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BKSY BlackSky, the Most Interesting Space Stock You Haven't Heard Of
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BlackSky owns a constellation of satellites that produce near real-time high-resolution imagery. Yesterday they successfully put the first of Gen-3 satellites into orbit with the help of Rocket Lab.
[https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-successfully-launches-60th-electron-first-of-multiple-missions-for-blacksky/](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/updates/rocket-lab-successfully-launches-60th-electron-first-of-multiple-missions-for-blacksky/)
The Gen-3 boasts an impressive step up vs Gen-2. Including:
\- 30 min delivery
\- 35 cm resolution
\- performant in low light
https://preview.redd.it/zv45212lteke1.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=72c588781a689debbdda90cade1d25f740b7298a
What impresses me about the company is that have an absolutely ridiculous cadence of contracts announcements. We are talking new contracts week after week after week.
https://preview.redd.it/srlxn6g8weke1.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=396635b4408c866ab77a3571771e993c9db90b14
This has resulted produced a smooth as butter compounding machine that has recently inflected to positive ebidtda.
https://preview.redd.it/49f0wdblweke1.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bba22e008adc454b1a6bc6f9731ede73b71897b
As far as valuation goes, it stacks of pretty damn nice. For example, far better grow and lower ev / sales multiple compared to it's closest peer PL.
https://preview.redd.it/o0wzghh2xeke1.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa27eef224ebe52a3ac67bfde8c6bf4e03384765
Back in the day they had a strategic partnership with PLTR. Not notably sure if it is still ongoing:
[https://www.blacksky.com/blacksky-secures-investment-from-palantir-and-enters-into-multi-year-strategic-partnership-following-successful-pilot-project/](https://www.blacksky.com/blacksky-secures-investment-from-palantir-and-enters-into-multi-year-strategic-partnership-following-successful-pilot-project/)
In sum, I think BKSY occupies a really interesting niche (high res, low latency imagery) that will likely be able to command really nice margins over time. And they have the benefit of a good liquidity and positive growth, so probably don't need to worry about being hammered by financing - as is the typical case with satellite companies - all that much.
I am rolling with a good slug of commons, and some calls for extra juice.
https://preview.redd.it/llssghcjxeke1.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ab5baedaff593425123cb81df6e6a7e161311b
https://preview.redd.it/sgxu3qrmxeke1.png?width=339&format=png&auto=webp&s=75a23bf587474d8ab210950f7d804fb998764bee
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Dropbox $DBX is about to Drop (50k 0dte puts)
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Ok i'll make it short, too much text and graph would make me looks smart wich would be misleading.
My DD is based on the simple fact that analyst estimates for Q4 are way too optimistic. You can see (despite beat) a decline/flatening of the EPS.
Coupled with the rise of expectation (pic 2) it could lead to a miss and a similar situation than Feb 2024.
We also know for a fact that GOOG and MSFT missed expectations for their Cloud sector wich is the main revenue source from dropdox.
Pos : aroubd 50k in puts, see pic 4 and 5
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WMT Earnings and the Impending Selloff(🌈🐻 porn)
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TLDR: WMT paints bleak picture of 2025, market goes down
Alright guys, I’ve got my FD’s locked and loaded. It’s not a huge play, only 3K worth, but they’re out the money and very short expiry. I think WMT is going to tank the market tomorrow. Walmart has historically been the “canary in the coal mine” when it comes to the US economy. Being the largest retailer, it gives a good snapshot into the overall health of the American consumer. Because of this, I think Walmart’s forecast tomorrow will be far bleaker than people are expecting, and the extremely out of touch stock market will get a reality check. Here’s why:
1. Consumers are tapped out. Debt is at an all time high. Delinquencies on credit cards and loans are at an all time high. You may say, “doesn’t this benefit Walmart since they are a discount retailer?” Absolutely, and we’ve seen Walmart killing it for the last year for this reason. Even higher income individuals have turned to Walmart to save money. But at some point, people just don’t have enough to spend on non-essentials. So while Walmart continues to do fairly well, every other business begins to struggle and we start to hear rumblings of the R word.
2. Slowing retail sales. We saw a 1% drop in sales in January when only a 0.2% drop was expected. Thats fairly significant, especially for the most important retailer in the US. Just another piece that says that people aren’t spending nearly as much.
3. Inflation. It’s back, and will get worse with the current administrations policies. You may say “wont that benefit businesses?”. Yes it can, but if no one has any more money to spend, it wont. Remember, during Covid everyone was saving money. We couldn’t spend on experiences like bowling and cruises and what not. Well over the past couple years, we HAVE been spending on experiences. A lot. And not many people have much money left to spend on anything else. So prices rising will mean greater costs for businesses, and they wont see the same spending patterns that they’ve been seeing since 2021.
4. Tariffs. This is a known, but we don’t know what they’re going to say about their forecast regarding tariffs. About 60-70% of Walmart’s goods are imported from China. Walmart accounts for 11% of ALL US imports from China. These tariffs absolutely will affect them in some fashion. Did they increase prices late last year to offset the cost? Are they planning to increase soon? We’ll find out. But one things is for sure: they will be increasing prices to strain an already overstrained consumer.
5. Higher rates for longer. I don’t think we will see a cut this year. We simply cannot. The new administration will fight tooth and nail for it, but i dont see Powell budging. Inflation will continue to rise as more workers are deported and business increase their prices to combat tariffs. Higher rates means M2 will continue to decline, reduced borrowing, and reduced spending.
6. Layoffs. Walmart has recently cut over a thousand jobs. This will probably be good thing for the company simply in terms of less costs, but they are one of many companies(Porsche, Salesforce, Workday, Amazon, Meta…) that have laid off a very significant number of employees recently. Again, good for the particular business, bad for the overall economy.
7. Valuation. Walmart has been on an insane tear all year. It has been absolutely killing earnings, and honestly i think they’ll kill this one. But their guidance will be much softer than analysts are expecting. Walmart’s P/E ratio is 42.88, that multiple will likely have to be reset if guidance is not stellar enough to justify the current stock price.
8. Astrology. For those that like crayons as much as i do, I’ve included a few charts. The main thing i want you to notice is the massive bearish divergences on WMT’s daily AND weekly charts, as well as SPY and QQQ(which looks like the weaker of the two). Volume on the indices has been non-existent as well. By market close today, 24 million shares of SPY had been traded(more were traded after market). I could only find 3 instances of the volume being that low since 2010. And it’s been like that for a few days.
All the signs of an impending recession are there, but the market has ignored everything so far. I’m betting 3K in FD’s that the market starts taking those warnings seriously tomorrow and into Friday. It is very likely I will lose this money, and that’s ok, it’s just for fun. But I’ll be very happy if I was able to put the pieces together and see this before it happens. If you made it this far, I appreciate you reading.
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BOIL too far too fast. Pseudoscience and confirmation bias on why it will go down.
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BOIL which is a leveraged natural gas futures ETF has gone up faster than my dick when I first saw my best friends sister in a thong. To quantify how hard my dick was in the past 5 days BOIL is up 42%. Some quick pseudoscience on what has happened since 2024 when BOIL has been up 30% in a 5 days span:
1. Jan 2 → Jan 9, 2024 (≈ +41.0%)
• Next 5-day return (Jan 10–Jan 17): ≈ –16.4%
2. May 15 → May 22, 2024 (≈ +30.3%)
• Next 5-day return (May 23–May 30): ≈ –27.9%
3. Jun 4 → Jun 11, 2024 (≈ +40.2%)
• Next 5-day return (Jun 12–Jun 18): ≈ –13.9%
4. Feb 11 → Feb 19, 2025 (≈ +42%)
• Tomorrow.
To add to that at 10:30 am tomorrow the Natty Gas EIA report will come out with an expectation of a draw of -193 bcf for the week. That’s a huge expectation, classic sell the news event after a big run up.
All of this cold weather priced in, asteroid hitting earth in 2032 freezing the earth priced in, AI increase for natty gas you guessed it priced in. Time to buy KOLD the BOIL inverse.
My position 3,871 shares of KOLD. Holding for next 5 days or so.
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Is FTAI a Goldmine or Fraud? A Special Situation With Hedge Fund Action
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Alright, strap in and keep your seatbacks in the upright position because we’re about to take off into the best jet engine showdown since someone tried to fit an F-35 into a Spirit Airlines budget.
Now, I bought FTAI with the highly sophisticated investing strategy of “stock go down much, now stock go up” via a method I like to call Financial Darwinism. Thank you, past self, for your wisdom. I found out in a comment thread on a different post that apparently there are hedge funds brawling this one out which IMHO means we might get much hotter volatility:
🚨 **In the blue corner:** Crossroads Capital, betting big that FTAI is a misunderstood gem with *huge* upside.
🔥 **In the red corner:** Muddy Waters, yelling “accounting fraud!” like a finance bro who just discovered forensic auditing.
The stock’s been on a rollercoaster. Got hard dunked by a short report dove 50% and now on the mend. Here's the diligence you didn't know you needed to either wake up rich or staring into your brokerage account like the black box of a Boeing.
# Company Info & Key Developments
FTAI mooned from $17 to \~$175 between 2022 and 2025 because it shifted from aircraft leasing to high-margin engine services. In Jan 2025, Muddy Waters Research released a short report, alleging FTAI inflates earnings by misclassifying one-time engine sales as recurring revenue and artificially boosts EBITDA margins.
Timeline:
* 2022-2024: FTAI transitions from leasing to engine maintenance; stock climbs $17 → $175.
* Jan 15, 2025: Muddy Waters releases a short report, claiming 80% of EBITDA comes from asset sales.
* Jan 18, 2025: FTAI’s Audit Committee launches an internal review and warns of potential 10-K delay.
* Jan 21, 2025: Stock crashes to \~$85, down nearly 50% from its peak.
* Late Jan 2025: Crossroads Capital defends FTAI, calling the selloff an overreaction.
* Early Feb 2025: FTAI signals 10-K will likely be filed on time; stock stabilizes around $100-$120.
* Upcoming: Audit results and 10-K expected soon—this will dictate the stock’s next move.
# The Players: Two Hedge Funds, Opposing Theses
**Muddy Waters (Bear Case – Short)**
Carson Block’s Muddy Waters Research is an activist short fund with a track record of exposing corporate misrepresentation.
Their Claim:
* FTAI misclassifies whole engine sales as maintenance revenue to exaggerate aftermarket growth.
* Up to 80% of EBITDA comes from asset sales, not true recurring services.
* Accounting maneuvers inflate margins, making the stock dangerously overvalued.
Muddy Waters expects the audit to confirm these concerns, sending the stock much lower.
**Crossroads Capital (Bull Case – Long)**
Ryan O’Connor’s Crossroads Capital is a deep-value hedge fund specializing in misunderstood businesses.
Their Thesis:
* FTAI’s accounting is complex but not fraudulent—Muddy Waters is twisting the narrative.
* A shift to clearer accounting in 2025 will remove confusion and boost transparency.
* CFM56 engine demand is surging, and FTAI is well-positioned.
* The stock’s collapse was an overreaction, creating a massive buying opportunity.
Crossroads sees FTAI re-rating to $150+ once the audit clears.
# Options Market: I Have No Idea What I'm Talking About
Implied Volatility Is Extreme
* IV is at 90-100%, meaning traders expect huge swings
* Heavy bets on both upside and downside
* March and April options have the highest open interest
* Put/call ratio is 0.77 so market leans slightly bullish
* Large positions in both calls and puts
Unusual Institutional Moves
* $3.1M in notional value traded in March $90 calls
* Hundreds of March $100 puts bought in large sweeps (institutional hedging?)
* High OI in calls
[Long the stock at $116.99](https://preview.redd.it/froubr60s5ke1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aba036f0b46fce3fd2ab06bc8bc90054edfeadd6)
**TLDR:** The market clearly expects a massive event but is split on direction. Even if it's fraud this fraud is management's full time job and they're apparently good at it.
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$SENS - The Sleeper Stock Set to Disrupt the $20B CGM Market with a Life-Changing 365-Day Sensor
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Hi Everyone,
Senseonics Holdings ($SENS), has been on my radar for quite some time, and I finally believe it's time for this company to take off. I first got into SENS back in the beginning of 2021, when it ran from pennies to dollars. This run was caused by hype around their Continuous Glucose Monitor products (CGM) that last 180 days, and 365 days, the important one being their CGM that lasts 365 days, called Eversense. Here is a brief explanation of a CGM:
Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGMs) are medical devices designed to track blood glucose levels in real time throughout the day and night. They are primarily used by people with diabetes to help manage their condition more effectively, reducing the need for frequent fingerstick tests and providing a more comprehensive view of glucose trends.
How CGMs Work:
1. A small sensor is inserted under the skin (usually on the arm or abdomen) to measure glucose levels in interstitial fluid.
2. The sensor connects to a transmitter, which sends glucose data to a smartphone, receiver, or insulin pump.
3. Users can see their glucose readings at any time, track trends, and receive alerts for high or low blood sugar levels.
Dexcom, one of the leading CGM providers in diabetes cares CGM sensor only lasts up to 10 days, and transmitter only lasts up to 90 days. A CGM that lasts a full year is a complete game changer for diabetic patients. This product being available, means they no longer have to prick themselves, or get their sensors implanted every few months.
The problem, back in 2021, was that both the 180 day and 365 day CGMs were pre-FDA approval. Unfortunately, myself, and other investors, underestimated the time it would take this company to both file and be approved for selling of the 365 day CGM. This caused a loss of interest and investors to pull-out as they realized that it would take years for this product to materialize. However, that approval came late last year, and after 3 years of remaining sidelined and watching the company develop, I have decided it is time to reinvest in $SENS as their 365-day Eversense CGM is fully on the market in 2025.
**The following reasons are why I believe it is time for SENS to expand and take its place as the leader of CGM systems for diabetes management, overthrowing Dexcom.**
\# 1 - The Longest-Lasting CGM on the Market
Senseonics 365-Day CGM, Eversense, is the first CGM with a full-year lifespan, significantly reducing the burden of frequent sensor replacements.
The Eversense CGM offers a Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD) of 8.5%, making it among the most accurate CGMs available.
\#2 - Expanding Insurance Coverage - A Key Growth Driver
Insurance adoption has been a major factor in CGM market expansion. While initially limited, coverage for Eversense has been steadily improving, including:
* Medicare Coverage: In February 2022, Medicare expanded coverage to include Eversense for eligible users.
* Private Insurers: Many large U.S. insurers, including Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, and Aetna, have begun covering Eversense, improving affordability and adoption.
* State Medicaid Programs: Multiple Medicaid programs have included Eversense in their CGM coverage, increasing accessibility.
As CGMs become standard for diabetes management, more insurers are likely to cover long-term CGMs like Eversense, which could significantly boost adoption.
\#3 - European Market Expansion & 365-Day CGM Approval
Senseonics has submitted an application for European regulatory approval for its 365-day Eversense sensor, which could give it a significant first-mover advantage in the long-term CGM segment.
* Europe has less restrictive reimbursement policies than the U.S., potentially allowing for faster adoption.
* If approved, this would make Eversense the only full-year CGM on the market, setting it apart from competitors.
* Success in Europe would provide critical data and a commercialization roadmap for future U.S. approval.
\#4 - Search for an Insulin Pump Partner – Key to the Closed-Loop System Market
CGMs are essential for automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which integrate CGMs with insulin pumps to create closed-loop “artificial pancreas” systems.
* Dexcom and Abbott already have partnerships with major insulin pump manufacturers like Tandem Diabetes Care ($TNDM) and Insulet ($PODD).
* Senseonics has expressed interest in partnering with an insulin pump manufacturer, which would open significant revenue streams and allow Eversense to integrate into the growing AID market.
* A partnership could increase CGM adoption as patients prefer seamless integration between their glucose monitoring and insulin delivery systems.
\#5 - Expanding Diabetes Market
* Global Diabetes Population: Over 537 million people worldwide have diabetes, projected to reach 783 million by 2045.
* CGM Market Expansion: Currently valued at over $20 billion, the CGM market is growing at a 10-12% CAGR, fueled by:
* Rising diabetes prevalence.
* Increased adoption of CGMs as the standard of care.
* Expanding insurance reimbursement for CGM devices.
* The growing trend of automated insulin delivery (AID) systems, which require CGMs for glucose data.
**Catalysts to Make Senseonics Take Off In The Near Future:**
1. Earnings Report on March 3rd - 2025 being the first full-year that Eversense is approved, Senseonics is expected to raise revenue guidance for 2025, and have grown revenue year over year from 2023 to 2024
2. Europe Approval - Senseonics filed for approval to sell Eversense in Europe, this month, and should receive decision on the next two months. Getting approved, and having access to this market, would be very bullish.
3. Cancellation of Reverse Split - With Senseonics recent price action, they have been able to cancel the need of a reverse split. Confirmation of this during the earnings call, will ensure investors that the future is bright for Senseonics.
4. Pump Partner Announcement - The anticipation for Senseonics to announce a pump partner has been big amongst investors, and is thought to be imminent with Eversenses 365 day approval last year.
After being too early, I sat and watched this stock for 3 full-years, and now believe it is time for Senseonics to make the right moves, and take off.
Senseonics is positioned for significant growth as it expands insurance coverage, seeks European regulatory approval for its 365-day CGM, and explores insulin pump partnerships. While adoption hurdles and financial risks remain, the company’s first-mover advantage in long-term CGMs could allow it to carve out a meaningful share of the growing CGM market.
Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/y7e12ui331ke1.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdfd75574545c4b53025c0cb80fcefcbe989189c
https://preview.redd.it/vxlnt9q431ke1.png?width=541&format=png&auto=webp&s=45b7651a456cfb764e60bbbe879f3e7c6ca0848d
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You're not getting any inheritance. [DD]
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Fries in the bag, chud.
You're not getting the inheritance you thought you were. Nana's bagholding life, and she's not going to let the suits take it from her without a fight.
**PART 1: The Setup**
https://preview.redd.it/97p7mlj7oxje1.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f31f08a9ec7a038a13bff2fd9eb4be8dca05255e
Healthcare spending as a percentage of GDP is booming, and has no plans on stopping any time soon. The primary culprit is an aging population and long life expectancy, layered on a for-profit medical structure in the U.S.
https://preview.redd.it/i76cmpyeoxje1.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=899d4f8f877b3b7d529eca3ef12b49ec0cc927c3
Over time, the proportion of the elderly U.S. population is projected to skyrocket, especially among the oldest cohorts.
[U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. \(2020\)](https://preview.redd.it/9yrd2d9koxje1.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6796deeb368b85147b7981fe9104fb051e8b7f8)
And that inheritance your parents and grandparents have been bragging about for decades is getting dumped into long term care at a 10% CAGR.
https://preview.redd.it/iot8vl7uoxje1.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=990a8b60a91e93aeb5acdf76fe010c5c04758815
Fortunately, this is a trend even the most PLTR full-ported regard can understand.
People get old, old people are sick, sick people pay for healthcare, and in particular, old people pay for long term care (LTC).
https://preview.redd.it/edolo102pxje1.png?width=1216&format=png&auto=webp&s=355e6331c2c2b2f4ab085f63f07c8235ff4595f9
So, how do you play it?
**PART 2: The Play**
Surprisingly, even with a braindead growth thesis, leaders in long term care are trading below conservative estimates of intrinsic value. Let's focus on some leaders: $PNTG, $NHC, $ADUS, $ENSG, $HCA
Of course, the meat of the thesis is future growth. All we know for sure about these companies is their track record. However, buying companies at low multiples to their historic operating incomes is never a bad idea, especially if there is no reason to believe they would suddenly lose that income stream.
Pennant Group Inc ($PNTG) is in Home Health and Hospice Services, and Senior Living Services.
Trading at 900M Marketcap, you're getting 13% CAGR on 35M in operating income. 25X operating income growing at 13% without any sign of stopping is already compelling.
https://preview.redd.it/1sepjddcqxje1.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=703dccd68f8aea1f8c76197e8bfd897169d3d339
National HealthCare Corporation ($NHC) is in skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. The valuation is even more compelling.
For 1.6B Marketcap, you're getting 6% CAGR on 20X operating income.
https://preview.redd.it/1umqjgakqxje1.png?width=1182&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7faa43a1ea1b4998c7fd1272a1f1a8599c1975a
But the best bit is your balance sheet. The company is trading at 1.6X P/B
https://preview.redd.it/w1grfqurqxje1.png?width=505&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d115278be69d4eb32865bc4a9265ed2eb486ede
Backing out the book value and goodwill, and then applying a conservative discount to book value at 700M. Subtract this from the 1.6B market cap, and for 900M market cap minus book value, you're getting \~80M in operating income with at least 6% growth. Pretty compelling.
Addus Homecare ($ADUS) looks great as well.
https://preview.redd.it/tvaewaafrxje1.png?width=1191&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb63ab66587a6e3e417a2a60f072f9519d45de86
At 2B Marketcap, you're paying 20X operating income for 10% CAGR. Already compelling, but just like $NHC, you're also getting a massive margin of safety with a thicc book value.
https://preview.redd.it/39pmepmkrxje1.png?width=495&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b1a5f58574e368109f82a38a42953ee14205466
The Ensign Group ($ENSG) is the largest of these LTC providers. At 7.3B Marketcap, you're getting the company for a little over 20X operating income.
https://preview.redd.it/qyiwa9forxje1.png?width=1192&format=png&auto=webp&s=33076da03d71ae103f88c18b676b0267df082c3c
You might expect their growth to be lower being the largest player, but they have the highest CAGR of them all at 13%. Combined with a larger moat, better margins than the other players, it's incredible that this has such a reasonable multiple to income.
Finally, I want to throw in HCA Healthcare ($HCA), as it's a Michael Burry long and tangent to the thesis at reasonable valuation. They own and operate hospitals. Little less sexy as I think hospitals have riskier revenue streams, but the company has a ridiculous moat in hospital operations as the largest player by a mile. They're even bigger than the VA.
https://preview.redd.it/g6l1m67esxje1.png?width=1201&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd9bd983f28ef788634a67195092b1a2c50dfb78
78B Market cap, 7.8X operating income. No brainer valuation here, and it helps widen the net of exposure to the thesis.
TLDR: Nana’s inheritance = my tendies. Boomers are bagholding life, and LTC stocks are going to benefit. $PNTG $NHC $ADUS $ENSG $HCA for reasonably valued plays.
My positions:
https://preview.redd.it/9r5voxb2txje1.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=a14cdd18208d1ec3c3f0948c05c30f1ee4153807
https://preview.redd.it/8yvds7c2txje1.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=11890e21e54ecab685f6b6801a598b7515d900c9
https://preview.redd.it/81wbnxb2txje1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=35b1113978815f329ceb96e37b08221e6e1487a6
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$PARA YOLO - Undervalued Giant with Massive Upside Potential
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**Paramount Global ($PARA) is an undervalued giant hiding in plain sight.** The misunderstood fundamentals and exaggerated expectation for the death of traditional media has fueled a shockingly unique opportunity on a company that is fundamentally sound and poised for future growth due to its incredibly strong brands. Despite its negative reputation due to the Shari Redstone mismanagement of M&A and the difficulty that traditional media companies have been facing, $PARA is a massively undervalued media powerhouse with legendary brands in CBS, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, MTV, Paramount Pictures, etc. This company is a media giant trading at fire sale prices. With a laughably low P/S ratio (\~0.24) and EV/EBITDA (\~5x), PARA is far cheaper than its competitors despite looking poised for a recovery, especially with the looming Skydance merger.
**Fundamentals:**
The fundamentals are honestly simple to me. Paramount has been struggling over the last few years to escape the difficulties that traditional media companies have been facing. They have been ineffective at creating enough revenue and operational efficiency/ focus to make any meaningful impact in their debt since about 2018 when their debt initially exploded upwards. Because of these factors, Wall Street and Retail have both soured on Paramount.
Paramount+ has been relatively successful, but the investment has not justified the returns thus far, however this aspect of their business has been steadily improving. In their last quarterly report, Paramount+ added 3.5M new subscribers, showing that the platform is still bringing in new customers. Beyond this, Paramount has exceptionally strong brands that are not going to die, no matter what comes of the future of media.
To further embolden the case for the intrinsic value hidden within Paramount, here are some of Paramount's Notable Brands: All of CBS, BET, Comedy Central, MTV, Nickelodeon, Showtime, and quite a few more, with all associated brand IP (think SpongeBob, South Park, Avatar, The Daily Show, etc.). Point being, **these are brands that people interact with CONSTANTLY. Hours and hours of attention is spent on these brands each day.** And despite network cable’s viewership “decreasing”, CBS is still the #1 channel and rakes in about 4.8ish million viewers per day. Attention is the most valuable commodity in our world. Monetization of the traditional media platforms has been challenging, but with new leadership and the huge investment being made, **I am betting that they see incredible opportunity for growth with this company.**
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that there are quite a few things that have been stacked against this stock for a long time, most notably the situation with 70% of controlling shares being held by Shari Redstone, who managed the company abysmally and ruined a potentially lucrative buyout for shareholders, making further M&A negotiations chaotic and unpredictable. However, she agreed to sell her control of the company in July of 2024 to Skydance, who will now be controlling the company with their current CEO, David Ellison (the son of Larry Ellison). **Shari being gone and competent leadership coming into the scene is a huge, huge deal. This merger has created a very unique situation for $PARA, which I believe to be a win-win for investors.**
Honestly, though, all of this is drivel. **What matters to me with the Paramount fundamentals is this**:
*Paramount's Market Cap:* $8B flat
*Paramount's TTM Revenue:* $28.9B
*Price to Book Ratio:* .43
*Price to Sales Ratio:* .24 (compare this to Netflix's PS ratio of 11.76, or even $WBD's of .64)
*EV / EBITDA:* \~5x (compare with Netflix of 17x, Disney \~10x)
The debt situation I have seen so much negative sentiment about online appears to be utterly overblown and I honestly don't see how people think this company is financially dying. Let me sum it up as follows:
*Debt to equity:* .94 (fine)
*Debt to assets:* .34 (good)
*Quick ratio:* 1.10
*Net margin:* \-.06 (trending better, hope this flips positive again soon, but I don't see reason for concern)
QoQ Total and Net Debt has been trending DOWN since Q2 2020
Free cash flow has been stably positive since Q3 of 2023, currently at $762M TTM
*Cash on hand:* $2.44B
Skydance merger will immediately inject $1.5B in capital once closed
There are deep value stocks, then there are…….. you know the rest.
**Technicals:**
Getting into the chart it seems evident to me that price has been pushed down about as far as it can be without something fundamentally changing. I like to buy my stocks at lows and sell them at highs (don’t you?). As you look through my TA, think about whether this price seems like a low or a high to you.
There are 3 timeframes that I will focus on; the monthly, weekly, and daily.
Please note that **current price is $11.30** at the time of writing this post
*Monthly*
https://preview.redd.it/yb9zabv1jxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=26f05db27a086c13828f255c0689bd27baeeef07
Macro Point of Control: $10.66 (price is above)
Macro Fibonacci Golden Pocket: $10.44-$11.68 (price is within and has held as strong support)
RSI: Bounced off bear zone and has been steadily (though slowly) rising since Feb 2024
MACD: Bullish divergence printed Oct 2023, has been steadily green and rising since Feb 2024, signal cross up in Jan 2024
Lastly, volume has been seeing some pretty significant influxes throughout this downtrend it’s been in since 2021 and volume has been consistently higher during this 4-year trend than it’s been at really any point since the 2008/2009 market shenanigans. This may indicate accumulation, especially so since 2024.
*Weekly*
https://preview.redd.it/r8rhzvd4jxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=475549c3ca26b39b7f689e96e32796ae2050af68
The consolidation in the golden pocket is really beautiful. The fact that you had a significant bounce from the .65 to the .5 *exactly* confirms the validity of using fibs on this chart and solidifies this golden pocket range as very strong support.
The weekly Bollinger Bands have squeezed to their 3rd tightest width in the history of this stock, and the narrowest they've been since January of 2018. Generally speaking, tight BBs lead to explosive price breakouts.
MACD and RSI have been printing bullish divergence for 3 years without much, if any, positive price action following. In my opinion this *will* change. Reversal in trend *is* imminent. There is a looming catalyst for this to reverse when the company reports earnings on Feb 26.
https://preview.redd.it/0tv16j253yje1.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ef26c06db90cd9260b5f2553edfc3083c08b635
The Weekly ADX is actually beautiful. This is one of the lowest ADX values I've ever seen on a weekly chart for a company as big as $PARA, and it's starting to curl up. Simultaneously DMI+ is going up while DMI- is going down. This looks similar to the ADX setups $TSLA had in October of 2012 before a 535% run, $UPST had in June of 2024 before a 350% run (this one looks the most structurally similar to $PARA in many ways), $COST had in June of 2024 before a 100%+ run, $BABA in Apr 2024 before an 82% run, $INTC in June of 2017 before an 73% run, and $DIS before a 56% run. What I can't find is similar ADX setups that didn't have significant breakouts up or down.
https://preview.redd.it/ppnb1c0fjxje1.png?width=1430&format=png&auto=webp&s=96a4a872f8458bf897d8c5ca09e9899dd67dbf57
And how about a Triple Bottom on the weekly RSI just to further solidify my position of being on the precipice of a bullish breakout. It's not perfect, but chart patterns rarely are, and its close enough to be very intriguing.
*Daily*
https://preview.redd.it/w0b9k1h63yje1.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac18eef8caa65fbfc7c372e9b433b0d49cfa6a11
There are two chart patterns that are completing/ have completed. One is a falling wedge; the other is a pennant. The falling wedge has a price target of approximately $25. The pennant has a price target of approximately $5.26. Do you think it’s more likely that this company halves in value again, down to a $4b market cap, or *returns to a more reasonable valuation* of \~ $20b market cap?
There are also numerous gaps to the upside on the chart that I expect to be filled once a bullish trend reappears. Gaps are from \~$19-$23, \~$34.50-$36, and \~$85-$91.25.
https://preview.redd.it/xgawv1y73yje1.png?width=1316&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7bb02f718152b2fa47168a6ba1c20bef64b68b7
The last thing that I want to highlight for is that the 50 and 200 daily moving averages are currently in a $0.20 range. There **will** be a golden cross very, very soon if price holds above $11. Algorithmic traders will rush in when this happens.
To summarize how bullish the technicals are:
1. Consolidating in a macro golden pocket above the point of control
2. Bullish divergence on the monthly MACD
3. 9 touches of bullish divergence on the weekly RSI & MACD
4. Weekly ADX is completely cracked out and looks poised for a **massive** run
5. Weekly RSI has a triple bottom with a very bullish outlook
6. Falling wedge pattern and gaps on the chart point towards a run deep into the $20 range
7. Daily golden cross is imminent if price holds above $11
**Some fun stuff:**
Short interest is 11% and the Days to Cover is \~13. While this isn't a huge amount in comparison to some previous meme stonks, this is quite significant for a stock the size of $PARA, and the size of this position is exemplified by the days to cover. When I compared this to Paramount’s competitors, I found that it is 3x-10x the short position of any other company in the sector. Additionally, I pulled the options flow data for the last 9 months to analyze the outstanding bearish premium. What I've found is what I believe to be a ticking time bomb. There is approximately $39M in net bearish put premium that is not closed, and $4M in net bearish call premium. This means that (in my opinion based on my analysis) there is approximately **$43M (22.46M shares worth of contract, or approximately 45% of free float) in net bearish premium yet to be closed**, that, if correct, will dump gasoline on the fire of a run if $PARA begins to break out and these positions are forced to close. These are trades that I believe to be held predominantly by Hedge Funds and institutions, and I believe that they are overexposed on this trade due to the belief that $15 is a price cap until merger. If price reverses and goes beyond the $15 buyout price, a mass unwinding of these positions (both the short positions AND the bearish contracts) will have to take place as the perceived price "ceiling" could be shattered.
*Final point:* \*securing tin foil hat and preparing for berating\* I believe that the options data I analyzed has uncovered a significant arbitrage play that is in the works. This Skydance-Paramount merger arbitrage trade is a ticking time bomb. Someone has been shorting PARA near $15 and hedging with bearish put options, betting that the deal price caps upside. But if PARA breaks and holds above $15, these trades fall apart, causing the holder to potentially cover their position, put holders to unwind, and institutions to scramble to reposition. This could trigger a cascade of buying pressure, breaking the artificial price ceiling and leading to a massive price surge. If the deal is renegotiated or collapses as a result of this price action, PARA could explode MUCH higher.
**Tldr;**
Paramount Global ($PARA) is an absurdly undervalued media giant that Wall Street has pushed down as far as it can, setting up what I believe to be a uniquely explosive opportunity. Despite owning powerhouse brands like CBS, Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central, and Paramount Pictures, $PARA trades at a laughably low valuation—its P/S ratio is just 0.24, its EV/EBITDA is \~5x, and it’s generating $28.9B in revenue on an $8B market cap. Meanwhile, short interest sits around 10% (\~12+ days to cover), and I’ve identified $43M in outstanding net bearish premium (45% of free float exposed) still open, which I believe will act as gasoline on the fire if price begins to break out. Adding to the intrigue, the Skydance merger deal has created a forced price ceiling at $15, which institutions have been using to execute merger arbitrage trades—if that ceiling is broken, it could cause mass unwinding of short positions and a re-rating of the stock. Technicals are screaming reversal, with bullish divergence on multiple timeframes, the ADX setup mirroring historic breakout runs ($TSLA, $UPST, $DIS), and an imminent Golden Cross about to happen on the daily chart. If retail sentiment shifts and $PARA starts moving, this could be a perfect storm of undervaluation, squeeze potential, and institutional mispositioning, leading to a rapid and violent price correction to the upside. Everyone is sleeping on $PARA. It's time to wake up.
**Position:**
https://preview.redd.it/iej5r9gr2yje1.png?width=767&format=png&auto=webp&s=a90e58c30122ae12ab6ce4d222eb75559e4fd6c1
3,000 shares @ $11.13 cost basis
200 1/26 12.5Cs @ $.67 cost basis
*\*\*\*Disclaimer\*\*\**
*I am writing this due diligence so that other people can learn about a trade that I think may be one of my biggest trades of 2025. Every once in a while, an opportunity on a trade comes across my desk that looks so good I get genuinely excited about it. The OG meme stonk at $10 last year, mcrovst at $.20, $DOCS at $25 (these auto-post deletions based on tickers are annoying af btw) were the other 3 for me last year. I've had success with these big bets of mine in the past year, but past performance does not always indicate future success. Do not invest in something that you have not personally researched, and do not invest unless you have identified clear entry, stop losses, and exit points that work for YOU.This is not financial advice; I am merely sharing my personal excitement about a trade I am making.*
\*edit\* - I am aware of the compression causing potato quality in some of the pictures and will fix when I get a minute
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The Nebius Boys Are Trying to Speedrun the Entire AI Cloud Industry—Will It Work? ($NBIS)
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Nebius Group is the ultimate chip-on-the-shoulder company—literally. Here’s a group of ex-Yandex billionaires, sitting in Amsterdam, staring at Larry Page, Jeff Bezos, and Satya Nadella’s mega yachts, foaming at the mouth, thinking: *we built Google, Uber, and AWS for Russia, and we got stuck in Putin’s nightmare economy while these guys turned into gods.*
So now, they’re speedrunning the AI cloud industry, trying to go from zero to hyperscaler before AWS and Microsoft stomp them out. And Nvidia is helping fund it.
This company has a real shot at being Europe's AI cloud leader. They have world-class engineers, billions in cash, and might even have a cost advantage over AWS and Azure. But at $45+ per share, it’s priced like they’re already winning—and this is still an underdog story. The AI cloud market is a bloodbath. So this is either going to be a home run or an implosion.
# The AI Cloud Market: Welcome to the Thunderdome
This industry is a $260 billion warzone with three daddy figures—AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud that are \~70% of the market.
These guys print more money in a quarter than Nebius might generate in a decade. They have:
* Infinite cash (Nebius has $2B in cash; Microsoft just spent $10B on CoreWeave *alone*).
* Economies of scale (AWS probably gets better GPU pricing from Nvidia than Nebius ever will).
* Enterprise lock-in (Why switch to Nebius when AWS is integrated directly into your liver and kidneys?).
Then there’s CoreWeave, Lambda Labs, and every other AI cloud startup trying to steal GPU market share. These guys are expanding, backed by real American VCs who are smarter than me, and not run by bitter Russians on a redemption arc.
If Nebius wants to win, they need to execute perfectly and scale faster than anyone expects.
# How Could This Play Out?
**Base Case (Most Likely)**
* Revenue grows to \~$1B in 2025 (in line with guidance).
* EBITDA is still negative due to high expansion costs.
* Stock price remains volatile but stabilizes around $35-$50 as execution risks become clearer.
**Bull Case (They Actually Win)**
* Nebius dominates AI cloud in Europe, taking market share from AWS.
* They hit $5-6B in revenue by 2030, reaching Azure-like margins.
* Stock goes to $100+, Nvidia buys a bigger stake, and Volozh finally gets a James Bond villain mega yacht.
**Bear Case (They Get Crushed)**
* AWS and Azure drop prices and build up trust in the EU, Nvidia pulls the rug, and Nebius is stuck paying top dollar for GPUs while customers go elsewhere.
* They burn through cash, have to dilute heavily, and stock collapses to $10-$15.
* Arkady Volozh sells GPUs on Telegram to stay afloat.
At $45+ per share, the stock is already priced for the Base Case five years out. The risk-reward setup here is not great for new buyers.
# How The Boys From Moscow Win
**"AI-Native Cloud" – Supposedly Can Compete with Hyperscalers**
* Nebius isn’t just another cloud company—it’s a full-stack AI-native platform.
* Their cloud software is optimized for AI, which means lower costs and higher efficiency for AI workloads.
* AWS and Azure are generalists—Nebius can win by being the best AI cloud for AI companies.
**20-25% Cheaper Than AWS and Azure**
* This is the whole bet—that Nebius can undercut the big guys on price.
* If they can maintain this cost advantage, they can steal AI-native customers from hyperscalers.
* Nvidia’s backing gets them GPUs, but they still have to build and scale fast to maintain this lead.
**Nvidia’s Blessing (For Now)**
* Nvidia invested in Nebius, which means priority GPU access.
* If Nebius gets first dibs on Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell chips, it could attract AI startups looking for top-tier hardware.
* But let’s be clear—Nvidia is not loyal. The second they find a better opportunity, they’ll cut and run (see: SoundHound).
**Europe Needs an AI Cloud Leader**
* Europe is a regulatory nightmare, and US tech giants don’t want to deal with it. More data sovereignty laws (which the EU *loves)* could make Nebius the AI cloud default for EU businesses.
* Nebius is positioning itself as the “European AI cloud”, investing $1B+ in EU data centers.
* If they become the default AI cloud in Europe, this stock could explode higher.
# How The Boys From Moscow Fail
**Capital Intensity – This Industry Will Eat Them Alive**
* AI cloud is one of the most expensive businesses on Earth.
* AWS, Microsoft, and Google have an infinite budget.
* Nebius has $2B in cash, but they’ll burn through it fast. They will have to raise more money.
**Nvidia Is Just Paying Itself**
* Nvidia’s investment isn’t a vote of confidence—it’s a revenue stream.
* Nebius needs GPUs, Nvidia needs to sell them—it’s a match made in financial engineering.
* If Nvidia sees better opportunities elsewhere, they’ll ditch Nebius like they did SoundHound.
**Execution Risk – No Room for Error**
* Expanding a cloud business is ridiculously hard.
* If Nebius mismanages scaling, pricing, or infrastructure, they’re dead.
* They have to grow exponentially while competing against trillion-dollar giants.
**Geopolitical Luggage**
* They may be Dutch on paper, but their leadership team is still Russian.
* Some big U.S. clients might hesitate to trust them, no matter how “Western” they claim to be.
* If EU regulators suddenly turn hostile, Nebius could be screwed.
# Final Verdict: If You’re Buying at $45+, You Better Believe in Magic
Nebius is not cheap. At $45, it’s already pricing in hypergrowth, flawless execution, and Nvidia’s continued blessing.
**The Big Question: Do You Trust These Guys to Pull It Off?**
* If you think Volozh and his team are mad geniuses who will stop at nothing to get rich, buy it.
* If you think AWS, Azure, and CoreWeave will crush them like a bug, stay away.
At $25-$30 per share, Nebius would be a high-risk, high-reward AI bet. At $45+ per share, it’s degenerate gambling.
They have potential, but so did a thousand other cloud startups before them. If you’re buying at these levels, you better believe in destiny, vengeance, and the raw power of resentment-fueled innovation.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
[I’m in at $33.62.](https://preview.redd.it/uui1cjseexje1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=452a1d9367ed6983b7acdc049b13c61559a3cc48)
I'm long Nebius and I put together the above analysis.
**TLDR:** My analysis indicates Nebius Group is priced to take off as hyperscaler. But this is going to be a capital-intensive bloodbath with Russians vs. trillion-dollar American megacaps who print more cash in a quarter than Nebius will see in five years. **At $45+ per share, you have to be clinically insane to gamble on this before earnings.** On the bright side, this management team might not get the best GPU pricing, but they probably do have an endless supply of cheap blow to enjoy while daydreaming about Larry Ellison-like villain arcs.
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$DBX: Dropbox Took out a FAT LOAN to pump itself and avoid a pile of debt repayment in 2026. Will it work?
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**TL/DR:🌈🐻 Case (my personal prediction):
Stock stays below $38.25.
They pay the full $695.8M 2026 convertible note in cash instead of converting the debt to stock.
The $2 Billion loan for buybacks ends up being a leveraged bag hold, and 2026 refinancing happens under terrible conditions.
Short sellers feast on a liquidity crunch **
Alright, let’s see if I can get two of these 🌈🐻 wins in a row. I’m not normally a bear, but it’s hard to ignore this stuff. I nailed the $SXT failure last week and bagged 400% gains in a day after everyone said I was regarded (I kinda was joking but it worked) so maybe you degenerates need to listen up. Let’s talk about Dropbox ($DBX). You know, that account you signed up for in 2012 and then forgot about until last week when you remembered you had nudes of your ex, and needed to knock one out because your wife’s boyfriend won’t let you join in on the threesome at his house? Yeah, that company is still somehow worth $10 Billion dollars. I don’t have the kind of balls, patience, and money to buy short shares, but I would if I could. Who honestly looks at dropbox and thinks that in 2 years they’ll be in a better position?
Aside from growth problems, they just took out a fat $2Bil loan from Blackstone for share buybacks, adding pressure to the ticking time bomb of debt coming due in 2026. And if the stock doesn’t pump soon, it is ripe to be targeted by shorties. They are obviously hoping they can pamp this thing over $38 to force conversion of their near term debt obligations into stock. I think that the powers at be already noticed this last year, and took the opportunity to smash the stock far away from the conversion price. Down 23% in a day for losing 50k users and weak guidance? Seems harsh unless someone wants them to go BK.
Pumping things up without growth is not new for them. The only difference is now they are borrowing to keep the buyback ride going. Between 2023 and 2024 they bought $1 billion in shares, but they don't have the cash to do that anymore. They also did big layoffs in 2023 and 2024, but they cant just keep firing everyone to meet shareholder expectations.
Here’s the breakdown:
🧨 The Blackstone Loan: Instant Liquidity, Long-Term Pain?
$1B secured term loan from Blackstone (with an option for $1B more).
They didn’t use this to grow the business—they used it to buy back stock ($1.2B repurchase program).
Unlike their 0% interest convertible notes from 2021, this new loan actually has interest (~7%), meaning Dropbox is now paying $70M in new annual debt expenses.
⏳ The Real Danger: 2026 Convertible Notes
Back in 2021, Dropbox issued $695.8M in convertible notes at $38.25 conversion price.
Guess what? The stock has NEVER hit $38.25 since then.
**If the stock stays below that by 2026, these notes don’t convert, and Dropbox has to pay the full $695.8M in cash.**
Oh yeah, and in 2028, another $693.3M comes due at $35.35.
✔ If stock pumps above $38.25, problem solved—notes convert, no cash payout.
❌ If stock stays near where it is , they need to pay $695.8M out of pocket or refinance in much worse conditions in every way. There's zero chance they can refinance this at a better rate than 0%. Stock takes a big hit in this case.
So What Happens Next?
✅ Best Case:
They suddenly figure out how to grow again (lol). More realistically, buybacks succeed in pushing DBX past $38, forcing debt conversion and avoiding a liquidity crunch. Stock is already up ~9% since December, likely from this effort. Must hit guidance - they fired 20% of the company to make sure of it.
❌ Worst Case:
No meaningful growth. Layoffs in engineering & sales suggest they aren’t innovating. The AI pivot flopped, and “Dash” didn’t save them.
Severance cost them ~$100M, adding pressure.
If buybacks fail to push DBX past $38, they waste cash and still have to deal with refinancing.
2026 refinancing likely means higher interest rates, tanking valuation further.
Position:10x 20 June 25p, 10x 20 June 30p
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ANF is going to fly 🚀🚀🚀
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Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is a gold mine right now. I'll try to keep this brief, because we're all lazy.
\[Post writing update: It was not short. TLDR; ANF good. why down? idk? Me bought \~60k $ worth. Me likey ANF growth. Me likey money.\]
\[Edit: I'm more than happy with ANF hitting 120 or even 130, I think it could pull up to 140 though.\]
ANF has been fluctuating between the low 120s and high 140s for a while now, and I've essentially been scalping this.
https://preview.redd.it/vuhl7ycifvje1.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=0db4a79a7491955d27a01eaaca50b85448eb3aed
This is only a sample of what I've been doing so far
https://preview.redd.it/612ffxwrfvje1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=3045d5194a861f21bb48093ad2669c8da9dfc94b
Personally, I see no real reason why this stock isnt moving higher up right now. 112 is really low, and it should be mid 130s.
