trade blocks and feel more confident of entering position; could rally 2 days in a row, if we hit 74 tmr, id expect a squeeze to around 77-78, that will probably be my exit.
Position update, the 1200 calls gone up by 25% or about 20k unrealized gain, i will hold it through for a 10 bagger, also added 500 calls for this friday at 73 strike for 0.24, may exit this on Wednesday or a second impulse move regardless if it hits 78 price target or not; il be happy with hitting 75 which is the POC for the past few months.
**TUESDAY UPDATE:** right on cue we had battle of 71.5 today, bullish price action is very nice, typical consolidation, stop loss should be adjusted to 70 ish, tmr is very crucial as now the price retraced back to value low, if Wednesday we see strong volume heading back into the 72-78 range, we are in play for a surge as traders now have confirmation last friday's sell off is over reaction; the main target is 75 where POC lies, depending on if we see a strong squeeze, this will be a good level to exit, otherwise scale out between 76, 77 and 78 for this week; if the test low establishes a clear floor, this could be the rally that propels nike to 82 in couple of weeks where the daily 200EMA sits at.
**WEDNESDAY UPDATE:** very strong bullish price action, consolidation at 72.5 which is the 30-min 200EMA, the short sellers came in 72.25 with large blocks, but got bought up easy, set up looking good for momentum traders to join in, tmr should be a nice gap up, as we have fully invalidated last friday's selloff, so the quick sell off range last thursday should have very little resistance, the move could be quick. Taking half of the table at gap up, likely targeting 75 for a 10 bagger, then at 77 is my best case scenario to fully exit weekly calls.
**THURSDAY UPDATE:** hoping to see a break of 73 overnight but it didnt happen, sold at open for 0.65 at 73 first short entry, cost basis 0.21, nice little 300% gain, bought in again for 0.2 at pull back to 15 minute 200EMA, held same amount of original position with 200% profit taken and saved; sold all at the end for 0.8 for another 400% gain; in total ended the day with a 7 bagger; keeping next week's 50k 74C position acquired last friday over the weekend currently at 155k, with 77-78 price target this thing will return 500k; using 30% of winning from weekly calls bought 25k worth of 73 put at 0.3 for risk adjustment as are at a crossroad of 1hr resistance, gonna end the day early and shower. Added more lotto calls at 75 and 76 small positions.
**FRIDAY UPDATE:** sold 73 puts at opening hours for 0.65 that bought for 0.3, did not take new positions for the rest of the day, as again we did not break the resistance overnight, so yesterday's high is the ranging target, seems like this week the market wants to stay building tension. Target for next week is 76.5 and 77.8, 73 should now be the floor and bullish pattern is intact.
**NEXT MONDAY UPDATE:** we have breakout with index and relative strength with Dow very nice, took 50% profit for 10 bagger, now its lotto time, bought 150 puts for intraday hedge, out for 3k profit, the action is strong (will post position screenshot if people actually wants proof). Signing off early to take the wife out, good profit for 2 weeks work, some buddies jumped on the ship, it was good ride, good luck to you all.
**NEXT MONDAY UPDATE 2**: Hit my price target, out of the positions for a nice little 500k gain. Bought protective puts to hedge (i also have long NKE positions), this week max pain is between 73 and 75, slight pullback is possible as we are near 1.5 SD of VWAP for multiple key time frames.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
I believe NKE currently presents a wonderful potentially 10 bagger opportunity with a high likelihood of seeing a short squeeze in the coming weeks; we could see the price go to 82 from 68 (extreme case), which is a 20% gain on stock.
1. Basic Long Term Support
https://preview.redd.it/t142umsdt9ie1.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=25060af42d12b18cbd72865620bf5d931f2abf9d
200-month EMA support
Basic long term support level for reference, at this level institutional actors are active as it provides clear technical reference. We are only in the first week of the month so it is left to be said if we may close above it or not.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
2. Analysis of the Price Action & Technical Setup
https://preview.redd.it/wtc29ulet9ie1.png?width=1555&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a0e09bc3a6ebbf0d63d7e58a0f41027c6a2d703
**- (Neutral Signal) Volume Profile Analysis:** currently we have a break below the 6 months volume profile value low, in English this means we had a breakout to the downside; as you may know, most breakouts fail and lead to strong reversals (ie. bull/bear traps). so now we should be asking "hmmm does this feel like a true breakout?" Nevertheless the breakdown means major funds will be alerted as most funds have protocols on alerts of new lows, so more eyes are now assessing the situation and readying to play.
