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Buy Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD)	Do yourself a favor and buy the dip on Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD). This company presents tremendous growth opportunities and is undervalued at $125. Position - https://preview.redd.it/bmzyqr9m28be1.png?width=495&format=png&auto=webp&s=71bbcb017580cfd035cf62b63b60e072b1430610 Q3 2024 Highlights * Revenue of $6.8 billion. 18% increase YoY. * Gross profit of $3.4 billion. 24% increase YoY. * Operating income of $724 million. 223% increase YoY. Q3 2024 By Segment Data Center - Net revenue of $3.5 billion. 122% increase YoY. Operating income of $1.04 billion. 240% increase YoY. Client - Net revenue of $1.88 billion. 29% increase YoY. Operating income of $276 million. 97% increase YoY. Gaming - Net revenue of $462 million. 69% decrease YoY. Operating income of $12 million. 94% decrease YoY. Embedded - Net revenue of $927 million. 25% decrease YoY. Operating income of $372 million. 39% decrease YoY. Data Center Growth \- This is AMD’s fastest growing segment and accounts for roughly 50% of all revenue. This number is going to continue its rapid rise due to key acquisitions and product innovation. Lisa Su estimates the market for data center AI accelerators to grow at a CAGR of 60% until the year 2028. That would value the market at $500 billion for things like CPUs, GPU’s, FPGA’s, and ASIC’s. Obviously, Nvidia currently dominates the market. Despite this, there is room for multiple players and AMD has shown their ability to capture market share. In 2022, they surpassed Intel in both market value and annual revenue, positioning themselves as the clear number two player in the market. I've said it before with companies like Palantir, data is the future and every company needs it. Well in order for a company to have data, you need chips. Everything needs chips. We are still in a small and juvenile market that has massive amounts of room to grow. Acquisition of ZT Systems \- Announced in August 2024, AMD will acquire ZT Systems for $4.9 billion. The deal is expected to be finalized in the first half of 2025. ZT specializes in designing and deploying data center AI computing and storage solutions. This shows the focus and commitment AMD has to their fastest growing segment. Strong Belief in Lisa Su - Lisa Su is an amazing CEO with a strong desire for excellency. After becoming CEO in 2014, she has completely turned around the company and continues to improve it. Here is a great video to watch of her - [https://youtu.be/8Ve5SAFPYZ8](https://youtu.be/8Ve5SAFPYZ8) https://preview.redd.it/3qpschsr28be1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=748614c675bbb1456dd4e69c61f7c5334af523fe Conclusion \- AMD is gaining significant amounts of market share for data centers, a trend that will continue as the market grows. Despite declines in the gaming and embedded segments, the company overall continues to grow revenues. The decline in gaming looks alarming but it makes sense. New gen consoles came out 4 years ago which AMD supplies chips for. Regardless, what I’m focused on here is the data center growth. AMD is innovative and managed extremely well which can be seen by continuously improving operating margins and FCF. This company will continue to become a monster. At a current price of $125, I expect this to easily get back to $200+ in 2025 giving a solid 60% upside.
NVDA	Jensen Huang, that fucking genius, has turned NVIDIA into the goddamn stock you need to bet your fucking life savings on for the next hundred fucking years. This motherfucker has the vision of a goddamn prophet, dragging NVIDIA from just making sweet-ass gaming GPUs to dominating AI, data centers, and even that self-driving car bullshit. His balls-to-the-wall leadership style, where he encourages his team to take massive fucking risks, while wearing that same leather jacket like a goddamn uniform, has created a culture where innovation fucking thrives. With his strategic expansions into every high margin tech sector under the fucking sun making NVIDIA's market cap soar, this dude has made it clear that NVIDIA isn't just a tech giant; it's the fucking future. Jensen thrives on destroying competition by being a market maker and not a share taker (AMD). So, if you're looking for where to shove your money, you better shove it up NVIDIA's ass because Jensen Huang is the real deal.
RGTI management sold at $2 giving us the shortest short thesis you will ever read	Management diluted at $2 in late November. The market did not care, and pumped it to $20 for no reason other than mass mania/hysteria. Management will most likely dilute again, but not much above $2, unless it does an at-the-money death spiral offering which will cause the funding institution to short the stock. Speaking of management, a lot of them sold their stock as soon as it ran up in November, starting at $1.3 and with most sales completed under $5. There is a pretty sad Benzinga article asking rather rhetorically whether RGTI management missed the quantum importance or their company valuation. To that I say - grow a spine and call it what it is - management never underestimates the value of their own company by a factor of 10. If anything, management overestimates it and tries to sell shares at a premium, not a 90% discount. RGTI's downfall is inevitable, no matter what technology they own. Insiders know what stock they own and where they work, otherwise they would not sell their hard earned shares below $5. Disclosure: I own $15 puts for next Friday, looking to add more as time passes. https://preview.redd.it/ftd45jyjktae1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=d97e0b1830add75878b45e52b21bba9bdf1bca51 EDIT: for some reason I can't comment on the post. Good comments all around, will keep everyone updated on future trades as I make them this week. EDIT 2: closed at 10X, will look into more trades on Friday. https://preview.redd.it/4f7ewahq3ube1.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c93a2fc47b246fb3109857cc638001dfcc843e7
ZETA DD & Great Buying Opportunity	TLDR: This company was the victim of a short report in Nov that tanked it from it's ATH of around $40. It is currently trading for half that. Most companies rebound within 6 months to their previous levels from a short report. They did a remarkable job of proving the report false and putting their money where their mouth is. The executives all bought millions of dollars of shares when it was shorted. [Interview with CEO on Short Report](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVUgOS7tpgA) Positions: I have 2543 shares at an avg price of $20.05. https://preview.redd.it/qjqh0psw4mae1.png?width=1584&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f1ae5a37f9f6e94f80ce9e65e44c4e86afe4fa7 PT: $30 by the summer. It might be too late to get in when their next earnings report hits in February. # Company Overview Founded: 2007 Headquarters: New York City, New York, USA Industry: Advertising Technology, Digital Marketing Ticker Symbol: ZETA (NYSE) Market Cap: $3.5B (as of January 2025) # Financial Performance Zeta Global's financial trajectory has been impressive in recent years, though it operates in a competitive and capital-intensive industry. Key financials for the most recent fiscal year (2023): * Revenue: $1.1B (2023, up 22% YoY) * Gross Profit Margin: 60%+ * Net Income (Loss): \-$5 million (2023) * Free Cash Flow: Positive in 2023, signaling strong operational efficiency and future growth potential. * EBITDA Margin: \~8% The company is not yet consistently profitable on a net income basis, but it has demonstrated a strong ability to scale its SaaS platform, improve margins, and reduce operating costs over time. Key Metrics: * Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): $700M (2023) * Customer Retention Rate: 90%+ * Client Base: Over 1,200 enterprise clients * Churn Rate: Low (3% annually) # Business Model Zeta Global operates primarily as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform offering a combination of data, analytics, and machine learning models. Its core offerings include: * Zeta Marketing Platform: An AI-powered marketing automation platform used for customer acquisition and retention, personalized digital marketing, and omnichannel advertising. * Zeta Data Cloud: A data-driven solution that uses first-party data, third-party data, and behavioral insights to provide deep customer segmentation and predictive analytics. * Omnichannel Advertising: The company enables businesses to target customers across multiple digital channels, including social media, email, display ads, and more. Its customers span various industries, including retail, healthcare, automotive, finance, and telecommunications. Zeta is primarily focused on providing solutions for enterprise clients, large-scale advertisers, and direct-to-consumer brands. # Key Strengths 1. Robust AI and Data Science Capabilities: Zeta's advanced machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics help clients make data-driven decisions and optimize their marketing spend. The ability to collect, clean, and analyze large volumes of data is a strong competitive advantage in the digital marketing sector. 2. Extensive Consumer Data Network: Zeta has built a massive first-party data network with more than 250 million consumer profiles across 60 million households in the U.S., which gives it a significant edge in targeting the right audience with personalized, high-conversion ads. 3. Comprehensive Marketing Platform: Unlike many competitors that specialize in one specific area (e.g., email marketing, paid search), Zeta offers an integrated platform that covers the entire marketing lifecycle from acquisition to retention, making it a one-stop shop for marketers. 4. Solid Customer Base & Partnerships: Zeta counts large, established brands as clients, including major Fortune 500 companies. This provides credibility and financial stability. The company's revenue growth has been driven by strong partnerships, especially with clients in sectors like retail and e-commerce. 5. Recent Acquisitions: Zeta has expanded its product offerings and market share through strategic acquisitions, including its purchase of LiveIntent, which provides valuable consumer data and sales leads to marketers. This has bolstered its data-driven offerings and solidified its position as a leading martech company. # Competitive Landscape The digital marketing space is highly competitive, with several prominent players offering similar solutions. Zeta Global competes with both traditional advertising agencies and newer marketing technology companies, including: * The Trade Desk (TTD): A major player in programmatic advertising and real-time bidding. * Salesforce Marketing Cloud: A well-established SaaS platform in the customer relationship management (CRM) space with strong marketing tools. * Adobe Experience Cloud: Known for its creative and marketing analytics tools, it competes directly with Zeta in terms of marketing automation. * Oracle Marketing Cloud: A suite of marketing tools, including data management, email marketing, and content targeting. * Criteo (CRTO): A competitor in the programmatic and performance marketing space. Zeta differentiates itself with its focus on AI and first-party data. The company's proprietary data network and customer insights give it a unique edge over competitors relying on third-party data sources, especially as privacy concerns and regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) shape the digital marketing industry. # Risks 1. Profitability Concerns: Although revenue growth has been strong, Zeta is not consistently profitable, and investors will need to monitor how the company navigates its path to sustained profitability. Operating in the low-margin advertising technology sector can limit earnings, especially during periods of market contraction or advertising budget cuts. 2. Data Privacy Regulations: As a data-driven company, Zeta faces regulatory challenges surrounding consumer data privacy and the evolving landscape of data laws like GDPR in Europe and CCPA in California. Compliance costs and operational disruptions could impact margins and client relationships. 3. Economic Sensitivity: Advertising spend is often one of the first areas that businesses cut during economic downturns. If the broader economy experiences a slowdown, Zeta's revenue growth could be negatively impacted. 4. Intense Competition: The digital marketing industry is crowded, with both established players and startups vying for market share. Zeta's ability to maintain its leadership position will depend on its capacity for continuous innovation, scaling operations, and retaining clients. 5. Integration of Acquisitions: The company's recent acquisitions, including LiveIntent, pose integration risks. Zeta must ensure that these acquisitions add value and don't become liabilities due to cultural differences, operational challenges, or market overlap. # Growth Strategy & Outlook Zeta Global's growth strategy is focused on: * Expanding its customer base, particularly in high-growth sectors like e-commerce, healthcare, and financial services. * Enhancing AI capabilities to further improve customer targeting and marketing effectiveness, making its platform even more indispensable to marketers. * International Expansion: The company has a growing presence in international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, where its solutions are becoming more popular. * Leveraging Acquisitions to add data assets and expand its product suite. The integration of LiveIntent is expected to yield strong results, particularly in terms of data-driven lead generation. * Investing in Product Innovation to maintain its competitive edge, particularly in the areas of customer segmentation, cross-channel marketing, and analytics. # Valuation & Investment Considerations As of January 2025, Zeta's market capitalization is approximately $3.5 billion with a P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio of around 3.2x, which is reasonable for a growing SaaS company. However, it is important to note that the company is still in the early stages of profitability, and its valuation might be somewhat speculative, with future success hinging on scaling its product offerings and achieving sustained profitability. Potential Catalysts: * Strong quarterly earnings reports, showing improved profitability and cash flow. * Successful integration of recent acquisitions, leading to increased revenue and margin expansion. * Expansion of international operations, particularly in high-growth markets. * Positive developments in AI and machine learning technology that further enhance the marketing platform's capabilities. # Conclusion Zeta Global represents a compelling opportunity in the martech and advertising technology space, especially for investors looking for exposure to AI-driven marketing and big data. The company's growth potential is significant, given its strong client base, advanced technology, and expanding product offerings. However, risks related to profitability, competition, and regulatory challenges should be closely monitored. Zeta is an interesting investment for those who are willing to take on the risks associated with its growth trajectory and the competitive digital marketing sector. Investors may want to keep a close eye on the company's path to profitability and how it navigates external challenges like data privacy regulations and market fluctuations.
$KULR is massively overvalued because of a deceitful CEO. The DD no one asked for.	What is KULR's core business model exactly? Providing battery thermal safety solutions, licensing fan AI software that helps suppress vibrations? Selling safe cases for batteries? Or maybe it's the recently announced BTC treasury? Wrong! None of the above. KULR's money making strategy... is to milk YOU! The unsuspecting, highly regarded "investor". And what makes me say that, you ask? Many hours of research spent on New Year that I will detail in this post (yes, I had nothing better to do). Let's begin by introducing Michael Mo, the CEO and founder of KULR. He did a [reddit AmA](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/o6iboh/i_am_michael_mo_ceo_of_kulr_technology_our/) right after KULR was listed on the NYSE in 2021, what a nice fellow. And right there marks the beginning of a deceitful strategy: Heavily embellish accomplishments, announce big name "partners" or "collaborators", whilst obfuscating what the relationship is really about, or what the accomplishment actually is. https://preview.redd.it/yxqbg56n8mae1.png?width=844&format=png&auto=webp&s=f906d5b6cb11703fc7db1d3ad99cef09516e738f Surely he has a lot to say and can explain their partnership with Andretti Autosports? Well, no not really: https://preview.redd.it/us679crs8mae1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=035443f54cac579a2cc6b0a70e1a15392b4d3e06 What an insightful answer by our CEO Michael Mo! According [to Andretti](https://andrettiglobal.com/news/2022/10/kulr-technology-group-returns-to-andretti-autosport-for-indianapolis-500-with-marco-andretti/), KULR was their primary sponsor for their INDYCAR program. Even after thorough research, nothing seems to indicate KULR was at any point developing or providing their technology to or in collaboration with Andretti. Surely Mr. Mo wouldn't lie about that, while KULR was actually just sponsoring Andretti in a marketing deal?? I quickly realized, as I deep dived on KULR's announced accomplishments, partnerships and collaborations, that my research painted a much different story every single time. https://preview.redd.it/e3wvlunw8mae1.png?width=694&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7f34ddbf4a7e8ed7239620962e9afd3cfb62b47 What an impressive list of big name "Customers" and "Partners" listed in the latest investor presentation! Makes you wonder how they only barely hit 10 Million annual revenue with so many "Key Clients". Of course, Mr. Mo never actually goes into detail about who the clients are and what is being sold to them. Fortunately, I have a lot of time on my hands so let's go into some of those supposed customers and partners. For many of these companies, I could not find a SINGLE source of information linking them to KULR in any way. NASA KULR sure do like to mention NASA a lot when talking about their biggest accomplishments. Let's dive into those. https://preview.redd.it/ip5ioic49mae1.png?width=731&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3d6e5c24aff8ad1d17521f22ca3b4dd967b7b68 In 2019, Leidos was awarded a contract by NASA to help bring supplies to the ISS. Leidos decided to use KULR's technology to... \drumrolls\ safely store laptop batteries next to each other. KULR storage bags that ensure one of them overheating doesn't overheat the ones next to it. What else? In 2020, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, funded by NASA, was in charge of SHERLOC, an analysis instrument, for the upcoming Mars rover mission. The laboratory chose KULR's heatsinks to ensure the lasers and sensors wouldn't overheat. Unfortunately, the SHERLOC instrument ran into technical issues when the rover was deployed on Mars. In July 2024, KULR landed a battery safety contract for $400k worth up to $2 Million with NASA, for automated battery cell testing. Not bad, but not very noteworthy either when you look at KULR's current $1 Billion market cap. SpaceX Name dropping SpaceX as a "partner" is a straight up lie. KULR will, for the first time ever, in 2026, have their battery in space on a nanosatellite. It will launch via a deal with "Exo-launch", on a SpaceX Rideshare mission (a low cost launching service that allows shared cost for multiple satellites/customers). KULR is a CUSTOMER of SpaceX. It seems Mr. Mo has a habit of confusing, "being a customer of", and "being partners with", a company. Am I a partner of Wendy's when I buy chicken tendies? no. Mr. Mo does it again with Molicel, which is also listed as a "customer or partner", when all they do is supply KULR with battery cells. So does KULR have any actual customers?? Well, yes. A few that are hard to identify. One of them is Viridi Parente. Viridi signed a multi-million, three year contract in 2021 with KULR for their battery thermal safety tech in the development of a stationary energy storage system. Even though KULR communicate a lot to their investors, it's unclear if this partnership with Viridi will be ongoing and grow in the future. Remember when I mentioned fan AI tech? KULR have been wanting in on the AI and NVIDIA hypetrain this year, so they've been developing an AI using NVIDIA's jetson, to help reduce fan vibrations, and capitalize on the growing amount of AI data centers that use fans. What does it have to do with battery thermal safety tech? Absolutely nothing, but it sure helps drive the stock price up, especially after announcing their sole licensing deal with a mysterious Japanese customer for $1 Million. Sure makes you wonder, if KULR had a patented top of the line space-ready battery safety technology that could be mass-produced, why would they dedicate resources to developing a completely different technology, when they have a grand total of 57 employees and 2 open positions. Then how does KULR make money and stay afloat? That's where Mr. Mo hopes you and I come in! Since KULR has never been profitable, and will remain that way for the foreseeable future as they are no where near any sort of mass commercialization for any product, KULR relies on ATM offerings to generate cash, diluting shareholders in the process. The higher the stock price, the more cash they can get from the offerings. Did I mention Mr. Mo suddenly had this great idea for KULR to become a BTC treasury? What an amazing excuse to dilute shareholders even more while the stock is massively overvalued, despite them not needing any more cash! [KULR outstanding shares](https://preview.redd.it/gbg8hcq89mae1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=44d669ecd722e4c0850aa3dcf248e008b08b5834) Conclusion, TLDR: KULR is massively overvalued, whilst having no plan or guidance for any sort of significant revenue increase that would justify a $1 Billion valuation. Instead of focusing on one product/technology, KULR diversifies itself to try and grab as much market attention to drive its stock price up and dilute shareholders. KULR CEO makes up fake "partnerships" with big name companies, deceiving investors. I'm short $3000 since today at 3.67. Not financial advice. I will tattoo KULR on my forehead and post it here if my position isn't in the green by the end of the year. [My position](https://preview.redd.it/gvt5i9sc9mae1.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=54e0a6de9c424e24de4b4dfab68c1107515d1970)
SolarEdge DD - My bet on SEDG	Overview: SolarEdge is a photovoltaic (PV) inverter and solar energy company. The company has seen a meteoric rise and subsequent downfall within the past 5 years. https://preview.redd.it/0gnxj53xakae1.png?width=682&format=png&auto=webp&s=42ce8c04973f28b7cce3b38430cc903a75ef5e7e To summarize the events leading up to this: A growing market demand for PV inverter systems, together with a growing market share of SEDG in that sector, led to consistently increased earnings over several years, from 300mil quarterly revenue in 2020 to 900mil quarterly revenue in 2023, which skyrocketed the stock price. Mismanagement of market conditions led to an equally devastating crash. Management was not able to foresee decline in sales and purchasing due to rising inflation and corona virus market recession. It aggressively expanded its factories, acquisitions, and employees, leading to a significant increase in company expenses. Meanwhile quarterly revenue dropped from 990m to 715m to 316m in the next 2 quarters. All solar energy companies were hit by a big decrease in revenue, and a stock pile of unsold products. This was especially painful for Solaredge which aggressively expanded, unable to see the forthcoming recession in solar market. https://preview.redd.it/aqseg3tkekae1.png?width=801&format=png&auto=webp&s=44429395651bbd5cd32353fd0409f41122fcb79c My Analysis: Risks: Solaredge $350m bond due end of 2025 Solardge negative income for the past 5 quarters. Trump policies may rollback subsidies and rules favor solar energy sector Stock is volatile and many gains are shorted lived. Combined with a negative outlook for stocks in January, will see a difficult time in stock price to go up. Pros: Solaredge revenue has been stable at around $260m for the past 3 quarters. The only thing required for the company to become profitable is to cut expenses. Over the past year, Solaredge has taken many cost-cutting measures, including headcount and facility reductions. My belief is that Solaredge will turn profitable in 2025q1 (february), or at the latest 2025q2. Share value will double in 2025, because the company trading much lower than it's fair market value, and many open hedge position. Positive indicators: 1. SolarEdge insider trading is up, and board members have been buying shares since November. Independent Chairman, Avery More, recently bought a whopping $1.1m worth of stock, at a price of $13.65. 2. Most recent target price set by Goldman Sachs, on Dec 20th, double upgraded SolarEdge (SEDG) to Buy from Sell with a $19 target price. (Todays SEDG price is $13.60) 3. SolarEdge has taken many cost reduction measures in the past year. 4. SolarEdge is currently hiring new employees in R&D departments. This is a strong indication the company feels financially secure about its future. 5. Solaredge is rumored to have another round of layoffs in non R&D departments - another indicator of increasing efficiency and reducing operating expenses. 6. Sale of §45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credits in consideration for approximately $40 million, will provide liquidity and strengthen solaredge cash position. 7. The company forecasts fourth-quarter 2024 revenues of $180 million to $200 million. Given the revenue of the past 4 quarters (260m on average), as seen in chart above, the company should be able to beat expectations on it's upcoming quarterly report. TLDR: Solaredge is traded at half it's fair market value. Solaredge has reduced expenses significantly, and is very likely to return to profitability in the next two quarters of 2025. Final notes: Assume everything I have said is inaccurate. Do the research for yourself. Don't take this as financial advice. The stock can go up today 10% and down 20% tomorrow. The company is still at a very volatile point, and waiting for a profitable quarter before investing is the safe thing to do. YOLO My entire portfolio into SEDG: [YOLO SEDG](https://preview.redd.it/kju112135lae1.png?width=1390&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a6610c60de576c50746d1fe853d7f20f55deb01)
Sable Offshore Corp upcoming catalyst and value play $SOC	There's a pretty good trade going on over at the value investing sub and would like to share another user's DD. It stems on Oil and Gas company re opening an existing site. this is a good one for a few reasons but go ahead and take a look below. I know this area where the Santa Ynez project is and am familiar with operation. trust me bro. my position is 150 shares at $23.84 . credit goes to BJJblue34 : "I've been working on this for a few days, and I wanted to share. Background: Santa Ynez Unit was an asset owned and operated by Exxon since the late 1960s, and was Exxon's most productive US asset producing between 10-20 million barrels of oil per year at a low cost of production of about $16 a barrel. Exxon was forced to shut down production since June 2015 due to a pipeline leak of 2,400 barrels of oil into the Pacific Ocean (Exxon Valdez was 10 million gallons for comparison). Exxon was unable to resume production due to California regulations. Basically, California was requiring Exxon not only to have its Santa Ynez Unit compliant with California law, but every asset worldwide complaint. This was a non-starter with Exxon which forced them to exit California operations much like other large-scale oil companies like Chevron, Phillips 66, and Occidental Petroleum. This is where Sable comes in. Sable purchased ExxonMobil’s Santa Ynez Unit assets for $883 million for pennies on the dollar, with a net asset value of $10B. Sable has since made considerable regulatory progress and is expected to begin hydrotesting the Pipeline in January 2025 in advance of a potential restart of production in q1 2025. Sable must pass a Federal court ordered consent decree which which includes granting of waivers by the Office of the State Fire Marshal (OSFM) which has outlined 6 steps for Sable to complete before being able to start operations. Per OSFM, Sable is now on steps 5 and 6 which are deferred maintenance and a startup plan which OSFM has provided a detailed outline for anyone interested. Sable initially met obstacles from Santa Barbara County but settled with Sable to avoid a lawsuit due to loss of income which could bankrupt the county. California State Fire Marshal Daniel Berlant approved a key pipeline-corrosion-control plan submitted by the Sable Offshore oil company on December 17. The approval by the fire marshal starts begins a 60-day review by a federal hazardous materials agency. If the agency has no objections, the waiver will take effect in mid-February. Further, the California State Lands Commission is currently processing applications to reassign four leases in state waters from ExxonMobil, the previous owner of the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), to Sable. State Lands has no timeline in mind for this decision, said Sheri Pemberton, their spokesperson; however, the SYU may restart without these lease assignments. Asset: Santa Ynez Unit is three offshore platforms located in Federal waters north of Santa Barbara, California with 112 wells (90 producers, 12 injectors, 10 idle); in shallow water of 900-1200ft. Sable has a substantial resource base with 646 million barrels equivalent of oil and a net asset value of $10B. Thesis: Ownership thinks it can bring production up to at least 10 million barrels in 2025 (28,000 barrels a day), and production up to 20 million barrels a year by 2028 while having minimal long term capital expenditures of about $150M per year. With improvements in drilling technology over the past decade production could possibly be up to 30 million barrels a year. With oil priced at $70/b, 10 million barrels of oil would imply annual free cash flow of $400 million and potentially up to $1.2B of cash flow based on increased production capacity on $70/b oil. This is a cash flow yield ranging between 20-63% given the current market cap is $2.0B and an enterprise value of $2.5B. California oil production currently stands at 283,000 barrels per day, so Sable would be a moderate boost to California supply which currently still gets most of its oil from Middle East suppliers along with Canada and Alaska due to consumption of >4 million barrels per day. Given California's increasing reliance on foreign oil (will also lose a lot from Alaska in the next couple years) a supplier in state is becoming increasingly necessary. Furthermore, Sable is operating under 16 federal offshore leases. California has limited jurisdiction. With a pro-oil production administration coming into office, this should provide further assistance toward operational success. Management plans to institute aggressive shareholder return program: ‒ Target fixed quarterly dividend of $1/share with a $2.50/share upside ‒ Opportunistically repurchase shares with excess cash ‒ Maintain conservative leverage profile by aggressively paying down debt Buffett and Munger's thesis on Occidental Petroleum is investing in a business with known large oil reserves (in the case of Occidental their reserves in Permain Basin), having minimal capex, and returning maximum cash flows to shareholders. Most oil companies don't operate this way historically. However, Occidental and now Sable are focused on limiting capex and returning maximum value to shareholders. Chairman/CEO: James C. Flores is the CEO and Chairman of Sable Offshore: -Leading Flores & Rucks, Inc. in 1994 -Chairman and CEO of Plains Resources Inc. in 2001 -Chairman, CEO, and President of PXP, which was acquired by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. in 2013 -Vice Chairman of FCX and Chairman and CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas LLC until April 2016 Flores has extensive experience in the industry and his family spent their own money to own approximately 20% of the company, so they have a huge incentive for the success of this business. Current balance sheet: 288M cash 344M in current assets 259M in warrant liabilities 814M Senior Secured Term Loan 1.3B in total liabilities Valuation: Bear case: If production is not resumed by January 1, 2026, the terms of the asset acquisition with ExxonMobil Corporation would potentially result in the assets being reverted to ExxonMobil Corporation without any compensation to Sable which would be a large loss of capital. Base case: $400M in annual free cash flow ($70/b oil on a conservative 10 billion barrels annually and $15/b costs) for a $4 billion valuation, a doubling of current valuation. Bull case $1.65 billion in annual free cash flow ($100/b oil on 30m barrels annually with 10/b costs) x 14PE for a $37.5B valuation, possible a nearly 20x if everything goes right. Risks: 1. Regulatory hurdles. While significant progress has been made, Sable has still not officially cleared regulatory hurdles required to begin operation. 2. California political environment. There is a reason oil companies abandoned California. There is a known hostility toward the fossil fuel industry. 3. Sable is leveraged to the price of oil. A global drop in oil prices could severely hurt cash flows. 4. Ownership execution. While management is experienced in the G&E sector, they still have no track record with Santa Ynez. Catalyst: 1. Clearing regulation is the single biggest hurdles. If Sable can begin operations, this company probably goes up >50% to >$30/share. 2. Proving operations. If management can deliver on their expectations of $1/quarter dividend then the stock should be >$40/share which is almost a double."
MVST is heavily undervalued based on DCF analysis.	Microvast Holdings $MVST 🚀 Following the last earnings call, Microvast Holdings ($MVST) has not just held steady but has shown signs of robust momentum, indicating a compelling narrative for future growth and market dominance. Here are the facts that underlying my conviction: 1. Record Revenue and Profitability: - The company reported a record quarterly revenue, showcasing a significant year-over-year increase. This financial performance marks a pivotal moment, as it's the first time $MVST has entered profitability, demonstrating not only growth but also operational efficiency. > $101.4 million of revenue were reported in Q3, a 26.6% YoY increase, net income stood at $13.2 million. 2. Gross Margin Improvement: - There was a notable improvement in gross margins, which is a clear indicator of Microvast's ability to scale its operations while controlling costs. This margin expansion is expected to continue as the company leverages its growing market presence. > Their gross margin increased to 33.2% in Q324. 3. Strong Cash Position: - With substantial cash reserves, Microvast is in a solid position to fund further growth initiatives, including R&D, expansion of production capabilities, and strategic acquisitions that could widen its market reach. As of Q324 cash and short term investments stood at $104mn. 4. Expansion and New Ventures: - The company has plans for enhancing its production capacity, particularly at its Huzhou facility, and is actively expanding in the U.S. commercial vehicle segment. The anticipated financing for the Clarksville facility could further amplify its production scale, leading to increased market share. 5. Guidance for Future Revenue: - Microvast has provided optimistic guidance for the next quarter and the year, projecting significant revenue growth. This confidence in future earnings is backed by current contracts and a growing order book, suggesting a strong demand trajectory. Revenue guidance for Q4 > $90-$95 million. If profitability continues, expect a significant re-rating of the stock. 6. Analyst Optimism: - Post-earnings, analysts have been adjusting their price targets upward, reflecting optimism about Microvast's growth potential. The stock's valuation, when compared to peers or based on future revenue projections, suggests there’s room for further appreciation. 8. Investor Sentiment: - The market's response post-earnings, with the stock touching a 52-week high, reflects strong investor confidence. The stock's performance, combined with low short interest and a significant volume increase, shows that both retail and institutional investors are betting on its upward trajectory. 9. Valuation: Based on Q3 2024 financial results, annualised, this provides a revenue value of 355m and based on industry context for valuing companies, it is to be between 5-10x . Therefore, 5 x 335m is 1.775 billion USD 300m shares o/s gives a share value of 5.92 When looking at PE, with a PE ratio of 25x, this comes to 1.325 billion USD, giving a share value of 4.42 Estimated discounted cash flow value (DCF) is ranging between 5-6.50 per share Therefore, just purely based on the current financials, the stock is heavily undervalued. I am heavily invested in MVST and you should too as this gem is undervalued as hell. Easy 10x from current price. Position: 21461 shares as proved in above screenshot
$GSAT: The Overlooked Satellite Company With Extraterrestrial Potential	TLDR: Globalstar’s outsized role in Low-Earth Orbit communications and recent equity partnership with Apple will provide substantial future cash flows and support rapid growth. Price target is $5, but will very likely extend far above this valuation. Globalstar ($GSAT) provides Mobile Satellite Services through its satellite constellations worldwide. More specifically, they provide cellular data and enable cellular communication, satellite monitoring of ground assets by governments, emergency service to remote areas, and utilization of their frequency spectrums authorized by the FCC and ITU (most importantly). [Globalstar recognizes revenue from its Spectrums under the “Wholesale capacity services” segment, and its respective 51% and 31% increases for the 3\/9 month periods ending in 2024 compared to 2023 illustrates its importance as a driver of operating profits.](https://preview.redd.it/7aitpeu2ug9e1.png?width=1099&format=png&auto=webp&s=79a85edf5fb76472b8c076573edd6d8861479b5c) [Revenue has been steadily increasing, even through rocky macroeconomics](https://preview.redd.it/o1b7g5ecug9e1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=be6fa6c5d32200883db22aff0379bde53bbb2e96) Authorizations for ownership of terrestrial spectrums are often lengthy endeavors and require a demonstration of competence by any company seeking them. The fact that Globalstar has secured L-band and S-band spectrum authorizations gives it a massive competitive advantage and access to a wider variety of international populations and markets than competitors. In addition to this competitive advantage, Apple recently initiated a 20% stake in the company and provided them with $1.1 billion in funding (paid in quarterly installments) to pay down debts and for use of their services. This 20% equity stake emphasizes that Apple views Globalstar as a company with significant growth potential rather than a simple operating partner. And it’s not just Apple buying in either… https://preview.redd.it/k0m4nv9mug9e1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ad21bd9dc33f91d8cf73c39078fa1488521138c Institutional ownership of Globalstar is up across the board, with names like JPMorgan and Fidelity rebalancing their investments and taking stakes outright. I believe that Globalstar’s current undervaluation is due to its historic balance sheet weakness and continued share dilution. However, the $1.1B in funding from Apple provides it with a solid runway and cushion from debt. More recently, they filed to effect a reverse stock split. This split would address their ongoing share dilution issues, provide additional liquidity for lot trading (blocks of 100 shares that benefit from lower commissions and fees), and a path to NASDAQ listing. https://preview.redd.it/hoitjsrrug9e1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=23efe4b77ce65b23157ee66bea04ab4a273b129c I believe that this company’s valuation currently reflects outdated historic data, and is not priced appropriately given these most recent developments. The consensus price target is currently set at $5, but having been beaten down for nearly 2 decades, I would expect any spark to ignite a rally that extends far above this target.