Here is a comparison with it's peers
https://preview.redd.it/cbp3ui63gvje1.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=a56d80903b6b7faa86167beed8bc4c88f37075b9
https://preview.redd.it/d7s1ap87gvje1.png?width=1223&format=png&auto=webp&s=5651c15384be07f06cd0e308aa6c589d61a9b969
It's the only one that has been down. For why? No idea.
Its revenue growth is almost 20% YOY, a LOT higher than the average across the industry
https://preview.redd.it/6f11d9zbgvje1.png?width=1221&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c9d4f3dee62cbe0bac4c71f6cbb7ae6909d2dfd
Okay sure it has good revenue, but what about it's profits? how much does it earn?
64% gross profit margins? Come on those are lovely numbers
https://preview.redd.it/szv69vmfgvje1.png?width=1210&format=png&auto=webp&s=6809ff713718c55c36d3fcdd3765119e69dad718
Sure, but let's talk about the downside.
I'm not a fan of how 98% of the shares are owned by outsiders. Insiders having low holdings is a bad sign
https://preview.redd.it/orberfingvje1.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=306921fadf79a59cada9047c5119428a17d18a22
But also, the insiders, CEO, seems a lil old fashioned, I mean, no social media in 2025? Come on.
https://preview.redd.it/swbj0idzgvje1.png?width=1194&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a1bbbe4522f1dbd27988e267710e0e2654ccc0f
Okay what about other risk metrics
https://preview.redd.it/a6f9oxw1hvje1.png?width=1196&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7fb15c755c0be5e5bdb13a2aa015c837ce85abc
Altman Z Score is what I like. It means nothing here as it's the score given to "likeliness to go bankrupt", which none of these companies will. But, I still like the fact that it has better strength than the other companies, especially in comparison to GAP.
https://preview.redd.it/37svh60bhvje1.png?width=671&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c7e37e8a074a07217ff482ef41301c26ab170a0
So, why is it down? I have no idea. My assumption is that, with all the tariff news, people think that clothing products in general will have lower sales as its a luxury. But, Eh, Abercrombie people like to buy Abercrombie, even if it means they gotta use money budgeted for rent, right? It has quite a few UP revisions for EPS reports, and I dont know when the 1 DOWN revision came about, but I assume it's the recent news saying that "they expect lower growth", aka instead of 20, maybe like 12? still better than the others?
https://preview.redd.it/j19uxisqhvje1.png?width=1197&format=png&auto=webp&s=c88944a3a8b719e2f77cc0f8d2c42647a732c480
Quick overview of their financials, Profit of 3 BILLION ttm, and 20% growth. That's banger numbers not gonna lie
https://preview.redd.it/uih0o3h0ivje1.png?width=1207&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4bfffc31459de17e5085567ee73b79d73196856
And you know what, ANF is trading at a **PE of 11.6.** Warren Buffet said <15 is good, me likey.
I also do like that their book value is getting better (Essentially they are paying off their debts?)
https://preview.redd.it/s8olnzlxivje1.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea630fe6ff9350d1ba6e02624c88a25f20ba4b22
I also do like the dumb logic that, companies these days have been running up days PRIOR to the earnings, such as this
https://preview.redd.it/okle8iuajvje1.png?width=366&format=png&auto=webp&s=09dd0115965b1403e6fd439ac52918f9f6d19dd2
Hence, I'm already in.
My positions
58k ish in Stocks
https://preview.redd.it/a0egea9ijvje1.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=75c7a3ea0bb55f6e806994ed0e636bbf38412d96
2ishk in Options (i'm not relying on this, this essentially throwaway money. In fact, my expiration is before earnings, Earnings is on March 5)
https://preview.redd.it/7yuor98sjvje1.png?width=1419&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe676b29ead5635a94242891c5575676fbe92a54
But those options could print yk.
DISCLAIMER: THIS AINT FINANCIAL ADVICE, INVEST (gamble) AT YOUR OWN RISK. This better print, I already got enough haters on this.
(ANF, if this prints, I'll buy \~500$ worth from your stores, thanks <3 )
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$278k+ in LUNR. Here’s how to play
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Obviously do what you want. Not financial advice and whatever.
I posted DD a few weeks back about buying the dip on this stock. Back then it was 22 ish and I predicted it would have some potential dips before going higher. Well those dips happened and I hope you scooped up some longs or shares when it was in the 17s and 18s. If you didn’t, then guess what, you’re not too late yet because it closed last Friday in the 19s and ready to rip over the next two month back into the 20s and through the 30s.
Why?
Because it’s launch season again. Last year they landed on the moon and in the two week run up to the landing, it ripped as news coverage started on the launch, getting your every day Joe Schmo talking about it. Well you’re on WSB, so you might as well jump on it before the rest of the country finds out that we’re about to land on the moon again.
Launch window opens the 26th. That means the run up is about to start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it open up tomorrow already in the 20s, but don’t fear: any entrance in the 20s is a good entrance.
Last year the stock crashed a few days after launch. Why? It wasn’t a pump and dump. It’s cause the lander tipped over after landing. Is it going to tip over again? Highly unlikely. They spent the last year tripling and quadrupling up on their engineering to make sure that this time it’ll nail its position as the de facto lunar landing system of any US moon missions for the next few decades.
I wouldn’t sell before launch. I wouldn’t sell after landing either. There might be some profit taking dips, but the stock is just going to keep going up as their successes materialize.
Even AFTER it lands and literally moons, you’ve got earnings happening in late march a few weeks later, where they’ll break down their successes to the press and announce their plans moving forward as space missions expand. Expect that earnings report to be massive as well and at the very least, hold your plays for the run up to that earnings before making your decision to exit right before earnings or hold for another hit.
You want a short term play? This is it.
You want a long term play? This is it.
Scared about tariffs and economic conditions like inflation and rate cuts? LUNR is its own thing. NASAs doing this no matter what happens to the economy because the new space race is here. Go google articles about China’s recent moon efforts.
I’m not saying that this is your last chance to get on. But this is your last chance at getting on before it becomes way more expensive. Get your ticket stamped and hold on for the ride for the next 8 weeks.
PTs:
25 by launch day
30 when it lands
35 a week after it lands
40 after smashing earnings
50 end of year
100 when it lands with a human inside by the end of the decade
Positions:
12,000x shares
90x calls (18c 3/21 which I’ll roll for 3/28 after the landing)
$278,850 total and more than half my account.
Add it to your watchlist and watch it make history (for your bank account).
|
BlackBerry: A Legacy Stock That’s Going To Get Re-Rated And Run
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BlackBerry is not a dead brand. It’s not a failed smartphone company. It’s not just another stock that spikes when retail traders pile in and then disappears.
It is a deeply entrenched, high-margin infrastructure software business that has gone completely unnoticed in the AI-driven rally. While every software stock remotely connected to AI, IoT, or automation trades at sky-high valuations, BlackBerry—which powers 255M+ vehicles and counting—still trades like a company with no future.
The reality is different. BlackBerry dominates real-time, safety-critical automotive systems with its QNX operating system, and it’s now layering on a SaaS-like business with IVY, a cloud-based vehicle data platform co-developed with AWS.
IVY allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize vehicle sensor data in real time. This is exactly the kind of AI-adjacent, cloud-powered software business that should be trading at 10x revenue, yet the market assigns it zero value.
That will not last much longer.
* QNX is embedded in 255M+ vehicles and continues to expand at 20M+ per year.
* IVY has secured early adopters, including Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng, and Mitsubishi Electric.
* The cybersecurity division, generating $350M–$365M annually, is now stabilized and profitable.
Every other infrastructure software business with this kind of positioning has already been re-rated higher—this one just hasn’t caught up yet.
# The Trade: BlackBerry Gets Re-Rated in the Next 2–3 Quarters—Possibly as Soon as Earnings April 2nd
QNX is growing, IVY is ramping up, and cybersecurity has stabilized, yet the stock price still reflects none of this.
* If BlackBerry provides strong IVY guidance next earnings, the re-rating could start immediately.
* Even without IVY, QNX’s backlog alone justifies a higher multiple.
* Cybersecurity, previously a drag on performance, is now quietly generating cash.
This setup provides a margin of safety with significant upside.
Even if IVY takes time to scale, QNX alone is worth more than what the market is assigning to BlackBerry today.
If the market re-rates BlackBerry as an infrastructure software business, it trades at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters. That does not include IVY guidance or it's potential impact on price, which could drive the stock much higher.
# QNX: The Operating System Running Inside 255M+ Vehicles
QNX is not an infotainment OS—it’s the real-time, safety-critical software running inside automotive systems.
* Installed in 255M+ vehicles, growing by 20M+ per year
* $815M backlog (+27% YoY) ensures forward revenue visibility
* Trusted by nearly every major automaker, including BMW, Toyota, Ford, GM, Volkswagen, Honda, Stellantis, Bosch, Continental, Magna, and Denso
QNX is embedded in ADAS, digital instrument clusters, telematics, and secure gateways—systems where failure is not an option. Automakers don’t replace this kind of software lightly, which is why QNX enjoys high retention and a long revenue tail.
As vehicles become more software-driven, QNX’s role is only growing.
* Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) require real-time OS solutions that QNX already dominates
* QNX Hypervisor enables multiple systems to run securely on a single chip, increasing its value per vehicle
* EVs and autonomous systems require low-latency, high-reliability computing—exactly what QNX provides
If QNX were valued like a strategic AI-driven infrastructure software provider, it would not be trading at 5x revenue.
A more appropriate 8–10x multiple puts QNX’s valuation at $2.5B–$3.5B alone.
Right now, the market is treating QNX like a legacy asset when it’s actually growing and gaining importance.
# IVY: The Unpriced SaaS Upside That Could Change the Entire Valuation
BlackBerry IVY is a co-developed vehicle data platform with AWS that allows automakers to process, analyze, and monetize in-car data.
* Foxconn’s MIH EV platform, Dongfeng Motors, and Mitsubishi Electric have already signed on
* IVY enables software-driven revenue streams for automakers (subscriptions, upgrades, real-time analytics)
* BlackBerry captures recurring revenue from these services
Right now, the market assigns IVY zero value because revenue has not yet scaled.
But automakers are moving toward Tesla-style in-car software features, usage-based pricing, and over-the-air upgrades.
If IVY becomes the data layer that enables this shift, BlackBerry’s valuation moves toward SaaS multiples instead of just embedded software.
And we will know a lot more by next earnings.
# Cybersecurity: No Longer a Drag, Now a Cash Generator
For years, BlackBerry’s cybersecurity business was bloated and uncompetitive.
* Then management sold off Cylance, cut unnecessary costs, and focused on high-trust, high-retention government and enterprise contracts.
* Cybersecurity now generates $350M–$365M annually with a $280M ARR & Margins have improved to 65%
* Trusted by NATO, Fortune 500s, and government agencies
This is not a high-growth business, but it is a stable, profitable enterprise software business that the market is ignoring.
Even at a conservative 2–4x revenue multiple, cybersecurity alone could be worth $700M–$1.2B.
Right now, the market is treating this business as worthless, which makes no sense.
# Market Mispricing: How Big Is the Upside?
BlackBerry is currently trading at \~5x sales, significantly below comparable infrastructure software businesses.
If the market re-rates BlackBerry as a legitimate infrastructure software provider, the stock is an easy double from here.
A reasonable valuation based on its components:
* QNX at 8–10x revenue → $2.5B–$3.5B
* Cybersecurity at 2–4x revenue → $700M–$1.2B
* IVY is completely unpriced—if it scales, it could be worth billions
**This pushes BlackBerry’s fair value toward $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters on the low end, $20+ on the high end if IVY scales.**
If IVY guidance is strong next earnings, that re-rating could start immediately.
# Final Thought: The Market Is About to Wake Up
This is not a meme stock revival.
It is an AI-adjacent, embedded infrastructure software business that has somehow escaped the AI stock rally.
That will not last much longer.
* QNX should not be trading like a no-growth legacy product
* IVY is being assigned zero value, despite real partnerships and revenue potential
* Cybersecurity is now a stable asset, not a liability
This stock is one strong IVY earnings guide away from a re-rating to juicy SAAS multiples. BlackBerry is almost certainly about to be priced like a great software company instead of a clown show. When that happens, it’s not trading anywhere near $5.69 anymore.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
https://preview.redd.it/yckbhcggxpje1.jpg?width=585&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b6a5ec29945604efa284881d1f8b1b0fcdc0ce53
I’ve put together the above analysis of BlackBerry. I work on these memos for my own personal investments and want to start sharing them. Thought you degens might like them.
I'm going to be posting diligence on reddit regularly, but only on r/wallstreetbets for positions in my personal book. Follow me on directly if you want to read more.
**TLDR:** My analysis indicates BlackBerry is a high-margin software business that the market doesn't believe could operate a coffee cart at an airport. Their IOT businesses includes the dominant OS for automotive software and an emerging SaaS platform co-developed with AWS both of which should command high multiples. The stock trades at a massive discount to comparable AI-adjacent infrastructure software businesses. In a base case, the stock should trade at $12–$18 in the next 2–3 quarters and if IOT guidance is strong next earnings it can pop to 20+.
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This sector you've never touched is a 10-bagger. [DD]
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I want to focus a sector that receives no love: Mining.
Trading at decade-lows with little investor interest, mining stocks today are like tech stocks in 2001. I'm going to show you how they have all the elements of a 10-bagger play, and how you should take advantage of the upcoming bull run
**PART 1: Qualities of a 10-Bagger**
Without overcomplicating things, a 10-bagger stock or industry can be summarized with these elements:
1. Left For Dead Prices - Prices that don't reflect the baked in value or potential growth of the company, especially compared to historic averages, since prices are typically mean-reverting.
2. Little Investor Participation - Trades that aren't crowded out by investors, muting potential future gains.
3. Ridiculous Potential - Massive margins of safety and explosive potential upside that lead to companies consistently growing their top line.
**PART 2: A Tale of Two Sectors**
https://preview.redd.it/a5aslgqpajje1.jpg?width=1341&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5045ac70d14bd4b629332bac9984ad0c845b1829
You've been a regard for investing in mining over the past \~30 years. The index rose over \~5x, and you're flat. Any active manager in Mining stocks has either been fired or full-ported into Apple at this point.
It's even more stark when you compare to tech. Over the past 30 years, the tech sector delivered \~5,000% return, dwarfing the broader market’s \~1,874%.
Investors have crowded the trade, leading to a situation where you nearly can't avoid exposure to the richly valued tech names:
https://preview.redd.it/47riv3obbjje1.jpg?width=1389&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e31b8099d02c792cbb737a2f9ee17374f99ef163
Safe to say miners aren't included in any meaningful allocation in today's indexes.
But do they have the potential to 10x from here?
**PART 3: Left for Dead Prices**
The most compelling case for a 10-bagger is being cheap. Buying Apple at 10-15 PE in the 2010's is retrospectively a no-brainer. It gives you an incredible margin of safety if you're buying growth for value prices.
Miners are cyclical companies deeply exposed to the price of the ores they mine. Whether it's copper, silver, gold, or rare metals, miners generally scale with the price of their underlying commodity.
https://preview.redd.it/670ubnytljje1.png?width=969&format=png&auto=webp&s=685e17313d2d2d33bed2d39c3733183eced31cba
For gold miners, this hasn't been the case. Despite gold roaring to highs around $2900 an ounce, the average gold miner is down over the past 20 years.
Many of these miners produce gold for less then $1000 an ounce and have been reinvesting their income into future production. Let's take a look under the hood at B2Gold $BTG
|B2Gold|Metrics|
|:-|:-|
|Total Assets|4,788,737K|
|Total Liabilities|1,599,657K|
|Book Value|\~3.2B|
|Market Cap|3.3B|
|TTM Operating Income|600Mln|
|5yr Avg Operating Income|672Mln|
|P/B|\~1X|
|P/OI|\~5X|
Wow. You're getting the company at book value today, and at a 20% income yield. It seems like it's deep value, so what are the growth prospects?
|B2Gold Company Expectations|Gold Ounces|
|:-|:-|
|2024|800K|
|2025|1Mln|
|2026|1.2Mln|
So what does this look like as far as their sales expectations? Let's see the price of gold:
https://preview.redd.it/00gmixjgnjje1.png?width=1083&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2b3030a72eb4b41b4938d400eeac334db5b28fa
Compared to the company's reported all-in-sustaining-cost of producing gold at $1,200 an ounce, the company generates about \~$1700 an ounce in cash at today's prices. Who said you needed to be a tech stock to get 50%+ margins?
So, let's take a look at their 2026 projected gold ounces produced vs. some potential prices of gold. Assuming 1.2Mln ounces produced in 2026, here is their operating income:
|Cost of Production / Gold Price|$2000|$2500|$3000|$4000|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|$1200\*|$960Mln|$1560Mln|$2160Mln|**$3360Mln**|
|$1400|$720Mln|$1320Mln|$1920Mln|$3120Mln|
|$1600|**$480Mln**|$1080Mln|$1680Mln|$2880Mln|
The company reports an AISC of $1200, but I've extrapolated this to 1,400 and 1,600 to account for worst case scenarios. Today's gold price is near $3000, but I've shown more bearish moves to $2000 an ounce to show worst case scenarios.
If you price in a 30% increase in costs and a 30% decline in gold price, the company is still trading at only **\~6X** their projected operating income.
So, an incredible margin of safety in the bear case scenario. What about a bull case scenario where costs remain the same but gold increases another 30% from here in 2026? The company will earn **3.3B** in operating income, which is the entire market capitalization. **You are potentially buying this company for 1 Forward P/E.**
The vast majority of junior gold miners have very similar fundamentals and future growth prospects. The entire industry is priced as if gold is falling +50% from here.
Similar miners are in the same boat. You don't have to look at gold. Let's take mega miner BHP Group $BHP for a ride. You're getting the company today for 5X 5 year average operating income as well, at 2X book value. Of course upside is more limited with a larger company, but the mineral diversification in BHP means that you benefit from price increases over many minerals.
**PART 4: Little Investor Participation**
Tell me this, when's the last time you saw someone shilling mining stocks on WSB? When's the last time a mining stock IPO'd on robinhood, or your friend showed you his mining tendies? There's basically zero investor interest left in the sector. It's tarnished by ESG, political risk, and just not being "sexy".
If you were an active manager following mining over the past 20 years, you lost your job. Why would anyone keep the regard that failed to beat the market for 20+ years?
https://preview.redd.it/2hl2u5drpjje1.png?width=1040&format=png&auto=webp&s=859518764be92fb4e04cfe5721935682f6d11d2b
The mining index has plummeted in comparison to its historic market participation. The pessimism is a clear setup for a multi-bagger contrarian play.
**PART 5: Ridiculous Potential**
I've already outlined an example miner for you to see the kinds of valuations present in the sector, but the Junior Miner Index ($GDXJ) is filled to the brim with similar companies. When you look at a mining industry's 20 year history on google, the chart looks like shit. But have they ever outperformed?
Mining stocks have generally been counter-cyclical: When markets fizzle out, they find their time to boom.
They surged in the Depression, mooned in the 70s inflation crisis:
https://preview.redd.it/zxc6j2nhqjje1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c32453a5afd3e8390247fd643c5191303f98714
https://preview.redd.it/c4hgv5ckqjje1.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=b43b557c4d3cf05889c6f1a13c96c4ec86e939cd
Specifically, they are counter-cyclical with Tech, and boomed during the last tech cycle wash in 2000:
https://preview.redd.it/5berkqxrqjje1.png?width=1034&format=png&auto=webp&s=b067f3c82ff2fd8fa3d4ff135feec946d5e9f3fa
And of course, the prices of the ores they're pulling out of the ground are expected to rise as well. Inflation is ripping the price of gold and looks to stop no time soon.
Steel and iron used for building is ramping up with urbanization and economic prosperity, whereas rare earth metals are finding their space in batteries, EVs, and semiconductors.
Copper is the backbone of electrification, and every single year the world breaks the previous year's record for humans living in urban environments. Global prosperity is the true secular bull market, and metals & mining are deeply connected to global growth in general.
Nearly all metals are also hedged to the growth of emerging markets, giving any US investors some necessary global exposure.
https://preview.redd.it/yyn79l0xujje1.png?width=1129&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a5416495af3dbc9ade3ff9a80a107c34b26eb99
**PART 6: How to Play It**
Here's my takes on the best opportunities in mining:
|Opportunity|Sector|Justification|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Higher Opportunity|Individual small-cap miners ($BTG) \[Gold, Coal, Iron, Copper, ETC\]|Diving into individual names helps you avoid exposure to low quality companies in the indexes. Small caps have the best potential to scale earnings parabolically.|
||Junior Miner Index ($GDXJ)|General exposure to smallcap gold|
||Individual large-cap miners ($BHP)|While not as sensitive to price movements to the upside, large-caps are less sensitive to downside movements in the underlying commodities, and you can avoid some junk by diving into individual names|
||Metals & Mining ETFs ($PICK, $COPX)|Exposure beyond gold is great, as many of these miners across different metals have similar valuations and vary in their industry verticals.|
||Gold Miner ETF ($GDX)|General exposure to largecap gold|
|Lower Opportunity|Rare Earth Metals ($REMX)|While I think the same thesis is in tact for rare earth metal miners, their valuations trade at a substantial premium to the more "classical" miners of gold, silver, coal, iron, copper, nickel etc.|
My plays:
I'm long the following:
https://preview.redd.it/jf9rsqmn0kje1.png?width=395&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a545df7a3687358bb1ec7739aa7adaa855ec34f
https://preview.redd.it/jvotmymn0kje1.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=a67361da344478392b3d29d7d772a921158c23af
https://preview.redd.it/i1g267nn0kje1.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=db76144393fe70db03eed48e64219d606ef975ce
https://preview.redd.it/guzharmn0kje1.png?width=383&format=png&auto=webp&s=6589f635566ae9a976248ae3040f67b69c971d9f
https://preview.redd.it/tjpt8nmn0kje1.png?width=388&format=png&auto=webp&s=f877b83eb62dc762d75ab82169e86640c9d0489a
https://preview.redd.it/i99qsnmn0kje1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ca153a9b85e4a477c193bf1a75f8286620179e2
https://preview.redd.it/77jsapmn0kje1.png?width=389&format=png&auto=webp&s=6767ebd76f704fdbf264ae3d3d0e4c59e816ba30
https://preview.redd.it/j72ppsmn0kje1.png?width=395&format=png&auto=webp&s=19ef0a371e8aacb273252a340a64f13e849e2ed1
Reposting with positions.
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Steel DD: Trump Tariff Time
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**Summary**
Before we knew Trump was getting elected we were looking at a reversion to the mean from the once in a lifetime bull market of 2021-2023. We also had China starting to dump insane amounts of steel globally. In 2024, China’s steel exports climbed to 110.72 million metric tons, reflecting a 22.7% rise from the prior year. Now we have across the board tariffs which include downstream products. These are a lot more bullish than the tariffs in 2018. GDP is growing and manufacturing PMI’S are improving. Of note the ISM Manufacturing PMI turned positive for the first time in nearly two years. The Chicago PMI is still pretty crappy though. Overall things are looking quite bullish for the USA. If China can take off and stop exporting so much steel this would obviously be bullish globally. China steel exports are the #1 risk factor.
**Price Targets**
https://preview.redd.it/9fm0w6yzpjje1.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=aba555d688056a7e9b29db7e81e02db0fc992179
**Selected Company Commentary**
**X**
The just finished a massive CAPEX cycle. Big River 2 is now starting to produce and the plant would probably cost $10 billion to build today. I believe X is a buy even as a standalone at this level. Huge plant in Slovakia could benefit if the war ends. In terms of the potential Nippon or other acquisition here are my thoughts:
1. Valuation Range 37-65+
2. Option A: Nippon buys $55
3. Option B: Nippon / CLF NUE JV $55. Nippon putting together bold/unprecedented proposal.
4. Option C: NUE / CLF Buy: Upper 30s, pushed to $45
5. Option D: Liquidation $65+ over $55
6. Option E: Standalone. To $49+ (Weeklies might die)
**STLD**
The best run steel company globally in my opinion. They are sort of a growth company disguised as a cyclical stock I saw somebody write. Strong downstream and internal pull on crude production. I love the move into Aluminum funded by FCF. Starting up in 2026 and hopefully STLD can do to aluminum what NUE and STLD did to steel. First new aluminum plant in the USA in 40 years.
**NUE**
Largest and most diversified steel company in North America. I see more upside in STLD.
**CMC**
Great company. Some presence in Poland. Acquisition target IMO.
**TX**
10.3% Yield
$1.6 billion net cash
Always dirt cheap, someday that may change. Consistently profitable as well. 80% owned by a billionaire and non-USA which keeps the multiple down.
**CLF**
* I had this targeted for $5 before tariffs
* This stock is a huge raw bet on steel prices and trading vehicle
* Management is about getting big at any and all costs. This could work or backfire massively.
* Could end up with a sweetheart deal getting part of X
* Between getting sued by Mesabi Trust and U.S. Steel up possibly $3 billion+ in legal liability
**MT**
The stock everybody loves to hate. I believe they have been doing an excellent job. They should have about $1.9 billion in through-cycle EBITDA coming the next few years. Very low valuation. The largest steel company globally outside of China. Book value per share $64. Since the end of 2020 they have bought back about ⅓ of their shares and the stock has gone nowhere.
Global Snapshot:
https://preview.redd.it/oa0s0d52qjje1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9f44bfdbdbce8ce6025effd280c4510a1716a43
Technically it looks extremely bullish to me on the long run monthly chart:
https://preview.redd.it/rd5cgjf4qjje1.png?width=2706&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4c0312a33b1739c11b12a6c9ca5ad33f59c541f
**Main Steel Risk Factors**
Bullish
* Trump/Global Protectionism + Economic Boom
* Ukraine War Ends/ Ukraine Steel Production Drops 8 million tons. MT, X, CMC
* Multi Nation Coated Steel Trade Case. 1/24 WITHIN A FEW MONTHS
* 2.3% GDP Growth in Q4: Can this cause a restocking?.
* Oligopoly/market power for big 4 and CLF (esp with auto), Industry discipline. CLF X idle furnaces etc.
* Restocking? GDP Growth + China could cause it. Trump win can cause it?
* Scrap prices are rising
* Market caps of steel stocks are tiny relative to Mag7 etc. Any rotation could be explosive.
Bearish
* The steel market was pretty weak before the Tariffs hit.
* China record steel exports: China trending up? 99% of China plants losing money, no stimulus for real estate? Impacts MT, TX more.
* 10 Year Treasury Yields / Inflation
* Broader market meltdown / recession
* Losing construction workers due to deportations
* Trade war repercussions
**Positions**
1. Long X
2. Long STLD
3. Long CMC
4. Long TX
5. Long MT
https://preview.redd.it/16xa5z17qjje1.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=c113f0613142c3c505a38c692f1ed86baf57b0d8
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BB double down,
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BB has completed the turn around. It's no longer a meme craze. A profitable company with a good balance sheet and growth. Dominant player in Automotive industry. What's your realistic price target for this company and why I should sell?
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$GENI: Genius Sports, it’s literally in the name
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$GENI: The No-Brainer Play Before Earnings
Alright, I’m going to make this simple. Genius Sports ($GENI) is about to take off, and if you’re not paying attention, you’re going to be that guy watching from the sidelines. This stock is setting up technically, has a major catalyst on deck (earnings), and is riding industry momentum that’s only getting stronger. Let’s get into it.
1. Earnings Are Coming (March 4) – And They Look Good
We’re two weeks out from $GENI’s Q4 2024 earnings report, and the numbers already look solid:
• Revenue: Expected to hit $511M for 2024, up 24% YoY.
• EBITDA: Projected at $86M, a 61% increase.
• Cash Flow: Sitting on $135M in cash, up from $69M last quarter. That’s a huge boost in liquidity.
The company is clearly hitting its stride, and a strong earnings beat could send this stock moving fast.
2. The Chart Is Screaming “Breakout”
Look at the chart. Seriously, look at it.
• $10 is the final boss – Once this breaks, there’s nothing stopping this from running to $15.50, and after that, the next major resistance is around $22.
• Volume spike – The last breakout attempt had big volume behind it. Buyers are here.
• Momentum building – RSI is in the sweet spot, MACD is turning bullish, and we’re coiling under resistance. It’s only a matter of time.
This is the kind of setup you want to see before a big catalyst.
3. DraftKings Just Gave Us the Green Light
DraftKings ($DKNG) reported earnings, and they crushed it:
• Revenue up 13% YoY to $1.39B.
• Upping 2025 guidance to $6.3B-$6.6B.
• Most important: They’re investing heavily in live/in-game betting, which is exactly where $GENI makes its money.
Here’s why that matters:
• Genius Sports earns 3x more on in-game bets vs. pre-game bets.
• The Super Bowl saw record live betting this year.
• Every sportsbook is going all-in on live betting, and they need $GENI’s real-time data to make it happen.
DraftKings is basically telling us that the sector is booming, and Genius Sports is positioned to print money because of it.
4. The Play? It’s Simple.
• I’m holding 300+ $10 calls for April and July.
• Earnings are March 4 – expect volatility, but the setup is too good to ignore.
If this breaks $10 with volume, we’re looking at $15-$16 with soooo much room to run after.
TL;DR: $GENI is about to break out, earnings look strong, DraftKings just confirmed live betting (aka $GENI’s biggest money-maker) is growing like crazy, and we’re two weeks away from a major catalyst. The setup is there. Don’t miss out on probably the easiest play of the next few weeks, and possibly the year.
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The next potential candidate for S&P inclusion - Coin
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The Next s&p 500 inclusion - Coinbase
No one is talking about this so let’s discuss. Coin had a good run up day before earning reports. They had a good earning but stock tanked.
The next S&P 500 inclusion will happen on 21st March. We have seen what happens when they rebalance and add stocks like palantir..
I’m convinced coinbase will be the next candidate to be included next month. Posting here for a sanity check and blind spot. Tell me why it should not be included.
Criteria for Inclusion in the S&P 500
A company must meet the following criteria to be selected by the Index Committee and be included in the S&P 500 index:
The company should be from the U.S. (fulfilled)
Its market cap must be at least $20.5 billion. Coin have more than 50 billion market cap (fulfilled)
Its shares must be highly liquid. Coin have 10-20 million shares in average trading volume
At least 10% of its outstanding shares must be available for public trading. Coinbase public float is around 20-30% (fulfilled)
It must report positive earnings in the most recent quarter.
The sum of its earnings in the previous four quarters must be positive. (Fulfilled)
Reposting with disclosure as previous post was taken down. ( I have 400 shares in coinbase with average cost basis of around $232) which is almost 40% of my portfolio.
Let’s discuss!
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The Future of Battery Technology is Here! - Enovix
|
Hey everyone,
I've been diving deep into the potential of Enovix lately, and I think this company might be gearing up to redefine the battery space as we know it. Here are a few reasons why I’m excited. I have 2000 share outside of this option play.
1. **Cutting-Edge 3D Battery Architecture:** Enovix’s innovative design isn’t just another incremental improvement. Their 3D architecture could pave the way for batteries with significantly higher energy densities, promising longer runtimes and more efficient energy storage.
2. **Market Disruption Potential:** With the growing demand for advanced energy storage—from electric vehicles to portable devices—their technology positions them to capture a big slice of a rapidly expanding market. Dont forget AI demand in battery tech yet.
3. **Strong Intellectual Property Portfolio:** Robust patents and a clear R&D roadmap suggest that Enovix is not only ahead in innovation but also prepared to defend its technological edge in a competitive landscape.
4. **Strategic Partnerships and Expanding Ecosystem:** Recent collaborations and moves towards commercial-scale production hint at an exciting future where Enovix could become a key player in the next generation of batteries.
5. **Growing Industry Buzz:** As more industry insiders take note, the chatter around Enovix isn’t just hype—it’s grounded in real technological promise and a vision that aligns with the future needs of energy storage.
https://preview.redd.it/bx7f6szwe6je1.png?width=1074&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a06c41e1dd4dac7b639b381054c8b847deca813
This isn’t financial advice—always do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before jumping in.
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$350k Bet on a Foreign Airline - The Bull Case for Air Canada
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Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/ynqr0i80j5je1.png?width=2540&format=png&auto=webp&s=abc925b48b084ed2d9cc89a34dadc488add3faa6
Air Canada (AC.TO) released earnings yesterday. Revenue increased more than anticipated, and EPS was just as with projections. They were able to perform in-line with the bullish guidance that they'd provided earlier in the year, and announced a buyback of 10% of shares later this year. This company recently resolved a strike threat from its pilots, and are more profitable than they were a year ago.
Presently, Air Canada has a valuation of $6.3B. Based on market cap and region, its nearest comparable is American Airlines, which has a PE ratio of 13.5. Onex (the parent company of WestJet, which is Canada's other main airline) has a PE ratio of 7.9. Air Canada's current PE ratio is 2.6.
Given the positive guidance, the deep discount compared to its peers, and the relatively weak Canadian dollar right now, buying this seems like a no brainer. Even if the PE ratio were to climb to 6.5 (a 50% discount in comparison to its peers), this would correspond with a share price of $44.
That would be a 150% pump from the current share price of $17.75.
There's an opportunity here.
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Herbalife ($HLF) is going to bounce back HARD after EARNINGS
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What's up snitches, I bet Herbalife ($HLF) is not the name you were expecting to see today when you opened up WSB.
**MISSION BRIEF**
For those of you that don't know Herbalife, it's a MLM pyramid scheme company that makes their affiliates sell Wendy's dumpster tier quality protein shakes to neighborhood moms. To makes things worse, the company is down \~90% from their ATH of \~$60 in 2021 to a mere \~$5.78 today based on quarter after quarter of growth decline. Luckily I can still post this DD on WSB as its just over the $500MM market cap requirement.
https://preview.redd.it/p2nojs4vg4je1.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=d68cb393c7c63aac3915056c36f0beeb2922e998
And we're going to go LONG. Yes, LONG just like my pe...riodic losses in the market.
If you need some motivation for this trade or want to explore this HLF multiverse, go watch the 'Betting on Zero' documentary where you can see Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn battle it out over this stock. For the regarded ones among us, we will be roleplaying Carl Icahn for this one.
https://preview.redd.it/3wa3q7boi4je1.png?width=1163&format=png&auto=webp&s=16dd4ed18b97ef9812117c6ee749699eae98a496
Now I hear you asking, why are we going long? This company looks like it's speed running bankruptcy and setting a WR while doing it. The answer is simple, ~~I have no idea what I am doing~~, big money and insiders are betting on it's survival and a rebound in the stock price.
**EARNINGS**
Earnings is coming up for HLF on Feb 19 2025. That is Wednesday after market close folks.
Now lets look at the last few quarters of earnings:
* **Quarter Ending: Sep 30, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.30
* Actual EPS: $0.57
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: +24.2%
* **Quarter Ending: Jun 30, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.39
* Actual EPS: $0.54
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: -25.7%
* **Quarter Ending: Mar 31, 2024**
* Expected EPS: $0.37
* Actual EPS: $0.49
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: +15.9%
* **Quarter Ending: Dec 31, 2023**
* Expected EPS: $0.39
* Actual EPS: $0.28
* 1-Week Post-Earnings Stock Price Change: -28.6%
Do you see the pattern? DO YOU SEE IT? Every earnings this mother father moves a lot. It moves 25% in a week like its nothing, filthy.
# Q2 2024 (April - June) – “One last dump”
* **Net Sales:** $1.3B (down 2.5% YOY)
* **Adjusted Net Income:** $54.8M
* **Gross Margin:** 77.9%
* **Office Sale:** Torrance HQ sold for $41M and leased back for 16 months
* **Debt Refinancing:** $1.6B completed earlier in the year
* **Restructuring Program:** $80M in annual savings expected in 2025
# Q3 2024 (July - September) – “Debt Paid, Bags Made”
* **Net Sales:** $1.2B (down 3.2% YOY)
* **Adjusted Net Income:** $58M
* **Adjusted EBITDA:** $166.5M
* **Debt Reduction:** Paid down $85M of debt
* **Forward Guidance:** Raised full-year guidance
Basically, they know they're struggling and they're doing everything they can to reduce debt and reverse this trend. Q3 was the last positive quarter with a spike. The spike didn't last long at all and it sold off harshly after the first month (-40% to date) but we are aiming for that 25% spike again friends.
**INSIDER ACTIVITY**
So what are the insiders doing besides failing to run their ~~scam~~ company well? Well in 2024, the insiders we're mostly buying more shares from the $7 - $10.5 range. The number of buys was also significantly higher compared to other negative growth years. Granted its mostly one insider buying over the last year but the takeaway is, if they loved the stock at $8, they should REALLY love it in the $5.
**BIG MONEY**
Go to the options chain. LEAPS. **Jan 15'27 12.5C**.
Do you see that open interest? Do you see that 10k contracts purchased at $90 a pop. Well my friends, that is a recently opened position and it was opened quite SWIFTLY. When the stock dumped last week from $6.50 to $5.30, this position was opened up quickly. This means these will print GAURANTEED.
There are also a lot of other option activity on the chain implying a big move one way or another. This one will be volatile on / after earnings day. Almost no chance it stays flat.
If you're not convinced at this point, then I'm afraid you leave me no choice but to talk about the....
**ANAL-YSTS**
There are a few analysts that cover this stock. Here are their recent ratings:
https://preview.redd.it/xjxij10rh4je1.png?width=1580&format=png&auto=webp&s=e379209b2a3e362c348328106f7fc0746643ef9a
They are still dishing out $7-$13 targets over the last half year. And I think they couldn't be more right. If this earnings is big GREEN like I predict, then the analysts will pile on with revised ratings sending it even higher.
I even emailed all the analysts covering this stock and while they did all ignore me, I got a vacation auto-response from one of them which is a BIG BULL SIGNAL. Probably on a cruise ship somewhere waiting for the big 50% gain day to drop.
**MORALITY CHECK**
Now it has to be said, I don't really care for MLM scam companies like Herbalife and ultimate would be happy to see them go bankrupt. But money is money, and by longing, I am playing both sides so that I always come out on top.
I literally can't lose!
**POSITIONS**
Opened freshly right before posting this DD:
https://preview.redd.it/y9h8yr24i4je1.png?width=332&format=png&auto=webp&s=941fd2731c9d41c9bd7a44911d99342f65bc31f5
**QUESTIONS**
Please leave any questions in the comment section below and someone from our customer service team will respond to your inquiry within 4-12 business days.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
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Why CRZBY is my "crazy baby"!
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Good day fellow crazy babies,
today I want to talk about one of the biggest German banks Commerzbank (CRZBY) and why I am heavily invested in them.
Honestly I won't bore you with the basics, but to summarize they have very good financials, with rising common business activity, profit, EPS, dividends and capital:
||2024|2023|2022|2021|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|sales volume|11,9 B|22,5 B|14,6 B|12,2 B|
|profit|2,7 B|2 B|1,2 B|431 M|
|EPS (after tax)|2,28|1,63|0,99|0,23|
|dividends|0,65|0,35|0,2|0,00|
|capital|(no data)|527,8 B|491,9 B|473 B|
Yes, they do have debt, but it's a bank, that's their business model...
To the main topic, why is CRZBY going crazy and will continue doing so?
There are currently ongoing talks about a take-over from the Italian Unicredit bank. They are threatening a hostile take-over and already hold around 28% of shares, trying to increase their stakeholder power.
Meanwhile Commerzbank is trying to avoid a hostile take-over, but they are apparently not against a merger. We don't know the exact state of negotiations but looks like Unicredit will soon give a formal offer.
Of course to sell at the best price possible Commerzbank also has an interest in pushing the share price up, making them as expensive as possible to buy out. Hence insider buying is also going through the roof, indicading that Commerzbank is trying to "defend" by buying shares aswell.
As a result the share price has been going up and up and up and it will only go further up from here on.
The bank itself is already undervalued and if Unicredit succeeds with the take-over they will do so at atleast twice the shareprice giving the Commerzbank executives and other shareholders a real nice payout.
One thing to mention is the involvment of the German government: The German state is also a major shareholder and as a major German company they are not too happy about such a take-over, especially if it's going to be a hostile one.
But Unicredit chose a very wise time to attempt this. There is currently a re-election in Germany and the ruling parties have no time to worry about this situation, since they have to put all their resources into the election and their election campaigns.
And if there is a new government in 2 weeks (most likely), they'll first have other stuff to sort out.
As a result it is highly unlikely, that the government will put a stop to this take-over.
That's it for today, happy to hear all your opinions.
My positions:
https://preview.redd.it/98t2qau964je1.jpg?width=1007&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c48b47e9381bd4f1a0dfac464fa2cb43f2bcac6
additionally I now own another 1000 shares at 16,19€ from an inheritance account I do not have access to yet, until the paperwork of my deceased great-aunt is all sorted out.
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SMCI Bull Thesis
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SMCI BULLISH Thesis
This has been the most time I've ever spent researching a stock. So far, in matters of relevance, key indicators have been used based on relevant facts over BS fiction short seller reports. Let's look at historical facts and readily available information. SMCI company is BRUTALLY HONEST, and they are being reported as misleading. I will have every short summaries of all relevant information of last delisting, and recent late filing to instill confidence of actually reporting this time. Adding more calls at open. For Mar 21. paper handed a ton already. over 5 k in profits. Been following since $18.already but the more I dig the more confidence I get. Will allocate more of those funds in intervals before Feb 20 as I believe that day will have huge news. Will probably not add any very long dates calls because I believe market cap will increase 100% by Mar21. Probably 300-500% by 27. But those profits for Mar21-April range are going to absolutely generate 1000s% anyways.
This post indicates all relevant information and overlooks no available Info im confident. if I did post a comment as I’ve got over 100 hours jn on this stock now.
Keep in mind CEOs for SMCI and Nvidia are meeting DDN Feb 20 to discuss what DDN says as possibly ground breaking AI news. Black Stone just invested 300m into this Private equity company. I think we can use some of the words SMCI said in the last business update to make this information relevant like “Confidential new product line” he touched on this Feb 12. Let’s keep in mind SMCI offered 700M convertible notes. Not sure what’s about to roll out but I think SMCI was pummeled with legal fees and this news needs money like now. I’m almost certain we have filing before the Feb 25th. I say this 1) DDN Feb 20 2)Before 20th or after but before 25th release all filings1, 10ks, 3, 10Qs. 3) New CFO before 25. 4) NVIDIA discussing huge earnings with new news on huge upcoming projects. Maybe talking and pumping SMCI with proud partner getting ready for this huge BOOM.
Couple this with Trump, EU already talking HUNDREDS of billions will be dumped into AI over next 5 years. Couple this with trump possibly doing big tax cuts, like we’ve seen in the past. And honestly couple this with the true news that this company is literally pulling in 10s of billions as they were in 2023 and are at half the market cap on all this BS news. I think SMCI priced in for SMCI not listing documents and going under selling OTC I’m being serious. 25b rev this year market cap 24b. This is going to change very soon.
Information below this will give you more confidence that SMCI will 100% file based on being honest in the past. And some other miscellaneous things.
1) September 14, 2017. The initial delay in 10-k. \*EXACT WORDS\* "The Company is unable at this time to provide a date as to when the review and the audits will be completed." this is over internal controls over financial reporting for June 30, 2017, 10-k... "Company operating expense expected to be higher for the quarter because of legal and accounting costs."
2) January 30, 2018. Fin info/Management changes/delayed sec filings update... "Audit Committee completed disclosed investigation. We will need additional reviews before the finalized 10k report to determine if changes will need to be made. KEY UNABLE THIS TIME TO PROVIDE DATE FOR 10-K." Today's new CFO is Kevin Bauer. Needs plan update on FEB 28 for filings due March 13 "SEC Compliance."
3) FEB 20, 2018. The exact words 8 days before the deadline... I need more time for 10k and will request an extension on an update for FEB 28. If not granted, they said they had the option to appeal. (Was Granted) extended 180 days
4) May 3, 2018, Fin/Info Because I'm transparent, I include all "KEY POINT relevant updates to show endpoint differences in tones." Back to update, "Audit committee overseeing additional testing company believes it is nearing completion for \*current filings only\*. \*NOT INCLUDING 10K BACK TO BEARISH\*." Then it directly goes back to saying additional testing is required to analyze the impact on the company's historical financial statements and complete 10k... Back to square 1. They say they will file 10Q for sep30,dec31, and March 31 after the 10k release, but there is no update, and they say additional time is needed for 10k. He still needs 10- K by August 24.
5) July30/Aug 7 4Q fin. Results were scheduled for August 7 after the announcement on July 30 and rescheduled to August 21, on August 7. It's horrible News, as the update was critical at this point because delisting would occur if reports were not filed on August 24... This is where I believe all the people claiming SMCI are crooks. \*But keep in mind at no point did they warrant 10-K was anywhere near ready but consistently diligent with saying current reports are looking good "10Qs", but 10 K still needs extensive care and has to be released first, then goes on and says 10K still needs to go through extensive testing for historical info throughout 2017-2018 going all the way to final update\* Yes this information for investors would warrant an even further upset failing to produce positive News for compliance. But again, at NO POINT DID SMCI EVER POST NEWS OF 10 K progress nearing completion up until or by AUG24.