**- (Neutral Signal) Extreme Volume:** the volume on Friday is comparable to earnings volume, which is almost 3 times the average volume; this is quite significant, the likely explanation is that since the price made new low, it triggers many natural stop losses for the entirety of the last 6 months. This effectively has shaken out near all "weak hands" in the entire range. The abnormal volume could signal capitulation and selling climax (see section on darkpool orders for whether the selling is controlled or panic).
**- (Buying Signal) Dark Pool Accumulation:** go to 5 seconds time frame if you can, and inspect the order blocks during the day and especially near close, you will see huge blocks at 69.50 69.00 68.70, perfect whole numbers of large size typically signal dark pool blocks, the planned manner with a tightening range is a classic bottom fishing behaviour, it generally means that the buy side is taking advantage of the extreme selling by "letting the price to come to them" in a controlled way.
**- (Buying Signal) VWAP:** price settled nicely on Friday right on -2 SD VWAP (6-months anchor from the June 2024 quarter), which is a classic technical level for mean reversion players to enter.
**- (Buying Signal) RSI:** 1-hr and 4 hr RSI are at extremely oversold levels, this coupled with -2 SD VWAP shows a powerful signal for buying.
https://preview.redd.it/u7ezp41gt9ie1.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a64d6e49b7e6b18e728e10618f78346b726cb62
**- (Buying Signal) Clean Technical Low:** the price broke below 6-months low, actually it broke 5 year low as it is only higher than the covid panic crash; at this new low, it provides an intuitive an natural area for short sellers to cover. This along with the fact that the price is at -2 SD VWAP, means we have a confluence of buying interest from mean aversion long traders, value investors, and short seller covers.
https://preview.redd.it/45kh0e5ht9ie1.png?width=1487&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c0b96c38739f8c6eae5652650a509b6b533ef7
\- (Buying Signal) Put/Call Interest: the put call interest for next week has a singular peak at 70 strike, and the ratio is 20 to 1, this is HIGHLY significant as naturally the 70 is the nice and clean floor for the range and put sellers understandable congregate at that level. As the price drops near 70, the short put will be increasing in value, and the put seller option makers will delta hedge by shorting the stock, at 70 these put sellers will have effectively completed there delta hedge, so they will no longer be compelled to do more selling (you should paste this to an AI chatbot for clarification as it can explain the concept in detail). The put sellers will not wish to sell the stock even lower as that would mean there puts will be exercised and they would rather the put be expired worthless.
If you inspect the price action on Friday, it is clear that the selling pressure sits EXACTLY at 70 (ie. where the buying attempts failed and the selling pressure brought the price down to 68.6).
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
3. Analysis on Trader Category & Trade Psychology
This section outlines the expected psychology and positioning of the major players in the market.
\- Institutional Players: Clean technical level, alerted of the new low and is aware of the nice -2 SD value area. Could be instructed to rebalance or rotate over the weekend. The technical indicators support oversold status on multiple time frames.
\- Value / Long Term Investor: the new low provides a natural place to average down for players who have more tolerance for volatility and longer time horizon.
\- Hedge Fund / Option Makers: Put sellers have finished the delta hedge, and no need to short the stock more since it is below 70; if the price rises, these put sellers will have to cover their hedge position by buying the stock back. This accelerates as we break 70 and above.
\- Short Sellers: the new low provides a natural place to cover the short positions without feeling like you missed out; short sellers also compete with each other who can close the position at the best price, as being late means you have to cover high.
\- Retail: most likely their stop losses have been taken out by the breakdown, and now they have forced capitulation. This means selling pressure has been reduced dramatically. Many people are waiting for 65, but the interest at this level is simply too obvious, and the market may have no interesting in letting the obvious deals occur. It could as well bottom at 68, and reverse, leading to FOMO of those prospect longs to buy back higher.