🚨Bag-holder DD alert: QuantumScape ALL IN 🚨	How are YOU going to generate your after holiday blues? Assuming you are a well balanced individual... Well I am going to do it by losing my coat in QuantumScape. The ticker might be banned even though market cap is 3b+? Anyway... I am not all in on QuantumScape because they have the special "Q" word in the name, although that is part of it... They don't do anything in quantum, but they have made a quantum leap in battery technology that could revolutionize the Electric vehicle industry. Electric vehicles are the darling of the market, and they will remain so with Mango man in office. Flying cars are now taking to the stage. They all need this better battery solution that QuantumScape offers. QuantumScape's projected revenue is expected to absolutely skyrocket in the next couple of years. It is undervalued for a revolutionary technology that will earn major revenue within a 5 year horizon. I am not going to bore you with fake financials from a pre-revenue company - although they are pretty well capitalized. This play is purely on technology and hype. QuantumScape, with their leap in technology, can generate the hype it once did in 2021. In 2025, it is much closer to producing it's technology at scale for Electric vehicle partners around the world. The market will remember soon. I always hear people ask "how did you know to buy this" and "how did you catch this before it ran?" It's all about timing and being present on the internet, with a dash of the right kind of regarded. Energy is next. You can see all of the battery names running up in the last month. Their market caps are still low, and they will go much higher. My main problem is that I don't know where QuantumScape stops🚀. * Volkswagen Partnership: QuantumScape has entered into an agreement with Volkswagen's battery unit, PowerCo, to mass-produce solid-state batteries. This deal grants PowerCo a license to produce up to 40 giga watt hours annually using QuantumScape’s technology, enough to power around one million vehicles. * Technological Milestones: The company has initiated the production of its B-sample cells, a new generation of solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, which could revolutionize the market with higher energy density and faster charging times. * Solid-State Battery Market Growth: The global market for solid-state batteries is expected to experience significant growth, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles and advancements in battery technology. * Competitive Edge: QuantumScape's proprietary technology positions it favorably against competitors, potentially capturing a substantial market share as the industry evolves. Kept this short because Mods keep deleting my posts and gatekeeping the play... jus trus🦍. I posted my positions. Not sure when I’ll sell… But again, I will most definitely be the catalyst for the next leg up. He sold? https://preview.redd.it/vqgy9lohrf9e1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a735fc82d2bb9e9294a520ec97f0ebd16ee3fdd6 https://preview.redd.it/824tb5djrf9e1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=244a1549ebec8421252a8022f38c4964d4f3882e https://preview.redd.it/bshrtjekrf9e1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=db4b2a3cd7035fb04effcca278409f3e9d6556de
Why $BROS shouldn't come before hoes - A Bear Case DD.	Listen up regards, ive been going to $BROS since 2017 back when they only had 1 branch in a small college town in Colorado and seen them expand across the entire state over a few years. Yes i know “the lines are always long” yeah “they’re competing with starbucks “ yap yap yeah they got the lisa su of coffee in christine barone as the new CEO but shut it and hear me out. I'm gonna tell you why this company is gonna fk up your grandma's inheritance way quicker than you can count to Gee Em EE (yes im throwing shade at our beloved regards at super stonk). If you genuinely bought that stock that shall not be named, you should actually buy BROS since you've likely been donating to the market for years anyway Less Blondes, More “WTF is that thing that took my order?” When I first started going to Dutch Bros, every morning was basically a softcore caffeine porno. 10/10 baristas smiling at you, making your day less miserable before you go back to being a wage cuck at whatever bs remote job you do. Now I show up and I’m greeted by some purple haired thing named Skylar. The amount of rainbow employees i've been seeing at different locations has made me gag, If I genuinely wanted a questionable gender-fluid experience, I’d just invest in coins again. Now I just go to $SBUX to get served by underpaid but a cute WOMAN. idc what you say, you can’t put a P/E on “no boner, no brew.” Healthier Options = Brain Activity = Lost Sales look, I go to Dutch Bros because I want 500 grams of sugar in a single gulp. I’m not here to think about the caloric content of my caramel macchi-whatever-the-fuck. Studies (these are harvard studies if you cucks wanna try and question me) show that when you force customers to think, you lose money. Give me my diabetes-in-a-cup and let me die happy. Also who the fuck buys a protein coffee, get a grip . Competition is Thiccker than a Nikola motors truck Expansion is a bitch when you’re trying to out-coffee Starbucks, Dunkin’, and every bearded hipster in a food truck. You really think $BROS can find prime corners in big cities when SBUX has already claimed every intersection and half the alleyways? Good luck with that. They might as well set up shop in the middle of bumfuck iowa at least they’ll have a monopoly there. Real Estate: From Tiny Shacks to Big-Ass Buildings The beauty of Dutch Bros was their huts—little shacks that cost roughly the same as an average tiny 3d printed home. Now I’m seeing thicker stores with actual indoor/outdoor seating, meaning sky-high overhead. If you're regarded: More real estate = more capital expenses = less margin. you start letting customers inside, and guess what? They might linger, think about what they’re buying and worst of all might even realize they can just make their own coffee at home like a finance guru on youtube Expansion Costs & Financial Fuckery Yea yea $BROS wants to open 1,500 stores in the next decade. Each new location can cost up to \~$1M in capex (im sure ur all have finance degrees and know what this means). With an average check size that barely pays your rent (assuming you ever move out of your mom’s basement) or even covers a 3d printed house , that’s a metric shit-ton of $9 coffees just to break even.Meanwhile, $SBUX is sitting on every corner, flexing their global supply chain and brand recognition. And where are the profits?? Last quarter, $BROS had a net loss of around $16 million while “expanding.” Their operating margin makes my match rate on hinge look good. Their P/S ratio implies theyre the TSLA of coffee, but let’s face it they can only dream of . To add onto this their new CEO looks more bullish on $MCD than she is on $BROS, christin barron if you're reading this: sign up for equinox, get you some $PTON, and maybe ill buy some of your shares. The only bullish thing is that their CEO is a whale (and not the kind that buys shares) meaning she probably buys her own produce TL;DR: if you hate skinny women, love to lose money or both. buy $BROS My Position: 5 Puts, $25 Strike, jan 15 2027 ( I dont have a job rn i wouldve shorted 10600 shares ) Edit: typo https://preview.redd.it/f5ho9pw1089e1.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=caa8257ce5414f32384281982a5ea4fdcb544ec7 https://preview.redd.it/n3kcddi2089e1.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=b91ee8ec203907805c90caab8dda9f0c9a68a60f i also own 35 shares 10 in my roth and 24 in my main acc https://preview.redd.it/dpuf6pf3089e1.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c8b8a405e24048f402eb96b3dd5ded869efe4d4
Congrats to the new $1B space stock	Finally hit a Billy. Been waiting on this for years. $RDW is the Next Space Stock You Need to Watch – Bigger Than $ASTS or $RKLB? NOTE: tried originally posting this on 10/14, 11/04, and 11/30 and WSB told me I couldn’t because RDW was “under 500m market cap” which is wasn’t … now trading >$10 a share. I've been following $RDW (Redwire) for four years now, ever since it IPO’d via a SPAC. I originally owned the stock back at the IPO, sold it before it fully crashed down to $2, and repurchased 10,000 shares at ~$2.50. I’ve bought and sold on the way up and on dips, currently holding 4,500 shares with a cost basis of $3.83. I also hold two call contracts at a $4 strike price expiring in May 2025. I’m a long-term believer in $RDW and believe it has the potential to be one of the biggest winners in the space industry long term, with significant potential for short-term spikes. This post isn’t about denouncing other space stocks but more about why I believe $RDW can be the winner we all want and need. NOTE: before diving in, this was originally written on Oct 14, 2024. I’ve since updated this with current numbers as of Nov 30, 2024 My Portfolio in the Space Sector (Oct 14, 2024): To show you my broader conviction in space, here’s a quick rundown of my other holdings in the space sector: -$RKLB: 4,500 shares, 4 call contracts at $2.50 strike, and 2 at $5 strike, expiring in Jan 2026 -$ASTS: 1,000 shares, cost basis ~$12 (sold 2,000 shares at $35 on a pump) -$LUNR: Sold 5,000 shares and 10 call contracts at $5 on a recent contract pump, sold another 5,000 shares @14.7. PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS UPDATE AS OF NOV 30: -$RDW: 4.500 shares, 2 call contracts at $4 strike expiring May 2025 -$RKLB: 3,100 shares, 2 call contracts at $2.5 strike expiring Jan 2026, 2 call contracts at $7 strike expiring Jan 2027 (Sold 500 @ 15, 500 @ 20, 400 @ 23.5) Bought: -$ACHR: 1,000 shares @ $6.18 -$JOBY: 750 shares @ $7.21 -$KULR: 4,000 shares @ $0.55 $GSAT: 2,000 @ $1.89 Sold all of my: -$ASTS: 1,000 shares @ 30 -$LUNR: 5,000 shares @ 14.7 But my strongest conviction remains with $RDW and here’s why. $RDW Performance & Key Financials Redwire has shown strong revenue growth but it’s flying under the radar compared to almost every single one of its peers. Here’s a breakdown of recent financials: * 2023: * Revenue: $243.8 million (+51.9% YoY) * Net Loss: $(27.3) million * Adjusted EBITDA: $15.3 million * Q1 2024: * Revenue: $87.8 million (+52.4% YoY) * Net Loss: $(8.1) million * Adjusted EBITDA: $4.3 million * Q2 2024: * Revenue: $78.1 million (+30.0% YoY) * Net Loss: $(18.1) million * Adjusted EBITDA: $1.6 million * Full-Year 2024 Guidance: * Revenue: $310 million (+27% YoY) For comparison, here’s how other space stocks stack up: * $RKLB (Rocket Lab): * 2023 * Revenue: $244.6 million (+16% YoY) * Net loss: $(182.6) million * Q1 2024: * Revenue: $92.77 million * Q2 2024 * Revenue: $106.3 million (+71% YoY) * Net Loss: $(41.6) million in Q2 2024 * GAAP EPS of -$0.08 * $LUNR: * 2023 Revenue: $60.5 million * Q1 2024 Revenue: $73.07 million * Q2 2024 Revenue: $41 million * $ASTS * 2023 Revenue: $0 * Q1 2024 Revenue: $500 thousand * Q2 2024 Revenue: $900 thousand Valuation Insights: Why $RDW is Undervalued Now, let’s talk about valuation. When looking at revenue versus market cap, $RDW is trading at a much lower multiple than its peers, despite earning more and losing less than almost all of them. This presents a strong case for potential upside if the market starts to recognize its growth. * $RDW * Market Cap: $524.3M (as of Oct 14 at $7.88/share) * As of Nov 30, market cap is now $928.9m * Revenue multiple: Just 1.69x revenue * As of Nov 30, revenue multiple is 3x * For comparison: * $RKLB: ~10x revenue * As of Nov 30, 25x * $ASTS: 100x revenue * $LUNR: ~2-2.5x revenue * As of Nov 30, 4.5x * Why This Matters * A lower revenue multiple suggests that $RDW is currently undervalued relative to its peers. It’s trading at just 1.69x revenue, compared to $RKLB’s 10x or $SPCE’s 15x, despite immense market traction and success. If Redwire continues on its growth trajectory, this gap in valuation could close quickly, creating a significant upside opportunity. Proven Track Record $RDW has been involved in space missions for more than 50 years, supporting missions to practically every planet in our solar system. * Sun: 3 missions * Mercury: 2 missions * Venus: 3 missions * Earth: 20 missions * ISS: 12 missions * Moon: 4 missions * Mars: 7 missions * Asteroids: 3 * Jupiter: 2 * Saturn: 1 * Pluto: 1 They’re also heavily involved with some of the biggest names in space: * $RKLB (Rocket Lab): Providing antennas for Space Development Agency’s Tranche 2 Satellite Constellation: https://stocks.apple.com/ABnxJzW1SSDaqMLt3FAxyTQ * Solar arrays for Thales Alenia Space: https://stocks.apple.com/AvnT3Yr2iRnSZBG3l5E8RMg * Supporting DoD satellite supply chain: https://stocks.apple.com/AxiA6lbisSOynTi9S44S6sw * DARPA SabreSat Very Low Orbit Demonstration: https://stocks.apple.com/ADGjV_tX9QFui8Tu0YKtVPQ * NASA Mars Surface-Imaging Study: https://stocks.apple.com/AScT7L7bVTAiuQTcpBuz8BQ * European Space Agency (ESA) Robotic Arm Prototype for Lunar Lander: https://stocks.apple.com/AlMFTeZLXScOImg95sCojeQ Capabilities & Future Potential Redwire is also positioned to be a leader in several emerging space technologies, including multiple areas I’ve seen highlighted for other companies in WSB over the years. Their capabilities include: * Microgravity payload development and operations: https://stocks.apple.com/A0yZ91oA9SHucXaTUWqzhbg * Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) platforms: https://redwirespace.com/capabilities/vleo/ * European-Built Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) Spacecraft Platform called Phantom: https://stocks.apple.com/AzeQKpFquSXGCLbc5roDKzw * Manufacturing and Pharma: https://redwirespace.com/capabilities/research-and-manufacturing/#pharma * Bioprinting in space: https://redwirespace.com/capabilities/research-and-manufacturing/#bioprinting * 3D bio printed Liver: https://stocks.apple.com/AcY51FcmjSPu3duv8EhGIXg * Live human heart tissue: https://stocks.apple.com/Aas7qd6U9SXaZfQabte-IKg * Bristol Myers Squibb Space Study on small molecule drug compounds: https://stocks.apple.com/A4cOGxAxlRRiKeJmXmjPNvA * Farming in space: https://redwirespace.com/capabilities/research-and-manufacturing/#cropproduction * Outfitting commercial space stations: https://redwirespace.com/capabilities/research-and-manufacturing/#spacestations * One of the two founding corporate sponsors of The Center for AEroSpace Autonomy Research at Stanford University: https://caesar.stanford.edu * Recently acquired Hera Systems, a spacecraft developer: https://ir.redwirespace.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/136/redwire-to-acquire-spacecraft-developer-hera-systems?t&utm * Other: * Advanced RF Payloads to a Leading European Defense Contractor: https://stocks.apple.com/AXcwwDgPGSVybCuhCo6dbcw * European satellite delivery: https://stocks.apple.com/ABhL72lIWS6-Uo6VBc1Zesw * Planetary defense: https://stocks.apple.com/AltcYeDsOSFimOPlefC85bw Redwire is positioned as a leader in several emerging space technologies that could be game-changers in the next decade. The possibilities here are immense—especially with space-based manufacturing, pharma, and autonomous operations becoming key areas of growth in the sector. The Opportunity: Why Now is the Time With everything mentioned above, $RDW presents a major opportunity, but here’s why now could be the time to get in: * Outstanding shares: 66.54M * Float: 24.26M (very small compared to peers): * $RKLB: 340M * $ASTS: 122M * $LUNR: 57M * Short interest: 2.58M shares (10.62% of float) * As of Nov 30, short interest is 3M (12% of float) * Average daily volume: 340k (very low compared to peers): * $LUNR: 14.2M * $RKLB: 13.1M * $ASTS: 16.9M * Average Daily Volume as of Nov 30: 481k * $LUNR: 19.18m * $RKLB: 18.52m * $ASTS: 12.83m Low float and low trading volume make $RDW more prone to sharp price movements, especially if the market starts to recognize the value that’s been overlooked. Add to that the upcoming earnings reports and potential contracts in the pipeline, and you have a recipe for significant price action. Conclusion: Given $RDW’s impressive revenue growth, proven track record, undervaluation compared to peers, and potential for short-term spikes due to low float and trading volume, this is a stock to keep an eye on. While I hold positions in other space stocks, my conviction in $RDW remains the strongest for long-term growth. * Past * Jan 1, 2024: $2.96 ($196.9m market cap - lower than the 2023 revenue) * Oct 14: $7.88 (524.3m market cap) * Today: * Nov 30: $13.96 (928.9m market cap) * Future Potential?: * $20 ($1.33b market cap // 4x 2024 rev) * $50 ($3.32b market cap // 10x 2024 rev) * $100 ($6.65b market cap // 20x 2024 rev) * …you can do the math from here
$5k Hail Mary on $WBD	I think $WBD is criminally undervalued and has been beaten to a pulp. With the new administration which is friendlier to merger and acquisitions, I think $WBD might fly. They are already planning to split their production/streaming services with the rest of the company. This is a small bet but I think it might pay off. They have some fantastic IPs ### Major Film Franchises: 1. Harry Potter and Wizarding World 2. DC Extended Universe (DCEU) 3. The Matrix 4. The Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit 5. The Conjuring Universe 6. Godzilla and MonsterVerse 7. LEGO Movie Franchise ### Television Properties: 1. Friends 2. The Big Bang Theory 3. Game of Thrones (through HBO) 4. The Sopranos (through HBO) 5. Looney Tunes and Merrie Melodies 6. Rick and Morty (through Adult Swim) 7. The Flintstones and The Jetsons
SPY should rally 10 points or so over the next three days	I was told I was in the wrong thread when I posted this. So here is a stand alone post. I think I am going to wait for market open with an upward bias. If SPY breaks the top of the opening 5 minute candle, then retests that level, I am going to get in. Pretty much all the historical charts show that when the debt ceiling gets raised and a shut down is averted, the market reacts in an upward motion to the tune of 10 points or so over the next next week. Plus, that selloff that just happened, maps to the 8-5 sell off and the recovery of it so far. So that is even more upward pressure. I went though all the charts from the all the Government Shutdown Mexican Standoffs we have had since 2018. Holy christ, I am not going to get into politics, but it happens like clockwork every year, shutdown threats start in June, brinksmanship happens, then they pass a last minute bill to stop gap the funding. The market rises after a deal is announced, Senate passes the bill, or President signs it. Not so much on the latter, but it did happen enough. The real juice is in the announcement. Here is the charts with a brief about each one: Here we have January of 2018. This was a budget deal that was signed after the government shutdown briefly. Trump signed the bill 2/9/18. You can see the market tore back up by 10 points the next two days. https://imgur.com/3DoeznQ This next one see was the border wall funding fight. The budget passed with out the border funding, so Trump shut down the government. He ultimately signed the bill on 1/25 he announce his support for a 3 week extension. https://imgur.com/xcUakUU Here is the end of 2019, where yet again, another Mexican stand off. Congress announced a deal on 11/20/19 and signed into law on 11/21/19. https://imgur.com/3s76uY2 Here is September of 2020, and yet another stupid fight over paying our bills. This time a deal was announced on 9/22/2020, and signed into law on 9/30/2020. https://imgur.com/PUOg8Go Here is the end of 2020, where we saw yet another stand off, and they announce a deal on 12/20/2020, and signed in on 12/23/2020. https://imgur.com/fR08lqM Here we have September of 2021. A deal was reached on 9/29/2021, and signed into law on 9/30. https://imgur.com/CnKsoRS September of 2022. A deal was reached on 9/27/2022, and signed into law on 9/28. https://imgur.com/c0Kwm3S December of 2022. A deal was reached on 12/22/2022, and signed into law on 12/23. https://imgur.com/5MNUKJh June of 2023, deal was reached 6/1/2023 and signed into law on 6/2/23 https://imgur.com/GsWbWns September of 2023, deal was reached on 9/30/23 and signed into law on 10/01 https://imgur.com/mjkrLdE November of 2023, there was a deal announced 11/15/2023 and signed into law on 11/16/23. https://imgur.com/j3Fn85w Here is the finished budget from 2023 being passed in 2024. Deal was reached on 1/7/2024, and signed into law on 1/8/24 https://imgur.com/mShp1di Here is another showdown to avoid a partial government shutdown threat is averted. Deal was reached on 3/19/24 and signed into law on 3/20/2024 https://imgur.com/NUYWRZP The most recent, September of 2024. Here a deal was announced on 9/20/24, and signed into law on 9/23/24 https://imgur.com/bQKcqDh I sat this for the simple fact that almost without fail, when the Government avoids a shutdown on the brink of, the stock market rallies about 10 points the following 3 days. tl;dr: Stonks only go up. I am buying calls at open on Monday, and happy that I currently have a 605c in the chamber.
TARIFF STOCKPILE CHAOS	TL;DR: Trump tariffs = stockpiling = warehouse profits = tendies. So Trump’s tariffs are set to drop on January 20, 2025, and companies are scrambling to stockpile to avoid the import tax. They’re hoarding inventory to avoid paying the extra costs, and the ones quietly cashing in are the warehouse landlords. This isn’t a moonshot or some convoluted 4D chess move. It’s as simple as this: Companies are stockpiling. Warehouses are filling up. Warehouse landlords are raking it in. Players who are printing tendies while the rest of us panic-buy toilet paper: 1. Prologis (PLD): The undisputed king of logistics real estate. They rent warehouses to Amazon, Walmart, and everyone else who sells you stuff you don’t need. If you want a “safe” pick, this is it. 2. STAG Industrial (STAG): These guys are all about single-tenant industrial properties. Perfect for the smaller companies trying to stockpile without getting crushed by the big boys. Higher risk, higher upside. 3. Rexford Industrial (REXR): Think of these guys as the landlords of Southern California. It’s one of the busiest logistics markets in the world, and Rexford owns a big piece of it. 4. Americold Realty Trust (COLD): Niche pick, but they’re the leaders in temperature-controlled warehouses. All your frozen burritos and vaccines live here. If you’re feeling fancy, this one’s for you. --- My Play This is what I’m looking at: PLD Calls: Expiring January 19, 2025, $135 strike. The steady, “boring” pick. STAG Calls: Expiring January 19, 2025, $40 strike. Riskier, but the upside is tasty. REXR Calls: Expiring January 19, 2025, $70 strike. Pure regional gold. This isn’t a long-term hold. The goal is to ride the stockpiling wave, cash out before January 20, and avoid getting caught in the tariff aftermath. What Could Go Wrong 1. Trump delays or cancels the tariffs. Classic move. 2. Companies already maxed out on stockpiling, and demand fizzles. 3. The market tanks, and we all cry together. But honestly, the catalyst is clear, the players are obvious, and the timeline is set. If this doesn’t work, it’s not because the play was dumb—it’s because I am. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Don't do what i do. I am highly regarded.
🦍 OSHKOSH ($OSK) — The No-Resistance Setup 🦍	Current Price: $94.98 Analyst Target: $122.86 (+24% Upside) 🚨 Summary TL;DR 🚨 Oshkosh ($OSK) is quietly lining up for a no-resistance breakout. Between AI-driven battery tech, a $2.98B USPS contract, and an upcoming showcase at CES 2025, the path forward is looking clearer than ever. While there was initial fear that the USPS contract might be scrapped, the Postmaster General has made it clear — the plan is moving forward. With CES set to drop potential headlines, the convergence of bullish catalysts could send this thing higher with no clear points of resistance. If the price dips closer to $90, it could mark a pivotal moment for those tracking this play. --- ## The Bull Thesis (Why $OSK Has Big Potential) 🐂 --- ### AI-Powered Battery Tech Oshkosh isn’t just rolling out standard EVs. They’ve partnered with Eatron Technologies, a developer of AI-driven Battery Management Software (BMS). This system makes EV batteries smarter, more efficient, and longer-lasting. Companies like USPS and other fleet operators love this kind of edge because it means lower maintenance, fewer replacements, and higher uptime. Why it matters: - AI-driven battery optimization = higher fleet performance + lower operating costs. - This is a major selling point for securing more fleet contracts in the future. - Could be featured at CES 2025, drawing attention from investors, analysts, and potential customers. If this tech makes its way into Oshkosh's CES presentation, it has the potential to turn heads. And historically, companies that reveal fresh tech at CES see share price momentum. 📜 Source: Oshkosh Investor Relations --- ### The USPS Contract 💰 Here’s where it gets good. Oshkosh secured a $2.98B contract to produce 50,000 next-gen delivery vehicles for USPS. While some news broke about potential attempts to "cancel" the deal, it’s now clear that USPS isn’t backing down. Key Details: - Congress allocated $3B to electrify the USPS fleet, and a portion of that was earmarked specifically for Oshkosh's vehicles. - Postmaster General Louis DeJoy publicly stated that the electrification plan is moving forward, and it would take an act of Congress to change it. - Oshkosh is already building these vehicles in South Carolina, and there's political pressure to maintain jobs in the region. This is the kind of steady revenue stream that gives Wall Street confidence. It’s also a reason why analysts have set a 12-month price target of $122.86. The takeaway? The USPS contract looks more secure than people originally thought. Key Insight: The market initially reacted to news that the deal could be scrapped, causing the stock to dip. But with the Postmaster General standing firm, the market’s "fear trade" might be over. If this becomes clear to Wall Street, expect the price to re-rate upward. 📜 Source: [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2024/12/11/us-postal-service-says-it-is-going-electric-despite-trump/) --- ### CES 2025 (The Breakout Catalyst) 🚀 If you’ve been in the game for a while, you know what CES can do to a stock. CES 2025 is one of the most anticipated tech showcases of the year, and Oshkosh is set to flex its AI-driven EV and battery tech on stage. Historically, CES headlines have been known to send certain stocks flying, especially if they announce something game-changing. Why it matters: - CES is where the big players drop headlines that make institutional investors take notice. - If Oshkosh reveals something fresh (like new EV capabilities, fleet partnerships, or advanced AI-battery innovations), expect headlines and volume spikes. - Companies that generate buzz at CES often see increased volume and bullish momentum for weeks after the event. This event alone could be a major volume driver. And since CES 2025 is perfectly timed to align with clarity on the USPS contract, the combination of these two catalysts could be electric (pun intended). 📜 Source: Yahoo Finance --- ### Analyst Price Target ($122.86) Wall Street analysts have set a 12-month price target of $122.86, which represents a 24% upside from the current price. That’s without factoring in potential CES announcements or a clean USPS contract path. If both of those elements come together, it wouldn’t be surprising to see analysts increase their targets. What this means: - Analyst targets are often set using a "base case" — in this case, it's the USPS contract. - CES 2025 announcements and battery tech innovations are not fully priced in. If this story unfolds as expected, analyst upgrades could act as a secondary catalyst, bringing fresh buying momentum into the stock. 📜 Source: MarketBeat --- ## The Bear Risks (Why It Might Not Work) 🐻 ### 🔴 Supply Chain Pressures Oshkosh needs chips, metals, and batteries to make their EVs. If there are bottlenecks in supply (like we’ve seen across the EV space), costs could rise, and production could slow. But since USPS's payments are structured as part of a long-term deal, some of these risks are hedged. --- ### 🔴 CES Flop Risk If Oshkosh doesn’t deliver anything fresh at CES, investors might "sell the news." But based on the AI-driven battery tech and USPS fleet advancements, it’s hard to see them walking on stage without something meaningful to share. --- ## The No-Resistance Setup (If Everything Clicks) 🚀 Here’s where it all comes together. The setup for no resistance is simple: Postmaster General stands firm — No need for Congress to change the USPS deal. CES 2025 reveals fresh tech — Headlines drop, volume spikes, fresh buyers enter. Wall Street realizes USPS drama was overblown — Price re-rates toward analyst targets. If these three elements all hit at once, it’s hard to see where resistance would kick in. Stocks usually hit resistance where traders start taking profits, but in this case, there's no clear incentive to sell if the path upward remains intact. --- ## The Sentiment Check 🗣️ Here’s the current market sentiment: - Bullish: The USPS contract looks more secure than ever, and CES 2025 could be a huge PR moment. - Bearish: Concerns around supply chain issues and CES execution still exist, but the clarity on the USPS contract has shifted sentiment toward bullish. --- ## Final Thoughts (The Confluence of Catalysts) 💭 Here’s the big picture: - The USPS contract is alive. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy made it clear that USPS is moving forward. The fear of the deal being "canceled" is overblown. - CES 2025 could be a headline-fueled breakout catalyst. If Oshkosh flexes its AI-driven battery tech or announces fresh fleet innovations, expect buying momentum. - AI-driven battery management gives Oshkosh a long-term competitive edge in future fleet contract bids. If the USPS contract stays locked in and CES headlines deliver, there’s no reason for sellers to step in. This is a confluence of catalysts — multiple bullish events colliding at the same time. When that happens, resistance doesn’t matter. If you’re still on the fence, ask yourself this: What happens if CES headlines hit and the USPS deal stays locked in? --- Sources: - [Oshkosh Investor Relations](https://www.investors.oshkoshcorp.com/news/oshkosh-corporation-invests-in-ai-powered-battery-management-software-company-eatron-technologies/2fd4cca5-28c3-4476-a700-160eece6ef18/) - [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2024/12/11/us-postal-service-says-it-is-going-electric-despite-trump/) - [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oshkosh-corporation-showcase-breakthrough-innovations-160100596.html) - [MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/OSK/forecast/)
Bears🐻, our time has come: The only data you need to be looking at	Sahm indicator: at 0.5 Yield curve: past inversion Fellow gaybears🐻, our time has come
Nvidia Will Be the next Intel, Why I'm bearish long term. TSMC is the true winner(assuming China doesn't invade)	Right now, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are all spending more than Nvidia on R&D and are developing their own AI chips. Tesla, and AMD are also developing AI chips. Right now, tech companies are only buying Nvidia's chips to get started and build market share, because they do not want to fall behind their competition. Using Nvidia's chips at current prices is not profitable, even successful AI companies such as OpenAI fail to achieve positive operating margins despite a highly popular product with paid features. Large tech companies are reluctantly buying Nvidia's hardware to avoid falling behind their competition in market share. But relying on Nvidia long term is never the intention, these companies need to be profitable eventually, Nvidia is just there to get them started. The thing is, Nvidia's 74.56% gross margin is a strength, but its also a vulnerability. It demonstrates that any AI company that can cut out Nvidia can significantly reduce their costs, and that's why everyone is building their own chips. They don't need to be faster than Nvidia to succeed, they just need to be fast enough to provide services at a lower cost, which is quite a low bar. Developing new products takes time, which is why Nvidia's windfall has lasted. But give it 1-3 more years and you'll start to see the impact on Nvidia's sales. With everyone rushing to develop their own chips, and all of them relying on TSMC, TSMC has the true windfall. They will certainly be able to hike their prices on wafers due to increased demand, which will hurt Nvidia's margins. Intel was once a dominant and unstoppable player in the semiconductor space, but then they got too comfortable and started spending their cash flow on dividends and stock buybacks instead of reinvesting in R&D. We see how that played out, with AMD catching up and stealing market share, and now Intel is struggling. No moat is impenetrable. Nvidia is following in Intel's footsteps with their $50 Billion stock buyback plan at 50x earnings. Despite facing competition from the largest tech companies with deep pockets, they are spending their record windfall just to buy back less than 2% of their shares outstanding. This will be their downfall. They are not hedging their reliance on TSMC by seeking to acquire or develop their own fab business, they are not increasing R&D sufficiently to stay ahead of their competition. This will be their downfall. In 5-10 years, Nvidia will almost certainly have thinner margins and less market share in the AI space as their customers develop their own in-house solutions. At best, Nvidia will be relied upon for niche applications where performance is essential.
$GSAT CEO shits on $ASTS - Sets bear case at $461M/Month/Revenue	Globalstar CEO Paul Jacobs has been spreading his message that there is no demand for the type of direct-to-device satellite broadband $ASTS offers. And he offers his bear case. In his CNBC interview on Friday, he cited Idirum and Qualcomm failures in the 90s as evidence that consumers won't pay for coverage away from cell towers - as if consumer expectations have not changed in the last 2 decades. Yesterday he [cites ](https://www.pcmag.com/news/globalstar-ceo-isnt-convinced-people-will-pay-for-cellular-starlink)a study by GSM Association, which suggests only 32% of mobile subscribers would use the service, and they'd only be willing to pay up to 5% more in extra costs. Quick math using the study he cited and data from Google gives us: 32% of 386M US subscribers currently paying an average $141/Month each = 123M people willing to pay $7.50 per month for satellite D2D. 50/50 revenue share with mobile operators leaves 123M x $3.75 = $461M/Month in revenue up for grabs. That's just the US. $461M/Month revenue opportunity is his BEAR CASE lol. Add in Canada, Europe, Africa, Japan, and the path to $1B/Month revenue for ASTS is easy to see. ASTS current Mktcap: 7B Prediction: Mktcap 150B by 2027 Positions: * 2,400 shares @ $25 * Jan 27 leaps at $25 and $45 [Positions](https://preview.redd.it/xo4rcdxc2n7e1.png?width=3024&format=png&auto=webp&s=553be88d815a172a741f89f545036eea08a60dff)
GOOG vs TSLA: Money Spinner vs Monkeys	Listen up, you smooth-brained, tendie-chasing, wife’s-boyfriend simping fucks. If you’re ignoring GOOG and still long TSLA, you deserve the ~~portfolio~~ big red dildo that you have.🚀 GOOG - like a wife on a Wednesday, she’s not going down. Alphabet isn’t just Google anymore—it’s the tech overlord running your life, your ads, and the YouTube rabbit holes you waste your life in. 1. While you drool over ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini is out here printing real money while your wife drives away with “Tim from finance”. 2. YouTube = Tendies from all ages: It’s monetizing both the Boomers and Gen Z eyeballs milking them for every cent. 3. Cloud Revenue 🚀 : Google Cloud is up 30% YoY. They’re catching up to AWS and Azure like a freight train and THERE IS NO SAFE WORD! 4. Weymo, Tokyo, up-go, y’know? 5. It’s Not Even Overpriced (Yet): PE ~26. If you’re still crying that “Big Tech is expensive,” literally just shut the fuck up. GOOG is a low-risk, high-reward tendie train for monkés who want to stop seeing ~~RED~~ their wife getting trained on the weekends. TSLA - The big-Brain Hedge You are still too Dumb to Consider Tesla is the most overvalued clown car on the market. It looks like shit, it’s priced like shit and the groupies make it sound like Musk just invented teleportation, cured baldness, and colonized Mars simultaneously. Spoiler Alert! >!He didn’t!<. 1. When the Market loses hype momentum, TSLA Gets Nuked ☠️ . Overvalued growth names like Tesla get slapped like a hookers cheeks behind Wendy’s, especially if JPow pulls the wrong face. 2. Buying OTM put spreads is a small cost to hedge your brainless GOOG upside. If TSLA drops 20%, you’re eating so many tendies you’ll need a stairmaster to get to bed. TLDR GOOG Calls Buy it, hold it, shut up. It’s free money. TSLA Put Spreads Buy a cheap put spread. If the market slips, TSLA dumps, and you get paid. If the market moons, GOOG wins. If the market dies, TSLA pays for your next YOLO. Either way, you’re not left high and dry like the rest of the regards here. Don’t fumble this you fucking idiot. “Not financial advice I am just a monké.” GOOG [Positions](https://imgur.com/a/DGufmC1): >!. $2.11 (+70%) 197.5 27DEC24 $1.35 (+25%) 200/207.5 27DEC24 $2.79 (+59.5%) 200 10JAN25 $2.40 (-21.2%) 210/240 10JAN25 $1.52 (+420%) 195/210 21FEB25 $9.45 (+210.5%) 175 17APR25 $1.80 (+375%). 210/235 20JUN25!< TSLA [Positions](https://imgur.com/a/AJL67B2): >! *$2.59 (-25%) 375/360 03JAN25 $0.46x2 (-70%) 340/335 10JAN25 $6.33 (-66%) 340/370 21Feb25!<
Allow me to explain why this UNH dip is the dumbest shit ever and calls is the way.	Position TLDR: Not Financial advice. Positions are 5/5 Vertical Jan 3 545/550 P (Currently ITM) and 10 calls Jan 17th 600/610 C (Yes, I'm revenge trading.) I also hold the underlying shares. Image provided, unlike the people on this Reddit, and to prove the trading is live. (Also took forever to get this post made auto mod/Reddit has really gotten harsh on what they allow) Real TLDR: UNH dropped to $480 due to CEO Brian Thompson's meme death. Fundamentals are solid, the dip is an overreaction, and $550+ is realistic. https://preview.redd.it/q513l7ag7h7e1.png?width=1313&format=png&auto=webp&s=85e572f517a931c603ef93c397e519f55817339b * Strong Financials: UNH has $25B in annual cash flow, enabling consistent reinvestment, share buybacks, and dividends. They have more capital than they know what to do with. * EPS Guidance: Earnings per share guidance remains solid. With an aging and increasingly unhealthy population, demand for healthcare will rise in the short, medium, and long term. Medicare Advantage reimbursement policies remain steady, and most political chatter on the topic lacks actionable impact. * Leadership Team: Andrew Hayek (CEO of OptumHealth) and Dirk McMahon (President of UNH) are seasoned industry leaders. They’ve streamlined processes to maximize profitability (not a moral statement, just a financial one). * Market Position: UNH remains the largest insurance provider in the U.S., with Optum leading in analytics and service. Their position is set to grow further with potential deregulation during the next political cycle. * Valuation: The current price-to-earnings ratio is 18x forward earnings, below the historical average of 22x. Institutional investors have held steady despite recent events, short interest is at its lowest since the “incident,” and dividends remain in safe territory. * Fair Market Value: Discounted cash flow models and reports show a fair market value of $715. Using a 22x forward EPS (historical average), $550 in the short term is reasonable, with $570+ achievable if EPS beats to $26 (earnings on 01/10/2025). Final TLDR: Stock is only down because some dumbass forgot to hire security and got blasted by some silver-spooned mafia-linked Italian that happens to be moderately attractive. Possible Risk: Trump actually fucks with the healthcare industry (Unlikely), Market eats shit in 2025 (Somewhat likely), UNH somehow managers to not hire a new CEO (Unlikely just move Andrew Hayek) Fact-check me, Roast me, call me names, say I'm coping, etc. I don't care. The stock is undervalued by 200-300$ and has no reason to be this low absolute value play and if I had more cash to burn i'd be buying UNH like white on rice..
The Big Short 2 - The Even Blacker Swan	This community was close to perfect back in its heyday. It was a den of degenerate high risk gamblers who adequately self-moderated their community with extreme toxicity. If someone asked an innocent question, responses of hope you lose everything, that you will fuck their wife, or they are going to be sucking dick behind Wendy's for three fiddy a pop should always be appropriate behavior here. Quite simply, If people cannot stomach this kind of toxicity, how would they be able to stomach the real world consequences of losing a couple million dollars in an hour, losing their house, or actually losing their spouse because of degenerate behavior. Being inclusive or nice to people in this community actually makes the world a shittier place as it normalizes extremely high risk behavior that should not be for everyone. I accordingly want to tell each of you to go fuck yourselves and I hope you can provide me with the level of toxicity that matches or exceeds this in return - I want your worst. I like Black Swan's and this post represents DD for such an investment. Ultimately I am posting this here because I really want someone to prove my investment thesis wrong - PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG. The math is so extremely simple that I am going to present my thesis mostly with meme's because I believe that the financial apocalypse should be something light hearted and filled with humor. This is DD accordingly is for the collapse of the global financial system and if I am correct that will make 2 for 2 on calling black swans on wsb (so much better then Burry who has predicted 450 of the last 2 crashes). Technically everything collapsed back in September 2019 and has been held together with tape and bits of string, but nobody really wants to identify the problem and I have no problem telling the truth so here we go. 1) Interest. The Federal Reserve pays currently pays banks an annual interest rate of 4.65% on Bank Reserves. https://preview.redd.it/6a48nsdepg7e1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=50e42cb98758b46e68c1b39b11320cb9fc468f45 [Interest on Bank Reserves: https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/IORB](https://preview.redd.it/wsmq0j0ypg7e1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=66c2f1ac84ec8f7f25e8ab92d87a301284fb1bf7) 2) Principal. Banks currently have $3,211,700,000,000 ($3.2 Trillion) in Bank Reserves help with the Federal Reserve. Bank Reserves only exists in such high amounts as a balancing entry for the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (QE) programs - when people joke about the Federal Reserve printing money they are referencing the process of creating Bank Reserves out of thin air. QE was used to support the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, COVID, or simply when wall street was lazy and didn't want to work (the "Taper Tantrum"); the Federal Reserve creates "Bank Reserves" to purchase "toxic assets" from Bank's to stimulate the economy. https://preview.redd.it/c1hxhdz6rg7e1.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=65cee78aaded5d909f15fc3d3591d17e9b04c7e4 [Quantitative Easing: https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/WALCL](https://preview.redd.it/01viumwopg7e1.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdf35960810ea91f39f2feae96ecf74a61420289) [Bank Reserves: https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/TOTRESNS](https://preview.redd.it/yqgwgi1rpg7e1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=de6214d912c3e0239d5fb225aede9f4dea62e329) 3) The Federal Reserve is currently paying $149 Billion in interest on Bank Reserves (Interest rate in item 1 multiplied by the total deposits in item 2). The Bank's dragged their feet and didn't absorb the toxic assets previously sold to the Federal Reserve back onto their balance sheets quick enough (these are truly garbage assets so why would you want to buy them back?). When a rate hiking cycle was required to combat inflationary pressures, Central Banks around the world labelled inflation as "transitory" as hiking rates illuminates the massive problem with QE if it wasn't unwound. It's a game of chicken right now, the Bank's are being rewarded by being paid interest on historical bailouts (they are keeping their mouths shut), the Central Banks (including the Fed) are insolvent and are hoping they can find a way out still (they are silent), and Governments are starting to collapse around the world. https://preview.redd.it/b8t984cipg7e1.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=62a957926f269e3d206cd1ce1ea5855547fd50cf 4) The financial system is being propped up with an hidden bailout. The Bank's don't have enough liquidity to pull the toxic assets back onto their balance sheets or to repay the interest that rightfully belongs to taxpayers. As the Bank's, Central Banks, and the Government's are all hiding this problem from the world, how can taxpayers support another bailout to an industry that refused to fix its own problems. As per FDIC cumulative Trailing-Twelve-Month Net Income for the 4,517 commercial banks and savings institutions is $236.9 Billion and the majority of these earnings are attributed to interest paid by the fed. This bailout (Fed Interest) isn't even fairly paid out (concentrated to the largest banks/prime brokerages) and we are about to enter a race to the bottom. "Are you there Jamie Dimon? It's Me, God" https://preview.redd.it/hzfx687jpg7e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e1e0496582dedbe5da814bd0629b22a51480d1f [Theft from Taxpayers. https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/RESPPLLOPNWW](https://preview.redd.it/17umpivjpg7e1.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=26e7a86f2faedccdd4d31973a337a6be7e5170c9)
Tesla Bull and Bear case: the great AI and liability gamble	Tesla stock has seen a meteoric rise recently, nearly doubling to $1.4T market cap in just three months. The catalyst is Trump’s victory and Elon Musk’s instrumental role in it. Investors expect Elon’s influence to relax regulations, clearing the way for a robotaxi rollout—a potential game-changer for the automotive industry and transportation infrastructure as a whole. Tesla is trading like an AI startup, and for good reason: its “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) system is at the heart of the valuation. But investors are making several assumptions that warrant a closer look. # The Bull Case: Tesla’s data volume Tesla has a massive data advantage. With over 4 million vehicles on the road, each equipped with a suite of cameras, Tesla’s fleet constantly collects real-world driving data. This data acts as a “shadow trainer” for its AI, gathering insights in every imaginable driving condition. Meanwhile, FSD subscribers are essentially paying to supervise the AI, providing Tesla with even more labeled data. Behind the scenes, Tesla employs an army of data labelers to prioritize edge cases—rare and tricky driving scenarios. Tesla combines supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning to continuously refine its AI. More importantly, Tesla’s massive data funnel gives it a clear edge in data volume, which usually means better machine learning.On top of this, Tesla’s vision-only approach—using cameras without lidar—makes its system cheaper and theoretically more scalable. The result? A system that could be deployed anywhere in the world, not just pre-mapped areas. # The Bear Case: Quantity vs. Quality More data is not always better, and it’s possible that Tesla might reach a plateau. Teslas are mostly driven in suburban and highway environments, where edge cases are relatively rare, while Waymo trains their AI in dense, chaotic urban areas. The result is a more diverse dataset that’s constantly evolving. Waymo is owned by Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and has been operating fully autonomous L4 robotaxis in large cities since 2018. It uses both cameras and lidar. Combining 2D and 3D data in this way is something Tesla initially set out, but failed, to do. Elon has said that the lidar data was hard to make sense of, since it often conflicted with the vision data. But Waymo has somehow managed to make it work. This means that its data is much richer in quality. The urban-focused fleet also encounters far more edge cases than Tesla’s suburban-heavy dataset, giving its AI a potentially richer training environment. The geofencing that Tesla bulls dismiss as a crutch is actually a strategic advantage for Waymo. By limiting its operations to pre-mapped areas, Waymo minimizes liability and achieves Level 4 autonomy with real-world deployments today. Tesla, by comparison, is still at Level 2, which means drivers must supervise and be ready to intervene. Moving from L2 to L4 isn’t just an incremental step—it’s an order-of-magnitude leap in complexity. Tesla bulls overlook the difference between urban vs. suburban environments. Waymo trains its AI in the most chaotic environments—places like San Francisco and New York City. Tesla’s FSD, by contrast, collects much of its data in relatively predictable suburban and highway conditions. Cities provide more edge cases, such as jaywalking pedestrians, aggressive lane merges, and unexpected construction detours. As the saying goes, “If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.” If Waymo’s AI can survive the chaos of Manhattan or downtown LA, it’s far more likely to handle less complex environments like suburbs or rural highways. In contrast, Tesla’s suburban data might create a “same-shit-different-day” scenario, where the AI becomes great at average cases but struggles with rare, high-stakes scenarios. # Regulatory relaxation is a double-edged sword If Musk succeeds in relaxing regulations, Tesla might clear the path for robotaxi deployment. In theory, this could limit Tesla’s liability, especially if passengers are required to sign release forms. However, accidents involving unsuspecting third parties (e.g., pedestrians) remain a significant risk. Under current frameworks, manufacturers are liable for autonomous vehicles, meaning Tesla could face infinite exposure, even for a small number of accidents. Even if Musk changes the regulatory framework, courts ultimately determine liability, and his involvement could be seen as a conflict of interest at best, complicity at worst. Tesla’s data suggests FSD already outperforms human drivers in safety metrics—which is very impressive. However, publishing accident rates also acknowledges that FSD causes accidents. They currently get away with it because, again, L2 puts the onus on the driver. But it's a different story if they deploy robotaxis as L3 or L4. In that case, any accident caused by FSD is the onus of Tesla, exposing them to unlimited liability. # The scalability myth Tesla bulls often criticize Waymo’s reliance on lidar as costly and unscalable, but this argument doesn’t hold weight for two reasons. First, lidar is becoming much cheaper, and with volume production, costs could approach Tesla’s camera-only system. Ironically, Elon’s first principles philosophy should be applied here: just because something was a certain way before doesn’t mean it has to be that way. Secondly, the market for taxis in general is urban. When was the last time you saw one in a random suburb or the countryside? Waymo only needs a few major cities to succeed, giving it a more focused path to profitability. # Tesla vs. Waymo is really Tesla vs. Google Waymo uses millions of AI-generated simulations to train its system. It’s AI teaching AI, similar to how AlphaGo and AlphaZero were trained. Tesla may also use simulations, but Waymo’s superior compute power (via Google’s custom TPUs) means it’s clearly dominant in this regard. Tesla bulls often cite Elon’s dismissal of lidar and geofencing as evidence of Tesla’s superior approach. But they overlook Google’s hegemony in AI. They were in the game before anyone. They delivered AlphaGo, AlphaFold, and many other paradigm-shifting, world-changing products, backed by custom hardware and massive compute resources. Tesla’s Dojo may be promising, but it’s still a newbie. # tl;dr Tesla’s $1.4T valuation rests on its perceived lead in autonomous driving, which is to say its lead in AI. If Tesla dominates AI, the stock might still be undervalued. But the data quantity vs. data quality, liability risks, and Waymo’s technical advantages suggest Tesla may be actually falling behind. In which case, it's vastly overvalued.
$AMD Bottoms Within the Next $10	Intro: Many of you are probably pretty tired of $AMD. The last 8 or so months of downtrend is pretty deterring, especially while $NVDA continues to tear upwards. You're also probably tired of seeing hopium posts in the midst of tons of bear posts. I think most agree that fundamentally $AMD is a great company that should not be negative YTD. For those of you that have been waiting a long time to see it catch a bid off of the AI hype and necessity for chips, I think the wait is coming to an end. It's easy to point at the institutions and hedge funds and blame them for nuking the price, but hopefully with this thesis I can show that $AMD structurally is ready to reverse. To the untrained eye, the chart displayed should be easy to read, you can see the similarities between the two corrections quite easily. If any of you see any holes in this thesis please let me know. "but institutional buying/selling, unusual options, market dominance," Yea IDGAF about all that, just let me know if there are holes in the technical analysis. If you don't want to read, I'll sum it up briefly: AMD will bottom at $114-$121, followed by an HTF extension to $330. Length of Corrections, Fibonacci Levels, Timing of Earnings & Structure: The first correction pictured lasted \~315 days, bottoming \~21 days from prior to earnings. The current correction is pacing to also finish within the golden pocket ($114-$122, where institutions have most interest in buying), matching the length of the previous correction and also \~21 days off of the next earnings. Earnings are marked in blue vertical lines on the chart. As you can see with our current correction, we are likely in the final wave of our ABCDE correction. There is a small chance we could skip the golden pocket and shoot for the 0.236 @ $96, but this is quite unlikely. The run up that followed the previous correction saw price top at $227, nearly touching our 1.618 extension at $232. If we see the same process unfold: A bounce and run up from the pocket, we could expect our 1.618 to be @ $333 per share, pictured in the top right. MACD & RSI: Once again, If you just study the structure of the MACD underneath the two corrections, it is easy to see how close they are in form. I'm not going to attempt to explain each cross and describe what I am seeing in words, the charts speak for themselves for MACD. RSI during the previous correction saw a low highlighted in green at the bottom at 32. The previous two run ups both peaked at 82, and I would like to think it is highly likely RSI will bottom at 32 again, currently sitting at 39. This one it is also easy to see the similarities in structure on the chart. MACD and RSI showing the same structure as the last correction before a 300% run with a bottom going into earnings is possibly the most bullish copy and paste set up I have seen in a long time. Conclusion: I don't wish to spread more lackluster hopium for this stock. I am trying to make the point that structurally, if it were to bottom and reverse, within the next month would be the most logical place for this to occur. Hopefully, those that have been burned holding this stock understand that it simply just needed time to cool off after that 300% run. Once markets find the price has been pushed low enough it should begin another, it's literally illustrated in the charts. I could be wrong. There could be more downside after the golden pocket, but this is a play I am willing to lose money on because it meets every checkmark presented from an analysis view. If it folds I cannot be upset because I stuck with the rules and didn't put money somewhere else that didn't look as structurally sound. https://preview.redd.it/4db1zbjif47e1.png?width=1986&format=png&auto=webp&s=57abbf74331f5857fb91e6ef0f268cb52a05eaaf https://preview.redd.it/tzt3rbjif47e1.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe50da34618b81e15498ceae774c499fa74c2e2e https://preview.redd.it/fhylvbjif47e1.png?width=1055&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bf3fc1515ce97ebea425272944f138afe998020
MongoDB $MDB - all in on a bargain	It’s been mentioned here before but not enough. The COO leaving is NOT a big deal. A new one comes in and it’s back on its way up! The latest earnings report was great. It recently reported strong Q3 2024 earnings, exceeding expectations with a 30% year-over-year revenue increase. Its full-year sales outlook was raised, now forecasting revenues up to $1.977 billion. Analysts (I know who cares but still) remain optimistic, with an average 12-month price target of $379.81, representing a 42% potential upside from its current price of about $267. Key drivers include its adoption in AI-powered solutions and Atlas database platform growth. I’ve been thanking the Gods for this drop.