6) August 21 4Q Fin/Info is irrelevant; it is a separate article. SEC FILINGS... It says, as we all know, extreme leaps were made, but they came up short due to the pure magnitude of historical information that needs to be audited. Remember that the AI wave is pumping in tons of new business, and companies need extensive capital for pure growth to come. And also being blasted by legal fees and accounting costs crippling this company's margins and ability to keep up with demand. But at NO POINT EVER INSIGHTED SIGNIFICANT VALUE IN THE PROOF OF RELEASE OF 10K.
Part 2. (1B) 2024/5 current news. (1B1) News compares/contrasts the 2018 delist to the 25 News and relists 2020. (1C) Deception of short sellers HIDENBUGER (closed)actual truths and findings of (EY).
1B) August 28 Delays 10K internal controls over Fin. Reporting.
2B) November 5: A special committee releases information/SEC filing update \* investigation is complete on concerns raised by EY. No fraud or misconduct was found.\* \*But for remedial measures, strengthen internal governance and oversight functions\* says unable to give a time frame on 10k filings\* No auditor is the reason for that
3B) November 18 new auditor BDO. Ask for a time extension. \*November 20 says they will have all updated audited 10ks and 10qs within the discretionary period\* if it is granted time. This, along with the request for late filings of current quarters, is 10 qs.
4(B) DDecember 2review independent committee. It talks about recommendations for a new CFO, executives, and strengthening measures with more experience. As well what was supposed to be assessed raised by EY. concerns "(i) the integrity of the Company's senior management and Audit Committee, (ii) the commitment of the Company's senior management and Audit Committee to ensuring that the Company's financial statements are materially accurate, (iii) the Audit Committee's independence and ability to provide proper oversight over matters relating to financial reporting, and (iv) the tone at the top of the Company about rehiring certain former employees and financial reporting" All concerns raised by EY appeared to hold no weight, and SMCI was compliant with independent committee everything came back good... Very import read SMCI IR December 2 2024 recommend reading full document. Also, SMCI says they believe they will have all filings within the discretionary period. February 25
5B) February 11, 2024 Fin. Update business call. They said they believe they will file all past and current, up-to-date quarterly and yearly forms. By February 25. They can't say anything more than this, but it's a dead giveaway compared to the reports in the past. Also, I subpoenaed the court for a short seller report from Aug(Hidenburg) And all the suits caused by this. SMCI says these are without merit and that no past statements need restatements.
(1B1) January 9 2020 approved relist 14th first trade day.
(2B1) AUG 25, 2020 accounting investigation settlement. They never actually admitted to anything of fraud but indeed paid the settlement. Whether they cooked the books or not, they likely did. Do I find this necessarily bearish? For the time being, yes (2020).
(3B1) Compared, some factors had near resemblances. Based on reports raised by Hidenburg, EY.
(4B1) In Contrast, there was a reasonable likelihood that 2024 issues were raised for external Speculation. In 2017/18, there was a valid reason to believe that SMCI was cooking books.
1C) Hindenburg reports, I'll be 1000% honest: this is the laziest report I've ever seen written. I'll go straight down the list. The statement is fear-mongering availability bias practice; Hurryand reminds them of 2018. Anyways,. It says SMCI was listed in 2018. Get this. I quote, "By August 2020, found improperly reporting revenue and fined." It would've taken half a second to realize this was, for instance, for 2018 delisting. I will tell you that Smci execs after relisting. I will say this with this statement about hiring three execs back 3 months after reinstatement to scare people that they're doing the same thing. No evidence for years after has ever been brought up about the. SEC heavily looked into SMCI after initially relisting. This is absolute madness. Well, I don't need to tell you this is false because there are about five statements down. The new CFO, extremely honest, goes even further in-depth several pages down. Later in the article,. It goes on and on about how great Kevin Bauer would never steal. Then, he says that SMCI cut his head in 2021 so they could get going. He talks about how the SEC liked him and how SMCI feared him being too fair and honest. But as mentioned, they were already improperly recording revenue 3 months after reinstatement. Then he seems to go on about them doing business with his brothers, about an industry I know well. It looks like this brother's company does sub-assembly, a massive manufacturing tool. I'm sure it's way cheaper labor overseas. Then, it acts as if SMCI is wrong for not disclosing them when they didn't have to until the filing. EY was also going through losing 84 companies because they were labeled the company with the most mistakes made by mad numbers. It costs 200 million dollars with all of these losses for EY. This was a perfect chance for EY to take the steam off their prior failures. Anyways, all the information claimed on SMCI has now been claimed as false. Not only this, but EY did all the 10-Q for 2023. Why did they wait until mid-Octoberr after Hindenburg reported a year after they did the auditing on every 10-Q prior to report all of SMCI fraud?
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BigBear.AI (BBAI) -- Time to Get Off? Or go full regard? Here's my DD.
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*\*Second submission attempt with hopefully appropriate position screenshot\**
First, let me give credit where credit is due and give props to this BBAI rally we're witnessing. Pretty impressive, though speculative.
Please see my short position below and allow me to explain why I'm bearish on BBAI and why this party may come to an end soon if retail FOMO/hype runs out. I'll try to keep this high level and brief.
https://preview.redd.it/e400jt6zi0je1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23ba9b2b06c43c486b81abf2d48febd7491883e3
I wanna get into the catalysts that have started this rally. The typical news people praise includes the new CEO and his relationship with Trump, government contracts and backlog. I'll end by giving my thoughts on the stock.
**1. Kevin McAleenan, recently appointed CEO and former DHS Secretary under Trump**
There's speculation that with Trump back in the White House, McAleenan's past relationship with the President will be beneficial for BBAI and may help secure future contracts. I believe this is false and would go as far as saying it actually may be a detriment given their history and here's why:
* BBAI CEO Kevin McAleenan only served as DHS Secretary from April 11, 2019 to November 13, 2019 which was essentially a brief 7-month interim tenure. His tenure was not only short but publicized; CNN reported that Trump referred to him as an "Obama guy" and their relationship ran hot and cold. Additionally, Trump never officially stated if he would give McAleenan the position permanently. McAleenan resigned before we could see otherwise, becoming one of the shortest-serving secretaries in the department's history. *Source:* [Acting Homeland Security chief McAleenan was prepared to resign in June, felt undermined by subordinates](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/08/politics/mcaleenan-immigration-hardliners-white-house/index.html)
* **BBAI CEO Kevin McAleenan on PBS, publicly spoke out about Trump and stated Trump's rhetoric during the attempted insurrection at the State Capitol created a dangerous situation. He went as far as saying that it was an assault on our democracy.** *Source:* [Former head of Homeland Security on the dangers of Trump's rhetoric](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DNoXrWyJiw)
While I won't go as far to say they had a contentious relationship, it certainly appears that they may have lacked mutual respect for each other. You can do a quick google search to find more detail on this, there are a bunch of publications and articles available online speaking to BBAI CEO's resignation and speaking out about Trump.
**2. Government Contracts/Backlog (Financial Analysis)**
*Historical*
Based on historical 9/30/24 TTM, cash burn for operating activities was $23.4 million with cash reserves of $65.6 million that gives them just 2.8 years runway to operate and that's before debt servicing, taxes or extraordinary costs. **So they essentially only have 3 more years of operations in their current financial condition.**
In regards to debt, they reported total debt of $196 million which has recently been restructured and extended from a 2026 maturity to a 2029 maturity. While this 3-year extension is a positive note, it cancelled their $25 million working capital revolver and BBAI will likely need to find additional financing to support operations in the near future. **Given their current leveraged debt position, they will likely not be able to find traditional bank financing which leads them to** **trade equity for cash AKA additional issuance of shares or more dilution**.
BBAI has been and will remain upside down for the foreseeable future. They also do not hold any meaningful tangible assets in a liquidation scenario, most of their assets contain intangible assets (software IP) and Goodwill (acquisition).
*Forward-looking*
Management reports ending backlog at 9/30/24 was $437 million. Unfortunately detail for each contract is not publicly available but we can make some assumptions.
* We know the Army contract is $165 million over 5 years (we'll assume straight-line for simplicity). If we assume the same gross profit margin of \~26% reported for the 9/30/24 period; the Army contract would provide $8.6 million in annual gross profit or $715 thousand monthly gross income.
* $272 million would be remaining in backlog and if assuming a 10 year duration this would provide $7.1 million in annual gross profit or $59 thousand monthly gross income. I'm assuming that the FAA contract is the next largest and that was disclosed to have a 10 year duration. I think this is a reasonable assumption.
* In total we have $15.7 million in annual gross profit for at least the next 5 years. Keep in mind this is also assuming there are no issues/delays with deliverables/work-in-progress or contract draws. My math also assumes that backlog amount is unchanged at the start of 2025 (most likely lower given the work done in Q4 2024).
* OpEX -- TTM operating expenses were reported at $86.6 million which is a monthly amount of $7.2 million. I think it's also important to keep in mind that OpEx has been increasing period over period and that shouldn't be a surprise given the need for R&D in the AI space and scaling of operations like increased headcount to accommodate additional contracts/work size. Engineers aren't cheap but Glassdoor says differently in BBAI's case, which I'll talk about more below.
* So keeping all that rough math in mind, we have about **$70.9 million in annual operating losses** or $5.9 million in monthly operating losses projected in this year. **This is before taking into account debt repayment ($196 million), taxes, or any extraordinary costs that may arise (litigation, bad things, etc.). It also assumes they run into no bumps along the way, operationally, which they have already stated is to be expected and comes with the AI territory. The AI space is a highly competitive space and with everything the Trump administration/DOGE are getting their hands in, I believe there is not only operational risk but reasonable contract risk.** This share price is obviously not reflecting the fundamentals. People are saying one more contract to the moon when in reality BBAI needs contracts just to get to sea-level.
* I should note that these figures do not include the recent contracts from the Navy ($5 billion) and DOD/CDAO ($1.3 million). The reason being, I consider the DOD/CDAO contract nominal at $1.3 million. More importantly, we have no idea how the Navy's SeaPort NxG contract is structured for BBAI besides the news that they've been included in the program and the total program's contract amount. There are thousands of vendors/companies who also have access to this $5 billion. For example. BBAI was among 1,023 companies that were awarded rolling admissions (2nd round) and access to the $5 billion Navy program. **Including first and second round, there are over 2,400 companies accepted in the Navy's SeaPort NxG program. Admitted vendors still compete/bid and are awarded contracts within this bubble. This is not guaranteed revenue. It's essentially on an Ad Hoc basis. This is the case with the FAA contract as well.** *Sources:* [Navy Selects Over 1K Vendors for SeaPort NxG Contract Under 2nd Rolling Admissions](https://www.govconwire.com/2025/01/navy-selects-over-1k-vendors-seaport-nxg-contract-2nd-rolling-admissions/) | [Harnessing Power, Navigating Change... TAKE THE HELM FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICE SOLUTIONS](https://www.navsea.navy.mil/Business-Partnerships/SeaPort-NxG/)
* Quick and dirty math, the above assumptions would get us -$60.2 million in EBITDA (assuming $10.7 million depreciation addback) which would give us a P/S ratio of -0.24x based on 252 million outstanding shares. This ultimately equates to a P/E ratio of -41.7x if we assume an average share price of $10. All non-sense numbers in a nutshell.
* Additionally, they will have $12 million in annual interest expense on their $200 million facility and income taxes will increase with increased income which was previously reported at $22 million for 9-month 9/30/24.
* BBAI's [GlassDoor.com](http://glassdoor.com/) employee reviews reek of the same sentiment with some reviews **this year** going as far as saying *"No clear direction from management and no standard operating procedure"*, *"Whenever it is time to renew the contract for a project, there is issues with government funding which causes delays and even sometime a furlough"*, and *"Never able to bring the 3 distinct companies together as one. C-Suite selling shares like there's no tomorrow. No new contracts that I've seen"*. **Summarized as bad work/life balance, paused inflationary raises (losing money to inflation while working there), lack of direction from management, high turnover, etc.** *Source:* [GlassDoor: BigBear.ai overview](https://www.glassdoor.com/Overview/Working-at-BigBear-ai-EI_IE4857471.11,21.htm)
**Closing Thoughts**
Take my numbers/analysis with a grain of salt.
From a business standpoint, it's not all peaches and cream on the horizon for BBAI -- they are churning and burning with a high need to keep product development and contract generation at a consistently high level. Two very difficult and costly things to do in the AI space.
I have concerns over their financial condition, internal processes, and future cash flow as they do not seem to exist.
Stock price is insanely high for a business that's never turned a profit. Just because it has a few new contracts? Its got the new debt to match too, don't forget.
Not to mention the reputation to boom and bust around this time of year.
I do not know the timing but I think they will likely issue more shares to take advantage of this price action. This thing ain't just going to keep going up and they need all the capital they can get.
Future contracts are not guaranteed, management knows this so they will be constantly exploring ways to secure additional liquidity/working capital...most obvious place for that is share issuance AKA lower share pricing.
I'll end with this -- it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out, especially with the long weekend and earnings being around the corner. I feel like there's still a lot of hype and FOMO, however, I think the stock is overvalued and overbought.
Look at the short interest, I'm not the only one who thinks this.
Wish ya'll the best, hope everyone does well.
I welcome discussion on convincing me to go long.
This is not financial advice.
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Spotify Buy/Sell/Holf
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Spotify Buy/Sell/Hold, is it overvalued?
I've been bullish on SPOT for years, started buying at $73 in 2022 and DCA'd up to a cost basis of $120, so I've done well so far but is my original thesis playing out and still intact?
**OG Thesis:**
My original thesis, shortened so we can focus on today and the future: The majority of Spotify users are ad tier (at the time around 60%), but they made up less than 15% of revenue. Spotify was focused on growing MAUs instead of real monetization, but once the MAU growth starts to slow they will pivot more into monetization. I'm not concerned about more ads scaring away users, some will go to Subscriber tier and the others weren't profitable anyway, since Spotify's expenses are somewhat tied to how many listens they get having less listeners that aren't profitable isn't necessarily bad. Additionally, Spotify started getting into podcasts and I saw that being a driver of future growth. Lastly, I think they have pricing power on subscriptions.
**Past Performance:**
So how has Spotify done over the last 2 years (from Q2 22 to Q4 24)?
|\#'s in Thousands|Q2 2022|Q4 2024|Change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|MAUs|433|678|54.3%|
|Revenue|2,864|4,242|48.1%|
|Net Income|(125)|367|393.6%|
|Free Cash flow|37|877|2,270.3%|
Key factors tying to my thesis: 2022 Ad tier MAU was 59.12% and contributed to 12.52% of revenue. In 2024 it was 62.96% and 12.66% respectively.
My thoughts based on my original thesis: I did expect Ad tier MAU to begin to contribute more to revenue by now, especially with being an even larger percent of MAU. I like to invest thinking 5 years ahead minimum, so at the time I was thinking by 2027 Ad tier should contribute to 30% of revenue (while maintaining around the 60% of MAU area), there is time left for them to get to the 30% area I wanted to see but I did expect to see SOME improvement. Spotify is also still growing MAU at >10% so I will give some slack in not fully monetizing yet. Spotify has done 2-3 Sub tier price increases with another one announced, so I was right they have pricing power (I wish they used it more on ad tier than loyal Subscribers tho). I am happy with their podcast growth, thankful they realized to cut their podcast spending though.
Overall thoughts: Clearly Spotify figured out the cost cutting and improved FCF and net income at a very healthy clip. I'm also generally happy with the MAU growth but slightly disappointed in Revenue growth. Back to the Ad tier not carrying their weight there. I'm also very pleased with the introduction of audiobooks and video integration. Both I think can be growth drivers with video having huge potential. Personally, as a user, I think they are pricing audiobooks too aggressively for it to do as well as it can.
**Spotify's future:**
I did my own rough estimates for their MAU, revenue, and FCF in 10 years. Then I did an estimate using Spotify's target 1B MAU by 2030 and expanding growth another 5 years.
My method:
I used 4%/yr MAU growth (Subs growing 6% and Ad 2.5%). I won't bore you with too much info, but I made 6 revenue estimates using varying growth of Rev/MAU for Ad and Sub tier. Then I estimated each estimates FCF using 15% (current rate), 20% and 25%.
**M1**
|In thousands|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Revenue**|29,028|92,227|
|**Free Cash Flow**|5,854|23,057|
Now using Spotifys estimate of 1B MAU by 2030 then 5%/yr to 2035. I used the same method for revenue and FCF estimates.
**M2**
|In thousands|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Revenue**|47,964|118,578|
|**Free Cash Flow**|7,195|29,681|
My minimum revenue estimates used 3%/yr growth rev/MAU for both Ad and Sub tier. My max uses 8% for subs and 31% for ad tier BUT with a 10% cut to ad tier MAU to account for upset users. Figures based on average yearly revenue per user, See below:
|Tier|FY 2024 Average|Minimum Estimate|Max Estimate|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Ad|56|75|120|
|Subscriber|5|7|75|
**Valuation:**
I like reverse DCF calcs to find what todays valuation should be. For my estimates I used 4% terminal growth and 11% Discount rate. For estimates with Spotify MAU growth I used 3% terminal and 11% Discount rate, with the faster growth I expect less runway for the terminal growth. I will show my RDCF valuations for the Average and Max FCF estimates, not the minimum since it is absolutely overvalued if it doesn't surpass min estimates.
Price today: **$647.66**
|Average M1|Max M1|Average M2|Max M2|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|548.26|841.90|638.41|958.93|
|(15.35%)|30.50%|\-1.13%|48.17%|
**Final Thoughts:**
As the valuations show, Spotify has upside if they surpass some pretty hefty targets. But even hitting my average estimates doesn't give much upside at the current price, M2 average assumes 23.5% FCF growth for 10 yrs which is no joke. I'm still bullish on the company, but I'm **Holding** for now with buying as an option on a 12%+ dip from current prices.
**Thesis going forward:**
My original thesis is mostly still in play. I see a future where monetizing the ad tier can lead to significant growth. Podcasts, audiobooks and video have huge potential and can drive growth the hit my highest estimates. Podcasts and audiobooks gives support to price increases and better advertising opportunities while also having higher potential margins due to less royalties. Video can drive more streaming hours and grab some market share from Youtube or other streamers. Spotify is integrating it slowly and they didn't mention tapping into a youtube-like video platform but if they can successfully pull it off any market share gain will lead to better than expected growth.
For me to buy more I will like to see video progress and/or higher ad RPU or achieving 15%+ Subscriber growth. At current valuations I don't see a way to justify the valuation with less than 25% of revenue coming from Ad tier. It just isn't sustainable to raise subscription prices enough to justify the valuation, which is why 15%+ growth here could sway me to buy.
Selling would involve losing MAU without significantly increasing ad tier RPU, stagnant MAU and RPU growth, or ad tier growing higher than 65% without contributing more than 15% of revenue. I'd probably sell some if it increases above $730, it'd be my first 10-bagger and over-priced for me. So I'd want to lock in that kind of gain and buy again at a better valuation.
Repost to add positions
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Moar!!!! Down with the TWLO . Someone please tell me what they do
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$SXT – THE DYING RAINBOW: worse for your portfolio than Red5
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Listen up, degenerates. Tomorrow, the **Skittles Factory of Wall Street**, otherwise known as **Sensient Technologies ($SXT)**, drops its earnings. And I’m here to tell you why this thing is about to get curb-stomped harder than a bag of Doritos in a fat kid’s backpack.
1. FDA Just Banned Red Dye No. 3 – And This Is Just the Beginning
Last week, the FDA officially banned Red Dye No. 3 in foods and medicines, citing health risks. This isn’t just some fringe move—consumer and regulatory pressure against artificial additives is growing. Sensient relies heavily on artificial colors and flavors, and while they do have “natural” alternatives, the reality is that these regulations chip away at their core business.
RFK Jr. isn’t behind this ban, but his stance on ultra-processed foods and chemicals in the food system makes it clear: more restrictions are coming. If the government keeps tightening the noose on artificial ingredients, Sensient is in trouble.
2. Junk Food Demand Is Down, and Inflation Isn’t Helping
Most of Sensient’s biggest customers are processed food companies—the same ones that load up on artificial coloring and flavoring. But with inflation squeezing consumer wallets, people are buying fewer unnecessary products.
Shoppers are sticking to basic essentials instead of splurging on premium snacks, candies, and artificially flavored drinks.
Big food brands are raising prices, but they can’t pass all the costs down, which means they’re cutting back on suppliers—and Sensient is one of them.
This demand slowdown is a serious problem because Sensient doesn’t control pricing power. They’re at the mercy of major food companies, and when those companies cut costs, suppliers like SXT feel the pain first.
Im regarded. So I bought puts for tomorrow
21/2 75P
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Analyzing Undervalued Tech: Intels Semiconductor Manufacturing
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Alright bonobos, I put all my creativity into making a title that spells AUTISM so I hope that will be enough to make you at least skip all this text and read the TL;DR of this post. While I start this of in WSB style the content is supposed to be serious. I'm writing this post in tribute to Nana and hope her regarded grandson is still holding. 🙏
I will cover:
* Product Status
* CEO Status
* Geopolitical Developments
* Notable 13F Filings
* Sentiment
* My Position
**Product Status**
So the main take I see on X and Reddit is that Intel's products suck and their financials are even worse. Well guess what, that take is still valid today. And what's worse about this situation? TSMC is the one producing these products.
So, that part is the reason why Intel's market cap is now only 37% of Palantir's but that might also be the worst possible comparison I can make at this point.
Now onto the positives. Intel recently released consumer GPUs which are called Battlemage. These are already highly praised in subreddits about pc building and seen from the posts are also often out of stock and even scalped like it's 2021 again. They are also releasing new CPUs with naming schemes that are harder than they were but here too the first benchmarks are looking very good (like the Ultra 9 275HX).
These new designs in combination with switfly improving drivers are not the big revenue drivers but it is a clear hint to what they're capable of.
The most important thing about product is that they claim to be on schedule to start 18A high volume manufacturing (HVM) in H2 2025. 18A is a new node technique that is capable of laserbeaming transistors closer together than anyone else including TSMC, meaning chips with higher transistor density. They are also planning on allowing others (like Microsoft) to fabricate their own design chips on this node.
**CEO Status**
Keeping this one short, it will be former GlobalFoundries CEO Tom Caulfield but this news just still has to officially drop sometime soon. (Ok... I'm not 100% sure about this but currently this is the most likely scenario and sentiment about him on socials appears to be very good).
**Geopolitical Developments**
Do I really have to explain this?! If Intel pulls of 18A HVM, they are the only (American) company producing these high tech chips. We know Trumps administration gets hard from hearing the words domestic production and I bet they prefer Intel over TSMCs fabs because well... even with fabs in America it still has Taiwan in its name.
Then early this week we also had this quote from JD Vance on CNN:
*Vance also mentioned other touchstones of Trump’s administration, saying that, “to safeguard America’s advantage,” it will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the US with American-designed and manufactured chips.*
At the same time Intel VP:
*Intel vice president just said in the AI SUMMIT that chips used for AI will be designed and ‘produced’ in the US.*
So after these developments and knowing 18A HVM is coming soon. What I think is most interesting here (hopefully not going fully conspiracy theorist): Why is the Trump administration delaying tariffs on chips specifically? Are they.... are they waiting for... they're not waiting for... right?!?! **Imagine...**
**Notable 13F Filings:**
Alright so, companies with >100M USD are required by the SEC to disclose their trades through a form called 13F which most of you will likely know. The rules for 13F are that they have to file within 45 days after quarter end. Q4 2024 = December 31st. Add 45 days and you get February 14th, add some SEC processing time and the peak of new filings usually hits 15-17th of February meaning for now I have to use the info from Q3.
Overall 13F shows that in Q3 institutions total holdings decreased which, given purely the financials, makes sense (algo say money bad = sell), but that's how your boomer pension funds work. We can also look at the people who will try to fuck us over (and make money) like... Citadel. Even Citadel is boring compared to the next one but Citadel is LOADING up on shares and calls.
Most interesting? Jane Street. These guys are the super nerds that predict the market and are also market ~~manipulators~~ makers. They sold, but that's not the full story. While they have/had a lot of puts which they increased by 18% in Q3, they also increased their calls by 450%. Their new filing for Q4 will likely show another hard trend in this direction.
**Sentiment**
So as we've already seen this week, sentiment is changing in Intel's favor. People are cautiously regaining confidence in their products and that combined with a very favorable administration and a new node could make this one of the most interesting plays one can do in 2025.
**My position**
I got burned around Nana time (believe that was Q2 ER last year) and lost about 10k USD. Got back in over the past few weeks with a 20$ avg. for 3000 shares.
**TLDR**
Screw that this post took too long and we have a TLDR bot these says so read the bots comment. I will add WSB emoji tax after posting so I can do it on my phone.
EDIT: Phone tax: “🙌💎🦅pleas fly again 🦅💎🙌”. REPOSTED because mods deleted it since it had no screenshot of position...
Position (65k EUR):
https://preview.redd.it/h5ablj19nwie1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7e077fc7e237ff265f105a84f52c7ce6073044e
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Case for a super-stellar NVDA Earnings and unprecedented growth
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**Case for a super-stellar NVDA Earnings and unprecedented growth**
**TL;DR**: Immediate PT 162 after earnings event on 2/26
*Disclaimer*: I have 10+ years of extensive AI background (before it was cool) in leading industry and academic institutions with multiple first-author top AI research papers and patents. Never worked for NVDA, and have worked with their proprietary chip-software CUDA since 2013.
All of this note is manually typed out, without the use of ChatGPT or any GenAI platform (also added in the post on why). May not respond to comments, but if something jumps out to me, may edit the post.
**Not Financial Advice** (NFA) - do your own DD, and evaluate your risk tolerance.
This contains a) verifiable quantitative elements, b) interpretations on continued growth, c) current GenAI limitations, fueling further innovation, d) Leading public personalities' testimonies with supporting numbers
* Will leave out comments on some research components signaling increased demand for NVDA to avoid conflict of interest by my employer and ongoing research pursuits.
* So, the following thesis contains publicly verifiable information for anyone with an internet connection and a computing device.
***Thesis***:
**Quantitative indicator** (no emotions or belief needed):
**CapEx** (sic) (post DeepSeek): 44% more than last fiscal year at 320B spend projected
(The graph does not include confirmed orders for xAI, OpenAI, ORCL, Perplexity AI, India)
https://preview.redd.it/5khygj5dauie1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f49e1aeead889dc0bfb04b24a956938523fff792
**Quantitative indicator** (no emotions or belief needed):
Which top Chipmaker gets the revenue for new AI datacenters amongst NVDA, AVGO, AMD
* To be noted: AMD Datacenter revenue this earnings was a miss, despite there being increased demand. So, it should be going to the other contending chipmakers. (AMD's data center earnings was ***6% lower*** than the consensus estimate: Actual $3.9 billion, Expected: $4.15 billion)
* More on NVIDIA's revenue increase in later section
https://preview.redd.it/u7eottfkauie1.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=b547d9757985ea8868432a077314b63a9d0c2673
**Continued AI spend and AI growth**
* **MSFT**: *"Microsoft Azure earnings grow but disappoint, company blames data center capacity constraints"“We have been short power and space. And so, as you see those investments land that we've made over the past three years, we get closer to that balance by the end of this year.” - Amy Hood (MSFT CFO)*"Azure is the infrastructure layer for AI. We continue to expand our data center capacity in line with both near-term and long-term demand signals. We have more than doubled our overall data center capacity in the last three years. And we have added more capacity last year than any other year in our history."
* **AMZN**: Generative AI is a “really unusually large, maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity,” - Amazon CEO Andy Jassy to analyst during ER [call.In](http://call.In) same ER call: “Our deep collaboration with NVIDIA goes back more than 13 years, when we launched the world’s first GPU cloud instance on AWS. Today we offer the widest range of GPU solutions available anywhere in the cloud, supporting the world’s most technologically advanced accelerated workloads. It's why the new NVIDIA Blackwell GPU will run so well on AWS and the reason that NVIDIA chose AWS to co-develop Project Ceiba, combining NVIDIA’s next-generation Grace Blackwell Superchips with the AWS Nitro System's advanced virtualization and ultra-fast Elastic Fabric Adapter networking, for NVIDIA's own AI research and development. Through this joint effort between AWS and NVIDIA engineers, we're continuing to innovate together to make AWS the best place for anyone to run NVIDIA GPUs in the cloud.” *Will skip 'The Jevons paradox' that Jassy shared during the ER call signaling increased AI work and adoption, since everyone must be bored to death by this theory. Also, trying to avoid using emotions or wishful thinking in this research thesis.*
* **NVDA**: **Jensen Huang**, Stanford Conference, 2024 (pre-deepseek or anything remotely similar. How aware he was of events like Deepseek much before it happened, and how he envisions NVDA will keep growing even more as a result of such software improvements)
* ***Question***: "According to your projection and calculation in 5 to 10 years how much more semiconductor manufacturing capacity is needed to support the growth of AI"
* ***Answer***: "We're going to need more Fabs however remember that we're also **improving the (software) algorithms and the processing of it um tremendously over time** it's **not as if the efficiency of computing will be what it is today** and therefore the demand is this much in the meantime I'm **improving Computing by a million times every 10 years** while **demand is going up by a trillion times** and that has to offset each other does that make sense and then there's technology diffusion and so on so forth that's just a matter of time but it doesn't change the fact that one day all of the computers in the world will be changed 100% every single data center will be all of those general purpose Computing data centers 100% of the trillion dollars worth of infrastructure will be completely changed and then there'll be new infrastructure built on even on top of that"
* ***Question***: You make completely State of-the-art chips. Is it possible though, that you'll face competition, that claims to be good enough, not as good as Nvidia, but good enough, and and much cheaper is that a threat. *See highlighted/bolded section if you don't want to read the long answer*
* ***Answer***:*TL;DR*: **our TCO (Total Cost of Operations to the AI customer) is so good that even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough.**"We have more competition than anyone on the planet has competition. Not only do we have competition from competitors, we have competition from our customers, and I'm the only competitor to a customer fully knowing they're about to design a chip to replace ours, and I show them not only what my current chip is, I show them what my next chip is, and I'll show them what my chip after that is.And the reason for that is because, look, if you don't make an attempt at explaining why you're good at something, they'll never get a chance to buy your products. And so, we're completely open book in working with just about everybody in the industry.And the reason for that—our advantage—is several. What we're about is several things. Whereas you could build a chip to be good at one particular algorithm, remember, computing is more than even Transformers. There's this idea called Transformers; there's a whole bunch of species of Transformers, and there are new Transformers being invented as we speak. And the number of different types of software is really quite rich.And so, we can accelerate that. We can accelerate quantum physics. We can accelerate Schrödinger's equations. We can accelerate just about everything—fluids, particles, lots and lots of code.And so, what NVIDIA is good at is the general field of accelerated computing. One of them is generative AI. And so, for a data center that wants to have a lot of customers—some in financial services, some in manufacturing, and so on—in the world of computing, we're a great standard. We're in every single cloud, we're in every single computer company, and so our company's architecture has become a standard, if you will, after some 30-some years. And so, that's really our advantage.If a customer can do something specifically that's more cost-effective, quite frankly, I'm even surprised by that. And the reason for that is this: Remember, our chip is only part of it. Think of when you see computers these days—it's not a computer like a laptop. It's a computer, it's a data center, and you have to operate it. And so, people who buy and sell chips think about the price of chips. People who operate data centers think about **the cost of operations (TCO)**—our *time to deployment, our performance, our utilization, our flexibility across all these different applications in total* allows our operations cost—they call it total cost of operations, TCO—**our TCO is so good that even when the competitor's chips are free, it's not cheap enough**. And that is our goal—to add so much value that the alternative is not about cost. And so, of course, that takes a lot of hard work, and we have to keep innovating and things like that, and we don't take anything for granted. But we have a lot of competitors."
* **Perplexity AI CEO**: [https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1889668709356023942](https://x.com/AravSrinivas/status/1889668709356023942) "Need to clarify this in no ambiguous terms: We still think **NVIDIA is peerless and singular and the industry leader by far. And nothing changes in our relationship with them**. I like Andrew and Cerebras team and they have really done good work in helping us achieve the 1200 tok/sec. It’s primarily the quality of our post training and the value of the data we have collected as a product that’s serving so many millions of users that got us to be better than the lightweight OpenAI and Anthropic models and on-par with the bigger ones. **All this was done on NVIDIA GPUs**. We benefitted a lot from Llama 3.3 that was trained with a ton of NVIDIA GPUs. We still **serve majority of the models we serve on production on NVIDIA GPUs**, eg custom versions of Llama and DeepSeek R1. **Cerebras or Grok are not robust chips** that can handle both dense models and sparse MoEs yet. NVIDIA chips can do any model class really efficiently. Cerebras is still bound by capacity constraints. I wish the Cerebras team and Andrew the best and glad we’re working with them and I think competition is good for the industry and will push NVIDIA to innovate faster on Blackwell and next generation of chips. But, *I do not appreciate any clickbait PR that claims Perplexity is moving away from NVIDIA or NVIDIA moats are disappearing*. We did not participate in that PR ourselves."
**On DeepSeek:**
The viral blog was authored by Jeffrey Emanuel (BA, Reed College, 2005), who does not hail from an AI background (academic or industrial), and does not have experience at a top-firm of their field (buy-side, or sell-side, or IB). So, the infamous blog which caused a flash crash of 600B in a day, may not be well founded and may feel sloppy to say the least. Prior AI investment experience does not necessarily evoke sound understanding to identify bloated claims from research papers. All it created was a stampede in a crowded theatre of people who wanted to be the first one out of the stampede, and are too scared to go back in, after it was found to be a hoax. The Chain-of-Thought concept explored in the paper is not new, and has been there for quite a few years. The paper took a departure from regular fine-tuning and relied on CoT processes which produces more grounded responses. The total cost of creating the model was grossly understated, and the results released in their paper was selectively shared, while it underperforms on few non-reported metrics.The AI research community needs just the very best GPUs to carry out their experiments, serving models via inference is just one aspect where people may even try to customize their specialized chips (see Jensen's response in earlier point), but the superpower of NVDA chips is how far ahead they are for the competition to even catch up, that AMD CEO famously stated that NVDA chips are so far ahead, that they chose to not compete with NVDA in creating the best chips - someone can link the news piece, if they have it readily available.
**On Need for more compute**:
While it may be noted that GenAI is mostly task-based, and not AGI, a challenge most researchers are figuring out rather than beating another state-of-the-art performance on yet another curated dataset.
**The most understated aspect is that model developers need the most state-of-the-art devices so as to not be constrained in their experiments and prefer general purpose devices for experiments to create breakthroughs. There will always be firms playing catchups and creating optimization, while industry leaders will strive to stay ahead as opposed to becoming an IBM, who stayed stuck in the older era of computing.**
https://preview.redd.it/vigya6z9auie1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76763f0e9207efe71cda164b303dda0cb0241312
**NVDA GPU backlogs**:
The GPU orders are so backlogged, that prompted the AMZN CEO Andy Jassy to mention his investment in proprietary chips, to let users have a choice of cheaper chips, despite them not being the very best (see earlier section on his ER comments for added context): "customers that they want better price performance on their AI workloads. As customers approach higher scale in their implementations, they realize quickly that AI can get costly. It's why we've invested in our own custom silicon in Trainium for training and Inferentia for inference. The second version of Trainium, Trainium2 is starting to ramp up in the next few weeks and will be very compelling for customers on price performance."
Also refer to other chipmakers like AVGO and Cerebras. *Counter*: See the earlier point made by Perplexity CEO.
While there will always be competitors as Jensen stated in section 3, they are well aware of their moat, and while there is always another social media app competing with Facebook (META), there is always a leader, and leads to better products and aggressive growth, rather then devolving into an IBM. As an example, one would strive to hire a top scientist from a top-school, as opposed to hire a person self-taught in their basement and using their local-resources. As always, exceptions exist.
**Moat** (outside of the earlier point on competition note by Jensen):
This segment is over and above NVDA CEO Jensen's (pre Deepseek) and Perplexity's comments (post Deepseek). Keeping this additional segment short, and invite readers to read up further on it, since it is more technical than the rest of the thesis.I have been using CUDA since 2013, which many *current GenAI experts (recently-minted from deepseek fiasco)* may not have had a chance to explore. Some of their other propietary technologies are CUDA, nCCL, cuDNN, TesorRT, NVLink, MIG, OptiX, DOCA (Data Center-on-a-Chip Architecture).AMD & Intel don’t have a CUDA alternative (ROCm is underdeveloped, and Intel's OneAPI is not competitive). NVIDIA’s ecosystem (CUDA + TensorRT + hardware) is an end-to-end solution that competitors lack.
**Quantum**:
They have been invested in Quantum technologies, and are hosting the upcoming"***NVIDIA GTC 2025: Quantum Day to Illuminate the Future of Quantum Computing***" [https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/), March 17-21, 2025: "At the first-of-its-kind event, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang will host industry leaders to discuss where quantum computing is headed".
While I can not comment on the ethicality of his recent quantum jab, but they have been very heavily invested in R&D in this space.While Quantum has two main approaches (annealing, and gate-based), one of which is currently usable (annealing) and the other (gate-based) is currently experimental. NVDA may have recognized this and I suspect his comment was aimed at the gate-based quantum approach.
**Conclusion**:
I need to go to sleep, so have to call it a day and wrap it up, although there are some additions on how the fear generated by a half-baked viral blog by Emanuel Jeffrey, that may have been necessary, but nevertheless was unfounded. It is understandable, since the AI revolution may be seen as having three facets: a) the model creators, b) model use-case creators, and c) AI users. From my understanding of people, the people in the model-creators segment are not necessarily very vocal, except in research efforts and publications, and not as visible in the wall-street or media. As always, exceptions exist.
**Not Financial Advice** (NFA) - do your own DD, and evaluate your risk tolerance.
**My Position**: Expecting PT 162/stock post-earnings on 2/26.
https://preview.redd.it/lpdwm95m7uie1.png?width=1248&format=png&auto=webp&s=2feb1d06345b551e5faf0bb837493e46897e4cd7
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Tomorrow we go to Valhalla. TTD
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107 puts expiring 💝 day. I want $70.
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$INTC The most hated 10 bagger that will make grandma proud
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TLDR; only truly American fab. With AI race at full speed, semiconductor hardware (NOT SOFTWARE) will become the defining strategic resource of the superpowers.
People will say oh but TSMC is better at production, but NVDA designs better chips, but AMD. We have to take a trip through the history of TSMC and its founder Morris Chang as well as the cold war.
Let's look at Morris. He went to Harvard and MIT and then stayed in the US to work for Texas Instruments for 30 years, obtaining his American citizenship in the process. 30 years is more time than many in this app have lived thus far. I'd say he's an American through and through. He was next in line for the position of CEO at TI, but ultimately because he was of Chinese descent he was turned down for the role. Now, at the age of 55, the Taiwanese government reached out to him to fund a fab company; TSMC is born.
AI will be more important than the space race and the nuclear arms race. The implications are so profound that nations are no longer cooperating to build it together and are strategically trying to limit the advancement of their enemies; e.g. blocking Nividia chip sales to China. The most effective embargo is a hardware embargo.
With national security at stake, if they didn't trust Morris to run TI, what would make them trust TSMC to be the sole provider of chips to America? And on a side note, with TSMC in Taiwan and the vast majority of chips being produced in a country neighboring China, that risk level is over 9000. China is already designing and producing their own chips with varying degrees of success. You guys can fill in the blank of what the US government fears the most. It is absolutely crucial to have production back in the US.
That leaves us with the only option, Intel. It is the only company that has a full white lineage of leadership. Real American Company as some would say.
P.S. to the haters when I shorted tesla, I covered for a 3k profit 🐻🫡
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Ultimate CELH dip to rip 🚀🚀🚀
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So an opportunity has presented itself and I want to share it with my regarded brothers. While rotating as a medical student at different hospitals across the country, one thing that was common amongst them: all doctors, residents, nurses, etc all had Celsius on tap in their hands. Compared to coffee, it tastes better, doesn’t stain their pearly whites, ver convenient, and was easy to sip on not being hot. At one of the largest hospitals in the world in Houston, Texas, they had a lounge where there was always plenty of Celsius available to keep these people working.
Point being Celsius consumption is through the roof while their stock has gone down incredibly low (-74% over the last year).
While it continues to get beaten down, I believe this provided a great chance for a bounce play, or being bought out by Pepsico, who already has a roughly 10% stake in them.
TLDR: call go boom x5 to the moon imminently,
4/18 30Calls 🚀🚀🚀
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QBTS D Wave primed for a pop?
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Personally, I think this company is in a very advantageous position. They offer both Cloud services and functional quantum computers. And they’ve shown that their quantum computing can be scaled which all but alleviates the concern of precision degradation. Intel an IBM state within the next 3 to 5 years, quantum computing will become practical. Meanwhile, Nvidia, who know absolutely nothing about quantum computing firmly stick their foot in their mouth about it. Perhaps because they are directly competing, perhaps because their stock is tanking, perhaps because deep seek made them look like a bunch of idiots, I don’t know. 😂
Yeah, I’m in anyway. I think we’re in a wedge position that is just primed to Pop. These guys are in a very good position to pick up some government contracts right now I think.
Anywho, good luck behind the Wendy’s. 🍻
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Rocket Lab is more than a meme stock 🚀
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Rocket Lab (RKLB) had a great run in 2024. After hitting a quintuple bottom at $3.47 in April 2024, it broke out of a three year bear-market and rallied 690% to $27.44 last Friday, at 12.3 billion market cap. While the rocketing stock price seems too hot to touch, the stock is just getting started.
* Electron rocket has solidified its reputation in the industry. There are only three companies capable of reusable rockets: SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin.
* Neutron is going to be the true challenger to Falcon 9, this year's maiden launch is major catalyst for the stock.
* RKLB is vertically integrated space company, capable of satellite manufacturing, rocket launch, and space system support (rocket launch contributes only 30% of the company revenue).
# Electron Rocket
The small **reusable** rocket carved a niche market out of Falcon 9. Electron cost 7.5 million (now raised to 8.5 million) per launch with 300 kg payload. Falcon 9 cost $70 million with 23 tons payload. While the cost-per-kilo is obviously worse for Electron, it is a commonly misunderstood metric. You don't buy a fraction of the rocket by multiply cost-per-kilo with your payload weight. You either buy the whole rocket, or ride-share with other passengers. Electron is like UberX, you book it at anytime, go anywhere, depart anytime, and reschedule as you wish. Falcon9 is like carpool. You wait for all the passengers to get onboard, and only leave at a time when it works for everyone.
Electron has [16 launches in 2024](https://www.rocketlabusa.com/missions/missions-launched/) with 100% success rate. Notably it launched two missions within 24 hours on Nov 24 and 25, on its **two private-owned spaceports** in New Zealand and USA. Booking an Electron rocket is easy as booking UberX for space.
[100% success rate in 2024](https://preview.redd.it/a5tu81w04aie1.png?width=1376&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebd10344389bda651c69eaf96a9849d166c76059)
[Electron Rocket standing on New Zealand launch complex](https://preview.redd.it/xz8561kb6bie1.png?width=2366&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b1abe065538711b68b9646796c7fb0a198ed67)
# Neutron Rocket
Everyone knows about Electron at this point. If RKLB were just about Electron, it would be overvalued now. But few people understand the Neutron yet. This is a medium-lift rocket comparable to Falcon 9. When it was first announced, it was scoffed at for its dull resemblance to Falcon 9. Then something amazing happened. Neutron design morphed into a **BBC rocket – a chubby, black, sexy dildo shape**. While its competitors are still trying to clone Falcon 9, Neutron has been redesigned from first principles, and ready to shock the space industry.
>It's a rocket from 2050. – Rocket Lab CEO, Peter Beck
[The \\"unexciting\\" Falcon 9 clone](https://preview.redd.it/ys7qsv4ky9ie1.png?width=3070&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c3e00d7f7516140655f36f57d8d1ca52378cec6)
[Neutron design: before vs after](https://preview.redd.it/udf1ig5xu9ie1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=7820434a993364e5029010fbd5d1b62d7970635c)
***Second Stage Rocket Redesign***
Unlike its competitors which stack second stage rocket on top of the first stage. The second stage rocket is placed inside the first stage. The tip of the rocket (fairing) opens up like a hippo mouth to spit out the second stage rocket. It comes with 3 advantages:
* The second stage is protected from aerodynamic forces. So the second stage doesn't have to be aerodynamic. It can be any shape you like.
* The second stage is protected by the fairings, which are permanently attached to the rocket Unlike Falcon 9 which discards the fairings, Neutron designed its fairing to be an integral part of the rocket for rapid reuse.
* Because other rockets place the second stage on top of first stage. The second stage is subject to compression force as the rocket goes up. Neutron "hangs" the second stage inside, pulling the second stage upward. What difference does this make: Neutron carbon fiber is much stronger under tension than compression. This makes the second stage much simpler and more fuel-efficient. Rocket Lab is the carbon fiber alchemist. They can 3D-print carbon fiber faster than Fed can print QE.
I took the summary from the video [Who wins the reusability race](https://youtu.be/Ynebk_71sxM?si=oIw-miQnUnPleC_I&t=480). It's an in-depth video that every RKLB investor should watch.
[Neutron \\"Hungry Hippo\\" fairing opening and releasing stage 2](https://preview.redd.it/mpgk5myz3bie1.jpg?width=1120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fe7d655fa9bb61ad031a5992ed7ff141dac5a179)
**iPhone Moment**
When Neutron hits the market, it will be the iPhone moment of Space. We have seen enough homogenous looking rockets stacking one stage on another, with more and more fuels. Neutron achieves better reusability (fairing) and fuel efficiency through radical redesign. It is built from first principle, ignoring what everyone else has been doing.