**All in all, we have the possibility of an interesting confluence of multiple parties nearly all aligned for "Buying" - this means strong and quick moves to the upside.**
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
4. Prediction
First few days next week we will likely see:
\- Battle of 69 & 70: the buy side is setting a controlled bottom at 69, the initial sellers at 70 are "option makers" who are not yet completed delta hedging their short put; if 70 is breached and holds, then those put sellers switches from sell side to buy side, as now they must cover their short positions. We Could see in the open a quick test of 69 as the support, if it is brough up, we will test 70.
\- Battle of 71.5: this is the volume profile value low, if the resistance is strong and LOTS of sellers jump in, this actually validates the breakdown, as the old range is rejected; so this will likely be the first major hurdle. If this breaks then we likely see a retracement from 72.5 (-1 SD VWAP) to 71.5, if 71.5 becomes support, then we likely go straight to the POC at 75 with little resistance.
\- Gap to 75: the above situations might occur on monday or tuesday, then if all goes well 75 could be a nice place to gap up to overnight, then the spring is loaded and we move quick to VWAP at 77.5, potentially overshooting to 78.
\- Consolidation at 78: this is the first level where profit takers should emerge, could be a nice place to take short term positions off the table.
\- Burst to 81-82: It is also possible for the spring move to send the price to the +1 SD VWAP level, which incidentally is also the 200-day EMA, this provides a super natural resistance and a great place to profit take all the position.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
5. Gameplan
\- If you enter below 70, set your stop loss at 68, and watch 70 and 71.5 closely. The price should bounce between 69 and 71.5 as the battle plays out, if 71.5 is breached, move your stop loss to 70. Now you are in guaranteed profit.
\- If you enter later, set your entry near 71.5 after the successful breach, the price should retest that level to validate the fact that the volume profile range is still in play, set your stop loss at 70.
\- If we have breached 71.5 then a reversal is almost inevitable as the shorts on Friday are absolutely trapped and shorts from 78 to 72 are getting nervous, and potentially looking to cover. Now you should be considering exit strategies at 75, 78 and 81.
\- For call buyers i recommend buying some 74C expiring in 2-3 weeks, as most short squeezes complete in 4-10 trading days. You could also consider buy weekly put at 70 when the price tests 71.5 as a hedge for continued breakdown.
\- If all goes well, your 74C could be netting 5 to 10 to 20 times return (depending on the degree of the squeeze).
I hope someone finds this post interesting, good luck boy!
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
6. Position
https://preview.redd.it/ky17kalrt9ie1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=d835b5c577587f493c8805b96c087459db050b31
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Bullish on $RDDT
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[RDDT Holdings \(Sold and Re-entered during some occasional dips\)](https://preview.redd.it/xkkht9oe9vhe1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=513129307cc5aa993ff40c281b375306647e3832)
Listen up! RDDT is my ride-or-die play. This ain’t just another meme stock. This baby is primed to print tendies. Reddit’s got an army of degens fueling engagement 24/7. You’re literally reading this on Reddit right now. Every second you scroll, they’re printing ad revenue off your smooth brain. You’re the product, my guy. If that ain’t bullish, I don’t know what is. Ad revenue is ready to skyrocket, and their data is a goldmine for AI. Monetization is just getting started.
Oh, and here’s another reason: **Sam "Daddy AI" Altman** has been a big whale in RDDT since day one, having a 9% ownership around the IPO. The guy runs OpenAI and knows the future’s all about integrating content with machine learning. He’s not here to take L’s. This is long-term diamond hands material. Altman’s got Reddit tied into ChatGPT and the whole future data ecosystem.
It's 🚀🚀 straight to the moon.