NFE Technicals storm for 12/20	Edit: Added PT, timeline, and charts thanks to feedback from u/OryxDaMadGod First post here. I've been following NFE for about 4 months when I wondered why a growth stock was trading so low (it's the debt - always the debt). I think there's something up next week and I wanted to share my analysis to see what others think. Note: I think it's a great long term play (I'm a value investor) even if this doesn't play out. Thesis: The volume needed to drive a breakout from a cup and handle pattern will be triggered by options activity next week. PT: $19-20 long term but some expectation that it will massively overshoot this short term (see discussion below) My strikes sit from $12-15 over the next 5 weeks. I didn't do lots of math to calculate. The volume on options is low so I just looked for strikes that seemed like good deals (e.g. $15 1/17 strikes would go from 35c to 65c on only a 30c underlying price movement so when they pulled back, I bought). Timeline: I think this will take place over the next week but because some of the TA is on the 5 year chart, my strikes go from now into the middle of January. The technicals (note, all options data is for 12/20 which is a major expiration date for this stock): 1. We're 1 week into the handle of a cup and handle pattern Volume has been decreasing in the handle. (sorry chart not too fancy) [volume for the last week of NFE](https://preview.redd.it/mc3w02zem17e1.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1f8ec5e0fe16eca62c2e84d1915ffbb22113f7f) [cup and handle pattern for NFE](https://preview.redd.it/pn0znincn17e1.png?width=1552&format=png&auto=webp&s=98d2f52dc88b9326ad2f140b51d2d1098856f9a5) 2. There are 10k ITM Calls, 58k OTM Puts (average daily volume \~5m so the 1 million shares the ITM calls represent is significant) Sidebar: I notice that when a large amount of Puts are ITM it causes the stock to slide on expiration day and vice versa when a large number of Calls are ITM. This effect centers around the highest OI amounts (maybe there's a name for it, idk - it's not the same as max pain) 3. The largest block of OTM Puts sit below the resistance line ($12) with a fair number of Calls around that strike sitting ITM 4. The largest OI Call is at $19 - which just happens to line up with the cup and handle formula of "rim - bottom + resistance": Approximately 13.5-7.8 + 13.5 = 19.2 That call was opened on 10/25 and coincides with the bottom of the cup AND news that FLNG1 had completed its 3rd run (1st run doesn't matter - 3rd run shows "It works"). This could have been a hedge for a short seller or someone who thought "hey, if it retakes the former bottom resistance, then I want to own the shares". I have no idea. I just find it interesting. It could serve as resistance or support depending on what the buyer is thinking. https://preview.redd.it/ghk6t44zs17e1.png?width=302&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cbd2de384aea1dd80c5937861c56a78f06bb9f7 5. SI is 36.2m shares or almost 32% of the float and daily volume is \~5m 6. The PUT interest for strikes from 10.5-11.5 went up for 12/20 at the same time as the price did and proportionally to the volume increase. This indicates that we have a new buyer hedging in case the price doesn't move the direction they want in the short term. But it also means we have a secondary bullish whale who is willing to support this move by writing the PUTs. Not advice - but anyone can make this trade. As you buy shares, buy PUTs so if the price does fall, you don't lose as much. [PUT interest increase](https://preview.redd.it/7mp4ca3dk17e1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2b3fd2d23ee43eb20b2aaf5392a64ac6303e8ed) 7. The 5 year chart shows head and shoulders (which is bearish) but I think the cup and handle reverses that trend. It also says something fascinating about support. The low of 5 years ago was the low of last month. The current price point is almost the same as the breakout price point from 5 years ago. My PT aligns with previous supports over the last 5 years. [previous support level matches PT](https://preview.redd.it/24plvpppo17e1.png?width=1046&format=png&auto=webp&s=108af57109ab6fed5f01382860ae57dbe2a7bf26) The non-technicals: 1. NFE tanked because of a huge Q2 miss (project delays) and debt concerns. Q3 is back on track. Conspiracy theory time... That "miss" allowed the CEO to invest $50mil at almost the bottom of the cup. There's a lot of correlation/causation arguments to make here, but all I'm saying is, this is how the rich get richer. Note of caution: I think there is a lawsuit related to this. 2. There's been a confluence of good news in the last week. Note: These could be reasons for the right side of the cup forming and without further catalyst, the handle might collapse. \- They've completed all the debt refinancing that they said they would (pushed it to 2029). \- They announced a new 10 year charter with EGAS \- Bloomberg wrote that they're in talks to sell a few assets that could be worth 1-2 billion \- There is supposed to be a 500mil payment from FEMA related to a broken contract. I'm not optimistic on it but if it does happen, it's a catalyst 3. NFE makes money - a lot of it. At the base of the cup, the P/S was \~1. I know this isn't a valid metric for their industry but I find it interesting. They have been burning a lot on CapEx. Tangent: The last time I invested in a company that the markets hated because of CapEx was Facebook at $90. I feel like markets overreact to CapEx. 4. The industry has a PE ratio average of 30. While it's hard to predict NFE's future earnings, even at a conservative $1/share for 2025, you'd be looking at $30. I think that average PE seems high (again, value investor here) but I could justify a 20 ratio given the growth nature which puts us right back at the \~19 target. [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/industry/utilities-regulated-gas/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/industry/utilities-regulated-gas/) 5. The biz is kind of cool - they own the entire supply chain for producing electricity from natural gas (it's not great, but better than coal) and use that to supply countries that have electricity deficiencies with power.
The Nasdaq100 Rebalancing - 4⭐️	Event Date: 13th/16th December 📆 The Nasdaq Rebalancing is a once a year event as stocks get added and stocks get chucked. Each stock that gets added will get a little rally due to massive buying pressure 🥳 ¥\~Present The initial bump is between 3-5% usually from the announcement depending on the stock. Usually followed by 2-4% gains in the following days during the rebalancing. MSTR is in a unique position where it can go up 10-20% with any push during this bull rally. ¥\~Future - Event This will create a forced buying event when they are included in the Nasdaq100 as ETFs like that track the Nasdaq100 would need to rebalance their holdings to comply with their fund rules. this occurs in the weeks leading to the official re-balance date. ¥\~Risks to thesis = * Bearish market sentiment * Other news overshadows ¥\~Execution Time Horizon = Next week Execution Options Strategy = 1 MSTR weekly call ¥\~Key Dates = Friday after hours + Monday Open Checks = Previous Nasdaq Rebalance stocks 2023 initially went up on average 3% and 5% overall in a much more bearish environment. ¥\~My pick MSTR: I went for MSTR yesterday but sold out as the price is linked to bitcoin/PPI report at the moment. I have bought again as market was down yesterday due to PPI risk. MSTR gets the extra boost due to the popularity 🌽 and MSTR is a 🌽 mine. Jim Cramer also questioned Trump on a 🌽 reserve and he responded favourably so any secondary events can push it further fuelling a rally. Position below (not advice): https://preview.redd.it/gb3bxbrefo6e1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80c972244892fa57fbb4ce08f8b062b0e5e4d8f1
$YY - The Chinese Social Media App That’s Already Banned	TLDR: The Bigo Live app has been taken down by Apple and Google for allowing sales of child porn. The Bigo Live app is about 80% of $YY’s revenue - and this hasn’t been reported widely - the stock has barely moved Overview On December 5th, Bigo Live was removed from both the iOS and Android app stores [following reports in the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/07/us/child-abuse-apple-google-apps.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hE4.IjV3.IUb4nn1olfoc&smid=url-share.) of the app allowing users to pay to watch livestreams of child sexual abuse. The app is still gone (search in your app store) Joyy ($YY) is a Chinese social media company that gets most of its revenue from the Bigo Live app. This doesn't seem to be covered anywhere related to $YY - for example [on Marketwatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/yy). Presumably because this is a small-cap Chinese stock no one cares about. The stock is down about 3.5% since the news was reported. $YY Revenue Breakdown Looking at their [Q3 Earnings](https://ir.joyy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/joyy-reports-third-quarter-2024-unaudited-financial-results) \- BIGO apps are about 90% of their profit and revenue. https://preview.redd.it/brtjouauun6e1.png?width=2470&format=png&auto=webp&s=acbab4e2f3d59058a5122617570cd816c282991e Two other apps, IMO and Likee are under BIGO here - but are about 10% of the total revenue https://preview.redd.it/nqwbr0ftun6e1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5d7825599fc604c48519989febd05ba84e07877 So Bigo Live alone should be around 80% of $YY’s revenue and profit. It’s worth noting that average revenue per paying user over the quarter was $231 \- their content clearly monetized well. They do have a website - [bigo.tv](http://bigo.tv) \- but I suspect it’s a small portion of their revenue. They don’t break out the data in their last [annual report](https://ir.joyy.com/static-files/de629d35-c15e-4046-82d7-856fddbd1d41) but they do say >We primarily rely on thirdparty application distribution channels, such as the iOS App Store and the Google Play Store, to allow users to download and access our applications and games. Positions I am short 1,000 shares - honestly - this company should be worth $0 selling this kind of content.
Bigbear.ai will reach 10$	BigBear.AI is a company specializing in artificial intelligence and machine learning, focusing on providing data-driven decision support for businesses, governments, and other organizations. BigBear.AI uses advanced analytics and predictive modeling to help its clients solve complex problems related to operations, supply chain management, cybersecurity, and various other fields. This company is very similar to Palantir. 1. Financial Performance As of its most recent filings, BigBear.AI’s financials reveal some of the typical challenges faced by AI startups. While the company has shown promising revenue growth, it also faces substantial losses typical of growth-oriented tech firms. Here are some points to consider: · Revenue Growth: BigBear.AI has been reporting increasing revenues year-over-year, though it's still in a relatively early stage of growth. The demand for AI-driven solutions in its key markets, particularly in defense and logistics, is a positive sign. · Profitability: The company has not yet achieved profitability, and like many tech firms, it is investing heavily in research and development (R&D) to grow its business. High operating expenses, particularly related to R&D and sales, contribute to ongoing losses. 3. Growth Potential BigBear.AI operates in a rapidly growing market for AI and data analytics, particularly in industries like defense, healthcare, and logistics. AI’s potential for optimizing operations and decision-making is vast, and BigBear.AI is well-positioned to tap into this growth in several ways: · Government Contracts: As a provider of AI-based solutions, BigBear.AI is in a favorable position to secure long-term contracts with the U.S. government and other defense agencies. This is a key growth avenue, especially given the U.S. government's ongoing investments in defense technology and AI. · Private Sector Demand: Outside of government contracts, industries like healthcare, energy, and logistics are investing heavily in AI solutions to improve efficiency and reduce costs. BigBear.AI’s solutions could appeal to these sectors as they continue to digitize operations and use data analytics for decision-making. 4. Competitive Position The AI and analytics space is highly competitive, with numerous well-established players such as Palantir Technologies, IBM, and newer startups like C3.ai. BigBear.AI's competitive advantage lies in its ability to provide highly specialized solutions tailored to industries like defense and logistics. Some of its strengths include: · Niche Focus: BigBear.AI has developed deep expertise in industries where AI can have a transformative impact, such as defense and national security. This focus could help it carve out a strong market position and defend against competition from larger, more diversified companies. · Technological Differentiation: BigBear.AI leverages cutting-edge AI and machine learning techniques, including predictive analytics, which could give it an edge in providing high-value, data-driven insights. 11817 Shares at 2.57$ average cost. PT 10$
"Restoration Hardware: Chart Insights, Citadel's Confidence, and Cramer's Bullish Take"	ERROR: type should be string, got "https://preview.redd.it/q39324n4g56e1.png?width=1480&format=png&auto=webp&s=0260bb0ba6641453c5653d6eaea8777b102d1426\n\nThe much-anticipated earnings report for Restoration Hardware (RH) is here! And just to clear up some confusion—RH is not the ticker for Robinhood, which goes by HOOD. These are two completely different companies operating in entirely separate industries. So let’s not mix them up! Now, let’s dive into the exciting part—analyzing the chart. Think of it as reading a map, with the goal of figuring out where the stock price might be headed next. Charts are like a story—they tell us where the price has been, where it hesitated, and where it’s eager to go next.\n\nHere’s what the chart says about RH:\n\n* September 2023 Selloff: On Friday, September 8, 2023, RH reported earnings, and it was an ugly day for the stock. The market reacted violently, pushing the price down to a low of $220. This became a critical support level, where the stock essentially said, “Okay, this is as low as I’m going.”\n* Consolidation Zone: After that dramatic drop, the stock spent months trading between $260 and $300. This period is what we call the “fair price” range—traders found balance here, agreeing on the stock’s value at that time.\n* March 2024 Surprise Rally: Fast forward to March 27, 2024, RH reported worse-than-expected earnings—revenues came in at $738.26M, well below the $777.5M estimate. Oddly enough, the stock didn’t crash. Instead, it rallied, climbing all the way back to $355, showing the market's resilience and optimism about RH.\n\nNow, let’s talk about more recent events:\n\n* September Earnings Gap Up: This time, RH reported earnings that seemed to excite the market. The stock gapped up and started consolidating in a higher price range. But there’s a catch—it recently tested the $400 resistance level twice and got rejected both times. This formed a classic double top, which typically signals a lack of buying interest at higher levels. Essentially, buyers said, “Not yet.”\n\nSo, what could happen next?\n\n* The 50-day SMA at $342 looks like the first line of defense. If the price drops, it’ll likely touch this level to find support.\n* But here’s where it gets interesting—there’s also an unfilled gap at $290. Gaps on charts act like unfinished business, and prices often revisit them to “fill” the gap. If selling pressure increases, we could see the stock heading back to that level.\n\nLet’s not forget about Citadel's role in this story. On September 26, 2024, Citadel filed a Schedule 13G, revealing they collectively own about 3.9% of RH’s shares. That’s a pretty significant chunk! Kenneth Griffin, Citadel’s founder, has shared voting and dispositive power over these holdings. This kind of institutional backing can be a positive signal—it shows confidence in RH’s potential. However, if Citadel ever decides to sell a substantial portion of their shares, it could create downward pressure on the stock price.\n\nAnd what’s Jim Cramer’s take? He’s bullish on RH! Cramer believes the company’s performance is closely tied to the housing market, which has been showing strength. He even included RH in his top stock picks, emphasizing that it’s outperforming Wall Street’s expectations. His advice? “Buy early to get ahead of the turn.” Basically, he thinks RH is a smart long-term play, especially if the housing sector continues to grow.\n\nIn summary, RH’s chart is telling an exciting story of recovery, resistance, and potential. While the $400 resistance remains a tough hurdle, strong support levels at $342 and $290 could offer opportunities for buyers. Add to that the confidence from Citadel and optimism from Jim Cramer, and you’ve got a stock that’s definitely worth keeping an eye on!"
Unity Technologies	ERROR: type should be string, got "https://preview.redd.it/hbzkp23fz26e1.png?width=3840&format=png&auto=webp&s=698c4992c16ee91fc7afc47c3a28e81add772ebc\n\nUnity Software Inc. (doing business as Unity Technologies) is a technology company that specializes in developing and operating a platform for creating real-time 3D content and experiences. Unity is primarily known for its game engine and development tools, which allow creators to build, run, and monetize interactive 2D and 3D content across various platforms.\n\nTheir engine and development tools is used in wide range of industries including Video game development , architecture and design , automotive , film and animation , and virtual and augmented reality.\n\nThey are a duopoly in the game engine market with Epic Games (Unreal Engine). Unity holds approximately 40-50% of the game engine market share, while Unreal Engine accounts for 10-20%. As of 2023, over 70% of the top mobile games globally were developed using Unity's platform. In 2024, mobile gaming is expected to generate approximately $92.6 billion in revenue compared to $51.9 billion for console gaming and $40 billion for PC gaming. As of 2024, a significant portion of VR apps in the Apple Store are likely created using Unity, with estimates suggesting that over 60% of AR/VR content across platforms is made with Unity.\n\nUnity's stock have been doing poorly ever since the great 2022 bear market , the John Riccitiello fee incident (2022) , and the dreadful IronSource purchase (2022) under his tenure. They have since fired him in 2023 and appointed Matthew Bromberg as Unity's new Chief Executive Officer, President, and a member of the Unity Board of Directors, effective May 15, 2024. Bromberg has since replaced all the C-suites with competent people. They did a reset on their portfolio to put their focus on their core business which they refer to as their \"Strategic Portfolio\": the Engine, Cloud and Monetization.\n\nThe Strategic Portfolio consists of two main segments:\n\n* Create Solutions: This segment encompasses Unity's game development platform and tools. In Q3 2024, Create Solutions revenue grew 5% year-over-year, driven by subscription growth. The Create segment includes:\n\n1. Unity game engine and development tools\n2. Unity 6, the latest version of the engine with over 500,000 downloads\n3. Expansion into non-gaming industries (Industry segment), which grew 59% year-over-year and represents 18% of Create revenue\n\n* Grow Solutions: This segment includes advertising and monetization tools. In Q3 2024, Grow Solutions revenue declined by 5%. It focuses on:\n\n1. Advertising technology\n2. Monetization services for game developers\n3. Development of a new advertising model set to launch in 2025\n\nLet's discuss the mobile gaming monetization and advertising space and their competitor AppLovin (the stock that is up 768% YTD) . AppLovin wanted to buy Unity for $20B back in 2022 to form a monopoly but got rejected. Unity has since failed to keep up with AppLovin who is now the third largest mobile gaming in-app advertising network after Google and Meta. Unity-ironSource platform couldn't compete with AppLovin's platform but things are about to change because the new CEO hired Jim Payne to join the company as Chief Product Officer for Advertising effective August 12, 2024. Payne co-founded MoPub, the world’s largest mobile in-app ad server and exchange, and MAX Advertising Systems, a mobile header bidding platform (both acquired by AppLovin and are essential pieces to their success). In their latest earning's call Bromberg said they have a new machine learning model in their new neural network that is being tested on their live data that will be ready to launch when it's ready (probably sometime next year). APP's current mcap is $111B while Unity is at $10.78B , if their new ML model is competitive , the stock can easily 10x from here just from the Grow Solutions business. This is why some people are looking to short AppLovin and long Unity.\n\nOn the Create Solution side Unity recently announced on Oct 30, 2024 they hired Ex-King CTO and Havok Co-Founder Steve Collins as CTO which will add key technical leadership to accelerate product innovation, quality, and stability. In 2023, Havok products were used in twelve of the top twenty best selling video games in the United States. Their 3D engine is utilized not only for game development but also by a diverse range of clients in non-gaming industries for real-time product visualization, virtual prototyping, AR customer experiences, digital twins and other 3D applications. This segment grew 59% year-over-year and is expected to become an increasingly significant contributor to their Create revenue in the future.\n\n[Palantir's Mixed Reality offerings are built with Unity's 3D engine. They are just one of several partners from industries outside of gaming. https:\\/\\/www.palantir.com\\/offerings\\/mixed-reality\\/](https://preview.redd.it/zw7w2aj2z26e1.png?width=2379&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4f900c7489db3c6841321cb494c66a8c0035add)\n\nUnity's engine and development tools is also utilized by the The Department of Defense (DoD). They primarily use the Unity engine to create realistic, immersive virtual training simulations for military personnel, allowing them to practice complex scenarios in a safe and controlled environment across various domains like combat tactics, vehicle operation, war simulations and situational awareness, all within a 3D digital world.\n\nUnity Technologies Corporation (UnityTec) has been awarded two significant contracts related to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD):\n\n* [JETS 2.0 Contract](https://govtribe.com/opportunity/federal-contract-opportunity/dla-j6-enterprise-technology-services-jets-2-dot-0-sp470923r0001-45) : UnityTec secured a position on the Defense Logistics Agency's J6 Enterprise Technologies Services 2.0 (JETS 2.0) multiple-award, Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract. This contract has a maximum value of $12 billion and will provide a broad range of IT-related services to the entire DoD for up to 12 years.\n* CACI Contract: Unity signed a \"multi-million dollar\" contract with enterprise technology firm CACI to become the \"preferred real-time 3D platform\" for U.S. government defense projects.\n\nNow back in 2015 [Mark Zuckerberg sent a four page internal email](https://sriramk.com/memos/zuck-unity.pdf) to key executives to get in early on the AR and VR future. In that email , Mark Zuckerberg wanted to purchase Unity because he believes AR/VR is the major computing platform after mobile and they will gain control over a key development platform for AR/VR content. He believes the acquisition of Unity would also mitigate the risk of a competitors like Google and Apple from acquiring them and limiting Meta (Facebook then) access to the platform. One of the possible reasons the acquisition fell through is antitrust concerns because Meta would be a monopoly in VR/AR if they own Unity.\n\nI believe the future is XR (extended reality) and that XR will be next major and final computing platform after mobile. I believe Meta could potentially become the largest company in the world within the next 10-20 years if Apple/Google/Microsoft don't catch up in XR especially in AR which Meta is leading. Regardless of who wins, Unity will be one of the main foundations behind the XR gold rush. In conclusion, I’m highly optimistic about Unity, as they hold a vital role in the XR ecosystem. This is a long-term investment for generational wealth.\n\nThis post is made for posterity.\n\nhttps://i.redd.it/ohx7bzjg16ie1.gif\n\nPositions:\n\nhttps://preview.redd.it/73iy0b8qu6ce1.png?width=2431&format=png&auto=webp&s=7996f5bdb6e650c8f398c1b41fa3bb103d38bd41"
ARGT will continue to grow uncontrollably for the foreseeable future.	While this isn't a stock that is going to make you a millionaire overnight it is definitely a stock that will make you a millionaire in a year if you play your cards right. ARGT is an etf tracking Argentinian linked companies. If you had been paying attention to the news recently you would know that Argentinas economy is completely in the shitter. It's been completely ruined by the government and suffering from true hyperinflation for years. However last year a man name Milei took control of the government and began slashing government spending like crazy to reduce inflation. Inflation is way down (with still quite a ways to go) and the economy is beginning to show signs of life, but the place is still an economic shitshow that will take some years to fix. However in those years of recovery you have the opportunity to get exposure to a rapidly recovering economy at the ground level. Based on the stock price, the markets have clearly seen the potential for the Argentinian economy and milei is cozying up to trump and Elon specifically which will be helpful in obtaining foreign investments from the US. If you look at the ARGT ticker you will see it on an insane but consistent run since milei came into power. This is not a single ticker that will 10x overnight or that will short squeeze, but it will very likely continue to rise 50-100% per year for several years going forward (barring global economic catastrophe). The economy is coming off historic lows and international financial optimism is rising with every new inflation and gdp metric they publish. I am jacked to the tits with 95$ July 2025 calls, and I encourage you to do the same as well. If the rate of growth of this etf maintains its current pace the stock will be around 120-130 by July 2025 and those calls will return 8-10x (currently those options are selling for approximately 4$). Positions: 10x calls 4/17/2025 $75 31x calls 7/18/2025 $95 1000 shares
DD for the Upcoming Mining market for Crypto over the next four years	Okay guys so I've never made a DD post. This is prep for the next four years. What is DD on? Well, The crypto market. And before anyone says bItcOiN oNLy, i'm talking about Bitcoin, but mainly the companies around bitcoin. What do I mean? There are companies that literally just mine bitcoin as a "job" So I have three as of rn since I don't make a lot of money and have to buy cheap. Riot Industries $RIOT, Bitfarms $BITF, and Hive $HIVE. Literally anything crypto mining related right, but I think RIOT will get the most benefit out of all because it's headquartered in the Great US of A. So as of making this post, RIOT is at 12$. I actually used to own 100 shares but I discovered options and went from 3k to 0 and haven't traded in a while. However, I'm an orthodox marxist and me no like my country anymore, so Imma head out on jah just gotta get some money first. Okay, so Riot has three plantations where they mine Bitcoin. As everyone knows, the Trump pick made crypto go on a bull run and Bitcoin reached 100k before lowering back down. I think there is a small market correction atm, but Trump has stated he wants to hold 1mil in Bitcoin for the US reserve. He also wants to make the US the "Crypto capital of the world." I think the mf just wants to pump and dump on the international level. I bet Bitcoin gets to 200k by the end of his term. Analysts have said Bitcoin could hit 1 mil by 2030, but I didn't believe that until Trump started saying the shit he did. Now, one of the biggest issues of crypto mining is the power usage. Please just google how much power it takes to mine bitcoin. a NYT article called out Riot for running mainly on fossil fuels (96%). Riot clapped back and said they use this that and the other thing adding up to 35% but conveniently didn't mention where the other majority of power was coming from. So I think it's safe to assume fossil fuels. All that is cool but what about it So Trump has talked about starting a trade war with like everyone. But for this research I specifically looked at China, Canada, and Mexico. The top 10 things mexico gives us in exports is fucking petroleum. Canada, Natural gas. China actually doesn't matter atm unless you want to big brain it and point at we get an asston of machinery from them and I would guess we get quite a few components used for bitcoin mining. I also looked at what we like to import and export with fossil fuels right. So we are actually at a point where we are producing more energy than we use and exporting more than importing. THAT BEING SAID, It's still going to hurt the energy department but we're not as reliant as I had initially assumed. So, I learned that a lot of the energy we use here in the US to power our energy grids is fucking Natural Gas. Like, an asston. Check this graph out. https://preview.redd.it/fogzol8rb26e1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bd96872d3cde474b933532594e9de9bea30cdeb So the unfortunate news is I do believe that the energy is going to suffer a little bit which could in the short term completely backshot Riot industries causing a drop in the stock. However, I don't think that will happen because everyone is going to be buying up bitcoin and that stock since that's all they do. [The red line is our exports - Blue imports](https://preview.redd.it/oknplw00c26e1.png?width=846&format=png&auto=webp&s=17cae4ab6d5d780cca6ce16997882cc4900bf78a) So why should I trust you? Well let my banbet record speak for itself. https://preview.redd.it/6ap622pr826e1.png?width=1313&format=png&auto=webp&s=7629a6beeef677e32aa8b0b73dd8353078f5dc69 You shouldn't. My track record is horrible but I want to explain myself. So historically, I'll browse this subreddit and see other people talking about a stock and what they think. I never put a lot of thought into it like I have this. This is my area of expertise. Side note, sorry to dude who posted the DD I bought calls and the stock immediately dumped now I'm bagholding .01 9$ calls for 12/20 so my b Since we've established that I am not trustworthy, here is why you shouldn't trust me using data So total revenue for my robinhood account is 3k down to 0, then up to 1k, now down to 500. If I stay away from options I make money. I bought SOFI when it was 4$, sold for a profit. Looked at Hut 8 mining almost two years ago at like 2-4$ whatever it was but wanted to play with options, now its 25$. Bought crypto made money on that. I just can't do options. Please remember that, "I Just cant do options." Crypto is a scam Crypto is like literally an infinite money glitch. We all decide it has more value and poof it goes up. That doesn't work with fiat (I don't like the fiat system but that's not for here). It'll take one solar flare to bankrupt anyone who only has crypto assets. I like the idea of crypto, but just logically speaking it doesn't do anything to buy it other than cause a shrinkage of it. Infinite money glitch. I've not been profitable on the stocks I actually mean just the market, but legit dude fr I can't make money gambling on options to save my life. You wanna know what I can make money on that I have more than once though? Fucking blackjack. I have gambled on blackjack this year on online casinos and have a net profit of at least 2k. I will not say the amount that I have won in it's entirety, but if there's anything I'm good at, it's knowing basic strategy at Blackjack. Right now, I'm staying away from the casino and trying a new side hustle because I got a part time job working in retail as a cashier. Life suck. Side note from future me during my week ban, I've been sports betting with positive EV and have made 1500$ over the last seven days. That's more than I've earned on Robinhood since I made the account in 2020 as a 20 year old. I'm net negative 1500 on there according to the site. Also, I said "future me" because I've had this sitting in a draft that I occasionally have come back to edit. Why all that matter Remember what I said to remember? Well I am going to buy spy calls for the Fed meeting. I already have money allocated to it in robinhood. Good luck cause I usually lose when I buy calls. A recession is coming. This next Administration is going to come with a recession and no I'm not saying that cause I'm mad I'm saying that because I believe it because the analysts believe it. That part about buying SPY calls though I 100% am considering depositing some money to buy some. Even with a recession I don't believe the crypto market will follow as long as Trump does the crypto shit he says he'll do. My Positions Here is my robinhood atm. I don't have as much money as everybody else just bear with me. [I had to shrink the file down sorry for the grain](https://preview.redd.it/k5qsqwhta26e1.jpg?width=250&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dfa3913214e5740487127ceb7df6c3d891008ff) So I am going to buy and hold every stock that is literally just a company for mining bitcoin. I have already started and will use my oddsjam earnings to put into these stocks. I'm tired of being poor and want to prove myself here. I may be back for these companies earnings calls next year but we will see. Positions Positions are buy buy buy all crypto related stocks that mine. Buy Bitcoin too maybe even the ETF. I'm not sure yet if these stocks will boom and stay at high prices or not, but as of right now they are cheap. They will 100% double but whether or not they stay doubled, idk. If you reverse me, buy puts on Riot. TLDR: Crypto boom. Stonks quiet. When crypto boom and double, SELL. When stonk red, buy stonk cause red is temporary green is forever. If reverse me, Buy puts for the fed meeting and sell all of your crypto. Sources: [https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/imports-and-exports.php) [https://cryptoslate.com/riot-platforms-responds-to-nyt-article-on-bitcoin-mining/](https://cryptoslate.com/riot-platforms-responds-to-nyt-article-on-bitcoin-mining/) [https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/imports-and-exports.php](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/imports-and-exports.php) [https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3) [https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/11/29/what-does-the-us-import-from-mexico-canada-and-china/](https://www.forbes.com/sites/katharinabuchholz/2024/11/29/what-does-the-us-import-from-mexico-canada-and-china/) [https://www.ilscompany.com/products-imported-from-mexico/](https://www.ilscompany.com/products-imported-from-mexico/)
$RIVN is the new $CVNA	Let’s do a concise yet precise DD on this turd machine called $RIVN. I don’t want to go into too much details because I feel lazy as fuck and you’ll eventually just yolo your money into some stupid short term option that will make you feel like you’re doing crack while going to $0. Burp. Bullish points - Gen 2 has a much more cost efficient build that was made very clear by CEO during last earning call. He even said “Block the noise, we are having great progress with our Gen 2…”. If this turn out to be fake then I’ll short it to $0 because using this terminology means business. If he can’t deliver or just lied then he toast. - The turnaround story must be real, they must be fighting every second of every day to reduce costs and survive. What did this kind of management behaviour gave as a result for $CVNA ? Don’t start to touch yourself i’m not done yet. - The market sentiment is almost at an all time low, and rightfully so as they navigate a bunch of problems they caused themselves by being kind of moronic. The bet here is that they will improve on that aspect and stop shooting themselves in the foot every 2 minutes. - The cars are loved by their owners, this is self explanatory, a great product will always win and everything will be done to avoid seing it disappear. - The new cars will be a massive catalyst up to their launch if you have the patience to hold for at least 1 full year. The R2 will be a best seller and will absolutely destroy the market in which it will be competing. I would 100% buy one if I could. - The cars are US made and in this case the US manufactures are not just fighting Tesla they’re fighting China and a tech US company going bankrupt will not fly with the Trump administration. Bearish points will be quick, we all know why it’s a turd - Not being gross margin profitable is a crazy achievement for any kind of respected company, that’s some new regarded level of regardness. - They could fail on everything they’re trying to accomplish - R2 might just be an other turd machine that doesn’t fit in any market - Elon Musk is literally running the country and has people everywhere, maybe he’ll just want to fuck with Rivian even if it’s a net negative for the US I have more to say but I just gave you bunch of regards way too much to read at once and I don’t want to fry the 2 remaining brain cells you still have up there. Give a like and subscribe ! Or, go fuck yourself
TSLA MSTR COIN RACE TO 1000	We have to admit it, regards won! Portfolio managers spending their whole life aiming for +5%/year got smoked by regards that did 10x in 1-2 years. So what's the plan now? What's stopping these 3 to reach $1000 / share? Lets analyze them: 1. TSLA. At $1000/share it's \~3.2T valuation. Around 2.5x from here. 2. MSTR. At $1000/share it's \~225B valuation. Around 2.75x from here. 3. COIN. At $1000/share it's \~250B valuation. Around 3.3x from here. Market cap wise, COIN or MSTR probably has the best chance here but perhaps TSLA goes on a NVDA run to $1000/share. So if we know this then what's the play for regards? Double leveraged of course! TSLL @ 29. At 5x TSLL would be 150, probably more like 135 with decay. MSTU @ 134. At 5.5x MSTU would be 737, probably more like 600 with decay. CONL @ 55. At 6.6x CONL would be 360, probably more like 300 with decay. https://preview.redd.it/7jkzuhvsy16e1.png?width=3072&format=png&auto=webp&s=462d5eae35b5aeea77ed036b92288ddbd2f833da
CureVac DD	Firstly, look at the chart. It's got a classic smiley face formation; this is a very bullish indicator. Other stocks (which I'm not going to mention because it got my post removed last time) had a similar graph before its runup, and so did many other stocks with big run-ups recently. Secondly, there is a DD written about it on this subreddit which wasn't written by ChatGPT. That is another clear indicator that this stock will do well, just like some others. Thirdly, it's up 12% in the past week - decent momentum. Fourthly, and perhaps more importantly, they are trading at an incredibly cheap valuation. * Their TTM Net Income is $123 million, and this isn't one-time non-operating income; this is one-time operating income, and therefore more likely to recur in the future. * In addition, they had $145 million in R&D expenses, which really shouldn't be considered expenses but rather investments, since R&D expenses can be turned off at any time. This makes for a total of around $268 million. And when excluding R&D expenses, they have been profitable for a long time, and are still growing, but are down since 2021. For comparison, their market cap is ~~$681 million~~ $745 million and their enterprise value is ~~$78 million~~ $125 million (I started writing this DD last week and it's grown 12% since then); if they continue making money at this rate, you will get your money back in 3 years or less - 33% annual growth. And likely much more, since the enterprise value is the more relevant metric; potentially 200% annual growth if they're aggressive enough with buybacks. And if there's another major virus, it will likely make 2021 income levels ($959 million R&D expenses + $-486 million net income = $491 million earnings before R&D). Fair value would probably be around 4x as high as it currently is, and from momentum it could potentially reach up to 2x fair value for a total gain of 8x. What They Do: CureVac is an mRNA vaccine company. Their main competitor is Moderna, which has a market cap of $17.5 billion and is unprofitable (although once you remove R&D expenses, they are admittedly much more profitable than CureVac, but the profit difference is not large enough to justify the difference in market cap and certainly isn't enough to justify the difference in enterprise value). mRNA technology demonstrated its potential during the pandemic, when it helped rapidly develop vaccines to combat a novel virus. CureVac failed to create an effective enough vaccine during the pandemic, which resulted in the large stock price declines over the past few years; the reason for this is that they used unmodified natural mRNA which was less stable in the body, whereas Moderna used a modified varient. They have changed their approach in recent years, resulting in a 1.45 billion euro deal with GlaxoSmithKline, a major British pharma company. See [this article\(https://www.labiotech.eu/in-depth/curevac-gsk-deal-mrna/) for more information (I didn't write it but did use it for research). Risks: * Robert F Kennedy Jr - the risk is overblown because he's going to in charge of the Department of Health and Human Services, not the FDA, and therefore will not have the authority to ban their vaccines * Competition from Moderna - Moderna has a much larger cash pile so can spend more on research and development; however, CureVac can still get some market share and has some patents (though some of them have recently been invalidated); plus if necessary, they can borrow money for R&D. Positions: 13% of my portfolio in CVAC shares
Coin is going UP	First of all, Coinbase is an excellent stock which profits on directional movement of crypto regardless of direction. They make money either way because they're the real-life banker in Monopoly. Indicators: Now, Coinbase is currently trading at $319.11, as I write this, with -STRONG support at $315.37 as well as a support zone starting at $306.30 to $307.57 as well as another support zone from $313.30 to $315.72. -STOCH RSI crossed into bullish territory at 1 10 p.m. today. -RSI made a bullish cross at the same point in time. -Volume: selling pressure decreasing as buying pressure increases. -OBV BULLISH: OBV increasing with price increase I personally hypothesize that Coinbase is going to break its highs, and I'm setting my biggest take profit at $378, in which 50% of my position will be liquidated. Additionally, I'm setting my second take profit at $363.87, during which I will liquidate 30% of my position. And finally, my first take profit will be at $339.62, which has been an area of support and resistance over the past few days. Currently, I think Coinbase is going to break its daily high of $321.17 in the very short future. Additionally, I project it breaking through the resistance around $322.56 as well. My stop loss is going to be set at $305.25, just below the second area of support. As if it breaks this, we are in bearish territory. Do your own research and never risk more than what you are able and willing to lose in any investment. Please view it on your own charts as well to avoid risk of seizures. You asked me to tell you ahead of time when I predict a breakout… I don’t have a crystal ball and I cannot see the future, but I can add up what various indicators say and cross check them and come up with my own conclusion. I urge you to do the same. Thank you, and good luck. Price is $319.01 as I write this. My current positions for the week are shown. Closed last week with a hefty profit. I am also bullish on BITX, MARA & RDDT - but do your own research please.