The radical redesign is like Apples "think different." This is not the only trait that reminds me of Apple. RKLB's obsession with vertical integration reminds me of how Apple obsesses with user experience from hardware to software. The clean, minimalistic design of the Electron rocket and the launch pad stands in stark contrast to other rockets which must launch with wired "ICU" life-support tower. Neutron takes one step further. It is designed to launch and land on its own, without any fancy structure on the ground.
[Clean & crisp Electron launch](https://preview.redd.it/jynjk528aaie1.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5076fdba6aeec0a6d4e947def84950787b98762)
**Engineering Excellence**
The market has not priced in Neutron success. It's first flight was supposed to happen in 2024 but delayed to 2025. Delay sucks but it's not uncommon in space. But it also means catalyst is still ahead of us.
Elon Musk intentionally kept SpaceX private in order to shield it from public pressure. SpaceX can blow up rockets and burned R&D cash with abandon. Rocket Lab does not have such luxury. It is under immense pressure to deliver. Their engineering track record is stellar. Rocket Lab's Electron cost 100M R&D to get to orbit and plan to spend just 300M on Neutron. Falcon rockets cost \~2.5B in R&D (excluding Falcon heavy).
Will Neutron succeed on its first try? I don't think the stock has priced it in. Even Falcon 9 had two in-flight failures and one pre-flight failure. Few people are expecting Neutron to succeed on first try. But the possibility is not zero. Electron rocket almost entered orbit on its first launch. It was aborted due to a communication glitch on the ground, causing the operator to destroy the rocket. If their engineers keep on pushing, they might deliver the biggest surprise to rocket history.
[Neutron competitor R&D cost](https://preview.redd.it/tw8b8uon4aie1.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e7c3273dc2bb35fa3726e908dd45028a0f4ca4c)
# Other DD
**Survival of the fittest:** The three year bear market hit space industry hard. The weak competitors have been shaken out. Virgin Galactic and Momentus stock prices are in the toilet. Virgin Orbit has gone bankrupt. Astra Space has been taken private after 99% stock crash. The survivors of the bear markets are the fittest.
**Peter Beck**: a humble genius workaholic. He has no college degree, got massive balls, strapped rocket engines to his bike and went full YOLO, applied to NASA, hated its bureaucracy, then quit to start his own rocket company. He was talking about how to build rocket at age 32. He's still talking about it today. He's dedicated to one thing his entire life. And at age 49, he's still full of LIFE.
[Peter Beck demonstrating the art of YOLO](https://preview.redd.it/dfol6j53odie1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d08c28ffb6953d3f5c60c8a6a5e1a719192dfecc)
**Political tailwind:** With Orange man in the House, Elon Musk as space cheerleader, and Nasa new chief Jared Isaacman who likes Rocket Lab, we are entering a very favorable 4-year term for the space industry.
**About SpaceX**: SpaceX is unquestionably the king of space. I can only say, space is BIG. It's more than enough for one company to thrive. The political detachment of RKLB is an advantage over SpaceX, as Elon's enemies are going to SpaceX a hard time sooner or later..
**Cathie Wood** sold 70,252 shares of RKLB in ARKQ and ARKX fund. What can I say? 🚀
**Jim Cramer** does NOT recommend buying. On Nov 24 last year: "'It's Not A Bad Company By Any Means, But It Is Up 305%'.". The stock was $24 back then. It went up 38% to hit all time high $33.34 on Jan 24, and has corrected nearly 20% since then. 🚀
**Investor community:** r/RKLB dip buyers are in no rush to cash out. Most of them are long term HOLDers. They are really nice people and they hate wsb fomo. They don't want RKLB to be a meme stock, but who can stop the rocket when it decides to go up? 🚀
**Technical analysis**: I have never seen a stock battling major resistance so many time so hard. Since January, RKLB has challenged and rejected by $30 eight times, each time with higher lows. A weak-ass stock doesn't challenge major resistance so rigorously. While it has been frustrating for bulls, the stronger the resistance, the stronger the support it becomes after break out.
# Price Target
With SpaceX valued at 350 billion in **private market**, Rocket Lab 12.3 billion market cap is chump change. I expect Rocket Lab to deliver Neutron, and continue its track record of engineering excellence. **A conservative 1/10 valuation of SpaceX would place RKLB at 35 billion, or $78 per share.** But I expect the share price to go much higher than that after Neutron hit the market and everyone realizes what a genius 🚀 it is.
Bears can bash me with their price-to-sales ratio and other financial metrics. That's not how you price new technology, trend, and sentiment 🚀🚀🚀. Just because it's up 700% from rock bottom doesn't mean it's too late. Good stocks go up and they keep going up. Get used to averaging up.
# Position
Brokerage account: 5000 shares, 10 leap spread strike $15/$50 expiring Jan 2026
https://preview.redd.it/dsdsi8dm8aie1.png?width=3234&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5e7414f73b1db732adc437c9b917a33a79f340a
IRA 1: 2000 shares
https://preview.redd.it/cpqewgep8aie1.png?width=3282&format=png&auto=webp&s=3802a8e869aac3983bf2153c6690bc38b0df35ee
IRA 2: 908 shares
https://preview.redd.it/oyqknxg78aie1.png?width=3208&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf02b1181afe48d91e694788ef4d06f3b0557c71
Merchandise: poster, bottle, T-shirt
https://preview.redd.it/ol9g97658aie1.png?width=1358&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bb6c9c62f99a01f04625133970eadb7d98d511d
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Why Estimates For NVIDIA's Q4 Revenue Could Be Dead Wrong: The Case for NVIDIA's Next Blowout Report
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TL;DR: Estimating NVIDIA's Q4 FY2025\* revenue from the capex of its four largest customers using linear regression results in an estimated revenue that is significantly higher than Wall Street's expectations.
*\*Note: Although it may sound confusing, NVIDIA is in fiscal year 2025 and will report its* [*Q4 FY2025 results on February 26, 2025*](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx)*.*
*This is the author’s opinion only, not financial advice, and is intended for entertainment purposes only. The author holds a beneficial long position in NVIDIA Corporation. The author receives no compensation for writing this article and has no business relationship with any of the companies mentioned. The following analysis has been carefully conducted, but numbers or calculations may be incorrect, leading to potentially incorrect results.*
NVIDIA will report its Q4 FY2025 financial results on February 26. The consensus estimate for NVIDIA's Q4 revenue is [$38.13 billion](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANOTJUpcAKXWdLKLCN4HDOw3xKM2mpDinXbx-3Ru72Xm5RtzQ8Qf0ruVaAPw61jJOwPbZHkqX9X2SRQvZJqafxEFMyTmQoFXdmxWLKJ-26YBEwQoOy5EcgpCEHOlmOzeyyZXGeSD-90RiaVAj_H8nFt0DtbA37mKFQUC-eGlN5tA). In the past two weeks, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, NVIDIA's largest customers, have reported earnings. [One of the biggest headlines](https://www.ft.com/content/634b7ec5-10c3-44d3-ae49-2a5b9ad566fa) was the announcement that these four companies plan to spend approximately $320 billion in capital expenditures (capex) through 2025:
|Year|Meta|Alphabet|Microsoft|Amazon|Sum|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2024 ($bn)|39.2|52.6|75.6|77.8|245.2|
|2025 (planned, $bn)|65.0|75.0|80.0|100.0|320.0|
Much less attention was paid to the significant increase in capital expenditures by these companies last quarter:
|Category|Meta|Alphabet|Microsoft|Amazon|Sum|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Last quarter reported ($bn)|14.425|14.276|15.804|27.834|72.339|
|Previous quarter ($bn)|8.258|13.061|14.923|22.620|58.862|
|Change from previous quarter|\+74.7%|\+9.3%|\+5.9%|\+23.1%|\+22.90%|
Since these 4 companies are the largest buyers of NVIDIA's GPUs, it makes sense to examine a correlation between these companies' quarterly capex and NVIDIA's quarterly revenue. For the last 7 quarters, we get a strong correlation coefficient of 0.95 (Pearson correlation). Now, if we use linear regression to estimate NVIDIA's revenue for the yet-to-be-reported Q4 2025 based on this data, we get quarterly revenue of $49.265 billion, which is more than $10 billion above the consensus analyst estimate.
https://preview.redd.it/fuwtgc4iv9ie1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=477315081203fddfa64c4744f2429c371c4a8041
Of course, NVIDIA's GPUs account for only a portion of these 4 companies' reported capex. However, given the recent disappointing results from NVIDIA's competitor AMD, that portion may have increased. It could also be that a lot of datacenters have been built now and these costs were already incurred in previous quarters, leaving more capex for NVIDIA's GPUs - and the newly built datacenters should now have plenty of room for the upcoming Blackwell generation. Of course, companies like Alphabet are also building their own AI chips, but they are much less cost-effective than NVIDIA's Hopper generation and especially the upcoming Blackwell generation. Or as [Amazon CEO Andy Jassy put it on an analyst call last week](https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-stock-price-87ccceac?mod=RTA): "*most AI compute has been driven by Nvidia chips, and we obviously have a deep partnership with Nvidia and will for as long as we can see into the future.*" All in all, one could assume that the share of capex from these 4 companies going to NVIDIA may have even increased in the last quarter.
In addition, there are other major buyers of NVIDIA's GPUs: xAI, for example, has also purchased tens of thousands of NVIDIA's GPUs and built the massive supercomputer [Colossus with 100,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-networking-xai-colossus). Another massive buyer of NVIDIA's GPUs has just formed with Project Stargate, which plans to invest a staggering [$500 billion in new AI infrastructure](https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/) over the next four years. All of this should continue to be a strong wind in NVIDIA's sails.
My positions: 200 NVIDIA shares.
https://preview.redd.it/j0g34hamv9ie1.jpg?width=1149&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0f3896af535ba99a9f1c040540704712323d0ef
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NKE Potential High Reward Setup with full analysis and position.
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**MONDAY UPDATE**: Monday closed at day high, above Friday's high, block trades shows institutional support the battle of 70 has clearly established it as strong accumulation support, this should gap up nicely tmr as analysts identify the trade blocks and feel more confident of entering position; could rally 2 days in a row, if we hit 74 tmr, id expect a squeeze to around 77-78, that will probably be my exit.
Position update, the 1200 calls gone up by 25% or about 20k unrealized gain, i will hold it through for a 10 bagger, also added 500 calls for this friday at 73 strike for 0.24, may exit this on Wednesday or a second impulse move regardless if it hits 78 price target or not; il be happy with hitting 75 which is the POC for the past few months.
**TUESDAY UPDATE:** right on cue we had battle of 71.5 today, bullish price action is very nice, typical consolidation, stop loss should be adjusted to 70 ish, tmr is very crucial as now the price retraced back to value low, if Wednesday we see strong volume heading back into the 72-78 range, we are in play for a surge as traders now have confirmation last friday's sell off is over reaction; the main target is 75 where POC lies, depending on if we see a strong squeeze, this will be a good level to exit, otherwise scale out between 76, 77 and 78 for this week; if the test low establishes a clear floor, this could be the rally that propels nike to 82 in couple of weeks where the daily 200EMA sits at.
**WEDNESDAY UPDATE:** very strong bullish price action, consolidation at 72.5 which is the 30-min 200EMA, the short sellers came in 72.25 with large blocks, but got bought up easy, set up looking good for momentum traders to join in, tmr should be a nice gap up, as we have fully invalidated last friday's selloff, so the quick sell off range last thursday should have very little resistance, the move could be quick. Taking half of the table at gap up, likely targeting 75 for a 10 bagger, then at 77 is my best case scenario to fully exit weekly calls.
**THURSDAY UPDATE:** hoping to see a break of 73 overnight but it didnt happen, sold at open for 0.65 at 73 first short entry, cost basis 0.21, nice little 300% gain, bought in again for 0.2 at pull back to 15 minute 200EMA, held same amount of original position with 200% profit taken and saved; sold all at the end for 0.8 for another 400% gain; in total ended the day with a 7 bagger; keeping next week's 50k 74C position acquired last friday over the weekend currently at 155k, with 77-78 price target this thing will return 500k; using 30% of winning from weekly calls bought 25k worth of 73 put at 0.3 for risk adjustment as are at a crossroad of 1hr resistance, gonna end the day early and shower. Added more lotto calls at 75 and 76 small positions.
**FRIDAY UPDATE:** sold 73 puts at opening hours for 0.65 that bought for 0.3, did not take new positions for the rest of the day, as again we did not break the resistance overnight, so yesterday's high is the ranging target, seems like this week the market wants to stay building tension. Target for next week is 76.5 and 77.8, 73 should now be the floor and bullish pattern is intact.
**NEXT MONDAY UPDATE:** we have breakout with index and relative strength with Dow very nice, took 50% profit for 10 bagger, now its lotto time, bought 150 puts for intraday hedge, out for 3k profit, the action is strong (will post position screenshot if people actually wants proof). Signing off early to take the wife out, good profit for 2 weeks work, some buddies jumped on the ship, it was good ride, good luck to you all.
**NEXT MONDAY UPDATE 2**: Hit my price target, out of the positions for a nice little 500k gain. Bought protective puts to hedge (i also have long NKE positions), this week max pain is between 73 and 75, slight pullback is possible as we are near 1.5 SD of VWAP for multiple key time frames.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
I believe NKE currently presents a wonderful potentially 10 bagger opportunity with a high likelihood of seeing a short squeeze in the coming weeks; we could see the price go to 82 from 68 (extreme case), which is a 20% gain on stock.
1. Basic Long Term Support
https://preview.redd.it/t142umsdt9ie1.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=25060af42d12b18cbd72865620bf5d931f2abf9d
200-month EMA support
Basic long term support level for reference, at this level institutional actors are active as it provides clear technical reference. We are only in the first week of the month so it is left to be said if we may close above it or not.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
2. Analysis of the Price Action & Technical Setup
https://preview.redd.it/wtc29ulet9ie1.png?width=1555&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a0e09bc3a6ebbf0d63d7e58a0f41027c6a2d703
**- (Neutral Signal) Volume Profile Analysis:** currently we have a break below the 6 months volume profile value low, in English this means we had a breakout to the downside; as you may know, most breakouts fail and lead to strong reversals (ie. bull/bear traps). so now we should be asking "hmmm does this feel like a true breakout?" Nevertheless the breakdown means major funds will be alerted as most funds have protocols on alerts of new lows, so more eyes are now assessing the situation and readying to play.
**- (Neutral Signal) Extreme Volume:** the volume on Friday is comparable to earnings volume, which is almost 3 times the average volume; this is quite significant, the likely explanation is that since the price made new low, it triggers many natural stop losses for the entirety of the last 6 months. This effectively has shaken out near all "weak hands" in the entire range. The abnormal volume could signal capitulation and selling climax (see section on darkpool orders for whether the selling is controlled or panic).
**- (Buying Signal) Dark Pool Accumulation:** go to 5 seconds time frame if you can, and inspect the order blocks during the day and especially near close, you will see huge blocks at 69.50 69.00 68.70, perfect whole numbers of large size typically signal dark pool blocks, the planned manner with a tightening range is a classic bottom fishing behaviour, it generally means that the buy side is taking advantage of the extreme selling by "letting the price to come to them" in a controlled way.
**- (Buying Signal) VWAP:** price settled nicely on Friday right on -2 SD VWAP (6-months anchor from the June 2024 quarter), which is a classic technical level for mean reversion players to enter.
**- (Buying Signal) RSI:** 1-hr and 4 hr RSI are at extremely oversold levels, this coupled with -2 SD VWAP shows a powerful signal for buying.
https://preview.redd.it/u7ezp41gt9ie1.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a64d6e49b7e6b18e728e10618f78346b726cb62
**- (Buying Signal) Clean Technical Low:** the price broke below 6-months low, actually it broke 5 year low as it is only higher than the covid panic crash; at this new low, it provides an intuitive an natural area for short sellers to cover. This along with the fact that the price is at -2 SD VWAP, means we have a confluence of buying interest from mean aversion long traders, value investors, and short seller covers.
https://preview.redd.it/45kh0e5ht9ie1.png?width=1487&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c0b96c38739f8c6eae5652650a509b6b533ef7
\- (Buying Signal) Put/Call Interest: the put call interest for next week has a singular peak at 70 strike, and the ratio is 20 to 1, this is HIGHLY significant as naturally the 70 is the nice and clean floor for the range and put sellers understandable congregate at that level. As the price drops near 70, the short put will be increasing in value, and the put seller option makers will delta hedge by shorting the stock, at 70 these put sellers will have effectively completed there delta hedge, so they will no longer be compelled to do more selling (you should paste this to an AI chatbot for clarification as it can explain the concept in detail). The put sellers will not wish to sell the stock even lower as that would mean there puts will be exercised and they would rather the put be expired worthless.
If you inspect the price action on Friday, it is clear that the selling pressure sits EXACTLY at 70 (ie. where the buying attempts failed and the selling pressure brought the price down to 68.6).
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
3. Analysis on Trader Category & Trade Psychology
This section outlines the expected psychology and positioning of the major players in the market.
\- Institutional Players: Clean technical level, alerted of the new low and is aware of the nice -2 SD value area. Could be instructed to rebalance or rotate over the weekend. The technical indicators support oversold status on multiple time frames.
\- Value / Long Term Investor: the new low provides a natural place to average down for players who have more tolerance for volatility and longer time horizon.
\- Hedge Fund / Option Makers: Put sellers have finished the delta hedge, and no need to short the stock more since it is below 70; if the price rises, these put sellers will have to cover their hedge position by buying the stock back. This accelerates as we break 70 and above.
\- Short Sellers: the new low provides a natural place to cover the short positions without feeling like you missed out; short sellers also compete with each other who can close the position at the best price, as being late means you have to cover high.
\- Retail: most likely their stop losses have been taken out by the breakdown, and now they have forced capitulation. This means selling pressure has been reduced dramatically. Many people are waiting for 65, but the interest at this level is simply too obvious, and the market may have no interesting in letting the obvious deals occur. It could as well bottom at 68, and reverse, leading to FOMO of those prospect longs to buy back higher.
**All in all, we have the possibility of an interesting confluence of multiple parties nearly all aligned for "Buying" - this means strong and quick moves to the upside.**
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
4. Prediction
First few days next week we will likely see:
\- Battle of 69 & 70: the buy side is setting a controlled bottom at 69, the initial sellers at 70 are "option makers" who are not yet completed delta hedging their short put; if 70 is breached and holds, then those put sellers switches from sell side to buy side, as now they must cover their short positions. We Could see in the open a quick test of 69 as the support, if it is brough up, we will test 70.
\- Battle of 71.5: this is the volume profile value low, if the resistance is strong and LOTS of sellers jump in, this actually validates the breakdown, as the old range is rejected; so this will likely be the first major hurdle. If this breaks then we likely see a retracement from 72.5 (-1 SD VWAP) to 71.5, if 71.5 becomes support, then we likely go straight to the POC at 75 with little resistance.
\- Gap to 75: the above situations might occur on monday or tuesday, then if all goes well 75 could be a nice place to gap up to overnight, then the spring is loaded and we move quick to VWAP at 77.5, potentially overshooting to 78.
\- Consolidation at 78: this is the first level where profit takers should emerge, could be a nice place to take short term positions off the table.
\- Burst to 81-82: It is also possible for the spring move to send the price to the +1 SD VWAP level, which incidentally is also the 200-day EMA, this provides a super natural resistance and a great place to profit take all the position.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
5. Gameplan
\- If you enter below 70, set your stop loss at 68, and watch 70 and 71.5 closely. The price should bounce between 69 and 71.5 as the battle plays out, if 71.5 is breached, move your stop loss to 70. Now you are in guaranteed profit.
\- If you enter later, set your entry near 71.5 after the successful breach, the price should retest that level to validate the fact that the volume profile range is still in play, set your stop loss at 70.
\- If we have breached 71.5 then a reversal is almost inevitable as the shorts on Friday are absolutely trapped and shorts from 78 to 72 are getting nervous, and potentially looking to cover. Now you should be considering exit strategies at 75, 78 and 81.
\- For call buyers i recommend buying some 74C expiring in 2-3 weeks, as most short squeezes complete in 4-10 trading days. You could also consider buy weekly put at 70 when the price tests 71.5 as a hedge for continued breakdown.
\- If all goes well, your 74C could be netting 5 to 10 to 20 times return (depending on the degree of the squeeze).
I hope someone finds this post interesting, good luck boy!
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
6. Position
https://preview.redd.it/ky17kalrt9ie1.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=d835b5c577587f493c8805b96c087459db050b31
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Bullish on $RDDT
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[RDDT Holdings \(Sold and Re-entered during some occasional dips\)](https://preview.redd.it/xkkht9oe9vhe1.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=513129307cc5aa993ff40c281b375306647e3832)
Listen up! RDDT is my ride-or-die play. This ain’t just another meme stock. This baby is primed to print tendies. Reddit’s got an army of degens fueling engagement 24/7. You’re literally reading this on Reddit right now. Every second you scroll, they’re printing ad revenue off your smooth brain. You’re the product, my guy. If that ain’t bullish, I don’t know what is. Ad revenue is ready to skyrocket, and their data is a goldmine for AI. Monetization is just getting started.
Oh, and here’s another reason: **Sam "Daddy AI" Altman** has been a big whale in RDDT since day one, having a 9% ownership around the IPO. The guy runs OpenAI and knows the future’s all about integrating content with machine learning. He’s not here to take L’s. This is long-term diamond hands material. Altman’s got Reddit tied into ChatGPT and the whole future data ecosystem.
It's 🚀🚀 straight to the moon.
**Disclaimer**: I am currently holding \~140 shares of RDDT, valued at about $31,600 at the time of this post.
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm)
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/openai-s-altman-listed-as-major-reddit-shareholder-in-ipo-filing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/openai-s-altman-listed-as-major-reddit-shareholder-in-ipo-filing)
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$LUNR DD
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$LUNR DD
intuitive machines ($LUNR)
market cap: 1.7B
current share price: $18.41
52-week range: 3.15-24.95
summary:
intuitive machines is based in Houston. they are a space exploration company specializing in lunar missions and infrastructure. they design, manufacture, and operate space products and services, aiming to support sustainable human presence on the moon, offering lunar landers, communication systems, and data relay services.
2. recent news & catalysts
NASA contract award: in late 2024, Intuitive Machines secured a NASA contract valued at up to $4.82 billion to provide communication and navigation services for missions extending from earth to beyond the moon. this positions the company as a key player in lunar data transmission.
upcoming IM-2 mission: scheduled for february 26th @7pm est, the IM-2 mission aims to deploy a drill, probe, and rover on the lunar surface. think “drill, baby, drill”! except for water. this follows the successful landing of the Odysseus lander, which was the company's first commercial moon landing.
partnerships: IM is collaborating with Nokia to deploy the first cellular network on the moon during the IM-2 mission. thisll cement LUNRs technological capabilities and market position.
3. financials & valuation
revenue growth: in Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of $73.07 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $45 million.
free cash flow: they have just issued their warrants at the beginning of this month which basically means they’re flush with cash. this will be reported in their next earnings on march 20th.
4. risk
delays!
plus if you really think about it,
5. bull case
cuz we’re goin to the moon mothafuckas!
see also: securing NASA contracts and successful mission milestones position then for future growth
competitive advantages: CURRENTLY THE ONLY COMPANY DOING LUNAR
EXPLORATION!! put it this way, rklb or spacex or whoever makes the rockets, and lunr helps research and prepare for human colonization. strong partnerships with organizations like NASA and Nokia.
nasa and lunr just had a conference this afternoon where lunr said they are also planning on missions to mars in the future.
6.
not financial advice.
my price target for eoy: $40
my current positions attached somewhere
(once these print i will be buying shares with the proceeds)
tldr;
lunr has proven themselves in lunar exploration, backed by major NASA contracts and successful mission milestones. they have huge growth potential, nasa, mission to the moon this month, nokia cellular.
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DD: Why I’m All In $NBIS
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Alright degenerates, let’s talk about NBIS—the AI infrastructure company that Wall Street has been sleeping on but might be gearing up for a major post-earnings rip.
This company spun out of Yandex, but thanks to all the geopolitical drama, a lot of people still don’t know what it actually is. TL;DR: It’s basically Russia’s ex-Google Cloud, now reborn as an independent AI infrastructure company based in the Netherlands. They’re competing in the high-performance AI cloud space alongside CoreWeave, AWS, and Azure—except they’re still valued like some no-name SPAC trash.
Now, let’s get into the bull case.
Why NBIS is Undervalued
1. Earnings & Growth
• Revenue for Q3 2024: $43.3M (up 766% YoY)
• Annualized Run-Rate (ARR): $120M+ as of September 2024
• Guidance for 2025: Expecting $750M-$1B in revenue
• 6x–8x revenue multiple (compared to CoreWeave’s 14.5x)
Wall Street is still pricing NBIS like a small-cap while it’s already scaling revenues like a top AI infrastructure player.
2. $700M in Fresh Funding
• December 2024: Raised $700M in a private placement from Accel, NVIDIA, and Orbis Investments at $21/share
• Well-funded to scale their massive GPU clusters, eliminating AI capex concerns
DeepSeek’s AI bubble pop made investors scared of AI infrastructure capex, but NBIS has $2.2B in cash and doesn’t need to burn another $10B to stay competitive.
3. Goldman Sachs Coverage Incoming?
• Goldman handled their PIPE deal and was expected to initiate coverage in January, but they might be waiting until earnings (Feb 20) or until PIPE investors file
• Once they drop coverage, expect institutional inflows
If Goldman drops a buy rating and earnings are strong, this thing is sending.
4. CoreWeave Valuation Peg
• CoreWeave is now valued at $29B (14.5x revenue multiple)
• NBIS is currently trading at 6-8x revenue, well below CoreWeave
• If we apply a 14.5x multiple, NBIS should be worth $15B+ today
• Current implied valuation? Sub-$9B
At a fair valuation of 14.5x sales, NBIS should be worth $60+ right now.
5. Data Center Expansion = More GPUs
NBIS is investing $1B+ in AI infrastructure across Europe and the US:
• Finland: Expanding to 75MW, housing 60,000 GPUs
• Paris: New GPU cluster featuring NVIDIA H200 Tensor Cores
• Kansas City: Launching new GPU cluster in Q1 2025, expanding to 40MW (~35,000 GPUs)
The Setup: Feb 20 Earnings = The Catalyst
• Goldman coverage likely post-earnings
• Guidance expected to confirm 2025 $750M-$1B revenue
• Market still clueless about their scale
If earnings confirm continued growth and institutional coverage hits, we could see a massive repricing.
Conclusion: This Is a Classic Asymmetric Bet
At 6-8x sales, NBIS is still undervalued for an AI infrastructure company growing 700% YoY. CoreWeave is already valued at 14.5x revenue, and NBIS should be worth at least $60+ today.
Feb 20 earnings + Goldman coverage = massive upside.
This isn’t financial advice, but I just bought a metric ton of shares.
See you at $120.
|
🚀 HAS (Hasbro) is About to Move! 🚀
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Disclaimer: I'm just a person on the internet. I have been practicing tracking dark pool and large block orders on OpenBB and Whale Stream and using it to signal moves when the open interest on a stock lines up for it. Also, I got 3 HAS 2/21 $61 call contracts at open, so I am totally biased. Still, this is why I bought them, and the best time to get in is actually soon, not when I bought them. But please take responsibility for your own decisions, and you should double check everything I'm pointing out on your own. I am not a financial advisor.
HAS stock was around $68 in mid-December and has dropped to around $59 as of today. But the recent action strongly suggests a major move is coming—and soon.
The Bullish Signals:
📌 Massive Dark Pool Order
On Feb. 5, a $16 million dark pool trade (270k shares) went through at $58.90 at 3:53 PM. The stock shot up immediately afterward at open. This looks like a buy, and big-money buys often precede major moves. Whale trades like this are usually done after hours, and in the past 1 year period there was not a single other example of a trade $15m or greater during market hours (I checked using the historical search function of Whale Stream), everything else was 4pm or later, and I know 7 minutes doesn't seem like an important difference, but the order gets processed in a completely different way and after hours orders take a lot longer for the stock price to react to. So, someone wanted to buy desperately enough to push it through in the lit market to get their order filled quickly.
📌 Huge Options Bets on Feb. 5
Also on Feb. 5, someone dropped serious money on:
8,000 contracts of 2/21 $60 calls
8,000 contracts of 2/21 $67.50 calls
This is key: This double order pattern (near the money & further OTM) is a known indicator of someone betting big ahead of news.
📌 Feb. 6 (Today) - All That Volume Converted
Today, nearly all of that volume has converted into open interest. The options chain is now extremely bullish (it already looked pretty good before), signaling a big move ahead.
📌 Earnings Are Coming - Feb. 20 (Before Open)
Expectations are low, and HAS has crushed estimates for the last three earnings reports. If history repeats, a strong beat could send this flying.
📌 Technical Setup: Retest $58.90 Before the Move Up
After a large buy, it's common for a stock to pull back as traders take profits.
The $58.90 dark pool level should act as support.
HAS is on its way down for the retest—once it touches, it should rocket back up.
📌 Price Targets?
Expecting a move above $60 soon
Potential for $67.50+ around earnings
📌 Short Interest? Not Huge, But There
It isn't as crazy as an unmentionable stock loved by kitties everywhere (you know which one, and it's at 7.9% short interest), but 3.3% is still notable, and those shorts will have to cover once HAS makes its move, adding more upward pressure.
TL;DR:
🔥 HAS is primed to move up. It will likely retest $58.90 first before taking off. The 2/21 calls suggest someone knows something, and the huge dark pool buy supports this thesis. Earnings on Feb. 20 could be the final catalyst.
🚀 Watch for the $58.90 touch—once it holds, this thing is going UP.
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BULLISH on CLSK's Earnings Today 2/6/25
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Disclosure: \~$32k in CLSK calls and \~$100k in CLSK shares between Schwab and RH accounts.
CleanSpark (CLSK) is the most heavily suppressed stock in the BTC mining industry. It has a 28% short interest due to covered callers shorting the stock. I ran numbers based on prior financials and accounted for appreciation of BTC assets based on 12/31/2024 price of $93.6k per BTC. CLSK now holds over 10,000 BTC and three days ago reported expanding beyond 40 exahash (meaning still on track to reach 50 exahash goal by H1 2025).
In December, they acquired a $650M zero interest convertible note to pay for BTC mining hardware and buy back 11.76M shares. This note was made possible under the new FASB rule. Accounting for the no interest loan, hardware depreciation, lower share count, higher income, and higher asset value, I consider CLSK likely to beat -0.16 EPS projections and actually report positive EPS. Based on ability to get financing, beat expectations, and make tons of money in BTC, I'm hoping the market takes note.
Hopefully, I'm right about this :')
Not financial advice. DYOR.
[RH Holdings](https://preview.redd.it/elq57yah9khe1.png?width=908&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d6b6f629b5add4c95ef755a843efd2ff117d9a1)
[Schwab Holdings](https://preview.redd.it/ew93icim9khe1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=62b9504978fd5f6ff8380e296bab122c1f5b677d)
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$NVDA Calls - Why I’m in
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AI demand is exploding → Everyone needs GPUs
Who sells them? NVIDIA.
Stargate plan → More AI demand → More $$$
• Earnings per share (EPS) going up, but stock is down → Opportunity
• Fundamentals remain strong, analysts are bullish
Stock has been red for the last 3 months = Potential earnings run-up
• Earnings in 20 days → Market could start pricing it in
• DeepSeek FUD = Nonsense
• “China making its own AI chips!” → Reality: DeepSeek uses NVIDIA chips
• More competition for OpenAI & Anthropic, not NVIDIA
• DeepSeek struggling to get users → Not even real competition
• NVIDIA wins.
Trump Tariffs = Bluff & Negotiation Tactic
• Trump starts extreme, then dials it back
• Market overreacting to something that may not stick
• He just met with Jensen Huang → He’ll do what’s best for U.S. companies
Amazon Earnings Tonight = Tech Volatility
• Amazon beats? → NVIDIA gets a boost
• Amazon flops? → Could drag NVIDIA down
Risks to Watch
1. Trump tariff escalation – If he goes harder than expected, sentiment could take a hit
2. China retaliation – Aggressive response from China could impact NVIDIA sales
3. Broad market downturn – If macro conditions worsen, NVIDIA could get dragged down
4. Amazon earnings tonight – A big miss could hit tech stocks short-term
5. Earnings miss in 20 days – Unlikely, but weak guidance could hurt the stock
6. Competition narrative – If media hypes up another “AI chip competitor,” weak hands could panic
Market shook for the wrong reasons
• DeepSeek isn’t real competition (they use NVIDIA chips)
• Trump tariffs likely a bluff
• AI demand still skyrocketing
My plays:
• 4x $120C (05/16) @ $12.67
• 5x $120C (04/17) @ $11.40
• 1x $110C (10/17) @ $25.87
Let’s see how this plays out 💰
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DD: Big Bear AI ($BBAI) - palantir 2.0
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I’m looking for the regardedest, lowest, humblest of you to confirm the way.
* Big brains didn’t agree when "[geneman7](https://www.reddit.com/user/geneman7/)" said PLTR bumpy revenues weren’t a concern (2022).
* Big brains didn’t agree when "[geneman7](https://www.reddit.com/user/geneman7/)" said get into Bitcoin before the wall street wave (2017).
* Big brains didn’t agree when "[geneman7](https://www.reddit.com/user/geneman7/)" said Tesla revenues were about to go parabolic (2017).
It’s true when they say Bears sound smart at parties, but the bulls make money. Ironically in Big Bear AI the bears will eventually become bulls.
So, fellow idiots, I think we have another winner and PLTR 2.0. Time to get hyped.
Big Bear AI ($BBAI): 1.8b market cap - Float 173M Short 37.4M = 21.6% SI
BBAI started as a SPAC in 2021 and besides a few spikes it was only downward trajectory. Until now, a huge spike in stock price and currently holds above the 52wk high.
Strengths:
* Innovative Technology: BBAI leverages advanced AI and machine learning capabilities to transform complex data into actionable insights, enhancing decision-making processes across various industries.
* Diverse Client Base: The company serves multiple sectors, including defense, healthcare, and finance, diversifying its revenue streams and reducing dependence on any single market.
* Established Government Contracts: [BigBear.ai](http://bigbear.ai/) has secured significant contracts with federal government agencies, providing a stable revenue stream and long-term growth potential.
* Strategic Acquisitions: The acquisition of Pangiam in February 2024 expanded BigBear.ai's capabilities and market presence, particularly in security and intelligence solutions.
Weaknesses:
* Financial Challenges: As of the third quarter of 2024, [BigBear.ai](http://bigbear.ai/) reported an accumulated deficit of $462 million, with operating cash flow remaining negative over recent years.
Now the spicy stuff:
**- Ties to Trump administration**
New CEO Kevin McAleenan is best known for his role as the Acting Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). McAleenan also was the Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Words of Trump himself: *“I will declare a national emergency at our southern border. All illegal entry will immediately be halted, and we will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places in which they came,”* Guess which company will benefit of this.
**- Pangiam acquisition = Vision AI - CHECK THEIR WEBSITE and what they are doing**
Vision AI is increasingly being used in border control
\- **Jim Cramer said no**
https://preview.redd.it/m9y19z77vhhe1.jpg?width=389&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=965a8de30fb6516b9fcdd7c42c064c054d6d800c
TLDR:
My bet is BBAI has a greater than 50% chance for growth reacceleration. Government contracts will start flowing in and airports will adopt BBAI's AI software completely.
Seeing Palantir at a 230b valuation makes me think BBAI is just getting started
None of this is financial advice. I may or may not know what I’m doing.
Positions:
https://preview.redd.it/31p4kpx9vhhe1.jpg?width=1322&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f5e0bfc039507f3fa8ad8684de0c601f4265851
And yes besides bears I also like Gorilla's
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CLSK Earnings Today and What Follows
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On 11/24/24, I called MSTR top at $422 and it dipped. From 11/8/24 to 11/21/24, I bought IREN expecting an HPC-AI update. It rallied 60% to $15.39 in a week. On 11/15/24, I bought SMCI believing extension approval likely. It rallied 138% to $44.16. With earnings tomorrow, Bitcoin miner CLSK is up next.
Don't be surprised if CLSK beats earnings, stays on track for 50 exahash by H1 2025, and further builds shareholder value with higher projected BTC per share. While RIOT and MARA copy MSTR using convertible notes buying Bitcoin at \~$100k, CLSK invested in itself using their $650M note to instead buy back shares and fund growth. 2 days ago, CLSK announced surpassing 40 exahash. Despite 28% shorts and negative EPS projections, CLSK may make some serious noise on wall street as shorts learn the hard way not to be greedy. If you're bullish on Bitcoin, CLSK assets and profits are going HIGHER this year too. If it matters, last year CLSK rallied HARD after beating earnings early February 2024 too.
If one invests like everyone else, one will get the same gains as everyone else. I am beyond excited to see what's coming for CLSK shareholders and Bitcoin holders in the years to come. I'm ready CLSK.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Disclosures: \~$72k in CLSK shares, \~$20k in CLSK calls, \~$43k in AMD shares, \~$1.5k in AMD calls
[Timed Buys](https://preview.redd.it/x4xpk0l7ighe1.png?width=1378&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2fdd11f087919a02142bb82d2da49afce87c5b)
[Current Positions](https://preview.redd.it/tgdzyiu8ighe1.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=4133c134e57a4eca8bee46cc8c1e7a826915b527)
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Great Time to Scoop up Some AMD!
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I believe the market is overreacting to AMD Q4 earnings, representing a great time to add some shares. Let's get into it.
**Q4 Highlights -**
* Revenue of $7,658 billion, 24% increase YoY.
* Gross Profit of $3,882, 33% increase YoY.
* Increased Gross Margin of 51%.
* Operating Income of $871 million, 155% increase YoY.
* Data Center segment revenue of $3.9 billion, 69% increase YoY.
**Full Year Financial Highlights 2024 -**
* Revenue of $25,785 billion, 14% increase.
* Gross Profit of $12,725 billion, 22% increase.
* Net Income of $1,641, 92% increase.
* Data Center revenue of $12,6 billion, 94% increase.
* Client segment revenue of $7.1 billion, 52% increase.
**My Thoughts & Interpretation of Q4 -** Looking at these numbers, they all seem pretty great. AMD posted a record year in just about every category. They continue to secure deals like the ones made with IBM in November, and with Dell in January. They also continue to innovate with new product releases in order to stay competitive. Investors simply got spooked because of the revenue miss for data centers and lower than expected GPU sales. Is this enough cause for concern? I think not. I find it ridiculous that they experienced 69% growth YoY for Q4 data center revenue, and still got wrecked after earnings, with a 94% increase in the segment for the entire year! The way I see it, they are demonstrating their ability to capture market share. Not to mention they posted record revenue in the client segment. They gave strong guidance, expecting revenue for Q1 2025 of $7.1 billion, which would be 30% YoY growth. This is all bullish to me.
**Key Financial Metrics -** Gross profit as a percentage of sales has been trending upwards for years, now sitting at 53%. This signifies good management and increasing operational efficiency. They have a very low FWD PEG of .57 and FWD P/B ratio of 3.14 representing undervaluation.
**Average 5-Year Growth Rates -** Revenue Growth = 33.91%. Net Income = 36.92%. EBITDA Growth = 65.27%. FCF Per Share = 68.86%. Working Capital = 44.21%.
**Conclusion -** I think this is a great company that is simply unloved by the market currently. They have done nothing but demonstrate their ability to innovate and compete over the years. This is a trend that I do not see slowing down. The most recent dip presents a great buy opportunity as the price will correct eventually. **At a price per share of $111, I think AMD trades at a bargain considering future growth and the overall potential of the company. $200+ is on the horizon.** \*Que Advanced Money Destroyer jokes\*
**Position -**
https://preview.redd.it/qr36cqw10ghe1.png?width=324&format=png&auto=webp&s=bab980cd9558ebd95af8077e688a751f3472a352
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NVDA Pre-Earnings DD (Sentiment and Technical) To Go with 77k Position
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Brief long NVDA thesis for earnings run-up
Fundamentals
* AI CAPEX accelerating into FY25 with hyper-scalers guidance (META, GOOG, MSFT, ORCL)
* Watch for AMZN earnings after mkt tmrw
* Don’t care if AI is a bubble; companies will keep spending in the short term
* Continued moat, industry dominance, and margins confidence per AMD earnings
* NVDA dominance strengthening
* Deep-seek is Jevon’s paradox
* Double selloff recently (Deep-seek, tariffs) gave the stock a \~15% haircut, giving room to run
* China tariffs priced in for now, Singapore an option
Technical Pre-Earnings Analysis
* NVDA always bullish, runs-up in the \~2-3 weeks before earnings
* 1Q24 – 84 to 95 from 5/1 - 5/22 earnings, 13% run
* 2Q24 – 102 to 127 from 8/8 - 8/28 earnings, 24% run
* 3Q24 – 134 to 148 from 11/1 - 11/20 earnings, 10% run
* Taking the midpoint for \~16% run up into 2/26 earnings, PT of \~143
* 4Q24 forecast run-up of 124 to 143 for \~16% run to pre-Deep-seek levels
* Intuitive to fill Deep-seek gap, reversion to mean as fear is replaced by optimism leading into earnings
Risk To Downside
* Overall further risk to downside is low
* More Trump volatility, tariffs (more market risk, can be hedged)
* Poor tech earnings (mostly behind us, trend is CAPEX to continue)
* Another Deep-seek; depends on perspective, news already expected
* Worst case stock trades mostly sideways
Constructing the Trade
* Anticipating the run-up to 2/26, we notice 2/28 calls are \~2x the price of 2/21 calls
* 2/21 calls allow us to \~2x exposure to pre-earnings run-up, lose IV increase approaching earnings
* Discount \~143 PT by \~5% gives \~138 PT for 2/21, 167% upside on the Feb25 130c @ current 3.0 price
Positions
* 300 Feb25 130c @ 2.58
https://preview.redd.it/a7f8irxehehe1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0b1eb860b2846dbe3afeb29721338726a7ca41a
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**Thesis: Why You Should Go Bullish on PayPal Right Now**
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Let’s talk about why jumping on PayPal (PYPL) is a no-brainer as of February 5, 2025.
1. **Totally Oversold**: PayPal’s stock has taken a hit lately, and it’s trading at a discount. When the market overreacts and pushes the price down, that’s a prime chance for a bounce back. Think of this as buying low before it starts to soar!
2. **Earnings Report was Fire**: PayPal just dropped some impressive earnings, showing solid revenue growth and profitability. This kind of performance usually gets investors hyped and sets the stage for a rally. If people realize how strong the fundamentals are, they’ll start buying up shares.
3. **Massive $15 Billion Buyback**: PayPal just announced a huge $15 billion share buyback. What does this mean? Fewer shares means higher earnings per share (EPS), which is like throwing gasoline on the fire! It shows that the management is all-in on boosting shareholder value, and that’s usually a recipe for price appreciation.
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Remember $PAA last year? It’s back.
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Good evening degens. About ten months ago, Plains All American Pipeline had some great DD posted here about call options and IV in the midstream space.
Some key themes were around a potential Trump presidency and favorable domestic drilling policy. The implied moves on companies like this are low because they pay out large quarterly dividends.
In Q1 of 2024 there was a sell off after the ex-dividend date followed by a rip in price that topped in April before the 4/31 ex-div date. I made some good money on that rip (posted above). A big reason why the stock price shot up was because of the gamma squeeze caused by option buying from this sub. When market makers become overexposed by selling call options, they have to hedge by buying the underlying security. That caused a surge in share price that tripled my money in a week and a half.
This time around, we need to ape into calls with shorter duration. I’ve targeted 3/21/25 expiration calls with $20 strike. This allows us to take advantage of the price appreciation over the next six weeks without worrying about the stock selling off after the next ex-dividend date on April 31st.
Target prices issued in the past month peg the stock from $19 - 24 per share. It’s my belief given rhetoric on domestic oil production and tariffs that this stock will move towards the upper end of this range in the coming months.
Cost basis on $20 strike 3/21/25 exp options are about 0.70 right now. That means the market is pricing in a stock price of 20.70 a share in six weeks, a mere 3% premium on the current price. I have strong conviction the stock will move above $21 next couple weeks. If that happens, these calls will double in value. If we get a sustained move towards $22, this would be a 3x.
Let’s gamma squeeze these market makers again. Whether you’re a Trump Guy or not, least we can do is capitalize on his policies to make some money.
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NVO earnings
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Hey lads, sorry i wish i could have shared a nice DD but i'm bad with ChatGPT.
So let's do this.
NVO will announce earnings tomorrow before the market openning and i think it's time to ride the tiger.
There is several indicator that shows how hard the rocket will go.
1) The stock is underevaluated, they are pioneer in the fat folk treatment with their best seller drug Ozempic. When people discovered that this medicine targeted at diabetus people could reduce grease from obese ones, every fat people tried to get a hand on the drug. Making the stock rise to 146$.
2) Since the competition race oppened. Eli Lilly company tried to steal the lion's share. So they try to make a drug wich seems very good, but can we trust a laboratory that are known to go in court for Bad usage of the drugs leading to people getting health issues?
I dont think so.
3) The tanking of NVO stock was an overreaction.