**Disclaimer**: I am currently holding \~140 shares of RDDT, valued at about $31,600 at the time of this post.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm)
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/openai-s-altman-listed-as-major-reddit-shareholder-in-ipo-filing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/openai-s-altman-listed-as-major-reddit-shareholder-in-ipo-filing)
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$LUNR DD
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$LUNR DD
intuitive machines ($LUNR)
market cap: 1.7B
current share price: $18.41
52-week range: 3.15-24.95
summary:
intuitive machines is based in Houston. they are a space exploration company specializing in lunar missions and infrastructure. they design, manufacture, and operate space products and services, aiming to support sustainable human presence on the moon, offering lunar landers, communication systems, and data relay services.
2. recent news & catalysts
NASA contract award: in late 2024, Intuitive Machines secured a NASA contract valued at up to $4.82 billion to provide communication and navigation services for missions extending from earth to beyond the moon. this positions the company as a key player in lunar data transmission.
upcoming IM-2 mission: scheduled for february 26th @7pm est, the IM-2 mission aims to deploy a drill, probe, and rover on the lunar surface. think “drill, baby, drill”! except for water. this follows the successful landing of the Odysseus lander, which was the company's first commercial moon landing.
partnerships: IM is collaborating with Nokia to deploy the first cellular network on the moon during the IM-2 mission. thisll cement LUNRs technological capabilities and market position.
3. financials & valuation
revenue growth: in Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of $73.07 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $45 million.
free cash flow: they have just issued their warrants at the beginning of this month which basically means they’re flush with cash. this will be reported in their next earnings on march 20th.
4. risk
delays!
plus if you really think about it,
5. bull case
cuz we’re goin to the moon mothafuckas!
see also: securing NASA contracts and successful mission milestones position then for future growth
competitive advantages: CURRENTLY THE ONLY COMPANY DOING LUNAR
EXPLORATION!! put it this way, rklb or spacex or whoever makes the rockets, and lunr helps research and prepare for human colonization. strong partnerships with organizations like NASA and Nokia.
nasa and lunr just had a conference this afternoon where lunr said they are also planning on missions to mars in the future.
6.
not financial advice.
my price target for eoy: $40
my current positions attached somewhere
(once these print i will be buying shares with the proceeds)
tldr;
lunr has proven themselves in lunar exploration, backed by major NASA contracts and successful mission milestones. they have huge growth potential, nasa, mission to the moon this month, nokia cellular.
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DD: Why I’m All In $NBIS
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Alright degenerates, let’s talk about NBIS—the AI infrastructure company that Wall Street has been sleeping on but might be gearing up for a major post-earnings rip.
This company spun out of Yandex, but thanks to all the geopolitical drama, a lot of people still don’t know what it actually is. TL;DR: It’s basically Russia’s ex-Google Cloud, now reborn as an independent AI infrastructure company based in the Netherlands. They’re competing in the high-performance AI cloud space alongside CoreWeave, AWS, and Azure—except they’re still valued like some no-name SPAC trash.
Now, let’s get into the bull case.
Why NBIS is Undervalued
1. Earnings & Growth
• Revenue for Q3 2024: $43.3M (up 766% YoY)
• Annualized Run-Rate (ARR): $120M+ as of September 2024
• Guidance for 2025: Expecting $750M-$1B in revenue
• 6x–8x revenue multiple (compared to CoreWeave’s 14.5x)
Wall Street is still pricing NBIS like a small-cap while it’s already scaling revenues like a top AI infrastructure player.
2. $700M in Fresh Funding
• December 2024: Raised $700M in a private placement from Accel, NVIDIA, and Orbis Investments at $21/share
• Well-funded to scale their massive GPU clusters, eliminating AI capex concerns
DeepSeek’s AI bubble pop made investors scared of AI infrastructure capex, but NBIS has $2.2B in cash and doesn’t need to burn another $10B to stay competitive.
3. Goldman Sachs Coverage Incoming?
• Goldman handled their PIPE deal and was expected to initiate coverage in January, but they might be waiting until earnings (Feb 20) or until PIPE investors file
• Once they drop coverage, expect institutional inflows
If Goldman drops a buy rating and earnings are strong, this thing is sending.
4. CoreWeave Valuation Peg
• CoreWeave is now valued at $29B (14.5x revenue multiple)
• NBIS is currently trading at 6-8x revenue, well below CoreWeave
• If we apply a 14.5x multiple, NBIS should be worth $15B+ today
• Current implied valuation? Sub-$9B
At a fair valuation of 14.5x sales, NBIS should be worth $60+ right now.