Here's why I'm shorting Soundhound, a current WSB darling	Alright, degenerates, let’s talk about SOUN. If you’ve been printing tendies off this 600% rocket, congrats – I genuinely mean that (but also, fuck you). But here’s the thing: stocks don’t just go up forever, and Soundhound’s hype train has more red flags than a Chinese parade. The good news? You can still make money – big money – by embracing your inner gay bear and shorting this house of cards for all the reasons I’m about to tell you. [Position: Short 1,000 SOUN shares](https://imgur.com/a/5qWs8Sp) Tl;dr: * At the start of the year, Nvidia crossed the $100M threshold in securities holdings, requiring it to disclose its stock portfolio for the first time, thanks in large part to the ARM IPO. Among its disclosed investments was SOUN, which sent the stock soaring, trading its second-highest daily volume ever. * Ever the opportunist, SOUN CEO Keyvan Mohajer issued a press release a month later hyping Soundhound’s integration with Nvidia DRIVE, despite Soundhound having been an ecosystem partner for over six months already. SOUN is pushed to new highs, with its highest daily trading volume on record. * Shortly thereafter, speculation (mine) suggests a key customer informed SOUN of their intention not to renew a licensing agreement. High on tendies but short on time, Mohajer acquires a much larger, declining legacy business—Amelia. This move masked Soundhound's declining performance while propping up top-line revenue * Naturally, WSB and retail traders ate it up, fueling the hype cycle \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ # Despite misleading headlines of “record” growth last quarter, Soundhound revenue is declining Soundhound reported “record” Q3 revenue of $25.1M, up 89% year-over-year – but failed to mention that all of this “growth” came from having closed its acquisition of Amelia in the quarter, and in reality, Soundhound’s business declined \~9%. Nowhere does Soundhound disclose how much revenue Amelia contributed in the quarter, but pretty much any regard with half a brain can figure it out from the merger filings. Amelia generated revenue of $45M in the first half of 2024, down 4% year-over-year (yes, the company they acquired *is also declining). Assuming the same negative growth rate in the second half, you get \~$44.7M. [Amelia Revenue](https://preview.redd.it/o6mvsq4dav5e1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=53f34074638912ededf539313815c93fb003f2b7) We don’t have quarterly results for Amelia; however, we can observe that there isn’t any seasonality between the first and second half of 2023. This might seem odd if you’re familiar with SaaS, because there tends to be seasonality in Q4, but Amelia is actually not a SaaS business, despite best efforts to hide that fact. It sells on premise software licenses, and most of its revenue comes from maintenance services and professional services. Therefore, it’s fair to assume that revenue is recognized evenly over the quarters, so we can estimate Q3 2024 revenue for Amelia to be \~$22M (50% \ $44.7M). Since the acquisition closed in the middle of the quarter (8/8/2024), Soundhound was able to recognize \~58% of Amelia’s Q3 revenue and included this in its Q3 results. Of the $22M that Amelia generated in Q3, *$13M (58% \ $22M) of that was recognized by Soundhound as revenue generated by Amelia after 8/8/2024. Backing this out of Soundhound’s “record” Q3 revenue, we can see that the organic Soundhound business generated just \~$12M, declining \~9% year-over-year. [Soundhound Q3 Growth](https://preview.redd.it/yu7yewcf5v5e1.png?width=287&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a4772913c6de5115fd73ae89163d65190b96187) Honestly, this is so basic and wrong that I can’t believe the Company had the balls to run with this headline. The stock isn’t widely covered, but not a single analyst brought it up on the earnings call or in their subsequent reports. Obviously it’s wrong to compare results that include revenue from an acquisition to a prior quarter that doesn’t - you’re not comparing the same company between periods. The reason it’s wrong is because in this case, revenue for both Amelia AND Soundhound declined in the quarter, yet presented this way it appears that the combined business actually grew! Even worse, Q4 guidance implies organic revenue will decline by a staggering 27% YoY. This isn’t a growth story; it’s a shrinking one, cleverly obscured by acquisition accounting. [Soundhound Q4 guidance](https://preview.redd.it/tdflfz1j5v5e1.png?width=296&format=png&auto=webp&s=c27f8baa8ce37100bf9ab74aad5af901f0ffef70) When I first saw these numbers, I thought something must be wrong with my math. Software companies don’t just decline after periods of rapid growth, they have recurring revenue that you can see declining way before it happens. But Soundhound is not a subscription software business at all - 95% of their revenue comes from product royalties that depend on the in-period sales of physical products like cars, smart speakers, and other devices. [Soundhound revenue by type](https://preview.redd.it/ruxcyb0s5v5e1.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f2a5ffd325ab2615d2c0831f31a879b92cebb19) This is not an isolated incident, but rather a pattern of misleading and selective disclosure by the company. # Amelia: A legacy boomer-tech business that now represents 2/3rds of Soundhound's revenue Amelia, the acquisition that accounts for this “growth,” is a declining, legacy business. Founded in 1998 as IPSoft, Amelia’s has always specialized in automating back-office stuff with rudimentary chatbots. Amelia only recently began offering customer-facing chatbots, which it now claims to be leading AI Agents despite not being built on a modern LLM stack. Don’t take my word for it, you can see for yourself just how leading Amelia’s “conversational AI” is. Amelia counts American Heritage Credit Union as a proud customer, and you can go to their [website](https://www.americanheritagecu.org/), click Live Chat, and you’ll be taken to a dialogue box where you can chat with an Amelia powered agent - it even proudly displays the Amelia logo in the bottom right. Here’s how my conversation went: [Amelia Chat](https://preview.redd.it/r5ujc4en6v5e1.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb43d5aff2e3d3fb7da62ce343c93c9c2574cd12) Nothing about this interaction was helpful, and it couldn’t answer basic questions like “What are some things you can help me with?”. This is not AI, this is the same old, legacy chatbots powered by rudimentary decision trees that have been the standard for decades. Contrast this experience with one powered by a truly leading AI Agent, Sierra. Sierra counts OluKai, a footwear retailer, as a customer, and you can chat with their AI Agent by going to the OluKai [website ](https://olukai.com/pages/contact)and clicking “Contact Us”. Here’s how my conversation went: [Sierra chat](https://preview.redd.it/b7txd7lq6v5e1.png?width=559&format=png&auto=webp&s=088bfe0c601b8be9afd42b1acb3d6c2ecd3430e6) The difference is night and day. The Sierra-powered agent is actually inferring and reasoning like a human agent would. And Sierra isn’t the only well funded competitor automating customer service operations with AI, there’s also Salesforce, Microsoft, Kore.ai, Yellow.ai, Parloa, and many others. None of this should be controversial or surprising - Amelia is boomer tech founded in the 90s, with loads of technical debt and miscalculated moves compounded over 25 years. But, let’s suppose Amelia truly were a leading, next generation conversational AI company and has been for decades. If that were the case, why would revenue be declining despite selling into an environment where CEOs and CIOs are hyper-focused on how they can leverage Generative AI in their customer service operations? That would be like losing money as a crypto trader in 2024 - the problem might be you. None of this would be too concerning for Soundhound if it wasn’t for the materiality of the acquisition and its size relative to Soundhound. Amelia is a much shittier business than Soundhound, but it’s also \~2x its size from a financial perspective. Soundhound’s financials will now be driven by the results of Amelia, and so too will the stock price. Here’s the side-by-side combined view of the income statement that was filed as part of the merger: https://preview.redd.it/icz23hx07v5e1.png?width=1387&format=png&auto=webp&s=95b6f256e0975d1efcbd30088077176ed268f551 In 2023, Soundhound generated revenue of \~$46M, compared to Amelia which generated $93M. Going forward, Amelia will represent the majority of Soundhound’s revenue, good or bad. And I think it’s bad, because this is low quality, low margin revenue. Amelia’s cost of revenue was $65.7M, leaving gross profit of $27.6M, for a whopping gross margin of 30%! Seriously, do you know of any software company with 30% gross margins? YETI makes common household items out of metal and has better margins than this. The reason Amelia’s margins are so terrible is because they don’t sell very much software, despite their best efforts to hide that fact. Here’s the revenue composition that was disclosed in the merger filings: [Amelia revenue by type](https://preview.redd.it/hfmpse697v5e1.png?width=770&format=png&auto=webp&s=8347bb1b070988f4e2b28a5fc51760fa07978b9c) The vast majority of revenue came from “Subscription”, which, according to the company, includes SaaS revenue but also ongoing support and maintenance service revenue. The reason they’re not breaking out SaaS revenue separately is because it would be immaterial and embarrassing to report, so they’ve combined it with services and called the whole thing “Subscription”. Obviously these are not the same. SaaS and Licenses command 80%+ gross margins - very different from Amelia’s gross margin of 30%. # Soundhound's business model is fundamentally flawed and overexposed to risk Soundhound isn’t a SaaS company. 95% of its revenue comes from product royalties, heavily dependent on the sales of physical goods like cars and smart speakers. This is not a recurring software model; their revenue is highly susceptible to fluctuations from the sales of its own customers. Adding to the problem is customer concentration: 62% of Soundhound’s revenue comes from just two automotive customers, likely Hyundai and Kia. If either customer scales back purchases, Soundhound’s revenue will crater. https://preview.redd.it/lwhmohjk7v5e1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=684e25adcd9bcb7a1aa1d565549e32196a4c429e Worse, only 15% of Soundhound’s revenue comes from US customers. Since most of Soundhound’s revenue comes from product royalties, and most of these royalties come from customers located outside the US, Soundhound is exposed to US tariff and trade policy that could negatively impact the sales of its foreign customers. https://preview.redd.it/zgvxxjan7v5e1.png?width=529&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3483c49c95c31b3f348a3f0a1f8f49bd1f87d5 # The NVIDIA hype is an overblown fantasy perpetuated by Soundhound's CEO If you’ve been riding the SOUN hype train, you’re probably thinking: “But what about Nvidia!” And sure, Nvidia’s name being linked to Soundhound gave this stock rocket fuel. But here’s the cold, hard truth: this “partnership” is anything but strategic and it's more smoke than substance. Yes, Nvidia owns a small stake in Soundhound – just 1.7M common shares – but this is not a new development. Nvidia first invested in Soundhound back in 2017 as part of a [private $75M venture round](https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/31/soundhound-raises-75m-to-bring-its-voice-enabled-ai-everywhere/), long before the stock ever traded publicly. This investment was disclosed again during Soundhound’s [2021 de-SPAC process](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1840856/000121390021059758/ea150505ex99-2_archimedes.htm), yet retail investors and media only took notice when [Nvidia filed its first-ever 13-F](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581024000021/xslForm13F_X02/information_table.xml) report in February 2024, disclosing its SOUN holdings. The market collectively lost its mind, sending SOUN up 67% in a single day. https://preview.redd.it/3o6rpulq7v5e1.png?width=1904&format=png&auto=webp&s=224e650fcb4281072d203301362e0f74fdb2a786 Prior to this, the one and only time NVIDIA was ever mentioned in any of Soundhound’s earnings transcripts was in Q2 2023, when CEO Keyvan Mohajer rattled off a list 9 “strategic” investors, NVIDIA among them: https://preview.redd.it/0y6gvezt7v5e1.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=379365fe89c9d7410816d3ea0dc662c10d27180e Just one month after the NVIDIA 13-F filing, in an effort to capitalize on the hype, Soundhound issued a [press release](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240318067099/en/) about its integration with Nvidia’s DRIVE platform for in-vehicle voice assistants. During its next earnings call, Kevyon mentions NVIDIA six times, describing the “collaboration” as a “very big milestone” for in-vehicle generative AI. While Kevyon positioned the “partnership” as new, Soundhound has been an NVIDIA DRIVE partner since at least October 2023 based on a trip to the Wayback machine [NVIDIA DRIVE Partners, Oct 2023](https://preview.redd.it/4toe71qx7v5e1.png?width=1350&format=png&auto=webp&s=a596eeddf44e08e19aaf7dd7c321a3d886ad4ea1) But let’s examine the facts. [Nvidia’s DRIVE platform](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-driving-cars/partners/) is an end-to-end development platform for autonomous vehicles, designed to attract a broad ecosystem of partners. It’s not an exclusive club. Nvidia’s DRIVE Partner Ecosystem website lists over 100 partners, including Soundhound’s closest competitor (Ironically I'll be banned for mentioning its ticker). Nvidia even published a [blog post](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/cerence-generative-ai-in-car-experience/) showcasing its offerings on the DRIVE platform – something it hasn’t done for Soundhound. If this “partnership” were truly transformative, wouldn’t Nvidia at least acknowledge Soundhound publicly? [NVIDIA DRIVE Partners, Current $Cerence$](https://preview.redd.it/c0iczsy28v5e1.png?width=1415&format=png&auto=webp&s=63a889071b541ebc556505e51c7e2a5b0ec9e2ec) The reality is, Soundhound’s integration with DRIVE is one of many among hundreds of partners. This isn’t a deep, strategic relationship – it’s a basic vendor integration, the kind that doesn’t move the needle for Nvidia. Soundhound hyped it up because they knew the name recognition alone would excite retail investors, but the lack of reciprocation from Nvidia tells a different story.** This isn’t a transformative partnership; it’s an opportunistic narrative crafted to milk the Nvidia association for all it’s worth. Don’t fall for the hype. # Soundhound has obfuscated the true price it paid for Amelia, which is much higher than headline reports of $80M (as much as 3x higher) In its [press release](https://www.soundhound.com/newsroom/press-releases/soundhound-ai-acquires-amelia-significantly-expanding-its-scale-and-reach-in-conversational-ai-across-new-verticals-and-hundreds-of-enterprise-brands/) announcing the acquisition, Soundhound characterized the purchase price as “$80 million in cash and equity, with partial payment and assumption of Amelia’s debt, as well as future earnout potential…” While there’s nothing wrong with this statement, it’s unusual that the number they decided to disclose ($80M) wasn’t the full transaction price. Now, you may not believe this is misleading, but it literally misled Techcrunch, which wrote up a story on the acquisition, announcing it as an $80M deal. https://preview.redd.it/zv6qjd798v5e1.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1b556d4a600df16dfc48a0a38d59c79ce40bf64 The details can be found in the [stock purchase agreement](https://www.bamsec.com/filing/121390024066351/2?cik=1840856), but here’s the summary: After accounting for the $80M upfront payment, $70M in paid-down debt, $39.7M in assumed debt, $8.6M in transaction expenses, and up to $90M in equity earnouts, the total acquisition cost could hit $288M (and much higher at these current prices) This price tag is staggering for a declining business with abysmal gross margins. Soundhound’s selective disclosure of Amelia’s cost highlights a troubling pattern: management glosses over bad news and amplifies good news, regardless of the facts. # Implied valuation for Soundhound is astronomical, even by WSB standards I won’t spend much time on this topic, because honestly, who cares? Prices go up and down all the time. But there’s an important nuance here, and it has to do with how Amelia is valued with the rest of Soundhound Soundhound currently trades at an enterprise value of $5.4 billion, or 32.8x forward revenue. But most of this revenue comes from Amelia, and $1 from Amelia is worth much less than $1 from Soundhound (that’s how Soundhound was able to acquire a business with much more revenue than itself). We don’t know what Amelia is worth today, but we can approximate it as the maximum amount Soundhound could end up paying for it ($288M). After all, that’s what Soundhound just paid for the asset in August. With this information we can back into the implied value of the core Soundhound business, which is $5.1 billion at a revenue multiple of 68x. For comparison, Palantir only trades at a lofty 2025 revenue multiple of 49x. But at least with Palantir, you’re getting a differentiated business, with competitive moats and deep ties to the incoming administration that happens to be Palantir’s biggest customer. With Soundhound, you’re getting boomer-tech that’s trying to go head to head with some the best funded, most talented competitors on the planet. https://preview.redd.it/ezd0vkee8v5e1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=85fee8310201e48ade789c1225c5e79c7f23aa58
Quantum Computing Inc is going to crash	Context: Quantum computing is having its moment. It’s risky, but could massively disrupt industries in areas like computing, finance and cyber security. But stock market bubbles are forming. Quantum computing is probably the most technically difficult industry for analysts to assess. Few people are equipped with an adequate understanding of quantum technologies, which is leading to massive mispricing. Quantum Computing Inc is junk Iceberg Research’s recent short report covers some of them. They note that the firm has run from one fad to another (chips, ai, computing) and failed at each. They list several misleading claims that they’ve made and withdrawn. The report is damning and raises serious questions about the future of the company, I encourage you all to read it. However Iceberg does not go far enough. https://iceberg-research.com/2024/11/27/quantum-computing-inc-the-phantom-chip-foundry/ They lack talent. Successful quantum innovations requires strong technical knowledge that you really can only come by in either leading universities or megacap firms like google. I went through the Linkedin profiles of each of their employees and compared them with their small cap competitors. I tallied up the share of employees that went to an Edu Rank top-100 world universities for Quantum Physics (which is a very broad net), they rank incredibly poorly among it’s peers - less than a fifth of employees (see picture)*. This is robust to different ranking metrics. Counting only Ivy leagues they come out much worse. But look, not all employees are on linkedin. And this is the next big underdog? No. A large share of their “talent” comes from the Steven’s Institute of Technology, an unremarkable university in New Jersey (ranked 150+ for Quantum Physics depending on list) The company’s Chief Quantum Officer is Yuping Huang. On first glance he appears to have a prolific publishing history; however, most papers receive low citations and/or he is third, fourth or fifth author. Huang was previously sued by shareholders for breaching fiduciary duties when he merged his previous company with Quantum Computing Inc. Notably he is both a director and employee, which is a big corporate governance redflag (reminds me of Cassava Sciences). There is only one independent director with a background in Quantum Physics to provide checks and balance on Huang — Dr Javad Shabani. He is not up to the task. His publishing history is mediocre. Looking deeper, the Chief Technology Officer Yong Meng Sua, has an even more mediocre publishing history. And has only risen to an Assistant Professor role at Steven’s. He spends much of his time discussing esoteric computing questions tangential to his work (i.e. the NP=P problem, see their LinkedIn posts) And finally the Director of the Company’s chip foundry (Iceberg has raised significant questions about the foundry). Dr Milan Begliarbekov after finishing high school enrolled in a bachelor’s degree in English literature at Steven’s, graduated, then immediately enrolled in a physics Phd at Steven’s. Either he is a savant polymath who is able to pick up grad school physics level math, or a Phd from Steven’s is worthless. His publishing career is very mediocre. These scientists will not crack the major problems stopping widespread commercialization of Quantum tech. Simply compare their publishing records to the founder at Ion-Q (Peter Chapman) or leading quantum scientists at Google, alongside the significant and verifiable technological advancements these companies have made. Another clue that something is amiss is headcount. Rigetti has three fold the number of employees. D-Wave six fold. All have similar market cap. What’s driving value? We’ve established that it’s not human capital. Iceberg’s research reveals it’s not intellectual property or physical capital either. So why has it done so well? Regarded retail investors. Only 3.3% of Quantum Computing Inc is held by institutional investors (and falling). Compared with ~40% for IONQ. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/qubt/institutional-holdings The lack of institutional investment while institutional investors are simultaneously clamouring to load up on quantum stocks is a massive red flag. In fact no Wall Street analysts track them. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/quantum-computing-qubt-stock-skyrockets-short-sellers-are-lurking So what happens next? The 800% rise in one month is going to attract short selling interest as people realise it’s junk. The stock will fall back below $1. Risk: If you want to short/buy puts, You can rest assured that the company is not going to suddenly become profitable. The main risk comes from why they’ve done so well, despite having little revenue, expertise, or innovation to show for it. They’re literally called Quantum Computing Incorporated. If you’re a full regard wanting to invest in Quantum computing are you going to invest in IonQ (what?), Rigetti (spaghetti company?) or a company conveniently called Quantum Computing? It’s a regard trap. It’s like being interested in electric cars and passing on Tesla because you wanted to invest in a stock called Electric Car Co. My positions 1000 put contracts to sell @$4.50, cost average = 0.11, expiring Dec 20. If this doesn’t work I’m going to buy puts again and again. This company sucks.
$GOOG the BFTG	Regards, grab your tendies and gather around the fire because I’m going to tell you all about $GOOG (aka Alphabet) the BFTG (Big Fucking ~~Tech~~ Tendie Giant). I’ll break it down for you because I know you polish that 🧠 real nice so I can’t expect a single wrinkle. 1. Criminally Low P/E Ratio While all your other tech darlings are flexing P/E ratios like a hooker in heat, $GOOGL is at 23.4 P/E ratio. For reference: * $SPX: >27 P/E (yes, the S&P500) * $MSFT: >36 P/E * $AAPL: >39 P/E * $NVDA: >56 P/E * $AMZN: >47 P/E * $TSLA: >106 P/E (Fuck you, for the window lickers in the back) Remember a “good” P/E ratio is traditionally around 20-25. If you don’t understand then read a fucking book. 2. AI Incumming Sure, everyone’s talking about OpenAI and ChatGPT, but who’s making real money here? Google owns 90%+ of search traffic (when did you ever hear “yahoo it” or “ask duck duck go”?) and monetizes it like a legal cartel. Once Gemini (+Legacy Bard) gets some improvements and a little lipstick even MORE money. Oh, and don’t forget Google Cloud, which grew revenues 30% YoY last quarter. 3. Santa Rally - Ho Ho Hold Onto Your Bollocks 🎅 Historically, December is green season for big-cap tech. Funds rebalance, and retail apes are YOLOing. The Santa Rally isn’t just a meme; it’s a statistical goldmine. With $GOOG’s recent earnings beat ($28.5B in 3 months), the market’s about to price this in as snow starts falling. 4. Big Tech = Safe Haven Recession? Inflation? Global chaos? Who cares. Big Tech don’t give a FUCK. Ad spending may wobble, but companies will NEVER stop buying Google ads. 5. Buybacks on Steroids $GOOGL has a $70 BILLION buyback program active, the best part? They’re buying low and will push us even higher. TL;DR: Google Is The Perfect Combo of Value & Growth. Positions so I can one day buy a house: At time of post: $2810 (+$460 16.4% unrealised) Closed * GOOG $6.99 [180 MAR25 Call](https://imgur.com/a/9hKeW9G) Closed $2015 +187.5% * GOOG $3.25 [180 DEC24 Call](https://imgur.com/a/3zFEguC) CLOSED $1695 +421.5% * GOOG $1.62 [185 DEC24 Call](https://imgur.com/a/3zFEguC) CLOSED $475 +193% Total Realised: $4185 (+77.7%) Still Open * GOOG $9.45 [175 APR25 Call](https://imgur.com/a/v1GWVvL) * GOOG $1.51 [195/210 FEB25 Call Spread](https://imgur.com/a/YRFMYHT) * GOOG $1.43 210/220 [JUN25 Call Spread](https://imgur.com/a/wFnTZ1l) ROLLED short leg 220>235 going deeper * TSLA $3.75 [260 FEB25 Put (Fk U)](https://imgur.com/a/Hs1A7OR) ROLLED FEB260>MAR275 for -$330 going deeper New * GOOG $6.99 200 JAN25 CALL * GOOG $2.40 210/240 JAN25 Call debit Spread * GOOG $1.36x3 200/207.5 27DEC24 Closed 1 for $2.58 * TSLA $7.33 275/340 FEB25 Debit Put Spread 🐻 * TQQQ $2.23 75/85 Debit Put Spread 🐻 * NVDA $2.96 140/152.5 Debit Call Spread * NVDA $0.43x3 150/155 JAN25 Debit Call Spread * ADBE $2.46 505 Jan25 Not financial advice. YOLO as your own risk. I’ll be adding more in two weeks having sold ESPP shares to raise more fire power. How the fuck do I add a ban-bet? If I’m going to do this properly I might as well add some sauce. SEE YOU AT THE TOP! 🚀 Edits: Added positions and some grammar tweaks. +People got upset that I said “Bard”, fine I added Gemini you star sign loving fucks! Edit2: Updated Positions 10DEC Edit3: Updated Positions 11DEC Edit4: Updates Positions 12DEC Edit5: Updates 13DEC Edit6: Updates 16DEC
DD Part 2: $RBRK, Rubrik	DD Part 2. Rubrik's BackUp Boogaloo DD Part 1 -->[ here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h7s0om/rbrk_rubrik/). What is Rubrik ? * Rubrik is a backup & recovery provider that sits on top of a company’s cloud infrastructure. What is an example of Backup & Recovery I can maybe understand? * You drop your phone under a tire because you were to busy while parking, leading to a smashing of both it and the SIM card. The only fix is you buy a new phone, login with your iCloud email, and everything is restored from the cloud. * Rubrik does the above and sells at-cost servers from partners like Dell, HPE, SMCI, etc. They protect data in places like AWS , Azure, and GCP. * People pay whatever when they have no phone or car. Same here. Why am I following up? * Feedback that Part 1 should have been posted weeks ago. * NEW DD. * 2024 Tech IPO Comparable ^(Reddit) * Six Analyst Rating Updates during Friday Frenzy ^(Barclays is of particular interest) * Give some credit where it's due: * u/Appropriate-Grisham's comments calling the [ 20% jump](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h2q6pw/comment/m0lty1r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) & [ his quick DD from last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h2q6pw/comment/lzm990m/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button). He called it first last week. * u/Smurfsville's [YOLO'ing half his $70k portfolio in RBRK giving an international footprint](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h8b4jr/rbrk_yolo/). * u/CorrectYesterday4480's [for offering to kiss me](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h7s0om/comment/m0psve5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) * It's a great company. Have you sold any stock or options? * [No. This is a YOLO.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h7e91h/rbrk_yolo/) Why did you not sell the ATH when it was $72.66 11:45AM EST on Friday 12/5/2024? Are you fucking stupid? https://preview.redd.it/bm4gi2ksyj5e1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d23af31acbc43989fcad8811ae28a924e157c61 Can you tell me the exact limit price, exact strike price, and exact time & date to buy RBRK? When should I buy and sell options? What about stock? * Unfortunately no. This is a casino. I will show you my positions, gains, and losses for better or worse. That's the point of the DD, it's historical. What did your options look like by end of Friday? [I entered into three new positions. Yes they are the red ones. ](https://preview.redd.it/xplss7gyyj5e1.png?width=1304&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ae1e679daf72e01414338f5ebc80b32b85f8642) [I did the math for you. ](https://preview.redd.it/gc4uoa0wok5e1.png?width=2022&format=png&auto=webp&s=853a00702ad8a3c332d552026b187de9106102da) Update: What do you stock positions look like? [Bought since mid November.](https://preview.redd.it/oiobs0ssin5e1.png?width=1144&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5c0ea0c2c6ecd9cd89b85c8b997498312f6a078) New DD 2024 Tech IPO Comparable ($RDDT, Reddit) * Since the AI hype peaking in 2021 and the rise of interest rates IPOs across the board have been down. Just look at the historicals it's a bloodbath. It's very, very hard to IPO in 2024. ( [Source: September 9th, 2024 University of Florida Study on IPOs from 1980-2023](https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/IPO-Statistics.pdf)) [121 Tech IPOs in 2021. 6 Tech IPOs in 2022. 9 Tech IPOs in 2023.](https://preview.redd.it/k68f5u1f8k5e1.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=29f8828e3a4bf10b69d10d169c853bf6bb34ac0d) State of IPOS in 2024 ( [Source : All 2024 IPOs Stockanalysis.com](https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/2024/) ) * I tried to be as broad as possible in scope, but it seems like the only tech IPOs with $20+ IPO Prices were RDDT, RBRK, INGM, OS, and WR in 2024. This is a very difficult and hard market to have an IPO in. * [Stripe is even holding off.](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/stripe-shows-signs-of-ipo-despite-co-founder-comments/727877/) * [June 2024 Article on Slow IPO Market ](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/28/tech-founders-are-shunning-ipos-after-extended-market-lull-techstars.html) [It's looking rough but see kissing cousins with $RDDT at $34 and $RBRK at $32. ](https://preview.redd.it/8ul7h4kfak5e1.png?width=1494&format=png&auto=webp&s=91d46e28c2bc38af981e1b1036436a4e358ef52e) Where do I see similarities? * Criticisms of Profitability & the Quarterly Improvement by Both. \|Company\|Q1 2024 (The IPO)\|Q2 2024 (First Quarterly)\|Q3 2024 (Last Quarterly before EOY)\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|Rubrik $RBRK\|\-1.58 EPS\|\- 0.40 EPS\|\- 0.21 EPS\| \|Reddit $RDDT\|\-8.19 EPS\|\-0.06 EPS\|0.16 EPS\| * Both have 10+ Year Lifespans without an IPO building large userbases, industry prestige aka getting taken seriously. * IPO'ed within a month of one another. (See dates above in IPO chart) * Both seem to be singing the exact same song [How it feels. ](https://preview.redd.it/giyeo2w43k5e1.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=8704b66f7b378968caef057acd8daa0a52677d29) [My personal history with $RDDT. See how it ended right after Q3 earnings? See all the buys and sells. My exit was $115 with what I thought was a juicy call and a hard dip coming. ](https://preview.redd.it/f6d5da6e3k5e1.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fd54dcabf249fd41a10c0b46aff442ab0c5aaa1) Nine New Analyst "Raise" Ratings during Friday Frenzy * Barclays was of particular interest in the first DD due to them being first in line for QA on the Q3 Earnings and seemingly waiting until the dust settled to rate RBRK. [All raises. All above $70. All during the chaos of Friday. ](https://preview.redd.it/gbyrk4kkik5e1.png?width=1810&format=png&auto=webp&s=f46984c2108d6da283de9b84d1b8a35688e57e64) I'm holding. Mid $100s by July 2025 EDIT: Adding this table and screenshot for the "Posting DD up 50%. Hopium Bagholder." It's a YOLO. If I was worried about a bag I'd have posted this DD in August when I was buying shares but sold them to make an AMZN options play. I felt guilty about not posting months ago. \|Ipo Date\|Symbol\|Company Name\|IPO Price\|Current\|Return\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|2024-03-21\|RDDT\|Reddt\|$34\|$162.766\|378.71%\| \|2024-04-25\|RBRK\|Rubrik\|$32\|$64.63\|101.97%\| https://preview.redd.it/m9e3b6jonn5e1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0dfdc456fa59069f8c3a02d1e9182d8e445574b [10 Month Option hold on $PLTR. This is called having BALLS OF STEEL.](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h8eq7i/952_to_20k_pltr/) https://preview.redd.it/9dsycxmmpn5e1.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=38ce0ada41eb520cf428db2d8fb4b65ded3945cd
Adobe Earnings Play	everything is in the chart + bullish macd crossover in the daily timeframe = balls deep in calls
SMCI loose analysis and opportunity simmering	SMCI golden age and beautiful chart. After hours Friday SMCI jumped almost 9 percent! Makes perfect sense that investors are flooding back into this stock! It has been so beaten down over the last six months by bad press and fears of fraud. Those fears have been quelled by a new CFO and auditing team. We just saw in the last month of 72% rally and there is still plenty of room to run on Monday it will open up around $48, the last critical level we saw was $49. Also, it looks like a somewhat sloppy cup and handle pattern is forming. My half baked technical analysis is. We will see a minor pull back around $50 to finish the pattern, then it will launch back up to the next critical level around $60 a share. Fundamentally speaking, they have been showing plenty of growth and demand for their products which mainly consists of hardware to House semiconductors, especially their trademark marked water cooled rack, which directly addresses a huge issue that centers are facing as computing power gets to Skynet levels. Their price to earnings ratio is a modest 21.9, the earnings per share is a humble 2, the ps ratio is 1.5 which is the lowest among its competitors. In fact all of its metrics or lowest amongst its competitors except for the EPS for AMD, which is 1.1. There will be much to see within the next quarterly earnings report and how they managed to address their auditing issues and reporting issues. But I think this company still has room to run and definitely has legs. I have 200 shares with plans to buy much more. I was going to buy on the next red day, expecting it to be Monday, but I digress. Next pull back I’m buying calls with a strike price of about $49-$55 exp in March. Even considering a YOLO. God Speed to the investors and traders.
My thesis on INTC going into 2025	I am going to add my technological and geopolitical fundamentals here, because I think these are going to be important factors heading into 2025. Disclaimer: I own 575 shares of Intel at an average PpS of $29.30 I think most analysts are forgetting that the next president is the same guy who is trying to block the acquisition of US steel by Nippon steel at all costs, regardless if it makes financial sense or not because he wants to retain as much American Manufacturing as possible and wants it to succeed. Most of the "AI revolution" has happened over the past 4 years where the administration had no problem letting foreign chip manufacturing take the lead. Intel is competing with TSMC, and TSMC receives massive subsidies and discounts from the Taiwanese government which dwarf the 7.9B (which was even reduced) from the US government. On top of that, the US government is also giving slightly less in subsidies, 6.6B, to TSMC to build in the US. So really, the current administration is not giving Intel an advantage over TSMC. The most effective thing that they could do is levy tariffs against Taiwan, which the next president has gone on record stating he wishes to do, instead of subsidies. This would increase demand for American chip manufacturing; while TSMC can manufacture in the US, CoWoS packaging is done outside of the US, in either Malaysia or Taiwan, and would cause the product to be subject to tariffs. In the chip design space, Intel is hopelessly behind on GPUs compared to Nvidia, and now Apple, Amazon, OpenAI and others are designing their own chips and using TSMC for manufacture. Intel still dominates the CPU space, but your average datacenter rack might have 10/20+ GPUs for each CPU. AMD is also a viable alternative to Intel for CPUs, and as such takes about 25% of the market. Intel's only way to compete in the GPU space is in the cost performance market, which mainly targets budget gaming, crypto mining, and cheap datacenter. The newest release of the "Battlemage" B580 is expected to compete with Nvidia's 4060 at the under $300 MSRP market, which are lofty goals. Nvidia and AMD still have offerings in these spaces but they are not lucrative ones. So Intel is basically competing to be a 3rd rate designer in the US, while they still have the CPU lead it matters a lot less for the lucrative markets right now. It's clear that on the design front, Intel is not going to receive much help to be successful. While this is their core business and majority of revenue, it is a business they are falling behind substantially compared to others. Design demand is GPUs and they are late to this party. Revenue for products is expected to stagnate or decline unless they have a competitive GPU offering. However, the US needs to have a domestic cutting edge chip manufacturing supply chain. It has expressed as much as a result of the 2022 supply chain shortage when we realized that letting TSMC manufacture 90% of the world's sub 5nm chips was a bad idea. That was the motivation behind passing the CHIPS act; Pat Gelsinger was instrumental in advising the current administration for this. The method for doing so has left a lot to be desired; Pat himself even expressed as much given the delay in fund disbursement, which in all fairness was only accelerated as a result of the election result and comments from republicans that they wanted to repeal the act. TSMC is not allowed to have the latest node fabricated in the US by law of the Taiwanese government. This is so that the country keeps its "Silicon Shield", the dependence globally to have manufacturing be done there which keeps Taiwan protected from China. But Intel has no such limitation. And TSMC is not able to fufill 100% of the orders for its customers; it is aggressively building more fabs to keep up with the ever increasing demand of AI. This demand exists for Intel to take part of. So, Intel in the next administration will have a tremendous amount of support for its Foundry, not Products, side of the business. This leaves Intel with a potential alternative to many of the scenarios analysts predict: It could solely dedicate to Foundry and sell off its Products division, most likely to AMD which shares the x86 architecture already and is solely focused on design. This would allow Intel to become a Foundry for external customers without having a conflict of interest, which I suspect is keeping them from customers. The CHIPS act stipulates that Intel has to retain a majority stake of Foundry but NOT Products, so this does not prevent Intel from dedicating itself to Foundry, which is what the US wants. I think Pat was waiting for the right climate to do this and it is coming soon. It is sad he did not stay long enough to see it happen. If Intel received the same amount of support from the US government that the Taiwanese government gave to TSMC, and was able to win external customers as a result of Tariffs, it could become the US TSMC. Much of this hinges on the 18A and later 14A nodes which are competitive with TSMC 2nm, which is the current cutting edge. But I think this is the desire of Intel and the next administration, and so they will work towards this goal. To diminish foundry would be a slow death for Intel. That is why I am still looking forward to Intel in 2025. If you got this far, thank you for reading. EDIT: Now that I think about it, it is also entirely possible for Qualcomm to buy Intel's Products division. I think they expressed as much earlier this year, but being they are primarily ARM I am not sure if it would be a good fit.
CVNA puts for next week	Alright regards, let me preface this by saying NO ONE SHOULD DO THIS. This is a dumb idea, and I will likely lose. I bought puts on CVNA at close on Friday. If you want to see my past plays, check my profile. I called the MRNA bounce, the NVDA sell off, the NKE bounce, but the UPST one was a bit off(still think it’ll happen). Why would i do something so dumb? Because I like spotting trend reversals as they’re happening. On the daily chart, you can clearly see the trend line break today. The MACD is turning over, the RSI is dropping even though we’re still near the short term top, and that is a very convincing red candle on the daily. On the 30 minute, you can see the aggressive break more clearly, but more importantly to me is the fact that the 50 day and 100 day EMA’s have crossed to the downside for the first time since August 30. That is fucking crazy that it took that long for that to happen. IMO that is a very bearish signal that I am not going to ignore. I’m not going to go into CVNA’s financials or practices or the fact that they inflate their GPPU. There are SO many DD’s about how it’s overvalued and a scam company. Everyone knows that, but it just continues its stupid melt up. That is, until next week. I’m hoping other traders see this and decide to start selling/shorting this bitch into oblivion. They probably won’t tho and my contracts will expire worthless, but we’ll see. One thing to note; CVNA’s delinquencies are at 12.6% and rising. Their partner, Ally financial, warn in September that their delinquencies on auto loans was 20 bps higher than expected. That’s significant. Ally’s stock took a hit for that but CVNA didn’t because CVNA is not on the hook for the trash loans they sell to Ally. However, Ally can increase their underwriting standards and make it harder for CVNA to give loans to every regard with a pulse. Honestly this smells a lot like mortgages in 2008. Eventually this will blow up, it’s just a matter of when. And I’m not saying it’ll blow up this week. I just like the technical setup. In closing, this is stupid and no one should do this. But I like a challenge, and I like being right. I only have 3 $240 puts so far, I may get more Monday. It’s not a big bet at all, but i want some skin in the game so I can say I’m right if it plays out how I think it will. Not financial advice, and do not tail me unless you’re ok with losing what you put in.
Help Analyzing The ODP Corporation	Finding value in this market seems near impossible. But, I think I may have found a cigar butt — Office Depot. Here’s my back of the envelope math that I’m hoping y’all can help fill out a little more. This is just a primer to get the convo flowing. Please keep it civil, factual, and support assertions with numbers/facts. Please. In 2015 staples tried to purchased Office Depot for $6.3b, but the deal was killed by the FTC. They tried again in 2021 offering $2.1b. This got me wondering, why? Where’s the value? Well, there may be a little. ODP is comprised of Four business units: 1) ODP Business Solutions, LLC (B2B); 2) Office Depot, LLC (retail); 3) Veyer, LLC (logistics); and 4) Varis, Inc. (digital procurement). The latter 2 are interesting and showed decent growth: Veyer (25%) and Varis (14%). ODP “sold” most of Varis but still owns about 20%. They actually paid the buyer to take it off their hands (this plays a small role in my broader thesis of why ODP NEEDS to sell, the leadership is totally incompetent). The company is shrinking, and rapidly. But they have $181mm in cash. Net income of $139mm. Receivables are $487mm. Inventory $765mm. They own real estate that’s worth about $86mm (but hard to confirm). $1.04B in debt. Total liabilities of 2.785B. Current market cap is $779mm. Removing debt from the equation, conservatively I put the value around $1.1b. That’s a 41% delta/upside. But, factoring in debt, it’s a different picture (obviously). They’ve manage to decrease their interest expense every year, going from $89mm in 2019 to $20mm in 2023. They recently restructured their revolver and the new maturity date is 2029, so they have time. There’s also a $250mm accordion allowing them to increase the loan from $800mm to $1.05b. The logistics component (veyer) seems interesting and promising but it sounds like they’re looking may be unhappy with Norman’s there as well — again just really poor management. EBITDA: $417mm Adjusted: $131mm Thoughts?
Nasdaq 100 change happening any day now - trigger for $PLTR and $MSTR	Tell me if I'm wrong - but any day now, maybe even TONIGHT after market close - Nasdaq will announce the annual changes to the Nasdaq 100 index. Last year it happened Friday the 8th of December - coming into effect Monday 18/12. Source: [https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/annual-changes-to-the-nasdaq-100-indexr-2023-12-08](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/annual-changes-to-the-nasdaq-100-indexr-2023-12-08) Palantir was last time I checked the 18th biggest company on Nasdaq after the list change a few weeks ago. Should be the same for Microstrategy - nr 22 or something. Some of it is likely priced in but since QQQ following ETFs etc cannot buy until the actual date, should be a strong trigger for both companies when they need to scoop up shares. What do you think?
Eli Lilly (LLY): Dominating the Obesity Market with Innovation and Expansion	About LLY Eli Lilly and Company, founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, develops and markets pharmaceuticals globally. Key products include diabetes treatments (e.g., Humalog, Jardiance, Trulicity), obesity drugs (e.g., Zepbound), oncology medications (e.g., Verzenio, Alimta), and therapies for autoimmune and neurological conditions (e.g., Olumiant, Taltz, Emgality). The company also offers Cialis for erectile dysfunction and Forteo for osteoporosis. Lilly operates the Lilly Seaport Innovation Center focused on RNA/DNA-based therapies and collaborates with various biotech firms. Strong Market Position and Research Successes Recent comparative study results have shown that Zepbound outperforms its competitor Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, achieving a 20.2% weight loss over 72 weeks, compared to Wegovy’s 13.7%. These findings further strengthen Eli Lilly's competitive position in the obesity treatment market, where it's facing tough competition from Novo Nordisk. The company’s expanded production capacity, including resolving the tirzepatide shortage, puts it in a great position to speed up its market share growth. Growth Strategy and Production Expansion Lilly continues to heavily invest in boosting its production capacity, committing an additional $2 billion to its Lilly Medicine Foundry project, increasing its earlier investment of $4.5 billion. The company’s focus on penetrating the U.S. market, introducing single-dose vials, and strategically expanding its production capabilities highlights its commitment to meeting the rapidly growing demand for GLP-1 products. Solving the tirzepatide availability issue also reduces competition from compounded drugs. Distribution Channels and Innovations Lilly has a strong drug distribution network in the obesity and diabetes treatment space, with promising candidates like retatrutide (24% weight loss in 48 weeks) and orforglipron (nearly 10% weight loss in 36 weeks). These next-gen products could help Lilly maintain its leadership position as the GLP-1 market grows and new competitors enter the scene. This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CrowdStrike Helps Secure the End-to-End AI Ecosystem Built on AWS	See how many buzzwords are in that title? This thing is going to the moon regardless of what anyone thinks lol
$RBRK , Rubrik	$RBRK , Rubrik DD (Position Included) [My YOLO post](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h7e91h/rbrk_yolo/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) <--- from earlier today. My Positions ($23k) \~$14,000 Stock and \~$9,000 in Initial Options purchased over past two weeks. After moving money to and from accounts. https://preview.redd.it/n1f7dt72f55e1.jpg?width=411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18565b855e2f592afb91653cdb178e947c9b13c2 https://preview.redd.it/phaewsplf55e1.jpg?width=1626&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23febee6e63cf0e6cc8928cb48b41438f440d4a5 Why write this? * I feel like we need a solid fucking company. * I get too scared to buy aviation, nuclear, and crypto stocks. * They weren’t listed on WSB’s Earnings board. * I thought more people would like the YOLO. * They POSSIBLY gave me a backpack when I was MAYBE working with them eight years ago. [Rubrik Backpack](https://preview.redd.it/aq0rogvya55e1.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=7dc549da0311f723117c74e29efa2136085b9e84) DD Research What is Rubrik ? * Rubrik is a backup & recovery provider that sits on top of a company’s cloud infrastructure. What is an example of Backup & Recovery I can maybe understand? * You drop your phone under a tire because you were to busy while parking, leading to a smashing of both it and the SIM card. The only fix is you buy a new phone, login with your iCloud email, and everything is restored from the cloud. * Rubrik does the above and sells at-cost servers from partners like Dell, HPE, SMCI, etc. They protect data in places like AWS , Azure, and GCP. * People pay whatever when they have no phone or car. Same here. How are you qualified? * I worked at a research company for five years partnering with SaaS vendors $5M-$250M, for two of those years I CAN NEITHER CONFIRM NOR DENY they may have been a client. * I transitioned to Software Engineering three years ago from Tech Sales. I have tracked them and understand both the sales pitch and technology pitch. * I saw them masterfully navigate researchers, which they still do, and become the golden child. Billions of dollars get validated by researchers.... it's importants. * [(Updated) They Poached the Magic in 2018](https://www.theregister.com/2018/05/01/rubrik_gartner_hires/). One is doable but not three of them it delayed the research paper a year that doesn’t happen unless a research analyst dies. * [(Updated) Because of 2018 poaching the late Fall report never got published (major delay), The 2019 Report Was Fought Back By Rubrik for Flawed Data](https://www.crn.com/news/storage/rubrik-ceo-gartner-data-center-magic-quadrant-seriously-flawed) . I've never seen a CEO do this without blowback Bipul again with a killer move. * TL:DR; They were making moves YEARS ago. See article excerpt below. [This is pretty rare, vendors complain but not publishing a document read by 4k+ CIO controlling the flow of billions of dollars in a sector. It's just insane. There's a lot of big names backing them. ](https://preview.redd.it/x3hcumds365e1.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f1e26b7a5f66134efaf4447b77fa18f020f0837) Who’s in the market? Competitors? https://preview.redd.it/qq3hhafdg55e1.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=20d4d8a57db7467d15ffd2abaa24459d6ac8d60c * Their only publicly traded competitor is Commvault which is around $170 and dropping. * Veeam and Cohesity are private firms with very different architectures, support qualities, and applications. Rubrik is the only one fully doing what it does. They are considered the “Lexus” How are they different? * Rubrik views backup and recovery very differently from legacy vendors. They built their architecture based on expecting to get hacked (Backup & Recovery) vs. trying to prevent a hack (Incident Response). It's never been done "their way" before. * Rubrik creates an air gapped layer on top of databases that - even if a hacker gets in they’re quarantined and the user can restore the system cutting them off. Thus less downtime, less support costs, payroll, legal fees, etc. * They are very partner friendly with Mandiant, Crowdstrike, and Zscaler at least in the cutthroat cyber industry. * Rubrik’s leadership , in particular the CEO Bipul Sinha, are not run of the mill. Bipul is personally a very kind, measured, and calculated leader, I’ve met him before. He’s a lovely man but a killer. He’s an engineer with a sales streak like Elon. Bipul has Nutanix and Bromium under his belt. Google Him. He essentially came out of retirement for this company from a cushy ass VC job. * They know how to pitch investors, analysts, sales people, clients, basically everyone. They’re as buttoned up as you get and they come to impress. They earned their street cred 100%. * They have consistently ranked as #1 according to Gartner in the Magic Quadrant. Beating out companies with very, very large balance sheets that don't have the balls to IPO in 2024. Why the sudden pop? (Things I thought were important) * Analysts needed another leap to profitability due to the only available historicals being from the April 2024 IPO and September Q2 earnings. This gave them pause on profitability as Rubrik as high operating margin. * They raised 2025 Guidance. Indicated profitability by end of next year on this Q3 Earnings. * Things I Heard on their Q3 Earnings today: * They mentioned a Fortune 50 Healthcare company selecting them in a competitive win. UnitedHealthcare was hacked in February and had offline billing systems for like 20 days. I’m thinking they signed UNH, that’s a big cookie boys. It’s super fucking hard to rip and replace a legacy vendor. * They passed $1B in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR). This is a big metric. I heard both the Goldman Sachs and Barclays analysts say “Congrats” they seemed to be teeing up easier questions. * [Everyone and their mother in Cybersecurity has heard of Rubrik. They got the same award as Google, Facebook, and others a month ago for Entrepreneurship](https://www.rubrik.com/company/newsroom/press-releases/24/rubrik-named-the-2024-entrepreneurial-company-of-the-year-by-the-harvard-business-school-hbs-association-of-northern-california) * [This guy’s comment from 6 days ago. ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1h2q6pw/comment/lzm990m/) * [Yesterday, December 4th. Curious move by their competitor, Veeam, to announce $2B of funding, he must have known Rubrik was beating their ass in deals and wanted to jolt Rubrik's earnings calls or they are in financial trouble.](https://www.crn.com/news/storage/2024/veeam-ceo-on-latest-2b-funding-round-cohesity-veritas-merger-rubrik-ipo-and-data-resilience) Why did the stock not move from April to September 2024? (Timeline Below...) * April 24th 2024 IPO Financials * Rubrik reveals a very high operating margin due to sales and marketing investments aka ripping out Zscaler’s sales team doing the “Salesforce” push. Blitzkreg the market. * I believe they started planning ripping Zscaler in October 2023 , it takes time to ramp up. They probably got all big sales hires in by March with a six month ramp up take lands sales quotes around September when the stock crept up( * [Sniping Zscaler Executives and Top Earners in October 2023. They had to give a fuck ton of stock to pry these boys away. ](https://channeleye.co.uk/rubrik-hires-another-zscaler/) * [EDIT: (Updated with New Video) This lead to analyst skepticism about pricing controls. ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzEhqtSrVUE) * Septemeber 9th 2024 Q2 Earnings Financials * Earnings were month after the late July 2024 Crowdstrike hack, I do not think Rubrik was able to accelerate deal velocity to report ARR high enough to relieve market analysts and critics of the operating margin. They were asked about “deal velocity” by analysts today and it seems like the markets are pleased. * [Bloomberg video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGvI0QbzzkY) from post-earnings is killer and a good recap of market sentiment. * [Rubrik Search Trends Peaked In April Coinciding With the Major UNH Hack; however, they droped off after the huge spike.](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=rubrik&hl=en) * I think analysts expected a quicker deal cycle around the UNH hack, 4 months/120 days is a very fast enterprise sales cycle. Most large sales deals can take 6-12 months if not longer. * October 2024: * I believe deal velocity picked up from the UNH hack and even with low search results, the three week hack fallout was enough to start sales cycles. Then from the Crowdstrike fallout, even as a partner, highlighted the need to immediately solve it as publicly traded companies were literally offline, no one working. * Remember 60-120 days is a very fast sales cycle on any software sale. I think this is where we started heating up here as this is three months out from the hack. * Today on earnings analysts seemed eager to ask about profitability as the CFO and CEO were comfortable to voice the 2026 is the year. Look there's alot of tech companies with -40 EPS floating around. It's not 2013-2018 you can't float on negative earnings and millions of users. <--- the market is speaking, you have to make money as a tech company. * November 2024: * Rising cybersecurity risk from election, TikTok hack, etc. Fidelity even paused my money for four weeks in a CMA because they had security issues with fraud. * Stock was ticking up. * December 4th, 2024 (Yesterday): * Veeam $2B announcement mentioned earlier. * Volume doubles to nearly 2M. It was 700k in July 2024. It's 4M Today. Nuts. Where will it go? * It seem comparable to Zscaler and Commvault in valuation. I'm long on it and believe it'll push past $100 by July 2025.