The investing people were expecting a 25% grease beating on fat people, but the study showed that it was "only" 22.7% tallow cut.
So everyone panicked and decide to make the stock tonk. So no real reason to assassinate a company.
3) The New NVO study from 23 january showed that the Wegovy drug is finally outperforming the expectation and is about to rock the market. But still, the stock went from 78$ to 90$ and plunged again to 81$ for no real reason.
4) The technical analysis say 2 things. The gap from 81 to 86 has been filled. So the prophecy of "you have to fill gaps" is fulfilled.
And there is another gap, from 102$ to 89$.
So if the gap filling mythology is right. We have to fill it with a good catalyst.
And what better catalyst than good earnings? None.
That's why i call for Nostradamus wisdom and say that in febuary, the stock will be above 102$.
So right now i'm 100% sure that the stock will outperform and we're on the reversal point from pasta eating to eating in a Lamborghini stock.
If you want to ride with me to Valhalla, join the train and eat the lambo.
May poor people become rich from this stock, so they gan grow big and use the Wegovy drug to lose the fat and become more rich with the sell of the drugs.
The end.
Position here. 1/3 of my whole wallet.
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The market has not accurately priced in Recursion Pharmaceuticals' (RXRX) upcoming drug presentation.
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Recursion Pharmacueticals is biotech company that claims they can use AI to develop drugs for less money, faster. They are presenting a late breaking science oral abstract session on REC-994 at the International Stroke Conference tomorrow. For those of you who (like me) didn't know what late breaking science oral abstract existed before you just read it, it's important drug information that came out recently. REC-994 is their flagship drug, and a key indicator of whether or not their claims are true or not. Biotech is notorious for its insane volatility, and when you add potentially revolutionizing how pharma works into the mix, it's only going to get even more volatile. I believe that the market has not accurately price this in. At the current prices, a 7$ put and 8$ call strangle would [break even at 8.35 and 6.65](http://opcalc.com/4lj). RXRX has moved further than that on zero news whatsoever, much less important drug results. Moreover, the IV is hovering within its usual range. So why has the market not priced this in? I have two possible explanations:
1. I'm regarded.
2. The market doesn't know recursion is going to make this presentation. There has been no news on the topic whatsoever, and the only reason I know about it is because it was a footnote on the [17th slide of their JP Morgan healthcare conference presentation](https://ir.recursion.com/static-files/0c96b530-a709-4d13-849c-5394d8571b3f). In the actual presentation they didn't mention this, so it's entirely possible most people just missed it. Recursion is also [not mentioned by name on the stroke conference's website](https://professional.heart.org/en/meetings/international-stroke-conference/programming/late-breaking-science), so you need to know that REC 994 is recursion's drug.
3. I'm regarded.
[I put 6k down on this and look forward to losing it.](https://preview.redd.it/z9h80vtop5he1.png?width=2032&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c2b4e7634cfeb987c63a5138c7c0844339b0828)
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I hold both $PLTR Palantir and $BB Blackberry. Why I'm confident Blackberry will be the next Palantir
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Ah yes, I'll say it first, "oh look, another BlackBerry thread, these always come up once every year and nothing ever happens" or "been holding BBags since $15". Well, I've been holding onto my BBags for 4 years (just as I have with Palantir) - you can check my posting history for receipts - and I'm holding for glory.
Back to the comparison. Once upon a time, Palantir was building an operating system called Foundry that Wallstreet and paperhands collectively decided could be a worthless pipedream and dropped it back to and below it's original DPO price to $6 and change.
Fast forward to today and the stock is $100 and you have Dr. Alex Karp saying this:
***“For the first time people want to partner with us, it used to be partnership meetings where it was a complete waste of time and BS just so they can say they met with us like high school dating for nerds…now, I have real partnership discussions because a lot of these people in verticals have to deliver and are under a lot of pressure and know how good our products are”. - Alex Karp***
\----------------
Now lets compare this to BlackBerry with a short little history lesson. Okay, a super short history lesson. Forget their phones ever existed - they acquired a company called QNX in 2010 and have since been the de facto **OPERATING SYSTEM** for most cars not named Tesla and are in 24/25 EV's that are becoming increasingly complex and data driven (they also have a significant presence in the growing medical devices field and soon to be robotics field as well, which are gravy on top of the cherry).
Palantir was head banging away 20+ years to get their operating system to be future proof (okay, admittedly I don't know if it actually took them 20 years to develop Foundry, but lets go with that) and similarly, BlackBerry has been doing the same with QNX.
Now lets read a couple quotes from the BlackBerry team about QNX.
Quote #1:
***The moat -- the competitive moat around this QNX business continues to remain very deep.***
***And to John's point, if anything, we're in a fairly strong position here that OEMs are coming to us and asking us to do more. - Tim Foote, Chief Financial Officer***
Quote #2:
***Customers are now coming to QNX for its proven safety and security credentials, which are essential in today's market. - John Chen, Former CEO***
\-----------------
Okay, now it's time for you to do some brain work and think this thought through carefully. Do you think an operating system that makes your car and whatever future car(s) you're going to buy (unless you buy a Tesla) functional and is critical for safety, is worth only 3.71 billion dollars?
What if I told you that this operating system could also be the foundation for medical devices that'll keep you alive after your 10th trip to Vegas or Thailand? Or what if I told you that it could be integral to making sure that your robot housemaid isn't stealing your girlfriend/wife/boyfriend?
The TLDR of all of this is:
Would you rather buy a McD's burger for $4 or a single share of an operating system that hasn't yet been discovered as the most secure operating system for cars and in the future, robotics and medical devices?
\------------------
My total dollar amounts invested (attached a screenshot for proof):
$BB:
Account #1 - $173,644.56 CAD (currently worth $114,615.60 CAD)
Account #2 - $128,885.98 CAD (currently worth $53,922 CAD)
$PLTR:
Account #1 - $7,553.36 USD (currently worth $52,337.50 USD)
Account #2 - $23,927.09 USD (currently worth $92,114 USD)
\-------------------
If you're wondering how, I'm an OG 2019 🦍 so don't lecture me on how I should invest 🤫
https://preview.redd.it/vzst53hd11he1.png?width=2522&format=png&auto=webp&s=de0aad5846fbcc6e01c751f99be53259f45e7908
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Short Idea (w/ Position) - Sprout Farmers Market (Ticker: SFM)
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**Position**: Posting again, with position ($15k short bet) as requested by Moderator (thank you for your support):
https://preview.redd.it/7nxxmrtkyxge1.png?width=1027&format=png&auto=webp&s=78d79580759c34db6689269a7adc1d0633314532
**Update** **#1** \- The Mexico tariffs are supposedly delayed by a month, which was the main catalyst here
**Idea**: Hear me out, with the new Trump tariffs, produce from Mexico (which is the majority of American produce) will be tariffed 25%, heavily increasing the cost of produce.
Sprouts is on a massive run (up 200% year-over-year) selling expensive produce to consumers. If the Trump tariffs stand, produce imported from Mexico will cost 25-30% more, and this is the main cost that Sprouts has, their product. The company has performed incredibly well on increased margins, but how well will these margins hold up when they're trying not to increase the cost of their goods to consumers by 25-30% immediately against last week.
Their margins could shrink substantially, as consumers push back on 30% increases to Produce, and the 200% stock run could evaporate with deep downside. These are the results that have already brought a massive upswing:
https://preview.redd.it/2m8mfw2iyxge1.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=a992c95ecb84235c9cca437b2fcca68563c42ae9
This compares to other stocks like Ford, GM, Nutrien which are already trading down on the news. Will this elevated margin really be able to sustain itself?
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Tariffs? Flight into safe Haven Assets -> Long $UUP
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Alright degenerates, listen up. We're in uncharted waters with Canada slapping 25% tariffs on $115 billion of US goods, but if history’s any guide, our safe-haven play on the U.S. dollar is rock solid. When trade wars ramp up, uncertainty goes through the roof—and that’s exactly when global investors scramble for safety.
**Remember the U.S.-China trade war?**
Despite the steep tariffs and wild rhetoric, investors piled into the dollar and Treasuries like it was a Black Friday sale. Crisis periods have repeatedly shown that when shit hits the fan, the dollar stands as the last bastion of stability. The US remains the world’s most liquid and stable economy, so when panic sets in, capital flows into it like bees to honey.
This isn’t just academic—this trade simply can’t go tits up in the sho\*t term. With Nasdaq futures tanking and the risk-off mode in full swing, a sh\*rt-term UUP call is primed for a rally. Even though we might have overbought at a slightly higher premium, the immediate flight-to-safety will likely push UUP higher if uncertainty persists. And sure, if the economic fundamentals take a hit and the Fed starts talking dovish, the long-term picture might shift—but we’re playing for quick gains here.
On the flip side, manufacturing is getting hammered by these tariffs. Industries that rely on cross-border trade are about to feel it, so puts on manufacturing for a 2-4 week horizon make total sense. The safe haven reaction in the sh\*rt term for the dollar and the pressure on industrials aren’t mutually exclusive; they’re two sides of the same coin in this trade war mess.
So, when you stack this all up: with the historical context of past trade wars and crisis periods, we’re looking at a near-term rally in UUP that’s almost a sure thing. The risk-off sentiment is undeniable, and if you’re riding the U.S. dollar wave right now, this trade simply can’t go tits up. Keep your eyes on UUP, monitor the market for any shifts, and tighten those stops if necessary. This is the play, and it’s backed by both history and the raw market sentiment we’re seeing today.
**Position: UUP 01/21 $30 Calls**
https://preview.redd.it/827yy7x9xxge1.jpg?width=1121&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d875658098c219b5dbfd5c0d2a523bfb243d0bc0
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$Grab stage 2 breakout
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**Base Formation and Breakout:**
$Grab has built a solid **2.5-year base**, a period of consolidation that often precedes significant price movements. This extended base indicates that the stock has been accumulating, with sellers exhausted and buyers stepping in.The recent **breakout from this base** is a critical signal. Breakouts from long-term bases often lead to substantial price moves as new buyers enter the market, and the stock transitions from accumulation to markup.
[weekly time frame](https://preview.redd.it/vqeyv61l8gge1.png?width=2722&format=png&auto=webp&s=76a8312029ddea00c89ef55c609a81fceeb33311)
https://preview.redd.it/wzeuen5k8gge1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=f25398b42e8d59b768dc8f28a7c0ee40419391f7
**Retest and Rally:**
After the breakout, $Grab **retested the base as support and held**, followed by an explosive rally on **high volume**. This high-volume rally signals strong buying momentum and accumulation by institutional investors.The retest of the base as support is a bullish confirmation, as it shows that the breakout level has now become a strong floor for the stock.
**Retracement and Support:**
The stock retraced to the **0.5 Fibonacci level**, a common retracement level in technical analysis, and found support at the **21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA)**. This retracement is healthy and indicates that the stock is consolidating before the next leg up.The 21-week EMA is a key dynamic support level, and holding above it suggests that the overall trend remains bullish.
**Breakout of Retracement Trendline:**
$Grab has broken out of the **retracement trendline** and is currently **retesting this trendline** to confirm the breakout. A successful retest would validate the bullish momentum and set the stage for further upside.
**Technical Indicators:**
**Daily RSI:** At **42**, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the lower range, indicating potential for upward movement without being overbought. This low RSI suggests there’s room for the stock to run higher.**Daily MACD:** A **positive MACD crossover** suggests increasing bullish momentum. The MACD histogram is also turning positive, indicating that bullish momentum is building.**Squeeze Indicator:** The indicator is very close to crossing into a **positive squeeze**, which could signal an imminent breakout. A squeeze indicates that volatility is contracting, and a sharp move (likely upward, given the bullish setup) could follow.**Volume Analysis:** The latest pullback has seen **declining volume**, a positive signal that selling pressure is waning. This suggests that the pullback is likely a consolidation phase rather than a reversal.
[Daily timeframe](https://preview.redd.it/nwwkitmn8gge1.png?width=2724&format=png&auto=webp&s=faeec0fc619db507cbc02afb410752e73d0d505f)
# Fundamental Analysis
**Balance Sheet Strength:**
$Grab's balance sheet is robust, with **free cash flow exceeding debt**. This financial stability provides a strong foundation for future growth and reduces the risk of liquidity issues. A company with strong cash flow is better positioned to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
**Revenue Growth:**
The company has demonstrated **consistent positive revenue growth since Q1 2022**. This growth trajectory is a key indicator of the company's ability to scale and capture market share. Revenue growth is a critical driver of stock price appreciation, especially for growth-oriented companies like $Grab.
**Earnings Catalyst:**
Earnings are scheduled to be reported on **February 21**. Positive earnings results could act as a catalyst, driving the stock price higher and confirming the bullish technical setup. Earnings reports often serve as inflection points for stocks, especially when combined with a strong technical setup.
Disclosure/position
https://preview.redd.it/l0vyxxjv8gge1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=89e602954a7f6385140fd474319256ac517fb904
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DD: Why I'm bearish on $DUOL's next earnings (As a Duolingo user)
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tldr: bearish short-term as I'm worried about the conversion and retention rate of key revenue driver(GenAI paid subscription), optimistic on long-term growth, Duolingo is a great app.
DD:
$DUOL has seen tremendous growth since Dec 2022, about the same time ChatGPT was announced, stock has 4x since then. The platform also boasted a 40% jump in total revenues YoY, driven by growth in DAU/MAU and paid subscriptions. There’s no doubt that Duolingo’s recent financials paint a picture of strong momentum.
Duolingo's revenue mainly comes from 3 segments, which includes advertising, in-app purchases, and subscriptions. Yet, **approximately 80% of its revenue stems directly from paid subscriptions**. This means Duolingo’s top line is precariously reliant on convincing free users to make the leap to paid tiers, which is also the reason why the stock price has rocketed given the growth in paid users. However, I'm worried about the current valuation and the growing skepticism about Duolingo’s conversion rate of the premium subscription tier, **Duolingo Max**.
* **Mixed User Feedback**: Duolingo Max was highlighted in the Sep 2024 Duocon. It's basically a higher tier subscription with additional Gen AI features, where you get to practice speaking, and understand you mistakes more easily. However, the tier costs 29.99 USD / mo, and has received not so postive feedback. I personally tried it and the additonal features are just not worth the price tag. If you go to r/duolingo, and search about Max, there has been many complaints about the Max subscription and almost everybody just hates it.
* **Conversion and Retention Risks**: I've been in the Diamond League for 13 weeks in a row, where over 50% of the users in this league are long term users with 1 year+ streak, and every week I see on average less than 15% of users are actually in the Max tier.
* **Costly AI Investment**: Duolingo could possibily have a 70M expense on R&D this quarter, and the market has had high expectation on revenue boost from the Gen AI subscription. The Gen AI investments could eat into margins. Sustaining Adjusted EBITDA margin improvements could be challenging if AI development costs continue to rise without commensurate boosts in higher-tier subscription revenues.
* **One-Time Growth Drivers**: Recent price boost could due to the Tiktok ban where 'refugees' flooded into Rednote and started learning Mandarin, I gotta say Duolingo has a great marketing team and they have done a great job. However whether they could keep the users is questionable, per my experience Duolingo is unusable without subscribing to it... (I'm subbed to Duolingo Super btw)
To sum it up, I think Duolingo will see growth in users with subscriptions, but if they don't start improving the Gen AI experience with their premium tier subscription, the ROI will be VERY BAD in the coming quarters.
https://preview.redd.it/0um6ru8398ge1.jpg?width=721&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acbced918cb0d9c984a1f860b2fd0b9c04c173e0
https://preview.redd.it/0evsxzo398ge1.jpg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64948c711c50a8293818eff90235b8f6f069174e
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DD: What is going on with China's recent developments in quantum computing?
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Google [Tianyan-504](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=tianyan-504&t=newext&atb=v452-1&ia=web). Google [Zuchongzhi 3.0](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=tianyan-504&t=newext&atb=v452-1&ia=web). Google it, right now. Who’s reporting this? China is right behind the USA in quantum computing research, and the markets don't seem to have a clue.
TL;DR: Simply put, I believe the markets have not reacted to China’s most recent advancements in quantum computing. China is potentially not as far behind the USA as markets would have you believe. I provide here a commentary of recent market movements, in relation to recent quantum computing news and developments. I follow with a more technical discussion of the significance of China’s advancements, those of US corporations.
Financial disclaimer: While I justify my comments where possible, some of the comments I make in this post are pure speculation. I do not recommend making speculative trades, such as shorting quantum computing, or buying quantum cybersecurity. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.
I was astounded to see the latest news dominating the headlines. How did the market not know that China was developing its own language-learning models? I’m a filthy casual, and even I knew about it. It’s been in our news at least [since July](https://www.marktechpost.com/2024/07/20/deepseek-v2-0628-released-an-improved-open-source-version-of-deepseek-v2/), and available for use [since September last year](https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news0905). It was pretty fucking good back then, too. And there’s Alibaba’s Qwenchat, Tencent’s HunYuan, among numerous others they haven’t even started talking about yet. What else have they forgotten, in this wild speculative bull run? They probably think the USA is lightyears ahead in quantum computing too. Oh, oh. They do.
Before you go any further, look up [Tianyan-504](https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/cas_media/202412/t20241206_893281.shtml). Look up [Zuchongzhi 3.0](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.11924). Google them, right now. They’re right there, massive Chinese developments both announced in December 2024. The Tianyan-504 surpasses 500 qubits, on par with IBM’s latest developments. And Zuchongzhi 3.0 demolishes Google’s earlier Sycamore by all key metrics. Why can’t we find any article produced by any reputable financial sources, that discuss the significance of these achievements? There is essentially zero market news about it. China is right behind the USA in quantum computing research, and the market has no fucking clue.
Check out D-Wave stock prices, for example. Given their business model relies in part on how they contribute to research in the field, they should be negatively impacted by major research developments in competing economies.
https://preview.redd.it/4iggbqnq57ge1.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5089134b48021f96baf28b66e5a7dc377b7dee7
This suggests that while Google’s Willow breakthrough rallied quantum computing stocks and Nvidia’s CEO pushed them back down, China’s developments have had zero impact.
How about Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT)? It tells a similar story. Their focus is on fabrication of photonic quantum computing components – and again, providing researchers access to quantum computing technology. It looks like Google’s Willow breakthrough rallied stocks, and Nvidia’s CEO pushed them back down. China’s developments have had zero impact.
https://preview.redd.it/e9dnfa0s57ge1.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f77fb7a50a22340541b4c426433ff210c9a7fbe0
How about IBM? News about Google’s Willow pushed their price down some 3%, which makes good sense. Willow’s performace blew that of IBM’s September R2 Heron processor out of the water. Willow is a competitor, but IBM’s position in the market means they are diversified in so much more than just quantum computing. A small bearish reaction makes perfect sense. So when Tianyan-504 reportedly challenged IBM's benchmarks just three days before Willow did, why didn’t the stock price move?
https://preview.redd.it/y6t1ik5t57ge1.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=5377770391681d2bfe3ac54d106217216c3f7feb
You can look at SkyWater Technologies (SKYT), and at Global Foundries (GFS), and Rigetti (RGTI), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), TSM (TSM), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Every one of these key companies relevant to advancing quantum computing in the Western World have one thing in common. When China announces their developments, the markets appear to stay still.
There are three possible reasons for this that I have come up with. There may be other reasons as well that I am not aware of, in which case I encourage you to enlighten me.
The first possible reason is as above: The market is generally not aware. It is likely that some players in the market are aware, and this is a simple piece of information that such players will be taking advantage of – they do not have incentive to highlight this knowledge. Furthermore, the market may be uniquely slow to react. Unlike DeepSeek, which we can physically interact with, breaking records in quantum computing research is less tangible, less sensational. Breaking news, markets are irrational.
The second possible reason is simple: China may be lying. I can not find any evidence to support this idea, and China’s past claims about quantum computing, such as those about [Jiuzhang](https://asiatimes.com/2023/10/china-unveils-faster-light-based-quantum-computer/), have been demonstrably true.
The third possible reason is that China’s quantum computers are not as technically advanced as they sound. Originally I wanted to follow with a full technical discussion about the recent history of Chinese Quantum computing, and the merits of Tianyan-504 and Zuchongzhi 3.0 in comparison to western quantum computing efforts. But since I am not a subject matter expert, and I do not have the time to write in full depth. But I will provide a bit more technical information, summarise and provide references to the academic research for relevant breakthrough technologies, so you can read for yourself.
China is fighting to lead the global race in quantum computing, and [the Chinese government has been investing tens of billions of dollars into quantum computing research](https://thequantuminsider.com/2023/04/13/chinese-quantum-companies-and-national-strategy-2023/), alongside the investments of Chinese institutions and corporations.
In 2020 [Jiuzhang, developed at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), was the second quantum computer in the world to achieve quantum supremacy](https://asiatimes.com/2023/10/china-unveils-faster-light-based-quantum-computer/), and the first photonic quantum computer to do so. Since then, the university has gone on to create further models of Jiuzhang, and develop chips with greater qubit lifetime and fidelity.
In April 2024, The Center for Excellence in Quantum Information and Quantum Physics developed their [Xiaohong superconducting chip](https://english.news.cn/20240425/a95b3c190a59486886f4cddc0def31cd/c.html), their most advanced to date, anticipated to reach the chip performance levels of main international cloud-enabled quantum computing platforms such as IBM’s Heron in key performance metrics including qubit lifetime (how long a qubit can hold its quantum state) and readout fidelity (accuracy in extracting information from qubits). I note the market did not appear to react to the Xiaohong chip either.
On the 13^(th) of November 2024,[ IBM announced their Quantum Heron R2](https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/qdc-2024), achieving their goal of running quantum circuits with up to 5,000 two-qubit gates, demonstrating advancements in in qubit lifetime and readout fidelity.
On the 6^(th) of December 2024, [Tianyan-504 was announced](https://english.cas.cn/newsroom/cas_media/202412/t20241206_893281.shtml), developed by China Telecom Quantum Group (CTQG) in partnership with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and QuantumCTek Co., Ltd., and, built on the Xiaohong chips. China is now the only country to achieve quantum computational advantage through both photonics and superconducting quantum computing technologies. This quantum computer will be incorporated into their quantum computing cloud platform, and made available for researcher purposes.On the 9^(th) of December, [Google’s Willow was announced](https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/). What makes Willow exceptional, is that it provides a breakthrough solution to quantum computing’s fidelity issue. It exponentially reduces the amount of error while adding more qubits. Presumably Willow can now be scaled further, and I expect to see further developments with adding more qubits now that this challenge has been solved.
Two weeks later, on the 16^(th) of December 2024, an entirely separate research team with the China Telecom Quantum Group (CTQG) in partnership with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and QuantumCTek Co., Ltd. [announced their Zuchongzhi 3.0](https://arxiv.org/html/2412.11924v1#S1). This superconducting quantum computer makes numerous advancements, and demonstrates quantum advantage through speed. It crushes benchmarks set by Google’s older Sycamore - “Compared to Google’s latest experiment, SYC-67 and SYC-70 the classical simulation cost of our 83-qubit, 32-cycle experiment is six orders of magnitude higher.” Though Zuchongzhi 3.0 does not demonstrate the error correction capability that Willow does, their creators have commented that they believe they can replicate the same techniques in a matter of months.
Quantum computing is still twenty years away from being relevant, they say. That gives lots of time for China to catch up. And from what I can understand, China is just one breakthrough away. There are other questions, such as China’s chip manufacturing capabilities, supply chains for components, that I am unable to find good information on. The US is doing what they can politically, through trade regulation, and restricting financial investment in China’s technologies. China already has the [lead in quantum communications, and potentially in quantum sensing](https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/09/how-innovative-is-china-in-quantum/). But China holds one massive advantage: it’s regime. In contrast to the American model, where corporations closely guard their own secrets from eachother, [China is claims they invest 15 billion of dollars into coordinated, cohesive research.](https://itif.org/publications/2024/09/09/how-innovative-is-china-in-quantum/) And it is showing in their results.
Each advancement that China makes in developing its quantum computing capability, ought to remind the market that there is a risk that the lead the US enjoys in quantum computing is being threatened. But look at those google search results again. Outside of technical circles, the western media simply hasn't picked it up. Look at what happened with DeepSeek. I think the markets just don't know. Investors are already anxious about their investments in quantum computing, and are starting to demand returns. Manufacturers are reluctant to scale component production, given the low demand and potential for volatility. So when the market does find out about China’s achievements in quantum computing, what's going to happen?
Let me know what you think.
Disclosure of positions:
https://preview.redd.it/qlgr3l7w57ge1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=d480c14a5164357c4a951a0033a861631ea589f8
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$ACHR: Now Is the Time for Archer Aviation with Upcoming Certifications, Pilot-only Flight and UAE Confidence of 2025 Commercial Launch
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This is going to be an amazing 2025 for Archer Aviation with upcoming catalysts that I will list below. Also, today Archer's Chief Commercial Officer, Nikhil Goal, is speaking today about upcoming KEY milestones for Archer Aviation heading into the print.
**TLDR**: Archer's earnings call is slated for February 24, 2025 after hours. This will mark the an action packed news cycle leading right up the UAE 2025 commercialization. Bonus! There is a credible "rumor" but is pure speculation that Archer will begin piloted flight demonstrations on February 14, 2024 which is a couple weeks away. This rumor comes from a reddit post what some believe is the wife of an Archer employee which she deleted shortly thereafter but because it's reddit someone copied and wrote a plausible write up about it.
Whether that's super accurate or not we do know about some very important upcoming catalysts that are expected in the near future.
1. Let's be real, Archer has been dry on major news for a long time now. Almost 3 months since the Anduril announcement and almost a half of a year or longer since the transitions flight demonstration. This is the moment for Archer to shine amongst its peers and show why they are the leader in eVTOL aircraft both commercial and military. In today's McKinsey's eVTOL Technology seminar Nikhil Goel said, "**We will be the first in the world to launch commercial operations**."
2. The UAE is convinced that ARCHER is going to operate by late 2025 which means their guy Dr. Talib and the UAE writ large is committed to Adam and Archer's Timeline. But how do you get there? You get there by rapid certification progress happening from the US side.
https://preview.redd.it/cfer5o4xd6ge1.png?width=822&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1809e77983d81cf458962c489a141732c6026bb
Archer has taken the 5 phase process and shrunk it down to 4 phases.
https://preview.redd.it/evwd8xe1e6ge1.png?width=769&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f790a97c53c0ce3f28e028fa1ce171cea769475
https://preview.redd.it/rtwwnwm4e6ge1.png?width=817&format=png&auto=webp&s=73ca838cc60bb5ceef530386a38d9353c2da1c8f
Here is how Archer has consolidated it down to 4 phases which I believe is the combination of the Implementation phase with the Post Cert Activities phase in order to have an expedited Type Certification that can then be shown and used to the the UAE and their aviation transportation sector GCAA.
https://preview.redd.it/vt7kq9lbe6ge1.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ca145742ae5ccca3849de6e53872225c0d33e60
In Figure 2-9 you will see a process that is namely the TIA (Type Inspection Authorization). This is a critical part of the type certification that is related to the type designed aircraft that will be used to certify the Midnight aircraft and ultimately lead to its Type Certification and it's production Midnight commercial use aircraft.
What is interesting is from Archer's last Q3 earnings call this past November 7, 2024 they have begun critical parts with software and systems integrations with STAGES-1 and STAGES-2 (Stages of Involvement 'FAA') software audits completed. STAGES-3 would be the pre-TIA activity where the software and hardware go through a verification process by the FAA and this is exactly where I think Archer is currently. STAGES-4 would be the final certification review.
What this does signal to me is that Archer is primed and ready for upcoming piloted flights with a pilot-only type designed Midnight aircraft. The type certification will allow them to gain UAE approval with the GCAA allowing them to initiate commercial operations in 2025.
3. I therefore expect flight demonstrations to be imminent as there is not time to waste if 2025 is the goal. There is no way Adam is going to wait until the half or 2nd half of the year to fly midnight in a pilot-only type designed built for production aircraft.
4. I am confident that Nikhil and Adam closed deals in Davos with a premier middle east partner, Saudi Arabia and their transportation agency the GACA. These deal will be announced also in the near term in the least being by the next earnings which is only 2 and a half weeks away.
5. With all of these developments and upcoming pilot flight demonstrations I am also expecting an announcement at this upcoming earnings that Phase 3 of the type certification process has been 100% completed and they are heading directly into TIA phase 4 for credit piloted flight progression.
6. Archer will start to create small batches of the Midnight aircraft which will bring real revenues for the first time since the inception of the company in 2025.
7. Bonus: All of the upcoming Archer and Anduril military application announcements that should have greater detail throughout the year.
All of these factors and more are what I believe is a critical juncture for Archer Aviation and the eVTOL industry. Other players will benefit as well such as Joby, eHang, and Vertical. I wish BETA was public but it is private so us retail can't invest.
This is a speculative investment but it is what I believe is an excellent investment for 2025 based on news and advancements in the transportation industry. As well, the new administration has promised companies regulation priority and investment for those who spend and invest $1 billion or more in manufacturing and development in the US. Archer and Anduril fit this criteria well.
For these reasons I still am maintain a $20 - $30 price target for ACHR.
Here are my current positions in Archer + > 1000 shares and Joby
https://preview.redd.it/metngojee6ge1.png?width=1822&format=png&auto=webp&s=044969632336d9075493d55eb6740f90415a7f67
https://preview.redd.it/zz1k7xofe6ge1.png?width=1827&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea9fa226b3a607e6c491bc85c774500b295ad734
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Intel will skyrocket after earnings today (AGAIN). Here's why
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Intel reports its earnings today after the bell, and I am certain that the price will pump like last time.
I made a post last quarter predicting Intel would go up after earnings. My reasoning for this play was that the CEO at the time (Pat Gelsinger), was very active on X dropping bible quotes every day. You could just see the desperation in his tweets, and on the day he released the earnings report, God saved Intel, and nana smiled from heaven.
But just because Intel got revived, doesn’t take away the fact that Pastor Pat was a trash CEO. So he resigned (got fired) on December 1st and got replaced by these two:
[David, who has been the CFO of Intel since 2022, and Michelle, who I have no fucking clue where she worked prior to becoming co-CEO](https://preview.redd.it/bunyel1q16ge1.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3743dc87784b3e4dccabc00fb6b17691d7f5cc2)
In the past few days I tried using the same sophisticated due diligence model (scrolling their X page), but these two have a whopping combined.... 9 tweets since they became CEOs. They mostly consist of announcements written by their marketing-interns, so not that exciting.
Now look, Michelle seems like a nice lady, but we all know who is really calling the shots at Intel here. Today's earnings report will cover the period from October 1 to December 31. I know, David became CEO on December 2nd, but do you really think Pastor Pat just woke up one day and decided he wanted to step down? No, they had been preparing David for months.
But before I even scrolled through his X page, I saw something that could give all of us degens an edge over the fancy new york algorithmic quant funds:
[bro is a steelers fan](https://preview.redd.it/3bpeofcx16ge1.jpg?width=392&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8f1ca91905e2ea1a7dd44115f22fe4648ea5edc0)
So I did some research, David has been responsible for restructuring the company and shaping a better future so Intel can make a comeback. I would say he has been in charge of Intel for at LEAST 2 months before Pastor Pat resigned.
There is clear research out there suggesting that there's a correlation between the success of your favorite NFL team and your performance in the workplace. What more of a DD do you need when looking at the performance of the Steelers during this period?
https://preview.redd.it/ttiwk54x16ge1.png?width=1094&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6d91e92b59499b4e2af39277a4f1a92e8c204e9
Mfs have won 10 out of their first 13 games. I bet David's dopamine levels have never been higher, he’s more energized, more optimistic, more productive, and more motivated, and ALL THAT BIG D ENERGY spread throughout the whole company. David had to get the ball rolling. They WILL perform today.
Expectations are still low. They’re down 15% since last earnings. No one expects them to win, and who doesn’t like to root for the underdog?? Expect green fucking dildo's after the close
[For nana 🕊️🕊️☝️☝️☝️🪦🙏](https://preview.redd.it/8gpbi1ro16ge1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3797176b85ea2b9331f2c83f22c01c4d7151e15)
Positions:
[INTC 20C 1\/31](https://preview.redd.it/ahnd0lsy16ge1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7804ea3c3280ba3857492b112b0f15d01aa486c9)
*not financial advice*
edit: they won 10/13 GAMES, not MATCHES, sorry I AM A EUROPOOR
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Corsair is back on the menu, boys
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The future of gaming that rekt us all in 2021 is the future of gaming, again.
The upgrade cycle is upon us, as indicated by the Logitech report last night, which noted gaming sales were unexpectedly “near pandemic highs.” LOGI's gaming revenue was $467mm vs. est of $393mm. Adding to that is the NVDA RTX 5070 release, which if truly as powerful as a 4090 will drive a GPU upgrade cycle when widely released in Feb.
Google trends results show search interest for “Gaming PC” and “Corsair” were at their highest in years this holiday season.
https://preview.redd.it/zs9dsofo2zfe1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d17a95c4aafb8d4aafcb3ed8806edc7a7113509
In Q3, Corsair lowered EBITDA guidance by 30%, which followed a Q2 reduction in revenue guidance by 15%. This was met with analyst downgrades, which currently have an avg target price of $8.67. Expectations are in the gutter.
This is also supported by valuation, which is trawling the lows with FWD P/E at 11.3x. This is just half of the SPX’s 20x, and well below the levels we saw from this co in the past.
https://preview.redd.it/m61rfdzp2zfe1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=fde9defac77a4ac760cfab5ab07d97c757a633b6
Dislcosure: I own underlying and Feb/Mar calls. NFA DYOR.
https://preview.redd.it/66zr6nbr2zfe1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=205a14b3e594364b28f098113c9672f095dd1e8f
TLDR: The company sandbagged guidance only to have holiday sales crush forecasts. Combined with record low expectations and a potential upgrade cycle underway, Corsair will almost certainly beat when they report on 2/12.
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Nebius play
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Core business is Nebius, but have 3 other businesses too.
1. Nebius: an AI-centric cloud platform built for intensive AI workloads. Nebius builds full-stack infrastructure for AI, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms and tools and services for developers.
2. Toloka: a data partner for all stages of generative AI development.
3. TripleTen: a leading edtech player re-skilling people for careers in tech
4. Avride: which develops autonomous driving technology for self-driving cars and delivery robots.
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$MSTR the short that will keep on printing
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BTC down 2%, MSTR down 4%. Welcome to the shareholder dilution clinic where you'll learn how to ignore the flashing warning signs of shares sold ATM and how to develop diamond hands to get you through bond conversion redemptions that further dilute shareholder equity.
Special guests will include the Fan Bois, who will teach you how to ignore basic fundamentals and to worship a dotcom era clown that Wall St. shunned for 20 years.
The True Believers will hold a masterclass on how to HODL through endless dilution, chanting "laser eyes" while their equity evaporates. In the breakout session, you'll learn advanced coping strategies like blaming "FUD", market makers and short sellers whenever your shares go down.
For the grand finale, the Cult of the Clown will host a fireside chat titled: "In Debt We Trust: Leveraging Hope and Hype to Build an Empire." Free snacks include hopium, confirmation bias, and Kool-Aid.
If you like free money, short this thing at any retest of highs in the 3 month descending channel.
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$MGNI Part 2: Why DOJ vs. Google Could Be a Multi-Bagger Opportunity
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Glad you all enjoyed my [MGNI DD last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i7omel/why_mgni_will_soar_after_nflxs_blowout_earnings/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button). This afternoon, I did a deeper dive on a catalyst on the horizon that almost no one is takling about. I actually didn't discover this myself until a discussion that stemmed from the comments last week, where a commentor asked about other catalysts that may benefit the stock and I began digging into it.
So, here it is:
**The DOJ vs. Google: What’s Happening**
The DOJ’s antitrust case against Google is moving quickly, and 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. With remedies for both the search monopoly and ad tech trials expected to roll out in the first half of the year, Magnite (MGNI) stands to benefit from a major industry shift that should absolutely factor into the investment thesis.
The DOJ’s antitrust efforts have gained significant traction, beginning with their landmark win in the search monopoly trial in August 2024. The court ruled that Google held an illegal monopoly in search and text ads, with evidence of document destruction and exclusionary practices further damaging their defense.
[‘Google Is a Monopolist,’ Judge Rules in Landmark Antitrust Case](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/technology/google-antitrust-ruling.html)
**As a result, the upcoming remedies—expected in first half of 2025—could include:**
• Ending Default Search Agreements, Divesting Chrome or Android, Mandating Data Sharing, etc.
Meanwhile, the DOJ’s ad tech trial, which concluded in late 2024, focuses specifically on Google’s dominance of the sell-side ad market. Google controls 85% of ad auctions through its Ad Manager platform, with a monopolistic 20% take rate compared to an industry average of 10%. The remedies for this case, expected in Q1/Q2 2025, could force Google to divest key ad tech assets or cap their take rates, disrupting their long-held dominance.
**Why MGNI is a Top Beneficiary from the Google Antitrust Case**
Magnite already has a strong core business, as discussed in the previous DD, particularly in the high-growth Connected TV (CTV) advertising market, where they’ve partnered with major players like Netflix and Disney. However, the potential upside from Google’s antitrust challenges adds another layer to the investment thesis.
Here’s why MGNI stands to benefit significantly:
*1. Market Leadership*
MGNI is the largest independent supply-side platform, making it a natural destination for ad dollars that may leave Google’s ecosystem.
*2. Growth in CTV Advertising*
CTV advertising is one of the fastest-growing segments in digital media, and MGNI is already established as a leader in this space. As publishers and advertisers look for alternatives to Google, MGNI is well-positioned to capture that demand.
*3. Valuation Mispricing*
Even without antitrust tailwinds, MGNI appears undervalued based on its standalone business. In Q3 2024, Magnite reported a 23% YoY increase in CTV contribution ex-TAC to $64.4M, highlighting its strong position in the booming ad-supported streaming market. With $50.6M in adjusted EBITDA, the company demonstrates profitable and scalable growth. Sustained momentum in CTV could propel its market cap beyond $5B, solidifying its role as a key industry player.
A $5B market cap would value $MGNI at over $35/share.
**Why Puts on Google Are Also Worth Considering, given that the stock just hit ATH's**
If you’re bearish on Google’s ability to navigate all of this, puts could also be a viable play. The antitrust remedies could impact their core business in several ways:
• Revenue Compression – Default search agreements and high ad tech take rates have been key profit drivers. Losing these would significantly reduce margins and revenue.
• Structural Divestitures – Divesting platforms like Chrome or Android would reduce Google’s network effects and their ability to dominate both search and advertising markets.
• Behavioral Changes – Even without divestitures, remedies like interoperability requirements and capped take rates would make Google’s ad business far less profitable.
While Google has navigated challenges before, these antitrust remedies are likely to have a much more fundamental impact on their business model than previous fines or restrictions.
**Timing Matters**
As we approach February, the timeline for key antitrust decisions is drawing near, with remedies expected in early 2025. Once finalized, these decisions will likely prompt a market repricing of both Google shares and beneficiaries like $MGNI. For Magnite, the upside is clear: antitrust actions against Google could significantly expand MGNI's addressable market and accelerate growth. Conversely, for Google, the risks are increasing, as the outcomes of these cases could erode its market dominance and profitability.
It's time to place your bets ahead of these developments if you want to hit a multi-bagger.
**TL;DR**
Magnite’s strong core business already supports a bullish investment case, but the DOJ’s antitrust actions against Google provide a massive additional catalyst. If remedies play out as expected in 2025, MGNI stock may even find its way back to ATHs, while some of you might consider puts on Google as an alternative play.
If you have other questions on $MGNI, there is a lot of info that can be found in the post and comments of the [previous DD from last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i7omel/why_mgni_will_soar_after_nflxs_blowout_earnings/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button).
**Position:** Still the same; 6,330 shares of $MGNI and will add to my position on any weakness in the broader market.
https://preview.redd.it/juv6kxioiffe1.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e9623c4a2fe2cb0b28d7dfb650313306bae2bc4
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DD: UiPath ($PATH) - Mispriced and Misunderstood
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I’m looking for the regardedest, lowest, humblest of you to confirm the way.
* Big brains didn’t agree when I said PLTR bumpy revenues weren’t a concern (2022).
* Big brains didn’t agree when I said get into Bitcoin before the wall street wave (2017).
* Big brains didn’t agree when I said Tesla revenues were about to go parabolic (2017).
It’s true when they say Bears sound smart at parties, but the bulls make money. Big brains are too smart for their own good, blowing up fears in their minds.
Why do I even posts? Selfishly, to have a record (Reddit post history) of being right. I love looking back and saying yep, yep, yep and laughing at big brains while wiping my ass with cash. I didn’t go to Harvard or work for a big firm. I have a chip on my shoulder and I’m here to outclass them all.
So, fellow idiots, I think we have another winner. Time to get hyped.
UiPath ($PATH) $13.86 ($7.617B Market Cap).
**Big brains claim RPA is dead** (https://a16z.com/rip-to-rpa-the-rise-of-intelligent-automation/)
\- Those pushing AI Agents and claiming RPA is dead are wrong. They assume AI Agents can be developed by skipping straight to step Z, when in reality, they will need to build steps A-Y. AI currently only has a brain. It needs hands and tools connected it to perform real work. UiPath has built out steps A-Y and is ready to take step Z. UiPath is in a position to capitalize on the power of Gen AI.
\- There’s a spectrum of automation applications and RPA will still make the most sense in many use cases as the most efficient tool for the job (less processing, lower costs and more energy efficient). AI Agents will have their place, but UiPath will have a system to orchestrate the spectrum of tools spanning from RPA, hybrid to advanced AI agents.
**Big brains claim UiPath has no moat.**
\- UiPath’s product is more differentiated than the market gives them credit for. The market seems to conflate all RPA vendors as interchangeable, but I believe there are nuanced and important differences between the offerings. UiPath appears to be the most robust, user friendly and an innovation leader.
Where’s their moat?
1. Network effects. They have a large install base with 10,000+ customers (easy to upsell clients),
2. UiPath is immune to vendor locking (can automate across many different software provider applications).
3. Preferred vendor/partner to major consulting companies (EY, Deloitte, Accenture).
4. Existing partnerships with major software companies gives UiPath exposure to potential new customers.
5. UiPath has a large base of experienced RPA developers that prefer to use UiPath and who are likely to recommend it where they go.
6. Founder led. Founder is a product focused engineer, not a career executive playing politics in a bureaucracy. This allows UiPath to be nimbler and seize market opportunities as they arise.
**Big brains claim UiPath’s growth story is over.**
\- Gen AI can have a similar effect on UiPath as it did on Palantir and their AIP product. Gen AI will make the existing UiPath platform exponentially more powerful, meaning more and higher value use cases. As UiPath AI agent use cases are shared with the world, their sales will accelerate.
**Big brains have beaten this stock to death.**
\- This stock is down from all time highs at $85.12/share in 2021 to less than $14/share today.
\- Big brains seem to be discounting UiPath’s potential at a current price-to-sales multiple of 5.275x. SAAS companies can easily trade between 10-20x.
\- UiPath has $1.6B in cash and $0 debt.
\- 82% gross margins.
\- 113% net dollar retention
\- On the verge of flipping profitable.
\- Guidance from last earnings call, they said ARR is expected to stabilize and free cash flow to accelerate.
TLDR:
My bet is UiPath has a greater than 50% chance for growth reacceleration.
UiPath product differentiation will become more apparent in the future.
As UiPath AI agent use cases are shared with the world, their sales will accelerate. (i.e. similar to PLTR with AIP).
None of this is financial advice. I may or may not know what I’m doing.
Reposted with position.
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AMZN convoy on the way to delivery Tendies
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$ACHR, In Partnership With Anduril, With Potential DoD/DARPA Funding and Phase 1A Already Underway
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Archer Aviation May Be About To Deliver Its 6 Military Aircraft to the USAF AFWERX Commitment Soon Including the Reveal of its NEW Hybrid-Propulsion Military-First Midnight/Anduril Variant Aircraft. I wish you and me small retail investors could invest in Anduril. Here's your chance!
**TLDR**; The Archer Aviation and Anduril partnership is going to be extraordinary. If you’ve ever wanted to invest in Anduril as a retail investor, this is your chance! The collaboration between Archer Aviation and Anduril will bring a hybrid-propulsion aircraft capable of exacting Electronic Warfare (EW), RF/Pulsar Intra-connected multi-spread sensors and mission-critical defense applications on the front lines of modern warfare. For this reason I believe ACHR at levels that are below $10 (initial offering) is worth a much larger MCAP of between $10 - $15 Billion and share price of $27 - $30.
And, The new administration along with Saudi Arabia Investment funds have announced $600 Billion in U.S. Investment and specifically this week at Davos The Saudi investment fund announced $20 Billion with 102 signed deals specifically for aviation build out for projects in Riyadh, NEOM, and the red sea initiatives in Saudi Arabia.
Firstly, I noticed that the [new Archer website](https://defense.archer.com/) for it's [Archer Defense](https://defense.archer.com/) division. It looks super serious and in fact, when you look at this list of accomplished Generals, Lieutenant Generals, and Other Military personal it begs the question; How large, and how significant is this potential program of record with the U.S. Military.
https://preview.redd.it/yrgvvktgtyee1.png?width=2233&format=png&auto=webp&s=35fb0a1012eeedcc3049a24a96b27736f62f0765
An most interesting update, just this week, it was announced that Lieutenant General (Ret) Scott A. Howell, who left Joby recently, came to Archer Aviation as another military advisor and consultant to Archer and Anduril's partnership. Notably he left Joby 20 days prior to the Anduril partnership announcement and joined Archer 2 months later. To me that is a significant development. This plus finding what I think is the program of record is DARPA air initiative for [Strategic Technology Office-wide Broad Agency Announcement](https://www.reddit.com/r/ACHR/comments/1hyoaq5/breaking_major_news_achr_i_found_the_darpadod/) is perhaps the program Archer and Anduril will apply to.