5. Data Center Expansion = More GPUs
NBIS is investing $1B+ in AI infrastructure across Europe and the US:
• Finland: Expanding to 75MW, housing 60,000 GPUs
• Paris: New GPU cluster featuring NVIDIA H200 Tensor Cores
• Kansas City: Launching new GPU cluster in Q1 2025, expanding to 40MW (~35,000 GPUs)
The Setup: Feb 20 Earnings = The Catalyst
• Goldman coverage likely post-earnings
• Guidance expected to confirm 2025 $750M-$1B revenue
• Market still clueless about their scale
If earnings confirm continued growth and institutional coverage hits, we could see a massive repricing.
Conclusion: This Is a Classic Asymmetric Bet
At 6-8x sales, NBIS is still undervalued for an AI infrastructure company growing 700% YoY. CoreWeave is already valued at 14.5x revenue, and NBIS should be worth at least $60+ today.
Feb 20 earnings + Goldman coverage = massive upside.
This isn’t financial advice, but I just bought a metric ton of shares.
See you at $120.
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🚀 HAS (Hasbro) is About to Move! 🚀
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Disclaimer: I'm just a person on the internet. I have been practicing tracking dark pool and large block orders on OpenBB and Whale Stream and using it to signal moves when the open interest on a stock lines up for it. Also, I got 3 HAS 2/21 $61 call contracts at open, so I am totally biased. Still, this is why I bought them, and the best time to get in is actually soon, not when I bought them. But please take responsibility for your own decisions, and you should double check everything I'm pointing out on your own. I am not a financial advisor.
HAS stock was around $68 in mid-December and has dropped to around $59 as of today. But the recent action strongly suggests a major move is coming—and soon.
The Bullish Signals:
📌 Massive Dark Pool Order
On Feb. 5, a $16 million dark pool trade (270k shares) went through at $58.90 at 3:53 PM. The stock shot up immediately afterward at open. This looks like a buy, and big-money buys often precede major moves. Whale trades like this are usually done after hours, and in the past 1 year period there was not a single other example of a trade $15m or greater during market hours (I checked using the historical search function of Whale Stream), everything else was 4pm or later, and I know 7 minutes doesn't seem like an important difference, but the order gets processed in a completely different way and after hours orders take a lot longer for the stock price to react to. So, someone wanted to buy desperately enough to push it through in the lit market to get their order filled quickly.
📌 Huge Options Bets on Feb. 5
Also on Feb. 5, someone dropped serious money on:
8,000 contracts of 2/21 $60 calls
8,000 contracts of 2/21 $67.50 calls
This is key: This double order pattern (near the money & further OTM) is a known indicator of someone betting big ahead of news.
📌 Feb. 6 (Today) - All That Volume Converted
Today, nearly all of that volume has converted into open interest. The options chain is now extremely bullish (it already looked pretty good before), signaling a big move ahead.
📌 Earnings Are Coming - Feb. 20 (Before Open)
Expectations are low, and HAS has crushed estimates for the last three earnings reports. If history repeats, a strong beat could send this flying.
📌 Technical Setup: Retest $58.90 Before the Move Up
After a large buy, it's common for a stock to pull back as traders take profits.
The $58.90 dark pool level should act as support.
HAS is on its way down for the retest—once it touches, it should rocket back up.
📌 Price Targets?
Expecting a move above $60 soon
Potential for $67.50+ around earnings
📌 Short Interest? Not Huge, But There
It isn't as crazy as an unmentionable stock loved by kitties everywhere (you know which one, and it's at 7.9% short interest), but 3.3% is still notable, and those shorts will have to cover once HAS makes its move, adding more upward pressure.
TL;DR:
🔥 HAS is primed to move up. It will likely retest $58.90 first before taking off. The 2/21 calls suggest someone knows something, and the huge dark pool buy supports this thesis. Earnings on Feb. 20 could be the final catalyst.
🚀 Watch for the $58.90 touch—once it holds, this thing is going UP.
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