DD: Long China ETFs (YINN, CHAU) + PDD Calls – Stimulus Incoming 🚀🚀	TL;DR: China is expected to announce significant economic stimulus measures during the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11-12, 2024. This anticipation has led to substantial call option activity in Chinese leveraged ETFs YINN and CHAU. I'm bullish on these ETFs and PDD calls, aiming to capitalize on the potential market surge. 🐉 The Setup: 1. Stimulus Anticipation: The Chinese government is poised to unveil major economic stimulus initiatives during the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, such announcements have positively impacted Chinese markets. 2. Unusual Options Activity: * YINN: Over 98,000 call options with a $27 strike price expiring in January 2026 were traded recently, with an additional 38,000 calls traded shortly after. [GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2620900/unusual-surge-in-call-options-for-chinese-etfs-chau-and-yinn?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * CHAU: More than 200,000 call options, allowing the purchase of 20 million shares at $15 each by mid-May next year, totaling $55 million, have been bought. This is notable given CHAU's usual low options trading volume. [GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2620900/unusual-surge-in-call-options-for-chinese-etfs-chau-and-yinn?utm_source=chatgpt.com) The Technicals: * YINN: Currently trading near $28.12. A breakout above $30 could target $35+. * CHAU: Trading around $15.31. Surpassing $16 could lead to $18+. * PDD: With support around $95, options strategies targeting $110-$120 strikes could be profitable. Catalyst Timeline: 1. December 11-12: Expected stimulus announcement during the Central Economic Work Conference. 2. Improving U.S.-China Relations: Recent diplomatic engagements have eased tensions, potentially benefiting Chinese equities. Risks: * Underwhelming Stimulus: If the announced measures fall short of expectations, markets may react negatively. * Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing issues, such as potential U.S. regulatory changes affecting Chinese companies, could impact stock performance. * Market Volatility: Leveraged ETFs like YINN and CHAU can experience significant price swings. My Position: * YINN Calls: Jan 17th 30 strike at $2.45 * PDD Calls: Jan 17th $120 strike at $1.0 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Sources: * [Unusual options activity in Chinese ETFs (YINN & CHAU) - GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2620900/unusual-surge-in-call-options-for-chinese-etfs-chau-and-yinn) * Pinduoduo stock price target forecast - Stock Analysis * Strong financials and earnings growth for PDD - Financial Times * Geopolitical risks affecting Chinese companies - Wired
Dicky PDD DD	PDD DD This is a sure thing [Dumped my entire TFSA into PDD yesterday](https://i.imgur.com/ileUaxN.png) As a guy in his 20s, this TFSA is (basically) all I got. Spent years building this account. I tossed everything in there. ###DD Am pure-blooded Chinese. Grew up in canada. Moved back to China last year. Many of you ass clowns subscribe to the concept that Chinese have small dicks. Honestly that’s cool, but if you subscribe to that, then you must also subscribe to the fact that chinese have high IQs PDD has about 14k employees. It is amongst the elite of the elite companies to work at, especially for fresh chinese college grads. China has 1.4 billion people. Imagine a high IQ country of 1.4 billion people, now imagine 14k of the highest IQ people out of those 1.4 billion high IQ people working at a single company, and you got PDD. ###China’s 996 work culture 996 means 9am - 9pm, 6 days a week. Basically a 70-hour work week. It’s extremely toxic, but undoubtedly the most competitive work model in the world. Imagine a company of people with average IQ of 135, all working 70 hours a week. Imagine the competitiveness of such an organization. Temu’s tremendous growth is no surprise. Temu is the fastest growth e-commerce marketplace for a good fucking reason. Like I mentioned, it’s built by an organization with an average IQ of 135, with basically everyone no life working 70 hour weeks. ###Personal experience: - So far in China I dated 2 girls working from PDD. One worked in HR and one worked in product. They were horribly unattractive. Why? They dunno how to use makeup, they dunno how to dress. They only know how to work. The HR girl especially, told me just how many interviews they’re doing. They’re growing FAST. Their work pace is literally incomprehensible for clueless westerners. I’d wager most US tech workers would probably have a mental breakdown if they work 1 month at PDD, because they simply can’t handle its pace and the stress. - After moving back to china, I first started buying shit off jd.com and taobao because I haven’t heard of PDD. Then one day I started using PDD, and from that day onwards, 80% of my online purchases are from PDD. It’s simply the best shopping app in China for most items. That’s all you need to know. The biggest counter-argument is… “But it’s a chinese company! They’re cooking the books” - Just because 1 chinese company cooked the books, doesn’t mean every chinese company is cooking the books, dumbass. - Chinese companies live in fear of being delisted due to the bad reputation that chinese companies have. Do you really think they’re dumb enough to cook the books when they got a target on their back? If you got a target pointed at your back, you play it safe, dumbass. - That 1 chinese company known for cooking its books? Well, if you bought its stock at the bottom, you would have 15x’ed your money, dumbass PDD is a long term hold for me, although I might consider selling if it hits ~$200 USD (2x my book value) in a short timeframe and look at other options. ###This is a sure thing. ###Trust me on this one. P.S. Most of you dumbasses are too dumb to realize that China’s stock market today is like US’s stock market in the 70s. Buffett’s success cannot be replicated today in the US market, but it can be replicated in the chinese market. There are so many undervalued stocks in the Chinese stock market today due to the intense fear investors have for the Chinese stock market, both from domestic chinese investors and international. There are so many opportunities in the chinese stock market today, but most of you watch too much western propaganda and don’t have enough brain cells to think anything else except “CHINA BAD”, “CANT TRUST NO CHINESE COMPANY”, “THEY BE COOKING THE BOOKS AND SHIT YO”, “CHINESE BE COMMUNIST AND SHIT BRO LOL”
Roku’s real value is in the data.	I want you to ask yourself a question: How valuable are the things we pay attention to? Half of American households have a Roku device. Roku is the leading streaming TV distributor in the U.S., reaching nearly 120 million people.Roku's audience is larger than the subscribers of the six largest traditional pay-TV providers combined. It is the #1 smart TV streaming OS in the US, Canada and Mexico. Source: https://developer.roku.com/docs/features/features-overview.md As of the third quarter of 2024, Roku has 85.5 million active accounts worldwide, which is the company's highest ever, a 12.8% increase from Q3 2023. Streaming time per active user: 246.8 minutes per day in Q3 2024, a 5.8% increase from Q3 2023 As part of Roku’s privacy policy, they collect: “Information about your activities, like the channels you install or access (including usage statistics such as what channels you access, the time you access them, and how long you spend viewing them), and information about the videos and other content you select and stream within these streaming services. If you use the Roku Media Player to view your video or photo files or listen to your music files, Roku will collect data about the files viewed within the Roku Media Player, such as codecs, and other metadata of the local files you play.” https://docs.roku.com/published/userprivacypolicy/en/us Why do you think they practically give away their streaming sticks? The money isn’t in their devices, it’s in the data they collect on you. Google’s in a similar business. They have 4.97 billion users, and their market cap is 2.14 Trillion. The valuation is 428x the amount of users. If we applied the same multiples, that means $ROKU is worth around a 37 Billion dollar market cap, putting $ROKU at $250 a share. I’d venture to say it’s more around $750 a share, given the majority of Roku’s users are in the US. Let’s see what this holds.
Moderna is about to break out	Context: An as yet, unidentified virus with respiratory symptoms is circulating in the South West DR Congo region of Kwango. It has affected at least 3 different towns, with 179 people now dead, from over 300 people infected. First cases were recorded in mid-November, with cases likely stretching back to late October. Things are moving quickly. Kinshasa with 17 million people, sits 3.5 hours drive from Kwango. https://nypost.com/2024/12/04/us-news/a-mystery-disease-has-killed-179-mostly-teenagers-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo/ What could it be? Kwango was identified in a 2020 research paper as an area at-risk of a potential zoonotic spillover event (see picture). The study found that bats in the area were infected with coronaviruses with high genetic similarity to existing human coronaviruses. Notably, while recent experience has exemplified the threat of coronaviruses from Asian bat populations, several coronaviruses that now constitute common colds, likely originated in ancestral African bat populations. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.211664v1.full What could we expect in coming days: The last time a substantive pandemic risk hit the market (bird flu), Moderna’s stock rose 40% in a short period of time (peaking at $166). This was despite there being no evidence of human-to-human transmission, H5N1 vaccines already available commercially from competing firms, and effective flu antivirals. Given this is unlikely to be a flu virus, Moderna will have a much more competitive edge, and we could expect to see a much stronger share price result. https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/moderna-stock-is-lone-omen-bird-flu-pandemic-2024-06-17/ Risk: If this doesn’t turn out to be a pandemic risk, the downside risk is low. The news of this event only reached western media yesterday, and hasn’t materially affected prices yet. At the current price you are getting in on the ground floor. Additionally, RFK’s nomination has driven market sentiment of Moderna’s stock to just above cash, which mitigates the downside risk of negative trial readouts in coming weeks. My position: 10000 shares at $41.90
MDA Space $MDALF is profitable and will possibly be trading in the US Stock market soon	This great Canadian Space sector company ( [https://mda.space](https://mda.space) ) has a beautiful chart showing their growth and is profitable. They have market cap of 3.2 Billion. What do they do? MDA Space is a technology and services company that provides advanced solutions to the global space industry: * Geointelligence: Uses satellite data and imagery for climate change monitoring, national security, and global commerce * Robotics & Space Operations: Provides autonomous robotics and vision sensors for space exploration * Satellite Systems: Provides spacecraft and systems for space-based services, including broadband internet connectivity MDA Space has a history of firsts and over 450 missions. They have been providing operational readiness support for the International Space Station's (ISS) Mobile Servicing System since 2001. They are also known for delivering large-scale robotic systems, such as Canadarm2. And this excerpt from a post by user manolo44 sure is bullish: "Their earnings report was stellar: growth of 38% yoy, it is actually PROFITABLE \- none of the other space companies are profitable - profitability with adjusted EBITDA of $55.5 million, up 30% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.7%, net income up 60% yoy, and net debt adjusted EBITDA ratio of just 0.8x (so zero risk of dilution). However, post earnings the stock was mostly flat. Why? Their reported backlog was unchanged from previous quarter report (backlog is 4.6B btw). But if any of you folks had bothered to tune in to the call, you would have heard the CEO say that it is a fact that by year end they will be definitely be signing a new contract worth 750M – of these, only 300M is recorded in backlog – an additional $450M is going to be added upon finalization and this will happen by year’s end. They in fact stated during the Q&A that they are confident they will be finishing 2024 with $5B backlog. They also said MDA’s satellite systems division alone has a $15B+ pipeline of potential projects, thanks to its Aurora-class satellites tailored for low Earth orbit constellations. MDA is building a new 185,000 sq. ft. facility in Quebec, capable of producing two satellites per day starting in late 2025." And then I heard this: MDA Space, which is a sleeping giant merely because it trades in the Toronto Stock Exchange rather than US, is exploring listing in the US, according to comments by its CEO; “Management suggested that it continues to explore a potential dual stock listing in the U.S." [https://www.cantechletter.com/2024/11/mda-will-prosper-under-trump-2-0-rbc-says/#](https://www.cantechletter.com/2024/11/mda-will-prosper-under-trump-2-0-rbc-says/#) Now I am not sure how a dual listing will effect my 500 MDALF shares but if I had to guess I would say it will be a good thing. There have been posts on Reddit about how bad of a company they are to their employees, but just like Yelp you usually only hear about the bad apples, not the good ones, so I take that with a grain of salt. This article that came out today today says they are "one of Toronto's greatest employers" [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/mda-space-named-one-greater-190000623.html](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/mda-space-named-one-greater-190000623.html) Recently RBC upgraded their share price to $30, and Morgan Stanley to $29. Today it closed at $20.52 Here is there LinkedIn if you want to poke around; [https://www.linkedin.com/company/mdaspace/](https://www.linkedin.com/company/mdaspace/) My position is 500 shares at $20.05 and adding bi-monthly from my paycheck. https://preview.redd.it/mzrxn3dzxw4e1.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=f02b2790109ef28ed43d89717a680b91c88b3311
$CVNA - Carvana and its close relationship with DriveTime	Too many weird things happening with this company and industry, so I might break this DD into parts. Not financial advice. Borderline fiction. Don't take what is written here for granted. TL;DR: Carvana has "not at arm's length arrangements" with DriveTime and this could be boosting their metrics. Meanwhile, Carvana's controlling shareholder and DriveTime's owner, Ernie Garcia II, has sold $1.4 billion in shares over the last few months. # Numbers: * Market cap of $53 Billion * P/E ratio: 31,000x (yup, thousands) * D/E ratio: 10x ($6.2B debt for just $600M equity) * Founded: 2012 (as a spinoff of DriveTime) * Employees: 13.700 * CEO: Ernie Garcia III (son of Ernie Garcia II, owner of DriveTime, and controlling shareholder of Carvana) ([TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-CVNA/financials-overview/)) * Insider Trading: +$1.6bi on stock sold in L12M, including: * Ernie Garcia II: \~$1.4 billion since April * Mark Jenkins (CFO): +$72 million and plans to sell more ([YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carvana-ceo-father-sees-1-163234402.html), [SecForm](https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1690820.htm)) * \~9 million shares issued in Q2, bringing $347 million as cash and further diluting shareholder's equity. ([Q2 QR](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q2-2024.pdf)) * "Record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7%, a new all-time best for public automotive retailers" is a highlight of their Q3 results. ([CVNA Q3 2024](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-earning-release-q3-2024.pdf)). # Hypothesis Given that Ernie Garcia II owns DriveTime, Bridgecrest, and SilverRock and remains Carvana's controlling shareholder, Carvana could have been given beneficial contract terms that improved its metrics and, consequently, its market price. Take a look at these paragraphs from their [2023 Annual Report (page 20)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082024000093/cvna-20231231.htm): >"We were incubated by and may benefit from our relationship and a series of arrangements with DriveTime not always negotiated at arm’s length, as DriveTime is controlled by our controlling shareholder who is also the father of our chief executive officer. (...) >DriveTime built certain of our inspection and reconditioning centers ("IRCs") in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas and is now our landlord at some such sites. Verde Investments, Inc. ("Verde"), an affiliate of DriveTime, formerly leased to us our Arizona IRC and sold it to us in 2020. We have also historically leased certain of our hubs from DriveTime. (...) >Consequently, certain of our historical costs and expansion activities may not accurately reflect our future costs and expansion to the extent that DriveTime no longer provides us with such services or refuses to continue doing so at currently contracted-for prices." >"We continue to periodically engage DriveTime, its affiliates, and other entities controlled by our controlling shareholder to provide us with certain services, including the administration of certain VSCs and other related products sold to our customers. (...) >Additionally, DriveTime has in the past and may in the future purchase or sell certain vehicles or automotive finance receivables from or to us. However, there can be no assurance that they will do so on the same or similar terms, or at all. As a result, our historical results may not be reflected in our future results. >Before and after we sell automotive finance receivables originated by us, DriveTime performs ongoing servicing and collections. If DriveTime is unwilling to enter into servicing arrangements for our future automotive finance receivable transactions on terms or at prices consistent with their historical prices or at all, our revenues derived from the sale of those receivables may decline as a result. (...)" By "not always negotiated at arm’s length", it implies they might be receiving favorable benefits in terms of assets, revenue, and expenses. This raises the possibility that their reports may not fairly represent their future costs and expansion, as some aspects could be currently "hidden" under the financial and operational support from DriveTime. According to their Q3 2024 reporting, \~15% of their L9M operating income comes from related parties. ([Q3 Report](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q3-2024.pdf)) # ELI5: 1. Carvana could be unintentionally overstating revenues and understating future expenses through its favorable agreements with DriveTime; 2. Carvana share price increases based on its "all-time best" metrics; 3. Ernie Garcia II - Carvana's controlling shareholder and DriveTime's owner - sells $1.4 billion in stock; 4. At some point, DriveTime and its affiliates may change or dismiss the arrangements, and Carvana's actual revenue, capex, and opex numbers would show up. # "Other Gross Profit Per Unit - GPU" Carvana mentioned their "Total gross profit per unit ("GPU") was $7,427." on their [Q3 2024 report](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q3-2024.pdf). They arrive at this figure by adding together "Retail GPU", "Wholesale GPU", and "Other GPU". I find this calculation quite suspicious tbh but I want to focus on "Other GPU" instead, which was $3,000. Going back to the [2023 Annual Report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082024000093/cvna-20231231.htm): >"Other sales and revenues, which primarily includes gains on the sales of finance receivables we originate and sales commissions on ancillary products such as VSCs, GAP waiver coverage, and auto insurance, totaled $753 million and $741 million during the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. (...) Other sales and revenues are 100% gross margin products for which gross profit equals revenue." (...) >"We generate other sales and revenues primarily through the sales of loans we originate and sell in securitization transactions or to financing partners, reported net of a reserve for expected repurchases, commissions we receive on VSCs, sales of GAP waiver coverage, and commissions and Root Warrants we receive on sales of auto insurance" (...) >"In 2016, we entered into a master dealer agreement with DriveTime, pursuant to which we receive a commission for selling VSCs that DriveTime administers. The commission revenue we recognize on VSCs depends on the number of retail units we sell, the conversion rate of VSCs on these sales, commission rates we receive, VSC early cancellation frequency and product features. The GAP waiver coverage revenue we recognize depends on the number of retail units we sell, the number of customers that choose to finance their purchases with us, the frequency of GAP waiver coverage early cancellation, and the conversion rate of GAP waiver coverage on those sales." (...) >"DriveTime purchases wholesale vehicles from, and sells wholesale vehicles to, both the Company and unrelated third parties through both competitive online auctions that are managed by unrelated third parties and the Company's wholesale marketplace platform. Additionally, beginning in September 2023, the Company provided DriveTime with reconditioning services through its wholesale marketplace platform. The Company recognized $19 million, $32 million, and $54 million of wholesale sales and revenues from DriveTime during the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively." Carvana engages in transactions with DriveTime 'not always at arm’s length,' and DriveTime accounts for a relevant portion of Carvana's revenue and gross profit. This can be a problem. Consider also a hypothetical scenario: Imagine a vehicle with a market price of $10,000. Carvana buys it from a customer for $10,000 and then sells it to DriveTime for $11,000. DriveTime reconditions the vehicle and sells it back to Carvana at a wholesale price of $8,000. Carvana then sells it to a customer for $10,500. * Carvana gross profit: $3,500 * DriveTime gross profit: -$3,000 (excl. costs) This wouldn't be sustainable unless: 1. you own and control both companies, 2. one of them is publicly traded and sensitive to profitability metrics, and 3. you have the ability to sell shares whenever needed. Please I'm not suggesting this happens at Carvana, but given their not always at arm's length arrangements and the lack of detailed data, this scenario remains a possibility. We rely on the work of their auditors to ensure that this is not the case. # How to validate that hypothesis? We would need to investigate the benefits Carvana receives, verify any discrepancies from reality, consider internal transactions, and calculate how these might affect the GPU and other metrics. Unfortunately, SEC reports don't offer enough info for that. Based on their [2024 Proxy Meeting document](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/proxy-statement-2024.pdf), these are the agreements between Carvana and DriveTeam entities and how Carvana has recognized revenue and expenses (summarized via GPT): \|Type\|Description\|Costs/Revenue\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|Lease Agreement\|Carvana leases inspection and reconditioning centers (IRCs) in Blue Mound, Texas, and Delanco, New Jersey from DriveTime.\|Costs recognized: \~$2 million (2023)\| \|Hub Lease Agreement\|Carvana leased office and parking spaces at DriveTime facilities used as hubs. Expired in April 2023.\|Costs recognized: \~$0.1 million (2023)\| \|Houston, TX Vending Machine Lease Guarantee\|DriveTime guaranteed Carvana's lease obligations for a vending machine in Houston, Texas.\|Costs recognized: Unknown\| \|Tempe, AZ Office Space\|Carvana subleased office space from DriveTime and Verde in Tempe, Arizona.\|Costs recognized: \~$0.8 million (2023)\| \|Winder, GA Inspection and Reconditioning Center Lease\|Carvana leases an IRC in Winder, Georgia, from DriveTime.\|Costs recognized: \~$1.1 million (2023)\| \|Servicing Agreements with DriveTime\|DriveTime performs servicing and administrative functions for Carvana's automotive finance receivables.\|Revenue for DriveTime: $3.7 million for owned receivables, $4.5 million for sold loans, $72.4 million under MPSA, $65.0 million under transfer agreements.\| \|Credit Facilities\|DriveTime services finance receivables under Carvana's credit facilities.\|Revenue for DriveTime: $8.8 million\| \|GAP Waiver Insurance Policy\|Carvana purchased GAP waiver insurance policies from DriveTime.\|Revenue: \~$18,000 from profit sharing\| \|Master Dealer Agreement\|Carvana sells and earns commissions on vehicle service contracts (VSCs), administered by DriveTime.\|Revenue: \~$138 million in commissions, Costs: $17 million (2023)\| \|Profit Sharing Agreement\|Carvana sells Road Hazard and Pre-Paid Maintenance contracts, with profit sharing from DriveTime.\|Revenue: \~$7 million (2023)\| \|Insurance Services and Purchase Agreement\|Carvana purchased technology assets from DriveTime and entered into an Insurance Services Agreement.\|Revenue/Costs: None recognized in 2023\| \|Wholesale Revenue\|DriveTime purchases wholesale vehicles from Carvana.\|Revenue: \~$9.8 million from DriveTime wholesale vehicle purchases, $8.0 million from DriveTime's purchases and sales through Carvana's wholesale marketplace platform (2023)\| \|Retail Reconditioning Services\|Carvana provides reconditioning services to DriveTime. Unknown how many vehicles were reconditioned.\|Revenue: $0.8 million, Costs: $0.5 million (2023)\| \|Retail Vehicle Acquisition Agreements\|Carvana purchases reconditioned vehicles from DriveTime. Unclear how many vehicles were purchased and the difference between sold prices and Black Book values.\|Costs: $0.1 million (2023). Note that it was $168 million in [2021](https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/carvana/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=page&FilingId=15678819-125132-155068&CIK=0001690820&Index=17000) and $2.3 million in [2022](https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/carvana/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=page&FilingId=16505487-154132-186087&CIK=0001690820&Index=19000).\| \|Aircraft Time Sharing Agreement\|Carvana shares usage of aircraft operated by DriveTime. Unknown how many flights were performed.\|Costs: \~$0.5 million (2023)\| \|Shared Services Agreement\|DriveTime provides various administrative services to Carvana - such as accounting and tax, legal and compliance, information technology, telecommunications, benefits, insurance, real estate, equipment, corporate communications, software and production, and other services, additional administrative services including but not limited to certain account remediation services.\|Costs: \~$35,000 (2023)\| # SG&A Expenses On a side note, I found it impressive how they've managed to grow retail units sold and expand market hubs without increasing their SG&A expenses over the quarters. https://preview.redd.it/tiyxx6fztw4e1.png?width=1507&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbb011b2e54031366e11afd3614f45dd19773ff6 https://preview.redd.it/ey0l1q60uw4e1.png?width=931&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8760c18263acd55275c4ead7c95139c9c31ce21 They expanded from \~120,000 retail and wholesale vehicles sold in Q3 2023 to +160,000 within 12 months, keeping their market occupancy and logistics costs flat. This should be featured as a case study by Harvard Business Review. Quick Note: Under "definitional differences to consider" on [this document from Q4 2023](https://investors.carvana.com/~/media/Files/C/Carvana-IR/documents/cvna-shareholder-letter-q4-2023.pdf), "Limited Warranty Expenses" and "Outbound Logistics Expenses" are included in SG&A expense rather than COGS. Given that, I'd have expected SG&A to increase as a result of selling +35% more vehicles. # What are other people saying? 1. Grant Thornton highlighted the financial receivables part as a "critical audit matter" ([2023 Annual Report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1690820/000169082024000093/cvna-20231231.htm)). 2. Kellisdale Capital sent a letter to the SEC in February requesting an investigation into these accounting practices ([Source](https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/CVNA-Auditor-Letter.pdf)). 3. Many people here on Reddit raised similar questions. # Notes & Links * Ernie Garcia II and Raymond Fidel (former CEO of DriveTime) have been previously convicted of fraud ([Source](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-10-31-fi-3371-story.html)). >"Garcia II and Fidel are both convicted felons. They played small roles in the Charles Keating/Lincoln Savings and Loan debacle in the late ’80s and early ’90s, reportedly escaping jail time by ratting out their co-conspirators. Interestingly, there was no mention of any federal crimes in Carvana’s 2017 IPO." ([Source](https://www.autodealertodaymagazine.com/357662/never-argue-with-stupid-people)) * Seeking Alpha - Carvana: A Ponzi Collapsing * S&P recently improved Carvana's rating from CCC+ to B- based on its revenue and earnings improvements ([Source](https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/13215870)). * Vroom, a Carvana competitor, failed to secure capital and went bankrupt recently. ([YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRM/), [PressRelease](https://ir.vroom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vroom-announces-equity-debt-recapitalization)) Let me know if I've missed any relevant details or made mistakes. I might post the second part soon, which will cover how their main gross profit depends on low interest rates, along with an overview of their cash flow. Disclosure: I own puts expiring between March 2025 and early 2026. I was struck by the fact that the company depends heavily on DriveTime to operate, has less-than-ideal corporate governance, extreme high debt, and the market still values it at $53 billion.
$ASO: Strong Earnings Potential	Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is a strong player in the sporting goods and outdoor recreation market, but it's flying under the radar heading into the holiday season. The company has a solid track record of profitability, strong revenue growth, and a valuation that looks too low to ignore. # Financial Highlights * 12 mo Revenue: $6.11B * Net Income: $487.2M * 12 mo EPS: $6.45 pretty solid for a retailer in this space * Valuation: P/E ratio is 7.44. For comparison, Dick’s Sporting Goods is 14.97 and they sell the same stuff * FCF: $218M up from $167M last quarter # Why ASO Stands Out 1. Academy opened 16 new stores in 2024 with 1/3 of those in Q4 alone. Goal by 2027 is to open between 160-180 new stores. 2. Partnering with DoorDash for same day delivery so you can get your Wendy's frosty and a new baseball glove in the same order. 3. Academy is known more for its winter and spring sports. Think hunting, fishing, baseball, basketball and those seasons are here and around the corner. And yes they carry all the same items that Dick's does often for more of a deal (Yeti, Nike, Carhartt, Shimano, Brooks, Rawlings, UnderAmour, etc). 4. ASO consistently generates strong earnings, but the market hasn’t caught up yet imo. The P/E ratio is significantly lower than the industry average, making it a potential value play. 5. The 12/10 earnings report could provide the boost this stock needs, especially if they beat expectations or provide strong holiday guidance. Plus, the holiday season itself is a crucial time for ASO, and strong Q4 sales could drive further upside. 6. Analysts are on board with an average price target of $63.40. That’s about a 30% upside from where it’s trading now, suggesting there’s room to grow with upper end being $85. 7. Currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, maybe signaling some hesitation in the market but if it breaks through those levels after earnings, it might attract more buyers. 8. At 62.99 RSI, it’s not quite overbought but heading in that direction - another sign that buyers are starting to show some interest. TLDR Academy Sports is a profitable, undervalued company with a big quarter ahead into the holiday/ spring sports season. Position (im poor for now): 20 1/17 $70c
ZIM at a discount price	ZIM Integrated Shipping Services had a strong Q3 earnings release in November beating the expectations. They raised their 2024 full year guidance of 300M and it's very likely they will give another good dividend for the upcoming quarter. After the earnings release on Nov 20 the price shoot up to $30 and came back down in the oversold territory of $19, the P/E of the company is fairly low right now. One of the reasons about that recent drop in price is because it's a dividend stock and they will pay a juicy $3.65 per share on Dec 9 which represents 16.5% on the last day (Nov 29) before trading ex-dividend (Dec 2). The stock is currently consolidating and staying in the range of $18 to $21 until the dividend is received (Dec 9) and starting next week I'm expexting to stock price to move back up again. The company added 42 new ships in the past 3 years and they are expecting 4 more ships by the end of 2024. More ships shoud bring more revenues if no outside factors disturb their activities and the container price stays in the same range. That's my quick thesis on this stock and if you dig deeper I think you should feel comfortable in putting money on this play. Source as always : Trust me bro! TL:DR ... I expect ZIM to go up in the range of $24.5 / $26.5 within the next 2 months. You can play safe and buy shares of try calls for Feb 21 or later. Positions 120k : 5500 shares @ $22.12 (pre-dividend) 55CC Dec 6 strike $21.16 Waiting for my dividend on Dec 9 5500 x $3.65 = 20k This is not financial advice I'm just another regard who is up 300% this year and hoping for more. Cheers!
Nebius Group (NBIS) your new AI baby that's set to double or triple	This company used to be Yandex (the Google of Russia) but with Ukraine sanctions it was temporarily delisted before appealing to Nasdaq and agreeing to sever all ties with Russia in order to be relisted. They're Netherlands-based now, making their business very cool and very legal. Market cap is currently 6.55 billion and Yandex previously reached a valuation of 31 billion back in 2021--you do the math (with the shitty little calculator you keep on your desk). Does 2+2 still equal 4? Then it's a buy, brother. BROTHER. And on Monday it was announced that NVDA and a few others dumped $700 million into the company: >09:03 AM EST, 12/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Nebius Group (NBIS) announced Monday a $700 million private placement financing with participation from Accel, NVIDIA, and Orbis Investments. >The company said the funds will support the company's global expansion of full-stack AI infrastructure, including large-scale GPU clusters, cloud platforms, and AI development tools. >The financing involves issuing 33.33 million Class A shares at $21 each, a 3% premium to the recent average trading price. >Proceeds will bolster Nebius' AI-native infrastructure, such as its Nebius AI Studio and build-to-suit data centers. >Accel Partner Matt Weigand has been granted board observer rights and will be nominated as a director in 2025. >Following strong trading activity since October, Nebius has canceled plans to repurchase its Class A shares. I don't know about you guys, but I trust NVDA because Jensen once signed a woman's boobs and that's what I look for in a CEO. ~~Position: 2,500 shares at $30.20 and 10 Dec $35 calls (as a treat)~~ ~~Calls are pretty expensive so I think shares are the strat here but grabbed some Dec calls for fun yesterday when they were still kind of reasonable (up over 50% at the moment).~~ Position update as of 1/28/25: 3650 shares at $31.65 50 Feb calls at $40 strike 14 March 7 calls at $30 (Likely will let these exercise at expiry as long as they're itm)
Symbotic ($SYM): The Hidden Gem Nobody's Watching (Yet)	Boys, girls, and degenerates of all flavors, I present to you the tendie machine of the future: Symbotic ($SYM)—a company that’s about to automate everything except your bad financial decisions. You know those boring jobs in warehouses? Yeah, $SYM is here to make sure robots do them instead. They're automating supply chains for big-name whales like Walmart and Target. Picture a warehouse full of little robotic autists zipping around, stacking boxes, and making Jeff Bezos sweat. Now imagine that happening everywhere. That's $SYM's future. Why Invest you ask? Well, three main reasons. 1. Nobody, and I mean nobody on this sub is talking about it. Its AI, its robotics, its what we love, it's sexy and not a single post has been created about them. I am early, you are early, we are all early. Go on, search the subreddit, see if you can find anything recently. 2. Now, here’s where it gets spicy. You know a stock has potential when it’s already had accounting errors and TWO tax fraud issues. Classic. That’s the kind of chaos we love. If you think this will stop them, you must be new here. It’s not fraud; it’s creative bookkeeping. If you’re worried about numbers not adding up, congrats, you’re not WSB material. The best plays are the sketchiest ones. I mean, they got caught twice, but they’re still here. That means one thing: they’re resilient. This is like a phoenix rising from a pile of shredded tax forms 3. The financials are solid, according to my accounting roommate who is no longer an accountant. 54% YoY revenue growth. Almost profitable. Strong customer base and over 10 billion in orders for the future. the best part? Softbank backed. Have I said enough? Closing argument Despite some small human errors within the financial department and getting a few numbers wrong, the product is there, the demand for it is there. And, need I not say one more goddamn time, its robotics and AI. The revenue keeps growing and the comapny is only valued at $20B with $1.8B of revenue a year. Its the opportunity to save your marriage, your house, and your kids. They dropped 40% last week cuz of an 'error', I can't see it not making back 20% of that in the next 3-6 months. You are early. Position (im poor): 10k in stock, calls (im locked out of my trading account but it was something like exp feb $30 strike price.) Edit: the stock is up 17% today idk what is going on, what have you guys done.
Your Most Expensive RDDT Scroll: A Story From 2026	Charles Dickens here (tl;dr at the end): Thanksgiving 2026. Your electric car just auto-parked (still no flying cars, thanks Elon). Walking in, you hear uncle Dave's voice over the turkey: "This readit thing is amazing! Found out how to fix my garage door on the DIY subbit last week. Bought some shares at $300 when my buddy at Fidelity wouldn't shut up about it. Hey, weren't you always on this reddit site?" The same RDDT that's now everyone's go-to for actually useful answers instead of SEO garbage that used to trend at the top of search results. The site you're still checking 47 times a day. # Let's Rewind to 2024 When You (Maybe) Missed It Here are the numbers staring you in the face right now: * 90% margins (better than Google, thanks to text-based content and mods) * 68% revenue growth year over year * 97.2M daily users growing 47% annually * Data licensing up 547% (turns out our shitposting has value) * Wall Street quietly loading up (+122% institutional ownership change) [⭐ Former CEO Yishan casually dropped the blueprint 3 weeks ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1gomnhh/comment/lwnsl9e/): "Reddit is one of the largest actually-useful-content sites on the internet. That by itself is a moat." and "In Reddit's case, the core strength is that basically everyone else gave up on the "classic internet" of true user forums and all the richness that comes with that. The fact that everyone now appends "reddit" to their search queries means that Reddit just accidentally ate search, while AI search is still unreliable." While other platforms chased AI chatbots, Reddit doubled down on being the place for real human knowledge - and they are now getting paid for this by -all- ML/AI providers to train their models in an ongoing way. Why should it stop? Imagine if Google stopped indexing the web in 2021, how useful would it be? # Congratulations, You Had Alpha and (Maybe) Acted Like a Beta Alpha, aka you can beat the market due to "not yet fully priced in". For once in your life, you actually had insider information and a headstart. You've been using this platform daily for years, watching it grow, survive blackouts and rebellions, seeing the engagement firsthand. Everyone said at one point "that is enough, I'm leaving", and yet here we are. Look at the institutional ownership story (based on Finviz data) * Pinterest: 77% * Snap: 51% * Reddit: 39%, and growing crazy (+122% increase, mostly since the Q3 number revelation) Translation: Those Chad analysts who just "discovered" Reddit still have % of buying to do just to match other social platforms. The same guys writing [$200 price targets (and $300 bull cases)](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/reddit-upgraded-overweight-equal-weight-morgan-stanley) are probably reading this post right now for their next investment thesis, updating their PowerPoints about "untapped market potential" and "engagement metrics" that you've been seeing firsthand for years. They're figuring out that: 1. The platform has better margins than Google (90%) - thanks to mostly text-based content 2. Growing faster than Pinterest or Snap ever did - thanks to Google-vouch and ML localization 3. With the latest AI-craze, their non-stop, text-base, perfectly crawlable human content can be heavily licensed ($) For once, you were early to something. You had the inside track. And you're letting Patagonia-vested-dudes steal your lunch money while he expense-accounts his at Sweetgreen. # The Path to $100B You Should Have Seen Coming Pinterest peaked at $50B showing wedding cakes. Twitter sold for $44B before becoming whatever it is now. Reddit at $26B: * Actually profitable * Better margins than both combined * Still only using 1/3 to 1/2 of potential ad space compred to others * Machine learning translation rolling out to 30+ countries (tests in France showed +50% growth) * The only major platform still growing users at 47% YoY * See chart below: relative Google Trend (per platform) shows RDDT is more trending than ever before [Again, RELATIVE growth of Google Trends. But look at that beautiful, solid, robust orange growth.](https://preview.redd.it/3ezc3gvh4t4e1.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a0a784c76756a8ba2c9067de459a2e0665ead30) # TL;DR RDDT is now profitable, growing 47% YoY with 90% margins, institutions are loading up fast, and you're reading this on their platform right now, thinking you missed the boat at $150 - newsflash: you didn't (yet). [Ex-CEO yishan dropped DD 3 weeks ago ](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1gomnhh/comment/lwnsl9e/)explaining why it's a money printer. Don't be the guy havinig to explain to your friends & family in 2026 why you missed out. And of course this is *not* actual investment advice, just a lengthy thanksgiving story.