Moreover, this quote just released this week by Lt. Gen. Howell is more proof and confirmation to what I have researched and discovered for my thesis. Archer already has begun this program of record and it's significant.
https://preview.redd.it/z92uix3jtyee1.png?width=1192&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c479e73d9f446abc9cfc4d1b8aaf786fadde416
There are 3 things on the site that caught my attention, besides the obvious amazing announcement of the partnership with Anduril.
At first glance I was thinking this was a down the road thing and that they would have to do something in "hopes" that the DoD would fund. But I think this is way more immediate and significant than what I initially thought.
1. Archer places something on the front page of their website that is very interesting. It says **"1. Rapid Development: Proven ability to quickly design, build, and test next gen aircraft within \~18 months"** So there are 2 parts to this.
First, Archer has a history of getting out aircraft in 18 months. I didn't really notice this before. But it fits like a glove. First, they announced and presented Maker in June 3, 2021 and unveiled it June 10, 2021. Literally on the 18 month nose they announced Midnight in November 2022 and presented it in November 15, 2022. After that, they completed its first uncrewed hover test flight on October 24, 2023.
From the initial Midnight unveiling literally roughly \~18 months later Archer completed its first transition flight moving from vertical to wing-borne flight, on June 8, 2024. And 2 months after that Archer delivered its first Midnight aircraft to the U.S. Air Force for evaluation under the AFWERX Agility Prime contract.
That's a lot of 18 month pacing that they seem to be really be on target for achieving. With that being said, where does all of that 18 month stuff come from? Well, look none other than a current DARPA project with Bell Textron (Bell helicopters) and Aurora Flight Sciences (Boeing). First, let's pause for a moment to look at Aurora's absolutely stunning x-plane concept drone they are building.
https://preview.redd.it/kfysmanptyee1.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6fd9d0372fd1da39a3365c65823c1ce4525f0e2c
That looks simply fantastic and will fly at Mach 0.7. But that's not the interesting part. Look at the [DARPA project programs page](https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/speed-and-runway-independent-technologies).
https://preview.redd.it/z9eulqx5uyee1.png?width=1218&format=png&auto=webp&s=45854e088972f349122db405531109cfc1d61d2e
If you're counting that time time frame is exactly 18 months! 6 months and approximately one year. What this is not explaining is that Phase 1B probably had a 6 month phase 1A which resulted in the 2 aforementioned getting the award to move forward.
So again, look at the website from Archer Defense.
https://preview.redd.it/l6hlw8cguyee1.png?width=2326&format=png&auto=webp&s=809cdf1ceb8736f23c60025d9e4cfdcd9be3bd57
If you notice on the DARPA website there is no longer any information about Phase 1A if it was there. Here's what I mean. I can't find the public listings for November 1 2023 announcements anywhere. But what I can find are clues. [Evtol.news first reported this on Dec 24 2023](https://evtol.news/news/four-companies-dash-for-darpas-sprint).
>On Nov. 1, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ([DARPA](https://evtol.news/darpa-ancillary-tactical-drone-proposer)) announced that it had selected four companies — [Aurora Flight Sciences](http://evtol.news/aurora/), [Bell](http://evtol.news/bell-air-taxi), Northrop Grumman and [Piasecki Aircraft](https://evtol.news/piasecki-ares-concept-design) — to design prototypes for a high-speed vertical takeoff and landing (HSVTOL) X-Plane.
...
**Aurora Flight Sciences announced on Nov. 15** that it is working on a blended-wing-body design for its bid for SPRINT. For vertical lift, the concept will feature lift fans embedded in the wings. In designing its SPRINT concept, **the Virginia-based Boeing subsidiary will leverage experience on programs like the Boeing X-48 blended wing body aircraft and Aurora Excalibur, a jet-powered VTOL drone.**
This brings me to [Aurora, which announced their participation November 15 2023](https://www.aurora.aero/2023/11/15/aurora-flight-sciences-to-design-high-speed-vertical-lift-x-plane).
>**Program leverages over 30 years of investment in novel VTOL and blended wing body platforms.**
>Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing Company, has been selected for phase 1 of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) SPeed and Runway INdependent Technologies (SPRINT) X-Plane Demonstration Project. This project aims to design, build, and fly an X-Plane to demonstrate technologies and integrated concepts necessary for a transformational combination of aircraft speed and runway independence. This initial award funds work to reach a conceptual design review and includes an executable option to continue work through preliminary design review.
Something that was announced on November 1, 2023 was already awarded 1A by November 15, 2023? Damn that's fast. lol. Good job Boeing! My point is, those projects aren't just push a button and get rewarded. They are arduous processes that are tailored to what can be not just awarded but what can be expected to be successfully completed.
Something that was announced on November 1, 2023 was already awarded 1A by November 15, 2023? Damn that's fast. lol. Good job Boeing! My point is, those projects aren't just push a button and get rewarded. They are arduous processes that are tailored to what can be not just awarded but what can be expected to be successfully completed.
Now, here is the juicy part. In that same [eVTOL.news](http://evtol.news/) publication I told you above. There is also this little nugget of information.
>**The SPRINT program builds on an earlier initiative, the Air Force’s High-Speed VTOL Challenge, launched by AFWERX technology incubator in 2021** (see “[Air Force Picks 11 Companies for High-Speed VTOL Program](https://evtol.news/news/air-force-picks-11-companies-for-high-speed-vtol-program),” *Vertiflite*, March/ April 2022). Of the four SPRINT competitors, three — Bell, Northrop Grumman and Piasecki Aircraft — were involved in AFWERX’s Challenge.
AFWERX - Where have we heard that name before? That's right - Archer Aviation is also apart of the AFWERX program! This is my next point from the [defense.archer.com](http://defense.archer.com/) website
2. Archer is already involved heavily in the AFWERX program.
https://preview.redd.it/cv8n7ryruyee1.png?width=2260&format=png&auto=webp&s=56ee376f428429b4c92e537d466931dc194181ca
In case that text is too small let me make it a little larger for you.
**the goal of our $148M\* deal with the air force's AFWERX program is to assess the transformational potential of VTOL technologies for DoD purposes.**
**\*Largest "up to" contract awarded by AFWERX to an eVTOL company based on publicly available information as of December 2024.**
This AFWERX Program has been around since April 2021. **To make sure we are tracking here Archer Aviation announced its intention to go public through a Special Purpose Acquisition Company February 10, 2021 and began trading on the NYSE September 17, 2021. Coincidence?** I don't know, but that is very very interesting.
Here's a report again, from [eVTOL.news about the initiation of the program Aug 25 2021](https://evtol.news/news/air-force-challenges-industry-for-high-speed-vtol).
>Air Force Challenges Industry for High-Speed VTOL
>**The US Air Force (USAF), in partnership with the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), initiated the “High-Speed Vertical Take-Off and Landing (HSVTOL) Concept Challenge”** in April (see “Industry Briefs,” [*Vertiflite*, July/Aug 2021](https://vtol.org/store/product/vertiflite-julyaugust-2021-16931.cfm)). According to the USAF’s AFWERX unit, “The near-term challenge goal is to produce an HSVTOL conceptual framework that maximizes the trade space of speed, range, survivability, payload, size, and flexibility to carry out missions across the full spectrum of conflict and political scenarios. Critical mission profiles include Infiltration and Exfiltration of Special Operations Forces (SOF) and Equipment; Personnel Recovery; Aeromedical Evacuation; and Tactical Mobility.” A key feature of the HSVTOL Challenge is the amount of publicly available information in order to encourage collaboration and “crowdsourcing” complementary ideas and technologies.
>**A total of 218 proposals were submitted entries, with 35 solutions selected for further discussion.** According to Aviation Week (“[AFWerx Challenge Showcases High-Speed VTOL Concepts](https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/emerging-technologies/afwerx-challenge-showcases-high-speed-vtol-concepts),” Aug. 3), two dozen were focused on aircraft designs (see table below), with the remaining 11 being system technologies (such as improvements to engines, materials or radars). The 35 selected responses were presented to the USAF in mid-August and may receive funding for further research, development and testing, with the potential for future procurement contracts for production and fielding. Four companies made announcements in early August that they had been selected and provided additional insights, as detailed below.
[In February 2022 only 11 survived the first cut (Phase 1) to go through the aforementioned AFWERX HSVTOL program](https://evtol.news/news/air-force-picks-11-companies-for-high-speed-vtol-program). Keep in mind this is not the DARPA The SPRINT X-Plane program but apparently it may have been the precursor program? Remember DARPA's program here notes - "**The Speed and Runway Independent Technologies (SPRINT) project** is a joint DARPA/U.S. Special Operations Command effort that aims to design, build, and fly an X-plane to demonstrate the key technologies and integrated concepts that enable a transformational combination of aircraft speed and runway independence."
* American Aerospace Engineering
* Astro Aerospace
* **Bell Textron**
* Continuum Dynamics
* **Jaunt Air Mobility**
* Jetoptera
* Piasecki Aircraft Corporation
* Transcend Air
* Valkyrie Systems Aerospace
* VerdeGo Aero
* Whisper
So to summarize because there is 2 pgrams going on at once. Only 2 of the above listed companies survived to Phase 2 in the AFWERX Challenge.[ Bell Textron and Jaunt Air Mobility reported on February 1 2022](https://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=1F5CEADA-45F0-4FED-8D44-FC4695979372).
As you see, Bell Textron is in both the AFWERX Challenge HSVTOL and DARPA SPRINT programs.
So where is Archer Aviation in all of this you may be wondering because they are part of AFWERX too right? Yes, they are but it's under a different program launched by the US Air Force way back in February 2020 also reported by evtol.news. [This program is called the AFWERX Agility Prime](https://evtol.news/news/us-air-force-moves-to-boost-evtol-development).
>**US Air Force Moves to Boost eVTOL Development**
>The service hopes to help aircraft developers get FAA certification as it weighs becoming an “early adopter” of air taxi vehicles for utility missions.
The Air Force marked the 116th anniversary of the Dec. 17, 1903, Wright brothers flight at Kitty Hawk by issuing a request for information (RFI) aimed at helping foster a new powered flight revolution — electric or hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft — eventually self-flying.
...
**Agility Prime has different funding mechanisms designed to support the extremely fast contracting and payment philosophy the Air Force believes is essential to move at “Silicon Valley” speed.**
...
**Rapid Contracting**
While many are quick to point to the Air Force engagement on the technological side, “what Dr. Roper and Col. Diller did in terms of procurement is absolutely the biggest innovation of this entire Agility Prime thing,” said Kyle Clark, CEO of Beta Technologies.
“We all think we are smart, hot sh\*ts for developing airplanes, but Dr. Roper and Col. Diller navigated a massively arcane procurement system and installed something that was fast and efficient. With all my prior years of doing stuff for the Army and for others in my prior businesses, I’ve never seen a procurement activity go that efficiently. So, in my mind, that was probably the biggest innovation and that’s what’s giving them an edge over others,” he said. “It’s a cultural thing driven by Dr. Roper that was just visionary…. I’ve gone for programs that take a year to contract. That we have received four \[Agility Prime\] contracts in just over a year is astounding,” said Clark.
From this announcement only these companies were announced in March 3, 2021.
* Joby Aviation
* Beta Technologies
* LIFT Aircraft
* Sabrewing Aircraft
* Elroy Air
Of those you can probably recognize 2 of the above names. Joby and Beta Technologies. But where is Archer Aviation?
Remember, Archer became a publicly traded company in September 17, 2021 from a previous announcement in February 10, 2021. So in March eVTOL News wasn't really aware of Archer Aviation. But boy oh boy Archer was moving FAST and EXECUTING FAST.
The first time we hear about Archer Aviation in the AFWERX program is basically [from their own announcement which was posted on Archer's website September 3, 2021](https://news.archer.com/archer-enters-agreement-with-united-states-air-force-to-collaborate-on-flight-testing). Again, tracking, Archer likes to move FAST, EXECUTE FAST, and apparently, they like to move in SILENCE. Unlike Helicopters no doubt ;-)
From that date about \~20 months later on July 31, 2023 Archer Aviation was awarded through the [U.S. Air Force's AFWERX program a record funding amount of $142 Million](https://investors.archer.com/news/news-details/2023/U.S.-Air-Force-and-Archer-Enter-Into-Contracts-Worth-Up-to-142-Million-Representing-Landmark-Investment-In-eVTOL-Technology-by-U.S.-Military/default.aspx).
AND IF WE'RE TRACKING (yes I'm tracking lol) 18 MONTHS TO THE DAY IS **JANUARY 31, 2025**.
Remember, they delivered their first test Midnight to the Air Force on August 15, 2024.
So where are those 6 aircraft? 18 months is very soon to today's date.
Look at Archer's own words:
https://preview.redd.it/05i6d1m8vyee1.png?width=1741&format=png&auto=webp&s=3741606540574c203aaaa3bdbb7ce84d9331ea0d
Where are those 6 aircraft?
On the FAA registration page for Archer Aviation, Inc we see **6** not yet registered aircraft!
https://preview.redd.it/5s74v74lwyee1.png?width=1956&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a413e737ae7c8a87782edb695fb89960221c186
WOW! If Archer pulls this off it will be a miracle amongst miracles. Adam Goldstein and the Archer Team will become eVTOL sainthood!
3. Archer's military relationship is exhibiting full tilt leadership by executing for the US military in an unprecedented speed, quality, and efficiency.
Archer not only started from behind but in my strong opinion has caught up and surpassed EVERYONE including Joby Aviation with a practical and beautiful production aircraft that is ready now. Adam has been all over the news networks basically saying Midnight is complete we are moving on to a partnership with Anduril on a major DoD project program of record. Here is Adam's News Interview.
Now, I don't know when that program will get officially announced but remember the 15 day window that Aurora basically announced after the fact that they had been selected for the Phase 1A portion of the HSVTOL SPRINT DoD program. Archer may very well be in the program.
**UNIQUELY POSITIONED TO WIN**
**RAPID DEVELOPMENT \~18 MONTHS**
If you're bragging about getting shit done in 18 months lol well those 6 aircraft should be about done.
And just look at this military brass. These guys retire early and this is what they do. They deliver connections and guidance that is unprecedented. And if they smell program winner they are going attach themselves to a program winner.
Do you see 8 highly decorated Army officers on anyone else's website for eVTOL programs? I don't see that on anyone else's website.
I think Archer not only is going after a Government contract I think they have been groomed and ready to dominate a government contract. I think they are about to deliver those 6 aircraft soon! I think there production facility in Georgia was perfectly positioned to not only build Midnight but to also build Nightfall Hybrid-Propulsion VTOL aircraft for the U.S. Military and they may have already begun the work on exactly that.
As well, I think this Anduril partnership and announcement has way bigger implications and way more information than we may realize.
Lastly, I think those 6 aircraft may actually be piloted aircraft and that is why you are seeing all of that [Flight training information in the news](https://www.vertexsolutions.com/news/article/2024/12/vertex-solutions-and-archer-aviation-complete-cutting-edge-mixed-reality-flight-simulator-for-evtol-pilot-training?utm_source=chatgpt.com).
https://preview.redd.it/og4o973rwyee1.jpg?width=1804&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=77c547efb76f92a81e8aacd22571c07392c34c5c
Now, remember, this is all speculation but in my mind it tracks. I think we are about to have a **hell of a 2025 for ACHR!**
https://preview.redd.it/seb2jlfwwyee1.png?width=2254&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb7e69992958ccde49e7138266599590ea73fd41
https://preview.redd.it/ol13wy25xyee1.jpg?width=1300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c1460f349ddbe68c390adb2f59e1228912dd0eaf
Position: I have > 1000 ACHR Shares and these are my calls so far.
https://preview.redd.it/z839kcjexyee1.png?width=1750&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2abce7035920c3bcf677cf733b886d7d589a0f0
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$SANA DD - Short & Sweet: Sana immune evasive tech has unlocked previously impossible therapies -tens/hundreds of billions of dollars worth
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SANA is the first and only one to demonstrate that cells from another person can survive in a HUMAN without immunosuppressant drugs (they literally just demonstrated this in a HUMAN a mere 3 weeks ago, see link below). Sana modified the cells in a specific way to make them evade immune rejection (they have patents on this). With Sana's tech, you can now transplant lab grown cells without fear of rejection.
Since people know how to grow pancreatic islets in the lab (insulin producing/blood sugar regulating cells), they can now implant these in patients and cure type 1 diabetes with Sana's immune evasive tech. Type 1 diabetes is a massive market alone, but Sana's tech is literally applicable to ANY CELL TYPE. Unlocks all sorts of cell therapies previously not possible. Anyone developing a cell therapy, e.g. Replacement liver tissue, blood vessels, cancer killing T cells, etc... can use Sana's tech to make sure the cells aren't rejected. The alternative to using Sana's tech is immunosuppressant drugs, but these are severely flawed and nowhere close to 100% effective - any transplanted lab-grown cells would ultimately die even with immunosuppressants. On top of this fatal flaw, immunosuppresants weaken the patient's immune system, meaning the patient can die from simple infections that a normal healthy person would survive. So Sana's anti-rejection tech is 110% ultra important and necessary for lab-grown cell therapies to survive in a patient. Also, the patients with Sana cells have normal immune systems since they don't need immunosuppressant drugs, so the patients with Sana cells don't need to worry about dying from simple infections.
Sana will make money licensing their immune evasive tech to others and/or developing the cell therapies themselves. So they have an immediate way to make money and longer term options to develop their own cell therapies for even more income. Market size is easily hundred billion plus annually for all these cell therapies, many of which aren't even currently possible (but are possible now due to Sana tech). Compare this to Sana's current market cap of $800 million, healthy balance sheet with $200 million cash, and massive money behind them in the form of the world's largest biotech investors. $SANA undervalued much? I think so.
Source: Me, a stem cell biologist and biomedical engineer working on cell therapy stuff for over a decade.
SANA announced the first demonstration of their immune evasive tech working in a human on Jan. 7, 2025 (https://ir.sana.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sana-biotechnology-announces-positive-clinical-results-type-1). Prior to this, they had done it in monkeys for up to 10 months (they just stopped the experiment after that amount of time), but this is first time it has been shown to work in a human (and their first try of it in a human as well). Photo of them transplanting the immune evasive islets in a human arm here: [https://imgur.com/a/vNoXs3D](https://imgur.com/a/vNoXs3D) It's actually a super simple/inexpensive procedure. Easier than wisdom teeth removal. The cells can be stored at a doctor's office in cheap liquid nitrogen (think special ultra cold refrigerator that's not really expensive).
Positions or ban:
Ok, here's how I'm playing it. Obviously, shares is the safest, but given the short term volatility, I've opted for mostly a large amount of short dated otm calls (see pic below). Also, this is wsb no?
https://preview.redd.it/ym5eesfcdxee1.png?width=1064&format=png&auto=webp&s=417699c776aae18fb0599cb89e32ef61133e51fb
I want a giant long term position, but given the volatility of the stock, I opted for many cheap out of the money calls. This way I don't expose too much of my capital, yet can still reap the rewards of any explosive upside. To be honest, I don't see why this stock couldn't be $10 next week, it's grossly undervalued at the current market price, but market will do what market wants to do. Within a month or two, I expect that $SANA will have either 1) taken off and ripped higher as people realize its potential or 2) consolidated at some lower price. In scenario 1) my options will have printed sweet tendies that I can let marinate long term if I choose. In scenario 2) I'll be able to establish a large share position at a lower price.
SANA will have many catalysts this year as they continue to report survival data from the cells they implanted in the first human subject, as well as from other trials using their immune evasive cancer killing T cells. The best catalyst possible would be if they announced a license agreement or some sort of non-dilutive investment that gave them a significant amount of cash upfront. To me, this seems a very real possibility. $10+ seems to me extremely likely this year.
Update: Short interest on SANA is now a ridiculous 40%. Given the value of this company's tech, you'd have to be absolutely crazy to short it.
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$ACHR 58K YOLO on Weeklies Based on Repeating Pattern Of Hinting A New Partnership
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**TLDR:** My Hypothesis is that an Agreement/Partnership/Investment with **Saudi Arabia** will be announced very soon... Leading ACHR to All Time Highs and beyond...
Ok... will be doing another Regarded Highly speculative YOLO based on the repeating pattern I'm going to mention in this DD... **Very Speculative and Regarded...** Although I was right in the past 4 ACHR Yolo posts(Mostly due to regarded pure luck with some Autistic Obsessiveness of this hidden gem) past performance doesn't mean/guarantee future results.... [Yolo1](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h7a3nj/achr_46k_yolo_expiring_tomorrow/), [Yolo2](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hc27qe/achr_1dte_355k_yolo_20_with_context/), [Yolo3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hk2psv/achr_weeklies_332k_yolo_30_with_context_and_298k/), and [Yolo4](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hpz6fi/comment/m57bc6n/).
That being said, hold my beer, and try to convince me to exit this YOLO before it expires worthless lol, but listen to me first...
**On April 26, 2024, Adam Goldstein(CEO of Archer) Tweets about his attendance in DRIFTx(Global Exhibition of Mobility Solutions) in AbuDhabi UAE...**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1783151823035187468](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1783151823035187468)
**The Next day, Archer announces that it reached an Agreement with the investment office of Abu Dhabi.**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1783467275103989931](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1783467275103989931)
**On May 14, 2024, Archer CEO tweets about hiring and recruitment in the UAE for Expansion...**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1790276973287354663](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1790276973287354663)
**A Week later(May 20), they announce a new partnership in the UAE with a new Airlines(Etihad Airways) after attending Future Aviation Forum in Saudi Arabia.**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1792518434376257724](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1792518434376257724)
**On May 29, at the same Forum, the Saudi hosts Announced that 102 deals were signed worth around 20 Billion Dollar between the participants of the different countries...**
[https://x.com/CGCSaudi/status/1795776701391081653](https://x.com/CGCSaudi/status/1795776701391081653)
**On May 30, 2024, Archer announces a new partnership closed with KaKao Mobility worth up to \~$250M with pre-delivery payments also expected in 2025... Also it's smart for them to spread the positive news to keep the momentum going.**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1796142097021755833](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1796142097021755833)
**On Nov 12, 2024, Adam announces that they finally hired a lead in the UAE office Dr. Alhinai**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1856340958406947244](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1856340958406947244)
**On Nov 27, 2024, Adam Tweets about being in Abu Dhabi with His Excellency Badr Al-Olama(A Big Shot in the UAE)**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1861805297796518279](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1861805297796518279)
**On Dec 6, 2024, Adam Tweets about the new Agreement with the government of Abu Dhabi to Launch Midnight eVTOL in 2025 in the UAE**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1865041609441898828](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1865041609441898828)
# Now For The Juicy Part...
**On Jan 21, 2025, Adam posted on twitter regarding his meeting with Saudi Arabia's Minister of Tourism Ahmed AlKhateeb**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881462726352154819](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881462726352154819)
**He also followed up with another tweet regarding getting connected with Black Stone(The world’s largest alternative asset manager) and they started operating in Saudi Arabia around 2017**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881778917494968396](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881778917494968396)
**On Jan 23, 2025, Adam gives a talk "Future of Aviation" panel at the Saudi House in Davos.**
[https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881825444640792684](https://x.com/adamgoldstein13/status/1881825444640792684)
**Yesterday, The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation posts a poster with Adam Goldstein in it stating that Saudi Arabia is supporting Global innovation in Aviation. Moreover, the CCO of Archer Nikhil Goel on X retweeted that post.**
[https://x.com/ksagaca/status/1882118561688424770](https://x.com/ksagaca/status/1882118561688424770)
# My Hypothesis?
Adam Goldstein(The CEO) has been dropping hints on X before any major announcement in my opinion. I think that **a New Agreement/Partnership/Investment** **with Saudi Arabia is to be announced very very soon, if the pattern repeats.** Took new Yolo Weekly positions for Next week.
**1000 ACHR Call Options Expiring Jan 31 at a Strike of $9.5**
[Yolo](https://preview.redd.it/els12cvp3see1.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b6b31b13baab93e8cf301fd836b9e114179c0446)
And as always, Of course, I'm not a financial advisor and am not giving financial advise. What I mentioned is very speculative and dumb gambling with a lot of luck. My past performance do not guarantee future results. Moreover, it's an opinion/entertainment post and might contain mistakes. That being said, don't copy this play as it might not work out as it's purely gambling in nature and options in general is the easiest way to get bankrupt on the stock market, so please don't lose your money.
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I have 130k call expiring in Jan
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Hopefully I don’t lose ALL of them.
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Why $MGNI Will Soar After $NFLX’s Blowout Earnings Yesterday
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So after I posted my YOLO on Magnite this morning, some of you mentioned in the comments that it would be helpful for me to drop a DD. Buckle up, my friends— why I'm long Magnite $MGNI
(Although for some reason I don’t think of them as “Magnite” in my head, I say it at Magini or Maggie because that how the ticker sounds lol)
Anyway, let me explain why I think it’s time to load the boat on shares of this company, and especially how it’s a play to cash in on the blowout earnings report from Netflix $NFLX yesterday.
# The Play: Buying $MGNI on takeaways from $NFLX’s blowout quarter yesterday
Obviously, the smart money move isn’t to wait for a stock to go up to buy it. It’s to buy when news comes out that you *know* will positively impact future earnings or another company in the sector/industry.
Magnite has been crushing it with partnerships (Disney, Netflix, Samsung, FIFA, and United Airlines are outlined below), and the holiday season being during Q4 means CTV ad spend went through the roof.
Think about it: over the holidays, what were you and your family doing? Watching Disney/Netflix? Streaming sports? Magnite powers the ads you see on those platforms. Now, they’re set to rake in massive revenue from the holiday season.
# Why Netflix's Q4 Success Signals Big Wins for Magnite 🚀
Netflix's Q4 2024 earnings smashed expectations, revealing major growth in the ad-supported streaming market—a sector Magnite ($MGNI) dominates. Here’s the breakdown:
1. Ad Tier Adoption Surges: 55% of Netflix’s new subscribers in ad-supported markets chose the ad tier, doubling Netflix’s ad revenue YoY in 2024 and projected to double again in 2025. This expands the addressable market for connected TV (CTV) advertising tech, where Magnite is the clear leader.
2. Magnite's Market Leadership: As the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising platform, Magnite already earns \~50% of its revenue from CTV and expects to grow that segment by 15% or more annually. Their platform is projected to generate billions in ad spend over the coming years, aligning with Netflix's growth trajectory.
3. Publisher Monetization Boom: Netflix’s success in monetizing its ad tier proves advertisers want premium CTV inventory. Magnite specializes in helping publishers monetize content, benefiting directly from this growing demand.
Netflix’s stellar results confirm that ad-supported streaming is here to stay, creating a massive tailwind for Magnite. $MGNI is poised to ride this wave of growth.
# Facts & Data: Magnite’s Tailwinds 🌬️
1. **$25 Billion+ TAM for CTV Advertising -** The connected TV market is exploding, and Magnite is sitting at the center of it all. They’re the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising platform, making them the key player for streaming ad monetization.
2. [**Disney Partnership**](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/23/2967786/0/en/Disney-and-Magnite-Announce-Two-Year-Deal-Renewal.html)
* Expanded to include LATAM inventory, podcasts, and live sports.
* Monetizing College Football live streams on ESPN.
* Jamie Power, Disney SVP: *“Magnite consistently scales its capabilities to meet client needs, helping us stay ahead of emerging market trends.”*
1. Note that Magnite allows brands like Disney to whitelist their ad tech as “their own,” so you might hear Disney talk about the work they are doing to build their ad stack over the next several years.
3. [**Netflix’s Partnership**](https://www.magnite.com/blog/netflix-selects-magnite-as-key-global-programmatic-advertising-partner/)
* Magnite is Netflix's programmatic advertising partner globally, which began in summer 2024.
* Sean Buckley, CRO at Magnite: *“We’re thrilled to help Netflix leverage programmatic advertising to bring their amazing content to millions worldwide.”*
1. Note that Magnite allows brands like Netflix to whitelist their ad tech as “their own,” so you might hear Netflix talk about the work they are doing to build their ad stack over the next several years.
4. **Other Partnerships from the past year**
* [**Samsung Ads**](https://investor.magnite.com/news-releases/news-release-details/magnite-strengthens-partnership-samsung-ads-power-programmatic): Powering programmatic advertising on Samsung TV Plus
* [**FIFA**](https://www.magnite.com/press/fifa-selects-magnite-as-part-of-their-global-programmatic-expansion/): Magnite supports global video advertising for FIFA+.
* [**United Airlines**](https://www.magnite.com/press/united-selects-magnites-springserve-to-power-advertising-solution-for-inflight-personal-device-entertainment/): Ads on inflight personal device entertainment, a new frontier for CTV.
* [**LG Ad Solutions**](https://www.magnite.com/press/lg-ads-renews-global-partnership-with-magnite/): Deep integration for ad-serving tech across LG’s global CTV footprint.
# Financials: A Strong Foundation
* **Q3 2024 Performance**:
* Revenue: $162M (+8% YoY)
* Net Income: $5.2M
* Adjusted EBITDA: $50.6M
* CTV contribution ex-TAC: $64.4M (+23% YoY)
* **Q4 2024 Earnings Expectations**:With the holiday season and their partnerships firing on all cylinders, expect significant upside.
# Simple Explanation: How Magnite Works
Ever watched a show on Netflix and seen an ad? That’s where Magnite comes in. They’re the tech backbone that connects advertisers with streaming services. Think of them as a digital middleman, making sure the right ads get to the right people, at the right time. For every transaction, Magnite earns a fee.
# Why $MGNI Will Pop
1. The **Netflix & Disney partnerships** will help fuel this, in addition to other recent partnership announcements outlined above. Both streaming giants are leaning heavily into ad-supported models, with Magnite’s platform as their backbone.
2. The holiday season drove massive engagement on CTV platforms. Think family binge-watching sessions and College Football bowl games.
3. Magnite’s **tech leadership** is cementing its dominance in CTV, digital display, and mobile advertising.
**TL;DR**
Netflix’s earnings yesterday made one thing clear: the future of ad-supported streaming is booming, and Magnite is perfectly positioned to capitalize. Operating in a sector with a $25B+ TAM, blockbuster partnerships, and surging CTV growth, $MGNI is a no-brainer with only a $2.3B market cap.
**Position:** I’m long like Donkey Kong—6,330 shares deep. I don’t mess with calls, but if that’s your vibe, I’d go with March calls to play the earnings pop. If anyone wants to throw up a technical analysis of $MGNI, or discuss in the comments, I’d love to see it (because I don’t understand that shit).
https://preview.redd.it/xykihfjnkmee1.jpg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=554d3dcb69f7f02747a742f4c68b4228cff3efaf
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Decoding the leaked $XP Ponzi report.
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NEWS: Yesterday afternoon a Hindenburg research short report [leaked](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/xp-shares-tumble-on-rumored-hindenburg-short-report-93CH-3822991). This appears to have been a report that they initially intended to publish, but when they made the decision to close down, was instead shifted into SEC tip-off – referenced in his farewell address: “*As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today*.”
However, in a major legal cock-up for Hindenburg, the images from the unpublished draft were available on cached versions of Hindenburg Research's Website, and from these 25 images we can see that one of those Ponzi cases was XP Inc, which is a Brazilian Investment Management company.
# The Case for a Ponzi Scheme
**Returns are too good.** One of the best ways to look for fraud is to simply looking at who is making the best returns. Funds like Gladius FIM CP IE are posting **2,492% returns** over five years while benchmarks sit at 49%. Coliseu FIM CP IE shows a similar story with **693% returns**. Unrealistically high returns are usually a red flag—especially when paired with sharp drawdowns and extreme volatility in stress tests.
https://preview.redd.it/0trki6a1zhee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8462702b4e7de331be6d6e58c81e52ed81b344c2
**Auditors are being blocked.** KPMG has issued multiple qualified or abstained opinions for XP’s funds due to missing data. In one case, **92% of liquid assets** couldn’t be verified. Either XP has terrible bookkeeping, or they’re hiding something.
https://preview.redd.it/ry2z7jl5zhee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3efd05ed8067142687bb64d3afc6b71b819b372
https://preview.redd.it/d9qugfn7zhee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=731c128e1834aa162313a2b0a5b3116f60a846ec
**Declining Inflows.** Net inflows are down **36% YoY**, and the company's reliance on market-making activity means it needs a steady stream of new money to keep the machine running. Sound familiar?
https://preview.redd.it/s83rro1jzhee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5377527b89779bc4a40bf5377b894cb39ecb0d30
**Stress scenarios** for funds like Gladius FIM CP IE show extreme volatility, with worst-case losses nearing -59%. This instability suggests that XP's model could collapse if investor sentiment turns or inflows dry up.
https://preview.redd.it/u0ygbrxe0iee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5506248aead2fa005a5e735f0a7ae4a3a29e980
**Hindenburg’s track record** with Tingo and iLearningEngines speaks for itself, and clearly they were trying to make the connection in their unpublished piece.
https://preview.redd.it/43kma6oqzhee1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5d2574d379eeb58ff3e8a88a8392a23a996502f
Position
I snapped up cheap puts, all of which seem to now be gone. still a good short though
https://preview.redd.it/0vmes7cl0iee1.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bfd59b56858ca866703d0b2769894f5f411100c
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Intel will be the surprise overperformer in 2025, starting with the 1/30 ER.
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Before I start, I want to preface this by acknowledging the memes and negative connection between intel and the one guy who lost his grandma's funds, but I genuinely believe with how low st. expectations are, combined with intel's massive sell-off these few months, Intel will skyrocket leading up/during the ER @ 1/30/2025.
# 1. Extremely heavy Investments in Manufacturing
* **Tens of Billions Invested**: Intel has invested heavily in manufacturing expansion, aiming to regain technological leadership. These investments are expected to start bearing fruit by 2026 and 2027, positioning Intel as a key U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturer.
* Now I know ya'll are gonna complain, but that's 2026 and 2027, which is a long ways out! Here's the thing, as long as (they will) Intel acknowleges their progress towards manufacturing, and the expected returns of their investments, especially under the current administration, the upside will be more or less priced in within the report.
* **Alignment with U.S. Government Priorities**: U.S. policy encourages domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, especially with the new Mango administration.
* It's pretty obvious that the current admin wants to become less dependent on foreign semiconductor manufacturing, and Intel's investments in the space PLUS mango being in power will undoubtedly be great for the stock, and I believe that's what Intel will lean into heavily during the upcoming earnings report with stellar guidance.
# 2. Undervalued Stock Price
* **Current Valuation**: Intel is trading at one of its lowest forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios of the year, at around 20.
* **Intrinsic Value**: Updated discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation indicates an intrinsic value of $36 per share, significantly higher than the current trading price of $19.82. While there may be some other factors, this suggests Intel is trading on a pretty steep discount compared to its market value, way less than other big names.
# 3. Advanced Developments
* **Advanced Node Development**: Intel is investing in advanced manufacturing nodes to close the gap with competitors like TSMC and Samsung. Success in these nodes will make Intel competitive in high-margin markets.
* I'll admit, I'm not entirely familiar with the development process of these, but I can't imagine this not being bullish for the stock.
* **Gaudi AI Chips**: The release of competitive AI chips (e.g., Gaudi 3) positions Intel to capture a share of the rapidly growing AI market.
# 4. Reduced Competition in Dual Design-Manufacturing Model
* **Unique Positioning**: Intel and Micron remain the only U.S.-based companies pursuing both design and manufacturing, while most competitors focus on design alone. This vertical integration could yield huge advantages as Intel scales.
* Again, I'm not familiar with the development of chips, but from what I could find, if Intel could pull this off in the long-run, it'll set itself in an extremely unique environment with both design and manufacturing WITHIN the United States. Would be huge for the nation-first agenda under the current administration.
# 5. Support from Geopolitical Tailwinds
* **CHIPS Act Benefits**: Intel is set to benefit from U.S. government incentives under the CHIPS Act, including grants and tax credits for domestic semiconductor manufacturing.
* Again, huge for a US-based company like Intel.
# 6. Potential Leadership Turnaround
* **CEO Transition**: A change in leadership could bring new strategic clarity and execution capability, particularly in aligning investment timelines with profitability goals.
* Though Pat was a pretty chill guy, if Intel could bring in someone with large amounts of industry experience, that's another huge upside potential for Intel. They may announce a new CEO during ER or somewhere near it, but I just can't imagine them settling with a mid-tier guy after what they've been through.
# 7. Market Share Opportunities
* **Competitor Weaknesses**: AMD and Nvidia focus on niche areas, leaving room for Intel to grow in data centers, personal computing, and automotive applications.
* Yes, this does mean that their areas would be very hard to break into, but we've already seen Intel turning around in some aspects, especially their newer desktop gaming GPUs which actually bring in surprising value for performance beyond AMD and Nvidia comparable cards.
* **U.S. Government Contracts**: Intel’s U.S.-based manufacturing advantage makes it a preferred supplier for defense and other government projects, which is yet another large catalyst for the future.
# 8. Focused Financial Discipline
* **Cost Reductions**: Intel has paused dividends and reduced workforce to save over $10 billion by 2025, stabilizing its financial position during this investment-heavy period.
* I expect to see this being reflected upon in the upcoming 1/30 ER. With a bit more cash freed up and stabilizing finances, I'm pretty confident that it'll be far beyond what the market has been pricing in which is arguably a worst case doomsday scenario.
# Conclusion
Yes, Intel does have a decent amount of debt. Yes, nana's son did lose hundreds of thousands. But it's objectively true that INTC has been beaten down mercilessly these past few months, with a 56% drawdown since the start of 2024. It's entirely possible- likely even- that this is a far overreaction, especially with INTC taking steps to improve leadership, control debts, free up cash, and invest in what's needed. Combine that with the new administration that went into power yesterday, focusing on heavy domestic production, I believe Intel will be the surprise overperformer for this year.
NFA. I hold around $10k in calls expiring next month after the ER, and I am planning on DCAing aggressively into shares to hold for a few years.
[T](https://preview.redd.it/jmpxjozifgee1.png?width=556&format=png&auto=webp&s=15c4f3a652f7e8b44bdedaaf0a9075939f3cf952)
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LUNR DD for Non-degenerates
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LUNR DD for non-degenerates
Tl;Dr: LUNR will be volatile, but will just keep slowly rising over the next decade as space missions to the moon materialize and LUNR will be one of the main companies allowing it to happen.
LUNR caught my attention last spring during that moon landing that “failed” resulting in a spectacular dump despite officials saying that the mission was a success. Sure it tipped over and it would have been nice if it didn’t, but the purpose of that launch was just to set a benchmark for landing stuff on the moon since we haven’t done in in decades. However, I did not invest then and only started tracking it.
I opened my first positions in the summer when I saw the RSI dip to literally 10 on all of the time frames, suggesting that it was heavily oversold, but as I looked into the company more and more, it seems obvious that it’s a long term winner.
You know how all of you unemployed folk keep wondering why you can’t get jobs or how all of you working at the bottom of the totem pole at work keep wondering why you’re not getting the promotions over the guys that do nothing all day but kiss ass and play golf? It’s because in the real world, the awards go to those who are friends with the people at the top.
The way these lunar contracts go is that NASA has a set amount of money to award to private contractors to build components and equipment for the moon missions (Artemis, which is an extensive follow up to Apollo and will culminate in a moon base for operations further into space). NASA doesn’t want to build everything themselves so think of these contracts as contests. Each contest is for building something new: for example, whoever builds the best rover gets to be the official nasa rover. Different companies, such as LUNR invest time and effort to building these things and then NASA selects a company out of many to win the contract, which then pays the company for their efforts and potentially puts them in favor for winning additional contracts if they prove to be a reliable company to work with.
Guess what? The LUNR guys are ex NASA. Honestly you can probably stop reading the DD here. That’s all you really need to be convinced that LUNR will win more contracts than the rest of the competition. The run from $3 to $8 was the winning of major contracts that were up in the air. The growth since then has been because they are now looking more and more likely to just become a major major partner moving forward, not just a company that won a few contracts. LUNR is going to be on e of the closest things to investing in NASA itself.
Now the major downside up until VERY RECENTLY was “so what? Government contracts? How much money can that possibly be? What if that government funding goes away?”
Regardless of how you feel about Trump and the incoming administration, his just delivered an inauguration speech where among many things, he announced that we will be prioritizing an expansion into outer space, colonizing mars eventually. The Artemis mission on the moon is the first steps to doing so, as launching from the moon or having bases either in orbit of the moon or on the moon will make missions to mars much easier due to the lower gravity. This has been NASA’s plan to mars from the start. Not only is the government funding for these moon plays not going to dry up, there’s a big chance that they’ll expand.
The best part is that this isn’t just a short term play. In the short term, the stock is very volatile so there’s plenty of money to be made buying calls when it pulls back, but this is a huge long term play as well. The Artemis missions will last more than a decade. Our presence in space will just continue and with other nations like China joining the space race, we’re going to see a renaissance of space interest again as NASA finally delivers on all its moon mission goals, and LUNR is going to be one of the major players that are getting money hand over fist to enable it.
SHOULD YOU BUY NOW that it’s already up so much? Honestly it’s up to you. It’s easier for me because I bought when it was $3 back when everyone downvoted LUNR posts claiming that it was just bag holders posting (which was probably true). Even if you lose money in the short term, this stock will eventually keep hitting all time highs year after year, even if there are violent dips in the meantime, so play options with care. Think of it as an extremely jagged stairway up.
What I would do if I were someone who hasn’t started a position: sell a ton of your other stocks. Buy SHARES with a big chunk of your portfolio. Take a small portion of your portfolio and plan on buying calls for a couple months out every time the RSI on the hourly chart hits 30 and sell a week or so after it hits 70 because it always seems to run for about a week straight before consolidating. Plan on holding those shares for years and sell for long term capital gain.
Because I’m an idiot, I sold covered calls on my shares and had I not, I’d be up 300k now, which is a big deal since that’s triple my salary.
My positions:
12000 shares at $3.65 cost basis
30 sold covered calls at 22.5c for Jan 2026 (RIP - I sold these when it was at 12)
30 sold covered calls at 25c for Jan 2026 (I expect to get exercised on these as well and I regret selling these when it was 15)
90 sold covered calls at 30c for Jan 2027 (the fact that I’m also nervous about this means that I expect it to potentially rise to this level by then as well)
25x 18c for 3/21 (I’m always putting in 10k into short term calls on dips and selling like I described above. When I sell these in a few weeks, I’ll just keep rebuying new calls on dips.)
You might be thinking “I don’t have the patience to 1.5x to 2x my account over the time frame of a year or more.”
Okay. I guess you could lose half your inheritance in a single day instead.
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Carvana - DD from a Senior Finance Manaer
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Brief background - my day job is as a Senior Finance manager at a big tech firm and I have passed all 3 levels of the CFA (not currently working as an active CFA Charterholder). The following is not investment advice.
Been doing hours of research on Carvana since the Hindenberg Research report came out. [https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/](https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/) **TLDR on the report** \- there's suspect accounting practices coming out of Carvana. Also looked through all Carvana's 10Q and 10K for the past few years and it does seem that they are turning things around. From a Wall Street perspective, Carvana is doing great. Their margins are going up, they are reducing inventory, net income and EBITDA are both consistently rising... by all financial metrics this company has turned things around.
Here's the kicker. How is this possible in an environment where used car prices are going down (https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html), their loans are over 50% subprime - deep subprime, and their only loan buyer, Ally Financial, lost 20% market cap because they said that on the auto side, their credit challenges have intensified?
It's hard for an outsider to know where to disconnect is but after looking through hundreds of pages of published financial documents, this is where I'm guessing the disconnect is.
Carvana includes the following in their proxy statements: *“The Board may approve transactions only if it determines that the transaction is on terms* **no less favorable in the aggregate** *than those generally available to an unaffiliated third party under similar circumstances”.*
This means that Carvana can not take unfavorable terms with a third party, a statement which would typically be included so Carvana cannot just pay a related vendor exorbitant amounts of money for equivalent service. However, I believe Carvana is abusing this statement in the opposite way. I believe Carvana itself is getting extremely favorable terms, especially with DriveTime (related private third party) and also the potentially related third party loan buyer per the Hindenberg report (Cerberus).
**If what I believe is happening is true, this means Carvana can sell cars and loans at a significant margin to DriveTime (CEO's dad's private company). DriveTime's internal books would look horrible but Carvana's books would look amazing.** CEO's father Ernie Garcia II has recently sold $1.4b of the company's stock. By contrast, Carvana's quarterly net income has been in the $0M - $85M range. If Ernie Garcia II uses even half of the cash generated from these stock sales, he could well cover any loss DriveTime is incurring from buying Carvana's junk.
Per the Hindenberg Research report, "A former Carvana director responsible for wholesale inventory told us: “\[Selling cars to DriveTime is\] a lever that’s not talked about. It’s kind of like Fight Club… there’s certain things we don’t talk about, and we don’t talk about DriveTime.”
**Here's the problem**. I don't have experience in legal and I don't know if what they are doing is legal or illegal. I haven't heard of anything that says a private company cannot offer favorable terms to a public company. So as long as the stock keeps shooting up, Ernie Garcia II can keep selling stock to cover the cost of buying Carvana's inventory at a premium, which will make the profit per unit look incredible in a down market.