Teladoc Health (TDOC): Why It’s Poised for a Comeback	# Hello fellow degenerates, Let’s talk about Teladoc (TDOC). If you’ve been following, you know it’s been through the fire and the flames. Once a darling of the telehealth boom, it’s now more like the kid who got benched after fucking up the big game. But I believe the tide is about to turn. Here’s my DD on why Teladoc might just be gearing up for a glorious comeback. --- ## 1. Current Stock Snapshot: The Lay of the Land Teladoc’s stock has seen better days, but as of now: - Stock Price: \$10.95 (down slightly today). - 52-Week Range: From scraping the barrel at \$9.50 to peaking around \$30. - Market Cap: Roughly \$1.8 billion. This might look like a crash and burn to some, but I see opportunity at a discount. --- ## 2. Leadership Overhaul: A Fresh Start In June 2024, Teladoc made a bold move by appointing Chuck Divita as CEO. For context, Divita’s background includes: - Leadership roles in companies like Humana, where he focused on growth and operational efficiency. - A track record of successfully restructuring struggling business units. Divita’s focus on cost-cutting and streamlining operations has already started to show results in the company’s latest reporting and the best is yet to come. --- ## 3. Financial Performance: Clearing the Decks Let’s address the elephant in the room: Teladoc’s financials. Here’s what we know from Q2 2024: - Goodwill Impairment: They took a \$790 million write-down on BetterHelp, their mental health arm, which has a dogshit reputation, especially after their data privacy scandal. Believe it or not, people don’t want their deepest secrets and personal data sold to third parties. Whodathunkit? - Net Loss: \$838 million (yikes, but let’s look closer). - Revenue: \$650 million (up 5% YOY). ### Why This Isn’t All Bad News: - The goodwill impairment is an accounting adjustment. It’s painful now, but it clears the books for future growth. - BetterHelp’s revenue decline is a reflection of tightened marketing spend, which aligns with the new CEO’s cost-cutting strategy. - TDOC has had a steady upward trend in revenue growth YOY. A good sign of internal management. --- ## 4. Market Position: Still a Leader Teladoc remains a dominant player in telehealth, with: - 80+ million members. - Partnerships with major insurers like UnitedHealthcare and CVS Health. - A robust tech platform that integrates telehealth, mental health, and chronic condition management. ### Competitors: Teladoc’s main rivals are Amwell and MDLIVE, but neither has the same level of services, and also Amwell is dogshit. Teladoc’s ecosystem approach makes it stand out, especially as big employers and insurers need seamless integrated solutions. --- ## 5. Industry Outlook: Telehealth Is Here to Stay The pandemic normalized virtual care, but the trend isn’t going anywhere. Key stats: - Market Growth: The global telehealth market is projected to reach \$560 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 24%). - Adoption Rates: 40% of patients now prefer telehealth for routine care. - Regulatory Tailwinds: The U.S. government has extended telehealth reimbursement policies through 2025. Teladoc is uniquely positioned to capture this growth, thanks to its first-mover advantage and established brand. --- ## 6. Valuation: A Bargain Basement Buy? At its current price, Teladoc trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.5x. For comparison: - Amwell: 2.3x P/S. - Healthcare Sector Average: 4.0x P/S. This signals Teladoc is significantly undervalued relative to peers, especially given its revenue growth. --- ## 7. Catalysts: What Could Drive a Comeback? - Profitability Goals: Teladoc aims to achieve positive EBITDA by mid-2025. - Product Expansion: Launching AI-powered tools for personalized care. - Potential Acquisition Target: At its current valuation, TDOC could attract interest from larger healthcare players. --- ## 8. Risks: No Rose-Colored Glasses - Competition: Amazon is in this space. Relentless as fuck as always. - Marketing Spend: Scaling back on ads could slow growth in the short term but is smart for a branding reboot. - Macroeconomic Factors: Higher interest rates make growth companies less attractive to some investors. --- ## 9. Conclusion: Why I’m Bullish Teladoc is a classic turnaround story. Yes, it’s been beaten down, but the fundamentals—leadership changes, cost-cutting, and a growing market—suggest a brighter future. At its current valuation, the risk-reward ratio looks attractive. Do I want to be convinced otherwise? Fucking no so leave me alone bc I’m sensitive. --- ### TL;DR - New leadership and strategic reset. - Strong market position in a growing industry. - Valuation suggests upside potential. - Risks exist, but the reward looks worth it. Disclaimer: I’m just a rando on the internet sharing opinions, this is not financial advice, I just like the stock.
SMCI - value or trap?	I have seen many post about SMCI and highlighting its potential undervalued qualities. Many see it growing to $160 a share, but in a crowd of bulls I will be one of the bears on the company. Whenever one wants to get a feel for what the priorities of a company are one should look no further than how executives are rewarded. CEO Charles Liang went from a salary + options package prior to 2021 to a $1.00 salary & pure options/RSU package in March of 2021 when the 2021 CEO Performance Package was passed. Interesting timing given the boom in the AI markets. Mr. Liang cannot have his salary or other cash comp adjusted until June 30th, 2026. One of the KPI's was based around none other than share price appreciation. The package was awarded and set at a share price of $34.08 and the goals were broken into five tranches with the highest being $120 a share and all this needed to be hit by September 30th, 2026. This would have been a CAGR of 25% over ~5.5 years but lucky for SMCI shareholders this was achieved in ~2.2 years for a 75% CAGR. In November 2023 the compensation package was adjusted with the approval of the 2023 CEO Compensation Package where SMCI was again lucky enough to achieve almost all goals on share price appreciation on these new tranches too. Their CFO had no KPI's around the company's health. Nothing regarding leverage ratios, operating income, cash flow generation, but three KPI's that were 1) share price appreciation (2X weighted), long-term investor increase (2X weighted), and an individual performance measured by Mr. Liang. The CFO being rewarded heavily on share price appreciation and attractive investing should be a red flag. And while the CFO achieved these goals in such a short time, he has now been rewarded with losing his job. One must ask why? Another target is around revenue growth and while any company should be focused on revenue, the above KPI's highlight a culture that is focused on driving share price appreciation before all else. There is an active whistleblower lawsuit stating SMCI improperly recognized revenue and just today that same whistleblower doubled down on such claims. December 5th, 2023 SMCI made a public offering of 2,415,805 shares, then they went and issued convertible notes in February 2024, then on March 22nd, 2024 they went and issued another round of equity for 2,000,000 shares. All of this equity at a time when executives are rewarded for share price gains. The Ablecom/Compuware relationship has been called out and I think it should have more attention. There is a lot of PO movement between these companies that are all owned by relatives. These two companies also handle design work, tool builds, and various other things; do we know where all the debt lies and perhaps CAPEX is understated as it's absorbed elsewhere? Impossible to say either way given we can't get public financials for these other organizations. No comment from SMCI leaves investors left to speculate. Now we get to the recent news of EY resigning. I have seen some estimates that EY was walking from multiple million dollar deal in being the auditor for SMCI, what did they see? Given the trouble EY has had over the past few years with a failed split and SEC fines, walking away from a potential AI darling account seems very difficult to understand. In the 8-K statement filed by SMCI, EY was quoted as *"we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”, which is no light statement. Yet, an internal investigation by SMCI finds nothing that aligned with what EY found? No discrepancy at all? This investigation by SMCI was led by someone who is now a board member, but of course Mr. Market rallies on the news of "no fault" but the pieces do not fit. The recent cancellations of two bank facilities should also raise red flags. It is clear if you read the terms that SMCI was in violation of debt covenants and would have been in default, but these terminations now constrict liquidity. SMCI has stated they will possibly need these lending facilities to fund inventory as they see growth, but because of these filings delays and auditor resignations they cancelled them. I am not seeing many talk about the future growth constraints from this move. It also highlights there may be more here because why not work with the banks? Unless of course you have no intention of filing your 10-K/Q anytime soon or there is true risks on what BDO finds. While the above may indeed be nothing, I am having a hard time reading the recent events as bullish. While a self audit is good show and will likely prevent a delisting, the delayed 10-K/Q gives investors no insight into where the company stands. It is possible BDO will begin their audit and find gaps the same as EY. The equity offerings at a time when executives are rewarded for share price appreciation also is a red flag from an investor POV as your dilution is funding direct reward. The MOAT for SMCI is not as strong as many state and the margins are not either. While this may be value in many investors eyes, there is some big risks here that I see ignored because stoinks only go up. Edit:* corrected the second sentence from "many see it return" to "many see it growing" which is what I meant. Edit 2: this isn't investment advice and one should invest after doing their OWN DD. I am only presenting a bear case that is on what I can find via public filings with the SEC. Again, do your own DD and don't invest based on anything anyone writes on social media.
$CROX 2025 undervalued play	local stores are consistently busy, and the brand is a favorite, which is a positive sign. However, I have concerns about whether the brand can maintain its popularity, especially if trends shift or kids gravitate toward something new. Competition from cheaper alternatives and the long lifespan of Crocs for adults, which may reduce repeat purchases, could pose challenges over time. 1. Low Valuation Multiples: Crocs is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8.06, significantly lower than the average P/E ratio in the consumer discretionary sector. Additionally, its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.62 and price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) ratio of 6.90 suggest the stock is priced attractively relative to its revenue and cash flow generation. 2. Strong Margins and Cash Flow: The company boasts healthy margins, with gross margins at 58.15% and an operating margin of 26.16%. Its free cash flow has grown steadily, reaching $940 million in the trailing twelve months, with a free cash flow yield of 14.49% 3. Revenue Growth and Market Position: Crocs has shown consistent revenue growth, with a 3.17% year-over-year increase for 2024. It also maintains a strong position in the casual footwear market, bolstered by a popular product lineup and strategic acquisitions. 4. Debt Management: While its debt-to-equity ratio is on the higher side at 1.03, it has significantly reduced its leverage compared to previous years, improving its overall financial health. The market is not fully appreciating its profitability, brand strength, and ability to generate cash flow. Disclosures I have x5 2/21/25 $125 calls
GTLB - DD	Okay y’all this is my first time doing one of these, so please be patient. People have asked me about this trade for a while now, so here are my thoughts. I give this a buy rating for the earnings call. Here is why. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts are showing undervalued with positive upside as indicated by the Bollinger bands. The MACD is indicating a buy crossover at the end of a long red period. Implied volatility seems to say there will be a +-13.5% move. Previous earnings look good, not too worried about anything in the news. Spy is red today and is generally pulling other stocks, down, but GTLB is pushing back. My expectation is that we buy now, hold through earnings because this is the perfect setup for that discount pricing. SPY recovers in a day or two and trends up giving the market a boost. When earnings come, it will catapult. The charts say it is going up, spy will boost that. If it goes down, spy will slow it a little, but I would expect a 3m period of holding to get out at the current price if it drops by 13%. So, there we have it, a perfect setup, with market boosting, and earnings catalyst ready to push up. My anticipated price target is $71. Thoughts?
$AUTL - Insanely Undervalued Cancer Treatment	Hey, I don't know why more people aren't talking about this, so here I go doing my best to articulate how excited I am for this stock. # What the hell is it? Autolus Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in CAR-T cell therapies aimed at treating various cancers. Their flagship product, Aucatzyl (obecabtagene autoleucel), targets relapsed or refractory B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (r/r B-ALL). # Recent Developments * FDA Approval: On November 8, 2024, the FDA approved Aucatzyl for adult patients with r/r B-ALL, marking a significant milestone for the company. ([Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autolus-therapeutics-reports-third-quarter-120000687.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Clinical Data Publication: The New England Journal of Medicine published data from the pivotal Phase 1b/2 FELIX study of Aucatzyl, reporting a 76.6% overall response rate with a low incidence of severe immune-related toxicities. Needless to say, this is a huge deal. # Financial Health As of Q3 September 30, 2024, Autolus reported: * Cash and Cash Equivalents: $657.1 million, up from $239.6 million as of December 31, 2023. ([Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autolus-therapeutics-reports-third-quarter-120000687.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Total Operating Expenses: $67.9 million for Q3 2024, compared to $42.9 million for the same period in 2023. * Net Loss: $82.1 million for Q3 2024, up from $45.8 million in Q3 2023. The company estimates that its current cash reserves are sufficient to support the full launch and commercialization of Aucatzyl in r/r adult B-ALL, as well as advance its pipeline development plans. # Technical Analysis (Take this part with a grain of salt, because I'm 100% regurgitating the information I found.) The stock is trading above its short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating a potential bullish trend. * Relative Strength Index (RSI): 14-day RSI is at 37.34%, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold territory. * Stochastic Oscillator: 14-day value at 31.91%, also indicating potential oversold conditions. * MACD: The MACD line is below the signal line, a bearish indicator suggesting downward momentum. * Support and Resistance Levels: * Support: $2.80 * Resistance: $3.50 Breaking above the $3.50 resistance could signal a bullish reversal, while dropping below the $2.80 support may lead to further declines. # Bull Case * Regulatory Milestone: FDA approval of Aucatzyl positions Autolus as a key player in the CAR-T therapy market. * Strong Clinical Data: High response rates with low toxicity enhance the therapy's market potential. * Solid Cash Position: With over $657 million in cash, the company is well-funded for commercialization and pipeline development. * Analyst Optimism: Analysts have set an average price target of $10.20, suggesting significant upside potential. ([Stock Analysis](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/autl/forecast/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # Bear Case * Market Competition: The CAR-T therapy space is competitive, with established players like Novartis and Gilead. * Financial Losses: Increasing net losses may raise concerns about long-term profitability. * Execution Risks: Challenges in manufacturing, distribution, and market adoption could impact commercial success. # Conclusion Autolus Therapeutics has achieved significant milestones with the FDA approval of Aucatzyl and promising clinical data. While the stock has experienced recent volatility, sure, the long-term outlook appears positive, especially considering the potential market impact of their CAR-T therapies. Therefore, especially considering that analysts believe this is either a strong buy or simply undervalued, this is a great play for the next 12 months. That being said, you do you, and manage your own risks. Biotech is notoriously high risk, high reward, so keep that in mind. My position is 3,770 shares. Edit: Now at 3,850 shares @$3.17. Update 1/2/25: Averaged down to $2.70, 7000 shares. Yahoo finance has since wrote two articles so far about $AUTL, with one referencing this post. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-autolus-therapeutics-autl-one-194339073.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autolus-therapeutics-plc-autl-bull-001226399.html This is for amusement purposes and should not be considered as financial advice.
$PL - Earth Data to Become Increasingly Valuable Under Trump Administration	Alright, cat has gotten out of the bag while I have been writing this and Planet Labs is no longer a secret. This analysis is not written by ChatGPT, hopefully not nauseatingly sales-y, and has no regarded emojis or over the top use of “To the Moon”. No frills, just my take on where I think there is deep value. Overview: Earth observation data as a business has long struggled to be profitable. It requires significant CAPEX, is high risk (strapping a cam to a rocket essentially), and the R+D on a lot of the imaging can be pretty exorbitant. The main leader in the space, Planet Labs, went public in the SPAC boom. As a whole, they’ve underperformed the promises they presented in their first prospectus. Planet Labs sought to be a "One to Many" data provider, and their main selling point was that earth data could be widely commercialized. While this is still fundamentally true, in the time since going public they have essentially become a government contractor (75% revenue from some form of government with only a quarter from general business use) (source: Q2 Investor Presentation). Revenue being sourced primarily from the government is two sides of the same coin and the value lies in the eye of the beholder: it's bad because they are too reliant on too few customers, or that government revenue is extremely sticky and a major growth driver under the right administration. I am of the latter opinion. I think we are at an inflection point that could cause Planet Labs to become far more profitable than they are currently, which will cause their valuation to adjust higher (far higher than even their recent run-up). While the use cases for the their data is very broad, it has become evident in the last few years that the most profitable one is government use. My thesis lies in the following: 1. Donny and a Republican majority House/Senate will have a much larger Defense and Intelligence budget. They will be willing to pay a premium to obtain top tier defense and intelligence data from vendors like $PL. 2. NATO contract is highly promising (https://spacenews.com/planet-signs-deal-with-nato-to-supply-satellite-imagery/) and is a first of its kind deal. Follow-on mandates to come if $PL executes. 3. Launch of Tanager-1 (a first of its kind methane specific tracking satellite - highly valuable for int'l governments seeking to gather data on parties with the most harmful emissions) and subsequent release of data should bolster top-line (new sales team will hopefully execute). Also before you ask, why can’t RKLB, SpaceX, etc. just strap cameras to their rockets? Or why can’t Starlink tack some cameras on their satellites? Boiled down most simply: they can’t do it efficiently or cost-effectively. They’d have to divert time and resources away from their primary businesses (which already have their own significant challenges) just to fight an uphill battle; this can be discussed more at length if clarity is needed but I just don’t see it as a likely scenario. Generally speaking this would more likely materialize as a continued symbiotic relationship (Planet Labs uses SpaceX rockets to launch their satellite constellations for example). Other thoughts: Larger market cap compared to closest peer, no debt, invests more heavily in development of new technologies (I view this as a plus long term - they understand that earth images can be commoditized and are spending heavily to develop a suite of analytics products which can materially enhance user experience - this will create competitive advantage long-term; and yes before you ask, their data is being used to train AI models - see Laconic deal today - perfect example of their R+D spend beginning to pay off), recently trimmed workforce (leaner operating structure), largest and highest-quality satellite fleet (and it's not even close - actually a staggering difference), multiple partnerships with Google (Google owns \~12%), rumors are circling that they will finally announce positive adj EBITDA either this quarter or next (management has been targeting Q4) Position and Price Target: I am planning to update this and positions continuously; I do believe in the growth of PL and will likely add on. May roll the 12/20’s, not decided yet. Position: 12/20/2025 $5C 9x 4/17/2025 $5C 4x Target: $PL 5/1/2025: $10/share TLDR: Earth data used for defense and intelligence will become significantly more valuable over the next year due to major administrative tailwinds. Donny's Department of Defense will award more government contracts at a higher value, which will finally let them scale in the way they were meant to (R+D, Capex, and cash burn from last few years will all be justified by a stronger top-line). The mature business model for $PL is essentially a software company with high gross margins. The margin expansion will finally be realized as more contracts are awarded and valuations will correct accordingly. Additionally, while they do seek to serve a wide array of industries (i.e. agriculture, natural resources, etc.) the biggest short term tailwinds (I think) will be defense and intelligence contracts. Also - it is impossible to have covered all the bases in this, so shoot your questions below and let's discuss. Happy to try and answer/clarify any of the above points. Lastly, I am a complete regard lol I could be wrong; not financial advice.
CHINA BAD, BABA GOOD [DD]	CHINA BAD With that out of the way, let's discuss our favorite Chinese company: Alibaba ($BABA). Alibaba is China's largest e-commerce company and technology conglomerate. They operate the following businesses: \|Category\|Business\|Description\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|E-Commerce\|Taobao\|China’s largest consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace\| \|E-Commerce\|Tmall\|B2C platform for brands and businesses targeting Chinese consumers\| \|E-Commerce\|1688\|Domestic B2B platform for trade between Chinese suppliers and buyers\| \|E-Commerce\|[Alibaba.com](http://Alibaba.com)\|Global B2B platform for international trade\| \|E-Commerce\|Lazada\|E-commerce platform serving Southeast Asia\| \|Generative AI\|Tongyi Qianwen (Qwen)\|Generative AI\| \|Cloud Computing\|Aliyun\|Cloud Service Provider\| \|Logistics\|Cainiao\|Logistics and supply chain network to support Alibaba's e-commerce platforms\| \|Digital Media & Entertainment\|Youku\|Video streaming platform similar to YouTube\| \|Digital Media & Entertainment\|Alibaba Pictures\|Film production and distribution company\| \|Digital Media & Entertainment\|Damai\|Event ticketing platform\| \|Financial Services\|Ant Group\|Parent company of Alipay, which offers mobile payments, wealth management, lending, and insurance services, as well as a range of other fintech offerings such as MYbank and Ant Fortune. Alibaba owns a 33% stake\| \|Retail and Other Services\|[Ele.Me](http://Ele.Me)\|Food delivery service operating in China\| \|Retail and Other Services\|Freshippo (Hema)\|Online-to-offline grocery retail chain offering fresh food and home delivery\| \|Retail and Other Services\|DingTalk\|Business communication and collaboration platform\| \|Retail and Other Services\|Alibaba Health\|Health service platform providing digital healthcare and e-pharmacy solutions. Alibaba owns a 66% stake.\| It's a ridiculously large conglomerate of mostly loss-leading industries. The primary drivers of income are the E-Commerce, Cloud, and Logistics segments, which subsidize the high growth subsidiaries. I'm not going to dive into the business qualitatively, although there's plenty of qualitative reasons to be bullish on China at this point: 1. [PCAOB has full access to the accounting for Alibaba](https://pcaobus.org/news-events/news-releases/news-release-detail/pcaob-secures-complete-access-to-inspect-investigate-chinese-firms-for-first-time-in-history#:~:text=Public%20Company%20Accounting%20Oversight%20Board,time%20in%20history%2C%20in%202022); PwC (Big 4) is Alibaba's auditor 2. [Tech Crackdown has essentially been over for a year.](https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3227753/timeline-chinas-32-month-big-tech-crackdown-killed-worlds-largest-ipo-and-wiped-out-trillions-value) 3. [Stock recently connected to the Chinese exchanges, allowing Chinese citizens to purchase the stock](https://www.alibabagroup.com/en-US/document-1769951994501398528) (it has never dipped below the price of $83/share, where it traded on September 9 prior to this inclusion. Chinese owners have only ever seen green) 4. [Alibaba's Qwen AI is topping the charts in model ranking.](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibabas-large-language-model-tops-093000912.html) (Just don't ask it about Tiannanmen Square) 5. [China is gearing up a massive stimulus plan.](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/this-is-when-china-is-likely-to-present-new-significant-fiscal-stimulus-plan-db-4552712) These are all certainly catalysts, but I think the fundamental analysis is far more interesting. Based on their trailing 12 month earnings and current balance sheet, at 200B Market Cap, Alibaba trades on these multiples: \|Multiple\|BABA\|S&P500\|S&P 500 Premium (Discount)\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|P/S\|1.5\|3.1\|106%\| \|P/E\|17.7\|29.7\|67%\| \|Operating Margin\|15%\|12%\|(25%)\| \|P/OI (Operating Income)\|10\|25.8\|158%\| \|Forward P/E\|10\|24\|140%\| \|P/B\|1.55\|5\|223%\| \|P/FCF\|11\|24.3\|121%\| \|EV/EBITDA\|8.8\|17.5\|99%\| \|PEG Ratio (Assuming 5% Growth)\|3.5\|6\|71%\| Generic fundamental ratios look beautiful compared to the S&P 500 for BABA, but that's just the start. Alibaba's net book value is highly liquid, with significant portions of its long term assets stored in equity investments. Realistically, Alibaba is both a China ETF with its equity holdings, and a core business. Thus, subtracting book value from the market cap and using operating income gives us a better picture of the market's valuation of Alibaba's earnings (which excludes gains/losses from interest+investments) \|Metric\|BABA\|SP500\| \|:-\|:-\|:-\| \|Market Cap\|200B\|\~48T\| \|P/B Ratio\|1.5\|5\| \|Market Cap - Book Value\|67B\|\~38T\| \|Operating Income\|20B\|\~1.86T\| \|Book Value Adj. Market Cap / Operating Income\|3.35\|\~20.4\| Just, wow. When you subtract Alibaba's net book value and place a multiple on the operating income alone, Alibaba trades at 3.35x income, as opposed to the SP500 index 20.4. That's a 508% premium for the SP500. By the above metrics, Alibaba trades at a 50-75% discount to intrinsic value. Based on the current market cap, that's around 400-600B of intrinsic value. But wait! CHINA BAD! Absolutely, China Bad. So, let's caveat this with some data. According to Polymarket, the highest yearly odds of China invading Taiwan is around \~20%. Let's be as conservative as possible. Let's use Polymarket's highest yearly odds of China invading Taiwan as the odds of Alibaba stock going to Zero. Assuming Alibaba stock goes to Zero in this circumstance, let's see what the current market cap of Alibaba should be, adjusting for the risk, and using my bear case low end 400B intrinsic value. \|Alibaba Intrinsic Value\|Chance of Happening\| \|:-\|:-\| \|400B\|80%\| \|0 (War with China)\|20%\| We take the calculated intrinsic value example (400B), multiplied by the chance of not going to zero (80%), and end up with 320B market cap, adjusted for the China Bad risk. That's 60% upside from here. In the bull case intrinsic value of 600B, multiplied by 80%, we end up with 480B market cap, adjusted for the China Bad risk. That's 140% upside from here. TL;DR: No matter how you slice it, even if you take the most conservative valuation metrics for Alibaba and pair them with the most bearish estimates of chance of war with China, Alibaba is still severely undervalued. Even a China bear could justify owning Alibaba at these prices. https://preview.redd.it/g4g8nxfd2i4e1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=53ef9d7ff4e35604e0e11b8eddbbd5f734d4dea7 Position: $600,000 long 6K+ Alibaba shares. Edit: [Shkreli has opened a BABA position today.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CO9PuxeTMxk)
Bigbear.ai is primed and ready for take-off	# TL;DR: BigBear.ai is flying under the radar but has massive potential. This is your chance to grab a future AI juggernaut while it's still cheap. There is a perfect storm of catalysts brewing (government contracts, strategic market positioning, and booming AI demand) - think Palantir but still in its early innings. What is it? Bigbear is an AI-powered decision-making and analytics platform with a strong focus on government contracts, particularly with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and intelligence agencies. Their software helps organizations predict, visualize, and act on complex data to drive better outcomes. Why has it been overlooked? 1. Tiny market cap of around $550m. 2. Low institutional ownership of less than 10% - mostly VC and Retail (although this has been growing over the last few months). 3. Went public via SPAC so the share price dropped massively initially. What it has going for it 1. Secured a 5-year $165m USD contract from the US Army in October - clearly working closely with government agencies. 2. 2024 Q3 22.1% revenue increase to $41.5m and an improved gross margin of 25.9%, despite a net loss of $12.2m. 3. It's cheap af - expecting FY24 revenue of up to $180m at just $550m market cap. Granted it is loss-making currently but so is RKLB, ACHR, etc.. 4. Rated as a Strong Buy from Wall Street analysts. 5. Has diverse revenue streams in healthcare and warehousing, increasing addressable market (already have contracts with Amazon). 6. $437m backlog as of latest earning call. 7. Acquired Pangiam in 2023, a leader in facial recognition tech (CEO was former Director of Homeland Security). 8. The share price has been steadily rising over the past few months, but has yet to explode. Catalysts going forward Here we get a bit theoretical but I believe there is huge upside here for a few reasons: 1. Trump in office - more spending on defence and domestic security budgets (facial recognition is great for finding illegal immigrants hmmm). 2. It comes across as massively undervalued given it's current revenue and growth potential - trading at just over 3x forward revenue vs Palantir at 45x forward revenue. 3. Institutional ownership is rising fast - smart money is catching on for good reason. 4. Trend-wise, this stock fits the profile of something that will absolutely skyrocket on any positive news. AI deeptech, DoD contracts, growing revenue, and hugely overlooked. 5. It currently has 80 open positions on linkedin and with around 500 employees, this suggests they are investing hard for growth. Basically, this is your chance to get in early on the next PLTR. Positions: 2875 shares at $2.21 avg (europoor)
🚨Bag-holder DD alert: TWLO ALL IN with nvda sprinkles 🚨	Maybe there is a bag-holder bug going around... I hope my case isn't too bad. Tldr: I'm all in TWLO with nvda sprinkles because Twilio is an "AI pick and shovel" play that is being heavily slept on lol. AI is going to the moon. TWLO is also trading at a significant discount relative to its SaaS peers. Just look at its weekly chart. Durrrr. Also, I don't think I have to say anything about NVDA besides "buy the dip." Real TLDR at very bottom if you don't wanna read. Why am I being regarded? 1. I've been inspired by people like ElonIloveyou or whatever that guy's name is, and hopefully, if I hop on the wave quick enough, I can ride it to Valhalla :) 2. TWLO is SO cheap right now Although it fell fantastically... what goes down must always go up? - Current Price-to-Sales (P/S): 2.6x This is drastically lower than SaaS peers like Snowflake (25x) or ServiceNow (14x). For context, Twilio’s P/S ratio peaked at 20x plus during its high-growth phase in 2021. - Enterprise Value (EV) to Revenue: 3.8x This is also much lower than peers (Smartsheet at 5.6-5.7x, ServiceNow at 12.5-13.8x, ZoomInfo at 7.7x). 3. Although they aren't profitable (who tf is and who cares), their revenue growth is strong and growing and their & margins are healthy. - Revenue (TTM): $4.07 billion (a solid 10% YoY growth in a tough macro environment) - Gross margins are stabilizing at 50% - Cash Balance: $3.8 billion TWLO has also maintained very low debt compared to peers 4. TWLO has many tailwinds - Twilio’s recent initiatives include embedding generative AI and predictive analytics into its platforms. TWLO's most recent guidance signaled this advancement to be a significant revenue driver long term. - Twilio has implemented significant cost-cutting measures and achieved $150 million in annualized savings in Q3 - by focusing on core high-margin products while exiting non-core businesses (Prolly some more tech layoffs around the corner across the board). - Valuable collabs with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Salesforce enhance Twilio’s market reach. - The global CPaaS (Communications Platform as a Service) market is expected to grow from $12 billion in 2023 to $35 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of ~16%. Twilio dominates this space. - HEAVY INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY. Vanguard and BlackRock have increased their stakes. The big fish are confident in the TWLO turn aruond story. 5. The technical ANALysis says calls, I think. - TWLO has broken above its 200-day moving average - Key support levels: $102, $98.50, $92. - Resistance levels: $110, $115, and $120. - High open interest in near-term $110 and $115 calls, super DUPER low IV... maybe for a reason, but idk. TLDR: TWLO Is Primed for Upside because: - Twilio is heavily discounted on all valuation metrics, providing a high margin of safety. - AI-driven products and cost optimizations are setting the stage for sustained margin growth. - Technical and options data suggest growing institutional and retail interest. If you’re looking for a quality tech SaaS play at value-stock prices, Twilio deserves a spot on your radar. Shares and/or options will definitely hit, probably. I posted my positions. Not sure when I’ll sell…I will likely be the catalyst for the next leg up.
MRNA bounce incoming	Good evening degens. Last weekend I made a DD about NVDA breaking its upward trend line this week and selling off. The post was downvoted to hell and I was called regarded. Although I am highly regarded, that call out was not, and I was right. I have another play for next week I’d like to share. We all remember Moderna(MRNA) from the Covid era. The stock ran from $30 to $500 in about a year and a half. It has since been absolutely butt fucked into oblivion. Covid shot revenue is drying up and they are scrambling to find other sources. On top of that, RFK plans to basically put them out of business(if he gets approved, which I don’t think he will). Regardless, this play is not long term, although I do think this is a really good buy spot if you are hopeful about their long term business(which you should be). Also, the stock got an upgrade from hold to buy by HSBC with a $58 price target, and there were multiple articles pondering whether the stock was sold off enough to warrant buying here, all of which advise buying. These articles don’t mean shit, but it’s positive sentiment. Again, THIS IS A SHORT TERM PLAY. LIKE ONE WEEK, MAYBE TWO. Now for the charts. You can see on the daily it’s been in a solid downtrend since it had a little run in May. But I think that is coming to end this week, at least temporarily. The price double bottomed nicely at $35 last week. I’ve been looking for this level because this was resistance/support 4 different times back in 2020(long time ago, but in my brain it matters). I think this will be a hard number to crack, especially since selling seems to be exhausted. Those selling at this level are very likely selling for a large loss, and I think those that want to jump ship have already done so. On the daily, we are right on the trend line and the stock is at support. This is the EXACT same setup as NVDA last week, except NVDA was breaking down after a big run, and I expect MRNA to break up after a massive ass whooping. You can also see that volume has been much higher the past 2 weeks. I believe smart, wealthy buyers are stepping here and loading the boat, and some are buying short term call options for next week, which brings me to the put call ratio. The first graph is the put call ratio for this past week. You can see a slightly bullish lean with a ratio of 0.5, but there was a fair amount of put open interest at the 42,41, and 30 strikes, all of which expired worthless. The next graph is the open interest for next week. A ratio of 0.24 is extremely bullish, with 31,634 active call options and 7,536 puts. You do not have that kind of ratio on a stock that’s been sinking like the Titanic unless smart money thinks that the selling is done and the stock is due for a reversal. I was on the fence about this play until I looked at the option chain. I’m currently in the 12/6 45 calls. I’m hoping to see a clear break of the trend line monday or Tuesday on strong volume, and would love to see a test of $50 at some point. If i see a clear rejection at the trend line and it looks like it’ll test $35 again, I’ll stop out. I’m pretty confident in this one tho, about as confident as I was in the NVDA play. Best of luck if tailing, and this is not financial advice.
A Lot of Potential For $ZTO	Yes, funny lines go brrrrrrrr. Anyways, the YTD pattern thus far for $ZTO seems to indicate that buy/sell volume is cyclical, while maintaining a very nice positive slope for the bottoms. RSI(14) indicates it is oversold right now, and for every time this year that $ZTO has been oversold, the price of the shares will move back up from that point. Conversely, qhen the RSI is overbought, it goes down. The fact that this pattern can be observed is why I have bought options contracts at the strikes I did ($20-$22 strikes-ish, see in 2nd pic) $ZTO is a solid Chinese giant with 26 analyst ratings that give it a 92% buy score, with a target price of $21.20/share. The companies rolls in a profit of $1.2B, with sales of about $5.83B, and has very low to non-existent debt of 0.01 LTDebt/Eq and pays roughly a 5% dividend. It has a nice low, but positive P/E of 13, and EPS has been positive through the year. There isn't much to not like about this stock right now. If you're feeling frisky, buy some call options like I did, otherwise, this is a company I would buy shares outright for and wait for the next top to sell off at. I'm personally expecting a movement to the target price before January 17th. Thank you for reading.
I have reasons to believe that Recursion (RXRX) will became quite popular in the next month.	I believe that in the future, drugs will be highly customisable based on the patience’s health history. Based on your physiology, syndromes, and genetics, you may receive a drug that is well-suited for you and only you. How can you do that? First and foremost, you need data, huge amounts of it. We all know how generative and predictive models had advanced in the last year. It wasn’t in fact, until the launch of AlphaFold (by Google, whose team was recently awarded with the Chemistry Nobel Prize), that AI drug discovery became prominent. This open source model is used for molecular discovery. Again, would be nice if a company could: 1. Generate proprietary synthetic, good quality molecular data using models like AlphaFold. 2. Using this data to train models for drug discovery, reducing pipelines costs and times up to 50%. 3. Eventually, with the possibility of bringing the first AI-aided drug to the market. First two points have been achieved, and the company is Recursion. We may know them because NVIDIA invested 50m in them. Why then are at ATL? I think the answer is time. We all know there is no room for patience when it comes to money sometimes. Training and bringing such results may take years. However, I think another catalyst is coming. On 9. December, they will host a seminar for new readouts in one of their most well-known drugs in development, CDK7, for advance solid tumours (an inhibitor, which are currently none approved by the FDA). Now, I am not saying that they will cure cancer - that’s BS. But over the years converging to novel oncological solutions using AI? This is not the only drug they have (other 9 are in development). They have more than 60 petabytes of data. They combined forces with Exscientia recently, forming probably the most important powerhouse of AI-drug research. They are extremely active in the research field (see their presence in the upcoming NeuRIPS conference) or their new open dataset for Quantum Computing (OpenQDC). I started investing in IONQ in 2021 for a similar impression. Now I am getting the same vibes with this. I feel that a small catalyst will put this to fly, although the real potencial will come in the next 5-10 years. If they can bring the first AI drug to the market, this implodes. Of course, no financial advice. I’m long 800 shares and loading as much as I possibly can.
ERJ - This stock is challenging two behemoths and I like their chances	This is obviously not financial advice. I just like the stock and I want to talk about it. Embraer recently hit it's highest price in the last 10 years and it comes after a disastrous failed merger with Boeing in 2020. They spent years prepping the company for the merger and were left with their dicks hanging out when Boeing backed out last minute (Broke ass Boeing didn't have the money to go thru with the acquisition). It was the best thing that could've ever happened to them. With a new CEO and a new direction, Embraer is setting itself up to challenge both Boeing and Airbus in the near future. They're already the third largest commercial air aircraft manufacturer in the world and their market share only increases with the higher demand from Airlines for fuel efficient aircrafts and their growing Military and private jet segments. Embraer aircrafts will soon be 100% of American Airline's regional fleet and many other orders to come. Also, passengers absolutely love the experience of flying on an Embraer. Another interesting thing about Embraer is their track record on innovation. I'd recommend you guys researching and reading up on their EVE project. They're basically leading the field in the urban air mobility segment (basically taxi/uber but with planes) and it seems very promising. They are developing a small electric aircraft intended to be used for short urban travel (up to 100 KM /60 miles). That being said, I have to confess one the biggest reasons I like ERJ is because it would be a tremendous FUCK YOU to Boeing if they stole their share of the market. ERJ to the fucking moon. I'm absolutely new to the stock game and should not be trusted. But I do invite you guys to learn more about this company. If one of you regards want to take a look at their Q3 returns, here is the link: https://embraer.com/global/en/news?slug=1207478-earnings-results-3rd-quarter-2024 I also would recomend reading this interview from their CEO. He shares his vision for the future of the company and how they want to get there:https://fortune.com/2024/10/21/ceo-embraer-aerospace-company-rewrote-strategy-boeing-joint-venture-loss-francisco-gomes-neto/
$OKLO is Undervalued Relative to $SMR	It’s mind-boggling that Oklo trades at \~37% of NuScale’s market cap ($2.6B vs $6.9B). I strongly believe this valuation disparity will eventually correct. For context, if Oklo were valued similarly to NuScale, its share price could exceed $58/share. Oklo is positioned to lead the domestic nuclear sector; * Capital Efficiency: arguably the healthiest balance sheet amongst SMR projects, having enough cash on hand to fund through their initial builds, with a low burn rate. * Strong Leadership: executive leadership team with PhDs, Sam Altman as chairman, and a current board member slated to lead the Energy sector (Chris Wright.) Jake and Caroline (founders) are extremely passionate about the technology and opportunity, signaling to investors that they are keeping their equity for the long haul. * Proven Technology: EBR-II operated through decades of testing between 1964-1994 at INL, clearly demonstrating that the molten sodium fast reactor can operate reliably and efficiently overtime. * First-mover Advantage: Aurora is on target towards 2027 deployment at INL. Oklo has had the most regulatory engagement relative to other advanced reactor projects and have hired on a lot of former NRC regulatory staff. Also, unlike their competitors, they’ve already secured fuel from the DOE for their first Aurora build. * Commercialization Model: their ‘owner and operator’ model will allow them to scale rapidly and profitably alongside AI data centers throughout the 2030s. NRC whitepapers suggested that subsequent site reviews will take as little as 7 months, and Oklo will be able to debt finance project builds through future projected cash flows. They currently have 2.1GW in customer commitments, most notably from Equinix and Wyoming hyperscale. * Alternative Revenue Streams: Oklo has positioned itself to benefit from other revenue sources; uranium recycling to repurpose fuel from nuclear waste reserves, and the manufacturing of radioisotopes through the recently proposed acquisition of Atomic Alchemy. In contrast, NuScale is in a much worse position with regard to timelines: * NuScale doesn’t have any construction or operating licenses, they only have a design certification for their 12x50MW plant. In order for their customers to obtain those licenses, it requires a 24-36 month NRC review period that has not been initiated yet. This is why NuScale was projecting their first builds in early 2030s, which is years behind Oklo’s 2027 target and that’s probably being optimistic (as you’ll see below). * The reason why OKLO is so much further ahead is because they are submitting a COLA, which seeks approval for design, construction and operating, only taking them 24 months. Compare this to NuScale, where every individual customer needs to create and submit detailed plans, then wait 24-36 months for build and operating licenses. * It was a strategic choice by NuScale and others to only sell designs and not be an ‘owner and operator’ like Oklo. They would have to commit to the responsibility of building and running the reactors themselves, which does come with additional hurdles and liability, but allows for much faster scaling. * Putting aside those timelines, Nuscale’s 12x50MW plant was found to be not economically viable, so they are back to get a standard design approval for their 6x77MW plant. Considering this factor along with the licensing timelines, their 6x77MW will likely take until 2033 for customer deployment. Looking ahead, there is significant potential for an OpenAl partnership to materialize in the wake of all the demand that we've been seeing. Sam Altman recently visited DC to pitch lawmakers on the need for multiple 5GW data centers and pushed for the NRC to further streamline SMR approvals to meet those needs. If Oklo would be able to supply just a fraction OpenAl's future energy consumption, that would translate to a massive recurring revenue stream. Combine this with the fact that they are entering a more friendly regulatory environment, especially with Chris Wright heading the DOE under the Trump administration. TLDR: $SMR is far behind $OKLO in licensing timelines (by as much as 6+ years) and it does not appear to be reflected in the market. Aside from the obvious timeline advantage, Oklo stands to benefit from their capital efficiency, leadership team, first-mover advantage, commercialization model, and diversified revenue mix. If Oklo was trading at NuScale’s valuation (which I see as realistic), we’d be looking at over $58/share.
Why $SPY is the Real Thanksgiving Turkey 🦃	Alright degenerates, gather round the table because I’ve cooked up some sweet Thanksgiving DD, and no, it’s not cranberry sauce (but this could be just as saucy). Here’s the deal: Thanksgiving isn’t just about stuffing your face and awkwardly dodging Aunt Karen’s questions about why you’re "still single"—it’s also PRIME TIME for unsolicited stock and crypto pitches at family dinners. And that, my friends, is why Black Friday is not just for TVs at 80% off, but also for stupidly green markets. Here’s how it works: 1. Family Financial Influencers™: Grandpa brings up how he’s still holding Exxon since the 80s, your cousin Chad flexes his crypto portfolio (which is 90% down, but whatever), and your tech-savvy niece just learned about AI stocks and is suddenly Jim Cramer. Everyone at the table is buzzing with "hot picks" while passing the mashed potatoes. This is not financial advice… but it kinda is. 2. The FOMO Catalyst: Uncle Bob hears about "some stock with a weird ticker" (it’s ACHR, Bob, get with it) and thinks, “Why the hell am I not in this?” By the time the pumpkin pie rolls around, he’s downloading Robinhood. Multiply Uncle Bobs across America, and boom, retail frenzy ensues Friday morning. 3. Markets are Closed Thursday: This is key. People have 24 whole hours to stew in their newfound knowledge. By the time the market opens Friday, all that pent-up Thanksgiving YOLO energy explodes into buying pressure. Everyone’s a financial genius after 3 glasses of wine and a turkey coma. 4. Black Friday Greenery: You know how everyone shops like maniacs on Black Friday? Stocks are no different. This is the "stock market doorbuster effect." Everyone's piling into stocks like they’re $5 air fryers. And best of all, it’s also the gateway to the “Santa Claus rally.” As Christmas shopping kicks off, so might the stock market's annual tradition of going full holiday cheer mode. It’s like the market whispering, “You’ve been good this year, here’s a little green to celebrate.” 🎅📈 # My Prediction for Friday: * $SPY opens green (duh): Like your drunk uncle's karaoke rendition of "Sweet Caroline," it’s inevitable. * Tech stocks? Probably up because Aunt Susan heard about AI once on The Today Show and now thinks it’s the key to immortality (it is). * Crypto? Let’s be real—Cousin Chad is hyping Bitcoin like he’s got Satoshi on speed dial. It’s probably gonna pump harder than Grandma’s blood pressure when she finds out you brought store-bought pie. * Random meme stocks? Oh yeah, because someone’s cousin brought up “that one company with the short interest that shall not be mentioned.” * ACHR? $ACHR will be taking a flight (literally and figuratively) this Friday—WSB's favorite bird is ready to soar, and you degenerates are gonna love it. 🚁💸 TL;DR: Thanksgiving isn’t just about turkey—it’s a breeding ground for half-baked stock ideas. When Friday rolls around, we’re gonna see a tsunami of retail money hit the markets. $SPY gonna pop, and we’ll all be riding the gravy train. To the moon or the Wendy's dumpster, GODSPEED 🫡 Disclaimer: This is absolutely NOT financial advice—just a turkey-fueled theory for entertainment purposes only. If it somehow works, consider sharing some pumpkin pie and maybe a thank-you card. 🚀 Positions: TSLA 340C 12/20
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Due Diligence Report	Company Overview Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is a technology company specializing in the development of drone systems and solutions for military and commercial applications. In response to the United States renewing bans on DJI drones through legislation such as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the American Security Drone Act, Red Cat focuses on providing advanced, domestically produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and related technologies. The company's products aim to enhance drone operations while addressing national security concerns by supplying secure, American-made drone solutions. Through its subsidiaries, including Teal Drones and FlightWave, Red Cat offers products that support reconnaissance, surveillance, and other critical functions, delivering innovative solutions to defense organizations and industries requiring drone capabilities[.](https://imgur.com/a/8E9PtMl) Investment Thesis Jeff Thompson, CEO of Red Cat Holdings, has outlined significant developments that position the company for substantial growth and potential undervaluation in the market. The following points highlight the company's strategic advantages and growth prospects, incorporating recent developments from the company's earnings call and industry dynamics. # 1. Significant U.S. Army Contract SRR Program Win * Contract Award: Red Cat's subsidiary, Teal Drones, has been selected as the sole winner of the U.S. Army's Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) program, securing a contract to deliver 5,880 systems. Each system includes two drones and one controller, amounting to a total of 11,760 drones. * Contract Value: The average price of a system is around $45,000, depending on configuration. This implies a base contract value of approximately $264 million. * Competitive Edge: Teal Drones was chosen over better-funded competitors like Skydio, which has raised over $700 million in venture capital. Despite being an underdog, Teal's technological advancements and ability to meet the Army's stringent requirements led to this significant win. Additional Revenue Streams * Maintenance and Support: The contract includes provisions for repairs, training, and spare parts, which could increase the contract's value by an additional 50-70%. Historically, programs of record have seen significant revenue from spares and support over many years. * Expansion Potential: The SRR program's success positions Red Cat to secure additional contracts with other military branches, U.S. government agencies, and NATO allies. Program of Record Status * Simplified Procurement: Achieving Program of Record status streamlines the procurement process for other defense organizations, allowing them to purchase directly off the SRR contract. This designation enhances credibility and accelerates additional orders and long-term partnerships. # 2. Anticipated Growth and Revenue Projections Projected Revenues * Fiscal Year Projections: The company has provided guidance of $50-55 million for calendar year 2025, based on the initial phases of the SRR contract. * Potential Upside: With additional appropriations and the possibility of accelerated procurement, revenues could increase significantly. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes approximately $79.5 million in funding for the program line that supports SRR. * Long-Term Outlook: Including potential additional contracts and support services, annual revenues could reach around $100 million, excluding new contracts. Future Contracts * International Demand: NATO allies and other international partners have shown strong interest in the Black Widow drone, especially after the SRR program win. Some opportunities may eclipse the SRR program in size and value. * Expansion into Asia-Pacific: The company is also engaging with Asian allies, such as Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, the Philippines, and South Korea, to explore additional sales opportunities. * Replicator Initiative Participation: Red Cat is involved in the Department of Defense's Replicator program to mass-produce affordable, autonomous drones, potentially leading to larger future contracts. # 3. Valuation Compared to Industry Peers Market Valuation Discrepancy * Underappreciated Value: Despite securing a landmark contract and demonstrating significant growth potential, Red Cat's market valuation remains lower than private peers like Skydio, Anduril Industries, and Shield AI. Revenue Multiples * Industry Comparison: Competitors are trading at revenue multiples ranging from 18× to 28×. For instance: * Shield AI: Trading at 18.4× revenue. * Anduril Industries: Trading at 28× revenue. * Skydio: Recent valuation at $2.2 billion, trading at 22× revenue. * Red Cat's Multiple: Based on the company's guidance, Red Cat trades at a significantly lower multiple, suggesting substantial upside potential when aligning with industry standards. Upside Potential * Implied Valuation: Using projected revenues of $100 million and applying a conservative industry revenue multiple of 20×, Red Cat's implied market capitalization could be $2 billion. * Implied Stock Price: With approximately 75.5 million shares outstanding, this valuation translates to an implied stock price of approximately $26.49 per share. * Potential Upside: This represents an approximate 182% increase from the current stock price of $9.39. # 4. Strategic Capital Management No Immediate Capital Raise * Financial Flexibility: The company has filed a $100 million mixed securities shelf registration, allowing Red Cat to issue various types of securities over time. However, management has indicated no immediate plans to raise capital through equity offerings. * Utilizing Debt Instruments: Red Cat has room on its existing debt instrument and may use this for short-term capital needs, minimizing shareholder dilution. Minimal Capital Raise if Needed * Operational Continuity: Any potential capital raise would be around $10-15 million to ensure operational efficiency without significant dilution. Investor Assurance * Fiscal Responsibility: CEO Jeff Thompson emphasizes a prudent approach to capital management, focusing on maximizing shareholder value and achieving cash-flow-positive operations. # 5. Product Development and Expansion Opportunities Advanced Drone Focus * Teal's Black Widow Drone * Technological Advancements: The Black Widow is a 3-pound, folding, backpack-size drone capable of flying autonomously without GPS, using an internal map for navigation. * Electronic Warfare Resilience: It can operate without emitting radio frequencies for up to 40 minutes, making it less susceptible to detection and jamming—a critical advantage in modern warfare. * Features: Rugged, reliable, fully modular, quiet, long flight time and range, high-resolution cameras, stealth modes, onboard compute for AI and autonomy, capability to carry secondary payloads, and operation in electronic warfare environments. * Webb Controller * Innovative Design: Teal designed the Webb controller from scratch in less than five months. It is now the program of record controller for SRR. * User-Centric Features: Easy to use, comfortable to hold, modular, supports RF silent and stealth modes, uses the same battery as the drone, simplifying logistics. * Manufacturing Capabilities * High-Volume Production: Teal has designed the Black Widow and Webb for mass production, with the capacity to produce hundreds of systems per month in low-rate initial production (LRIP) and scaling to thousands per month by the end of next year. * Scalability: The manufacturing facility can increase output by adding shifts, including moving to two or three shifts and operating on weekends. Edge 130 Drone * FlightWave Acquisition: Red Cat's acquisition of FlightWave adds the Edge 130 drone to its portfolio. * Order Backlog: Over 200 orders for the Edge 130, expected to be delivered in Q1. * New Facility: The company is moving into a new factory to accommodate production needs. Mass Deployment Readiness * Scalability: Red Cat's drones are well-suited for large-scale deployment initiatives like the Replicator program and can meet the high demand seen in conflicts such as Ukraine. * Red Cat Futures Initiative * R&D Focus: The company is pursuing research and development opportunities to integrate capabilities with strategic partners, enhancing their product offerings and addressing future mission needs. * Software Ecosystem: Plans to offer a menu of configurations and software applications for different use cases, leveraging the onboard compute power for AI and autonomy. # 6. Increased Industry Recognition Media Coverage * National Attention: Red Cat and Teal Drones have received significant attention from major outlets, including features in The Wall Street Journal, highlighting their strategic importance and technological advancements. Investor Interest * Market Visibility: Heightened visibility is attracting major investment banks and potential investors, increasing the company's profile within the investment community. Blue UAS Listing * DIU Blue UAS Refresh Challenge: Red Cat has submitted the Black Widow and Edge 130 drones for inclusion in the Department of Defense's Blue UAS list. * Progress: Both drones have passed initial testing phases and are moving into the final stage, involving review of bill of materials and cybersecurity practices. # 7. Competitive Landscape and Industry Challenges Competitor Challenges * Skydio's Setbacks * Operational Failures: Skydio's drones underperformed in Ukraine, suffering from electronic warfare tactics that led to loss of control and drones going off course. * Loss of SRR Contract: Skydio lost out to Teal Drones in the SRR program, despite significant venture capital backing. * Other Competitors * AeroVironment's Switchblade Drones: Faced difficulties due to Russian jamming and GPS blackouts, impacting their reliability. * Cyberlux's Production Issues: Failed to meet production and delivery goals, affecting credibility. Red Cat's Competitive Edge * Technological Superiority: Red Cat's drones are designed to withstand electronic warfare, operate without GPS, and meet the rigorous requirements of modern battlefields. * Mission-Driven Approach: The company's focus on building drones specifically to meet the Army's needs contributed to winning the SRR contract. * Manufacturing Readiness: Red Cat's ability to mass-produce drones efficiently positions it favorably against competitors who may struggle with production scaling. # 8. Strategic Partnerships and Government Relations Advocacy and Policy Support * Government Engagement: Red Cat is actively working with the Department of Defense and Congress to ensure funding and support for expanding the SRR program. * NDAA Funding: The National Defense Authorization Act includes approximately $79.5 million for the SRR program line, with efforts to increase appropriations in future fiscal years. International Opportunities * NATO Allies: Multiple NATO countries are showing strong interest in adopting the Black Widow drone, with some potential contracts larger than the SRR program. * Asia-Pacific Expansion: Engagement with countries like Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, the Philippines, and South Korea opens additional markets. # 9. Management and Leadership Experienced Team * CEO Jeff Thompson: Emphasizes fiscal responsibility, strategic growth, and maximizing shareholder value. * George Matus: Founder of Teal Drones, instrumental in designing the Black Widow and Webb controller, focused on meeting Army requirements and soldier feedback. * Geoff Hitchcock: Brings decades of experience from previous roles at AeroVironment, contributing to securing programs of record and international expansion. Board of Directors * General Paul Funk II: Recently joined the board, providing valuable insights from his military experience, emphasizing the importance of kinetic capabilities and battlefield needs. Stock Price Potential Based on Updated Calculations * Current Market Capitalization: Approximately $480 million (reflecting recent stock performance). * Current Stock Price: $9.39 (as per the latest data). * Shares Outstanding: Approximately 75.5 million. * Projected Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue: $100 million (potentially higher with additional appropriations and contracts). * Industry Revenue Multiple: 20× annual revenue. Implied Valuation * Implied Market Capitalization: $100 million × 20 = $2 billion. * Implied Stock Price: $2 billion / 75.5 million shares = Approximately $26.49 per share. Potential Upside * Percentage Increase: (($26.49 - $9.39) / $9.39) × 100% = Approximately 182% increase. Considerations and Assumptions * Revenue Achievement: The company successfully achieves the projected revenues through the execution of the SRR contract and potential additional contracts with other military branches, government agencies, and international customers. * Market Valuation Alignment: The market values Red Cat at a 20× revenue multiple, consistent with industry peers. * Technological Leadership: Red Cat continues to innovate and maintain its technological edge over competitors. * Production Scaling: The company effectively scales production to meet demand, maintaining quality and efficiency. Conclusion Red Cat Holdings appears to be undervalued relative to its industry peers. With a significant U.S. Army contract, anticipated growth, and involvement in key defense initiatives, the company is strategically positioned for potential expansion. The high demand for reliable drones in modern conflicts, combined with competitors' shortcomings, amplifies Red Cat's market opportunity. The company's mission-driven approach, technological advancements, and manufacturing readiness provide a strong foundation for growth. Investors should consider these factors while also conducting their own due diligence. The discrepancy between Red Cat's current market valuation and that of its peers suggests substantial upside potential. Sources * Company Earnings Call Transcript (November 19, 2024) - [Link](https://ir.redcatholdings.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001554795-24-000306/rcat1120form8kexh99_1.htm) * The Wall Street Journal articles on drone industry developments and Red Cat Holdings. ([Article1](https://archive.is/o2wO3#selection-2491.0-2631.171))([Article2](https://archive.is/eBIVc#selection-2363.0-3025.212)) * Company Filings and Press Releases from Red Cat Holdings, Teal Drones, and competitors. * Statements from Industry Executives and Defense Officials. Disclosure of Positions * Personal Holdings: * 15 call options with a $10 strike price, purchased at $5.10 each, expiring on January 16, 2026. * 10 call options with a $7 strike price, purchased at $2.65 each, expiring on July 18, 2025. * Future Plans: I plan to dollar-cost average (DCA) into this position until the market aligns with my investment thesis. https://preview.redd.it/5fu0faz5za3e1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b3f2bcadce7f7778a791342deffbc2a69022dcb
$M; Taking Advantage of Turkey Day	Every year Macy's sponsors the massive Thanksgiving Day parade. If you look at the last several years, Macy's likes to increase its share price around November/December. Now let's not forget that single individual that hid over 100 million dollars. Macy's pushed their earnings date back because of that. They just can't wait to share how many tendies they've been cooking after they give us a great parade TLDR; Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade make $M pop off before their new 12/11 earnings date
MSTR: Don't Mistake Leverage for Genius [DD]	Microstrategy (MSTR) has a simple strategy of using various forms of debt to buy bitcoin. Regardless of your stance on Bitcoin, it begs the question: why invest in Microstrategy over Bitcoin? In the words of Steve Eisman, “They mistook leverage for genius.” Sure, Microstrategy is more leveraged than Bitcoin, but you can also leverage your bet on Bitcoin; take out margin, buy a leveraged instrument on an exchange, or, my favorite, taking an extra shift at Wendy's. So, let's compare the strategy. How would you do if you just bought leveraged Bitcoin instead of Microstrategy, and mimicked their strategy? I'll walk us through returns from the bottom of the BTC bear market on December 30, 2022, until today. On 30 December 2022, MSTR had a market capitalization of 1.63B. They held 132,500 bitcoin valued at $2.19B according to their Q4 earnings. https://preview.redd.it/dw36tu03oa3e1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=783ed81a61bb033f974783e70fe2c51899d6325f Bitcoin was around 16,529 on December 30 2022. https://preview.redd.it/acmcnyhhoa3e1.png?width=1278&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc1f50ffa72683d4fc448fe2ef98720ace19ff9 They also had total long term debt of $2.4B. https://preview.redd.it/k9zzwx15oa3e1.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=afa6a2fb9169bf7ec53956d8412f04af423e6316 Note, I'm excluding their current debt and assets from this, as I'm more interested in their BTC holdings vs. their long term liabilities (debt). Importantly, their core loss-leading operating business was generating about $30M a year of EBITDA. You could easily value this at Zero, but a generous 20X multiple of 30M EBITDA would be valued at around \~$600M https://preview.redd.it/rlnskdbaoa3e1.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3029489eb18d94bea7955fd3313210b3a2870eb So, you were buying a $600M operating business and $2.19B of bitcoin, minus $2.4B in debt, for 1.63B market cap. Assuming you could just sell the operating business to cover debt and focus on the value of the bitcoin, that would be $2.19B in bitcoin and $1.8B in debt. So net assets of 390M. Owning 2.19B in bitcoin on 390M of net assets is about 5.6x leverage. If you took the same 1.63B needed to buy all of MSTR’s market cap at the time and bought bitcoin at 5.6x leverage you would own $9.128B worth of BTC, or about 552,241 BTC at the December 30 2022 prices. With BTC at 93K today, you would have turned your $1.63B into $51.3B if you used 5.6x leveraged BTC, a 3,106% ROI. How did MSTR do over the same time period? https://preview.redd.it/cyc8kfjxoa3e1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0aac60559159b94bc2815e0bbba7ccfb7d5e5b6 Over the same duration, even with NAV premium expansion, MSTR has returned 2,452%. That's the difference between turning your 1.6B into 41B or 51B. A huge discrepancy! TLDR; Adjusting for leverage based on MSTR’s bitcoin holdings vs debt, you would have been better off just buying leveraged bitcoin. Position: I have about 50 cents of bitcoin still trapped in a Coinbase wallet I can't finish KYC for.
FNMA: Come back in 2026/2027	For those of us that have followed the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac trades since they went into conservatorship, my theory is that it's worth waiting until the end of 2026. Here's my thinking: * Political * Trump likely wants to privatize Fannie and Freddie. He looked into it his first time but the major things holding it back were capital reserves and political will. * With a Trump 2nd term, reducing the size of government is one of his biggest goals. In general, privatization is one of the most common ways of doing this. Given that Fannie and Freddie were taken over in 2008, this makes them a prime candidate to be re-privatized. * Republicans have the power in Congress at the moment. * Financial * At the time, based on the plan and rules they would need about $275-300B in reserves. They currently have about $165B in reserves. In recent years, they generate about $25B in net income per year. While that's about a $100B gap, they can also raise capital through private and public means (private investors, issuing stock). Why 2026? Pure speculation from here on: * Financial * In 2 years, they will be in a better capitalized position. They will likely have made about $50B more in income, thus having a total of about $215B in reserves and about a $50B gap in capitalization needed. Given their economics and situation, it could be a tempting investment for investors (particularly hedge funds). * Political * While this is in line, philosophically, with what Trump wants to do, it won't be a money saver and thus not likely a priority under say DOGE. This would be more symbolic and thus, in my thinking, is a lower priority. * I'm guessing 2024-2026 will be somewhat politically turbulent. This will be the time that Trump takes his biggest swings in terms of cuts to the government since the Republicans control Congress. They will expend political capital to make controversial changes. Therefore, they will focus on their highest priority changes. * We have to see what happens to Congress in the 2026 elections. In recent history, Congress has changed power from one political party to another (I believe in 2008 Dems won power under Obama, but then Republicans gained power in 2010). If the Dems win back the balance of power in 2 years, there may not be the political will to privatize. The Dems will sell a fear message around housing affordability, increased costs to borrowers so that they can retain power and control over an important political tool. Conclusion If I were to place odds, it feels feels like a latter-half Trump term initiative. And the best odds are only if Republicans retain power in both houses of Congress in order to pass a bill to make this happen. They're in healthy positions but a couple more years of making money will put them in a financial sweet spot for it to be supported by politicians. Even then, it's quite complex and likely is years in the making. But the stock will move if the possibility of privatization in the near term becomes visible. If Democrats take power back in Congress in 2026, this isn't a place I'd bent money. Same goes if they win the presidency in 2028. There's also a possibility that the government wants to make major changes to how these types of government-sponsored enterprises are structured, making privatization a much more complicated matter.
Kohl's (KSS) at $15 - Seriously Undervalued, Here's Why 🚀	Alright, gang, hear me out. I think (Kohls) KSS is an absolute gem right now, sitting at $15. Here's the case: 1. Franchise Group tried to buy KSS at $69 per share in April 2022 💸Yeah, you read that right. Franchise Group was willing to pay $69 for Kohl's not even two years ago. The deal was rejected (major facepalm move on Kohl's part), but it gives us a benchmark for what the market thought KSS was worth. Now, let’s take a moment to think about why Franchise Group was willing to pay that much... This wasn't some random offer. Kohls has value. It's just undervalued right now. 2. Oak Street Real Estate Deal – A $2B Real Estate Portfolio 🏢After that rejection, Oak Street stepped in and made an offer to buy a portion of Kohl's real estate for $2B. Wait—$2 billion for a portion of the real estate? At the current market cap of $1.65 billion, that tells you one thing: Kohl's real estate alone is worth more than the ENTIRE company. If we’re being conservative, the real estate portfolio could easily be worth $4-5 billion, which is well above where the stock is trading right now. So, the company’s assets are massively underpriced. 3. 32% Short Interest – Don’t need to tell you guys about potential, you know the drill. 4. Seasonal Play – December to January Pop Historically, Kohl’s stock tends to do well in the December to January timeframe, often gaining around 25-30%. Worst-case scenario, you’re breaking even based on the past 5 years if you’re holding through this period, but with the setup here, I’d bet on a solid upside. Buy in December, sell in January, rinse and repeat. TL;DR \* Franchise Group offered $69 for Kohl's in 2022. The stock is $15 today. \* Oak Street valued Kohl's real estate at $2B for a portion. That’s a huge asset undervaluation. \* 32% short interest \* December to January historically sees a 30% upside. So, what’s the risk at $15? This stock is undervalued and has additional catalysts. This isn’t financial advice, but this setup has "degenerate gains" written all over it. 🤘 Some data for you non-smooth brains below. 2018 Monday December 3rd - Low 62.25 Monday January 28th - High 70 Percentage - +13% 2019 Monday December 2nd - Low 45.53 Monday January 27th - High 45.62 Percentage - 0% 2020 Monday December 7th - Low 37.63 Monday February 1st - High 51 Percentage - +35% 2021 Monday December 6th - Low 48 Monday January 31st - High 60.84 Percentage - +27% 2022 Monday December 5th - Low 26.41 Monday January 30th - High 35.77 Percentage - +35% 2023Monday December 4th - Low 22.57 Monday January 29th - High 28.93 Percentage - +28% Position: https://preview.redd.it/vrs21tmu4a3e1.png?width=833&format=png&auto=webp&s=e635f7ec7b06b6ef569ca8f3c607d57e29fd2e16
Stock is Trading at All-Time Lows with a Sub-$2B Market Cap, $600M FCF, $4B in Assets, and Over 30% Short Interest— Absurd.	Apollo tried to fund a Kohls buyout in 2022 for 8B (nothing has changed drastically about its business between now and then). Let’s break down Kohl’s ($KSS). The stock is down 20% today, trading at an all-time low with a market cap under $2 billion. Meanwhile, the company generates $600 million in free cash flow (FCF) annually and owns $7 billion in real estate assets. with net assets of $4B. 1.The Business: Kohl’s still did $18 billion in sales for fiscal 2024, even without fully capitalizing on its Sephora partnership, which is boosting foot traffic in every store its been rolled out in (and they continue to roll out more) . 2. Valuation and Cash Flow: • Kohl’s generated $300 million in net income last fiscal year and nearly double that in free cash flow (FCF): $600 million. Based on this quarter they’ll likely land somewhere in a similar ball park. • Historically, Kohl’s has averaged $1 billion in FCF, meaning current results are already deeply discounted. And yet, the stock is trading at just 3x FCF. • The discrepancy between net income and FCF comes from non-cash expenses like depreciation on their $7 billion real estate portfolio. This isn’t “money burned”—it’s accounting noise. 3. Balance Sheet Strength: • Kohl’s has $14 billion in total assets/4B net, with a large portion being real estate. They own over 400 stores outright—hard assets that could generate significant cash in a liquidation scenario. • Liabilities are about 11B, Yes, they exist, but Kohl’s is far from distressed, with manageable debt relative to their assets and FCF generation. 4. Short Interest: • Over 30% of Kohl’s shares are shorted. Shorts betting on total collapse might not fully understand the cash generation and real estate value here. Any positive catalyst—a strategic pivot, real estate monetization, or improved retail sentiment. 5. CEO Departure: • Kohl’s just announced its CEO, Tom Kingsbury, is stepping down—news that likely contributed to today’s selloff. But here’s the kicker: Kingsbury was adamant about NOT selling Kohl’s assets. His departure reopens the possibility of a real estate monetization play, which could unlock billions in value. • Remember: Kohl’s rejected an $8 billion buyout offer funded by Apollo Global Management in 2022. That was four times today’s valuation. The Bottom Line: For a $2 billion market cap, you’re buying: • $7 billion in real estate assets (including 400+ owned stores). • $600 million annual FCF, even in a “bad” year. • A company that generates enough cash to pay an 11% dividend yield. If you told me I could buy $7 billion in hard assets (4B net of liabilities) and $600 million in annual cash flow for under $2 billion, I’d say yes every time. That’s Kohl’s today. This isn’t a growth story—it’s a cash-and-assets story. You’re betting that the business, even if it declines slowly, will return far more than its current valuation. Or that someone with deep pockets will take notice and bid. Either way, this valuation is ridiculous. Shorts, good luck. https://preview.redd.it/m4b24scbd93e1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=b764753e554ed3a871bce3b503a49805d84f34ad
🔋 Bloom Energy’s 95% Run: The Hidden Energy Play Behind AI Data Centers	Bloom Energy (BE) surged 59% on Nov 15 and is now up 95%. While it’s unclear if the rally will pause or continue—and you should be mindful that, as I just said, she has already soared 95%—this post explores why this move is more than a short-term trend, with highly significant catalysts on the horizon. [Bloom Energy servers](https://preview.redd.it/j6j1akk2x43e1.jpg?width=3912&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb781f61de55753b16b0ff00433654d603615d53) AI is booming, and it’s not a fad. Have you heard of NVDA? Of course you have, and you know the demand for its semiconductors is insane. Here are key insights from last Wednesday’s NVDA earnings call: * Hopper demand is exceptional. * Blackwell demand is staggering. * NVDA is racing to scale supply to meet the incredible demand. * The next wave of AI is Enterprise AI and Industrial AI. \----- AI isn’t just the future—it’s here and scaling rapidly. These semiconductors are being used to build advanced data centers. But to turn on these data centers, you cannot just plug all that processing power into the wall outlet. They require specialized power setups from their local energy utility. Connecting a data center to the grid requires major upgrades due to their immense energy demands and need for reliability: Dedicated Substations: Data centers need substations with high-capacity transformers and switchgear to step down grid power. Building or upgrading a substation can take 2–3 years due to permitting, engineering, and construction delays. Transmission Line Upgrades: High-voltage lines may need new installations, conductor upgrades, or pole reinforcements, often delayed by land acquisition, environmental reviews, and public opposition. Distribution Network Enhancements: Local networks require upgrades like redundant feeders, voltage regulators, and new lines to ensure stable delivery from substations to data centers. Redundancy and Reliability: To meet 99.999% uptime demands, utilities need to build costly redundant systems, including backup transmission lines and ring configurations, to eliminate single points of failure. Furthermore, data centers consume immense amounts of electricity, often beyond what utilities can supply. Slow by nature, utilities are vastly unprepared for the AI-driven demand surge, and they are struggling to respond. Besides, upgrading grid infrastructure requires billions of dollars and takes years, with delays from zoning, public consultations, and environmental reviews. As a result, companies that want to develop their data centers face growing waiting lists for power, risking their competitive edge in an industry where delays of even months can be critical. This isn’t hypothetical—it’s happening now. I’ve included several sources and citations at the end. \----- Enter Bloom Energy ($BE), which sells on-site power generators that can run data centers without relying on the grid—a proven solution used for years in hospitals, factories, and off-grid installations. On Nov 14 (after-hours), American Electric Power (AEP), a major utility that operates in 11 states and is struggling to meet data center energy demands, struck a deal with Bloom Energy. Instead of making clients wait years or relocate, AEP will offer Bloom’s energy servers, enabling data centers to power up in months, not years, and stay competitive. This is a game-changer for Bloom Energy. They’ve shifted from selling servers to individual clients to partnering with utility giant AEP—a move from retail to wholesale. Bloom’s technology isn’t new, but the AEP deal marks a leap to scalable, utility-scale partnerships, unlocking massive demand. \----- A company wanting to develop a data center: “I need energy for my data center!” AEP: “We’ll be able to accommodate you until mid-2027. You can wait, move to a location where the grid is already upgraded (but you need to hurry because those spaces are limited), or we can install these Bloom Energy servers and you’ll have your energy in 90 days.” For those who grasp this jump from retail to wholesale, the opportunity is clear. Careful, though. My entry was over a week ago, and she has been running a lot already. However, every new AEP order or, fingers crossed, any other major utility signing a new agreement with Bloom Energy? Wink emoji. Do your own research, though. And for those who want to dive deeper into the details, here are the sources I used to inform my play: [AEP press release](https://www.aep.com/news/releases/read/9866/AEP-Leveraging-Fuel-Cell-Technology-to-Power-Data-Center-Growth) [McKinsey report on how data centers and AI rely on the availability of electric power](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/private-capital/our-insights/how-data-centers-and-the-energy-sector-can-sate-ais-hunger-for-power) [Deep dive where my play came from](https://youtu.be/puCqvzGWqDw) [Reuters article on strong growth in new data center demand](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/american-electric-power-beats-q2-profit-estimates-data-center-demand-boost-2024-07-30/) [Bloom Energy & AI data centers](https://youtu.be/mzg301k0SDY) Personally, I’m playing with shares ($18.24, and I'm posting now because I was BanBet-banned last week). And again, she could keep running north, but be careful. However, this stock is something you should keep on a watchlist. \----- TL;DR: Bloom Energy (BE) surged 59% after a deal with AEP, a major utility struggling to meet energy demands from AI-driven data centers. BE’s on-site energy servers bypass the grid, enabling data centers to power up in months instead of years. This shifts BE from retail to wholesale, unlocking massive potential. Sources right above if you want to dive deeper.
DOJ doesn't understand software and why GOOGL is an obvious play	so the government want to split Chrome off Google? this is a win win scenario for anyone who picks up any Google stock and Google itself: 1. They do split it. Google goes about it's business making billions and now Chrome belongs to someone else or in its own thing. Google can just launch a new browser off Chromium open source project. Heck even if somehow they are forbidden from ever launching a browser again they can get away influencing the Chrome foundation or whatever like they've done with Mozilla through partnership/donations. It's not like their core business is Chrome anyways. Same deal goes with Android they can fork or influence even post split. Maybe if they took YouTube they'd be hit badly but still carry on making dough off search alone. 2. They don't split it. Biz as usual but you just got in a good entry point. I plan keep long on GOOGL but for now this is all I can afford Positions: https://imgur.com/nDoOPpG
RedCat DD	I’m back with the RedCat DD that I promised. RedCat is an American Drone company that, as of last week, has been chosen as the sole provider of small, rucksack portable, attritable drones bringing surveillance and strike capabilities, to none other than the United States Army. Through a program of record initiated 5 years ago, Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR), the US Army was able to test, research, evaluate and compare capabilities/limitations of drones from 37 companies including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and the “reigning champion” from SRR tranche 1, Skydio. They also fielded these drones in Ukraine to determine resistance to electronic warfare and signal jamming in combat against a modernized and “competent” near peer adversary. Needless to say, RedCat provided a far superior drone, purpose built for the warfighter and was subsequently chosen as the contract winner. “Oh it’s one little Army contract for around 12,000 drones, how is that important?” Great question, looks like not everyone in this sub rides the short bus to school. As mentioned previously, SRR testing began in 2018. Now who was paying attention to something other than the big red line that was your portfolio in 2022? Just 4 years after the Army identified the potential viability of drones in wartime? Yep, you got it. Russia invaded Ukraine. Here’s a sticker for you to add to your helmet. If you haven't been watching the drone footage from the Ukrainian war, you should probably get on that. Drones have completely changed the battlefield. Ukrainian forces are currently using/losing at LEAST 10,000 drones a month, with some 30,000+ drones in the air everyday. To reiterate, 5 years ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine, before drones were proven in combat, before Ukraine was burning through 10,000 a month to fight one of our near peers, the Army decided they would like about 12,000. Do the math. Do you believe the largest and most powerful land force on Earth would order 2 weeks worth of drones and call it good? You know the answer to this question. Why don’t you have free medical care? Why do you have 100k in student loans? Why will an ambulance ride bankrupt you? Fantastic, you’re right again. 13.3% of the US Federal budget goes straight to the DOD. A cool $820 billion. I’m sure you’re losing focus but I’m certain your wife’s boyfriend can keep her company for a little bit longer. Now add this one up. If you are engaged in conflict with another world power, where do you want to put your money? Do you want to buy the 50k drone that can target anything from the sky, completely unmanned, or do you want to spend 10 million on a single M1 Abrams tank that will take a critical hit from an FPV attack drone, killing the entire crew? Let me say this another way. You are America and will stop at nothing to maintain your position as the superior global superpower. Are you buying 5 tanks or 1,000 drones? 1,300 drones or a single F-18? 13,000 drones or 10 F-18’s? How about raising taxes and buying both. I am not the Secretary of Defense but I can assume an intricate cost benefit analysis is being conducted by US military leadership. In the very near future, the DOD will be acquiring more than 12,000 drones, a whole lot more. In case you aren’t aware, the US Army is America’s largest branch of the armed forces. This means they have more money to R&D than their counterparts. With some second level thinking you can understand this to mean if another branch of the military can wait for a wealthier branch to spend millions/billions finding the best product, and buy it after they do, they’ll do exactly that. This reality extends beyond the American DOD. How about Australia? Here’s a start. https://ir.redcatholdings.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/158/red-cat-to-supply-flightwave-edge-130-blue-systems-to-royal-australian-navy “Red Cat to Supply FlightWave Edge 130 Blue Systems to Royal Australian Navy” I hypothesize allied armed forces have been patiently awaiting the conclusion of big Army’s testing to determine where they will also be sourcing their combat drones. SRR is really only the beginning. For those interested in semiconductor plays that also understand the importance of Taiwan, you might want to give these articles a read. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-09/news/us-supply-taiwan-attack-drones https://news.usni.org/2024/07/01/hellscape-swarms-could-be-as-cost-effective-taiwan-defense-says-report The future of warfare is unmanned systems fighting other unmanned systems. Why did we leave Vietnam? Unpopularity back home, moms had enough of losing their sons. How long can America sustain a war outspending USD? When America’s cost of war is cheap drones instead of billions and American lives, we might just deter our adversaries in a way they don’t want to engage us anyways. That leads me to the next point. Drones as a deterrence factor. How many drones operating autonomously in a swarm is enough? How many does the entire DOD need on hand? How many do our allies want? 100,000? 200,000? A million? How many combat drones do you speculate that America’s military industrial complex wants on hand? I can’t give you a definitive answer so unfortunately you’ll have to take a quick break from licking that window and use your own reasoning skills. I can say, however, that I’m pretty confident about where they will be sourcing these drones. Now, enough “market” analysis. Let’s talk about some numbers. u/CynicalMelody was kind enough to post this on a previous post of mine the other day. “Here is my prediction Stock Price Potential Based on Updated Calculations Current Market Capitalization: $708.997 million Current Stock Price: $9.39 Shares Outstanding: Approximately 75.5 million Projected Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue: $100 million Industry Revenue Multiple: 20× annual revenue Implied Valuation: Implied Market Capitalization: $100 million × 20 = $2 billion Implied Stock Price: $2 billion / 75.5 million shares = Approximately $26.49 per share Potential Upside: (($26.49 - $9.39) / $9.39) × 100% = Approximately 182% increase” This analysis does not include what will be awarded in the future. The stock market is forward looking. Now look forward so you can get an edge. The US drone industry is currently estimated to be worth around 3.94B, expected to increase to 8.65B by 2034. https://www.precedenceresearch.com/military-drones-market#:~:text=Military%20Drones%20Market%20Size%2C%20Share,7.95%25%20between%202024%20and%202034 Sure maybe the American drone industry will only double over the next 10 years, the thing is, all bets are off if/when we go to war. Where will that money go? If you believe global tensions are rising and war is imminent, where is your capital going to be safest? This is your opportunity to build some conviction. How will the US stock market hold up if we go to war? Individual companies? How about if we don’t? Answer those same questions but with RedCat. We get sucked in and large scale war begins, VOO -25%, RCAT +60%. Place your bets. By current business prospects, RCAT is criminally undervalued. It should have traded at $12 the moment the SRR winner was announced. Also, is there a more reliable source of consistent payments/business than providing services to the US military/government? This image was not my work, but here is some price modeling data. If you can buy cheaper than $12, you’re getting a deal. If you understand the gravity of the SRR win, there is much more to follow. This is a chance to buy something that you would hold for a year. Most of yall have never heard the word “profits” so taxes isn’t a problem for you, but for the 6 people in here that aren’t regarded, this is a play you can hold for a year and pay long term capital gains on your gains. Buy calls, exercise them or sell them, buy shares keep them, whatever you wanna do. This company is promising with a bright future. I do apologize that I didn’t post this earlier. I have been working with the mods to get this posted as soon as it was allowed. (Until a few days ago it’s been under 500M market cap. Wanted and tried to post DD back in July) Ask your questions and I’ll do the best I can to answer them. Positions: 400,000 shares 700 RCAT 1C’s Jan 2025 800 RCAT 2C’s Jan 2025 1,700 RCAT 3C’s Jan 2025 I will also be exercising my calls at the start of the year.
$APP - McLovin AppLovin	AppLovin is a mobile technology company that provides a comprehensive suite of solutions to help businesses, particularly mobile app developers, grow and monetize their products. Their tools connect with 1.4 billion through mobile, TV, and other platforms. They support mobile ads through an AI/ML process to design and place ads. They make 350+ of their own apps that bring profit through in-app purchases and ads, but also is a goldmine of data that feeds the AI/ML platforms. YTD: +764.20% 3 months: +277.96% 1 month: +108.24% 1 week: +15.76% Market cap is $111 billion. I own 3.65 shares, i’m a dork, but their line chart is consistently green. I'll keep my $1200 in there and pretend to be a big boy. Currently at $338.08 and Benzinga sets the target at $400. Q3 2024 revenue of $1.2 billion, up 38.64% year-over-year. Last 12 month revenue of $4.29 billion, a 41.48% increase year-over-year. Competitor Unity Software had Q3 2024 revenue of $446.52 million, down 17.95% year-over-year. Unity Software’s last 12 months revenue at $1.97 billion, a 3.13% decrease year-over-year. Q4 2024 financials will be presented on February 11, 2025. The company's core offerings can be divided into three main segments: Creative Agency, Software, and Apps. SparkLabs helps design and launch ads for mobile apps and games. This includes playable ads, video ads, and ads on connected TVs. This has helped some companies into the #1 spot in the App Store and Google Play Store. AI has helped to generate ads as well, making the process more efficient - they claim it has saved 1600 hours of work. Software makes up 56% of revenue. This includes AppDiscovery, which launched in 2023 and is an AI-powered tool to match advertisers with publishers. ‘MAX’ takes an advertisers inventory and runs a real-time competitive auction to place ads in apps. ‘Adjust’ is a SaaS for marketing companies to track stats, keeping them in the AppLovin network to see growth and drive them back for the next campaign. These are all run on AppLovin’s AXON ML tool and App Graph for data collection/analysis. AppLovin has made over 350 free-to-play apps. There is a gain for in-app purchases and ads, but also collects data to make their AI/ML tech even better. Their software has been part of multiple #1 apps, accelerated growth into global top 10 rankings, and helped increase installs. This is across games from multiple publishers, shopping, media, finance, and health & fitness. This includes Experian, DealDash, Enerjoy’s ShutEye app, SmartNews, and gaming studios like ABI Studio, Rollic, Say Games, and Azur Games. Asked Perplexity to write this DD: https://preview.redd.it/dk7ku2an923e1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1caf68da39d5c7c2f14b84c41c288cbba3dd8cd
Archer (ACHR): Over $6 and Counting—The Journey is Far from Over 🚀	Alright everbody, let’s talk about where we’re at with ACHR: Since my first post back in October, Archer has climbed over 100% and now sits above $6. The steep incline has been exciting, but the journey is far from over. Here’s a look at what’s been happening. We’ve got major news, strong forecasts, and institutional backing that keep this play looking solid. Let me break it down: Analyst Price Target are Bullish Analysts are projecting an average price target of $9.69, with some forecasts reaching as high as $13.12. New coverage from Needham just slapped a Buy rating on it. The trajectory? Upward. 381 Funds are on Board Institutional interest in ACHR is growing, with 381 funds now holding positions—up 8.55% last quarter. Total shares owned by institutions increased by over 10%, showing confidence in Archer’s growth. Big money sees the potential. Insider Activity & Growing Buzz Insider transactions over the past 12 months show strong confidence from within the company: * 7 insider buys totaling 28.7M shares, with only 3 sells amounting to 3.2M shares. * In the last 6 months alone, there were 3 insider buys totaling over 20M shares. This aligns with the momentum we’ve seen recently, with a flood of news, analyst ratings, and community discussions driving ACHR into the spotlight. The buzz isn’t just from the outside, people on the inside clearly see the potential too. Major NYC News Archer’s partner Skyports Infrastructure and Groupe ADP have been selected to operate the Downtown Manhattan Heliport, a key move toward bringing electric air taxis to NYC. Together with United Airlines, the plan is to electrify the heliport and introduce quieter, cleaner, and more affordable urban air mobility for New Yorkers. This is a massive step forward. Global Expansion & Commercialization Strategy Archer’s plans go beyond the U.S., they’re actively positioning themselves for deployment in the Middle East, Asia, and India, with key partnerships already in place. Their three-step commercialization strategy is set to begin as early as next year: 1. Piloted demonstration flights in key markets. 2. Market survey trips carrying passengers on initial air taxi routes. 3. Full-scale commercial operations post-certification. India, with its large urban markets, is shaping up to be one of Archer’s biggest opportunities, supported by their partnership with InterGlobe Enterprises. Production Facility Nearing Completion Archer’s new manufacturing facility is set to open in the coming weeks. This factory will begin producing type-design aircraft next year, ramping up to a production rate of two aircraft per month by the end of 2025, with plans to scale even further in 2026. This marks a significant step toward real-world operations and commercial readiness. The Journey Continues For those already in, congrats on riding this wave. For those still watching, it’s not too late. After such a strong climb, while some might expect a pullback, in my view, consolidations aren’t guaranteed. Momentum has been holding steady, and the recent news flow has only strengthened the outlook. Even if there are minor dips, there’s no reason to get nervous. Let the doubters and short sellers be the ones sweating it out and reaching for the aspirin. With upcoming milestones like pilot flights and the manufacturing facility launch, the short-term and long-term potential both look strong. TL;DR: ACHR is up over 100% but still has room to run. NYC, institutional backing, and bullish price targets are lining up to make this a big winner. The ride isn’t over yet, join if you’re ready to see what’s next. 🚀 Wishing everyone a great Thanksgiving and hoping for some gains this week to cover an extra turkey or two! 🦃 (Not financial advice. Always do your own research and make decisions that work best for you!)