As long as they keep doing this strategy, Wall Street analyst will see the metrics continually beat historicals and raise their price forecast, which will create a cycle that perpetuates this behavior. However, this is not an infinitely sustainable process and if this is what's currently happening, the house of cards will eventually crumble.
I feel like I have spent way too long looking into Carvana's annual filings and Hindenberg's report. Feel free to ask me anything and I'll do my best to answer with my best opinion.
*Disclosure: I own puts on Carvana.*
https://preview.redd.it/pwovtkwww6ee1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=b06fce0a62aadba69a2f68f8401e33de94aff7c3
https://preview.redd.it/dxuxo6gyw6ee1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=680449327edc5079b86c964fe7c30372b4560bee
Edit: Apparently I should work at Wendy's because I can't spell Manager correctly either.
Edit 2: There are a few catalysts that I am hoping for:
1- Ally Financial management realizes how bad delinquency rates are and cuts ties with Carvana. **Ally releases earnings on Wednesday and major news would affect the price of weeklies. I will do a full analysis on Ally's financials on Wednesday to see if I can get any more details out of them related to Carvana.**
2- New unrelated party loan buyer is exposed to be a related party causing more SEC investigation into related parties.
3- Grant Thornton decides they don't want the risk of a relationship and drops Carvana.
4- Lawsuits around Carvana expose fraud.
5- Whistleblower comes out against Carvana.
Edit 3: 2/13 - Currently holding but have lost 75-85% on all of my positions. Very sad indeed.
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Missed Quantum Computing? UFO/alien narrative may be next
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Betting $1M on BLOCK ($SQ) as a bitcoin mining play
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Jack Dorsey (dad) is the second biggest bitcoin dick rider after Saylor. The problem with Jack is that he's a low key CEO that doesn't like to be in the public eye and therefore sucks at pumping his own stock. This is where we come in. Time to shed some light on how undervalued BLOCK is.
https://preview.redd.it/0jey95tnemde1.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6fade12885ceee25efd9999c9b81868c4b9fb794
First, Block is becoming a player in the bitcoin mining space. They are developing their own chip/rig with Proto. Proto is a suite of bitcoin mining products and services designed to help decentralize the global supply of mining hardware and the distribution of hashrate. Proto works to increase builder access to bitcoin mining chips and rigs while increasing network resiliency and making everyday use of bitcoin secure and simple.
Block also has \~8,211 BTC valued at \~$862M.
TRUMP loves crypto and has recently stated he plans to designate Cryptocurrency as a National Priority. He will enact pro-crypto executive orders on day 1 (that's why BTC is mooning right now). He also stated he wants all bitcoin mining to be done in America.
Second, here is a graph of BLOCK's revenue growth vs share price (self-explanatory).
https://preview.redd.it/l3t5nfgyemde1.jpg?width=1127&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41dc53398278e88c4ba14ca451753559948a032a
Third, from a TA perspective, the recent price action has been constructive (below) and the breakout from the 2 year base should be explosive.
https://preview.redd.it/bxiefs50fmde1.jpg?width=861&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0113aa101c8263f846ff3951afdba217c99e0d6d
Not sure how this hasn't caught on as a bitcoin play when all these other shitco's that do bitcoin mining or just have BTC on their balance sheet have absolutely rocketed in the past 4 months. When the hype catches up, we should see some explosive moves up to $100+.
https://preview.redd.it/l2ihr849fmde1.jpg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b9839f9029595f7084eff9a2943f65a2b7ba1421
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From Hawley-Smoot to Soy Boy: Why I’m All-In on Puts for Tuesday
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“In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? Anyone?...
*The Great Depression, passed the...*
*Anyone? Anyone?* ***The tariff bill?***
*The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?...*
***Raised tariffs***\*, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government.\*
***Did it work***\*? Anyone?\*
*Anyone know the effects?*
*It did not work, and t****he United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.****”*
Opening Scene of Ferris Bueller's Day Off: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY)
**Inauguration of Trump Monday** is priced in, and it was priced very high in November (Expectations high). What is not priced in, is the exact outcome of the flood of Executive Orders waiting to signed on Monday. We have some hints of what they will be, but I don’t think anyone knows exactly what they will be and how they will be viewed from the market. I expect a wild ride, but I don't think the outcomes will match the predictions.
**My Speculation:**
**1. National Emergency**
Who the hell knows what it will be? Economic? Border crisis? Public health? Your guess is as good as mine. But there will be one, and the markets won’t like it. (There are [several reports](https://www.beckersasc.com/supply-chain/trump-eyes-national-emergency-declaration-to-levy-tariffs.html) on this already.) Plus Trump declared seven national emergencies last time, and another would give him sweeping powers to make significant executive order changes. **Puts on SPX OTM.**
**2. Tariffs**
I’m taking the man at his word: tariffs are coming. The specifics—what and how much—remain unknown, but most economists agree this will be bad news. Tariffs also happen to feature in the intro to my favorite movie, so that’s good enough DD for me. Long **puts on XLY** and throwing in a little **SOYB puts** as well. (Thanks, [Soy Boy](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i37uof/spilling_the_beans_on_tariffs_the_untold_story_of/).)
**3. Bitcoin (IBIT)**
I know, I know. But hear me out—Trump isn’t going to do anything to *hurt* BTC. At least not yet. There will at least be signaling of something positive (per many [news sources](https://www.investors.com/news/trump-bitcoin-crypto-day-one-first-100-days-executive-orders-policies/)). Plus, if the S&P 500 goes down, BTC believers will flock to it as a safe haven. If the S&P 500 goes up, BTC holders will reinvest their stock gains to buy more BTC. (My wild speculation is that banking regulation of BTC will be loosened, and the sale of existing US gov BTC will be halted.) Either way, it seems like Bitcoin has an upward trajectory. **Calls on IBIT.**
**4. Hedge**
If the markets tank, they’ll tank hard and my deep OTM puts will pay big. However, there’s always a chance they’ll go up. To cover my bases, I’m doing a straddle on SPX on a 1DTE. If I’m wrong and lose all my puts, the calls might help me break even. And if my puts hit, I won’t care about the call premium. (Neutral markets? Theta crushes me like a sad ant.) I am sure there is some math that says I am doing it wrong. I will pick up a **call on SPX ATM** towards the end of the day.
**Sidenote:**
I’m stuck holding **puts on DJT** until it plummets. My DJT calls already paid off, so whatever I get out of those puts is pure profit at this point. As a put on TSLA, because screw them.
I’ve been slowly building these positions over time (which is a very stupid strategy), and it’s been a rough week. As a rainbow bear, I’ve been getting punished while theta eats me alive. So here’s a little loss porn for your enjoyment as well to show current positions. If doesn't work out, I am doing "no options February"...
Edit: Positions didn't come through. (My regards.)
https://preview.redd.it/oyfeynibwlde1.png?width=518&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9158f186c3308c1a51919f7a1db2403ef1f50e4
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STNG Puts - Biden sanctions induced rally which provides good entry for shorts
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[I wrote this dd](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/198ip3b/stng_part_2_of_my_4_part_red_sea_shipping_series/) some time ago where I bought STNG calls and it worked out [reasonably well,](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1992whu/stng_president_selling_i_am_selling_21k_gain_on/) I've been in and out of this name a few other times for small gains. Like all good cyclicals, shipping companies add a ton of supply when they are in a boom and that inevitably creates the conditions for a bust. I think the recent sanctions Biden put gave a rally that provides a good opportunity for shorts looking to participate in what will likely be a bad year or two stretch for product tankers.
[Recent sanctions of russian fleet](https://preview.redd.it/5ahl8wh7rlde1.png?width=1160&format=png&auto=webp&s=83772b0a39909e968af2098c7a4fdfe3da93f5c5)
I think it likely Trump undoes some of these sanctions. I've read that the legal mechanism that Biden used makes it hard for Trump to undo the sanctions until March, but shipping companies are pretty willing to commit crime if they think they can avoid enforcement. In any case, there is a huge wall of shipping supply coming online in 2025. 2% of the DWT (3.2) of the fleet was sanctioned but there is expected to be 7% increase in DWT (12) delivered in newbuilds in 2025.
https://preview.redd.it/35qp86xgrlde1.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=049752ae6cb44b8b1fa8df8b1d6fad778a5ca085
A lot of this move has gotten front run, and without the recent rally I would not be looking to short, but given the fact that the recent rally erased 2 months of losses I think it possible STNG can bleed down another -20% again pretty rapidly, especially if Trump undoes the recent sanctions or otherwise makes it known that they will not be enforced
STNG has been sort of flailing around lately, aggressively buying back shares at prices that the market immediately sells through, and they also spent part of their buyback money on DHT last quarter which was unexpected. Here is what they had to say about that
https://preview.redd.it/sanjxoborlde1.png?width=1251&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0a8bc4344c4ee05a88e1260967d41fb29c5f1fd
[DHT chart](https://preview.redd.it/rs1gumh1slde1.png?width=2439&format=png&auto=webp&s=6289c4ccf02b5ac92f129ec1df126a7183b495b0)
https://preview.redd.it/7yz5hxisrlde1.png?width=1229&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f7903a6c1e67bc8640a4403af79f619fd6ce851
Whenever I see share repurchases at prices well above recent prices I think the company is likely making a mistake. You want to see repurchases put in a bottom.
[A small decrease in rates drastically impacts earnings](https://preview.redd.it/nnh7i00gtlde1.png?width=1212&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2edc18fabe47c6c4554cc6f16b73a71d00e159d)
[STNG's latest shipping rates](https://preview.redd.it/qu14w0sjtlde1.png?width=1172&format=png&auto=webp&s=681efb65cf666d3527d19a49312b4402ab3f2fa6)
Risks
Newbuild ship deliveries could be delayed for any number of reasons. This is a chart from STNG's deck...they obviously want people to think that market is wrong and that less deliveries will come in lmao so idk
https://preview.redd.it/4hgyjft5slde1.png?width=1245&format=png&auto=webp&s=51287a96fd0b007a9c1bbded5eb35f79b12e267e
Iran's crude exports drastically changed in December. As of now I can't see evidence of this forcing refinery closures anywhere. Refinery closures are bearish product tanker rates but the disruption may add ton-miles and more importantly create urgency from fuel buyers that temporarily forces rates higher.
https://preview.redd.it/e0p5pjsqslde1.png?width=1165&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa985f783d37c0ba13716d2a8a63280fc87ba38e
Bottom line anything can happen in shipping, if another trade route gets blockaded for whatever reason and forces ton-miles up it can create a lot more demand for tankers. Good luck !
Here are my positions
https://preview.redd.it/sokrtrq9ulde1.png?width=1975&format=png&auto=webp&s=988529a18220e57fd31a3fb2d94ece9262802d82
Good luck
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Spilling the Beans on Tariffs: The Untold Story of Soybeans Part II
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My apologies for the double post. I believe my first post got deleted for failing to share a screen shot. That's fixed (hence the part 2).
I've got some deep seeded DD here, so lentil me your eyes. I promise to keep this brief, because I'm lazy as shit. Soybeans are my play, and we are closing in on the last days to get in the game. Why, you say?
Because of Tariffs of course. Many of you, may not realize that soybeans account for one of the US's largest exports. And many also may not realize that the largest importer (by far) is China.
Presently, China purchases [approximately 50%](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/02/the-united-states-brazil-and-china-soybean-triangle-a-20-year-analysis.html) of US soybeans. However, during the last trade war, Chinas purchases dropped from 60% to just 18%.
What's happened since? China has invested heavily in Brazil's soybean infrastructure. Brazil is presently the largest soybean exporter, surpassing the US.
And China has been [stocking up](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-pivot-us-farm-imports-bolsters-it-against-trade-war-risks-2024-11-01/#:~:text=About%20half%20of%20American%20soybeans,to%20the%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau.).
What does that mean for soybeans here? Well, presuming China increases it's dependency on other nations to produce soybeans, it means the cost of soybeans goes down and the US soybeans go to waste.
But what about the biofuels tax credits? It's incentivizes vehicles that run on soybean based fuels for US consumers? Guess what? [It expires soon](https://insidetrade.com/daily-news/treasury-issues-guidance-biofuel-credit-punting-final-rules-trump) and Trump will be deciding whether to renew Biden's credit for renewable fuels. Think that's likely?
And let's not forget that the [second largest importer of soybeans has historically been Mexico](https://unitedsoybean.org/issue-briefs/global-markets/). And guess what he's proposing to do to Mexico? That's right, Tariffs. The last time this happened, Mexico responded with retaliatory tariffs on [US agriculture](https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2022/march/retaliatory-tariffs-reduced-u-s-states-exports-of-agricultural-commodities).
In addition, [soybean farming is dependent on illegal immigrants](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor#:~:text=Roughly%20Half%20of%20Hired%20Crop,declined%20to%20about%2040%20percent.). Guess what Trump's plan is? Deportation.
As to current production, [the current yield was down](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor#:~:text=Roughly%20Half%20of%20Hired%20Crop,declined%20to%20about%2040%20percent.), which led to temporary price increases on the presumption of supply and demand. However, Brazil is up.
Last time there was a trade war, the price per bushel was around 9.30 prior to the tariffs and about 8 after.
Are there any potential upcoming catalysts? Yes! Donald Trump gets sworn into office on Tuesday. He has promised to levy these tariffs day 1.
So what did I invest in? Puts on SOYB. This is a composite of the price of soybeans.
During the last trade war, it went from ~$19 to ~$15 in 3 months and bottomed out at about $13 at the peak of the trade wars.
As a result, I presently don't like this stock, so I have 137 puts expiring in May.
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NBIS - Options Activity and Call Walls
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Positions have adapted slightly since my previous post but I’ll be long NBIS for the foreseeable future, conservatively targeting $65 a share.
PCR is around 0.3, with most OTM volume around $38 and $40 strikes.
This plays into the resistance at 38. The next major expiry comes into play on Feb 21st, with open interest largely concentrated around these two strikes.
Past this date, $40 strike continues to represent a large portion of open interest, and represents the next major call wall.
As for Feb 21st, This is one week after earnings, which should (hopefully) provide much more insight into the KC GPU Clusters which are scheduled to go live in Q1.
Combined with the expanded capacity at their data center in Finland, and the newly introduced H200 GPUs, there should be lots of ammunition to increase bullish sentiment and expand analyst coverage.
At the current liquidity levels, it looks to me like the stage is set for a gamma squeeze at 40, barring a negative catalyst in the short term.
With a firm as pessimistic as Citron being openly bullish on the CEO, I think there’s reason to be optimistic that they will deliver on schedule with the KC facility, and set the stage for continued investment in infrastructure through 2025.
This should drive the price significantly higher.
https://preview.redd.it/d73x0jr4xgde1.png?width=971&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb68b045544f4be155d30f3861d665dc181139fd
4 45C May 16
1 42C May 16
72 Shares
https://preview.redd.it/v40uws6gvgde1.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddcdca37665a344acb4ce7f616798d238e94471a
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SENS: it’s back
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Do you like making money? So do I, which is why I’m balls deep in SENS and my wife’s BF is balls deep in…well, you know.
Anywho, most of you have probably heard of SENS but if you haven’t, they are a boomed with the longest lasting CGM system with a whooping 365 day approval that just went live last quarter. Think dexcom but 20x longevity.
That being said, you might say, “But Pooner, this bitch already done did run over 200% off its lows” and I’ll agree, but I also don’t think it’s done.
From a fundamentals perspective they recently released preliminary numbers for q4 which were absolutely explosive, but don’t take my word, read here (because it’s easier than typing it out). https://www.senseonics.com/investor-relations/news-releases/2025/01-08-2025-231228075
Holy cow! Talk about amazing, but they still have to continue that trend of increasing numbers, and how might they do that? Well 2 of the upcoming catalysts may help with that. In Q1, Senseonics is expected to release news on pump integration, a necessity if they truly want to be comparable to competitors. Additionally the trial period for the pediatric study will conclude by March. Other catalysts are in the pipeline but atm not worth mentioning and shouldn’t be a consideration IMO.
Lastly in TA, 2 very bullish crossings have occurred in the last week, the 50 MA over the 200 on the daily chart and the 10 over the 50 on the weekly chart. The last time these golden crosses occurred was Jan 2021, running from .4->$5+. To account for dilutions this would be $3+.
“But Pooner, I see you have a pretty substantial position with solid gains already, how do I know you aren’t trying to offload your bags onto me.” That’s the fun part, you don’t! You can believe me or not but here is my trading plan. Tomorrow I’m expecting a jump above 1$, hopefully turning my 1/17 1cs into baggers so I can close and use profits to exercise my .5cs. Aside from that, my first target for offloading is in the 1.35 range where I’m cutting about 30%. Everything else is long term unless it jumps to 3, which I’d shave all but 25% of my position looking to rebuy lower.
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TH and the Immigration Trifecta
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Target Hospitality (TH) is a relatively overlooked potential beneficiary of Trump’s Immigration policy. They are one of the largest providers of temporary accommodations. These temporary accommodations have been used for (a) immigration, and (b) large construction projects - think infrastructure build-outs or oil exploration. This chart shows they have benefited from contracts under all recent administrations. **They did especially well under Trump’s previous administration.**
https://preview.redd.it/murphr17sede1.png?width=1148&format=png&auto=webp&s=815a9700f682c01faed351f064ed4ed01c6ce2e1
**Indications They Are Vying For Immigration Contracts**
On Nov 18, 2024 - immediately after the election - they brought on board a former Chief of US Border Patrol under Trump. If that was not telling enough, the ACLU announced this week that a FOI act request makes clear they submitted a proposal to expand ICE’s detention capacity and facilities.
[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1712189\/000171218924000082\/ex99-1.htm](https://preview.redd.it/x92tzbybsede1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9a4a8005f6a63face54d545f33fea822153dce1)
[https:\/\/www.aclu.org\/press-releases\/aclu-foia-litigation-continues-to-disclose-ice-proposals-to-expand-immigration-detention-nationwide](https://preview.redd.it/vaf1pqvcsede1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=e585cd86300791ad04e2c39302d68e11bd7aed09)
**The Scale of Opportunity**
Now the WSJ has estimated that Trump’s plan could cost \~160b, and detention centers by far stand to be the greatest beneficiaries - costing \~168b.
[https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eqPgAU1JRL4](https://preview.redd.it/nklhqzcusede1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=db0e51ff20612a0424cdbc4e163a03f4913b0226)
*TH currently has a 1 billion enterprise value. If they received even a small portion of the expected cost of detaining immigrants, they would stand to be worth far more.*
**The oil exploration opportunity**
Aside from Immigration Policy, Trump is most vocal about increasing oil production within the US. Again, TH is well positioned to benefit here - providing lodging throughout the Permian basin.
https://preview.redd.it/q8l1wu6wsede1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f8dc8706e1f94c7cce74e414b7b11e5ca93ca1b
**Comps**
The two other players in this space are CXW and GEO. They have both already seen sharp moves both upon Trump winning the election and now in anticipation of him taking office and taking swift action to limit illegal immigration. And despite running massively, price targets have recently been raised.
https://preview.redd.it/6h4symaxsede1.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9eea46c31f05d4b2d859ebd6fc6074eb88d46a8
https://preview.redd.it/w4zo2bqxsede1.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=180e912394e1facad4679cbde09524b0ee4b2e38
Both of these operate private prisons and detention centers. The thesis for these names has been widely circulated, so there is little value in re-iterating it here. However, they are important comps for Target Hospitality (TH) and illustrate some of the possible upside to the trade. Notably TH is ⅙ of the size of GEO, and trades at much lower valuations.
**Frankly, given the size of necessary expenditures - all of these stand to be winners. IMO, TH offers the greatest possible upside at this juncture.**
https://preview.redd.it/0omquuwysede1.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb9d7db74e85cae34861f2e7170c3ac265023b6
For more info on the company, the investor presentation is here:
[https://investors.targethospitality.com/presentations-and-events/presentations/default.aspx](https://investors.targethospitality.com/presentations-and-events/presentations/default.aspx)
I am long commons and calls of various strikes and expiries as indicated below.
https://preview.redd.it/bkjwjp28tede1.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f3c00862e5af8a0ca1132d4185449d620b09b83
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CorMedix (CRMD): My Regarded DD & Position.
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**A)You guys didn't like my last regarded post so here's my DD; and**
**(B)The following is my opinion, and is NOT investment advice**.
**TLDR:** I believe CorMedix will be $25-$50 by EOY… Mark my regardation... Enjoy.
**Summary:** CorMedix ran 214% since August 2024. I believe CRMD will run to $25-$50 before year end. However, I could not post it prior to its previous run due to WSB’s post requirements. I cited as much as I could to be: (a) transparent; and (b) illustrate my thought process. (Obviously, the price point and projection is my opinion based on the available data.)
**Position:**
https://preview.redd.it/f1s8mqj5scde1.jpg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6e0f9ab4c64a58d73a3d6864bbe658c04c4e9ba2
**NOTE**\*\*:\*\* “Id.” means the same document or page if without a corresponding page number. All Ids. should be referencing the prior source i.e., non-interchanging. If not then it is a mistake, and use your best judgement in reviewing all the sources...Lastly, some sources you're going to have to look up yourself, i.e., 2024 Q3 Earnings transcripts/calls.
Cormedix is a biotech company that has an FDA approved product called Defencath.(See Investor Deck Page 3[ https://cormedix.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/CorMedix-Corp-Presentation\_11-7-24.pdf](https://cormedix.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/CorMedix-Corp-Presentation_11-7-24.pdf)) Defencath is a catheter lock solution that prevents Catheter Related Blood Infections (CRBIS) for people who are receiving Hemodialysis(HD) as a result of kidney failure. (Id. at page 3.) Defencath reduces incident rates of CRBISs by 71% and an efficacy rate of .00006.(See [https://www.defencath.com/safety](https://www.defencath.com/safety)). Approximately 170,000 patients that are on (HD) have CVCs.(Id. at page 17.) The total addressable market for Defencath is between 37 million to 46 million in the out-patient setting. (Id. at 17). The total addressable market on the in-patient side is approximately 3.8 million vials (Id. at 15).
A Central Venous Catheter (CVC) is surgically implanted in a patient so they can receive HD. The HD session allows the blood to exit the body, and enter a dialysis machine to filter out the waste. Think of a dialysis machine as an artificial kidney. The blood must travel through the CVC in order for it to eliminate waste from a patient's blood. This population, as a result of having a CVC, is susceptible to CRBISs composed of: (1) gram positive bacteria; (2) gram negative bacteria; and (3) fungal infections; that grow within the CVC. (See video:[ https://www.defencath.com/how-defencath-works](https://www.defencath.com/how-defencath-works)) Therefore, Defencath cleans the CVC to prevent these infections before and after HD sessions.
**For the Clearguard Brigade:** as the Clearguard caps are only 61% effective after 3 months–as opposed to Cormedix’s post marketing study from EU, where **DEFENCATH reduced CRBISs by 96%: “Under the study, 202 hemodialysis patients at 20 hemodialysis centers in Germany were enrolled in the ongoing Neutrolin Use Monitoring Program (NUMP), representing 15,464 dialysis sessions over a 26-month period, for a total of 36,083 hemodialysis catheter days. These data demonstrated that use of Neutrolin is associated with 96.0% reduction in the rate of CRBSI and 96.7% reduction in thrombosis compared to published historical benchmarks of 3.5 CRBSIs and 2-3 episodes of thrombosis per 1,000 catheter days.” (See** [**https://cormedix.com/defencath/neutrolin-in-europe/**](https://cormedix.com/defencath/neutrolin-in-europe/)**)** Reminder–Neutroline was Defencath’s name prior to it being changed in the states. Obviously, it was not an FDA post-marketing study, but it is a hint to how it will preform on its' post marketing study, in the U.S.. (I believe the above is the correct interpretation, feel free to doublecheck me.)
Since the HD population typically receives treatments three (3x) times a week, and two vials are required per each session to prevent CRBIS. This is why the total addressable market, when fully implemented, is projected to sell between 37 million and 47 million vials per year. (see investor deck).
Cormedix secured 60% of the out-patient centers, and the top 5 companies control 85% of the market. Cormedix already has contracts with the four (4) of the five (5) top market participants as well as smaller providers. (See 2024 Q3 Earnings call.... quoting("We recently announced new agreements with two midsized dialysis operators and one large-scale operator, which combined with our existing customers will provide patients access to DefenCath at roughly 60% of dialysis clinics in the U.S. We are currently working diligently with our new partners to operationalize those agreements and currently expect purchases to commence for all three before the end of the fourth quarter.")).
In Q3 of 2024 CRMD earned 11.5 million. **However**, in Q4 of 2024, CRMD beat estimates by securing **$31 million, and is reported to have 25 million in** ***open*** **orders in Q1 of 2025.** (See[ https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/](https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/)). The following link illustrates what some postulated what CorMedix’s growth would look like prior to its most recent announcement. (See [https://media.stocktwits-cdn.com/api/3/media/182924/default.png](https://media.stocktwits-cdn.com/api/3/media/182924/default.png); Credit to Newageinvestor)
**Insiders** have been holding for years, except for one who recently sold in November of 2024, however, she was awarded nearly the same amount of shares in Q1 of 2025. And some insiders sold some shares for tax purposes. (See all insider activity:[ https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/crmd/insider-activity](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/crmd/insider-activity); see also SEC Filings)
**Institutional holdings** amount to approximately 31% with the top holders listed in descending order: (1) Blackrock, 3.6 million shares; (2) Vanguard Group, 3 million shares; (3) Elliot Management, with approximately 1.5 million shares; (4) Rosalind Advisors with 1.4 million shares; (5) Geode Capital with 1.2 Million shares; and (6) State Street Corp with 1.2 Million shares. (see[ https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/crmd/institutional-holdings](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/crmd/institutional-holdings))
**Short Interest** is currently at 11.45% or approximately 7 million shares. (See[ https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CRMD/short-interest/](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CRMD/short-interest/))
**Key Statistics**: (1) 60 million shares; (2) cash in hand 53 million; (3) **zero debt**; and (4) a market cap of 650 million. (See investor Deck)
**Q-10 10/30/24:**
On April 18, 2024 CorMedix Transitional Drug Add-on-Payment (TDAPA) was granted by CMS for ESRD patients which provides temporary additional payments for certain new drugs. The TDAPA’s reimbursement is calculated on 100% of the WAC. (See page 22 of 10-Q CorMedix 10/30/24, quoting(“The HCPCS J-code for DefenCath was published by CMS on April 2, 2024. TDAPA reimbursement is calculated based on 100 percent ASP (or 100 percent of wholesale acquisition price or manufacturers’ list price, respectively, if such data is unavailable). TDAPA and post-TDAPA add-on payment adjustments for DefenCath apply for five years (with such add-on payments applying to all ESRD PPS payments for years three through five). CMS confirmed a July 1, 2024 implementation date for HCPCS and TDAPA.”)).
April 26, 2023 Cormedix was granted a New Technology Add-On Payment(NTAP) which reimburses in-patient facilities of 75% of the WAC per 3 mL vial. The average hospital stay is approximately 19.5 vials per hospital stay. The WAC price is 249.99 per 3 mL vial. (See page 22 of 10-Q CorMedix 10/30/24)
On June 6, 2024, Cormedix announced medicare via its hospital out-patient system granted Defencath a “pass-through status.” Medicare basically pays separately for Defencath when it is used in outpatient settings rather than bundling it with other payments. The company estimates 100,000 CVC placements for HD patients that occurs annually. This pass-through status allows out-patient providers to be reimbursed as a result. This pass through payment status is at minimum 2 years and at max three years. (Id. at 22)
In June of 2024 CRMD received feedback from FDA for expansion for other indications for Defencath, and three (3) clinical protocols were discussed: (1) a post-marketing requirement for pediatric HD to ensure efficacy; (2) Phase 3 TPN study for adult TPN patients; and (3) EAP to allow patients access to Defencath prior to approval for those with CVCs.(Id. At 23). The TPN & Pediatric HD study are projected to begin in 2025.(Id.)
Patent protection for Defencath is until 2042 (Id at 23.)
**Key points for TDAPA**
* TDAPA commenced on July 1st and applies to all Medicare fee-for-service patients, which comprises roughly 45% of all ESRD patients in the United States. Medicare Advantage, comprising an additional 45% of ESRD patients, remains an opportunity for growth and expansion for the DefenCath reimbursement. We have been engaged with all major Medicare Advantage organizations across the country, and we are happy to report that UnitedHealthcare, the largest MA plan in the country in terms of covered lives, which accounts for roughly 30% of Medicare Advantage enrollment, has confirmed that they will provide comparable TDAPA reimbursement for DefenCath beginning on September 1st.
* Humana, which comprises roughly 20% of Medicare Advantage population, has also confirmed that they will provide TDAPA reimbursement, which may vary, depending on provider contracts. As we progress through our first year of launch, the company intends to remain engaged with Medicare Advantage plans to ensure adequate reimbursement to operators.
* From a long-term perspective, the company believes that ESRD Medicare patients, in general, will -- that -- will continue to migrate from Medicare fee-for-service into Medicare Advantage plans and that the value-based care proposition for DefenCath will resonate with MA plans and hopefully result in long-term sustainable separate reimbursement in this patient segment.
* See[ ](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/08/14/cormedix-crmd-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript/)Earnings transcripts Q3 and and Q4 Press release.
**Additional stuff WSB Probably won’t read LOL:**
1. **TOTAL PARENTERAL NUTRITION –Label expansion:**
1. The Company believes that a TPN Roll out in 2027 to 2028 would increase revenue by 150 million dollars. See earnings transcripts Q3 and Q4 press release--Google)
**Ongoing clinical trials & costs**
1. Pediatric Clinical Trials are planned to begin in the second half of 2025 in conjunction with TPN for the first half of 2025. (See [ https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
2. TPN Clinical protocol was submitted in Q4 of 2024.
3. Cormedix is enrolling 4,000 patients with LDO (Likely Fresenius) in the first half of 2025.
4. Real World study with US Renal Care:
5. Expected cost of operations for 2025 is between 72-million and 78 million. ([https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://cormedix.com/cormedix-inc-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2024-results-and-provides-business-update/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))
6. **Fresenius stake:**
1. Elliot Investment has acquired a significant stake in FMC & CorMedix.
2. Erin Misty has close ties to Elliot Management & Syneos Health which is likely the reason for the recent layoffs in the sales team. (See CorMedix's Website-)
*I'm actually shocked, had you read this far in....*
**NOTE: This is what I think could happen for Q1 of 2025 and it is only my belief/opinion ... I'm Regarded:** I believe the company will earn anywhere from 51 million to 71 million for Q1 of 2025. This takes into account the following factors: (1) 2000 of 4000Fresenius patients (which is 10% of their CVC patients), and (2) it assumes we correctly did the math for 31 million Q4's 2024; (3) additional patients are receiving Defencath as a treatment as part of the "ramp up." ... I'm sure there are smarter people than me out here who can double check everything...
**TLDR: This is my opinion, and it is not in anyway investment advice.** I believe CorMedix will be $25-$50 by EOY… Mark my (regarded) words... Enjoy.
**Summary:** CorMedix ran 214% since August 2024. I believe CRMD will run to $25-$50 before year end. However, I could not post it prior to its previous run due to WSB’s post requirements. Every statement made herein, is supported by verifiable facts, about the company has a citation. I’ve also linked previous reddit posts done by others. (Obviously, the price point and projection is my opinion based on the available data.)
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$RGTI CEO: US taxpayers are their main "customers" who pay their "revenue", need to lower expectations on commercial use
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Hello quantum "experts",
Are your RGTI profits both in your account and not in your account? I guess it depends when you look at it.
Last I looked, I made 6X my money with $7 puts, In this post I questioned RGTI's revenue sources before the CEO admitted what they are, see below.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hy9meh/rgti\_needs\_to\_come\_clean\_on\_revenue\_sources\_or/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hy9meh/rgti_needs_to_come_clean_on_revenue_sources_or/)
and the other time I looked, I made 10X my money with $15 puts for last week, and in this post I questioned why they sold 100M worth of stock and diluted the shareholders at $2 if they believed the company is worth more....like $20.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hsszsq/rgti\_management\_sold\_at\_2\_giving\_us\_the\_shortest/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hsszsq/rgti_management_sold_at_2_giving_us_the_shortest/)
Why am I so focused on RGTI? I do not appreciate management that keeps silent and coy when their stock is hyped and overvalued. Back in the day, it was customary for companies to issue PRs saying "We are not aware of any company developments that might have caused the recent stock activity and volatility" and the stock would settle down. Nowadays, they are salivating at the greed of others as well as the aggregate disregard for rationality in pursuit of yields and profits. So they kept silent and probably fumed for issuing stock at $2 instead of $20.
Well, the silence was broken by RGTI's CEO a couple of times this week, and it was a sh\*t show both times.
First at the Needham conference....well, just watch the first few seconds of the disclaimer RGTI asked the moderator to recite before the interview, and the CEOs reaction to it. People getting up and walking away in dismay.
Some paraphrased soundbites;
1. They are not concerned with sales but they are focused on technology
2. Their "stuff" is used by their research partners for scientific research and not commercial purposes - NVDA's Jensen was right
3. They depend on Fermilab for funneling government funds/grants onto them. By the way, Fermilab was shut down in the summer for a while due to lack of funding.
4. They salivate and pray that a new government budget is being proposed/passed for increased spending on quantum because.....drum roll....
5. They rely almost fully on government funds/grants, i.e. YOUR TAX MONEY and mine, to survive and play with flux capacitors. EDIT: they also rely on dumping money on the dumb public which is clueless what quantum is and what it does or does not do, but that is beyond the scope of this post.
Total mess, have a watch, just don't die from cringe: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upj8EAT-HZM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upj8EAT-HZM)
Then, in this Yahoo segment, he plays a good guy saying that we need to lower our expectations on quantum commercialization, while at the same time he has the audacity to throw "others" in the industry under the bus for making exaggerated claims about large revenues from quantum, which he implies are NOT happening and we all knew that all along...Have a watch:
[https://finance.yahoo.com/video/rigetti-computing-ceo-hype-stock-130000567.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/rigetti-computing-ceo-hype-stock-130000567.html)
No, RGTI needed to calm the public down when the stock shot up from pennies to over $20 and tell them that it is still in an R&D stage and it has no commercial applications in the real world outside of government sponsored research circles. That should have served the purpose and kept RGIT at $2 or below. But no, it needed to be be coy and mum, right?
At the same time, not once did RGTI mention the word "research grant" in their last 10-Q, and kept referring to entities where "revenue" comes from as "customers" even though it is obvious from the interviews that it is research partners which share the same grant money are their "customers" but in the end, it is you and I the dumb idiotic tax paying public that has no idea where tax money goes and how it is spent. They go as far as doing a full blown customer segmentation by geography and "customer size" while the SEO admitted it is pretty much all government research funds they claim as "revenues".
Here is the 10Q filing, have a read, I know you won't: [https://investors.rigetti.com/node/9666/html](https://investors.rigetti.com/node/9666/html)
We deserve this stuff and we don't deserve it at the same time, in an ironic quantum fashion.
Disclosure: I own $10 puts for this Friday and will trade, trim or add more or different puts as I see fit.
https://preview.redd.it/18lehfyk78de1.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&s=68688883073dcbb5313357711e8d211cfd700249
EDIT: Well, RGTI algos remained regarded and pinned the 10 strike for what felt like eternity, only to drop it at the end and they still to 5 cents from me because as soon as my order filled the price moved to 22.5 mid. This is my tip to the casino waitress for the week, still up 13X my initial investment in the 15s and then the 7s, so I am bidding RGTI and all of you a farewell.....until next time, which is probably next Thursday.
https://preview.redd.it/yshnzwe5cmde1.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=00458dbc1618613a5bfb77d32ef89dbacf7e626c
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SERV's food delivery robots will fail and I can prove it
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://preview.redd.it/bofd5uleb7de1.png?width=452&format=png&auto=webp&s=ecd1178ed4bda7f8ef6c000f100fb769464dd705\n\nYou thought it would be because of crackheads and homeless people? Nope, those are the least of Serve Robotics' worries. \n\n\n\nThe company has a history of not only being unprofitable, but also having negative gross margins. That's REALLY bad, the cost of operating their robots is higher than the revenue generated from them. It's the equivalent of buying high and selling low, I'm sure you regards are familiar with that.\n\nThis would be fine if the company focused on improving the robot's efficiency, autonomy and costs until they can demonstrate potential future profitability...\n\nBut instead, this year they suddenly decided to start manufacturing 2000 of their 3rd generation robot. That's a 20x increase from their current fleet of 100 robots. These robots cost more to produce than an average car, this sudden ramp up will put a lot of financial pressure on the company. The CEO's reasoning: this mass production contract will help drive the robot's cost down.\n\n\n\n*By the way, did you know their robots are actually remote controlled with a PS5 controller 20% of the time?*\n\n[From SERV's 10-K 2023 SEC filing](https://preview.redd.it/q3zaju5vb7de1.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1aac7002652983d323481aaf88297d549d30988)\n\nAnyways, let's run the numbers down. Don't skip to the TLDR yet I'll try to make it interesting.\n\nWhat we want to figure out is a future projection of:\n\n* a robot's average yearly revenue\n* its associated yearly costs as well as production costs\n* calculate the years it takes to get a return on investment\n\nLet's first take a look at their fleet's current revenue.\n\n[From SERV's latest quarterly report](https://preview.redd.it/67fawqkec7de1.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=02b62e9a6900fd04f87a36d1891284e6161d91f0)\n\nExtrapolated yearly, that's $450k in delivery revenue generated by the robots. But how many robots were active during that period?\n\nhttps://preview.redd.it/hligx3cic7de1.png?width=559&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c085ee410181ab38760de0fc31c6f685e272444\n\nThe \"daily supply hours\" indicate a daily runtime of about 8h per robot. \n\nOn average, 59 daily active robots. Extrapolating the quarterly data, that gives us an average yearly delivery revenue per robot of... **$7612**.\n\n\n\nDoes that sound bad? We haven't even looked at the cost of operating each of these robots, and just comparing that yearly revenue to the manufacturing cost of the robot makes you question how they could ever reach profitability. \n\n\n\nI dug into their [SEC filings](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1832483/000121390024018566/ea0200355ex10-16_serverobot.htm) and found out their current 2nd generation robots cost them **$63,654** each. It's very unsurprising the CEO never talks about that number in any of his numerous interviews. It would currently take a robot 8 years to gain enough delivery revenue to pay back its initial production cost.\n\n\n\nWe haven't even talked about the cost of revenue yet, Is it already all over for Serve robotics? No, remember, what we're interested in is a projection of their future profitability. \n\n\n\nAccording to the company, their 3rd gen delivery robots that will begin manufacturing will have more battery autonomy, higher top speeds (up to 11mph, looking forward to the inevitable accidents and lawsuits), and a production cost per robot slashed by half.\n\n\n\nI booted up excel and ran the numbers. Considering the delivery revenue efficiency per robot hours barely went up between 2023 and 2024, I'm projecting a charitable improved daily robot runtime (currently at 8h) and delivery efficiency increase based on the new gen robot specs. Also accounting for the halved robot cost ($32,000):\n\n[values are per robot](https://preview.redd.it/ckldrv0dd7de1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=02a0c75367a05a732cf3623d50ffea942aa52f83)\n\nNot looking great...\n\nAnd I'm not done, lets get to the fun part! Expenses.\n\n\n\nThese are the expenses that directly scale with the number of robots:\n\n* **Robot remote control and monitoring:**\n\nAs I've mentioned before, the robots need to be remote controlled 20% of the time to navigate \"complicated\" situations like intersection crossings. For a robot daily uptime of 10 hours, that's 2 hours of human work time. In reality, more than 2 hours would be necessary as the amount of robots needing human control at the same time will spike. Let's go with 2.5 hours as a conservative estimate. At a rate of 20$/hour, that's... $18,250 spent yearly per robot. \n\n* **Robot repairs and maintenance:**\n\nYearly robot repairs and maintenance typically amount to 10 to 20% of their initial cost. Considering SERV's robots operate outside, sometimes under rain and other bad conditions, their maintenance costs are probably higher but let's use the conservative estimate of 10%, so $3200 per year.\n\n\n\nThose are the two biggest expenses, I'll ignore mobile internet costs (each robot livestreams video feed to human operators), the cost to physically help the robot when it gets toppled over, energy cost to repair batteries, etc.\n\n\n\nBefore we get to the final projection, it's important to take into account a secondary revenue source for their robots: advertisement revenue. Ads they stick on the sides and top of the robot. I chose an estimate of $800 a month per robot in ad revenue. For reference, full car wrap ad services typically pay at maximum $400/month.\n\n\n\nAnd here we have the final projection:\n\n[values are per robot](https://preview.redd.it/4gr0dcn7e7de1.png?width=986&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab2493adeaa67574b7f9950de2da425b3b5f31ce)\n\nEven with the most charitable projection, 6 years to recoup the robot's production cost is way too long to be profitable. The robot's lifespan might not even exceed 5 years. The real cost of operating the robots will also very likely be much higher than my estimation.\n\n# A bit of history\n\nSERV is currently valued at over 1 billion dollars. When it IPOed, at the beginning of 2024, it was priced at a valuation of 100 Million, and its stock quickly dropped by half once it hit the market. Since then, it diluted its shares by more than 2x. \n\nSo why did the stock massively pump 2000% in the middle of the year? That happened after the reveal of NVIDIA's $12M investment (at the time, 10% ownership) in the company. \n\nNVIDIA's venture capital arm ([Nventures](https://www.nventures.ai/)), invested in the company back in 2022. It invests in all sorts of innovative AI companies who use their products. NVIDIA has a vested interest in the company successfully operating autonomous delivery robots, it's great advertisement for their Jetson modules and the advancement of AI. That does not mean NVIDIA believes or really cares that much about the company being able to generate a profit.\n\n# My prediction\n\nThe 2000 robots, all supposedly manufactured during 2025, will cost the company an initial 60 million dollars. As the robots begin operating, costs will balloon 20 times over and revenue won't catch up. Serve Robotics will continue bleeding money at a much faster pace, and will keep diluting shares. Insiders started selling a lot of shares in the past 2 months ($3M). I expect it might take a while for the price to correct itself, but considering how overvalued SERV is right now I'm confident in shorting it and I expect it to drop during future financial reports.\n\n\n\nI am short $3200, 180 shares at $17.80. Not financial advice.\n\nhttps://preview.redd.it/n9snsxcrf7de1.png?width=921&format=png&auto=webp&s=788feba3e1b0343e063bf5eb7ab7ac2ac383ced9\n\nI'd also like to declare myself the official winner against u/Remarkable_File9128 who [challenged](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hrxxk7/kulr_bullish_dd/) my DD on KULR"
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NBIS - Picks & Shovels but make it AI
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TL:DR :
* Company makes infrastructure for AI workloads at extremely impressive efficiency levels. Proprietary configuration for GPU clusters (first in NA to complete in Q1), has efficiency levels and compute performance beyond that of Tesla's latest creation, which NVDA Jensen said described as remarkable. Tip of the iceberg
* $700 mil invested by NVIDIA, who is supplying H100 Hopper GPUs for their cluster models with the first being constructed in KC, with plans to integrate Blackwell GPU H2 2025.
* Minimal debt totaling $27mil with a near $2bil in cash, $1bil+ planned infrastructure development in 25', with ARR forecast of $750m-1b
Primary focus is not some unremarkable data processing system that every SV chump and his grandma are pushing down throats. Nebius was sitting on some already profitable infrastructure in Finland and decided they could expand, replicate and improve across Europe and North America.
They were able to secure listing on the NASDAQ, and quickly obtained a $700 mil investment from Nvidia. Contrary to the few posts from your normal run of the mill bullshit like Motley fool etc..., this part on it's own is actually meaningless. Companies the size on Nvidia throw hail mary's at startups all the time and don't blink when they fail. However, in the context of their lofty development goals, this was their entry point to securing the hardware they needed to succeed, of which there is a finite supply.
Nebius plans to house 35,000 GPU's upon completion of the KC facility (20,000 by year end), utilizing the latest and incredibly efficient NVIDIA H200 GPUs
Alongside this, their facility in Finland is getting an overhaul and expansion, and a new facility will be constructed in Paris.
This is early days, P/S incredibly low in the peer group, which is insane considering the ridiculous multiples on all of the other shit doing nothing in this space. Industry trends are a massive tail wind. If they stay true to growth projections it's only a matter of time before it balloons, and Q1 is an excellent test of their reliance and ability to meet targets.
They received their first buy rating today from some garage shop trying to play wallstreet dress-up, but institutional money is going to be eyeing this closely, and they have an added advantage of their global footprint for managers looking to reposition this far into the secular bull.
As far as revenue goes, they reported $43 million in Q3 2024. They anticipate ARR to surpass $700 mil by year end. If we want to keep valuations reasonable relative to peers, this company should be valued well above 15 billion by year end, making a $65 share price entirely reasonable as the market plays catch-up.
While searching for appropriate contracts, I discovered zero liquidity on every prominent strike from this week until 2027. On Jan 9th open interest spiked an hour into close across most 40, 45, and 50 strikes. Begun building a position here and will continue to do so as I raise cash.