Nuclear Power, Crypto, and Monday Moves	Hello, I am back to talk more about SMR, UEC, and now MSTR. When I posted about SMR a week or two ago several people said that it was a bad investment as it has already grown 600+ percent this year. Look at where the stock is now. After recent statements by the upcoming USA administration I think I have seen more tickers with potential to have short term gains as well as long plays. SMR has recently hit 30 dollars and will continue to peak I believe around 33 as a resistance after watching its chart for sometime. I believed that it would drop in price so I sold my positions at 27 dollars hoping to repurchase at 24. It is still at 28. I am going to go in with calls on this one. I believe it will increase in price steadily with sharp early market peaks. Pay attention to the volume. If you can scalp a cheap mid jan put at a reasonable 20 something dollar range I believe it will be wise. People will be fearful of the oil energy bro in office but the dude is pro nuclear. The bitcoin talk about us being the capital is real. Thats why these shitcoins scammers are at an all time high look at tiktok and look at instagram reels. The normies believe this is their entry to crypto but XMR x UDC collab will most likely happen in the next 2 years so get ready for that one. BitCoin == next gold for backing the XDR == cash dollar. If trump wants to mine collect and purchase bitcoin this will innevitably be NuScales in for the government contracts as in its already its baby. UEC is still a play in the fact that it will continue to go up. Most likely based off my analysis it will hit 9.35 by christmas and hit an 8$-7.87 price point before the administration takes charge. Domestic production is back and that applies to UEC who is making moves with plans they cant share with you right now. MSTR is like 4x bitcoin which means its going to explode up or down with price. I think the silkroad is going to comeback and take its toll on bitcoins value. When trump is talking about making us the capital for crypto that means the complete end of crypto privacy. Not everyone was busted. Drug dealers, cartels, government bribes, and illegal deals. They are all apart of its rise and its current holdings. They will sell off before the boom causing a tanking of MSTR's price. I too believe short term it will explode in value in the ROCKET direction. But normies buying at 87k 90k 95k will have a mass sell off as well when it hits 110-115k as that is a logical smooth brain move to buy a house. They don't care about cycles or the bitcoin rainbow. This isn't a scam or a self plug. Everything I am saying is what I am going to play and not financial advice. But I would love to have a discussion with you guys while I play dota. IDK if I can link the the stream or not but I will be looking at charts and going over stories between matches and during games and death debating these plays. I have a lot to say about gold and a few recent success stories to show for my DD. Just let me know and Ill tell you my username so we can talk about these moves. https://preview.redd.it/57c7p2xkwy2e1.jpg?width=799&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ccc82b35b832b9aecde240afa66543509f31621a https://preview.redd.it/0mirq06lwy2e1.jpg?width=799&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9fd38c8330561f58e6394f13e8016fb45c9fc848 https://preview.redd.it/vvbphhglwy2e1.jpg?width=799&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=283ccaa015fa5bae3be613f9bf6c70414574d4fd
PLTR: They said the quiet part out loud [DD]	On November 15, 2024, PLTR's board member Alex Moore tweeted, >We are moving PalantirTech to Nasdaq because it will force billions in ETF buying and deliver 'tendies' to our retail investors. Player haters be aware that we've been hated for decades (plural). Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following. Immediately afterwards, he deleted his tweet. At first glance, the statement seems harmless, and even obvious. Companies are added/removed from passive indexes every day, and it's not a crime to want to deliver shareholder returns. There's no problem with boasting about passive index inclusion. It doesn't affect the fundamental business anyway. Right? I think otherwise. Alex Moore said Palantir's quiet part out loud. I contend that this has been Palantir's gameplan since day one. The stock's performance, ridiculous valuation, and mania all points back to one fundamental goal of the company's management: manipulating stock market indexes to juice valuation and provide liquidity for insider selling. The Evidence (s/o Mike Green): Part 1: The Listing Companies generally list via a direct listing, traditional IPO, or SPAC. For a company the size of PLTR, a SPAC was out of the question. They had to choose between an IPO and direct listing. Let's take a look at both. Traditional IPO: Typically involves investment banks underwriting the deal, setting a price, and selling shares to institutional investors like mutual funds or hedge funds. Importantly, these shares are not part of the stock's free float, and insiders must dilute themselves in order to create new shares to sell on the public market. Direct Listing: In a direct listing, a company offers existing shares directly to the public without issuing new shares or raising capital. This avoids traditional IPO underwriters (investment bank). The free float is immediately determined by shares held by insiders available to sell. Palantir chose this route. Takeaway: In a direct listing, all existing shares held by insiders, employees, and early investors become eligible for public trading immediately. There is no lock-up period (common in traditional IPOs, where insiders are restricted from selling shares for 6–12 months). This approach ensures a larger float right from the start, as insiders can sell their shares directly on the public market if they choose, increasing the number of shares available for trading. Why is this important? Palantir almost immediately qualified for index inclusion upon its first day of listing. Vanguard and others were forced to buy shares on the first week of listing because Palantir met the necessary requirements for most broad market indexes: 1. Market Cap - This is self explanatory, Palantir began listing at \~17B market cap, rendering it eligible for most indexes. 2. Free Float - Indexes are not just weighted by a company's market cap. The S&P500, for example, uses Float-Adjusted Market Cap, adjusting the company’s market capitalization based on its free float to determine its weight in the index. Float-Adjusted Market Cap=Share Price×Free Float Shares 3. Liquidity - Also a no brainer, considering the number of shares immediately available for the public, and the hype around the stock. It doesn't take a genius to see it. As insiders sell shares, the “effective float” rose, requiring extra purchases from index providers, and helping Palantir insiders exit. [Vanguard = Liquidity ](https://preview.redd.it/630t26f5vy2e1.jpg?width=801&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b54299e2988d9b42437fe9eb7d9db3f407cf904b) Part 2: Buying a Seat at the Table 2021-2022 was tough for Palantir. The index game was faltering as net income and revenue growth lagged. This threatened their ultimate goal of S&P500 + Nasdaq 100 inclusion. They had the market cap, if they could only find a way to juice their revenue in a profitable way to get themselves over the inclusion requirements! So, they did what any reasonable company in this situation would do, and bought customers. Financing customer growth by [investing roughly $450MM in over two dozen SPACs](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-29/palantir-failed-to-spot-pattern-in-spac-debacle), Palantir was basically [buying revenue.](https://www.newcomer.co/p/is-palantir-buying-revenue) The process was straightforward: 1. PLTR would invest in the SPAC and assume a significant controlling interest 2. PLTR would use the SPAC's funds to purchase PLTR services 3. Any operating losses of the SPAC company could be carefully hidden from PLTR's reporting. [Not part of operating income!](https://preview.redd.it/ydfikqj6vy2e1.jpg?width=1254&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19a6a7d123b4cf926e5dd07b1ce374ac30061bb2) And, soon enough, PLTR was (technically) reporting profitability by GAAP standards! With the company now profitable, in 2024 it became eligible for SP500 inclusion, and was included in September 2024, coinciding with a face-melting rally. Part 3: The Next Frontier To wind out its strategy, Palantir wants to maximize the benefits of index inclusion, capped off by its relisting to Nasdaq to position itself for entry into the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). The timing of the move is also suspect. The index’s modified market cap weighting system limits the concentration of its top three constituents, disproportionately favoring mid-tier companies ranked between #10 and #30 in market cap—exactly where Palantir has maneuvered itself. This move is no coincidence. Palantir’s ownership by the big three institutional investors—Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street—has soared to an impressive 22.23%, surpassing even tech giants like Microsoft (20.5%), Apple (20.0%), and NVIDIA (20.17%). For a company that only went public in Q4-2020, this level of institutional backing is ridiculous for a company of this size. And the insiders? They're loving the exit liquidity. https://preview.redd.it/2ovaqp09vy2e1.jpg?width=1456&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c9e88a0d96b9b0e6402d50835979bd1d34530e2 In fact, they've been dumping into the institutions (and retail) this whole time: https://preview.redd.it/2p4k1qx7vy2e1.png?width=1022&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b0be708d61438cdcf2e779d1216cd3e9696140a "Show me the incentive, and I will tell you the outcome." Institutional shareholders through indexes are the easiest exit liquidity in the world for insiders. They're brainless, rules-based buyers. And, once the entire world owns an equal share of your company, priced at 50x sales, and you've dumped most of your shares, you could give a fuck less what the market ultimately does with your stock! Of course, index inclusion for this stock has coincided with a complete disconnect from the fundamentals. The net \~3B of projected inflows from the QQQ have contributed about 40-50B of market cap growth in just the past few weeks. Overall, I think there's huge problems with how companies are intentionally trying to juice themselves into indexes, knowing it's full of bloat and thoughtless exit liquidity. PLTR is just one of many, and they're giving a master class in index manipulation as we speak. TL;DR: The recent PLTR tweet about joining the QQQ was a deeper insight into strategic yet dubious decisions the company has made for years in order to increase institutional ownership to fund insider selling and pump the stock outside of business fundamentals.
$MARA DD - The MaraStrategy 💊	📢Preface Disclaimer: I use a cringe amount of emoji 🫣 also the following is not not financial advice. If you lose money that's too bad, you gain a life lesson. Illiterate? => Scroll to the bottom, follow instructions 👇 Disclosure: As of Nov 22nd I have \~8k in various $MARA calls + some additional funds to buy $MARA stock on dips. I will instantly buy more if Fred Thiel keeps employing the "MaraStrategy" Most of this DD focuses on $MARA compared to $MSTR, I compared multiple tickers before determining $MARA was the best play. With that out of the way, lets dive into the always sunny bull case for $MARA \--- 💊MaraStrategy For this section please humor me by assuming it is near impossible for $BTC to go down and it just continues going up. Think: 'sToNkS oNlY gO uP' type shit 😌 Thanks to the pioneers and investors in MicroStrategy an asymmetrical opportunity has presented itself. $MARA or Marathon Digital Holdings mines bitcoin and holds bitcoin, a shit-ton of it. In fact its the largest mining company by market cap with the largest $BTC holdings after $MSTR. The "MaraStrategy" (codename: 💊) is an ambitious prospect of acquiring, holding and utilizing $BTC. Basically borrowing money against its holdings to buy $BTC and in turn providing that investment opportunity to its shareholders. $MSTR CEO Michael Saylor has derived this creative business model that is pushing both industry and the world at large into securing $BTC holdings. A man like that is hard to find but I can't get him off my mind, highly recommend listening to his vision for bitcoin from interviews on youtube. $MARA happens to be in the best position to replicate what $MSTR is doing. \- They have plenty of expertise and experience within the sector. \- A forward thinking CEO (s/o Fred👋) who has already began executing the MicroStrategy model. \- One of the strongest mining operations. \- Fresh infrastructure investment prepped for halving. \- A growing reputation of HODLing $BTC. So why not just buy $MSTR? "They were first!" They will come out on top... right? Yes and no. They are currently utilizing their $BTC holdings better than anyone else. However, the $BTC value per share would be reduced if everyone just kept buying in, driving it higher as shares are diluted. $MSTR still has to pay their "debts" over time (which is crucial because $BTC takes time to go up \[I'm simplifying this slightly\]). Plus their option premiums are pricey 😤 We are starting to see other companies switching from purely fiat currency to diversified holdings with $BTC, daily. To be clear I am not saying $MSTR is done running at all. My conviction is simply that $MARA presents an asymmetrical opportunity to get (fuck you) money from (irresponsible) option positions because it is an early adopter of the same strategy and is currently wildly undervalued by comparison 🤑 Hopefully you kept in mind what I said about $BTC not going down, it helps understand the premise. Also its true (facts no cap on god frfr), $BTC is just going to keep rising, its inevitable. Although if it has a big dipperino all this goes to shit... but its a bull market so we're throwing caution to the wind 🙃 \--- 🤯Catalysts If I can ask you to only read and consider one of these, really have a deep think 🧠 on the first one, the rest are bonuses: ₿itcoin - I was a skeptic years ago, now adoption is imminent. Bitcoin is the world's reserve currency. The biggest catalyst of all is the value of $BTC and the fact it's being adopted by EVERY person, EVERY business and EVERY country. The people drove the companies to invest and the companies are driving the countries to invest. Read it again. It's a rich man's world and they are going to want to ensure their wealth is secured. Without getting into the weeds you have to acknowledge fiat currency is inferior in some ways. Bitcoin's monetary value fluctuates, its use-cases expand but fundamentally its societal value is static and has remained intact since manifestation. No one knows what price $BTC is going to but I bet my dick it's much higher than 100k 🚀 Continued aggressive purchasing of $BTC, the sooner the better. Fred Theil needs to show he's committed to following the MaraStrategy model. Then he needs to utilize the holdings to purchase against for more $BTC and to expand operations because the main business needs to also benefit from the increased holding for shareholder value. Investors flooding in from both retail and institutional have been a huge driving factor of bitcoins positive price action. It is easier to access bitcoin now because you don't have to directly buy $BTC, $MSTR, $IBIT and now $MARA give simple, cheap and liquid ways to diversify in $BTC as fiat currency loses some "market share" to Bitcoin. Bitcoin commonly held by public companies/governments like the transition from paper to software it is undoubtedly going to be a critical investment in the future and holding out means losing out. Especially for public companies where cash holdings are scrutinized, do you really believe undiversified cash reserves are going to remain competitive? Chew on this, $BTC has increased in value as fiat currencies are depreciating and we have seen $MSTR has been outperforming a majority of companies, less than a year ago it was valued at less than 10B now its valued 10x higher at nearly 100B, they have 33B in $BTC alone. This isn't some small cap ssq run up, it's leveraged to the tits 🫦 but its achieving incredible value. Infinite Money Glitch 🤯 $BTC goes up, which means $MARA's holdings go up, profits per coin from mining goes up, stock goes up, allows them to buy more $BTC, $BTC goes up ♻️ $MARA has the perfect supporting business for this they are literally PRINTING MONEY, MONEY, MONEY, must be funny. There is a critical mass where companies and countries all start jumping in, buying $BTC and that causes $BTC to go fucking parabolic and $MARA to go marabolic -- its about to be a goddamn gold rush and picks ⛏️ are on sale. Small positives but worth noting \- Mining stocks are finally catching up to $BTC giving some extra momentum and volume \- China does the most mining in the world and its courts just confirmed $BTC is property and therefore is now legal for cities to own. \- With all Crypto rising $MARA can also mine other coins if it makes sense, they have pivoted before to coins providing better financial value. \- Saylor just tweeted "$MARA is a company on the #Bitcoin Standard." We have Daddy's approval 😏 \--- 🤓Numbers I had break my 🚫 no math on weekends rule to write this, ain't it sad? I am only going to go over $MARA compared to $MSTR, they have the most bitcoins and $MSTR is $MARA's biggest competitor. Numbers are from Nov 21st, assume a $BTC value of 98k. Premium calculations are taken from u/Jazzlike_Record_8915 on Reddit, they obviously fluctuate daily but I am just using them to illustrate a point. While the value of $MSTR is derived 99% from its $BTC holdings essentially making it just a proxy, $MARA has an operational business valued at $3B so lets factor that in to calculate the premium paid per Bitcoin. Holdings Value (Bitcoin): \- $MARA $3.191B - $MSTR $32.457B Gross Equity (Operating Company Value): \- $MARA $6.391B - $MSTR $32.957B Net Equity (After Debt): \- $MARA $4.972B - $MSTR 24B Market Cap: \- $MARA $7.92B - $MSTR $117B Premium per share: \- $MARA 1.59x - $MSTR 4.87x Implied price per $BTC \- $MARA $156k - $MSTR $477k 🤔 156k vs 477k per $BTC Ahaaaaahh! Do you like paying a 3x higher premium? I mean that shits just gonna keep inflating but my boy Fred, over at Marathon Digital Holdings, he's putting his business to work. Last report states $MARA mined 717 $BTC in Oct, thats > 23 a day and \~8.6k $BTC a year. If they didn't purchase a single bitcoin for a year their holding would still grow 20% from mining alone 🌱 Value wise there is no doubt $MARA > $MSTR. \--- 📊Technical Analysis The charts look fucking glorious, full on 🐂ish, every chart in the market is pointing to $BTC rising. I only know how to do bargain bin TA for short term moves, check this guy out for the yearly picture, hes a freaking 🧙‍♂️ at calling movement before it happens. [https://youtu.be/did1gn5LR0M?si=mApqSf4VrLcte2JK&t=518](https://youtu.be/did1gn5LR0M?si=mApqSf4VrLcte2JK&t=518) In his latest $MARA analysis he notes it to be incredibly bullish as it breaks above the current level ($24) toward $41 and if it can reach that it has a chance to really run ($100+), only 6 mins long and very thorough. \--- 😮‍💨Conclusion $MARA so hot right now 🥵 My apologies if the DD was a bit cooked, between the Twisted Teas and my self diagnosed ADHD, shit took a lot more time than I expected but it was worth it. If you want a better DD look at the $MSTR ones and apply the thesis, same same. Also I hand wrote this myself, no chatgpt, the least you could do is buy the stock or leave a fuckin' comment eh 🫵🧐 \--- ✊How to Play - Buy, Hold, Repeat. In my dreams I have a plan, my conviction is that $MARA hits at least $120 in 2025, but I'm not stopping there. You can try swing trading this shit but the moves will happen fast and sometimes in the pre-market, I think B&H is better. Plays ordered by highest profit potential: \- 💎Buy options now, make the maximum on degenerate bets, rinse, repeat, reinvest - 20x your portfolio. \- 💰Wait until $MARA starts deviating more from $MSTR and other mining companies, buy stock & 1 month out options and keep rolling profits into shares. \- 💵Buy stock now, take 25% out every time it doubles: $50, $75, $100, $125 \- 🤡Wait until its too late. \--- Life is short, lets make enough money now so we can spend the rest of it on our terms, I wouldn't have to work at all, I'd fool around and have a ball
Prepare for a significant NVDA pullback until the company reports more conclusively positive numbers on Blackwell	My breakdown touches upon: 1) Overall market context; 2) NVDA specific policy changes coming under Trump administration Overall market context is important, especially if we are headed for a correction or a consolidation period after the period of exuberance we have seen across asset classes. The overall market has largely yawned at potential tariffs, regulatory framework, and possibility of more export controls to Chinese market that could be enacted under a second Trump administration. Ex Goldman analyst Robin Brooks has alerted that markets are discounting the prospect of tariffs and how their effects could be really damaging for equities in 2025 ([https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42134031/markets-got-it-wrong-after-elections-prospects-of-tariffs-not-good-for-equities-vs-dollar-says-ex-goldman-sachs-analyst](https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42134031/markets-got-it-wrong-after-elections-prospects-of-tariffs-not-good-for-equities-vs-dollar-says-ex-goldman-sachs-analyst)). I don’t know whether there is hyperbole here, and if tariffs will actually cause pain for stocks, but it is at least worrying that the market has not seemed to care at all now that we know Trump will take office in January. Goldman Sachs’ forecast shows robust 2.5% growth for the US economy in 2025, with slightly worst results if Trump enacts a 10% tariff on all imports. ([https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/2025-outlook-will-tailwinds-trump-tariffs/OutlooksFinalTranscript.pdf](https://www.goldmansachs.com/pdfs/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/2025-outlook-will-tailwinds-trump-tariffs/OutlooksFinalTranscript.pdf)) Frankly, I believe Goldmans’ forecasting model is overly optimistic for two reasons. First, their estimates does not include a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imported goods, which Trump campaigned on. Nor does it include a scenario in which a large deportation program – both of which could have the effect of suppressing economic growth if implemented. Wage growth has largely slowed and consumers would feel fatigued if a new bout of inflation rips across the economy—this would definitely have an impact on earnings. On top of this, a weakening labor market seems to threaten consumers’ comfortability with rising prices again. One could argue that Trump’s immigration policies, including his plan for a large deportation initiative could see a tighter labour market, and rising wages that could counter a weakening labor market and slowing wage growth. But it’s important to be cognizant of the fact that tariffs would happen instantly, whereas deportations take time, and their effects would not be felt immediately throughout the economy. Now that I’ve covered the overall market context, let’s get specific on NVDA. Since NVDA reported earnings last week, the stock price has seesawed in pre-market trading as well as during trading hours. There has been plenty of pontification by market analysts either discounting or raising concerns about slowing sales growth and lower guidance going forward. The stock ended last week largely down, with significant selling happening on Friday. But I want to focus on what’s in store for NVDA under a the administration. Howard Lutnick, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump as Secretary of Commerce and USTR, has signaled his commitment to intensifying export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies to China. Lutnick’s statements and policy positions suggest a focus on maintaining U.S. dominance in critical technologies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, as a countermeasure to China's rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and military applications. In a recent interview, Lutnick described semiconductors as "the cornerstone of America's technological edge" and emphasized that "export controls are not merely economic tools but strategic weapons to protect our national security." He has voiced strong support for continuing and expanding the Biden administration's measures, including targeting AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing tools. Under Lutnick's guidance, policies could further restrict sales of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips to China. He has highlighted concerns about these chips enabling advanced AI capabilities that could be leveraged by the Chinese military. Lutnick stated, "We cannot afford to let cutting-edge American technology become a tool for our adversaries," signaling potential restrictions on Nvidia and other U.S. tech firms developing high-performance semiconductors. The implications of Lutnick's policies could be significant. Stricter controls on exports, including modifications to loopholes that allowed companies like Nvidia to tailor products for the Chinese market, might accelerate China's efforts toward semiconductor self-sufficiency. U.S. firms could face reduced revenues, but Lutnick argues that "short-term sacrifices are essential for long-term strategic security”. In addition, we cannot discount the Biden administration making last minute policy moves to box in opponents and make it harder for the new incoming administration to deviate. This has already been reported by Reuters ([https://www.reuters.com/technology/chamber-commerce-sees-new-us-export-crackdown-china-email-says-2024-11-22/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chamber-commerce-sees-new-us-export-crackdown-china-email-says-2024-11-22/)). According to this report, the Biden administration is set to enact new regulations could make up to another 200 Chinese chip companies subject to a trade restriction list that bars most U.S. suppliers from shipping goods to the targeted firms. This news broke on Friday, but ten minutes before the market closed. If this is correct, it will put price pressure on the semiconductor sector, which could affect NVDA as well. I really do believe given this context, we are entering a period where NVDA could suffer, at least until we have more clarity on tariffs, export control regulations, and Blackwell sales numbers which won’t be reported on for some time. The largest NVDA drawdowns that have happened recently (March-April; June-August; August-September) averaged anywhere between 21-30%. Smaller, more muted corrections have also occurred of around 10% in the stock since. A similar effect here (10% or so from its high of 152.88 would bring shares close to 137, and break through a key support level. A larger plunge could see it closer to 120 or below. All in all, a dip here would be a good opportunity to buy up shares at a discounted price. I will be holding cash for buying on what I believe will be significant dips coming in the coming weeks, in the lead-up to inauguration and what will be a flurry of announcements as Trump will want to signal change and do so in true Trump fashion: loudly.
Dont sleep on $toast	This company is a sleeping giant, I'm sure you've been seeing the name more and more at restaurants. By far the most user-friendly platform for the service industry. Toast operates within the restaurant tech and point-of-sale (POS) industry, which has seen significant growth recently. * Digital Transformation in Restaurants: As more restaurants modernize their operations, there's an increasing shift toward integrated POS solutions that handle everything from payments to inventory management, customer engagement, and analytics. It does it all, not just payments. * Shift Toward Cloud Solutions: As the industry moves toward cloud-based systems, Toast’s cloud-native platform stands to gain more traction. Its subscription-based model also provides recurring revenue. https://preview.redd.it/z107a4m7nx2e1.jpg?width=2518&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa71469205612ba208c62c5047bc956b21329f6c
McDonald’s Espresso Machine Meltdown: $193M Burnt Nuggets or Billion-Dollar Golden Arches Play?	This is weird. McDonald’s (MCD) is scrambling faster than a breakfast egg because their Melitta espresso machines just got yeeted out of every U.S. store. Safety concerns = no lattes, no cappuccinos, no mocha frappes. 🍮 A total 13,500 stores affected = $193M in financial black holes. But wait—it gets worse. If they don’t fix this fast, this could be McDonald’s ice cream machine scandal 2.0—with espresso. The Drama You know how they’re always like, “Sorry, the ice cream machine’s broken”? Well, now the espresso machines are dead too. McDonald’s had to RIP them out of every U.S. location because of some “unspecified safety concern.” I mean, who’s getting hurt by a cappuccino? Karen’s third-degree burn from asking for “extra hot”? 🔥☕ The Numbers Here’s where it gets wild, fam. McDonald’s serves 27.2M customers a day in the U.S.: • 810K espresso drinks lost per day = $2.4M/day in lost sales. • People skipping meals because no coffee = another $1.2M/day gone. • That’s $153M in lost profit if this drags on for 60 days. • Oh, and replacing the machines? Another $40.5M. Total burn? $193M. That’s nearly **13% of their quarterly
NVDA may see red next week	This isn’t bear porn and I’m going to get flamed for this one, but I think NVDA has a red week coming. Earnings were very good, beating on both EPS and rev, but guidance came in conservative. Gross margins were also down slightly to 74.6% from 75.1% in the previous quarter(still insane numbers). The issue with this slight deceleration is that the stock is priced for exponential growth like we’ve been seeing for a couple years now. That ridiculous growth may be slowing down a little for now, and their new Blackwell chips are still rolling out. We don’t know what kind of revenue those will bring in yet. The stock got plenty of price hikes post earnings, but nothing too significant(160-170’s for the most part). It just seems like the train is slowing down a bit. As far as the chart goes, it has tried to break and hold $149-150 7 times since November 6. It briefly broke over the day after earnings, but was quickly bitch slapped back below that threshold. IMO, this earnings report was the catalyst that it needed to get over that resistance, and it has clearly failed to do so. So the question is: where do we go from here? We’re right on the trend line that it’s held since September 6. We could go higher, but earnings failed to impress the market, and it doesn’t seem like we have enough gas to pump it higher just yet. We saw some significant selling pressure today without any buyers stepping in EOD. I think that trend continues Monday and we break the trend line. That is a solid red daily candle today, and I expect to see a gap down and another candle just like that on Monday. I would love to see it hit the 100 day EMA(right around $130) and bounce from there. Thats definitely the spot to load up on calls if you’re still bullish(which you should be). One more risk over the next few days and weeks: geopolitical tensions. Normally we just ignore everything Putin says, but the escalation of launching an Oreshnik ICBM and hitting Dnipro can not be ignored. NATO is holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss this event. There have been many escalations recently, with multiple countries now directly involved in the conflict. Monitor it and tread carefully.
$U - A potential game engine comeback story.	Wanted to try it out so here's my first 'analysis'! Let me know if my points are valid and if my structuring is good or not. Firstly for some background information, $U or Unity Software Inc is primarily game engine company where although producing a relatively good game engine, has made some incredibly poor choices - such as mass layoffs and diverging from their engine to focus more on advertising, merging with Iron Source. The company peaked in value November '21 at almost $200 (USD) where the company began merging with other companies, months after the decently successful IPO - the first merger being with Weta Digital. After that peak, it was all downhill from there tumbling into the $40s over the course of two years, where Unity made gaming history by announcing the runtime fee. This lead to the regarded CEO resigning (the CEO that once ran EA, go figure) and most of management being fired, with major restructuring a few months after occurring under interim CEO Jim Whitehurst and then Matthew Bromberg, where they promised to work on what truly mattered, the engine itself. In recent times, Unity has made great strides in their engine with massive new features on the way - promising better performance (they don't say it, but they subtly hint it in their advertising that Unity is the engine for good performance, as opposed to Unreal), and new innovative uses of that big A word that investors climax over. They announced Unity 6, their big update and reversion back to a normal naming system as opposed to their weird yearly naming scheme (which was objectively bad for pressuring new releases on a yearly schedule), and announced 6.1 with some features currently in alpha releases, and some credible promises for later big versions which they appear committed on. Overall, they seem to be on a comeback, at least on the engine side. Financially, they've been recovering from the whole runtime debacle (around Q4-23) where the next quarter being their first missed earnings for a while, by quite a bit as well. Where only recently in Q2-24 have they started to beat the target and are on track to go above $0 per share in the next two years. In addition, as a result of the cancellation of the runtime fee and the new CEO reaching out to businesses and the community, growth has been re-sparked. Moreover, their profits from their engine have increased 5% year over year and is still going strong. In the recent Q3 earnings their total profits in EBITDA is over 10% over their initial estimate of $70-80m at $92m. My verdict, is that the company under its new leadership has shifted its focus towards the user. They are focussing on updating their engine without hurting users using older features, and are in the testing phases of new AI technologies for both advertising (reducing ROI and boosting user acquisition + monetary gain), and game development (with two AI systems for both helping developers make games, and running AI within games for either NPCs or game systems). Thus, after a 'company reset' they seem to be on the track to make a profit and become the defacto game engine - one that won't be made fun of crappy games. Disclaimer - this is not financial advice. I'm a game developer and I enjoy using their engine (which is how I can say the engine is getting far better in recent releases for engine users), I recently got into trading/investing and I read these analysis posts or bets, and I decided to try one out myself. How'd I do? Edit: MB forgor to say my position. I'm dirt poor so I put $70 in Unity at around $17usd with 5x leverage... if that means anything to u guys?
I Think PayPal is Still Very Undervalued	11/22/24 As the title states, I believe PayPal Holdings, Inc. is still very undervalued. With a YTD return of +41.60%, and 5-year return of -16.46%, there is still a lot of room to recover. PayPal Holdings, Inc. is a digital payment and transaction company that connects consumers to businesses worldwide. On top of this, they have a large presence in the P2P payment market. They are essentially a digital wallet allowing you to store all of your payment and banking information. They also provide loans to businesses and individuals through their buy now pay later program. Through their facilitation of digital payments, they have a presence in 200 countries and receive tons of traffic. In 2023, PayPal alone processed $1.53 trillion dollars in payment volume, a 12% increase YoY. This is an extremely large and well-established company with 27,200 employees, bringing in north of $30 billion in revenue. Main Subsidiaries [PayPal's Main Subsidiaries ](https://preview.redd.it/uewklqydgi2e1.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0cbd3ddd160b9a994e23123abf51dbf7cd53668) Venmo Highlights Total Payment Volume - $276 billion. 13.1 % increase YoY 2023 Net income - $1.1 billion. 18.2% increase YoY Very fast-growing platform displaying consistent user growth, TPV growth, and active account growth. Venmo is currently only in the US, which I think represents a good potential opportunity for expansion into foreign markets. [Venmo Annual Users](https://preview.redd.it/z0e1vglgli2e1.png?width=409&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea56768256c9b5faaa3c38c6c1ffa398be30630e) The market size for digital transactions is estimated to grow at a double-digit CAGR from 2024-2032. The largest growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region. PayPal is able to capitalize on this by their facilitation of cross-border transactions. Just think of the increase in digital transactions you've experienced in the past 5 years. Cash is becoming obsolete; everything is turning digital. This is great for PayPal as 90% of their revenue comes from transactions. [Digital Payment Market $Global Market Insights$](https://preview.redd.it/hyrilx1yhi2e1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdf2abebba434c3c075aece53b3dd96cc0b1b6de) [PayPal Total Payment Volume 2014-2023](https://preview.redd.it/qnt6xg38mi2e1.png?width=584&format=png&auto=webp&s=c37ca8b3b064baaa5f2d9cff0ad7604283b99671) Increases in digital payment transactions demonstrates a positive correlation with PayPal TPV. PayPal Holdings, Inc. Q3 2024 Highlights Transaction Revenue - $7,067 billion. 6% increase YoY Total Revenue - $7,847 billion. 6% increase YoY Total Payment Transactions - $6,631 billion. 6% increase YoY Transactions Per Active Account - 61.4. 9% increase YoY Total Payment Volume - $422,641 billion. 9% increase YoY Conclusion - I believe the market for digital payments and transactions is very young, bound to experience tremendous growth in the coming years. As the dominant player in this market, PayPal Holdings, Inc. is incredibly well poised to grow. It is simple, the more transactions that take place, the more money the company makes. While this is a very competitive market, if we focus on the fundamentals of the company, all of the answers are there. They have a very good balance sheet and good management that is taking initiatives to grow and expand their brand. All of their numbers represent consistent growth YoY, and this is very likely to continue\\. At a current price of $86.51\\, I believe this company will soar easily back to the $100+ range and beyond.
MARA vs MSTR vs HUT: Bitcoin treasury comparisons	ERROR: type should be string, got "https://preview.redd.it/6dhobb43hi2e1.png?width=971&format=png&auto=webp&s=362823b3680fec6fb1b8186bf1717e49f46c2920\n\nI made a comparison of the top btc-linked equities who own the most btc... a) MSTR, b) MARA, and c) HUT ... i want to preface this by saying all BTC-linked equities deserve some premia in a bull market. The question is how much & when.\n\nMSTR was trading at $478K per bitcoin yesterday morning... so yesterday's correction was good news... it re-rated... to <$400K per bitcoin... i have a feeling the premia is gona expand again though and Saylor will tap the convert markets 3-4x more from now until the Spring. The stock can double from here. Because MSTR's software operations are winding down, it justifies its premia by promising it will be a sort of 'bitcoin bank' in the future. TBD.\n\nMARA was never really known on Wall Street for its HODL, but since the shares were flat as BTC went from $60K to $90K, the HODL now puts it in the top 3 BTC treasury plays. In the past, 80-90% of MARA's market cap was attributable to its operating company: the mining facilities. That has now changed. It's become more & more of a BTC proxy. This is a monumental shift. I didn't believe it 100% until I crunched the numbers, and looked at their latest debt offering... MARA is a top 2 mining/HODL play. It's a new landscape for miners.\n\nHUT was always known as the classic HODL play if you didn't want to touch MSTR... especially as BTC ETFs didn't have any options contracts. If you wanted levered long BTC exposure, you had to either play MSTR or HUT. When MSTR got out of control, traders looked to call options on HUT to get that levered long exposure. HUT is still the biggest HODL play in the mining arena, and due to the recent underperformance, it's also the best value (in terms of cheapest price per BTC). HUT shareholders have also been much less diluted than MARA shareholders, and HUT's float is much tighter than MARA's. Furthermore, HUT's short intrst is double MARA's, creating extra volatility. I suspect the options market on HUT will begin to price this in as HUT shares begin to move again, but nobody knows. They can always sink too. HUT's smaller size has the added benefit of making it a more realistic M&A target (for both corporates and PE), which is always a nice uplift due to the premia often paid to shareholders in a buyout scenario. I like both HUT and MARA at these levels.\n\n"
$PACS a potential x3 bagger	First DD, not sure I am doing it right TL;DR: Risky bet on recovery of $PACS after potential dismissal of covid-era fraud I've been long PACS for a while Positions: (see screenshot) Excellent DD by another regard: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1fgnku5/pacs\_prestige\_acquisition\_finalized\_so\_earnings/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1fgnku5/pacs_prestige_acquisition_finalized_so_earnings/) $PACS - skilled nursing facilities (SNF) assisted living facilities in the USA (in short Nursing home) Provides senior care and independent facilities, buy/lease real-estate for health care related properties Founded in Utah in 2013, IPO in 2024 Similar company: $ENSG Revenue: Coming from leasing facilities and insurance reimbursement based on the number of residents Finalized acquisition by taking over operations of Prestige Care’s entire SNF portfolio i.e 56 facilities across 6 states and added 2889 skilled nursing beds Occupancy rate of 94% for all facilities they have managed for 18 months Why PACS? Hindenburg research made a claim that PACS is inflating their numbers by abusing covid era waiver to make more money as well as misleading investors with wrong CMS ratings. The claim is that the same revenue cannot be achieved and possibly fraud What's the waiver about? It allowed beneficiaries to receive Medicare-covered SNF care without a prior hospital stay of at least three days. It expired with the end of the federal Public Health Emergency (PHE) on May 11, 2023 => PACS have seen a sharp decline after those allegations leading to more than 60% decline, below it's IPO price! Furthermore, they delayed their earnings because of that only releasing preliminary earnings: [https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/pacs-group-provides-preliminary-third-quarter-operational-metrics](https://ir.pacs.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/pacs-group-provides-preliminary-third-quarter-operational-metrics) So: \* Based on it they are still beating expectations and they stated that they are aware of those allegations and working with government entities and another 3rd party audit to make sure that they were always compliant. \* Fraud allegations are not related to cooked books but rather using Covid-era to pump up revenue \* Covid era waiver is long gone but revenue is still up This could go both ways: if the claim made by Hindenburg research was actually wrong PACS could easily go back to $40 (i.e almost doubling current price) If it was indeed true, expect PACS a loss of revenue in the next earning release or two but the nursing facilities and occupancies aren't going away. This isn't financial advice, I am just a regard who likes stocks https://preview.redd.it/iq033ejqai2e1.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=368e918a434d27c7709e27925821823d73dfdd51
Big win with $hims, FDA didn’t side with pharma like everyone thought they would💊📈	Background: * GLP-1 Demand : Wegovy (Novo) and Zepbound are dominating the branded weight-loss markets but face demand that they cannot keep up with. * Trump’s Legacy: Under the Trump administration, rules around drug compounding were clarified, allowing pharmacies to fill gaps during shortages. Now, these policies will be central to ongoing lawsuits ([see this executive order](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-ensuring-essential-medicines-medical-countermeasures-critical-inputs-made-united-states/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=ncl_amplify&utm_campaign=230724-agenda47_returning_production_of_essential_medicines_back_to_america_and_ending_bidens_pharmaceutical_shortages&utm_content=ncl-7CGRrbfsEr&_nlid=7CGRrbfsEr&_nhids=NJKu9Lb)). * FDA issues: The FDA pulled tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) from the shortage list in October but has since walked back on this after legal challenges, extending the compounding window significantly. Why It Matters: * HIMS’ Edge: FDA uncertainty + Trump-era compounding policies = opportunity for HIMS to take over affordable GLP-1 market. * GLP-1 Customer base: There are even more GLP-1 customers than expected which leaves a huge opportunity to take advantage of. There is [over 6% of the U.S.](https://www.kff.org/health-costs/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-may-2024-the-publics-use-and-views-of-glp-1-drugs/#:~:text=Overall%2C%2012%25%20of%20adults%20say,Obesity%20Drugs%20for%20Racial%20Disparities) taking a variant of it currently. * Hims Undervalued: Hims is currently significantly undervalued due to the risk of lawsuits and competitors. My research into their competitors showed that they are not great considering some like RO health require a $145 month subscription to be prescribed GLP-1 which is another $300 a month subscription on top of that vs HIMS being a flat rate $200 a month which includes free chatting with a doctor anytime. * Hims In-house Compounding Advantage: Hims acquired their own [compounding pharmacy](https://news.hims.com/newsroom/building-our-pharmacy-operations-with-the-customer-in-mind) to produce their drugs. This allows them to control the quality and ensure their customers get what they order which is important with compounded drugs. They recently got a [global head of quality & safety](https://investors.hims.com/news/news-details/2024/Hims--Hers-Appoints-Tenured-Pharmaceutical-Regulatory-and-Quality-Experts-to-Key-Leadership-Positions/default.aspx) who has over 30 years in pharma and FDA so the FDA cannot say it is unsafe to compound. * Big Pharma Hit: Lilly and Novo stocks have been tumbling for the past few months due to the wavering support for Medicare/Medicaid covering their drugs for anti-obesity which is now very unlikely to pass with RFK being staunchly against it. It is still possible to get it if you have an added health benefit like Obesity + diabetes etc. Takeaway: * FDA delays + Trump rules = lifeline for $HIMS. The compounded drug wave could crash if regulators tighten up but the price is already undervalued. This becomes more unlikely further into the Trump presidency as cutting off a European company that has the GDP of Denmark aligns with their goals. Oh, and Hims added meal replacements today. Branching out and adding more streams of revenue that align with their goals is a +1 in my book. TL;DR: Hims & Hers ($HIMS) was up 11% as the FDA delayed its decision on Eli Lilly’s ($LLY[) Zepbound and Mounjaro shortage status](https://www.barrons.com/articles/eli-lilly-zepbound-wegovy-hims-hers-stock-8e6d9861). This pause keeps compounders going and sets precedence for HIMS when Semaglutide is removed from shortage list. There is also Trumps past executive order which will most likely be pushed through to this situation if the court cases are dragged out. European companies like Novo would be significantly impacted by this and the trump administration will take this as a win. Positions: 1500 shares & 10 calls @$20 1/16/26
Keep an eye on NKE	We haven’t heard anything about it in a while. The last earnings call was pretty bad. Sales tanked 10% yoy and EPS dropped 26%. Over the past few years, management decided it was a good idea to focus more on the direct-to-consumer business and took product away from store shelves. This has proven to be a poor decision, as that business has dropped 13%. On September 19, Nike announced Elliot Hill will be the new CEO. The market loved the move as the stock popped about 12%, but it has since sold off to retest the lows. Hill is expected to get Nike back on track, but that will take time. Bill Ackman has upped his stake in NKE recently, going from 2% to 11% of his total portfolio, and Travis Knight(Phil Knight’s son) acquired 3,180,000 shares 3 weeks ago, increasing his stake by 170%. New CEO Elliot Hill also bought 64,000 shares last month. As far as the chart goes, it’s at a very important level. The $68-70 range has been crucial since before the pandemic. It was resistance in 2015 and 2018, and support in 2018 once it broke through. It blasted through this level during covid, but that was an extreme circumstance. You can see it was also support recently in August after the earnings sell off. It has since bounced but may be testing the support one more time for a double bottom. I think it’s going to be very difficult for it to break through this level. Nike is the premier athletic brand. They have more revenue that LULU, ON cloud, and Adidas combined. They’ll figure their shit out, and will get back on track. I included the daily chart as well. I was looking for a retest and hold of $70 to confirm the double bottom, but today had a really candle. Looking to tomorrow to see if that trend continues. I doubt they’ll crush earnings this time, but there could be a small run into the report on 12/19, some $80 and $85 calls for 12/20 in hopes of that run and to play the IV as well. BOL if tailing.

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