As of today:
72 Shares Cost Basis $29.15
4 45C May 16
1 40C Feb 21
https://preview.redd.it/n1xyv8vx90de1.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b5c040a5f2da563a664caa45caf11528d88358
Plan on buying more when VIX falls below $18
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KODAK will prosper under the new US Administration
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I read this post by user Adventurous Date a couple months back:
"Kodak now has 1.4 Billion in cash after they sold the excess from the pension. They only have 400 million in debt.
They could literally pay off all their debt and still have a billion in cash.
And the market cap is only… 532 million. That means the amount of cash they have is more than twice their market cap.
They’re also profitable and revenue exceeds 1 billion a year.
They could announce a $1 special dividend and it would only cost 60 million…. Stock is heavily shorted…
Do with this as you must.
[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/kodak-stock-is-rising-it-found-a-boatload-of-cash-in-the-pension-plan/ar-AA1uNokA?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/kodak-stock-is-rising-it-found-a-boatload-of-cash-in-the-pension-plan/ar-AA1uNokA?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds)
Also, the COVID era pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturing plant (Trump announced, sent stock soaring 3,200% in 2 days) is almost complete. Story from 2 weeks ago:
[https://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/business/local-business/kodak-pharmaceutical-ingredient-factory-nearing-completion/amp/](https://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/business/local-business/kodak-pharmaceutical-ingredient-factory-nearing-completion/amp/)
Finally, the US imposed tariffs last month on Kodak’s competitors, to specifically help Kodak, the only US manufacturer of aluminum printing plates:
[https://www.alcircle.com/news/kodak-s-call-for-tariffs-answered-us-to-impose-hefty-duties-on-imported-aluminium-printing-plates-112353?srsltid=AfmBOoqcAD-pC6yafn8auf4oN60aQaPUrgDLx2vh3zrUHHJyXT-TQNqx](https://www.alcircle.com/news/kodak-s-call-for-tariffs-answered-us-to-impose-hefty-duties-on-imported-aluminium-printing-plates-112353?srsltid=AfmBOoqcAD-pC6yafn8auf4oN60aQaPUrgDLx2vh3zrUHHJyXT-TQNqx)
And for fun: Did you know Kodak had a secret nuclear room with highly enriched weapons grade uranium?
[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/kodak-reveals-it-had-secret-nuclear-reactor-for-30-years-7754328.html](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/kodak-reveals-it-had-secret-nuclear-reactor-for-30-years-7754328.html)
"
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
I got curious and called Kodak Investor Relations to ask what they will do with the money, and what their main source of revenue was. He told me they have no current plans to use the cash, and that their primary source of revenue was commercial printing but might soon be eclipsed by their Advanced Materials and Chemicals sector. He then said that they will roll out some new sources of revenue in 2025 that the market would react well to. Now you're gonna have to Trust Me Bro on that one because I did not record the phone call.
Now we all know the Orange Man loves Kodak, he loaned them $765 million during his first administration (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/28/896209016/trump-gives-medical-stockpile-a-kodak-moment-with-new-loan-to-make-drugs) and he loves all things "old Timey" so you know he loves this:
https://preview.redd.it/81qhb1ya30de1.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c98be9d52deb9bb934aa642b149f82700d68118
With all of this in mind, I bought 400 shares of KODK at $6.55 and I am hoping for some sort of boost from the Orange Guy, or the new product rollout, or their use of the 1.4 Billion in cash. Their stock peaked at $7.74 a few weeks after the announcement that they had 1.4 Billion in cash, and is currently at $6.38.
https://preview.redd.it/rse77gkz30de1.png?width=2856&format=png&auto=webp&s=c693c02d07c8d683b15080ff24e54e588f64bdce
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NVO Novo Nordisk A/S is trading at a discount.
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While some might think of juicy burgers and crunchy chicken tendies when reading 'discount', it is actually Novo trading at a discount. Since the crazy market overreaction to Novo's latest GLP-1 drug study results, it has become evident, that Novo Nordisk is heavily undervalued.
While Novo can do better communicating the results of the REDEFINE trial (press release on 20th of Dec. 2024) and the study design itself (flexible protocol), Novos care for heavy guys and gals is heart melting. The drugs are good. One might even go to the cops for being robbed of their pounds so fast:
Cagrisema showed superior performance, outdoing monotherapy of both Semaglutide or Cagrilintide significantly.
The December Dump: Weight loss was reported in percent, instead of change in the BMI and BFP. Test subjects assigned could choose their own dosage (patient-friendly flexible protocol) and weren't administered accordingly to individual medical stats.
Quote NVO: "The REDEFINE 1 trial was based on a flexible protocol, allowing patients to modify their dosing throughout the trial. After 68 weeks, 57.3% of patients treated with CagriSema were on the highest dose compared to 82.5% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg and 70.2% with semaglutide 2.4 mg.
When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment1, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 11.8% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.1% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 2.3% with placebo alone."
While the stock took a record single day hit, Novo Nordisk sales and future sales regarding weight loss drugs are only to rise further.
[countries by obesity rate - 0% to 50% range](https://preview.redd.it/szq1klk2syce1.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=de3039d67b4454a82c2b93ecfeb20e2a0a3c401f)
The market and the margins are just as massive as the people about to receive prescription of Cagrisema. Cagrisema is a subcutaneous injection, once per week. Insurance companies are pickung up on the trend to treat very well fed folks with GLP-1 drugs, as it's the easiest, safest and most cost effective way to care for obese people. Obesity causes manny comorbidities, and overweight people make up for vast majority of health insurer spending. Health insurance expenditures didn’t went up all while increasing spending in the weightloss and obesity care sector. So increasing efforts effectively in obesity care will only win insurers clients.
BULLISH. If in doubt just ask yourself, if there is the reason not to have a snack, if you can loose roughly a fifth of your bodyweight in less than 1.5 years.
Earnigs at 05/02.
Position: CALLs 17/01 USD 86 and 21/02 USD86; USD92.
https://preview.redd.it/cwhfmpm5syce1.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=715d6d1a43953564b0b636e3e9164f2b258864fa
EDIT and updates regarding some comments and recent published news:
'Tariff man‘ Novo Nordisk has just bought factories for USD16.5 B of Catalent in the US This comes as an answer to the high demand for weight loss drugs, but will bypass any tariffs by Mango man.
Catalent deal Catalent has been a contractor for Novo Nordisk and has now been acquired for USD16.5B USD11B for three medical drug manufacturing facilities. NVO is increasing it‘s US foothold to fulfill the high demand. Bullish.
Medicare price negotiations:
Prices for 15 drugs, which are proven effective will be included in the US-Medicare price negotiations, cause they are considered expensive.
That's two more years high yield of Ozempic. Meanwhile demand stays high.
High-Dosage Ozempic grants 20.7% loss of overall bodyweight.
No need for a new FDA approval, just triple the recommended dose of 2.4mg Semaglutide. Results of this study with n=1,407 Patients will be published during this year.
'Ozempic-cliff-off' Ozempic is patented until 2031. NVO develops another GLP-1 for sure.
Meanwhile Cagrisema is entering the market. (22.7% bodyweight reduction over 68 weeks)
So Cagrisema is basically a combination of Semaglutide (GLP-1 analogon) Cagrilintide, an insulin cosynergetic peptide. Cagrilintide, which is long acting synthetic version and analogon of Amylin, basically slowing down digestion and dampening the Glucose spikes (and then crashing) and thus reduce Insulin secretion. While doing so it offsets insulin resistance. Patients feel noticably less hungry, which is a big part in weight loss.
Cagrisema not only achieves tremendous weight loss, it's also a very managable weight loss for patients. The Combination of Semaglutide and Cagrilintide itself is a formulation. Pharmaceutical patents are granted for new, useful, and non-obvious inventions - it's NVOs new money printer. It's safe, it's easy, Insurers love it and it will Make Adipose Guys/Gals Anneal that fat off.
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$PLUG PlugPower could ROCKET this week on DOE Loan confirmation [Must Read DD]
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Plug Power is a leading company in the hydrogen fuel cell industry. They are arguably the most "legit" hydrogen play with over 150 patents and Walmart and Amazon partnerships. However this isn't about the company long term. **It's about $1.6B coming there way any day now from a DOE Loan.**
First the setup. A huge amount—25%—of their shares have been sold without first being owned *if you know what I mean*. "Non-owner sellers" think the company will die with the Trump admin coming in and that this loan won't get through before his inaguration.
However that's not shaping up to be true. The market cap is 2.4 billion. They are about to receive $1.6B from the Department of Energy. Why am I confident this will occur?
1. Biden is [rushing to push through DOE loans](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Bidens-Transition-Loan-Rush-Hits-38-Billion.html) before Trump takes office on Jan 20th and has done $38B so far
2. The PlugPower CEO has ***literally*** said they are just crossing t's and dotting Is, and that there is a high probability the loan is [confirmed this week](https://renewablesnow.com/news/interview-plugs-ceo-confident-about-loan-deal-and-future-under-trump-1269142/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1736528144)
3. There was a report that the DOE [website updated PlugPower's page](https://hntrbrk.com/plug-power-2/) on Friday, with a history of updating pages a 2-3 business days before loans closes are announced and on weekdays.
4. This means if it were to come before Trump it would be announced this week as he takes office next Monday.
5. Additionally, the company has said it might bring another equity investor on board after the loan closes, which might likely be one of its partners (Amazon or Walmart). This would be another positive "surprise".
This loan is at an insanely low interest rate for such a risky company of 5.5% per year. I have no view on the long term viability of the company, and frankly I don't care at all. But this is the best imaginable news for the equity. It's as if they raised 1.6B of free money without dilution which would be *unheard of*. This is again like 70% of the market cap.
*It means that "non-owner sellers" no longer can rely on offerings to buy shares.*
This is a loan, so they will pay it back, but it essentially gives this company a massive lifeline and would likely cause a scramble for shares and the interest rate is only 5.5% which is essentially equivalent to what the company can get by investing the money into T-bills, so it's "free money" (though of course they may use it to run operations).
When the loan was first announced, the stock jumped 20% and it has since sold off 40% from there on fears the loan wouldn't get through before Trump. A lot could change this week!
[Ride or Die](https://preview.redd.it/5yhxqvwgxuce1.png?width=610&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3cd73b6c51eae888fea6b4da0439fd5d6c540de)
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These puts could be 20 Baggers. Turn $1,000 into $20,000
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I want to keep this DD super simple. $DJT, Trump's "tech" company where he owns a controlling stake called Trump Media & Technology Group. Everyone knowns their financials are a dumpster fire, and the company has NEVER traded based on any real value or earnings. Seriously, take a glance at them. This is purely a game of selling to the greatest fool, and we all know it. If you just look at the chart, it's glaringly obvious: the stock spikes wildly on hype, then crashes back down. Let's take a look at what fueled these unsustainable pumps in the recent past:
Jun 27th 2024: First Presidential debate with Trump / Biden - Stock went up 50% THEN COLLAPSED.
Jul 12th 2024: Trump got shot, the stock pumped 30% and then COLLAPSED and slowly bled out.
Oct 28th 2024: Trump MSG rally with Elon's support. Stock spiked 50% THEN COLLAPSED.
The final catalyst, and what could be the mother of all sell-offs, is the Inauguration happening on Jan 20th (next week). It'll be a major event, sure, but once the news cycle moves on, the hype will evaporate faster than a fart in the wind. With the current valuation completely detached from reality, $DJT is primed for a massive correction. The selling pressure will build as people race to close, as we've seen time and time again with this turd. Now, the risk here is that $DJT somehow keeps pumping to around $50 or so, but then that means puts will be even more profitable. This ticker has been pumped and dumped so many times, it's hard for it to get erect at this point. That said, my current (yes, small) position is below:
[I will likely close this later today, and then if another pump happens later, add around 10k in $32 Jan 31 puts.](https://preview.redd.it/aodq2salpsce1.png?width=1472&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa36adade8fe3eebef0d8f79551f39654c2e6006)
EDIT: Initial position was mostly a gamble. I closed up 35% hours ago. If DJT pumps to \~$50 later, I'll buy in with a larger position. Jan 31 or Feb puts.
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EIX is responsible for burning down an entire neighborhood
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Hello All,
First and foremost - my condolences to all those who are effected by the wildfires in Los Angeles. It's truly a terrible situation, and as you will see, a completely preventable one.
On the night of Tuesday, January 7th, Los Angeles experienced historical winds reaching in excess of 80 mph. During that night there were a few fires that started and quickly spread, the Palisades fire and the Eaton Canyon Fire. We will be focusing on the latter.
Southern California Edison (ticker symbol EIX) is the main power provider for the Altadena, Pasadena, and many other Southern California neighborhoods. As you can read in this thread -- [https://www.reddit.com/r/pasadena/comments/1hynfjr/who\_was\_responsible\_for\_the\_eaton\_canyon\_fire/](https://www.reddit.com/r/pasadena/comments/1hynfjr/who_was_responsible_for_the_eaton_canyon_fire/)
They were servicing the Altadena neighborhood near Eaton Canyon and during that night they said that they turned off the power lines, when in fact, many neighborhoods reported that they still had electricity right before the power went off and even after.
I will also submit to you this video from a survivor of the fire -- [https://www.reddit.com/r/pasadena/comments/1hzdlo8/have\_you\_all\_seen\_this\_how\_eaton\_fire\_started/](https://www.reddit.com/r/pasadena/comments/1hzdlo8/have_you_all_seen_this_how_eaton_fire_started/)
Which clearly shows that the fire started underneath a power line station.
Given the historic precedence for these fires (both Hawaiian Electric (HE) for the Laihana fire and Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) for the Camp fire). I believe that Edison will be found responsible and liable for the Eaton Canyon fire and the rising death toll (up to 24 at this time).
Yes they have dropped - but I believe they will continue to drop. The PCG settlement for the Camp Fire literally bankrupted PCG and cost them $13.5B -- [https://www.wattstrialfirm.com/powerful-results/historic-13-billion-pge-wildfire-settlemen/](https://www.wattstrialfirm.com/powerful-results/historic-13-billion-pge-wildfire-settlemen/)
I can see a similar settlement being reached by Edison before the end of year - which would bring their market cap down significantly from the current level of 23B to somewhere in the range of 10-15B which would represent a stock price of around \~$38 conservatively
Also like I said - this is a horrible tragedy and the only reason I don't feel guilty about making money off it is because these companies end up just increasing rates to pay their fines. No one loses out but the current shareholders, there is never corporate responsibility or punishment for these greedy companies that put shareholder profit above safety. Open to questions, comments, concerns
Positions below --
https://preview.redd.it/kqsu1qhc0sce1.png?width=2846&format=png&auto=webp&s=da8e86e6502e8bed82a8514a7105e0132e9db990
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These calls could be 100 Baggers. Turn $1,000 into $100,000
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Okay, so everyone remembers me when I gave you the 500 bagger play on $DJT in March and everyone made a ton of money. I also gave the $DJT play in Jan and in Sep 2024. Well we're back one final time.
I want to keep this DD super simple. $DJT is Trump's tech company he owns like 60% of called Trump Media & Technology Group. Everyone knows their earnings are shit but the company has NEVER traded based on earnings. The stock has been trading for 4 years now (first as DWAC now as DJT). If you look at the chart over the past 4 years the stock basically trades flat but has these insane 100% - 300% pumps for a week and then falls again. Let's look at what caused these insane run ups in the past.
* Nov 2022: Trump announces he was running for President - **Stock went up 100% in a week**
* Jan 2024: Trump wins Iowa Primary - **Stock went up 300% in a week**
* Jun 2024: First Presidential debate with Trump / Biden - **Stock went up 60% in a week**
* Sep/Oct 2024: Presidential Election run-up - **Stock went up 400% in a couple weeks**
The final play in my opinion is the Inauguration happening **Jan 20th** (next week). It's going to be the biggest event in the world that day, everyone's going to be there and Trump will officially be President of the United States. I believe $DJT is going to have an insane run-up starting on Monday (we were green Friday even though the market was blood red). My positions are below:
https://preview.redd.it/mlu0pd9u0fce1.png?width=2398&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c4527ea0b5890466b23df7c0580ed5b2fedecde
**Positions:** Shares and OTM calls. I believe the Inauguration run-up will start Monday. I could be wrong, but if I am wrong, this will be the first time there's a major event with Trump that $DJT did NOT run up. So I am 95% sure I'll be right.
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$RGTI needs to come clean on revenue sources, or Jensen is right
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Hey all,
It's your favorite RGTI short story teller.
Below is the shortest short thesis I wrote on RGTI a week a go and made 10X on my puts.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hsszsq/rgti\_management\_sold\_at\_2\_giving\_us\_the\_shortest/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hsszsq/rgti_management_sold_at_2_giving_us_the_shortest/)
Here is the main issue with RGTI - they are not issuing a release saying Jensen is full of it. Why is that?
All they need to do is answer these questions:
**1. How much of their revenue is grant money from DARPA** **or other governmental agencies?**
**2. How much of their grant money from DARPA or other governmental agencies has been "earned" and how much is a true grant which will be collected whether they complete milestones or not?**
**3. How much of their revenues are from quantum hardware that they themselves have produced and commercialized?**
[https://www.google.com/search?q=Rigetti+Computing+receives+a+DARPA+grant](https://www.google.com/search?q=Rigetti+Computing+receives+a+DARPA+grant)
I bet that we will not hear any of these answers from RGTI any time soon.
Disclosure: I own RGTI puts which I will add trim, or close out as I see fit.
EDIT: Fumbled today's puts and closed the call spread, so I only own the $7 for next week. Need a 30% drop to be ATM, but given the legal investigations and short sellers getting activated, next week might prove interesting. My position in the $7 puts is twice as large as was my $15 put position last week. I will trade more as I deem appropriate.
https://preview.redd.it/bg0wi14fa7ce1.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=711331ba789552ffd8fa2db4eaa06b1968756e1e
**EDIT: sold the 7 puts for this week at 1.44 which is about 6X. tomorrow the CEO is speaking so I did not want to risk the irrational market taking something out of context. If I were there these 3 would be my main questions, in addition to " "Why the hell did you sell stock at $2?" but I will not be there. more trades are coming shortly either this week or next.**
https://preview.redd.it/dotpdpukrtce1.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=d57c4d8fa17ca82035ab955a3ef8cbf8ac64e71f
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Is Qatari Sheikh planning to take over Papa John’s?
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Papa Johns has been dishing shitty pizza and shittier returns for a long time now
But it looks like it caught the eye of a Qatari sheikh who just created a hedge fund with a strategic partner who has the experience and intention to take PZZA private or at least shake things up
Some hedge fund called Irth Capital Management LP filed their first and so far only [13F on January 2nd](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2046144/000149315225000031/0001493152-25-000031-index.htm) disclosing a massive new position in PZZA. During the fourth quarter of 2024, and most likely only after November for reasons I'll explain below, Irth bought 1,628,503 shares in PZZA for $66,882,618. Irth now owns 4.99% of PZZA
But who is behind Irth Capital Management LP? According to Irth's offering [Form ADV and Part 2A of Form ADV](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/330696), Irth is a money manager formed on November 14, 2024. Irth has over $202 million AUM from only 4 clients
Pulling from Irth's Part 2A, their stated investment objective and strategy include the following:
* Irth implements a systematic, event driven, fundamental constructivist investment strategy, investing in both public and private companies. Irth focuses its research primarily on areas where it has deep domain expertise and long-term relationships such as: Food and Agriculture, Consumer Goods, **Restaurants**, Leisure, Hospitality, Supply Chain Logistics, Government, Data, and Technology.
* Irth’s investment decisions reflect Irth’s core principles: concentration, deep fundamental research, and **control**.
* Irth’s Strategic Fund generally consists of 8-15 core, event driven, long only positions.
Irth discloses in their Part 2A that their *private equity investments **will often originate as an investment on the public equity side**; therefore, Irth creates many of its own opportunities and does so at what it believes to be attractive valuations. Once a **public-to-private** sale process begins, Irth has an information and speed advantage given that it has already been researching the company, its industry, customers, and competitors for months, sometimes years.*
Irth makes it clear that they are active, not passive, investors in their Part 2A: *Irth’s investment philosophy is based on the active management of the reorganization process of its portfolio companies and influencing and directing the post-reorganization business strategy, management and operations of its portfolio companies.*
So what we know so far is Irth was formed in November 2024 with $202 million from 4 investors with a mandate to either take public companies private or engage in shareholder activism. We also know that almost immediately after forming their fund, Irth took a nearly 5% and $67 million position in PZZA which happens to be in Irth's target industries. Irth's $67 million position in PZZA represents almost one-third of their entire AUM which is quite a YOLO
But who really is Irth and why am I talking about a Qatari sheikh?
Irth was co-founded by two people: [Matthew Bradshaw](https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-bradshaw-1011617/) and [Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulla Al Thani](https://www.linkedin.com/in/sheikh-mohamed-bin-abdulla-al-thani-133663341/)
Matthew Bradshaw is formerly the founder and managing partner of Durational Capital Management which took Bojangles private in 2019
Sheikh Mohamed bin Abdulla Al Thani is a Qatari sheikh who was most recently the CEO the Qatari sovereign wealth fund's Americas group
If it's good enough for a Qatari sheikh to YOLO, it's good enough for me to YOLO. I'm in for 1,000 shares at an average basis of $39.59 - screenshot is attached
https://imgur.com/a/J0TU2ZA
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Rumors of HUMA's demise are greatly exaggerated
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This DD on HUMA requires the reader to be a bit off mentally. So I couldn't think of a better stage than this dumpster fire of a sub (behind Wendy's). After rimming the $10 level this summer, the stock has settled under $5 despite [FDA approval.](https://investors.humacyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/humacyte-announces-fda-approval-symvesstm-acellular-tissue) Some say FDA approval was more than priced-in, but what's important is to look at how the stock got here from $10 and what the company's prospects look like in comparison to its Enterprise Value and cash runway.
First, wtf is HUMA? They are the only FDA-approved, commercial-scale manufacturer of universally implantable human tissue. In five weeks their product is ready for shipment, [according to the CEO](https://investors.humacyte.com/events/event-details/piper-sandler-36th-annual-healthcare-conference). The first FDA approval they got on December 19, 2024 is for Vascular Trauma. They expect FDA approval for more indications this year and next. [Peak sales projection](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1818382/000121390021009958/ea135854ex99-2_alphahealth.htm) is $12 billion for current late-stage pipeline products. TAM is $150 billion. The median price to sales ratio for biotech firms producing biological implants is [14.7](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1d5wjpt/huma_dd_yolo_is_there_still_room_to_grow_after_a/) and biotech generally is 7.14. Either way, this is potentially a micro-cap to large-cap story.
[Two more indications in stage 3](https://preview.redd.it/dba8jsx14ece1.png?width=1898&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bbf620105823abe0f1db7c619d76d9efc72e28c)
Why then, is it trading at an almost 200% yield to the average analyst [estimate](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUMA/analysis/)? This part is a cluster fuck, but bear with me as I simplify it into four points. First the CEO Laura Niklason and her husband and HUMA board member Brady Dougan jointly seemed to [sell](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HUMA/insider-transactions/) a huge chunk of shares since summer. However, notes to the [filings](https://humacyte.gcs-web.com/node/9691/html) state that the husband needed liquidity for the troubles with his other company, Exos Financial. Basically, dude's a banker who started his own bank and effectively got margin called. He's "special" just like us!
Second, within just a few days of their first large sale, the number of shares short in the stock went way up and it continued to rise 607% after the FDA delayed its decision to approve HUMA's first indication on August 10, 2024:
[Number of shares short up 607%](https://preview.redd.it/wuuj9hpy2ece1.png?width=562&format=png&auto=webp&s=5eb39ac779cf46caecb7d38a6e95fe9636625fa5)
To make matters worse, Martin Shkreli revealed he is short on HUMA via [X](https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1841148167758196801) and youtube, but published no detailed rationale. He just said he trusted the research of a guy he found (more on this later). A lot of traders respect his take on stocks and bio tech, so he has high credibility to influence them to join him in shorting it. The 12 month mark passed with no FDA decision on December 11, 2024 for HUMA's BLA submission for their first indication.
On December 17, 2024 a short seller published a convincing and highly technical short [report](https://x.com/anthonystaj/status/1869146356893544814) arguing that the FDA would reject the BLA for the first indication and that HUMA would soon after run out of cash and die. I speculate that this is the guy Shkreli mentioned. Funnily enough, the FDA [approved](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/humacyte-announces-fda-approval-symvess-034700671.html) HUMA's SYMVESS on December 19, 2024.
So they did what any sensible trader would do. They dug their heels in and married their short positions. Martin Shkreli [asked](https://x.com/MartinShkreli/status/1869958965037281611) people to short the FDA pop. This was soon after his success shorting $SAVA so a lot more people joined in to create a shorting frenzy. Even though the stock was up 45% in the middle of trading day, out-of-the-money puts were up over [10,000%](https://x.com/BizJewish/status/1870152818058797154).
The crux of their argument is that HUMA's FDA approval for SYMVESS is useless, because it's too expensive and provides too little additional benefit over competitor products per clinical trail metrics. What they refuse to accept is that there is still a great business case for SYMVESS. They also argue that HUMA's future products will not be FDA approved due to clinical trial issues.
HUMA's tech was praised by the Department of Defense (DoD) in a [report](https://blastinjuryresearch.health.mil/assets/docs/acute_treatment/fy16/extremity_injury/TissueEngineered_Vascular_Grafts.pdf) they published in 2016. In fact, they've issued $7m in grants to HUMA and were key in pushing for FDA approval via Public Law [115-92](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/medical-countermeasure-collaborations/fdadod-collaborations). The DoD explains in that report above: "IED wounds are always “dirty”, and bacteria in the wound can colonize the synthetic graft, causing abscesses and sepsis, therefore there is a need for \[an\] alternative \[like SYMVESS\] \[...\] The \[SYMVESS\] grafts are also self-healing making them amenable to the frequent re-cannulation required for \[Hemodialysis\]." Such benefits do not show up in the clinical trial data.
These benefits are a crucial differentiator though. Plastic and cow grafts are not recognized by the human body as part of itself. However, SYMVESS and other HUMA products make the body think and act like it's repairing itself as usual, because the material is real human tissue. The body populates it with its own cells. That's why they have never had a single episode of [rejection](https://x.com/humacyte/status/1696175066818453518?s=09). Zero rejections across several clinical trials involving hundreds of patients. Rejections are insanely expensive and they happen with plastic and cow grafts.
Zero rejections is the main advantage of SYMVESS and it is completely ignored by the shorts. The CEO of the company [explains](https://x.com/humacyte/status/1696175066818453518), "We've implanted hundreds of patients inside the US and outside the US, and we've never had a single episode of rejection." So synthetic grafts can be made to have similar data with modern medications that prevent clotting and infections, but there are immeasurable long-term benefits to using actual human tissue populated by the patient's own cells.
This is why countless surgeons with decades of experience love HUMA's tech:
"I am most excited about the promise that Symvess holds for the long-term experience of our patients. I hope that, with Symvess, the 19-year-old patient with vascular reconstruction after trauma will no longer spend the six decades after their surgery anticipating disaster, but that their chances for reintervention will be no different than if they had autologous conduit.”
\- Dr. Rishi Kundi, a clinical investigator at the University of Maryland Medical System
I won't bore you with quotes but here's a few names to Google if you want their thoughts on SYMVESS:
Dr. Michael C., the chief of vascular surgery at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School
Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research
Dr. Nicole Verdun, director of the Office of Therapeutic Products at FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research
Charles J. Fox, MD, FACS, Director of Vascular Surgery, University of Maryland Capital Region
Ernest E. Moore, MD, FACS, Director of Research, Ernest E. Moore Shock Trauma Center at Denver Health
HUMA's next indication due for approval is dialysis, where again the clinical trail data seems comparable, but the CEO explained the main advantage in response to an analyst question, "One of the Chief Medical Officers from Fresenius \[our dialysis partner\] joined us at the post-presentation lunch after ASN and his biggest comment and what he said mattered most to him, because he oversees a lot of the provision of care at dialysis centers is a decrease in catheter time and exposure in terms of reimbursement for the services Fresenius provides is huge for them."
Obviously you could argue the advantages being outside the scope of clinical trials make FDA approval an uphill battle for HUMA's future indications, but that's where DoD backing via Public Law 115-92 comes in to push through FDA hurdles. It was during Trump's first administration that DoD financially backed HUMA in 2017, so the incoming administration is on board. Physicians and hospital administrators already see the nuanced healthcare and business advantages.
Sales to DoD are a given at this point. In that 2016 report, they state, "These \[SYMVESS grafts\] can be shipped to hospitals and field locations, and can be stored until needed." Meaning DoD will stockpile not just for battle readiness worldwide, but also for the Strategic National Stockpile and domestic trauma centers. Shelf life is 18 months so they will restock and provide recurring revenue.
Sales to healthcare customers are not difficult, because it's intuitively better vs plastic, cow, or risky and time-consuming traditional vein grafts. It's more expensive, but it's easy for the healthcare customers to understand how it can save a lot more money on unnecessary autologous vein procedures and in the long-run due to rejections of plastic or cow vein substitutes.
Yes SYMVESS got a black box warning from FDA due to rare thrombosis (clotting) and rupture risks that their competitor products don't have. But a lot of FDA approved stuff has black label warnings. Some examples: Ozempic, Altace, Wegovy, Celebrex, Fortamet, Paxil, Prozac, Warfarin, Pradaxa, etc. What's more, the final [FDA report ](https://www.fda.gov/media/185033/download?attachment=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery)on SYMVESS approval contains only one restriction for its use vs three restrictions for the current standard-of-care fistula.
This won't inhibit sales one bit. According to [a vascular surgeon](https://x.com/medtechmd/status/1878071426931957806), "there has been no innovation in this indication for decades," and SYMVESS is likely to be used off-label in all areas of the body, because of the risks and added procedure cost with Saphenous Vein harvest. SYMVESS is way more predictable and off-the-shelf, according the same surgeon. The major long-term advantages, high praise from the medical community, and an unusual [press release](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-acellular-tissue-engineered-vessel-treat-vascular-trauma-extremities) by the FDA itself that expressed excitement about the approval confirm this.
"The total lifetime health-care cost projected for patients undergoing amputation ($509,275) was more than three times higher than that for patients undergoing reconstruction ($163,282)." - [Health-Care Costs Associated with Amputation or Reconstruction of a Limb-Threatening Injury](https://journals.lww.com/jbjsjournal/fulltext/2007/08000/health_care_costs_associated_with_amputation_or.3.aspx)
Plastic and cow vein graft substitutes have a much higher rate of amputation. Also the autologous vein method requires a whole another procedure to extract a section of vein from another place in the body. The cost of another procedure is way higher than SYMVESS. $25k is chump change in comparison.
On the balance-sheet front, HUMA has no debt and a tiny lease liability. Other liabilities are non-cash (royalties). No production reason to need cash, unless sales are great. Five weeks to relabel and ship thousands of grafts on-hand. Just received a $40m milestone investment due to FDA approval. Plus they raised $45m in Q4 and will get another $50m this year if they sell 1,187 units (out of 26,000 potential) of SYMVESS. That's more than enough cash for all of 2025, so no dilution in sight.
The forest vs trees analogy on HUMA is that you have a company fighting to establish a synthetic human tissue platform for 20 years. They have strategically overcome many forms of crisis without taking on any debt, and just got de-risked via FDA approval. It's a terrible short with 30% SI, and a great long as a micro-cap to large-cap story.
[Position](https://www.reddit.com/user/moazzam0/comments/1hy11rc/huma_position/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button): 210 $4.50 Calls 1/17
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Meta ⭐️5
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Playing the TikTok ban. Posting for the 4th time….
¥\~Previous Events
=They posted beautiful numbers during earnings but Mark started talking about bad AI numbers and the market panicked a bit.
=The market was digesting Meta's insane comeback anyway. They need something big to impress outside of expected large ad numbers.
= 3-0 unanimous decision by an appeals court decision to uphold Tiktok ban in December
¥\~Present
What about if one of their competitors vanishes overnight? We are playing the TikTok ban. This canon event is being heavily discounted.
It's down to nine people after that it cannot be changed. Trump submitted the amicus brief as this will be the last chance he could stop the ban without getting into some serious issues with his chosen board and Congress with both sides supporting the bill. With everything else that's on his plate, I believe Trump will call a spade a spade and will look into it and say he tried. He's already got the election win from Tiktok he doesn't need it as much and with Zuck now onside he can still push what he needs to push. The moves.
This is down to nine people and how they see national security. I've read up on the defense and prosecution legal appeals from before the original appeals trial (160 pages) and the US DOJ has an incredibly strong case, which is why the appeals court voted 3-0.
Each judge has a different view on amendments and their importance vs national security however we can base from the previous judges arguments that this is quite open and shut as three judges reached the same conclusion with two judges differing on the interpretation but arriving at the same conclusion.
If this goes through...it will get bigger than the initial 10% gain with the appeals decision. It will create a rally at which point there'll be many spots to take profit. The longer this ban stays in place the more of a rally Meta will gain (Snapchat, Google, possibly Reddit, too) but we bet on the big horse first.
The ad dollars on offer are gonna get carved up like a prize beast and these ad companies are going to add the spoils to their market cap.
Here are my estimates for possible results based on everything with 5-4 enough to uphold the ban.
5-4 Stay/Strike down
5-4 Uphold
6-3 Uphold
7-2 Uphold
My prediction: 6-3 Uphold
¥\~Future - Guidance/Event
Facebook delivered great numbers and good guidance except for AI comments. However, this quarter they'll be carving up a big slice of the ad pie.
Creatives: So quick admission I used to work in social advertising years ago and the creatives as they are known are the images and videos used for a digital advert and they come locked into certain aspect ratios and formats. This means companies that have locked in months of creatives from agencies will have to move their TikTok ads somewhere the format works. Snap, Google, and of course Meta (Big Horse)
Facebook's ad budget: Is going to swell and we all know that the catalyst will be continuing the rally when they announce earnings in Early February.
¥\~Key Dates = January 10th, January 19th, January 20th
¥\~Risks to thesis = Ban does not go through - This is a binary event, the probabilities are high that it will go through but it is always possible it does not.
¥\~Checks = Last appeals decision Meta went up 10% in the lead-up to the appeals decision although this was not the final decision so this has the potential to rise further.
¥\~Long-term potential = Once the vote goes through will re-up and hold medium/longer-term options.
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Moderna (MRNA) upside potential
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Lots of bad news in 2024 crashed the stock from its high of 166$ (May 2024) namely:
1) Declining covid-19 vaccine sales
2) Revised business outlook for long term about sales
3) R&D cuts and loss of investor confidence
4) RFK Jr running HHS (vaccine denial)
5) News of one vaccine side effects in elderly
Current price: 45$ (near 52 week low)
All time high: 385$ (2021)
I am no investment expert but I feel the stock is oversold (my gut says so)
Reasons I believe for decent upside potential:
1) HMPV virus cases in China and slowly popping in other countries will cause some panic in the upcoming months leading to vaccine developments potentially
2) Bad handling of health crisis and vaccine denial of the upcoming administration will lead to outbreaks
3) Moderna is also developing some cancer vaccines and combinations vaccines
4) Potential for breakthroughs in medicine and good news
5) How much more can it go down?
My positions:
45$ c 7/18/25 exp +4
45$ c 1/16/26 exp +3
45$ c 6/18/26 exp +2
Luckily seeing a pre-market gain of +6% since I bought
What do you all think about this gamble? Not sure if this post counts as DD
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CVNA puts…what yall think
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Got CVNA puts 12/26/24 ..thank god for Hindi
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The current U.S. stock market valuation has reached 2000 and 2021 levels. Will this time be different?
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Three different U.S. stock market valuation models (the Buffett Indicator, CAPE ratio, and Mean Reversion Model - three different ways of objectively looking at the overall valuation of the current market) are flashing extreme overvaluation warning signs that were both last seen in 2000 and 2021. Both 2000 and 2021 marked market euphoria highs, and bear markets followed. You can make all your jokes that you want about gay bears successfully calling 420 of the last 69 recessions or what not, but the undeniable fact is that the track record of these three valuation models showing "strongly overvalued" in unison is 2 for 2 in "calling" bear markets that followed very quickly. Will history repeat itself again? Or is this time different (i.e. - valuations continue to "not matter" for longer)?
[Buffett Indicator \(ratio of U.S. stocks total market cap to GDP\) - Strongly overvalued \(2 standard deviations above historical trendline\). Just like it was in 2000 and 2021.](https://preview.redd.it/gngm7i231abe1.jpg?width=1680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e03e76ec35654e8eea252751c28f6684f66ae4e)
\-
[Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings \(CAPE\) Ratio - Also strongly overvalued. Tied with 2021, but a bit less \\"deviant\\" than it was in 2000.](https://preview.redd.it/pvwgetg1w9be1.jpg?width=1664&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca3c67e0787a248277f1b620ed01bed7281a69ca)
\-
[S&P 500 Mean Reversion Model - Strongly overvalued - tied with 2000 and 2021.](https://preview.redd.it/4uxqj2gxz9be1.jpg?width=1662&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25951a195b5363c0b4476b25963d206e5d51d7f0)
There is also a fourth model - the Interest Rate Model, which measures S&P 500 valuation relative to current 10-year treasury rate. It hasn't quite hit the "strongly overvalued" line (it didn't in 2021 either), but it is pretty close to it.
[Interest Rate Model - Not quite to the \\"strongly overvalued\\" red line, but close. Lower than it was in 2000, but higher than it was in 2021.](https://preview.redd.it/32sl4e1o4abe1.jpg?width=1660&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dedfffde7edc549734c8c0747c3e3356ceba79bb)
Two recession risk models - Yield Curve Inversion and the Sahm Rule - may be signaling a rough time as well.
[Yield Curve - The 10-Year to 3-Month treasury spread, after big and long inversion, looks like it may be uninverting now. Historically, recessions or bear markets followed soon after the uninversion.](https://preview.redd.it/iuek8qe66abe1.jpg?width=1651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b11f04747d4069dc6305dbe7d8a631243308b2b8)
\-
[Sahm Rule value - a measure of the current 3-month moving average of unemployment compared to the prior 12-month low of that same stat. It poked just above the red line, then retreated a bit. Right now it is kind of in \\"Will it or won't it?\\" mode.](https://preview.redd.it/hjkkkzdt8abe1.jpg?width=1673&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0151bc58c63c00c2c482642dc2df0f2be53e2173)
\-
There is also the Fed Funds Rate. It is showing a similar setup to previous cycles of rate hikes, followed by rate holds, followed by rate cuts, followed by recession. The current setup looks similar to 2007-2008 especially. Will the recession or bear market be cancelled this time with "mission accomplished - soft landing achieved"?
[Fed Funds Rate - 2007-2008 looks pretty similar to now.](https://preview.redd.it/1w999tosaabe1.jpg?width=1715&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f016a2cda57106d33d7f0b85e303a8199bdb4d6f)
Here is the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 on a log scale chart. It has historically gone through a series of "hot" periods where the market beats inflation for roughly 15 years (give or take a few years), followed by "cold" periods where the market loses to inflation that last 10 years (give or take a few years). The magnitude and time length of the current "hot" period looks like it could be giving way to a "cold" period soon if the overall historical cycle is followed.
[Inflation adjusted S&P 500 - Are we entering a cooling period soon?](https://preview.redd.it/p82of78idabe1.jpg?width=977&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da3a49111a2c512564846f330f2053baaa628f2c)
Last but not least, I'll list a few informal "Can't you just feel it it in the room?" type "blow-off top" indicators of a potential market top:
1. Tesla stock doubled in price in like 1-2 months on shallow narratives not backed by numbers. An insane $750 billion market cap to an even more insane $1.5 trillion market cap in 1-2 months on a company earning roughly $13 billion annually (132 P/E ratio right now) and not growing much anymore. Ludicrous. Earnings have not exploded in line with stock price, not nearly at all. I don't care what you TSLA lovers say - your stock valuation is insane and offers no fundamental upside even with pricing in your optimistic assumptions about future growth.
2. Palantir stock also doubled in price in like 1-2 months, also on shallow narratives not backed by numbers. Roughly $100 billion to $180 billion market cap with a price-to-SALES ratio going from an insane 30x to an even more insane 67x. Ludicrous. And I don't care what you PLTR lovers say - your stock valuation is insane and offers no fundamental upside even with pricing in your optimistic assumptions about future growth.
3. *\[Removing this point from discussion because AutoMod thought I was breaking rule #8, even though I wasn't. I pasted it down in the comments section* [*HERE*](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1hv91vx/comment/m5ssco9/)*.\]*
4. Just the mentality of too many market participants buying ponzi-scheme like assets or money-burning trash companies at all in general, often knowingly. Like, seriously, why is this even a thing? What the fuck is wrong with this market? This shouldn't be happening... like, at all.
5. The great momentum chase of 2024. The theme of the year was to just bid up and crowd into the most popular meme-like line-go-up assets, regardless of fundamentals. It went into over-drive in November/December, to the point of self-parody. It has a very end-stage bull market feeling to it.
6. The great AI hype. Does the potential future of AI justify many of these extreme valuations? Maybe, but I'm not convinced that there's much upside left near-term. The only companies making serious money from this so far are Nvidia and the handful of companies selling the AI hardware to other companies that are speculating on it. And the once rapid progression in generative AI chatbots, picture generators, and video generators seen in 2023 and early 2024 seems to have slowed and hit a bit of a wall in the second half of 2024.
TL;DR - All the warning signs of extreme overvaluation and an incoming bear market are there. Unlike most other gay bear posts that usually just show one "warning sign" chart to make a case, I showed you multiple charts, along with multiple observations. Whether you choose to ignore them or not depends on how long you think the market will choose to ignore them or not.
Positions: (1) Bent over a table. (2) Puts on TSLA, PLTR, MSTR, and some other 2024 momentum clown stocks for 2025. Contemplating whether to inverse or to inverse my inverse.
Update: 1/7 Pre-market - I have taken down the screenshot of my tentative positions from 1/6, because I will be closing some of them and changing some things around. For archival purposes, you may view my original 1/6 positions [here](https://i.imgur.com/J0orM1x.jpeg).
Update: 1/6 7:00PM EST - Cramer on his closing segment on "Mad Money" just said "I think Palantir and Tesla stock are DEFINITELY going higher." Take that for what you will. I know the meme is to inverse Cramer, but he does end up being right short-term a number of times, so it doesn't really make me any more confident in my puts.
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2025 Options Mispricing
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4-14 day OTM call options on US indexes will be mispriced in 2025 due to market under pricing Trump effect.
The heat map shows % movement of SPY over time last year. SPY moved >2% 23 times over 3 days and 34 times over 4 days. c10% of trading days.
So we could buy an option every day or wait only for low IV weekly entries and we will print huge gains overall - selling when IV is high after a 2% bump is easy gains.
Positions below bought at c2-3% below strike mid-last week.
https://preview.redd.it/btxvd2pk9ebe1.png?width=3100&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd19e9393d747aaf8c6684e2c08982a5d49e0baa
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"New" Volkswagen Leaks
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Alright degenerates, strap in because this is why Volkswagen might just be the juiciest short of 2025. Spoiler alert: this makes Dieselgate look like a warmup.
My Position: Just opened a -0,4 Delta 80€ put on Volkswagen (Vz.) for 5000 € expiring 19th June 26.
The Chaos Computer Club just (27.12.24) just revealed that Volkswagen (and its subsidiaries Audi, Seat, Skoda) exposed the real-time locations of *800,000 EVs*. That's right – anyone with basic skills could pinpoint where your $40k EV is parked, plus grab your name and contact info. VW literally left their cars and customers wide open for anyone to exploit. Volkswagen’s software arm, Cariad, stored all this sensitive data on Amazon Web Services without proper encryption or safeguards. Let me say that again: **no encryption in 2025.** That's amateur hour for a company that sells millions of cars. Oh, and this isn’t the first time VW screwed the pooch on tech; their software track record is *garbage.*
*Here is the link to their video:* [*https://media.ccc.de/v/38c3-wir-wissen-wo-dein-auto-steht-volksdaten-von-volkswagen#l=eng&t=0*](https://media.ccc.de/v/38c3-wir-wissen-wo-dein-auto-steht-volksdaten-von-volkswagen#l=eng&t=0)
**Why This Is Bigger Than Dieselgate**
Dieselgate cost Volkswagen over $30 billion in fines, lawsuits, and buybacks. But that was *emissions*. This? This is **personal data** – names, locations, potential stalking targets and members of the BND. We’re living in the post-GDPR era, where the EU doesn’t play nice with data breaches. Fines for mishandling data can be as high as 4% of annual global turnover, which for VW could mean billions. Plus, the reputational damage.
**There has not yet been a Market reaction to the release of this video.**
Also want to give you some reasons why you should not take my advice and short VW:
* Volkswagen is the biggest EV player in Europe with about 25% market share. European people don’t trust Chinese vehicles, and they don’t trust Elon Musk.
* VW is grossly undervalued compared to Tesla. We’re talking €44 billion market cap vs. €1,279 billion for Tesla. VW currently earns those €44 billion every four years.
* CCC did responsible disclosure, and VW already fixed the breach. It will be hard to prove harm done to you.
* The German state is highly invested in VW
* EU regulations require automakers to collect and process vast amounts of data to comply with emissions standards, safety protocols, and EV monitoring. The breach highlights shortcomings, but some responsibility lies with the regulatory framework. ([Source: European Commission Regulation No 2018/858](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32018R0858))
Not financial advice.
https://preview.redd.it/n8ohfkb59dbe1.jpg?width=562&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59a3c932ebac86ba02cedac1fa67560916974602
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